“What good is knowledge if it just floats in the air? It goes from computer to computer. It changes and grows every second of every day. But nobody actually knows anything.” (Don Delillo’s White Noise)
I was intrigued by David Poland’s latest Oscar column, one of his best, and it occurred to me how long some of us have been at this game. Evolution is a funny thing. In nature, in life. Although the Oscar coverage scene has been ballooning since I started doing this back in 1999, this year it really has reached its limit, I think. Whether many of the same voices who are covering it this year will be back next year will depend on how this whole thing plays out. Will the vacancy of this year’s offerings prove too frustrating and not profitable enough and chase them away? I’ve seen a lot of sites come and go and a lot of Oscar coverage come and go. Some of it is great, some of it is an echo chamber. But if you thought last year was a disaster, where one film won everything and no other film had a shot and the only moment of suspense involved whether or not The Dark Knight would be nominated — take a look at this year. There is more white noise than ever before the start of the actual season, but worse, there seems to be a gaping hole where movies should be.
Up in the Air is the juggernaut everyone should fear. I suspect that it will have one or two challengers but for now, it seems to have a clear shot to victory. They aren’t upsetting the apple cart with too much buzz, noise or ads and they still have the film’s release to look forward to. We can only hope that these films, these Oscar movies, can somehow cross over into the public consciousness. Can Oscar and the public reach synergy? If anyone can do it, George Clooney and Jason Reitman can. Maybe Clint Eastwood and Morgan Freeman can. Maybe Rob Marshall can. Maybe Jim Cameron can. Maybe Nancy Myers, Meryl Streep Streep, Alec Baldwin and Steve Martin can. Are there any surprises left to be played out?
As we grind down to the end of the year, things are not looking good. I don’t sense a tenacious competition yet. The studios seem like they are unsure of their product and thus, with a few exceptions, are not vigorously selling them. Perhaps they’re worried of overselling them. There is the danger of underselling them too. If this weren’t a year when the Oscars needed to be a money making telecast, if this weren’t a year when the film industry needed an injection of cold, hard cash – if this weren’t a year when the Academy expanded their Best Picture slate to ten to make room for big budget films, genre films and, gasp, comedies – it would be easy to find ten Best Pictures of the year.
But this is that year. This is the year that is supposed to turn things around. It is looking more and more like a drive-in movie theater – just a few cars parked in the same spots they always park. Its patrons are dwindling. One can feel the push of change. But in what direction, this?
Part of it seems to be left over from the writers strike, which halted projects a couple of years ago. Two years ago ten Best Picture nominees would have been a great thing. This year? We’d be lucky to find five really good ones. This is the kind of year that seems to back up the Academy’s decision to shave down the nominees to five. Don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying there aren’t ten good movies worthy of a Best Picture nomination. I’m saying that there aren’t ten game-changing movies worthy of a nomination. Not yet anyway.
If there were only five slots, however, we would be in our usual fervor to pare them down to the best of the lot. We’d be looking at Up in the Air, The Hurt Locker and Precious for sure. We’d be looking at Inglourious Basterds OR Nine but not both.
So what happened? There were fewer films made overall. The economy tanked and the public essentially stopped buying tickets to the kinds of films that usually dominate the Oscar race. Their dollars have instead gone to to easy payoff films. A good many of the Oscar hopefuls did not fly according to plan, and those that had a shot waited so long to be released to the public they became instantly cooled. A look at Box Office Mojo of the top money makers and a look at Metacritic for the highest rated films yields interesting results:
1. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen – $402 million (MC score=35)
2. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince – $301 (MC score=78)
3. Up – $293 (MC score=88)
4. The Hangover – $277 (MC score=73)
5. Star Trek – $257 (MC score=83)
6. Monsters Vs. Aliens – $198 (MC score=56)
7. Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinos – $196 (MC score=50)
8. X-Men – $179 (MC score=43)
9. Night at the Museum – $177 (MC score=42)
10. The Proposal – $163 (MC score=48)
Of these, only The Proposal and The Hangover were not kid and/or tween movies. We know we’ll be adding Twilight to the top of this list, perhaps. Avatar will shoot up there too. But if you notice, kids movies are mostly recession-proof. The reviews don’t seem to matter much either. Up, Star Trek, Harry Potter and The Hangover are the four with the best, albeit outside, shots at a Best Picture nod. And really, only Up seems to have a realistic shot. Can you imagine the cover of the DVD for The Hangover with an Oscar nomination shout out? Their street cred would rise as their prestige plummeted. At what cost stepping outside the box? Really only Up is the one that seems to have the best chance of being nominated, especially when you look at the box office and the reviews combined.
