Looming Large
2008 is shaping up to be another year of an Oscar season that echoes the 1970s. At this stage of the game, when so many of the big guns have held their movies back in an unusual, somewhat daring move, two films still seem to define both the era in which we are living and the Oscar year we are about to live through. The Dark Knight and Wall-E.
Both films are apocalyptic in their view of the state of the things, both films feature an untraditional hero and both films challenge authority, especially when it has become too focused on the wrong goal. While the mood could dramatically shift after November 4, the upcoming Oscar films, the Best Picture candidates, seem to take over where last year left off: the individual, not the institution is what counts. Gone are the heroic leaders and reliable good government confronting the evil forces of other countries. The evil, it seems, is right here in America where the institutions on which we have built our belief systems have crumbled before our eyes in the last ten or twenty years.
Frost/Nixon, Revolutionary Road, Defiance and Doubt, too, each fit perfectly with this idea that nothing is what it seems — not the American dream, not the institute of organized religion, not the presidency. Of these, Defiance is the most traditional in terms of good and evil, right and wrong: there is no gray area with the Holocaust. But it’s the title, Defiance, that brings to mind a personal revolution to take justice into one’s hands and fight until the death.
The end of the year will still bring surprises though there are some films already that have so much heat on them their flame is likely to burn brightly through the next few months. One of them is most especially Rachel Getting Married. It doesn’t fit in with the handful of films that seem to resonate with social injustice and distrust of authority but it is something entirely different: it is an organic surprise. It came from nowhere with little fanfare, directed by Jonathan Demme who has long since been counted out. Always beware the underestimated director, actor or writer.
It has Jenny Lumet attached, the daughter of beloved Sidney, which means she’s almost guaranteed an Oscar nomination and could even win in that category. Maybe it sounds crazy to even contemplate such a thing at this stage but there is a bit of pedigree that can’t be denied. It helps that it’s a great script. In addition, it has a star turn by Anne Hathaway who uglies up a bit and plays an annoying character to perfection. She will likely be swept along with the film’s palpable heat.
Speaking of underestimated, though Clint Eastwood was cock-blocked by Martin Scorsese two years back, he is entering this year’s race from behind, very much an underestimated threat. Why? Because no one has seen Gran Torino. It remains a big, fat question mark, and those are easy to project positive things on. We all imagine it will be good — hope it will be — but there is always the chance that it won’t live up to expectations, even if those expectations were imposed upon it in an unfair fashion to begin with; it isn’t Clint’s fault or the movie’s fault that there is so much chatter going on before Oscar movies. I am not one to lament this as some writers are wont to do (even if they contribute to it just as much). It is what it is. The chatter can’t be denied. Right now, all eyes are on Eastwood even though his film is but one of the veiled surprises the season has yet to deliver on.
The practice of making predictions early before films have been seen should only be taken for what it really is: a guessing game, a really fun guessing game. It’s sort of like trying to use facts to prove religion exists. You will never find answers of something that has no basis in reality. Reality, really, is beside the point. Still, this makes it somewhat tricky for publicists to position their film to be seen outside the circle of chatter where there are simply too many people eager to pounce on a film out of the gate.
At any rate, Tom O’Neil has put together a group of folks to put in their predictions, it looks like weekly. Jeff Wells has his Oscar balloon which has what he considers the best contenders and David Poland does his Gurus of Gold. Our delightful and delicious Ryan also offers up the Sultans of Bling, which can probably best be defined as wishful thinking; they make no excuses. The heart wants what it wants and I’ve always admired this devil-may-care approach to predicting. After all, who cares? If it’s all fun and games anyway why not mix it up? Hopefully Ryan will be pulling out the Sultans again in the coming weeks.
Let’s look at Best Pic, how people are predicting it. Hollywood-Elsewhere’s Oscar Balloon:
Australia, Che, Milk, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Revolutionary Road, Frost/Nixon, Doubt, The Reader, The Visitor, The Dark Knight, The Wrestler, Gran Torino, Nothing But the Truth, WALL-E, Brothers, Slumdog Millionaire
Tom O’Neil’s crew (going by those with at least two votes)
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
Frost/Nixon
The Dark Knight
Benjamin Button
Australia
As you can see, these are all over the map. The Gurus of Gold, finally, has:
Frost/Nixon
Revolutionary Road
Benjamin Button
Slumdog Millionaire
Milk
The Dark Knight is next. Doubt seems way down on the list. If I were today to name the films I thought had the best shot, I would not do it based on what these lists reveal. After all, it is just fun and games, right? I would go with what I consider to be the key themes in the race: darkness, personal justice and finally, what the big picture is telling. The Dark Knight looms so large right now, still, that I can’t see it snubbed. One never knows, of course, but it is everything the Oscars are supposed to be about. Sure, it doesn’t have a teary redemption scene, and it’s based on a comic book, AND it’s a sequel. But still. $500 plus million doesn’t lie.
Organic hits thus far: The Dark Knight, Slumdog Millionaire, and Rachel Getting Married . On the horizon, with the most potential: Milk, Revolutionary Road, Benjamin Button, Australia, Frost/Nixon, Gran Torino, and of course, Doubt. I could be wrong but I think The Reader has had too much bad publicity but if it’s good enough it might overcome.
70 Responses for "The State of the Race: Darkness and Play"
Looks like FROST/NIXON, REVOLUTIONARY ROAD and BENJAMIN BUTTON are everyone’s picks, with titles like THE DARK KNIGHT, MILK, AUSTRALIA and SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE within hailing distance.
I am happy to see that you have posed the possibility of RACHEL GETTING MARRIED, which I saw over the weekend and am thrilled with. You now even have it on the sidebar. Kudos!
