(Colin Firth, leaving the IMAX screening of Avatar because he has more important places to be.)
———-
Vowed last year that I wasn’t going to do this again before December, but all the other movie writers have taken the plunge so I’ll give it a shot too. This is my own personal speculation. If my list didn’t differ substantially from the Gurus of Gold and a half dozen other predictions of the 10 Best Picture nominees, there wouldn’t any point making it public. But my attitude is different and that effects my results.
The major point of departure is my hesitation to hand out Free Pass nominations to alleged big-name contenders I haven’t yet seen. Choosing movies based on musty pedigrees and past performance is how we end up with predictions like Frost/Nixon. Yes, that was an early assumption that became a self-fulfilling prophecy, but only because the imaginary momentum became impossible to overcome. (If you can call having our feet encased in concrete ‘momentum’). I’d just hate to sit idly by again this year and let the same sort of stubbornly feeble weeds take root. So I’m bucking the trend on 3 or 4 titles that most everyone is else has been calling locks for months.
We know the question all year long has been, What will the Academy do with twice as many BP nominees? My theory is pretty simple: they’ll give us double the amount of the same kinds of movies they always give us. A mostly brilliant double-dose of dazzle and prestige, with twice as many grumbles and groans to make sure nobody is entirely happy.
- An Education
- Bright Star
- (500) Days of Summer
- The Hurt Locker
- Inglourious Basterds
- Julie & Julia
- The Lovely Bones
- Nine
- Precious
- A Single Man
- Star Trek
- Up in the Air
I’m still open to the possibility that everyone else’s ‘locks’ that I’ve dropped might blow me away when I see them. And I won’t hesitate to adjust my predictions if any of them ultimately prevail next month. But for now I’m not giving a free ride to any movie that I don’t have a solid gut feeling about. I need more reason than “The Academy loves _____!” or “Never underestimate _____!” My philosophy: Don’t overestimate _____ either.
Forget all the speculation about expanding the scope to acknowledge animated, international or documentary films. Maybe eventually — perhaps in a year when we have another Ratatouille or Fahrenheit 9/11, or a year when the best foreign language films get earlier release dates in the US. But we’re not seeing that materialize this season. We can also stop pretending that there will be exciting new openings for all the wonderful new types of movies the Oscars normally overlook — blockbuster comedies, tiny indies, popular genre favorites like sci-fi and fantasy/adventure. Because guess what? Those movies have already claimed a seat at the table in recent years, even in a field of five — so the expansion to 10 doesn’t add any new chairs so much as it merely provides more elbow room.
This isn’t an official authorized Awards Daily prediction. And you can see from the absence of international titles that it’s not my personal Top 10 the year either. It’s just my instinctual premature speculation about how the Best Picture nominees could do the same thing thing this year that they always do: surprise us, annoy us, baffle, frustrate, and occasionally delight us.
Call it the RAFTA’s — Ryan Adam’s Freestyle Transcendent Alternatives.
60 Responses for "Best Picture Unlocked: Alternative Freestyle Predictions"
I honestly think that Star Trek has a legitimate shot at Best Picture with 10 slots open, what with its critical acclaim, box office, upcoming DVD release, yadda yadda. Plus, JJ Abrams will probably never have a BP contender like this one. Do it, Academy!
I quite like that list actually, and would be happy with any list including “Bright Star” and “(500) Days of Summer.” Although I would be heartbroken with no “A Serious Man.” But you take what you can get.
I came over to this site and the first thing I saw was two big ass eyes in blue. I screamed. Thanks Awards Daily!!
If you guys knew how hard it was to leave off Star Trek. Maybe you noticed when I first posted this, Star Trek was one of my 10.
Then I remembered that I meant to include another polished romance and/or period piece, so I had to make room.
Really, since I’m already naming more than 10 movies — might as well make it a dozen. Star Trek is going back in. Thoroughly satisfying film with huge audience appeal. Flawlessly executed pop thrill-ride.
If expanding the nominees to 10 doesn’t make room for first-rate Hollywood product like that, they should start handing out Oscars in a tent on Santa Monica beach.
