Indiewire’s Peter Knegt does a good job laying out the award precursors coming soon to an Oscar blog near you. Actually, you could probably say it will becoming from all sides, from every angle and outlet and social networking tool near you. I’m scared of Oscars 2009 where Twitter and Facebook are involved. There might turn out to be such a thing as too much information. “Did you hear what I’m saying to you? We don’t got no information.”
Peter mentions the following:
The Gothams November 30:
Last Year’s Big Winner: “Frozen River,” taking best feature and a breakthrough acting honor for Melissa Leo.
Mentions the Spirit Awards, which we’ll skip for now (though it’s important that Indiewire not skip them) and move on to the NBR (which I still consider the biggest precursor in the early phase):
December 3rd: National Board of Review
Last Year’s Big Winners: “Slumdog Millionaire” took its first major best picture award of the season here, as well as honors for adapted screenplay and breakthrough actor Dev Patel. Other major winners included Clint Eastwood (best actor for “Gran Torino”), Anne Hathaway (best actress for “Rachel Getting Married”), Josh Brolin (best supporting actor for “Milk”) and Penelope Cruz (best supporting actress for “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”). Their top ten list consisted of four of the five eventual best picture Oscar nominees, leaving off “The Reader.”
The NBR is much better at helping a film get into the Oscar race than it is in calling out a winner, unless it’s a winner that is going to win everything anyway, like Slumdog or No Country for Old Men. But its calling out Letters from Iwo Jima the year before was an important moment in the 2007 Oscar race because at that time Letters hadn’t yet really come forward as a major contender; most were focused on Flags on Our Fathers, which didn’t do as well. The NBR winners chart after the cut, as well as more precursor stuff.
National Board of Review Winner Chart:
| 2008 | Slumdog Millionaire | Slumdog Millionaire (8/10) |
| 2007 | No Country for Old Men | No Country for Old Men (4/5) |
| 2006 | Letters from Iwo Jima | The Departed (4/5) |
| 2005 | Good Night, and Good Luck | Crash (5/5) |
| 2004 | Finding Neverland | Million Dollar Baby (5/5) |
| 2003 | Mystic River | Return of the King (4/5) |
| 2002 | The Hours | Chicago (4/5) |
| 2001 | Moulin Rouge | A Beautiful Mind (2/5) |
| 2000 | Quills | Gladiator (2/5) |
| 1999 | American Beauty | American Beauty (2/5) |
| 1998 | Gods and Monsters | Shakespeare in Love (4/5) |
| 1997 | L.A. Confidential | Titanic (5/5) |
| 1996 | Shine | The English Patient (5/5) |
| 1995 | Sense and Sensibility | Braveheart (3/5) |
| 1994 | Pulp Fiction and Forrest Gump | Forrest Gump (5/5) |
| 1993 | Schindler’s List |
Schindler’s List (4/5) |
| 1992 | Howards End | Unforgiven (5/5) |
| 1991 | Silence of the Lambs | Silence of the Lambs (2/5) |
| 1990 | Dances With Wolves | Dances With Wolves (3/5) |
| 1989 | Driving Miss Daisy | Driving Miss Daisy (5/5) |
| 1988 | Mississippi Burning | Rain Man (2/5) |
| 1987 | Empire of the Sun | The Last Emperor (4/5) |
| 1986 | A Room with a View | Platoon (5/5) |
| 1985 | The Color Purple | Out of Africa (5/5) |
| 1984 | A Passage to India | Amadeus (4/5) |
| 1983 | Betrayal | Terms of Endearment (5/5) |
| 1982 | Gandhi | Gandhi (5/5) |
| 1981 | Chariots of Fire | Chariots of Fire (5/5) |
| 1980 | Ordinary People | Ordinary People (5/5) |