The inde, THE VISITOR by Tom McCarthy, which received superlative reviews, deserves recognition, as does WALL-E is a crossover (which you have suggested is still possible).
I think Dark Knight is almost a done deal. Given that Academy has been criticized as being out of touch with movie goers (and given that low TV ratings of the award ceremony) Academy has no choice but nominate TDK. Milk, Australia, Frost/Nixon. Revolutionary Road and Benjamin Button – probably Defiance if it opens to good reviews- are the contenders for 3 spots. I am sure the Academy will reserve one spot for a small/independent movie. I suspect that spot could go to Rachel Getting married given the great reviews it has received.
My possible list:
The Dark Knight
Rachel Getting Married
Frost/Nixon
Revolutionary Road
Benjamin Button or Australia (depending on reviews they will receive)
I have reserved doubts about Australia and Frost/Nixon. Ron Howard may be liked occasionally, but I get the feeling the film could turn out too vanilla/oscar-baity for anyone’s tastes. And I don’t quite get the hype for Australia. As much as I adore Baz Luhrmann and I get the star power, I don’t see how this could be as HUGE as everyone is making claim.
I think Revolutionary Road is a shoe-in unless it also turns out to be too vanilla, but I have high hopes for it. The trailer straddles the oscar-bait line for me, but it won me over in the end.
my list would be:
The Dark Knight
Revolutionary Road
Milk
Wall-E (come on it deserves it!)
Benjamin Button (Fincher’s due for this?)
I really want to see Slumdog Millionare. Sunshine is one of the best sci-fi flicks in recent memory, if not the best.
Don’t be so certain, Sertan:
“The Academy has no choice but to nominate TDK.”
That’s a pretty big assumption. The Academy has the choice to nominate whatever films they wan’t. Do you think voters 65+ years of age are really going to care if the telecast gets good ratings or not? It’s this demographic that could very well keep TDK from making the final five. If TDK gets snubbed, I would be disappointed, but not surprised.
“Do you think voters 65+ years of age are really going to care…”
Voters 65+ couldn’t stop Juno. (Damn them.
)
What about the most promissing apocalyptic film of the year with: two oscar winners THERON & DUVALL, one nominee MORTENSEN and a potential breakthrough SMITT-MCPHEE.
Directed by a talented filmmaker based on a material by Corman McCarthy and with the right people in technical departments.
I think THE ROAD will punch hard because of the times we are living.
so…
“a guessing game, a really fun guessing game”
PIC
Australia
The Dark Knight
Revolutionary Road
The Road
Slumdog Millionaire
DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle/Slumdog Millionaire
John Hillcoat/The Road
Baz Luhrman/Australia
Christopher Nolan/The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant/Milk
Leonardo DiCaprio/Revolutionary Road
Frank Langella/Frost-Nixon
Viggo Mortensen/The Road
Sean Penn/Milk
Mickey Rourke/The Wrestler
Anne Hathaway/Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins/Happy-Go-Lucky
Kristin Scott Thomas/I´ve Loved You So Long
Meryl Streep/Doubt
Kate Winslet/Revolutionary Road
Josh Brolin/Milk
Phillip Seymour Hoffman/Doubt
Heath Ledger/The Dark Knight
Liev Schreiber/Defiance
Kodi Smitt-McPhee/The Road
Penelope Cruz/Vicky Christina Barcelona
Viola Davis/Doubt
Rosemarie DeWitt/Rachel Getting Married
Marisa Tomei/The Wrestler
Debra Winger/Rachel Getting Married
ORIGINAL
Australia
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
The Visitor
Wall-E
ADAPTED
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Revolutionary Road
The Road
Slumdog Millionaire
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Revolutionary Road
The Road
FILM EDITING
Australia
The Dark Knight
Frot/Nixon
The Road
Slumdog Millionaire
“WALL-E” is pretty dead at the moment, I’d say. Even the critics who were going crazy for it earlier this year have forgotten about it now (the same critics who won’t chose it as their film of the year in December, but will still chastise Oscar for doing the same thing, just like last year with “Ratatouille”).
“The Dark Knight”s heat seems to be softening as well it seems, but I’m sure by the time all the Oscar films are released, there will be many that fall by the way-side and everyone will “remember” it again. (“Remember” isn’t the right word, but you know what I mean).
Don’t be too fooled by age: I’m 55 and think “The Dark Knight” is a masterpiece and the best film of the year. Remember, an elder Academy gave “Silence of the Lambs” a Best Film win. On the other hand, they couldn’t give a gay love story a deserving win. “TDK” deserves a Best Pic nod, but probably won’t be nominated. I do see Christopher Nolan being nominated for Director.
Right now, it looks like “Benjamin Button” and “Milk” are right up Oscar Alley; “Defiance” should be a shoo-in what with its subject matter and buzz but the Acad doesn’t seem to like Zwick. I look at it this way: Look at the 10 possible writing nominees.
ORIG SCREENPLAY: Happy-Go-Lucky, Milk, Rachel Getting Married, Vicky Cristina Barcelona and (fighting for 5th sport) Changeling, Australia or Last Chance Harvey.
ADPT SCREENPLAY: Curious Case of Benj Button, Doubt, Frost/Nixon, Revolutionary Road and (fighting for 5th spot) Defiance, Slumdog Millionaire and The Dark Knight.
In there you’ll find the five. And I don’t think “Vicky,” “Harvey” and “Happy” are legitimate BF contenders. And then there were seven.
Articles like this are why I love Awards Daily… Good job, Sasha.
I agree that we’re all forgetting about The Road lately. It rreally has the potential to surprise.
I also think that it will either be Rachel Getting Married OR Slumdog Millionaire, not both.
