It’s all happening! The awards season is finally off. Next week, the National Board of Review will announce their winners and the films that they name will have an automatic head start. Does that mean they’ll be a close match with Oscar? Probably not. With five Best Pic contenders buried in their top ten, it was kind of easy. But with a ten by ten match-up, I predict it will be near impossible. I’m going to guess that the NBR matches Oscar about six out of the ten categories. Just a hunch. We also have the Globes, the Critics Choice and the AFI, not to mention the critics’ top ten lists. Click here to predict how the NBR will go. To check out the National Board of Review’s site, which shows how they voted last year (five foreign film runners-up, plus a foreign language winner), click here.
No doubt you will discover some films not on the list. You have two places to add those I neglected to add. But if you find that I have left off more than you can jot down, please email me and let me know. Otherwise, give it your best shot. We will have a couple of interesting prizes to choose from, to be announced later. And if you want to see deep background, check out this post on the NBR with past winners and nominees.
60 Responses for "Predict the National Board of Review"
Oh my gosh! Can’t believe it’s already here.
PS. Roger Ebert has seen “The Road” again and has taken back his original negative, 2.5 star review and replaced it with a 3.5 star one. Hehe.
I have an honest question: Avatar, and Nine are on the list. Will the voters have seen these three by the time they submit?
(and guessing since many have seen/reviewed The Lovely Bones it is a possibility)
The White Ribbon isn’t on the list, is there a reason that it wouldn’t be?
The only reason is that they might put it on the foreign list – they do give a foreign winner plus five other winners….
Ah, er,um, the first ones out of the gate are really the Gotham Awards this Monday night, wherein I predict a “Hurt Locker” sweep. BP, BD, Best Actor-Jeremy Renner and Best Ensemble, too!
This is the NYC-based indie group that has famously snubbed “Precious” with no nominations whatsoever.
THL NEEDS this early hype to jump start this final part of its’ awards race. With TLB and Nine going down, it, and other films that have been out longer, now continue to rise.
“An Education” for instance.
I still think the Gothams have a way to go before they are reliable precursors for the Oscars. But thanks for the reminder!!
Long live Mr Tarantino !
Top Ten
The Blind Side
Crazy Heart
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
Invictus
Nine
A Single Man
Up
Up in the Air
Best Picture – Precious
Best Director – Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Best Actor – Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Best Actress – Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Best S. Actor – Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones and Julie & Julia
Best S. Actress – Mo’Nique, Precious
Best Cast – A Serious Man
Best O. Screenplay – Bright Star
BEst A. Screenplay – Up in the Air
Hurt Locker
Precious
An Education
Lovely Bones
Nine
Up
Up in the Air
Inglorious Basterds
Brothers
500 Days of Summer
Best Picture – Up in the Air
Best Director – Kathryn Bigelow, Hurt Locker
Best Actor – Colin Firth, Single Man
Best Actress – Carey Mulligan, An Education
Best S. Actor – Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Basterds
Best S. Actress – Mo’Nique, Precious
Best Cast – Precious
Best O. Screenplay – 500 Days of Summer
Best A. Screenplay – Up in the Air
Best Picture – Probably Precious, though I may go out on a limb here and say the A Single Man could be a spoiler (just to be daring)
The rest of the top ten (in no particular order)
Up
The Hurt Locker
An Education
Bright Star
Up in the Air
The White Ribbon
The Lovely Bones
Where the Wild Things Are
Best Director – either Kathryn Bigelow or Lee Daniels
Best Actor – Jeff Bridges
Best Actress – Gabourey Sidibe
Best Supporting Actor – Stanley Tucci (recognized for both films)
Best Supporting Actress – either Mo’Nique, Julianne Moore, or Anna Kendrick (I know it’s a cop-out, but I really can’t decide)
Best Cast – Precious
Best Original Screenplay – Up
Best Adapted Screenplay – An Education
Just wanted to point everyone to the early word on The Princess and the Frog…the word is GLOWING and looks like Pixar finally has a worthy rival on its hands.
The screenwriter of Precious is a former NBR member. My guess is he’ll win the screenplay award.
