The Gurus of Gold have laid it down after screening many of the Oscar contenders — most of them have seen Nine, Invictus, Up in the Air — most have not seen The Lovely Bones nor Avatar. Interestingly, Anne Thompson sped Invictus right to number one. It is impossible, I can tell you, to predict the Oscars in any way, shape or form before the films have been released. If a person manages to do it it’s just blind luck. The Oscar race, as I always say like a broken record, is not static; it is fluid. It changes as the mood of the audiences changes. My final theory on this is that people choose films for two reasons. The first is because they were moved by the story. The second is that it somehow identifies them to the world at large. What they choose is who they are. That means that films have to be sexy and hot in order to do well in the race. If the Oscar race comes down to perception, perception now starts in how the voices online shape the image of the film long before it hits theaters.
So that, even if the film does well, it could still be carrying a stigma that will trickle down to voters eventually. This is probably one of the worst things about the race as it stands today; how are films to be judged on whether they are good or bad without the echo chamber and group think?
Here is how the Gurus shaped up for Thanksgiving week.
Your Best Picture, I can guarantee you, is on this list. I think Avatar is way too far down on the list, however. We’re still very much in the “nobody knows anything” phase. Trust me on this. I can’t state it more emphatically every year – this is a best guess. We won’t really know how it is going to go until the majors ring in. And every time they do this chart will shift.
Anyway, you can check out the full chart over at MCN.
43 Responses for "It’s Getting Hot in Here – Gurus Updates"
I’m thinking more and more that this is going to be the 10. I wouldn’t be surprised if MAYBE one drops out, but I agree that the winner is there for sure. Not a bad list, actually.
I think — and, honestly, I hope — that 2 of those movies will falter in the final round. Then we can get two more interesting choices to shake things up a little. If not, then I’ll be taking a lot of naps in February. There are only 6 titles here that excite me at all.* And two of them have been around since summer.
*(The Hurt Locker, Nine, Avatar, Inglourious Basterds, Up in the Air, and… hmm, make that 5 titles.)
Would we even be talking about Avatar’s chances in a five nominee year?
‘Invictus’ Review: A Whole New Ballgame
By David Ansen | NEWSWEEK
Still hoping the academy will show some love to Where The Wild Things Are. I really liked it. So far it’s in my top 10 of the year…and I didn’t like UP – sorry I know it’s sacrilege around here but it didn’t move me the same way WALL E did.
I agree with Alfredo about “Wiild Things.” If it gets some precursor love, it had a credible shot of sneaking in. If it is snubbed, I won’t be surprised, but I will be a little disappointed. Judging from this list, if this is the BP race in March, I am far from interested.
“Would we even be talking about Avatar’s chances in a five nominee year?”
Absolutely. It was always poised to dominate the tech categories such as near best picture misses in the past like King Kong and The Matrix. Not to mention the return of James Cameron.
This is a little off topic but definitely amusing. Before you look at Pete Hammond’s predictions on that chart. Check out rotten tomatoes and see that he is one of only four critics to give a fresh rating to Old Dogs.
Saying it’s “An often riotously funny slapstick farce that ought to appeal to moviegoers of all ages.”
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/10009596-old_dogs/
Not to mention he has The Hurt Locker ranked 7. Anyone who has that movie ranked out of the top five is a little bit lost this season.
This list looks lukewarm at best.
Movie Review: ‘Invictus’: A Whole New Ballgame
By David Ansen | NEWSWEEK
http://www.newsweek.com/id/224352
A Serious Man is better than all these that I’ve seen but The Hurt Locker.
Out of the 12 I saw as front right after fest season, the 12 w/multiple votes are those 12 minus the 2 I want the most (A Single Man & Bright Star) plus Basterds and Meryl Streep…er, It’s Complicated.
I hope A Single Man & Bright Star knock two of them out, say…Basterds & Education or Invictus.
Not a bad list at all. But I agree with Ryan, it would be great to see 2 or more surprises, which shake the contest up a bit. My first 3 suggestions would be 500 Days of Summer, District 9 and Star Trek!
Instead of? Would it be a sacrilege to say that An Education only lives through Carey Mulligan but is an average film apart from that? And as much as I would love to see Inglourious Basterds: is the Academy that progressive?
