Tom O’Neil and Patrick Day over that The Envelope’s Buzzmeter have assembled a large group of folks, including Pete Travers and Michael Musto (I hope that Musto and O’Neil do some Oscar videos this year – they were funny and insightful together). He says that they’ll be updating them more as time goes on but this is a prelim count – so far:
BEST PICTURE
SCORE
20 – “Up in the Air,” “The Hurt Locker” – received votes from all of our pundits.
19 – “Precious” – Jeff Wells is a holdout
19 – “Invictus” – Snubbed by Erik Davis
16 – “Nine”
15 – “Up”
14 – “An Education,” “Inglourious Basterds,” “A Serious Man”BEST ACTOR
SCORE
17 – Colin Firth, “A Single Man”
16 – George Clooney, “Up in the Air”
14 – Morgan Freeman, “Invictus”
11 – Daniel Day-Lewis, “Nine”
10 – Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
7 – Viggo Mortensen, “The Road”BEST ACTRESS
SCORE
18 – Carey Mulligan, “An Education”
17 – Gabourey “Gabby” Sidibe, “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”; Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”
14 – Helen Mirren, “The Last Station”
9 – Abby Cornish, “Bright Star”
25 Responses for "Gold Derby Buzzmeter Takes Flight"
I thought that Ms. Mulligan’s buzz is fading? And how come Sandra Bullock is not in the preliminary?
“I thought that Ms. Mulligan’s buzz is fading?”
Who told you so?
My bad, Ms. Bullock is in the preliminary. At number 10!
About Ms. Mulligan? Oh, some people posting here and there.
Don´t trust them!
I´m pretty sure a nom for Ms. Mulligan is assured!
I would like Ms. Mulligan to be nominated.
Don’t count out Bright Star just yet – I feel confident it will emerge when the Globes get behind it – and they will!!!!
How do you know?
I personally think Mortensen might be behind Renner & possibly Damon if Invictus doesn’t do well…oh, and checking their full chart, yes they’re right behind with them. I like their #1 choice.
I like that besides the “obvs 4,” the 5th choice is the one I most want nominated, Abbie Cornish. Interesting to see that Cruz is snug between Ronan & Cotillard.
Buzz for Education might be faded, I suppose. The T5 pics are the obvs 5 since festival season. I do hope it’ll change. Huge gap betw 11 & 12: 12 vs. 4 votes. As has been the pattern lately, the T11 are the 12 that seemed likely after festival season, minus the 2 I want the most and plus an extra one – here being Basterds which’d have no chance in a 5-year. Interestingly, Cameron comes out over Marshall. I like the choices of Tom Ford & Pete Docter even though there’s basically no chance. The 12 directors with at least 1 vote are The 12, exc Tarantino over brilliant Campion; lame.
Cross-listing:
Mulligan 18; Mo’Nique, Sidibe, Streep, Firth 17
Clooney 16; Waltz 15; Moore, Freeman, Mirren, Molina 14
Kendrick 13; Cruz, Damon & Day-Lewis 11
Tucci & Bridges 10; Cornish 9
Multiple appearances among these: Precious 34 pts, Education 32 pts, Single Man 31 pts, Up in the Air 29 pts, Invictus 25 pts, Nine 22 pts (even for both). Good bets for Sag Ensemble.
I hope Bright Star ousts 500.
Where is Ms. Portman, I wonder…….
Guy Richie, Sherlock Holmes, Jude Law, maybe RDJ.
Stephen Lang for Best Supporting Actor for Avatar.
Mark
Mulligan is a lock for a nomination, her buzz is fading when it comes to her early frontrunner status as a future winner.
Considering a week ago NOBODY thought Bullock’s movie will be a surprise hit (it could reach 150 million in the US) and that it could receive good reviews and great ones for Bullock, that 10th slot is actually pretty good since she came out of nowhere only a couple days ago.
while the others mentioned above – due to their early festival screenings – have been out and buzzed for months.
Phantom,
I agree with your Mulligan analysis…..
Ms. Bullock is gaining momentum. This makes a lot of sense. Do you think she would work the press? I do hope she gets a nod. She is always a reliable actress, you know?
I couldn’t agree more. People like to trash her because she has done a lot of romcoms and made several bad career choices – big deal, who hasn’t? -, but to be fair you can’t really blame an actress for choosing to entertain her audience over accepting only meaty, Oscar-baity roles to stroke her own ego. I really, really hope that she would work the press because they love her and that could be crucial in her campaign. And although she did say this to EW recently
“People who do what I do don’t do award winning films. Which is kind of a relief because you don’t have to go to that next step when it comes to that award seasons thing. I’d rather be home, put on the jeans, go outside, pick up dog poop, or go for a run or something.”
I think she said it because she simply didn’t thought for a second that after 20 years, they would finally want to recognize her for her talent.
Btw the trashing and the ‘one-note/one-genre’ accusations are based on what ? Dislike ?
1994 – The Action Thriller (Speed)
„While Reeves and Hopper play a battle of wits, Sandra Bullock nearly drives off with the picture. As Annie, a passenger whom Jack puts behind the wheel when the bus driver is shot, the smart and sassy Bullock is a knockout. She makes us believe the impossible things Annie is doing and, better, makes us care.”
Pete Travers (Rolling Stones)
1995 – The Romantic Comedy (While you were sleeping)
„There aren’t many movie actors we simply like. Marilyn Monroe was one, and that quality, not sex appeal, is why she has remained such a durable memory. On the basis of “Speed” and “While You Were Sleeping,” Sandra Bullock may be another. She plays Lucy in a low key, as a shy, unassertive young woman, and so of course late in the film when she has to stand up for herself, we’re proud of her.”