The Board also has a gay mafia contingent of members. Single Man for something important. Perhaps Picture (ala Gods And Monsters). Though if the studio is smart they’ll make sure all the cast members of Nine show up for their screening to charm the Board. That always goes over well with that crowd. Will probably net them an Ensemble Cast Award (though really, who the hell else are they gonna give that to?)
I don’t care to speculate on the rest but Hurt Locker is thus far the best movie of the year. It absolutly BOGGLES my mind when people bother to even mention An Education or Bright Star in its company.
FYI: the DGA screened SHERLOCK HOLMES last night and they went absolutely nuts for it. Standing ovation, wild cheering, huge applause for everyone on credits, especially Downey, Law and Guy Ritchie.
You have me officially excited for Sherlock Holmes’ potential, Hunter. It would be very cool indeed if this turns out to be the late-entry surprise to shake up the more predictable predictions. You’ll deserve all the backslapping congrats for keeping this on our radar. Nice bookend to you long career, since — unless I’m mistaken — your road to fame began as one of the original Baker Street Irregulars, am I right?
Yes indeed. Also excited about this news is Mr. Holmes himself, who as you may know has retired to Sussex where we spends his twilight years engaged in bee-keeping. When I told him the news and expressed my hopes about the movie’s Best Picture prospects, despite it being a slam-bang entertainment, he told me “when you eliminate the impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. Besides, it has a major studio behind it. Oh, and I would not rest my hand against that beehive, if I were you..”
aha! I know of Mr Holmes beekeeping avocation through the account of one Mr. Chabon and the more recent chronicles by his lady friend Laurie King.
Do you approve of any of the Holmes reincarnations, Hunter? I read Dust and Shadow this summer (because I’ve been more anxious for the movie next month than I’ve been willing to admit), and I think it nailed the tone and attitude with perfection. Managed to update with contemporary relevance and introduce more sexiness without tainting the original. It would make a great movie in its own right — though not part of this new franchise, because it’s too traditional. Maybe the BBC will adapt it.
Dust and Shadow is great fun. By far my favourite of the reincarnations is Mark Frost’s The List of 7, which would also make a terrific movie.
ahh, great! That’s what I was asking in a roundabout way — was wondering if you could recommend a good resurrection. And here you are suggesting one that I’ve only vaguely even heard of. Thanks. I’ll be checking it out.
#13 “Standing ovation, wild cheering, huge applause for everyone on credits, especially Downey, Law and Guy Ritchie.”
La duh! Of course they wouldn`t especilaly cheer McAdams whose range is either super-mean or diabetes-inducing and nothing in between.
I`m very excited for this! Heck, Avatar has a problem now for I don`t know anyone outside of Internet that is hyped for it, but they are all hyped for Holmes. Hm.
Best Picture: An Education
Director: Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Actor: Colin Firth, A Single Man
Actress: Carey Mulligan, An Education
Supp Actor: Stanley Tucci, Julie & Julia + Lovely Bones
Supp. Actress: Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Orig. Screenplay: A Serious Man
Adap. Screenplay: Up in the Air
Foreign Language: Mother from Korea (because Ryan liked the first half of it…just kidding)
But, actually, I´m very bad in predicting this group.
Top Ten
District 9
precious
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
Invictus
Nine
A Serious Man
Informant
A single man
Best Picture – A Serious Man
)
Best Director – Quentin Tarantino (i just like him a lot
Best Actor – matt Damon, Informant
Best Actress – Gabby Sidibe, precious
Best S. Actor – Christoph Waltz, IB
Best S. Actress – Mo’Nique, Precious
Best Cast – A Serious Man
Best O. Screenplay – D9
BEst A. Screenplay – Up in the Air
i’m not sure
Where is the DGA standing ovation link? Would be interested in reading it.
Here’s a bit of history regarding the voting trends of the NBR (Best Picture and Director).
http://www.awardscircuit.com/Articles2009/nbrseries1.html
I think the Hurt Locker needs a win the most. It seems like it came out a decade ago, and movies like Precious and Up in the Air are taking center stage.
Invictus – Best Picture
Top Ten:
Brothers
District 9
An Education
The Hangover
The Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
Precious
A Single Man
Up
Up in the Air
Director – Lee Daniels
Actor – Colin Firth, A Single Man
Actress – Helen Mirren, The Last Station (alternate Sidibe, Precious)
S. Actor – Tobey Maguire, Brothers
S. Actress – Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air (I really think Mo’Nique should, could, and would win this, but I don’t think NBR will award her.)