Thank you Ryan for articulating what I haven’t been able to. Ever since the announcement of 10 Best Picture nominees people have been staining there pants thinking that this will open the field for more “out the box” nominations including some for animation, documentaries, blockbuster, etc, etc. My feeling is that with 10 nominations its just going to be more of the same thing.
Last year Frost/Nixon being awarded a Best Picture slot months before the nominations came out was disgusting. I feel this year we are doing the same thing with Up in the Air. I feel no matter what or how this movie is perceived by the general audience its almost inevitable that it will get a nomination because the academy has already been told that it is OK for them to do so.
I’m not trying to suck up but these are awesome ”predictons” and I would jump for joy if these were the ones that theye end up with.
The non-stop flights of publicity like the Up In the Air press junket are going to land right in front of the Kodak, Alfredo. Flocks of honking geese are forcing Captain Sully to use Hollywood Blvd as a runway.
Nomination is inevitable. But if it’s getting so easy to call Best Picture in September, why not beat the rush and move the Oscars up 3 months? Save everybody a lot of work. Nope, I’m praying for a Best Picture this year that wipes the smug grins off the faces of festival pundits
From what I’ve read, though, Up in the Air has more than the goods.
“I’m praying for a Best Picture this year that wipes the smug grins off the faces of festival pundits”
INGLORIOUS BASTERDS!!!!
Up in the Air nominations:
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Editing
Those categories seem certain. It would be insane to leave off Up in the Air from any list of predictions, no matter how alternative. With only 3 films to his credit, Reitman is the least insidery of the insiders. I really liked the screenplay, and I don’t have a problem with the nomination.
Just think a sweep would be dead boring. I’ll be holding a cyanide capsule under my tongue on Oscar night.
Oh joy…George Clooney getting an Oscar nomination foor playing George Clooney…
I’ve gotta say, I’m happy to see Up in the Air ordained a strong contender, even if festival first-itis was unfortunately part of the reason it happened. It’s an unorthodox sort of Oscar contender, not unlike Almost Famous, which just missed out. It is no Frost/Nixon, except in that it is likely the kind of film that will get nominated for most of the majors and win pretty well nothing. If it does win the big show, which I doubt will happen, it may not wipe the smug grins off the festival pundits who praised it so early, but it’ll do something similar to people who tout pedestrian literary adaptations and biopic prestige films well before the season starts. It would be like awarding Broadcast News over The Last Emperor.
I don’t have a problem with your list, but I would swap out the chick-flick movie-of-the-week Precious for the four-quadrant Sherlock Holmes.
Just a small confusion. You’ve seen “The Lovely Bones”?
“Oh joy…George Clooney getting an Oscar nomination foor playing George Clooney…”
Can an actor playing a gay man win Best Actor for the 3rd time in 5 years? I hope there’s not a quota.
This weekend I had a True Grit crash course. Watched the ridiculously stale and syrupy 1969 adaptation. Read the awesomely brisk and non-nonsense novel. And had a look at the new Coen brother’s script — sly and hilarious, brittle and brutal.
Jeff Bridges will have another excellent shot at a Best Actor nomination in 2010. I’m ready to call True Grit for nominations in all the top categories next year. It’s everything we love most about the Coens, with a sustained blast of serious maturity on top of their trademark craziness.
I’d rather see Jeff Bridges win Best Actor for a movie with Joel and Ethan Coen. The new Rooster Cogburn spins the The Dude and The Stranger into one helluva fun character.
No Patricia. Haven’t seen The Lovely Bones. Only read the novel and script. (Masterful adaptation of really difficult material.)
I wondered how long before someone would call me on my hypocrisy. I’m not saying that I’m above making blind guesses in the dark too. Just that I try not to reach out and grab the first weathered piece of driftwood that floats along.
wait George Clooney plays a gay man in Up in the Air??
I don’t know if that’s the swap I’d make, Hunter, but if Sherlock Holmes delivers I probably wouldn’t mind seeing it replace another title on my wish list.
