Like them or not, the National Board of Review is first out of the gate with the top ten films of the year. Even though they have been criticized over the years for being “not real critics” and a “bought and paid for” critics groups — none of that has seemed to matter. In the Oscar race, perception is everything. Well, it’s almost everything. The bottom line is that you can’t really make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear — if the film is truly crappy it won’t get very far no matter how much money is backing it.
But before we do, let’s take a look at the general philosophies around potential Best Pic nominees — generated off the top of my head, though I know if I spent the time I could back them up with facts. So in typical blog form, just accept what you read without facts.
Here goes.
1. The director is the star of the Best Picture race, and heat around him or her can mean the difference between a film that gets nominated and a film that should have been nominated. Occasionally an unknown with little or no buzz can sneak in there but generally that’s someone who is being towed along by friends in high places. It helps if that friend is George Clooney or Jack Nicholson. It is no wonder that many are predicting Peter Jackson, Jim Cameron and Clint Eastwood to be in contention this year just on name and reputation alone.
2. A strong lead acting performance that has a chance of being nominated. Usually one out of the five doesn’t feature a central performance but generally speaking, films like The Queen and A Beautiful Mind were pulled along by the combination of the director doing their best work and, more importantly, a bravura star performance at the center. If voters like and sympathize with the central character it seems they tend to like the movie as a whole as well. Ensembles can also work but they aren’t as popular, it would seem, as one strong central figure with whom voters can identify and/or pity and/or fall in love with (Gwyneth Paltrow).
3. Good reviews, or in lieu of that, a strong emotional tug. Even if a film has mediocre reviews it can overcome those provided it is sappy and redemptive enough — The Reader is a good example of this. However, the better the reviews, the better the chance for a NOMINATION. Winning films can sometimes benefit from great reviews, but history has shown us that it isn’t always the best reviewed film that wins. Being an all-around crowdpleaser (your grandmother, child, mother, boss, exchange student, guy who works at the 7-11 will get it if not love it) coupled with great reviews is usually your winning formula.
4. A motivated and Academy-friendly publicity team. I’ve seen publicists work miracles with films that had no business anywhere near the Best Pic race. It starts with their media contacts but it also has to do with TV spots (60 Minutes is always a good get, maybe Oprah) and their ad campaign. Check out our archival site for how campaigns were run in the past five years or so. Making “friends” with Academy members doesn’t really help because voters usually are motivated either by loyalty to their studio or buddies or else voting with their heart – they don’t usually care about a publicist, although it helps if that publicist IS an Academy member.
The truth here is that William Goldman’s statement is still true: nobody knows anything. It is a publicist’s job to work from that basic premise.
5. Timing. A little movie needs to be out front early – An Education is a good example. It gets buried otherwise, but not so late that there isn’t time to see the film’s impact on the public. Back in the day, a film would be shown to the public BEFORE the Academy decided whether it was a worthy Best Picture – so Best Picture nominees tended to be films everyone would agree were the best. Once they pushed back the date, with good intentions, there just wasn’t time for this to occur. So now you have movies that are Best Pic frontrunners long before they hit theaters (Up in the Air). Sometimes the public can make the difference. Gran Torino last year did so well with the public it could have gotten a Best Pic nomination despite the lukewarm reviews.
6. Too much hype makes people instinctively hate it. The psychology of the voter, and maybe the critic, is that they don’t much like sloppy seconds – mounting the beast after someone else has been there first can be a repulsive experience. One prefers to be the original. If everyone is saying how great a film is before audiences or voters get to see it, they are probably going to try their best to hate it. That was Dreamgirls’ problem and ultimately, Benjamin Button’s problem (even though nominated), and maybe even The Dark Knight’s problem. The movie has to be flawless to pass this test, a film that is so moving and involving it surpasses any petty indulgence — like Slumdog Millionaire. Or else so monumental no one can deny its importance – Schindler’s List, Titanic.
7. Know the film’s strengths and weaknesses. If you can’t sell it on A, you sell it on C. If you try to sell the one thing that’s wrong about the movie, you will remind voters again and again why they shouldn’t vote for it. If the writing is the weak point, don’t continually quote the thing. Sometimes the campaigns don’t matter because other factors are going to make a film the winner. The Departed, for instance, probably didn’t win Best Pic because of its print ad campaign. It won because voters liked it best. Which brings us to number 8.