Original Screenplay – The Hurt Locker
Adapted Screenplay – Invictus
Animated Film – UP
Foreign Language – Das Weisse Band (I hope this could possibly make the top ten, or even Best Picture)
Top Ten:
(500) Days of Summer
Avatar
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Precious
Up
Up in the Air
Best Director: James Cameron, Avatar
Best Actor: George Clooney, Up in the Air
Best Actress: Saoirse Ronan, The Lovely Bones
Best Supporting Actor: Stanley Tucci, Lovely Bones and Julie and Julia
Best Supporting Actress: Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air
Best Original Screenplay: (500) Days of Summer
Up in the Air
Precious
Nine
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
The Hurt Locker
An Education
Avatar
Sherlock Holmes
Brothers
So confused. Do you think that Brothers by
Jim Sheridan will be noticed by the NBR?
Winner: Precious
An Education
The Last Station
Bright Star
500 Days of Summer
Nine
Invictus
Up In The Air
The Hurt Locker
A Single Man
Up
Director: Reitman
Actor: Firth
Actress: Sidibe
Sup Actor: Molina
Sup Actress: Monique
Or Screenplay: 500 Days of Summer
Ad Screenplay: Precious
Foreign: A Prophet
Doc: The Cove
Forgot Ensemble: Tough call, either Precious or Nine. Maybe The Last Station
(500) Days of Summer
Avatar
District 9
Inglorious Basterds
The Hurt Locker
A Single Man
Nine
Precious
Up
Up in the Air
Either PRECIOUS or THE HURT LOCKER will be snubbed!
THE PRINCESS AND THE FROG will make it in!
Bam!
(500) Days of Summer
An Education
The Hangover
The Hurt Locker
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Precious
Star Trek
Up
Up in the Air
Best Picture: The Hurt Locker
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Best Actor: George Clooney, Up in the Air
Best Actress: Carey Mulligan, An Education
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, Precious
Best Original Screenplay: Up
Best Adapted Screenplay: Precious
Best Foreign: The White Ribbon
Best Documentary: Food, Inc.
Best Ensemble: Nine
How people and especially Conan Doyle fans can be excited about this film ?
I don’t get it. It looks absolutely awful, like a very bad americanised and polished version of the character.
And Guy Ritchie’s direction looks, well, what would you expect from him anyway?
I don’t know anybody around me who’s seen the trailer and who hasn’t taken the piss or got really angry (at least in UK).
There is no way this film will be nominated, I’d loose absolute faith in Oscars if so.
And I back up #22 asking for a link about the DGA reaction. I do remember someone asking you, Hunter, a few weeks ago where you had all your privileged infos from (and you do seem to be the only one on internet to have them), but I haven’t seen any answer to that.
Surely all your lobbying for the film would sound more credible with some reliable sources, and not just like some made up fantasies…
cant wait for a Mo’Nique win here.
I HOPE!
and for best picture – I predict Up in the Air
With their tendency to spread the wealth (it is a rare occassion when the same film wins multiples), here is how I think it will play out this year.
Film of the year: The Hurt Locker
rest of top ten:
Bright Star
An Education
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Julie & Julia
Nine
Precious
Up in the Air
Best Director: Quentin Tarantino- Inglourious Basterds (alt. James Cameron- Avatar): they LOVE going big here
Best Actor: George Clooney- Up in the Air/The Men Who Stare at Goats (alt. Morgan Freeman- Invictus)
Best Actress: Meryl Streep- Julie & Julia/It’s Complicated (alt. Carey Mulligan- An Education)
Best S/Actor: Stanley Tucci- The Lovely Bones/Julie & Julia (alt. Christopher Plummer- The Last Station)
Best S/Actress: Mo’Nique- Precious (alt. Penelope Cruz- Nine)
Best Screenplay: Up in the Air (alt. Inglourious Basterds)
Best First Film: District 9
Best Breakthrough Performance: Gabourey Sibide- Precious
Best Cast: Nine
Best Picture: The Hurt Locker
Best Actor: Matt Damon, The Informant!