District 9 is far better than Star Trek, and, though I liked Star Trek well enough, I’m kind of furious that it’s being talked up as a contender for Best Picture. If opening it up to films a lot of people have actually seen means Star Trek gets a BP nod, then I’d rather they excluded crowdpleasers. Ooooh, LENSFLARE! No, seriously?
I don’t think Jeff Bridges will have that much luck with True Grit. I would say the academy doesn’t like to do do-overs that much.
I wondered how long before someone would call me on my hypocrisy.
Hee hee. I was going to say – gut reaction means….what exactly?
I like this list a lot. especially the inclusion of Star Trek!
After monitoring his comings and goings on Twitter, I’ve decided Jason Reitman is a cool cat, as my dad would say.
I’m not sure which are the 3 or 4 films that everyone are calling locks that you are not picking Ryan? I would have thought the 3 would be The Lovely Bones, Nine, and Invictus, and you have picked 2 of them. The only ‘locks’ seem to Up in the Air and Precious, which you’ve also picked.
Not that I disagree with you, mind, just confused. I love your picks, especially the mention of A Single Man (which is sadly lacking from most pundits’ picks until now). Keep up the pics and the discussion and building the buzz for it please!
My gut tells me that Precious is “the one to lose”… I’d love to see it win both actress awards.
If (500) Days of Summer makes it into the Best Picture race, I will be so incredibly happy. Even if it has to bump out Up or Inglourious Basterds.
“I was going to say – gut reaction means….what exactly?”
oh great. I’m going to be digging myself out of this hole all day now.
I guess I mean that I’m less likely to buy these on impulse:
Freeman + Mandela + Eastwood = Oscar?
3D + Aliens + Cameron = Oscar?
Talking Dog + Hallmark + Pixar = Oscar?
and more inclined to bet on:
Isherwood + Ford + Firth
Keats + Cornish + Campion
Tarantino + Waltz + Weinstein
It’s no accident that the movies that interest me most involve writers I admire — as both source authors, adaptating and original screenwriting talent.
I’ll be stunned if (500) Days of Summer and The Lovely Bones don’t get screenplay nominations.
I’ll be equally stunned if Avatar or Invictus do.
And you know me. It’s not much of a movie in my eyes if there’s not smart stuff for the actors to say.
I hope the Academy feel the same way, Ryan! I’ll take a sharp script over 3D aliens any day
Star Trek – despite what everyone is saying, there is no way it will get a Best Picture nomination. It’s just not that impressive compared to the fine slate of dramas headed our way.
Now that they are expanding to ten films, I’d much rather see the inclusion of some of the masterful foreign films or documentaries, instead of just a broader list of the usual suspects.
for the most part I like the list! I love Pixar but I am glad Up is not in this list, as I feel it belongs only in animated. Avatar’s absence is amazing to me too, I just can’t begin to understand it’s hype.
I’ve seen 2 movies on that list. 3 I could have seen but skipped. And I’m not too jazzed about the others. Is this what it’s come to? *sobs*
By the way, you had me thinking I couldn’t count to 10. :p
I can only judge the ones I have seen, which are:
The Hurt Locker – A first-rate war film. In for sure.
Inglourious Basterds – Very good, but is it “Oscar” enough? I don’t know if members will take it seriously. I’d say it’s on the cusp.
Precious – Very good as well. I don’t think it lives up to the hype, but the buzz should put it in now that there are 10 slots.
Star Trek – A good popcorn flick, but not anything to jump up and down about. The dialogue was a bit spotty (especially in the beginning) and Eric Bana’s villain character was kind of terrible. Yes, they finally managed to make a good Star Trek that appealed to everyone… but it still wasn’t that great of a movie in my opinion. Maybe the problem is that I’m not much of a Star Trek fan. I really don’t see Academy voters voting for this.
Up in the Air – Great movie. In for sure.
I haven’t seen the other movies on your list, so I can’t comment on them. However, I do strongly support District 9 and Up, which aren’t on your list.