8. You really can’t make people like something they don’t like. You certainly can’t do it by saying they SHOULD like it. Generally if people are divided up into hate it/love its you are probably looking at an uphill climb towards a nomination (though it can happen) but not a winner. You can get a film nominated that they haven’t yet seen but suspect it might be a masterpiece because of the print campaign and a few early reviews (Gangs of New York, which I actually liked) but you can’t get a winner that way, no way, no how.
9. Have something “important” about the movie that is beyond the ordinary. This doesn’t always hold true but these days it seems more true than ever. Every good story has a strong theme. Depth of story is important because, trust me, the older you get in life (and many Academy members are senior citizens) the more you’ve been there, done that. You crave depth of story, a good amount of humanity, otherwise it seems like, to quote Woody Allen, mental masturbation. In other words, make sure it’s “about something.” Biopics, historic war battles, sinking ships, civil war. Stories about real people in history seem to work well. If you don’t have any of that, an adaptation of a classic novel comes pre-packaged with depth and complexity; it is that rare film with an original screenplay that can make the cut if the writing is good enough. The bottom line is that too many films fail in the Oscar race because they are about unimportant people doing unimportant things. When you’ve seen enough of these you feel like you are watching the same movie over and over again.
10. A good movie is a good movie is a good movie. You don’t have to be Einstein to know a Best Picture winner when you see one if it’s the kind of movie people like. It can be vacant, semi-poorly reviewed, but if it’s a money maker without even trying (zooming to $100 mil without breaking a sweat), and it’s got one extra thing about it that elevates it from the norm, you are looking at a surefire nominee and possibly a winner. How do you manage to create such a thing? “I don’t know. It’s a mystery.”
Now, on to the National Board of Review. This isn’t a group that necessarily follows the rules of Best Picture nominees because they sort of set the tone for which films are going to be let in to the club and which films aren’t. No one takes them so seriously that they hold their picks up as the gold standard but a good start with them can lend a good amount of respectability, whether it is real or not: perception is almost everything.
The National Board of Review contest at Awards Daily will be underway later this week. In time for it, though, what are your top ten choices for them? Will they include an animated film and if so, Up? Or The Fantastic Mr. Fox? I think there will be a hodge podge of types of films. For the Bucket List slot, will it be Julie & Julia or It’s Complicated? Hm. Here are the films I know will be on it:
The Hurt Locker (maybe for the win)
Precious
An Education
Up in the Air
Nine
A Serious Man
Invictus (if they see it in time, which they should)
Films I think might be on there but I’m not sure:
It’s Complicated
500 Days of Summer
Julie & Julia
Up
The Road
A Single Man
Where the Wild Things Are
Crazy Heart
Films I would love to see on there but probably have a slim chance:
In the Loop
District 9
The Messenger
Definitely NOT their thing: Avatar
Won NBR*, Won Oscar+
Top Ten of 2008
Slumdog Millionaire*+
Burn After Reading
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Frost/Nixon
Gran Torino
Milk
Wall-E
The Wrestler
MISSING: The Reader
Top ten of 2007
No Country for Old Men* +
The Assassination of Jesse James
Atonement
The Bourne Ultimatum
The Bucket List
Into the Wild
Juno
The Kite Runner
Lars and the Real Girl
Michael Clayton
Sweeney Todd
MISSING: There Will Be Blood
Top ten of 2006
Letters From Iwo Jima *
Babel
Blood Diamond
The Departed+
The Devil Wears Prada
Flags Of Our Fathers
The History Boys
Little Miss Sunshine
Notes On A Scandal
The Painted Veil
Missing: The Queen
Top ten films in 2005
Good Night, And Good Luck
*
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash+
A History of Violence
Match Point
Memoirs of a Geisha
Munich
Syriana
Walk the Line
Top ten in 2004
1. Finding Neverland*
2. The Aviator
3. Closer
4. Million Dollar Baby+
5. Sideways
6. Kinsey
7. Vera Drake
8. Ray
9. Collateral
10. Hotel Rwanda
Top ten films in 2003
Mystic River*
The Last Samurai
The Station Agent
21 Grams
House of Sand and Fog
Lost in Translation
Cold Mountain
In America
Seabiscuit
Master and Commander
Missing: The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (Best Picture winner absent from NBR’s radar, for shame!)+
54 Responses for "State of the Race: The NBR and Top Ten Things a Best Picture Contender Needs"
#8 is why TDK didn`t get in and The Reader did and why BP winner of 2003 is missing on NBR list. You can`t make people like what they don`t like. AMPAS is demographics that doesn`t like superhero movies and can`t get enough of Holocaust. NBR ain`t into fantasy so, as pointed already, Avatar won`t be on the list.