| 1979 | Manhattan | Kramer Vs. Kramer (3/5) |
| 1978 | Days of Heaven | The Deer Hunter (3/5) |
| 1977 | The Turning Point | Annie Hall(4/5) |
| 1976 | All the President’s Men | Rocky (3/5) |
| 1975 | Nashville/Barry Lyndon | One Flew Over/Cukoo’s Nest (4/5) |
| 1974 | The Conversation | Godfather II (3/5) |
| 1973 | The Sting | The Sting (1/5) |
| 1972 | Cabaret | The Godfather (4/5) |
| 1971 | MacBeth | The French Connection (3/5) |
| 1970 | Patton | Patton (3/5) |
| 1969 | They Shoot Horses, Don’t They? | Midnight Cowboy (2/5) |
| 1968 | The Shoes of the Fisherman | Oliver(4/5) |
| 1967 | Far from the Madding Crowd | In Heat of the Night (2/5) |
| 1966 | A Man for All Seasons | A Man for all Seasons (4/5) |
| 1965 | The Eleanor Roosevelt Story | the Sound of Music(5/5) |
| 1964 | Becket | My Fair Lady (3/5) |
| 1963 | Tom Jones | Tom Jones (3/3) |
| 1962 | The Longest Day | Lawrence of Arabia (2/5) |
| 1961 | Question 7 | West Side Story(4/5) |
| 1960 | Sons and Lovers | The Apartment(5/5) |
| 1959 | The Nun’s Story | Ben Hur(4/5) |
| 1958 | The Old Man and the Sea | Gigi(3/5) |
| 1957 | Bridge on the River Kwai | Bridge on the River Kwai (2/5) |
| 1956 | Around the World in 80 Days | Around/World in 80 Days (2/5) |
| 1955 | Marty | Marty (4/5) |
| 1954 | On the Waterfront | On the Waterfront (3/5) |
| 1953 | Julius Cesar | From here to Eternity(5/5) |
| 1952 | The Quiet Man | Greatest Show on Earth (1/5) |
| 1951 | A Place in the Sun | An American in Paris (5/5) |
| 1950 | Sunset Boulevard | All About Eve (2/2) |
| 1949 | The Bicycle Thief | All the King’s Men (2/5) |
| 1948 | Paisan | Hamlet (5/5) |
| 1947 | Monsieur Verdoux | Gentlemen’s Agreement(3/5) |
| 1946 | Henry V | The Best Years of Our Lives(2/5) |
| 1945 | The True Glory | The Lost Weekend(1/5) |
| 1944 | None But the Lonely Heart | Going My Way (2/5) |
| 1943 | The Ox-Bow Incident | Casablanca |
| 1942 | In Which We Serve | Mrs. Miniver |
| 1941 | Citizen Kane | How Green was my Valley |
| 1940 | The Grapes of Wrath | Rebecca |
| 1939 | Confessions of a Nazi Spy | Gone with the Wind(for previous year) |
| 1938 | The Citadel | You Can’t Take it With You |
| 1937 | Night Must Fall | The Live of Emile Zola |
| 1936 | Mr. Deeds Goes to Town | The Great Ziegfield |
| 1935 | The Informer | Mutiny on the Bounty |
| 1934 | It Happened One Night | It Happened One Night |
Here is how Peter thinks it might shakedown:
While pinpointing their specific choices are a challenge, one can assume “Invictus” (they historically love them some Clint Eastwood), “An Education,” “Up In The Air” and “Precious” will all be in the mix this time around, at least with a top 10 mention if not a major award. “Dreamgirls” failed to make their top ten in 2006, so it will be somewhat interesting to see how “Nine” plays out here. For the hell of it, I’ll suggest this for the major categories: “Precious” takes best picture and supporting actress for Mo’Nique; “Invictus” takes best director and actor for Clint Eastwood and Morgan Freeman; Meryl Streep wins best actress for both “Julie & Julia” and “It’s Complicated,” while Stanley Tucci takes a joint best supporting actor honor for “Julie & Julia” and “The Lovely Bones.”
I think they’ll go for something more palatable than Precious, however — I’m wondering if they might not choose The Messenger in a freak upset. If not that film, An Education or Up in the Air seem like they are headed for an NBoR win.