“I don’t have a problem with your list, but I would swap out the chick-flick movie-of-the-week Precious for the four-quadrant Sherlock Holmes.”
referring to Precious as a chick-flick is one of the most bizarre things i have ever read on any of these blogs. Have you seen the movie? Have you seen the trailer? Have you paid attention to anything happening on any Oscar blog at all? I know the trailer’s a little misleading by leaving out the fact that she’s pregnant with her father’s child, but it’s not like that omission makes the movie look like a bright and happy rom-com.
Also calling it movie-of-the-week is just ridiculous, when it is clearly more like movie-of-the-year material.
Nice list Ryan. But what about “Wild Things”? I know I’m a huge fan and it won’t be an easy ride to a nomination, but I’ll de damned if I see another children’s movie as brave, sad, and beautiful as this one. And besides, Spike Jonze is one of the best filmmakers of our generation. He’s only done three movies, but what glorious movies they’ve been.
I’ll be a bit surprised if Star Trek makes the cut, but since this 10-way race is an unknown commodity, I’m not making any bets. Sure would be ironic, though, in light of last year’s lack of showing for TDK.
Great list but it would be even greater if there was UP on it. I still have hope that they will nominate this ANIMATED MASTERPIECE.
Cool list, Ryan. I’m glad you’re resisting the Invictus/Avatar/Up triumvirate.
My BP wish list, for the moment:
Bright Star
District 9
The Hurt Locker
The Lovely Bones
Precious
The Road
A Serious Man
Up in the Air
Where the Wild Things Are
The White Ribbon
Since this is not really an extraordinary year for movies, I see “Up” in the Top Ten!
And Ryan, I´m surprised you left “Invictus” out? You liked the trailer very much, right? Or have you read the screenplay in the meantime and it sucked?
My main hope is that Julie and Julia makes the cut! My fave film of the year.
Meryl Streep deserves the win
Stanley Tucci should be nominated
Jane Lynch also deserves a nom for stealing her few scenes
Being someone who wasn’t a Star Trek fan before seeing the film, I still don’t see how anyone can write it off as just a “crowdpleaser.” It’s one of the best-reviewed films of the year and has the box office to back it up. It’s not at the phenom level that TDK was, but it’s definitely good enough to be in the top ten of the year.
Drew, because it´s just not the Academys cup of tea – it would take at least 50 nominees for Best Picture to get it included!
That’s right, drewroddy, and unlike, say, Precious, it’s a movie that people will not only want to see, but will want to watch more than once, which bodes well for it when the screeners go out.
I`m a huge supporter of Anna Kendrick. She is amazing in Twilight Saga and I trust those who saw UITA that she is awesome and Oscar-worthy. I see that she is really active in UITA promotion and Paramount is already campaigning the shit out of that movie, which is, reportedly, so great that people who`ve seen it are coming down with McWeenyitis.
That said, I would be furious if, after all those months of relentless Oscar build-up for Kendrick, Paramount suddenly put all its money on pushing LB and its actresses at Kendrick expense. Anna is working hard on promoting this movie while Sarandon and Weisz are sitting on their asses doing nothing because they are Sarandon and Weisz. I really don`t think they will be worthier of the nom than Anna. I`m sorry if this offends Sarandon and Weisz camp, but it would be terrible to see them get in over Anna just because they are names and Anna is the chick from Twilight. I haven`t seen any of the movies but I read LB and those roles are not complex unlike Anna`s. Again, sorry but I fear the competition from inside the studio more than that from outside because if the studio cuts the campaign funds, pop goes nomination. And I don`t want them to cut off Anna at the expense of bigger names just because the names are easier sell. I don`t fear that SAG will acknowledge Anna but it`s tricky with Globes who are celebrity suck-ups.
No way NO WAY is Star Trek making the final list. As others have stated, the summer sci-fi with the momentum is District 9, not Star Trek. And District 9 is competing for one sci-fi/fantasy slot with Avatar. No way they give more than one Best Picture nomination to a traditionally neglected genre.
The rest of the list looks great, although I would reserve one slot with ????? for that elusive, unpredictable oddball/cult/foreign film that will now have the power to sneak in out of nowhere because of the expanded list. What is this year’s City of God?