Roger Ebert (Chicago Sun Times)
1996 – The Political Thriller (A Time to Kill)
„Although she receives top billing, Bullock plays a somewhat peripheral character who hovers around the edges of the central events until rather late in the game. All the same, she is very fetching as a young woman who knows her worth and proves it time and again.”
Todd McCarthy (Variety)
2000 – The Junkie Drama (28 days)
„Bullock gives it her all; she’s bristling and alive on screen in a way that she hasn’t been since ”Speed.” „
Owen Gleibermann (Entertainment Weekly)
The Action Comedy (Miss Congeniality) (not many actressed could tackle this genre)
„Bullock is just plain funny.”
John Anderson (Newsday)
2002 – The Dysfunctional Family Drama (Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood)
„Even Bullock, whose performances have been characterized more by charm and instinct than by pure acting talent, delivers an unexpectedly deep performance as a daughter who bears more of a resemblance to her mom than she might comfortably admit.”
Ann Hornaday (The Washington Post)
2004 – The Best Picture (Crash)
„It’s a great moment: shocking and scary and almost absurd—a laugh catches in your throat. The focus of Crash then shifts to Bullock and Fraser as victims—we follow them home, where Bullock—playing Jean, a racist harpy with all stops out, doing full penance for her recent Miss Congeniality 2—castigates her husband for his timidity, insists that the locks on their huge house be replaced immediately, and makes loud racist slurs when a Latino man (Michael Pena) comes to perform this labor.”
Ken Tucker (New York Magazine)
2006 – The Biography (Infamous)
„Bullock’s warm, wise and penetrating presence, as the To Kill a Mockingbird author – Capote’s childhood friend, assistant and conscience – is the soul of McGrath’s sumptuously art-directed (by Judy Becker) and scored (by Rachel Portman) film.
Carrie Rickey (Philadelphia Inquirer)
Anyway, she is definitely gaining momentum and with every little factor going for her ( http://www.awardsdaily.com/contendertracker/?p=462 ), she could – and should – easily land at least an Oscar nomination.
And contrary to the popular misbelief, due to lackluster box office (Cornish, Mulligan, Monaghan), already fading buzz , category confusion (Mirren, Streep, Cotillard, Ronan), dissapointingly mixed reviews (Pfeiffer, Taotou, Ronan) and non-existent release dates (Mirren, Bening), there IS still place in this category for a late bloomer. So good luck Sandra, don’t give up ! You deserve this ! We root for you!
First of all everything I have read up to this point had A Serious Man as a “lock” for a Best Picture nomination. Has this fizzled as well?
As for the predictions for this year I think it’s safe to say that anything is up for grabs. I personally feel that to this point this may be the worst year for movies since 2005. I have seen A Serious Man, Precious and the Hurt Locker and I don’t think any of the three stand out as locks in that category. Monique is the only sure fire nomination.
Phantom,
I love how succinct your thoughts are about Ms. Bullock. I have always liked her work and you know what, she does seem like a very down-to-earth person. I would have to confess that I love her performance in “In Love and War” and I thought that when she said “I Love You” to Chris O’Donnell’s Ernest, it was one of the most meaningful and heartfelt declarations ever put on screen. Do you remember that scene? Yes, she deserves a nod from the Academy.
I remember because during the whole thing I was thinking “damn, if only the script were better and she could get praised for it”.
She totally deserves a nomination now after 15 years close to the fire.
And what people tend to overlook, that she is an extremely consistent box office performer even if her movies rarely make 100 millions in the US. Her movies make around 50 millions stateside and something similar on the international circuit and since her films don’t cost much (20-40 million range), she is making profit for the studios during the theatrical run already. And that’s a real accomplishment today when most of the movies have to wait for the dvd release and tv rights to make some actual profit.
Who does a sister have to beat DOWN to make sure Jeremy Renner gets a nod?! Just sayin’…
Thanks, filmfemme. I’ll offer a similar shout out from the brothers. Who do we need to beat down in support of Jeremy Renner?
Haha, funny
Probably Daniel Day-Lewis and Viggo Mortensen.
Clooney and Freeman are locks at the moment and their films seem the ones to beat this year.
Firth and Bridges are getting career-best reviews and since they are long overdue, their snub would upset a lot of people.
So basically pray for the women’s overbearing shadow in Nine
But overshadowing Day-Lewis seems quite impossible to be honest.
I hope Renner will get in and Firth will eventually win.
Viggo, maybe, but I think “The Road” is going to be a hard road to hoe for a lot of viewers. But Daniel Day-Lewis?! REALLY?!! For wearing a suit and being lucky enough to be surrounded by beautiful women??!!! And he already has two?!
I just don’t see how they can nominate “The Hurt Locker” for BP and director and not nominate Renner (and frankly Anthony Mackie too. But I know he’s a much longer shot).
Has anyone seen Coco before Chanel?
I think Audrey Tatou deserves an Oscar nomination for her work in this film. Anyone else???
I have seen it months ago. She is really good, but the film isn’t. It’s OK, but nothing special.
I think she is in the Pfeiffer/Cheri-group now : great performance in a so-so little-watched movie.
BUT
I see a slight chance that the Academy would want to console them this year. I mean the Amelie-snub and the constant snubbing of Pfeiffer are very harsh and the possible headline of “Two French Ladies competing in the Lead Actress Category First Time EVER” could be tempting, too.
I can see Pfeiffer becoming this year’s Bening/Being Julia. If the Golden Globes back her up – her category is kind of weak this year, she could even win – her chances will rise again. And if she gets nominated for an Oscar, it will be extremely hard to snub her once again.
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