Tom O’Neil at Gold Derby has run down a list of the potential nominees. He has starred those he thinks have the best shot. Worth noting: Tom’s favorite performance is Viggo Mortensen in The Road:
BEST ACTOR
FRONT-RUNNERS
• Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
Nicolas Cage, “Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orleans”
• George Clooney, “Up in the Air”
Matt Damon, “The Informant!”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Nine”
Robert De Niro, “Everybody’s Fine”
• Colin Firth, “A Single Man”
• Morgan Freeman, “Invictus”
• Viggo Mortensen, “The Road”
Jeremy Renner, “The Hurt Locker”
Michael Stuhlbarg, “A Serious Man”POSSIBLE
Sharlto Copley, “District 9″
Robert Downey Jr., “Sherlock Holmes”
Ben Foster, “The Messenger”
Hal Holbrook, “That Evening Sun”
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, “(500) Days of Summer”
Tobey Maguire, “Brothers”
James McAvoy, “The Last Station”
Joaquin Phoenix, “Two Lovers”
Sam Rockwell, “Moon”
Michael Sheen, “The Damned United”LONG SHOTS
Paul Bettany, “Creation”
Michael Cera, “Youth in Revolt”
Clive Owen, “The Boys Are Back”
Mark Wahlberg, “The Lovely Bones”
63 Responses for "Best Actor Race Breakdown"
Don’t know “Crazy Hearts” may have a “Tender Mercies” once again, IMO, but Bridges is his generation (Pacino, De Niro, Hoffman, Nicholson, etc) most underrated actor and he deserve any reconigtion. And I adore Maggie Gylenhaal
I can’t wait for Bad Lieutenant. Should be proof that Nicolas Cage ISN’T a terrible actor, he just needs to work with real masters like Herzog who know how to conduct his energy. Personally I’m looking at Clooney, Bridges, Renner, Firth, and Mortensen for the big five.
So what about Johnny Depp? is he for real out of the race?
Nic Cage as a front-runner LMAO! He’d be lucky to be in the “possible” if not a Long shot. This is an art house release, semi-remake which might even be laughably bad. No one a front runner. And the De Niro’s performance looks to be light. And won’t have a chance in hell to hold with Viggo, Firth, Bridges, Freeman, and Clooney.
Wasn’t there a film with Michael Caine sometime this year? What was it? Was it ever shown? His performances are always interesting.
@Mark. Harry Brown coming out this month, I think next week.
Its been a long time since I’ve posted on AD but haven’t we learned to never… ever… underestimate Daniel Day Lewis?
Everyone who has seen Everybody’s Fine as already debunked De Niro as any kind of awards contender, and Cage? ..Frontrunner? In what universe?
Bridges, Clooney, Day-Lewis, Firth and Freeman, with Damon and Renner just on the outside, those are the frontrunners.
Youth In Revolt is 2010…right?
I don’t think Daniel Day-Lewis should be considered a frontrunner just because he’s Daniel Day-Lewis. He isn’t nominated for an Oscar every time he acts. Don’t get me wrong, I can’t wait to see Nine, but I’ll be surprised if he is on par with his work in There Will Be Blood or My Left Foot. It just doesn’t seem like his most demanding character.
michael cera is a great, professional personality but youth in revolt and oscar do not go hand in hand…and it got pushed to 2010.
i agree nic cage shouldn’t be a front runner but bad lieutennant got mad good reviews in toronto…almost every reviewer singled out cage’s performance. so don’t be too surprised by a last minute contender…
secretly, i would love joquain phoenix and anyone from two lovers to slip in…it was such a wonderful film that is only going to be forgotten because of a ridiculously early release…
The only ones that seem “locks” are the ones in movies that could be best picture nominees. That would be:
RENNER
STUHLBARG
Add one handsome movie star who always plays himself:
CLOONEY
So who gets the next two spots? Throw in one respected old school actor making a come back… maybe…
DENIRO
And one actor who should have won previously:
ROCKWELL
Nobody is talking about INVICTUS or MATT DAMON. Movie hasn’t even come out yet. BRIDGES and MORTENSEN are always good, but they need to be in a “great” movie to get the award. If the Academy Awards are going to become “American Idol” then first time fashionista directors and their actors have a chance. I don’t see it. Probably knock Firth off the list for that reason.