Peter then moves on:
December 13th* & 14th: Los Angeles Film Critics Awards and New York Film Critics Awards
Last Year’s Big Winners: In LA, while Oscar snubees “WALL-E” and the ultra deserving Sally Hawkins took top honors for best picture and actress, eventually Oscar winners Danny Boyle, Sean Penn, Heath Ledger and Penelope Cruz all won here as well. In New York, “Milk” and “Happy-Go-Lucky” swept the awards, with the former taking picture, actor and supporting actor, and the latter taking director and actress. Sweeper Penelope Cruz was also in the mix for “Vicky Cristina Barcelona.”
The LA Film Critics can sometimes make a huge difference. Their choosing There Will Be Blood the No Country year seem to really announce that film’s presence with authority – on the other hand, it might have been headed that way anyway. The LAFCA and the NYFCC are funny these days; they didn’t used to disagree just to disagree but one gets the feeling that they like to be contrary — or perhaps that is a lame way of saying it. They don’t like to go along with the herd is perhaps a better way of saying it. Choosing Wall-E over Slumdog, for instance.
Anyway, here’s my predictions, for what it’s worth: Both groups honor Kathryn Bigelow as best director and Christoph Waltz and Mo’Nique in the supporting categories. In LA, “The Hurt Locker” takes best picture, while “A Serious Man” wins in New York. Morgan Freeman and Carey Mulligan win LA lead acting honors, while Colin Firth and Tilda Swinton (for “Julia,” in a bit of a surprise… though “Antichrist”‘s Charlotte Gainsbourg might be another one to look for if they go the anti-Oscar precursor route) win in New York.
I think Peter is spot on here — except for the tiny fact that no one likes to be a foregone conclusion – writing these predictions could slightly alter their outcome. I definitely agree that The Hurt Locker is up for major awards in the critics run of the race – and I think it will start winning stuff starting here, with the LAFCA and the NYFCC. The main reason for this, I think, is that they go two ways. They either pluck a surprise out of the race that people have not yet seen, or else they honor a film that really could use the push and is being ignored for whatever reason. Also, I think the strong voices in the LAFCA really loved and supported The Hurt Locker.
The rest of Peter’s predictions, for the BFCA and the Globes, we”ll have to save until it’s time to cover them — but Peter knows his stuff so he’s well worth popping over there for a read.
Here is an LA Film Critics chart for your reading pleasure, winner to winner (red means won Best Pic, blue means nommed for Best Pic):
| 2008 | Wall-E | Slumdog Millionaire |
| 2007 | There Will Be Blood | No Country for Old Men |
| 2006 | Letters from Iwo Jima | The Departed |
| 2005 | Brokeback Mountain | Crash |
| 2004 | Sideways | Million Dollar Baby |
| 2003 | American Splendour | Return of the King |
| 2002 | About Schmidt | Chicago |
| 2001 | In the Bedroom | A Beautiful Mind |
| 2000 | Crouching Tiger | Gladiator |
| 1999 | The Insider | American Beauty |
| 1998 | Saving Private Ryan | Shakespeare in Love |
| 1997 | L.A. Confidential | Titanic |
| 1996 | Secrets & Lies | The English Patient |
| 1995 | Leaving Las Vegas | Braveheart |
| 1994 | Pulp Fiction | Forrest Gump |
| 1993 | Schindler’s List | Schindler’s List |
| 1992 | Unforgiven | Unforgiven |
| 1991 | Bugsy | Silence of the Lambs |
| 1990 | Goodfellas | Dances With Wolves |
| 1989 | Do the Right Thing | Driving Miss Daisy |
| 1988 | Little Dorrit | Rain Man |
| 1987 | Hope and Glory | The Last Emperor |
| 1986 | Hannah and Her Sisters | Platoon |
| 1985 | Brazil | Out of Africa |
| 1984 | Amadeus | Amadeus |
| 1983 | Terms of Endearment | Terms of Endearment |
| 1982 | E.T. | Gandhi |
| 1981 | Atlantic City | Chariots of Fire |
| 1980 | Raging Bull | Ordinary People |
| 1979 | Kramer Vs. Kramer | Kramer Vs. Kramer |
| 1978 | Coming Home | The Deer Hunter |
| 1977 | Star Wars | Annie Hall |
| 1976 | Network | Rocky |
| 1975 | Dog Day Afternoon | One Flew Over/Cukoo’s Nest |
30 Responses for "Guide to the Precursers"
Excellent work on both your parts, Sasha and Peter. I’d love to see some Charlotte Gainsbourg love too.