I think if they do something for sure, those “old” members will nominate something from Clint Eastwood movie. I believe Angelina Jolie has the best shot at nomination, and may be Clint himself as director!!!
And Sasha I truly like this site. Very well done job!!!
I am here every day!!! I am a marketing professor and the other day i used this site as an example for good targeting. I think some of my MBA students got very interested too
Ivan, I think you have a lot of very good guesses there, especially in the first six categories…
While I thought The Dark Knight was a well-made film, I was really disappointed by the fact that all the villains were either black, Asian, or Italian, or if they weren’t an ethnic or racial minority, they were crazy and covered in make-up (with the minor exception of Scarecrow/Cillian Murphy at the beginning). Sure, there were some “ethnic” good guys, too, but there was no balance on villain side. As an Asian man, I’m tired of seeing the same stereotypes of people in the margins. And as a fan of Chris Nolan’s work, I’m really disappointed that he decided to opt for this particular route in casting.
I think you’re bang-on with your ’70s analogy. The Dark Knight is doing what Star Wars and Jaws did back in the day, which was to tackle heavy political subjects through an entertaining lens. Many of the themes in TDK were explored last year in No Country for Old Men but the average teenager couldn’t care less about a strange little art film like that. Therefore being entertained while subconsciously taking in notions of paranoia and individuality is really what is putting this film over-the-top.
“That’s a pretty big assumption. The Academy has the choice to nominate whatever films they wan’t. Do you think voters 65+ years of age are really going to care if the telecast gets good ratings or not? It’s this demographic that could very well keep TDK from making the final five. If TDK gets snubbed, I would be disappointed, but not surprised.”
You’re right about the demographic but that demographic is changing ever-so-slightly. Let’s look at the thing no one ever talks about – who really votes for the Academy Awards? Almost every single Academy member I’ve ever spoken with, except one, votes by committee. I heard of a guy last year who called everyone he worked with into his office and they voted on what to put down. Most old guys give it to their children, grandchildren, mistress, wife, maid or assistant.
The Dark Knight is a success by anyone’s definition. We’re also talking about a group that nominated The Towering Inferno (won 3 Oscars!), E.T. and Jaws (also won 3) for Best Picture. This is an Academy that is more realistic about the business side of the film business.
It isn’t just low ratings we’re talking about. It’s about being in touch.
not sure if its been posted, but for any one interested in the foreign film race, mexico recently announced their submission will be “arrancame la vida” w/ ana claudia talacon (of “fast food nation” and “crime of father amaro” fame)… the film, directed by roberto sneider, is based on what i hear is a well regarded mexican novel of the same name (by Ángeles Mastretta)…
i leave you with a link to the trailer (which is in spanish, sorry…)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m-SoV2eJxFM
maybe fox will release in the U.S. as well…
Let me be as diplomatic as I can be in saying that Sasha’s hyperbolic article expresses one reality & the Academy’s overwhelmingly 60+ & over membership will express another. I’ll venture a wild stab in the dark here & suggest that the two are highly unlikely to meet.
Where TDK’s fans see a dark masterpiece Academy members will think ‘So it’s dark, so what? Dark doesn’t equal deep.’ Where Batman fans see profound themes & peerless storytelling Academy members see a mean, sadistic & sloppily told narrative, clumsily directed, & undeserving of a Golden Globe nom much less an Oscar for Best Picture.
Quite honestly Wall-E has a better chance of a nom than TDK because that film is much more coherent thematically, narratively & aside from anything else a pleasant diversion for viewers of all ages. I don’t know whether it will actually win anything but it has a much better shot at a nomination IMO.
None of that matters. I agree, TDK is a deeply flawed film, but it’s rare that they vote for the Best Picture anyway. It’s a popularity contest and everyone knows it.
Zed, I’ll be as diplomatic as I can be too, and remind you that the Academy’s supposedly “overwhelmingly 60+” membership shrivels in comparison to the Academy’s actual overwhelming membership represented in the tech categories.
Total Voting Members – 5829
Actors – 1243
You’ll say there are older members in the tech category rosters too, and I’ll argue that artists of any age involved behind the camera continue to be excited by advancements in their respective crafts. They’re not a doddering gang of antique Norma Desmonds, remnants of a bygone age.
“Academy members see a mean, sadistic & sloppily told narrative, clumsily directed…”
Now I’m lost. What’s the point of bringing up ‘Crash’?
“Where TDK’s fans see a dark masterpiece Academy members will think ‘So it’s dark, so what?”
Notice how Zed thinks “TDK fans” and “Academy members” live on different planets. The biggest box-office/critical/pop-cultural sensation in a decade, yet nobody in the industry much cared for it. Right.
I have predicted The Dark Knight for many, many months and obviously I am not alone. I will have it in my top five until the day of nominations. I truthfully do not see how it can be forgotten.
As for the other four–Rachel Getting Married is currently the only film out right now that truly has a shot for a best picture nomination. I don’t think Happy-Go-Lucky will make it. Maybe a best actress nomination for Sally Hawkins.
I think the final four will be Benjamin Button, Australia, Frost/Nixon, and Slumdog Millionaire. Frost/Nixon is making its world premiere at the London Film Festival tomorrow, so we’ll see how it is received.
And I am sooo anxious for the Road. It could really surprise. It’s such a phenomenal book, and it has a great, great cast. It’s one to look out for.
Early Predictions…
Best Picture
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
Milk
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Revolutionary Road
Best Director
Christopher Nolan
David Fincher
Gus Van Sant
Danny Boyle
Jonathan Demme
Best Actor
Sean Penn, Milk
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Dustin Hoffman, Last Chance Harvey
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
I am always speechless when I see people say what the Academy is going to do or not do as if they all meet in a room to debate their choices. Remember, the nominating process is from 5829 members “individual” minds.