In the end #8 rule is the only rule.
why arent you predicting the lovely bonesx to be here?
I was wondering about The Lovely Bones too, after Nine, it’s the film i’m still most looking forward to.
I’m guessing it’s going to be too late to be considered for NBR?
I don’t know – I just get a feeling that it isn’t their thing – fantasy and Peter Jackson. I’m looking forward to it too, believe me.
I’m hoping the absence of The Lovely Bones is just momentary forgetfulness.
I’ll keep saying it: This is one of the best adaptations I’ve read all year. Very cinematic screenplay, and it actually improves on the novel.
It’s Complicated was painful to read. I feel bad for any actor who has to say some of those lines.
I still can’t get over the fact that they put The Bucket List on there in 2007.
I’ve said it before, and I shall say it again, I think more than any other awards show/program this year, the Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice) will be the big indicator.
The NBR may be first out of the gate, but compared to other things like the BFCA, the Globes, the SAGs, the BAFTAs and sometimes even the Indie Spirits, their choices don’t match up as well.
The Old Straight White Male fantasy The Bucket List making it with them is a great example of why Precious may not be on their list. Aren’t the majority of the NBR straight white males, not movie critics? David Poland was just pointing out yesterday that nobody in that category is the slightest bit interested in Precious (certainly true of me and my friends). I would replace it with the Lovely Bones, which won’t have that problem, or even Sherlock Holmes, which has been long-screened and is getting great buzz.
“I still can’t get over the fact that they put The Bucket List on there in 2007.”
I don’t know how true it is, but I’ve heard the rumor that the NBR wants to sell X number of tables and the head honchos have strong backstage ties to executive offices in Hollywood. If so, then they might like to spread the wealth among studios.
oops, dueling simultaneous comments at 3:08. Are the NBR so cold-hearted that they would look at a murdered girl’s visions of heaven and call it a “fantasy”? Ouch, that’s a harsh attitude.
Best Actor: Robert De Niro, Everybody’s Fine
Best Actress: Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia
Best Supp. Actor: Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Basterds
Best Supp. Actress: Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Breakthrough Actor: Joseph Gordon-Levitt, (500) Days of Summer
Breakthrough Actress: Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Best Picture: An Education
If great buzz can pull Sherlock Holmes onto the list, Hunter, then it can definitely pull Precious on.
Good post, Sasha, very well put. I think people often lose sight of a lot of what you say up there in the heat of the race. When we’re all so mortified at this film making the cut and that performance being left off, I think we all ought to revert back to those points you’ve made.
And I think we’re all being a bit too optimistic about the NBR. It’s not just The Bucket List, it’s the absence of so many excellent films every year in place of a plethora of decent but not amazing Oscar bait. I’m preparing for the worst, hoping for the best…or something resembling it…
i think their list will look like this:
Precious
It’s Complicated
500 Days of Summer
The hurt Locker
An Education
Up
Crazy Heart
Nine
Up In the Air
The Lovely Bones
If Avatar isn’t on that list I’m going to rip my tongue out with a fork.
I disagree, Free. I think the NBR matches up, strangely enough, better than any group over time except for perhaps the Golden Globes. But that was when there were five. I think we may see a whole different thing when there are ten.
I left off The Lovely Bones because, as I said, I just don’t see it as their thing. I could be wrong – just a guess.
I’m going to guess:
A Serious Man
(500) Days of Summer
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Nine
Precious
The Hurt Locker
The Lovely Bones
Up
Up in the Air
My picks for BP ae:
Precious
Up in the Air
Up
A Serious Man
The Hurt Locker
Nine
Avatar
Inglorious Basterds
Invictus
An Education
Personally, I would LOVE to see District 9 play spoiler on my list, even though it’s seems unlikely at the moment.