This is the best time for award speculations!
Three weeks from now, we are all exhausted like hell…
I’m especially interested in who they choose for Best Actress. That category seems all over the place right now. Of course, Best Picture doesn’t look much better at this point. I can’t believe it’s already this time of year. The Globe nominations are now just 2 weeks away. Crazy.
the top ten compilations are always the most accurate precursor – until you get to the Directors Guild noms. When you drop out docs, animated and foreign language, the top tens are right on – although they do penalize the very late releases somewhat.
I think top tens put critics into a position very similar to awards voters and are a much better guide to critical response than reviews…. in part because the critic is looking at the year as a whole, and in part because the critic is making choices that represents his values/beliefs/politics/relationships by ranking films, like an awards voter.
SAG PREDICTIONS
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Penelope Cruz/Nine
Anna Kendrick/Up in the Air
Mo´nique/Precious*
Julianne Moore/A Single Man
Samantha Morton/The Messenger
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Alec Baldwin/It´s Complicated
Matt Damon/Invictus
Woody Harrelson/The Messenger
Alfred Molina/An Education
Christoph Waltz/Inglourious Basterds*
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Shroreh Agdashloo/The Stoning of Soraya M.
Abbie Cornish/Bright Star
Carey Mulligan/An Education*
Gabourey Sidibe/Precious
Meryl Streep/Julie & Julia
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Jeff Bridges/Crazy Heart*
George Clooney/Up in the Air
Colin Firth/A Single Man
Morgan Freeman/Invictus
Jeremy Renner/The Hurt Locker
ENSEMBLE
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Nine*
Precious
Up in the Air
Meryl Streep is on the cover of VF January issue that hits the stands this week. I would think that’s going to help her chances with the precursers.
The preview article online seems to make a nice case for her comedic talents and preparation.
i have a bizarre feeling that the globes and sag are the two precursors that will help sandra bullock. she is much loved in hollywood and by her peers…
Great work guys! For some more analysis of the NBR (including the best supporting and primary acting races and director), check out the following:
http://www.awardscircuit.com/Articles2009/nbrseries1.html
http://www.awardscircuit.com/Articles2009/nbrseries2.html
http://www.awardscircuit.com/Articles2009/nbrseries3.html
Really? NYFCC has solidly predicted the eventual BP winner for THIRTY-FOUR YEARS STRAIGHT?? That’s a pretty impeccable track record.
I really don’t understand why people are betting on Carey Mulligan. It’s a subtle performance and she’s too young. Her buzz is fading.
I think that the actual Oscar winner will be either Sidibe or Streep. Streep will be a great story – a third Oscar on her 16th nomination. She has the good will from last year and the many great performances she was snubbed for. She’s playing Julia Child (!) and it’s a comic performance, which I think will work for her. After all, she’s the queen of drama and giving her an Oscar for a comedy will be refreshing.
Sidibe has the great story and the film that seems to be a really big contender. Come on, they’d love to have Sidibe on stage more and I bet the campaign will be huge.
On Bullock: I doubt she’s getting a nomination. Streep, Sidibe, Mulligan and probably Mirren are nearly locked up. The fifth will be up to Abbie Cornish, Marion Cotillard, Michelle Pfeiffer (she could have a real shot if the HFPA nominates her and I think she could make it).
Anyway, I think the NBR will go with Streep. Just a hunch.
Wouldn’t it be surprisingly bizarre if Shohreh Aghdashloo appears all over the place this awards season. She did get some great reviews for The Stoning of Soraya M. It would be refreshing to see a new face in this Best Actress race.
Mulligan will do very well at the BIFAs and the BAFTAs. She could have a similar trek to Kate Winslet.
If you’re referring to Kate Winslet’s precursors’ history from last year — I wouldn’t say that. I think that rather Streep will repeat Winslet’s precursors’ history from last year (if any).
Mulligan will probably do well with critics and could even win the Golden Globe (even though I’m betting on Sidibe for now), but I doubt she will win the SAG. And Winslet won both the Golden Globe and the SAG (even though in supporting for The Reader).