Having said that, I think a lot of members in various branches will support TDK in the way that they did Star Wars, Raiders, Jaws, and The Lord of the Rings trio. Whether or not it will win is a separate issue.
“It’s a popularity contest and everyone knows it.”
Noah, popularity is merely one factor amongst many & I won’t be the first nor the last to observe that if box office popularity were the primary determinant of Oscars then a whole lot of other movies would have won BP in their respective years.
Ryan, I’m afraid you’re letting your inner Batboy run away with you so you’ll understand if I decline to answer your squeals of outrage with a response ..
.. well apart from this anyway:
Notice how Zed thinks “TDK fans” and “Academy members” live on different planets. ”
Ahem! Exhibit one – two typical Academy voters review The Dark Knight:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUTrh2ueqtU
So, yes, actually I do think most Academy voters & TDK fans live on two different planets. Oh. & spare me that stuff about Semple having written the tv Batman therefore we can’t take anything he says seriously. That won’t wash. Your best bet is to hope – actually, PRAY – that the views expressed by those two are not representative of the Academy. But given the general age & taste of the AMPAS – which is far more in tune with Marcia & Lorenzo’s than the teens & 20-somethings slavering over TDK – that seems unlikely.
But don’t fret, Ryan, as I’m sure that when it comes to the MTV awards TDK will no doubt scoop everything in sight.
Just to add to my last post that although I don’t think TDK will score any major Oscar nominations I do think tech nods seem likely. So I’ll go that far!
From my Oscarwatching experience, TDK is a tech nodee kind of movie. The Ledger is a lock. I do not see beyond that. But it has such a buzz online, I don’t know if it’s a buzz that’s feeding itself among the —excuse the word, fanboys or the real deal. My sense is that TDK is ummmm, another American Gangster (a “masterpiece” of its genre, with a strong supporting perf).
As for Wall-E, my niece fell asleep watching it. Am I wrong to say the buzz isn’t there anymore?
“As for Wall-E, my niece fell asleep watching it…”
Nothing against your niece, RichardA. I’m sure she’s adorable. But she’s not representative of the Academy nor is she the target audience (unless she’s over 20). WALL-E is the most adult of any Pixar film.
I don’t think anyone is predicting WALL-E for a Best Picture nom, but I’d expect a few nominations other than Best Feature Animation (which it will win).
[WALL-E is also about 5 million away from passing Hancock as the 4th biggest domestic earner of 2008. And by a measure mentioned in another recent post, WALL-E is "best-reviewed movie of the year" with a 93 on Metacritic. Second-best-reviewed movie of the year? That would be The Dark Knight. ]
Oh goody, early predix.
BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Gran Torino
Milk
The Road
Slumdog Millionaire
DIRECTOR
Fincher
Eastwood
Van Sant
Hillcoat
Boyle
ACTOR
Benicio Del Toro
Clint Eastwood
Richard Jenkins
Sean Penn
Mickey Rourke
ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway
Melissa Leo
Kristin Scott Thomas
Meryl Streep
Kate Winslet (Reader)
S. ACTOR
Josh Brolin (Milk)
Ralph Fiennes (Bruges, Reader or Duchess)
Heath Ledger
Brad Pitt (Burn After Reading)
Kodi Smit-McPhee
S. ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz
Taraji P. Henson
Freida Pinto (Slumdog)
Marisa Tomei
Elsa Zylberstein
ORIG. SCREENPLAY
Frozen River
Gran Torino
In Bruges
Milk
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
ADAP. SCREENPLAY
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
The Reader
The Road
Slumdog Millionaire
I hate to break it to you guys but I highly doubt that wall-e will get nominated for best picture. Although it was a great film overall I highly doubt it. Since it basically has high ratings just as high(according to rotten tomatoes and other sources) as finding nemo yet it lacks the box office gross. Finding nemo made more money but it wasn’t nominated for best picture. But there is no doubt in my mind that Wall-E will win best animated picture. The only other animated picture to rival it is Kung Fu Panda which I just loved.
As for The Dark Knight I don’t know if it’ll win but there is no doubt in my mind that it should be nominated for best picture. The Dark Knight truly deserves the honor of being the first superhero movie ever nominated now whether or not it’ll win I’ll have to wait. I can’t judge any other movies before I see it so only time will tell. But Heath Ledger for best supporting actor he’s basically got a LOCK on that oscar the only way he’ll loose is for 2 reasons the academy is full of idiots(yes SOME of them don’t even own blu-rays and they’re paid to watch film true fact) or There will be another performance that will blow us all away a performance so Legendary it would have be the equivalent to Antony Hopkins performance in silence of the Lamb or Marlon Brando’s performance in The Godfather personally I think ledger’s performance is on that level.
Now as in other awards I’ve heard all about the other movies slumdog millionaire, Revolutionary road(titanic cast), The curious case of benjamin button, milk, etc… but Let’s just wait to see how good they will be actually I saw online a lot of people were predicting body of lies but if you look on rotten tomatoes it failed I’m sorry.
So just wait till the end of the year then predict but as of now I hope that the Dark Knight will get a nomination in best picture( I didn’t say win). Let’s just wait to see.
“Notice how Zed thinks “TDK fans” and “Academy members” live on different planets. The biggest box-office/critical/pop-cultural sensation in a decade, yet nobody in the industry much cared for it. Right.”
That’s not even true. In the last decade Star Wars: Episode I’s adjusted gross is higher than that of TDK.
I’m not saying that TDK’s perception isn’t strong enough for it to be a major awards player. I’m just pointing out facts.