Anonymous- Matt Damon is being talked about for lead actor, but for the Informant! not Invictus. He is supporting for Invictus.
my opinion
Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
George Clooney, “Up in the Air”
Colin Firth, “A Single Man”
Morgan Freeman, “Invictus”
Matt Damon, “The Informant!”
and the last winner should be Jeff Bridges or Colin Firth
Put Firth on the list. He’s a dead cert. I’m thinking Firth and Clooney, followed by Renner and Bridges. One of Freeman and Day-Lewis will likely take the fifth slot, but if neither connect, that may leave room for Mortensen or Stuhlbarg (or even unknown quantity Wahlberg).
Best actor looks like a packed category this year
Does anyone else think the lukewarm response to The Informant! has damaged Damon’s chances?
I do, Noah. He was widely praised, but the film has no buzz. I think his chances are slim.
It breaks my heart that Ben Wishaw only appears here and there. He is fantastic in Bright Star. What a wonderful film.
But this list of Leading men is quite staggering.
Matt Damon was great, but then again he quite often is and almost always gets overlooked, trend?…
Here’s my NGNG five:
George Clooney
Jeremy Renner
Ben Wishaw
Michael Stuhlburg
Max Records
Absurd, I know.
Oh, and I include Clooney because at this point it would quite simply be stupid not to.
Kholby, I was just going to mention Ben Whishaw.
I certainly didn’t like Bright Star as much as you, in fact, I would go so far as to say that I hated it, and I thought Abbie Cornish sucked. But Whishaw was the best thing about it, he was a much better character and was played with such skill and depth, he was the reason I didn’t walk out halfway through.
I haven’t seen enough of the other performances to really go out and say he should be nominated, but of the names being thrown around, he would be up there for me.
Of the performances I have seen, I would say Rockwell in Moon, Michael Sheen in The Damned United and Renner in THL were probably my favourites, but I don’t think any of them will end up being nominated.
Neither will my favourite performance of the year, from my favourite film of the year – Joseph Gordon-Levitt in (500) days of Summer…..
Can’t wait for NINE and INVICTUS and THE ROAD and I hope all 3 of the male performances in those films live up to my expectations.
Curse living in England, everything takes so much longer….
matt damon was the best thing about the informant! … i think his chances are still good.
you are all underestimating clooney. his performance really does drive the film. having seen both up in the air and a single man, i would be surprised if there is anyone else who can compete in that two person race…
Clooney
Firth
Day-Lewis
Firth
Bridges
Jen you have Firth twice….
Looking at that list, all I can say is deja vu all over again. The only one missing is Jack Nicholson. All white guys, no Hispanics, no blacks, no Asians. The same guys….which tells me one thing: they have good agents and their agents are worth every dime. these guys are never without work.
Correction: Morgan Freeman is the token black in the list.
I too feel Crazy Heart might be this year’s Tender Mercies, which only means great things for the film. I like both Bridges and Gyllenhaal, so I’m there.
Why are so many people underestimating Daniel Day-Lewis? I read a comment that said his role in Nine is not that demanding. I’m sorry, but singing is pretty demanding for anyone. That on top of the fact that they got DDL to sing and the word is he’s great.
Nice to see that Renner is still being mentioned, but I do think this race is getting too crowded for all eyes to be on him in the end. And I doubt Matt Damon will be pulling off a double nod here. My money is on him for Ivictus in the supporting category.
Rockwell, Renner, Stuhlbarg, Mortensen, Firth, even though I haven’t seen the last two performances yet, and in pretty much that order, at least for the first three. Rockwell doesn’t have any huge, get-the-Oscar-for-a-couple-of-these scenes in the film, but rather creates a series of alternating and nuanced ones that fit together perfectly.
I saw a sneak peak of Nine and Daniel Day-Lewis is FANTASTIC. His singing voice is great, and he’s in nearly every scene of the movie. It’s a big role. He might not take the big prize, considering he just won, but the Golden Globe for Best Actor Musical/Comedy is certainly plausible.
I’m just a little underwhelmed witht his category this year. Not really an exciting year for Best Actor…
Troy, could it be because these are the same players we see at the awards every fricking year. What about the young guy in Coppola’s Tetro? He was a revelation, I don’t know his name, but very watchable.
tom hardy in bronson should get consideration he is amazing in that movie.
thanks, JOE G!
Firth
Clooney
Mortensen
Day-Lewis
Bridges
Renner did such a beautiful job in THL. I would be quite sad if such a breakthrough performance did not get nominated, yet I fear that will be the case with so many big names in the mix.
Joseph Gordon-Levitt for 500 Days of Summer! Such an under rated performance. I really think he should get in. He gave such an honest performance. I think I’m going to predict him despite the lack of love for him.