Best Actress: Carey Mulligan, An Education
Best Supp. Actor: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Best Supp. Actress: Mo’Nique, Precious
Breakthrough Actor: Joseph Gordon-Levitt
Breakthrough Actress: Gabourey Sidibe
Ensemble Cast: Everybody’s Fine
Please put in Where the Wild Things Are as a picture option. You know how beholden NBR is to Warner Bros., right?
Question:
Since the Weinsteins have changed Melanie Laurent to Lead Actress in their FYC, is she to be considered in that category for all awards, or just globes, oscars etc?
NO GUTS NO GLORY!
Avatar snubbed
Everybody´s Fine in the Top Ten
Best Film / The Last Station
Best Actor / Viggo Mortensen
Best Actress / Michelle Monaghan
Best Supporting Actor / Alec Baldwin
Best Supporting Actress / Marion Cotillard (Nine & Public Enemies)
Breakthrough Male / Michael Stuhlbarg
Breakthrough Female / Gabourey Sidibe
Best Director / Quentin Tarantino
Original Screenplay / In the Loop
Adapted Screenplay / Invictus
Bright Star
An Education
(500) Days of Summer
The Hurt Locker
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Precious
In the Loop (wishful thinking)
Up
Up in the Air
Best Picture: Up in the Air
Best Director: Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Best Actor: George Clooney, Up in the Air
Best Actress: Carey Mulligan, An Education
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, Precious
Best Original Screenplay: Up
Best Adapted Screenplay: Nine
Best Foreign: The White Ribbon
Best Documentary: Food, Inc.
Best Ensemble: Nine
Avatar being snubbed is not a NGNG prediction, because I think it’s unlikely any NBR members will have seen Avatar at all.
Drum roll please, Ryan….
Best Picture: Nine
Top Ten: Precious, Up in the Air, Up, Invictus, Inglourious Basterds, Crazy Heart, It’s Complicated, A Serious Man, The Hurt Locker, An Education
I’m not picking anything else it’s only the NBR.
NGNG: Best Picture is A serious man, Campion wins Director, and Sherlock Holmes, A Single Man, and The Fantastic Mr. Fox crack the top 10.
I wouldn’t discount the NBR completely, chrisw–they were the first (and I think the only) critics group to award Halle Berry for Monster’s Ball, so they do have somewhat of a track record for prognostication.
Alan of Montreal,
Halle Berry won Best Actress awards from SAG, Phoenix Film Critics, and from the Berlin Film Festival. And she was nominated by the Globes, AFI, and BAFTA. So it’s not like NBR was the only group on to her that year…
But it also wasn’t a sweep a la Mirren in The Queen.
Some surprises in my predictions, as there seem to usually be at least a few with the NBR each year.
TOP 10:
Bright Star
An Education
The Hurt Locker
In the Loop
Invictus
Nine
Precious
A Serious Man
A Single Man
Up in the Air
Best Picture: An Education
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Best Actor: Colin Firth, A Single Man
Best Actress: Carey Mulligan, An Education
Best Supporting Actor: Christian McKay, Me and Orson Welles
Best Supporting Actress: Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Best Original Screenplay: A Serious Man
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Last Station
Breakthrough Male: Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Breakthrough Female: Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Best Ensemble Cast: Inglourious Basterds
Best First Film: Tom Ford, A Single Man
i’m going with Inglourious Basterds, A Serious Man, District 9, Precious, Informant and Hurt Lucker
BEST PICTURE: Invictus
Top Ten
An Education
The Hurt Locker
The Informant
Inglorious Basterds
Invictus
Nine
Precious
A Serious Man
A Single Man
Up in the Air
BEST DIRECTOR: Lee Daniels for Precious
BEST ACTOR: Jeff Bridges- A Crazy Heart
BEST ACTRESS: Carey Mulligan- An Education
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christopher Waltz- Inglorious Basterds
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Mo’nique- Precious
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: The Hurt Locker
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Up in the Air
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Up
BEST BREAKTHROUGH-ACTOR: Jeremy Renner- The Hurt Locker
BEST BREAKTHROUGH ACTRESS: Gabourey Sidibe- Precious
BEST DIRECTORIAL DEBUT: Tom Ford- A Single Man
BEST ENSEMBLE CAST: Nine
Whatever happened to Star Trek??? Isn’t it a piece of cinematic excellence we’ve never seen in a long long while…?