And I will argue that it is not even close to being the biggest whatever sensation in a decade. Personally I’d be pretty sad if it was.
“box-office/critical/pop-cultural sensation”
I’m talking about the Perfect Storm of all three. (for “pop-culture sensation” substitute “broad fanbase enthusiasm” — since we know nothing can beat Sanjaya for pop-culture sensation.)
The Phantom Menace has a metacritic score of 52
The Dark Knight has a metacritic score of 82
If you’re seriously trying to say The Phantom Menace comes even close to being as important or praised as The Dark Knight, then it’s clear you’ll grasp at any straw to argue tonight, Proman.
Jar Jar Binks vs The Joker.
Game over.
Well, I just can’t help myself when my “opponent’s”* main argument involves bringing up MetaCritic scores.
Harry Potter, LOTR, iPod, ect… have all been easily as big as The Dark Knight, if not bigger.
Sure they may love it now but if a mediocre browser like FireFox can create a whole devoted culture around it, I just don’t see much depth in your Perfect Storm. In a couple of years it’s just going to be one of the movies.
But you probably won’t understand what I meant there.
*And no Ryan, I do not consider you an opponent. I was just making an observation, not starting an argument. Not every statement that slightly disagrees with your take on things is meant to be taken like that.
But yes I am saying that during its first year The Phantom Menace was easily as important as the Dark Knight and during that time the fact that it wasn’t nearly as praised didn’t matter much.
“…during that time the fact that it wasn’t nearly as praised didn’t matter much.”
The lack of praise didn’t matter… except to anybody handing out awards.
Scoff all you want at critics ratings. For the past several years, unless a movie ranks above 70 (and usually above 80), then it’s not getting a BP nod. (Unless it’s Crash – 69)
And all the BP winners of the past five years have all scored over 85* (two of them over 90)
*not counting the Crash anomaly. Brokeback Mountain’s score? 87.
Just saw W. It was really very good! I was incredibly surprised. Might be worth taking a closer look at.
““…during that time the fact that it wasn’t nearly as praised didn’t matter much.”
The lack of praise didn’t matter… except to anybody handing out awards.”
Don’t change the subject on me there, buddy. I thought we were talking about the overall cultural impact here, a perfect storm of generational importance. That transcends any awards.
All the same, unless this year is an anamoly and every perceived contender fails, The Dark Knight won’t get that prize you think it will get. And I highly doubt it will get a nom (though not willing to predict on that at this point). That’s my personal opinion.
And I don’t scoff at critics but if you must know I’ve always found the numeric values attributed to reviews at MetaCritic to be very subjective and inconsistent. Not to mention that their ratings sample is a mere quarter of the ones at Rotten Tomatoes (and yes I know your beloved Brokeback has a higher score there too).
And I also know that the critical rating aren’t always the be all. Or do you think Iron Man has a good shot on BP Oscar too.
I know why you brought up Crash. I’m on record for really liking Brokeback Mountain too. Really like it but I still think Crash is a better movie.
P.S. Don’t be hating on Jar Jar. Binks is pretty important if for no other reason than because he was the first major realistic (well, at least visually) computer animated characted in movies.
Right now, I’m playing this tune:
Picture:
Dark Knight
Rachel Getting Married
The Visitor
The Road
Australia
For my picks, The Visitor is the underdog middle aged indie film, older audiences love it, it is prestigious and also political… Rachel Getting Married is getting huge reviews, came out of nowhere, I think it’ll be in, The Road, don’t even know what it’s about but feels appropriate, and finally, Australia seems too big to ignore.
Now you see that I’ve discounted a lot of the big, obvious films everyone is predicting. We don’t even know if these movies are any good, all we know is that the marketing wants us to believe they are oscar material, because that’s the reason they were green-lit.
Milk – Gus Van Sant just made Gerri, Elephant, Last Days, Paranoid Park, I doubt he will connect in a big way with audiences at this stage. Hollywood wouldn’t want to award the person who gave them the finger.
Frost/Nixon – it is probably good but not great, and Ron Howard is kind of played out after Beautiful Mind
Revolutionary Road – Sam Mendes isn’t an auteur, American Beauty was the right script, Perdition/Jarhead were good but not great… Also Titanic has gotten major backlash since its win. Will people really be in the mood to award Kate/Leo’s new vehicle.
Benjamin Button – Fincher is like Tim Burton, he won’t get oscar recognition until he’s older or a life time achievement award, Button can get lots of technical noms but these creative, aging paradox films don’t have a good record.
Changeling – I doubt Eastwood will get BP with Changeling, maybe a golden globe nom, but the academy has nom’d him to death, and I doubt Changeling is as good as Letters.
Doubt – The early reviews have just been OK
“And I also know that the critical rating aren’t always the be all. Or do you think Iron Man has a good shot on BP Oscar too.”
Don’t twist the logic on me, buddy
I never said all movies with high critics ratings get nominations. I only said that most nominated movies have very high critics ratings.
It’s an indicator. That’s all. When enough positive indicators click in line, they can add up to a nomination. Jaw-dropping box-office included.
But let’s stop. You don’t think The Dark Knight deserves a BP nomination. I do. I think we’re both already on record dozens of times about this.
Lots of other movies Sasha mentioned in her post. Let’s talk about the other ones.
uuuummm….
Sorry about the double-post. I accidentally clicked on the post button while I was composing this.