But the Oscars aren’t really about family entertainment, or kids movies. They are that dying breed that still prefers adult entertainment. What will adults say are their top three favorite films of the year?
Given the gaping hole where a lot of movies should be, this really does leave room for unconventional Academy choices, like Star Trek, like The Hangover, like It’s Complicated, like Avatar. If these are to be the year’s biggest money makers aimed at adults, why not recognize them? With ten nominees they have a choice to go both high and low brow. They can honor the brave and arresting work while also including movies everyone else in America saw and liked.
As with all Oscar years, the thematic content of the films matter most. What is the mood of the country? What are we looking for in films? What will this year look like in historical perspective? The first year of Obama’s Presidency, a deep recession, a country in conflict, Oprah Winfrey, Sarah Palin, Glenn Beck, Jon Stewart, Bernie Madoff. Which films will resonate with the majority and still be good enough to be awarded Hollywood’s highest honor?
We’ll have to wait and see whether all of the online chatter has any impact at all, is anywhere close to being on target, or just white noise blotting out the real sounds of the day.
29 Responses for "The State of the Race: Follow the Money"
OK, so, why there`s no thread where we can discuss reactions to Nine, LB and Invictus? SAG loved Nine. Harry Knowles and Twittees love LB. Invicuts got 2 so-so reactions. Now that these movies are seen, Oscar watch will be more interesting and there are still Avatar and Holmes to be seen.
You can discuss it here – why not? Oh you mean recent screenings?? I’m getting wildly mixed reports and these are all under embargo – you can try Rope of Silicon – he doesn’t really care about embargoes. Me, I don’t trust the blather. It doesn’t really help me figure things out at all. I’m aware of it, keeping an ear peeled to it, but until there is some actual substance, real reviews and the like, I’m not going to post gossip.
Invictus did not get “two so-so reactions.” Grown men were weeping. Hundreds of them. The last time men wept at a sports movie it was called Chariots of Fire and it won Best Picture.
Follow the money? Well, the bookies have Invictus and Precious as equal favorites. Bridges almost at even-money with Firth at 3-1, while Mulligan and Gaby equal at 2-1.
Back to Sasha’s main point: what movies do the Oscars award in hard times? Spiritually uplifting pictures, sheer entertainments and awe-bringers. So that means good news for Invictus, Sherlock Holmes and Avatar.
All the so-called “Oscar” movies that I’ve seen this year have left me underwhelmed in one way or another whether it’s The Hurt Locker’s protagonist, Inglorious Basterds’ lack of premise and meaning, An Education’s atrocious third act, or Precious’ screenplay. The only movie that came closest to my expectations and satisfaction is “500 Days of Summer” but something inside me feels weird calling it the Best Picture of the year.
This is probably the worst year to have a larger list of nominees. I just hope the final list doesn’t run the gamut of long shots and shoo-ins. That doesn’t make it an equal race. And lets hope the final list doesn’t snub great films, which may also be the case.
I agree there is this real shortage this year of Best Picture nominees. Usually we look at 1 or maybe 2 as filler, this year we will see almost 5 to 6 filler movies. Up in The Air does seem the one that will win DGA and eventually Best Picture.
This year more than any year, maybe the academy should look at foreign films to fill some slots, raising the Oscars’ prestige as well as getting over the dilemma as to what write in the ballot. I’ve read a lot of voters say, how will they think of 10 movies. At this point, frankly, I will also have trouble.
And I agree with Sasha, these screening reports are gibberish. Last year I read that people were weeping in Button. when I saw the movie, I could not even muster a single emotion throughout the movie.
I think there are a lot of sites providing great coverage, including Awards Daily. I see no need to worry. Oh, and have I mentioned that Nine will win BP?
Oy, I was one of those people at the Button screening!
The thing is, every report can impact how you see the film – if your expectations are lowered you will probably like the movie more. If your expectations are too high the movie will disappoint you. Unless of course it’s a movie like Slumdog…
Yes, Mark, you did!
Very cool article.
“As with all Oscar years, the thematic content of the films matter most. What is the mood of the country? What are we looking for in films? What will this year look like in historical perspective?”