Here are My NBR predix…
Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, CRAZY HEART
Best Actress
Carey Mulligan, AN EDUCATION
Best Supp Actor
Stanley Tucci, THE LOVELY BONES
Best Supp Actress
Mo’Nique, PRECIOUS
Best Director
Jason Reitman, UP IN THE AIR
Best Original Script
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, A SERIOUS MAN
Best Adapted Script
Geoffrey Fletcher, PRECIOUS
Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner, UP IN THE AIR
Best Picture
UP IN THE AIR
Best Directorial Debut
Tom Ford, A SINGLE MAN
Best Documentary
UNDER OUR SKIN
Best Breakthrough Performance – Male
Jeremy Renner, THE HURT LOCKER
Best Breakthrough Performance – Female
Gabby Sidibe, PRECIOUS
Best Film Ensemble
PRECIOUS
Best Animated Feature Film
UP
Best Foreign Language Film
THE WHITE RIBBON
TOP 10 FILMS OF 2009
1. The Hurt Locker
2. Up in the Air
3. District 9
4. Up
5. Precious
6. Inglorious Basterds
7. Nine
8. An Education
9. A Serious Man
10. The Lovely Bones
Being that Carey Mulligan was basically unknown before this film, wouldn’t she be ineligible for the best actress category and would have to fight it out with Gabourey?
Well, one thing no one has pointed out, although I do every year. This is the gayest group going. Really, really predominantly gay and all New Yorkers and all, well, retirees.
So that would put “A Single Man”, and of course a campy musical “Nine” and a campy performance in a half-campy comedy “Julie and Julia” IN. And also, pardon me for saying it, “Precious” which has a HUGE positive gay(or rather lesbian) content and it’s director is a New York casting director and GAY GAY GAY. I think “Precious” is in.
They also have the, ahem, problem, of selling VERY expensive tables to all the studios…Which explained what “The Bucket List” was doing there and will explain whatever studio has only maybe one contender (“Is that YOU Fox Searchlight?”)who last year had “Slumdog Millionaire” but this year has only “Crazy Heart(s)” So they want to sell them a table so they will put that film on their Bucket List.
Which now that I think of it is a good name as any for the NBR.
Also, they’re all monied. Costs a lot to belong and even more to attend their big Who-Ha. And they WANT to match the Oscars, they really do. They think that they’ve “Got It Wrong” if they don’t.
So Carey Mulligan is probably going to win Best Actress here. Or at least certainly Best Breakthrough Female Performer.I think J-HUD won that a few years back for “Dreamgirls.”
NONE of its members are diverse. And many, many of them who aren’t gay men are women. Women are more repesented in this group than any other, they really are.
So “An Education” is a film they would LOVE, and movies that remind them of the great days of The Art House(like “Letters to Iwo Jima” did)and they consistently award The George and The Clint…and also, come to think of The Pedro…So “Broken Embraces” might make that list. And so could “Coco Avant Chanel.”(Broken record, sorry, but it’s still playing at the Paris, one of NYC’s last remaining, intact great ole Art Houses, right smack dab opposite the Plaza.
No, you are forgetting that unlike Sidibe Carey Mulligan is a classically trained stage actress and starred on Broadway in The Seagull where she was nominated for a Drama Desk Award.
Lovely Bones is a widely respected novel, and popular among the kinds of readers that look down on LotR.
My sense of the NBR is that they will see it if they can. It’s up to Jackson, Walsh and Boyens from there. But TLB will get a shot with them where RotK was a threat to their Manhattan snob-cred.
lmao at ROTK missing from the 2003 list. wtf were they thinking?
Yes, to Carey Mulligan WOWing NY critics(and audiences) in “The Sea Gull” and yes, she did indeed receive a Drama Desk award. So that all bodes very well for her, I’m happy to agree.
However, having interviewed her very recently and ASKING her about her training she admitted that she felt she had none as she did not go to one of the main British Drama schools in London, RADA, LAMBA, Central, Guild Hall, none of them.
She went right into modeling(the Audrey Hepburn effect) then right into The Show Business. In London. As a working actress. And appearing on the London stage is equivalent to any Drama School teaching IMHO.
She had to audition over and over again for her part in “An Education” over a long period of time. I think it was years. And of course, it all worked out for her PERFECTLY, we can all agree.
To pull off that role in “The Seagull” That’s Chekhov. That’s chops.
That should have been Drama Desk Award NOMINATION. Sorry.
NBR does not claim to be a professional critics group, so I’m not sure why it gets bashed for it. According to their website their membership is composed of film professionals, teachers, students and historians. I think “Precious” has a very good chance of winning as does “The Lovely Bones”,they seem to love book adaptations.
Do you really think “Star Trek” doesn’t have a chance? It was one of the best things about this summer, and recent NBR noms for movies like “The Dark Knight” and “The Bourne Ultimatum” suggest that they aren’t opposed to critically respected and financially successful action movies, so I think “Star Trek” may make a nice fit here.