Aaaaaanyway. Since everyone else is doing it, here are my early predictions:
PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Milk
The Dark Knight
Revolutionary Road
Frost/Nixon
DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky for The Wrestler
Christopher Nolan for The Dark Knight
John Hillcoat for The Road
Gus Van Sant for Milk
David Fincher for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio for Revolutionary Road
Viggo Mortensen for The Road
Sean Penn for Milk
Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler
Frank Langella for Frost/Nixon
ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway for Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins for Happy-Go-Lucky
Melissa Leo for Frozen River
Meryl Streep for Doubt
Kate Winslet for Revolutionary Road
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight
Josh Brolin for Milk
Kodi Smitt-McPhee for The Road
Jamie Fox for The Soloist
Michael Shannon for Revolutionary Road
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz for Vicky Christina Barcelona
Viola Davis for Doubt
Taraji P Henson for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei for The Wrestler
Debra Winger for Rachel Getting Married
ORIGINAL
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Vicky Christina Barcelona
WALL-E
Synechdoche New York
ADAPTED
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Revolutionary Road
The Road
Slumdog Millionaire
I am flabbergasted that anyone can be saying right now that TDK is not a “box-office/critical/pop-cultural sensation.” Have you looked around lately?
I’m also surprised that people have suddenly written off Changeling so quickly. What ever happened to the supposed potential it once I had? I still believe it possesses quite a bit of that… And that Angelina is almost a lock for actress.
I screwed up my editing, so just to add to my last post…
TDK is the first comic book movie ever to dare to go the extra step and be a real movie of substance at the same time. It is still playing in cinemas everywhere long after every other summer blockbuster has all but disappeard (except for maybe Wall-E). It is the first new release in recent memory that I know of to ever become the #1 movie in IMDB’s top 250 (whether the voting/ranking system is flawed or not, it goes to shows how just tremendous its support is from fans, and to what extent so many people adore it (although it has dropped to #4 now, but that is still a normally unheard of rating for a new release/blockbuster that has not been around long enough to be called a “classic” yet, especially since it has managed to maintain this rank for quite some time)).
Combine that with critical response, BO earnings and the fact that it is already receiving oscar buzz and you have the reasons why TDK is, and will be for some time, one of the definitive cultural milestones of the decade.
Oscar nomination? It would be nice. Does the film really need it to keep its status as one of the defining movies of the 21st century? I highly doubt it. The fact of the matter is, it really is that good. Hopefully, it has paved the way for more movies of its kind to follow.
Zed sounds like an IDIOT, and TDK is a front-runner for BP, BD, and Supp. Actor nominations. Won’t win the first two, but certainly will earn nominations.
I always hear the same arguments every year. In some ways doing this site is like being in a bad dream over and over again. Look, no one can tell, at this stage, what the future holds. But second guessing the Academy rarely works. Does anyone care to know how often I argued that The Departed was going to be nominated and then that it would win? Do you know how many people told me it never would because it was a remake, it was too violent, etc. Good movies are good movies are good movies. All of the other shit just doesn’t fly. They nominated ALL THREE Lord of the Rings movies and yes, they were towering achievements but they were somewhat confusing to anyone who hadn’t read the books (raises hand, ashamed).
Often the best pic category is about what the Big Story of the year is with little regard to the actual film. Now, if there was a November surprise lurking in the water, like say There Will Be Blood, it’s possible The Dark Knight can be shoved into the tech categories. It’s possible the Academy will dig their heels in and prove themselves woefully out of touch of reality and therefore no longer qualified to really judge what the Best Picture of the year is (maybe they never were?) but who’s to say The Dark Knight won’t go the distance? It may need critics’ support to get there. But can anyone really say the DGA won’t honor Christopher Nolan? And that when they honor him there will be mutual admiration for a job well done? We are talking about a movie that has not only made close to what Titanic made but a movie that has been tattooed into the collective skin of our culture to the point where it’s the one movie everyone has seen, or very nearly.
Yes, to a degree the Academy is old school. And no can say for sure it’s in. But no one can say that about the other movies either, especially since none of them have been seen.
Oh and while I’m rambling I wanted to clear something up: I should have stated in my post that I am not thinking about Wall-E for Best Picture. Only that it is strong going into the race to win Animated Feature.
“Do you think voters 65+ years of age are really going to care if the telecast gets good ratings or not?”
Um, yeah, I do….I really do….keep in mind that this is the probably the age group that nominated such fare as The Greatest Show on Earth, The Towering Inferno and many other films that are slight blemishes, but were HUGE hits at the box office…they know their ratings and I think it’s the older generation that wants to hold onto that grasp on the nielsen’s…..
Anyone who thinks that The Dark Knight is not a cultural phenomenon is quite simply insane. In 16 days you will see how big of a cultural impact the film has had when you see dozens (or in my case prolly thousands seeing that I live in NYC) of Jokers running around your town. Yes I understand that at the time a film like The Phantom Menace SEEMED like a cultural phenomenon but honestly I think it was only a milestone for Star Wars/sci-fi/fantasy fans. No one outside of that base really cared about the film. The Dark Knight has reached well beyond its comic book/superhero fan base. So for anyone not to recognize the cultural impact that TDK has had this year and will have for years to come is just plain stubborn.
As far as awards go, will The Dark Knight be nominated for Best Picture? Maybe. Maybe Not. Honestly at this point it doesn’t need it to carve out its place in film history.
Poor Wall-E the best film of the year so far (yes better than TDK! I said it! Wanna fight about it?!) but doesn’t stand a snowballs chance in hell of being nominated for the “big prize” because it will be kept in the Animated Feature ghetto. That said it will garner somewhere along the lines of 4-5 nominations.
Other films that stand a chance at this point:
Slumdog Millionaire, Rachel Getting Married and Happy-Go-Lucky (blech!)