Strictly speaking, this would be Star Trek – passion and logic in proper perspective, an underlying sense of optimism about the possibilities for the human potential for discovery, and just enough ninja style diplomacy.
Oscar voting is like assembling a top 10 list…. what makes you proud, what increases to prestige of the Academy?
Precious looks like that film to me right now.a
Slumdog won for lots of reasons, but a big reason is that it was a hit.
I’m not a big fan of The Hangover. I didn’t hate it, but I definitely didn’t like it. In fact, I’ve called the Death of the American Comedy.
But let’s be honest …. I was out and about this Halloween and it was the only film of this year that had people dressed up as characters. It’s the only film that struck that sort of chord with the public. God help our country, but that’s the truth.
If the Oscars want a popular film that people can cheer for, that’s the one.
Nice column, Sasha.
I kind of disagree, however. I feel like I’ve already seen more good movies this year than I have in all of 2008. Will 2009 be better than 2007? I don’t see how. But at least it will be better than last year. Say they had 10 nominees last year. What else would you have included besides The Dark Knight? (Personally, I thought Waltz with Bashir was the best film of last year.)
By the way, there’s one movie that has yet to be mentioned here that got great reviews, did well in the box office, was highly innovative, and would serve as a great “people’s choice” selection. Can you guess what it is? Why, it’s District 9, of course.
Let’s look at the stats for good old D9.
Rotten Tomatoes: 90%
Metacritic: 80
Domestic gross: $115 million
Let’s review the bidding, then. What we have is an action blockbuster (it’s made more than $100 mil) for adults that was a big hit with the critics. Sounds like a winner to me. It’s exactly what the Academy needs.
#3 “Invictus did not get “two so-so reactions.” Grown men were weeping. Hundreds of them. The last time men wept at a sports movie it was called Chariots of Fire and it won Best Picture.”
Shit.
#2
Fair enough. I didn`t know about embargos.I just saw people discussing it on AD forums so I was wondering why we can`t here too. But all good now.
What movie captures the mood of “deep recession, a country in conflict, Oprah Winfrey, Sarah Palin, Glenn Beck, Jon Stewart, Bernie Madoff” – - -
UP IN THE AIR will be it.
I would certainly take Up In the Air over Precious for a Best Picture winner prediction. People have been harrumphing about it but the fact remains that Precious is not a picture that straight white males want to see and Up In the Air is. That alone puts it ahead.
Having said that, I long for a picture to enter the frame that isn’t simply the least worst of the nominees, but a great picture in its own right, that unlike those two pictures is actually worthy of the Best Picture Oscar. Neither of those films belong in the same room as the cartoon picture UP.
So fingers crossed for Lovely Bones, Sherlock Holmes and Avatar. Especially Avatar: let us celebrate the high-soaring adventure and the raised bar, not the squalor of wasted lives or a bittersweet comedy-romance of failure and let’s-make-do. If Precious or Up In the Air win Best Picture people will never remember them; if a picture like Avatar or UP wins people will never forget it.
Can we say NINE. SAG already loves it. That’s a big step forward in my eyes. The marketing for the film is amazing and alot of people are beside themselves with anticipation. I don’t think this is the year to hope for a film like Up to take the top prize.
SAG may have loved it (though I heard differently) but it met a pretty indifferent response elsewhere, JR. I was amused by David Poland’s dismissal of it as “B Italian.”
This weekend I saw two movies that will make my personal ten best list: The Messenger and The Fantatic Mr. Fox. Both films were outstanding and I liked them even more than The Hurt Locker and Up, two films that are being talked about as Best Picture.
I agree with Sasha’s comment that lower expectations (or none) allow you to enjoy a movie more. High expectations aften lead to disappointment.
While I admired/enjoyed Up In The Air, The Road, Precious neither stirred me in any great way, and I think that is partly because my expectations had been raised by buzz from Sundance, Toronto etc
In the case of The Road, its delayed release should have made me like it more (delay = bad). But it wasn’t bad, i just wasn’t moved by it.
Despite being smart, funny and about the current economic climate, I’m not sure Up In The Air is the best film of 2009 (certainly not for me, personally). Perhaps a second viewing in a few weeks’ time without expectations will allow me to enjoy it more.
I really would not be surprised if Up in the Air wins the Best Picture Award, not because it’s a great film but it just might please the greater number of voters across the different branches of the Academy. With 10 films competing for Best Picture though, one films doesn’t have to get that many votes to win.