@Hunter, #8:
I think it’s a little presumptuous of David Poland to claim that “nobody” in the straight white male category is the “slightest bit interested” in watching Precious. He seems to be operating on the assumption that all straight white males think the same, feel the same, have the exact same taste in movies. Really? I’ll just bet, when all is said and done, that there will be some straight white males that will want to watch Precious, and some that will actually like it.
My guess:
1. Precious (winner)
2. Up in the Air
3. The Hurt Locker
4. An Education
5. Invictus
6. Nine
7. A Serious Man
8. The Lovely Bones
9. Up
10. The Last Station
I really hope District 9 scores an Oscar nod now with ten films being chosen. The thinking seems to be that the expanded nominations are a result of the Dark Knight and other crowd pleasing films not being nominated. I actually didn’t have a problem with TDK losing out. The screenplay had serious issues particularly in the third act and the film wasn’t emotionally involving. District 9 is a stronger film that offers up some social commentary that makes it just relevant enough to make the cut. In terms of its commercial success and glowing reviews it’s probably the best possible nominee in the science fiction/fantasy field since the Lord of the Rings films.
1. Nine
2. Where the Wild Things Are
3. Precious
4. Invictus
5. The Hurt Locker
6. Up
7. An Education
8. A Single Man
9. A Serious Man
10. Up in the Air
Threw a couple wild cards in there, obviously.
I really see The Hurt Locker winning this thing. For some reason, it just seems like they would pick this–I can’t explain it.
Best Actor–Colin Firth, A Single Man
Best Actress–Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia…I’m torn between Carey Mulligan, too. I would think they would award her for best breakthrough performance, although it will be close with Gabourey Sidibe
Best Supporting Actor–Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones (seems they would appreciate this actor)
Best Supporting Actress–Mo’NIque, Precious
Best Breakthrough (Female)–Carey Mulligan, An Education
Best Breakthrough (Male)–Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Best Original Screenplay–The Hurt Locker
Best Adapted Screenplay–Up in the Air
Top 10
The Hurt Locker *
Bright Star
An Education
Invictus
It’s Complicated (they usually have some bizarre, random, shitty movie a la The Bucket List and Defiance)
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Precious
A Single Man
Up in the Air
Avatar and The Lovely bones won’t make the 10 because they will not be seen until after the NBR announces:
An Education
A Serious Man
NINE
Precious
UP
Up in the Air
District 9
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
A Single Man
Best Picture Winner- The Hurt Locker
Ugh. I forgot Inglourious Basterds. Swap it in for Where the Wild Things are in my list.
(Fake) Dan, you are correct about AVATAR. However, given that The Lovely Bones is officially completed, the NBR should see it in time.
On a related note, the reason the NBR did not include LOTR: ROTK on their list is because the film was not finished yet. They never saw it.
What about Zooey Deschanel for Best Breakthrough Performance Female? Any thoughts?
Golden globes expands animation nominations to Five
http://www.slashfilm.com/2009/11/17/golden-globes-expands-animated-features-to-five-nominations/
#36: I think that one will go to Gabby Sidibe for “Precious”, while Carey Mulligan or Meryl Streep will win “Best Actress”.
Stanley Tucci could prevail in the supp. Actor-category for both “Julie & Julia” and “Lovely Bones”, but for all that I´m pretty confident that the Oscar will go to Christopher Waltz.
My picks for the NBR list:
Bright Star
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Precious
A Serious Man
A Single Man
Up in the Air
I’d be really happy with that list from the NBR, ladylurks. Would be great to see an influential group set the example right up front, letting everybody see that having A Serious Man and A Single Man side by side is no breach of seating etiquette.
Stephen Holt, as much as I like your advocacy for Coco Avant Channel (and will applaud any recognition it receives) NBR has not been putting foreign films on its lists. If anything I could see The White Ribbon breaking in here, but do not expect it to happen.
I like ladylurks list, too.
Thanks, Bob and Ryan. I wrestled with putting on Where the Wild Things Are, then taking it off. Sasha is so right that they don’t usually go for fantasy – but it is Warner, and that studio acts like the NBR’s corporate sponsor or insurance company lobbyist or something highly corrupt and unethical, LOL.
Anyway, I figure they can always make up a special award for Wild Things, like they did for LOTR, while snubbing it from the main list. I just hope they don’t feel obliged to include The Informant! or The Blind Side. eek!
Overall, I like their taste – it matches mine pretty well, so I’m hopeful most of my list could get in.