To jump on the bandwagon, here are my 5 choices as of today, which will likely change, like. tommorow:
Benjamin Button
Revolutionary Road
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
The Dark Knight
Potential Spoilers: Frost/Nixon, Rachel Getting Married, Doubt, Changeling
I’m not gonna lie: This is my ideal list (well, ideal list with the most chance of actually happening).
I think with movies like Gran Torino, The Reader and The Road, their supreme secrecy and late releases are seriously going to hurt them their chances. With everything pushed up in the race I think the December suprise release is a bad marketing move. By this time last year, all of the 5 BP nominations had either released or there was some SERIOUS coverage on them. Gran Torino MAY pull an upset, and go the Iwo Jima way with an unexpected nomination, but ONLY cause it’s war related and because it’s Clint Eastwood. The Road will be far to dark at that point in the race. I mean, The Road releases in a month and we haven’t even seen a trailer! The marketing department is dropping the ball har don this one. The Reader is just too all over the place now to even contend I think.
Frost/Nixo may upset, due to the Ron Howard factor and the subject matter. But I have a strong feeling it’ll go the Cinderella Man way: appreciated, but not enough. An acting nomination or two may result.
Rachel Getting Married is really jsut as much up there with those 6 and essentailyl battles it out with Slumdog for the feel good mvoiespot. I choose Slumdog casue A) If it’s as crowd pleasing as we’ve heard, then when it releases it’s really going to blossom B) I’m Indian and anything indian related gets my push
Doubt will be strong in acting and may earn all 4 a nomination, but I don’t think the film itself will be able to hold steam. It may come off just a tadtoo preachy and obvious.
Changeling has been discounted i think a little TOO much. In the coming weeks I have a feeling it will regain the steam it gathered in May. It may or may not be enough to pull it through. It would replace Milk if it did get that nomination.
A Wall-E nomination would be nice. But it’s not happening. It has its’ own category and Academy members will not see it outside that category. At least not yet. And while Wall-E is an amazing adult movie, it’s still in cartoon form, and I don’t tihnk the Academy willb e abe to get past the lack of real people.
I really jsut want to see these movies, so i can start making educated guesses as opposed to pulling things out of my ass. Cause right now the movies I discount might completley prove me wrong once I’ve SEEN it. Except Australia. Mark my words, that movie is not going to be good.
O! And a best score nomination for A.R.Rahman for Slumdog Millioanire would be icing on any cake.
Frost/Nixon will not happen. Its too stale of a film and too much like a play. Same with Doubt.
I can see Slumdog Millionare being a huge upset with the academy. People are betting it will be the Juno and LMS of this year, but it seems to me more like the appreciated art film (I’m Not There, Into The Wild, Children of Men) and less of BP contender. That is going to upset for sure.
The Dark Knight is a film where both critics and audiences ate up.
Benjamin Button seems to be very classic and very escapist.
Milk has a chance because its the real next step for gay rights films.
Revolutionary Road is very Mad Men-esque and thats a big thing in hollywood right now.
The last spot could go to Slumdog, but it could also go to Rachael Getting Married (if marketed well), The Soloist (Joe Wright can do ANYTHING), W. , or Australia. I think its best to question Slumdog’s spot more than anything.
Organic hits thus far: The Dark Knight, Slumdog Millionaire, and Rachel Getting Married . On the horizon, with the most potential: Milk, Revolutionary Road, Benjamin Button, Australia, Frost/Nixon, Gran Torino, and of course, Doubt. I could be wrong but I think The Reader has had too much bad publicity but if it’s good enough it might overcome./
Sasha, I kinda hate to agree with you 100 percent, but at this point at least, I do.
Great article, Sasha.
I forgot all about Gran Torino and I think you’re right. It definitely could be the Clint film that sneaks up on everyone while they’re all looking at Changeling. OmarS makes a very good point, however, that people may have discounted Changeling a little TOO much.
As for Doubt and Frost/Nixon I expect we’ll see several acting nominations between them given the casts of these films (particularly the underappreciated Frank Langella). I think that noms for BP, director, adapted screenplay will really depend on how well these stories are transferred from stage to screen.
Wall-E should definitely get a best animated feature nomination but I don’t see it getting a best pic nom, especially if many of the films coming down the pike live up to expectations.
“Does anyone care to know how often I argued that The Departed was going to be nominated and then that it would win? Do you know how many people told me it never would because it was a remake, it was too violent, etc. Good movies are good movies are good movies.”
But The Departed did not win because it was a good movie. It won because the Academy were determined to honor Scorsese for his body of work. That was the overwhelming sentiment amongst voters that propelled Scorsese to the podium. Not ‘This is a great movie, amongst the best things he’s ever done’ but ‘It’s far from his best but he should have won already so let’s give it to him now before he drops dead or retires.’
The Academy did with Scorsese what it has a long history of doing – which is to give late career awards to filmmakers for some of their least interesting, least deserving movies. And make no bones about it The Departed is a terrible film, simply dreadful. Monahan’s script turns a tight HK thriller into a bloated mess that plays like a parody of earlier Scorsese pics replete with Nicholson’s hammy, scenery chewing performance.
So yes, Sasha, you were right that TD would win – but if you made that argument on the basis of TD’s quality rather than Scorsese being (to use that dreadful term) ‘overdue’ – then you were right but for all the wrong reasons. Obviously no such sentiment can be put forward with regard to Nolan who is not regarded with any sense of awe by Academy voters.
But to get back to the point, the thing here is that there is a difference in taste/outlook between Academy voters & the teens & twenty somethings who wet themselves over The Dark Knight. Look at that youtube review & note how diametrically opposed the views on the script, the performances & the direction are from most of the comments here. And, sure, you can say they’re two old farts & they don’t count but I rather think their sentiments are a lot more representative of the Academy – broadly speaking – than people here would like to admit. The only thing both sides can agree on is the praise for Heath Ledger.