Gregoire: Probably “Let the right one in”?
It´s eligible, I guess – and “City of God” also failed to get a nomination in the foreign language-field, and the year after, it received multiple noms in mayor categories!
I don`t think D9 has the momentum anymore. It was the talk of the town while it was the only cheapo that could but now there`s Paranormal Activity and soon New Moon, the real cheapo-turned-superblockbuster of the year.
George Clooney plays a gay man in UP IN THE AIR?
I don’t think so, Ryan..
Alfredo, was joking in comment #17, rodrigo jp.
I quoted Alfredo wondering if George Clooney could win an Oscar for playing George Clooney.
My question about whether 3 actors in 5 years could win Best Actor playing gay men was about Colin Firth.
I’m saying if there’s a gay quota then Clooney’s chances improve.
I left out a step in the logic, and Alfredo likes to tease me.
I think the Best Picture Nominees will be:
UP
Precious
The Hurt Locker
An Education
The Lovely Bones
A Single Man
Up in the Air
A Serious Man
Invictus
Nine
Depending on the reviews, Nine may be out with Avatar or Possibly The Road in. I think UP has enough momentum to get a nod for Best Picture. Longshots are The Last Station or Bright Star. I don’t think Inglorious Basterds will get a nod and the only foreign film I see with a possible nomination is Broken Embraces.
The problem for foreign films in the Best Picture category this year is a question of release dates, I think.
A few of the best international films won’t open in the US until 2010. Notably, A Prophet, with a Feb. 12th release date.
Will The White Ribbon play in US theaters for a qualifying run this year? Not sure, but I don’t think it’s eligible either.
I took that into account when drafting my list.
And you’re right Reynold, Broken Embraces opens in NYC next week, so it’s well-positioned for a run at BP.
I wouldn’t count out the Coen brothers or an animated film slipping in.
Lose:
LOVELY BONES
500 DAYS OF SUMMER
(both will be too small to get noticed)
Add:
A SERIOUS MAN
CORALINE (or UP)
Never count out Eastwood who the Academy loves but I’m getting the feeling it might skip him this year. The trailer for INVICTUS doesn’t overwhelm. Have a feeling NINE is not going to be a repeat of CHICAGO. The Vogue Cover with all the femmes on it smells strange… and it might be “year of the woman” just not year of the “woman dancing in sexy clothes.” CORALINE fits a better version of female curiosity.
I’m not sure there is as much love for UP IN THE AIR either, as bloggers are positioning it. Maybe too over-hyped. JUNO had a lot of hype then backlash. Is Reitman a good enough director to get two nominations in a row? Isn’t that looking the gift horse in the mouth, particularly in a year with so many outstanding films that have “bigger” scope that UP IN THE AIR? (Is there a Canadian mafia pushing for him to be nominated or something?)
HOLD UP
Let the Right One In is eligible for this year?!
“Is Reitman a good enough director to get two nominations in a row?”
—
Stephen Daldry, three for three, and proving the law of diminishing returns in the process. If he can get three, Reitman can get two.
And lets not forget what`s his face, Lasso hellstorm or something, Harvey`s ex go-to made-for-Oscars-movie director.
No guts, no glory, so New Moon for BP!
bambi still on the new moon bandwagon I see?
Anyway my predictions in no order,
A Serious Man
An Education
Invictus
The Hurt Locker
Up
Up in the Air
Precious
Nine
The Lovely Bones
A Single Man
I predict –
Nine
Precious
The Hurt Locker
Up In the Air
A Single Man
The Last Station
Inglorious Basterds
Invictus
An Education
Crazy Heart
JAB, I´m not 100% sure about it, but it´s quite possible that “Let the right one in” is eligible (I don´t know if it was shown in US cinemas in 2008).
But if so, it´s a great contender in all mayor categories, I bet!
“Let the Right One In” played in Chicago in 2008.
I’m still surprised at how many people think JULIE & JULIA is a BP contender. Even with the nominations doubling to ten, I don’t see that getting in.
At all.
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