Solid 10. I do think An Education (which I loved) is too high and Avatar is too low. And I’d unfortunately include A Serious Man over Inglorious Basterds. And poor Bright Star
The next 15 days should sort it all out (ending with press screenings of Avatar). I wonder if Fox Searchlight’s Hail Mary pass with Crazy Heart will make a dent. Too bad 500 Days of Summer didnt make 30 Million more dollars at the box office.
I think “A Single Man” is highly underestimated by most of the “experts”!
And yes, I agree with Ryan: All in all this list is kind of boring! If these 10 films are the most presumably choices, I urgently ask the Academy to please turn back to 5 nominees!
…or turn your attention to more intresting movies like “Broken Embraces”, “A Serious Man”, “A Single Man” or “A Prophet”!
I can’t remember such a sad year for award-caliber movies.
There’s only 3 on that list I’m mildly interested in, and even those pale in comparison to any nominee from previous years.
Roll on 2010
T.
I don’t see why Up has so much buzz for Best Picture. KEEP IT IN THE ANIMATED CATEGORY!!!
I can’t imagine The Lovely Bones getting in with the mixed reviews it’s getting, especially not over a widely well-reviewed and acclaimed film like A Serious Man.
(I do realize most of the votes on this list were probably made before the reviews for The Lovely Bones started coming out though, I’m sure by next week things will reflect that)
Thanks for the review link Soso. I’m wondering if this removes us from the embargo on the film? I hope so because I’m dying to write about Invictus.
Regarding 3-D – you know, if we are going to dismiss every technological advancement we might as well start all the way back with the advent of film itself. Or when it went color. When Ted Turner wanted to colorize old movies that went too far. But what Cameron is doing with 3-D, hell, what Zemeckis is doing with 3-D, is beyond that now – it IS art.
What really matters is Top 5 aka BP/BD combos and Top 5 from this list won`t look this way, most likely some change will occur on spots 4 and 5. or Daniels won`t get a BD nod like some predict (and having seen the movie myself, I`m sceptical of his chances).
Also, where is Holmes? I want this movie to be awesome and get in because Hunter`s passion for it and tireless awareness-raising, really moved me. I want it to rock for Hunter. So Holmes in Top 5.
That’s a pretty good list. Just hope A serious man could be a little higher. And thanks God nobody even considered Sherlock Holmes as a possible nominee !
My top choices for cooler substitutions would be A Single Man, (500) Days of Summer, A Serious Man, Bright Star. And for popular appeal — Julie & Julia or Star Trek.
If I start to wish for a foreign language film to be included — A Prophet, or The White Ribbon, even Mother — then that would start to carve into some pretty solid locks — Precious, Invictus. And that might be ok with me because both those international films are among the best of the decade and the two American movies, I suspect, are not. But that’s where the system starts to show its weakness, so I politely look away.
This is the best use of 10 nominations the Academy can come up with? The Gurus chart is dull as a brick. Happy Thanksgiving! Have a heaping second helping of the same ol’ same ol’. All the safe mediocrity you’ve come to expect from the Oscars — only this year, twice as much of it.
I wonder if that can be David Ansen’s full review. Surely not. Three paragraphs — and two of those are plot synopsis. There’s only one sentence that expresses a critical appraisal. Honestly, couldn’t anybody have written much the same thing based on what we already knew?
It’s clear he liked it, and that’s good news. But this isn’t a review, is it?
Somebody sounds a bit bitter… It would be a perfect world if your wish list could come true, Ryan.
If In the loop, A Prophet, The White Ribbon, A single Man, Bright Star, A serious Man could make it for sure, it would be amazing indeed. But I agree we know what to expect from the Oscars.
But who knows, we might be surprised. And that’s the point, isn’t it ?
Not bad, but in a perfect world, we’d be seeing Antichrist, A Serious Man and In the Loop up there. C’est la vie. As for 3-D, it’s a gimmick. We’re all being told it’s the future of cinema because of piracy. The Avatar propaganda is rather reprehensible to the point that I almost don’t want to indulge it: “If you don’t make it a hit, you’ll ruin the film industry.” Bullshit. I’ll see Avatar if I feel like it, don’t use scare tactics to make me go.
@ Jeremie. None of those people have seen Sherlock Holmes yet. It has only been screened for industry and long-lead people like TIME and NEWSWEEK. Warners are keeping it under wraps due to the name of the actor who plays Moriarty in the last scene.
#26 “Warners are keeping it under wraps due to the name of the actor who plays Moriarty in the last scene.”