Winner – Invictus
Top Ten
Up
Inglourious Basterds
District 9
500 Days of Summer
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
An Education
Up In The Air
Precious
The Hurt Locker
Winner: Nine
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
The Hangover
The Hurt Locker
500 Days Of Summer
Precious
A Serious Man
Stark Trek
Up
Up In The Air
Best Director – Jason Reitman – Up In The Air
Best Actor – Daniel Day Lewis – Nine
Best Actress – Carey Mulligan – An Education
Best Supporting Actor – Christoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds
Best Supporting Actress – Mo’Nique – Precious
Ensemble Cast – Nine
Animated Film – Up
Original Screenplay – Inglourious Basterds – Quentin Tarantino
Adapted Screenplay – Up In The Air – Jason Reitman
Foreign Film – The White Ribbon
Documentary -The Cove
I’m surprised at the amount of people not predicting The Hangover… but oh well.
NGNG – My Sister’s Keeper in the top 10
Joseph Gordon Levitt for Best Actor
Melanie Laurent for Best Supporting Actress
Oh, I forgot to do my No Guts No Glory picks, so here they are:
-Precious is left off the top 10 (and the backlash begins…)
-Up loses Animated Film to either The Princess & the Frog or Fantastic Mr. Fox
-Michael Stuhlbarg wins Best Actor
I’m confused…is it 10 total, including the winner, or 10 + the winner (11 total)?…the link to past NBR nominees/winners show there being a total of 11 films for ‘08 and ‘07. In every other year, it’s been 10 total…That makes me think it’s suppose to be 11 total, since that’s what they’ve been doing most recently, but then I check the posts here, and I see people doing it both ways!
WINNER: THE HURT LOCKER
Up
Up in the Air
Invictus
Precious
Bright Star
Brothers
A Single Man
An Education
The Blind Side
Best Film: Invictus
Blind Side, The
Brothers
Education, An
Inglourious Basterds
Lovely Bones, The
Julie & Julia
Precious
Serious Man, A
Up
Up in the Air
I think it’s a bit difficult for common viewers to give their top 10 since there are quite a few that haven’t been released yet. I will say that I think The Blind Side, The Road, Paranormal Activity, The Hangover and Julie & Julia should be in there somewhere. But I also know that the chances of Paranormal Activity and the Hangover getting noticed with voters is a stretch. So I am going to say what i think will be nominated:
The Hurt Locker
The Blind Side
Invictus
Up
Up in the Air
Nine
The Lovely Bones
A Serious Man
The Road
Precious
top ten:
A Single Man
An Education
Avatar
Inglorious Basterds
The Last Station
The Lovely Bones
The Messenger
Nine
UP
Up in the Air
Top Ten:
A Single Man
An Education
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
The Lovely Bones
The Messenger
Nine
Up
Up in the Air
Best Picture: Up in the Air
Best Director: Lee Daniels for Precious
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart
Best Actress: Helen Mirren in The Last Station
Best Supporting Actor: Stanley Tucci in The Lovely Bones
Best Supporting Actress: Vera Farmiga in Up in the Air
Best Screenplay: Up in the Air
Best Ensemble Cast: Nine
Top Ten
Bright Star
Broken Embraces
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Inglorious Basterds
Invictus
A Serious Man
A Single Man
Up in the Air
Best Picture – Broken Embraces
Best Director – James Cameron, Avatar
Best Actor – Morgan Freeman,Invictus
Best Actress – Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Best S. Actor – Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones and Julie & Julia
Best S. Actress – Penélope Cruz, Nine
Best Cast – Precious
Best O. Screenplay – Up
BEst A. Screenplay – Precious
Best Picture – Up In The Air
Best Director – Lee Daniels – Precious
Best Actor – Morgan Freeman – Invictus
Best Actress – Sandra Bullock – The Blind Side
Best Supporting Actor – Stanley Tucci – Julie & Julia
Best Supporting Actress – Mo’Nique – Precious
Best Cast – Precious
Best Screenplay – Up In The Air
Best Cast – Nine
It’s Up In The Air
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