About Aghdashloo: it would be great to see her nominated, but I wouldn’t bet on it for now, even though the fifth slot is up in the air right now and even though Marion Cotillard is a likely nominee, I don’t think she’s all locked up.
I think Mulligan, Streep, and even Bullock have a far better chance with the SAG and Globes. Meryl won the SAG last year so they might want to spread the wealth around and Mulligan’s just the type of ingenue they’d fawn over (British, fantastic reviews, putting a firm foot into the industry). She’s also in Brothers, which some critics like. I think she has a lot going for her and that’s why she stays in conversation.
Well, she has a lot going for her and she should stay in conversation. I agree about that. But at the same time her buzz is fading, another critics’ darling is up there (Sidibe) and I think that her chances aren’t what they were considered to be.
About the SAG: I think that Meryl has a really good shot at repeating. After all, she needs the SAG the most to be considered the front-runner and even though she won last year, the SAG has given Renee Zellweger two SAG Awards in two years, simply because she was the favorite the second time around. I think it’s going to happen this year as well.
And actually, the Screen Actors Guild is a different voting body than the Academy’s actors branch. They snubbed Hilary Swank for Boys Don’t Cry when everybody was talking about her performance. They went with a Hollywood insider (Bening). They voted for Sarandon in 1995. So I think it works for Streep more than for Mulligan. After all, I think a lot of voters would consider Mulligan too young for their award.
When younger actresses (in their early 20’s) won Oscars (or SAG Awards) in the past, they were usually BIG STORIES or HOLLYWOOD BABES.
Gwyneth Paltrow was nearly 27 when she won for SHAKESPEARE IN LOVE, but she was in the best picture winner, she had the Hollywood background, she had the Miramax campaign and her main competitor was Cate Blanchett, who at the time was a big nobody, pretty much like Carey Mulligan.
Hilary Swank was nearly 26 when she won for BOYS DON’T CRY, but this was the type of a performance that not only wins critics’ awards, but gets a really HUGE attention from the media. There was the real talk about the performance because of the nature of the role.
And of course, the youngest best actress winner MARLEE MATLIN, but you know that they were not only honoring her work, but her Cinderella story as well.
For a young (and unknown) actress to win the Oscar, I think she needs not only critical acclaim and being in a well-liked film (and let’s not forget that while very good, Carey’s performance is subtle and the Academy isn’t really that much into subtlety), but a big real life story. That’s my point with Sidibe. There you have the story. There you have the critical acclaim and there you have the film (and the character) that would make them feel good voting for her.
But I think that Sidibe and Mulligan are vying for the attention of the same voting block, which could do wonders for Meryl Streep, who could very well win given how weak this year is for actresses and benefiting from way too many past snubs and the momentum she has from last year. This is my point.
I wouldn’t call Carey a nobody by any means. In fact, after Sundance, she became somebody and now has quite a few projects lined up. She’s working with top-ranked people in An Education (Emma Thompson, Alfred Molina) and runs away with the film. That’s quite an accomplishment.
The Brits will remember her well-received stints on Dr. Who, Bleak House, and Pride and Prejudice. BAFTA will certainly look twice at her.
She was in Public Enemies with Depp and Marion Cotillard. She’s in a new Oliver Stone film. I mean, this girl is seriously holding her own. She’s not a baby in this industry. She just needed a breakout role, and An Education was it.
Yet, the LAFCC winners are all outstanding choices. Brazil, Raging Bull, American Splendour, Wall-E. Go LA…
Don’t forget that Carey Mulligan is also in Brothers with Natalie Portman, Tobey Maguire, and Jake Gyllenhaal.
I’d laugh if Abbie Cornish came in and won it all. Best performance of the year (along with Shohreh). But it seems nobody believes in her right now, even though Bright Star picked up 4 major noms at the Satellites – Picture, Director, Actress, Screenplay.
Carey Mulligan’s award trail reminds me a lot of Cate Blanchett in Elizabeth. Sweep the Globes and SAGs, but never the Oscar.