Each to their own but lmao @ #30. D9 stronger than TDK? LOL! Ok, I respect your oppinion and sorry for laughing but D9 isn`t a phenomenon some people here make it out to be. It was a successful movie boxofficewise but no TDK, Passion of the Christ or even The Hangover. Also, despite great reviews, it doesn`t have passionate masses demanding BP nomination like in TDK case. TDK had a movement behind it. D9 has sporadic voices but no support on the grand scale.
I like Ladylurks’ list too! By George, I think she’s got it!
Also, they DO have a “Best Foreign Film” award and yes, it COULD go to “The White Ribbon.”
And while there aren’t many actual bona fide film critics in this group, there ARE a lot of theatre critics, surprisingly. And I guess it’s good to re-iterate that with the HUGE gay component plus the abundance of female members, that those two groups together in the case, unlike the other awards-giving bodies, they form a majority.
And yes, they are all well-off, and older, and also predominately Jewish, FYI.
yeah, I know, and that’s why it would be hard for Broken Embraces or White Ribbon to break through to the list of ten – they’re already awarding foreign in its own category. Shame, though, because their lists would be so much better with l’Enfant or Cache, or The Class.
The White Ribbon might be interesting to them for the same reason they left off The Reader – conversely Inglorious Basterds for the same reason they included Defiance – but my guess is they leave both off their list of ten and include A Serious Man as their Jewish pick.
I’m hoping they pick out something unexpected to win (The White Ribbon would be way past unexpected)… but the Harvey connection here, historically powerful, points to Nine, IMO.
If any awards body is likely to notice Where the Wild Things Are, it’s NBR, though. And there are monsters, but the mood is melancholic, and even dark. And of course, the Warner Bros. connection.
So, my best guess:
Invictus
Nine
Where the Wild Things Are
The Hurt Locker
A Single Man
A Serious Man
An Education
Bright Star
Up in the Air
Precious
I still can’t believe that Meryl Streep is being talked up for a nomination for Julie and Julia. I just can’t get my head around it. I love Meryl, it was a good performance, but … really?
“On a related note, the reason the NBR did not include LOTR: ROTK on their list is because the film was not finished yet. They never saw it.”
But they gave ROTK an award for its ensemble, so I’d like to think they did see it, and didn’t just throw them an award because they could sense the awards haul that was coming for ROTK, but didn’t want to seem out of the loop, thus retaining some credibility that year…But then again, this is the group that included The Bucket List in their top 10 for 2007 over a TON of better/more worthy films. 2007 was, for me, hands down the decade’s best year for films.
Also, since we’ve been mentioning the ROTK snub, on the opposite end of the spectrum, possibly one of the greatest wisn for that film that year was being awarded Best Film from the New York Film Critics. I just remember thinking that was so awesome at the time.
I think this year it’ll be one of:
An Education (totally seems like their cup of tea)
Precious
The Hurt Locker (because they know it’s going to be a huge player in the Oscar race)
My NBR picks are:
1. Up In the Air
2. Invictus
3. Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire
4. Inglourious Basterds
5. Julie & Julia
6. Nine
7. A Serious Man
8. The Hurt Locker
9. It’s Complicated
10. An Education
I predict –
-Nine
-Inglorious BAsterds
-An Education
-Up in the Air
-The Hurt Locker
-Invictus
-A Serious Man
-Sherlock Holmes
-Fantastic Mr. Fox
-Crazy Heart or Where the Wild Things Are
Well just as The Reader was not on the radar this time last year with the exception of throwing everything at Kate Winslet and rightly so, I suspect that everyone is overlooking two films – Bright Star and A Single Man. One of these two, if not both, will have more of a major presence come Oscar. You heard it here first!!!!!
Glenn
The Hurt Locker
A Serious Man
Inglourious Basterds
An Education
Bright Star
Invictus
The Cove
Drag Me to Hell
Sunshine Cleaning
Coraline
For NBR:
I don’t think they order their top 10 lists anymore besides the Best Picture winner, do they? If that is the case, then I think it will be this:
An Education* (Best Picture)
Bright Star
The Hurt Locker
Invictus
The Last Station
Nine
Precious
A Serious Man
A Single Man
Up in the Air
Best Director: Kathyrn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Best Actor: Colin Firth, A Single Man
Best Actress: Carey Mulligan, An Education
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Best Supporting Actress: Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Best Original Screenplay: A Serious Man
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Last Station
Also, for the past couple years NBR has named 11 films total – a best picture plus a list of 10. So that probably opens up one additional slot.
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