Celebrity cameo that will have people talking? Like Cruise in Tropic Thunder but better? Or is it that one of the principal cast is both Moriarty and someone else, the Fight Club type of the deal? This movie can`t come soon enough!
Bright Star doesn’t have a chance in hell at a nomination. Sorry.
#26 “Warners are keeping it under wraps due to the name of the actor who plays Moriarty in the last scene.”
!! Spoiler !! (just in case, do not read any further)
So why everybody knows it’s Brad Pitt then? It is not really a secret any more. It has been all over the internet, and Empire mentions it as well a few issues ago.
And why do they have Invictus, Avatar and The Lovely Bones in their top 10 even if, as Sasha pointed it, most of them haven’t seen them yet?
Just because Sherlock Holmes is not going to make it.
If you just play the trailer by changing the names of the characters, it just looks like The Mummy or another bad adaptation of Extraordinary League Of Gentleman. Don’t get me wrong, it does look like it could be silly fun, but definitely not a film that has any chance to get any Oscars. Even with 10 nominees.
It just looks sterilized and impersonal, like any big action Hollywood buddy films, making sure to to remove all the relevant Britishness of the characters so it can appeal to a wider international audience. Just the fact that Downey Jr is playing Holmes and Pitt Moriarty is laughable when there are dozens of British actors who’d been much better.
And sorry for asking again, but what are your sources for all these secret Oscars probabilities and Warner marketing strategies. I’m still really curious to find out.
Jeremie, your fears would be allayed if you have read the script. It’s not a big action Hollywood buddy movie at all. Imagine The Man Who Would Be King meets, well, The Hound of the Baskervilles. It’s absolutely faithful to the Holmes Canon. It has comedic elements, and action set-pieces, but at its heart it is a good, old-fashioned adventure story. I admit the trailer is misleading, but it seems to be working, as it has a far higher First Choice rating than Avatar.
As for my sources, well, most people here know my real name, so they wouldn’t remain sources much longer if I revealed them.
Happy Thanksgiving!
I guess I’ll have to trust your words. And I can only be surprised, that’s always the advantage of having low expectations. But if it is nominated indeed, I will eat my hat.
I`m loving that cameo. That perosn is really tkaing cool roles these days instead of just playing up his good looks. I hope it works out grand.
I’m starting to wonder if “An Education” is as safe as many of these pundits are predicting. The buzz seems to have evaporated. No one is really talking about it anymore.
God, I hope Sherlock Holmes is better than it looks, but I have so very little faith.
I think 500 would be a worse BP nominee than Crash. And I hate Crash.
Looking at each pundit’s T5:
Precious & Up in the Air’s votes are all T5 so must have the same score as each other. Presumably -5 for each vote, so…63. Huge difference betw these and the next down.
Locker 28 (11 votes) & Invictus 26 (8); Education 15 (7) & Up 12 (7)
Nine 8 (6), Bones 4 (3), Avatar 3 (2), Serious 2 (1) (Basterds 0)
I’m guessing Up in the Air will have much, much better reviews than Precious, but Precious will have the whole white guilt thing going for it a la Crash vs. Brokeback.
I just wanted to point out that none of the people voted picked all 10 of those movies for their top 10. I’m still pulling for Nine though!
I want Bright Star in the BP race. I dont get why its such a long shot. Generally great reviews and has all the ingredients of Oscar-bait. Can someone enlighten me?? Could it be the lack of a big studio to campaign for it (like Miramax did for Campion’s The Piano)+—————-
i’m going with District 9, Precious, Hurt Lucker, A Serious Man, Invictus, Informant, Inglourious Basterds, Avatar, Lovely Bones and finally Nine.
i have 3 picks. Hurt Lucker, A Serious Man and Nine
For Your Consideration
BEST ACTOR
John Malcovich/Disgrace
Im going with:
A Single Man
The Hurt Locker
The Road
Avatar
Nine
The Lovely Bones
Precious
A Serious Man
Inglourious Basterds
White Ribbon
but THAT will probably never happen
Too many high bets for An Education. Aside from the rave reviews for Carey Mulligan, not that many people are talking about the film and some people didn’t feel for the story the way they wanted to. More importantly, how many people actually went to see the film?.
Not calling it out of the Best Picture race, but for these charts to have it in the top 5 is a little strange. Up is another film I’m not too sure about.
The absence of Bright Star is a giant, credibility-killing wound on this list.
An Education is vastly overrated.
Nothing beats slumdog
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