And the next year Blanchett got involved in something big like The Talented Mr. Ripley, just as Ms. Mulligan is with Money Never Sleeps.
Just a thought…
ladylurks:
I also think (still) that Abbie Cornish stands a decent chance at an Oscar nomination. She’s by no means a lock, but I also don’t think she can be easily dismissed, especially after Holly Hunter raved about her in one of those Variety Actors-on-Actors blurbs (similar to when Ben Affleck praised Jeremy Renner and Martin Sheen praised Hal Holbrook.)
#19
Well, not everybody takes the Satellite awards seriously. I’m with you though. There are some great female performances out there that no one is talking about. That’s why it amazes me when people start talking about Sandra Bullock. They say Bullock starred in two big hits this year and that she’s very likeable in the industry but never get around to talking about her performance in The Blind Side. I still don’t think it’s happening for her this year. I feel Cornish and Aghdashloo have more of a chance at these precursors.
I’m very excited to see who the NBR awards, especially for Best Actress because everyone seems to be in agreement that it’s either gonna go to Mulligan, Sidibe or Streep. To be honest, that would be very sad. Those performances, while solid, are nothing spectacular.
Also, let’s not be to quick to name her the frontrunner if Carey Mulligan does indeed win the NBR. Remember that Anne Hathaway won the NBR last year and she pratically took home every critic award out there, but still lost the GG and the SAG. Mulligan can be this year’s Hathaway.
Are people really, honestly, truly still hanging on to Michelle fucking Pfieffer?
She’s OUT. O. U. T. Accept it. It’s quite delusional and pathetic that there are still people who think she can be a contender.
There was never any buzz when the film premiered, and there isn’t any buzz now. Oh wait, there was, it was just NEGATIVE.
And yet The Lovely Bones gets bad reviews from trashy British tabloids and Ronan is immediately written off.
Hypocrisy and fanboyism at its best.
his awards season will be very interesting.
It’s still hard to say what the nominations will look like come Oscar time. It may be a year like 2005, when the Golden Globes had 3 BP nominations for films that never got BP nods at the Oscars. Even more surprising was that Crash, the eventual Oscar BP winner, was NOT nominated for BP at the Globes. If I’d have to guess right now, I’d say BP winner at the Oscars would be The Hurt Locker, just because it’s been around, talk about, has been raved and loved, and has that thrill that will shake up the Oscars this year. In particular is talk that we can finally have the first female Best Director winner Kathryn Bigelow. (last year’s record maker was Heath Ledger, who became yet another posthumous winner, that had everyone talking even before: could he win? last posthumous winner was Peter Finch way back in the 70s) If you talk about it enough, Oscar will grant the wish. That’s why I think Hurt Locker has that chance, with female director and the fact it would be the first war picture (contempary at that) to win since Platoon. But this is mere speculation since I haven’t seen it yet, but it sounds like it has a lot going for it.
Best Actor is difficult to perceive, but I’d like to see the Academy honor Jeff Bridges. Day-Lewis won’t get the award, George Clooney is too soon for his second. Perhaps Colin Firth or even Michael Sheen may take it home, but I think Jeff Bridges, at this point, will do.
Best Actress is so diverse, but I would have to jump on the Meryl Streep wagon. It’s about time she earns a third Oscar, since she IS the most nominated performer ever! Sure, it’s for Julie and Julia, but let’s finally honor her. The other possible contenders seem to unknown, and I think the Academy may feel sorry for her snub for Doubt last year, so let’s just wait and see.
Best Supporting Actor is too difficult, but I don’t think Christoph W. will get it for IB. The last two winners in this category were from some grim material, so they may award it to somebody in a moving drama or light comedy.
Best Supporting Actress is too difficult as well, and usually is over the past years. It’s possible Monique will get this, but really??
http://www.apple.com/trailers/weinstein/nine/hd/
Newest Nine trailer.
Just saw Stoning of Soraya M. and Ms. Aghdashloo is just terrific. Is there any buzz surrounding her performance?
The Gotham Awards just finished. Did you guys watch? The Hurt Locker won Best Feature and Best Ensemble.
Geez, I missed Gotham totally.
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