Slightly off topic, but I LOVE LOVE LOVE the Max Records “Wild Things” Best Actor campaign going on in the site’s FYC section.
“Precious” has more PR firms working on it from a variety of widely different angles than any film I’ve ever covered in my life of covering films. That includes PR firms just concentrating on O-S-C-A-R.
I think it will be nominated and most people agree Mo’Nique will win. Even our darlin’ DP has her in his top slot in Supp. Actress.
I was matching wits and stats last night with someone who is considered a primo insider and the paragon of taste, too, when it comes to awards.
Jeff Bridges seems to have won already. Ok, I can cop to that position. AND Mo’Nique.
Everything else is not quite so copacetic in Oscarland.
This person said both Meryl Streep AND Stanley Tucci for “Julie and Julia” I disagreed. I still think it’s Carey Mulligan out there ahead after all these months(since Toronto) and I disagreed.
“It’s been so long since Meryl won,” but y’know I don’t think the Academy really cares. And Stanley Tucci is “beloved” BUT I countered “He’s got TWO films in direct competition with each other. And he could split or cancel out his own vote.”
The other film would be TLB, in which he is NOT playing a loving husband, to say the very least.
This brought a thoughtful pause. Meaning, I think I might be right about Stanley’s chances.
“Supporting Actor is all over the place.” And that statement I could agree with.
Having seen “Nine” many are pronoucing that it will be nominated, but most are liking it, not loving it, if they like it at all. DDL is most likely getting a Best Actor nomination for it. Evidently, he does shine, according to my source. With Marion Cotillard and Penelope Cruz likely to be nominated in the Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress categories.
But all three of the “Nine”ers have previous wins so they won’t win again this year. Everybody pretty much agrees with that one.
And Jeremy Renner is not a nomineed, it is perceived.
“It’s an ensemble drama” and “He doesn’t really stand out.” I differed on that point, too.
I saw and got to talk to Anthony Mackie from HL and he was very proud and happy about HL (and it’s upcoming chances of sweeping the Gotham Awards a week from tomorrow) but he didn’t seem certain at all about a nomination, though I could tell he’d be DElighted if that happened for him in Supporting Actor.
ANOTHER great article Sasha, and as she constantly reminds us, nobody knows anything.
Personally I think this has been the weakest year in film in a long while. Especially the best actress category. They should bring the best debut back like they had before. I do not think Gabourey Sidibe’s performance was a stretch for her or ” great ” acting. It’s not bad, but Oscar worthy ? We have two no-names actresses in the predcition lead for that category.
Next year in the first 5 months you may see some movies that will be possible Oscar contenders. I have a pretty long list of what looks like some highly antcipated films. I’m already looking into 2010 more than I was for 09.
I also don’t listen to the hype much like how Sasha proclaimed. I have that same analogy. Until I see the flick myself I reserve any opinion. I guess I was in the minority on Slumdog. By this time last year everybody and their mother said it was the best thing since sliced bread. I liked it. I didn’t see it as cinematic excellence though. People forget it was a day away from being put on the DVD shelves before narrowily being scooped up and then it wins best picture ?
I do wish there were more honest and genuine reactions to movies. Some people think like sheep. They just go with the whatever the popular word is.
I thought Slumdog looked like a movie directed by a capable director directing first timers. It was the film that could. But I don’t think it was the best film of the year, or even a top 5. It made my top 10.
This year is looking much like the same. And I’ll go on record as saying I don’t like the expansion to 10 best picture nominees. And also…I hope they go back to the tradtional way of the previous years winners announcing the nominations.
I think it has been a good year for films. The awards competition is livelier than ever. No longer will “certain” directors or “certain” genres of films be “locked.” No longer will Academy members be brainwashed by publicity or hype (there isn’t enough PR money being spent this recession year, so that when there is too much spent on one singular campaign it comes off as desperate like they are trying to “buy” awards). Desperate will be a turn off! Good filmmaking will be the standard.
The Academy has no use for indie films. Mostly retired folks from the studio system days they usually choose only big budget full-on union productions made by their close friends.
Although, like most of us, even they may soon tire of yet another effects-laden comic book-turned-tent-pole effort from the creatively-challenged studios.
#28 – The Academy has no use for indie films? Aren’t most of the BP nominees from the last decade or so indies?
And I’m tired of people talking about District 9 as some big, wonderful movie. Insipid, at best.
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