My prediction for the nominees in no order..
Firth
Freeman
Clooney
Renner
Bridges
Daniel Day-Lewis
Jeff Bridges
Colin Firth
George Clooney
Robert De Niro
I think it will come down to being between Clooney and Firth in the end.
My money’s on Bridges. The man is *extremely* overdue. And let’s be honest; who *wouldn’t* be thrilled to see the man on that stage giving his acceptance speech?
The Nic Cage as a front runner made me spit out my drink. That film is so bad, it is good. It is a Death Wish type performance. One you make fun of and watch over and over and over and over again but does NOT get an Oscar nom.
Christ, I cannot wait to see Bad Lieutenant this Friday. So excited. That would be awesome if Nicolas Cage actually comes through with an Oscar worthy, or at least Golden Globe worthy, performance in the film. Harvey Keitel was certainly snubbed in the ‘92 version of Bad Lieutenant.
I’m running with
Geroge Clooney
Jeremy Renner
Michael Sthulbarg
Morgan Freeman
Viggo Mortensen
I will be DEEPLY annoyed and disappointed if Jeremy Renner doesn’t pull out a nomination. He was a lock this summer… but I know, that was the summer.
The Dude abides.
Honestly though, this is the same man from Seabiscuit to Fat City to Last Picture show, etc. He can do anything.
Bridges-if it comes out this year, I heard that’s an iffy
Clooney
Renner
Viggo
Firth
I can’t comment on what I haven’t seen, but all I can say is don’t count out Lewis. I am not head-over-heals for Freeman though.
If anyone can be replaced it’s Renner though, I still think Viggo will pull the nomination out. Sadly, I think Damon will be left out and get a supporting nod for Invictus.
I’m surprised to find myself agreeing with Tom O’Neil on Viggo.
Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart (winner?)
George Clooney – Up in the Air
Colin Firth – A Single Man
Viggo Mortensen – The Road (winner?)
Jeremy Renner – The Hurt Locker
If Jeff Bridges will win, the Academy will win more credibility. One of the greatest actors of history and one who didn’t want to be a star. Bravo, Jeff¡
If him and Michelle Pffeifer win it will be the best Oscars in 20 years¡ ahhh
And yes, JoeyG, Joseph Gordon Hewitt made one of the best performances of the year¡¡
Now, I know he hasn’t had much buzz lately, but how come generally-considered-due-and-well-respected-actor-playing-a-great-historical-figure-in-a-biopic Paul Bettany is listed with the long shots, when he should be near the top?
Erik, because Creation was garbage….
rt (62) and imdb (73) put it at least somewhere in the Reader territory, so it can’t be that bad. And even some of the negative reviews praise Bettany’s performance. But it hasn’t got a firm release date yet, and apparently Newmarket just picked it up, so again Ilearned something from the internet right there.
Paul Bettany as the long shot and Nicholas Cage as one of the main contenders. There must be something wrong with this world…
I find it amazing that anyone would regard Morgan Freeman as a “token” anything. Freeman is an actor many of us admire and respect. Get past the damn color thing already it’s getting boring. Freeman has a body of work that any actor would envy. Calling him a “token” just demeans everything the man has accomplished.
BEN WISHAW…..GREAT ACTING IN A GREAT FILM!!!
Anyone doubting Viggo Mortensen this year for an Oscar nomination/win just hasn’t seen The Road yet, or don’t want to see that particular film due to its subject matter. He was outstanding.
Clooney is locked and loaded. Done deal.
Renner,Mortensen and Firth are near locks.
Fight for 5th spot between Stuhlbarg, DDL, Freeman, Bridges and RDJ (if Holmes isn`t all about Law praise like TMR that garnered Law his first Oscar nom and zip for Damon, the titular Mr Ripley).
Tom Hardy upset would be sweet, though.
Bridges, yes. Clooney, yes. Firth, yes. Freeman, probably. But now we have Renner’s searing Iraq soldier being upstaged by yet ANOTHER searing Iraq soldier Ben Foster, who is quickly gathering momentum for the just-opened 100% Ripe Tomatoes “Messenger.” He’s better known (X-Men, Pandorum, Six Feet Under, etc.) than Renner. Are we gonna have TWO Iraq soldiers duking it out? I dunno about that.
And why haven’t we seen even a smidgen of Day Lewis’s Italian accent in promos?
Unfortunately, I heard that “Nine” is “a musical disaster.” By someone who should know…
And “The Road” is an unbearably depressing, LONG, dark movie and I doubt the Academy is gonna pop that one in their DVD players and stick with its’ dreary two hours +….Viggo is really on the outside of this. And it’s not a performance as much as it is stunt work.
The Academy doesn’t like stunt work. Even though they have nominated it in the past..
Oscilloscope, which has “The Messenger” and is firing on all cylinders for it. And “Hurt Locker” REALLY needs a BIG campaign now. And esp. Renner does…
As Anthony Mackie has fallen off the charts in Supp. for HL, so might Renner, unfortunately…
Stephen Holt. I doubt you have seen this movie and certainly possibly have not read the book.’
What stunt work. Ain’t no such thing in this movie about a father trying to put his son out of harms way. It’s all about love. Everyman for every child.
The performance by Mr. Mortensen is outstanding He lives the part.
And don’t forget the young man who plays his son. Kodi-Smit-Mcphee. The two are brilliant.
Stephen Holt:
I don’t think there is room for another Iraq war film this year, as optimistic as some bloggers are for another lesser-known one to ride the coattails of HURT LOCKER. That’s why GREEN ZONE moved out of HURT LOCKER’S way and will release next year, as well as at least one or two other major contenders (one of which is another war film). No other actor has put in such a soul-wrenching performance in a film that was obviously very difficult to make. Renner is receiving multiple “break through” actor awards. So I hardly think he has been “upstaged.” Looks like people are clearing the stage for him, whether bloggers notice it or not.
‘…the just-opened 100% Ripe Tomatoes “Messenger.”’
No, it’s not. Check again.
Erik, I didn’t realise that Creation wasn’t out yet, it came out over here in the UK in September and sank without trace and was really slated in the press.
I think that the list given in the article is evidence of how crowded the Best Actor race is this year and even if Bettany is getting some praise for his performance, I would defy that common phrase ‘nobody knows anything’ and say that I KNOW Paul Bettany will not be nominated. I feel as confident about saying that as I would saying that GI JOE will NOT be nominated for Best Picture.
However, I do agree with you on something. The world is not right if Nicolas Cage is being seriously considered for anything.
Crazy Heart trailer up on Apple
http://www.apple.com/trailers/fox_searchlight/crazyheart/
Firth is an absolute lock. I’ve always liked him too so I’m very happy to see him get some recognition. He seems fantastic in A SINGLE MAN. Can’t wait to see it.
I’ll be happy to see Bridges nominated mostly because I’m a huge Maggie Gyllenhaal fan and want the film to be a success because of that (the trailer itself didn’t do all that much for me, but I still think I’ll be impressed with the actual film). Plus, if it gets nominated it will go wide enough for me to be able to go see. Maybe Maggie could even get some kind of recognition. The film definitely has potential as Fox Searchlight does a great job pushing potential Oscar films.
I really enjoyed both Joseph and especially Zooey in (500) DAYS OF SUMMER. Would love to see either of them score a nomination but I know it won’t happen. However, it has a very good shot at getting a Best Picture nomination, and that’s all I need. I’ll be ecstatic if it scores one. And really, it wouldn’t be hard for it to get one if Fox Searchlight pushes it. With AMELIA out of the way due to awful reviews they’ll be much better off campaigning for this. If I’m not mistaken the only other movies Fox has to campaign for are AVATAR and CRAZY HEART.
I really, really hope James McAvoy can get into the Oscar race. I hear he’s great in THE LAST STATION. He’s a very talented and underrated actor. One of my personal favorites. He deserved a nomination for THE LAST KING OF SCOTLAND.
Tom O’Neil’s list seems like a good one. I admire Viggo Mortensen’s work and would love to see him as one of the five (although I haven’t seen “The Road”). Bridges (an American great) and Clooney seem extremely possible.
I had counted DDL out, but the trailers remind me that the movie is all about him. Remember the saying about character: what the character says, what the character does, what other people say about him. It seems like every other character is just talking about him. And DDL is one proficient actor, so I’m ready to reconsider.
I liked Joseph Gordon Levitt in 500 Days, too and that’s one of my favorites for the year. I suspect my other (personal/non-Oscar) favorite will be Edward Norton in “Leaves of Grass” where he plays twins. What could be more fun to watch?
“I had counted DDL out, but the trailers remind me that the movie is all about him. Remember the saying about character: what the character says, what the character does, what other people say about him.”
And remember the screenplay was written by Michael Tolkin and Anthony Minghella — so you’ve got The Player meets The Talented Mr Ripley.
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