A nomination there? Possibly, but it’s a Warner film & Warner has, amongst others, one Clint Eastwood to push for Torino. Think Warner are going to go all out for a dead actor over a living legend who’s never won an Oscar for Best Actor?
Nope, neither do I.
Well said as usual Sasha.
This has been the decade of the superhero movie – where special effects meet current sensibilities. Sci-fi used to be defined as simply more optimistic than horror (in 1951, The Day the Earth Stood Still was sci-fi and The Thing was horror, because of different reactions to the intruder), but post-Alien (1979), sci-fi has been getting more and more reactionary/suspicious, as evidenced by Spielberg’s War of the Worlds (compared to E.T.) and Lucas’s last two Star Wars pictures (compared to his first three), and by their rightly-skewered-last-week-by-South-Park Indiana Jones detread.
Superhero films are where faith in the supernatural is still honorable, but where we can also reflect the current post-therapy no-nonsense Barack Obama-Michael Cera-like sensibility in the lead males. The Dark Knight, granted, isn’t as sci-fi as X-Men, but that works for it: Batman always worked better as the real-man antidote to all these supercharged crusaders than he would as the only guy with a cape in a bunch of noir comics.
The academy doesn’t (need to) know any of this, they can just sense it, and nominating The Dark Knight is an easy way for the academy to acknowledge the zeitgeist, setting the bar for Marvel’s crazily ambitious five-year plan and every other hero pic in development.
It’s also nice that The Dark Knight is really about cops, and a post-9/11 world, and letting yourself be the bad guy to do good for the world. It’s also nice that a Best Supporting Actor nod is Set in Stone, giving them an excuse to go further.
Riddle me this
Crystal ball monsters
Who’d be afraid of
A Dark Knight Oscars?
@ Zed & No Noughts: while I agree with you that The Departed was nowhere near Scorsese’s best film I wouldn’t say that it was a bloated mess. The HK original was far superior, no contest abd I will always prefer it. But I think Scorsese and co. did a good job reworking the story and adapting it to a westernized culture. The ensemble cast was top-notch and masterfully directed.
Goodfellas should have won.
“So yes, Sasha, you were right that TD would win – but if you made that argument on the basis of TD’s quality rather than Scorsese being (to use that dreadful term) ‘overdue’ – then you were right but for all the wrong reasons. Obviously no such sentiment can be put forward with regard to Nolan who is not regarded with any sense of awe by Academy voters.”
You’ll have to hit me with something other than the obvious if you expect me to listen to you. I have been running this site for ten years nearly do you really think I wouldn’t know Scorsese was due? Seriously? And you’re wrong anyway. They could have given Scorsese his Oscar for The Aviator if it was only about that. Clearly they loved The Departed and guess what? So did everyone else. It was the easy blockbuster, the best film by a mile of the nominated five. Scorsese hit it out of the park and was the only reason it was in the Oscar race to begin with. Still, it was the best film of the nominated five. It was a success no matter how you looked at it. If Christopher Nolan hadn’t directed TDK and some hack had done it it wouldn’t be in the Oscar race but Nolan is a well-respected Brit and thus, it gives it something it wouldn’t ordinarily have.
The Dark Knight will remain a contender for a long time yet. Even if it doesn’t make it into Oscar’s Top 5, I predict it’ll be in the race right up to the nominations announcement.
Why? Because it simply has to. It is a cultural phenomenon, you guys are right, Ryan, Daniel, Alfredo. There will be influential voices who won’t drop TDK, not even if it fails to get nominated – they’ll still be there, fuelling debates on why it wasn’t included!
Even if 2008 turns out to be another strong year, if all these big films which we haven’t yet seen turn out to be brilliant, TDK will survive on because it’s different. There are, and always will be people who will push TDK for nominations and wins until the very end.
What’s more, it’s certainly a lot closer to gaining a BP nomination than any other film at this moment; at any moment over the rest of the year, in fact. All other films, even Benjamin Button et al have a lot to prove. As long as TDK secures one critics BP win, or a Golden Globe nom, it’s surely there already. Surely…
PS – since Crash, Oscar has chosen wisely. It has done as it has been told to do. Just ten years ago, we wouldn’t have seen either The Deaprted or No Country win, nor would we have seen TWBB nominated. You can rest assured that Oscar voters will be told and told and told that TDK is the film to vote for this year, and imo rightly so. I’d vote for it, at least if I was voting today!
“A nomination there? Possibly, but it’s a Warner film & Warner has, amongst others, one Clint Eastwood to push for Torino. Think Warner are going to go all out for a dead actor over a living legend who’s never won an Oscar for Best Actor?”
Yes, because Warners knows where it’s bread is buttered. It doesn’t take a marketing whiz to know that how much Warner Bros. would love to put out ads touting “The sequel to the Academy Award winning masterpiece, The Dark Knight” in 3 years. Batman 3 is going to make $400 million minimum, Clint would need to make 25 Gran Torinos reach that number.
If you don’t like the whole “business over nostalgia” argument, Heath Ledger’s death and performance as The Joker is the Hollywood story of the year, not “Clint has a boatload of Oscars, but never won Best Actor ever!”
“You’ll have to hit me with something other than the obvious if you expect me to listen to you. I have been running this site for ten years nearly do you really think I wouldn’t know Scorsese was due? Seriously? And you’re wrong anyway. They could have given Scorsese his Oscar for The Aviator if it was only about that. ”
Now calm down. Scorsese didn’t win for The Aviator because like The Departed not only was it mediocre but a much better film emerged, got the rave reviews, the audience & the momentum & (rightly) won. Even if M$B hadn’t appeared that year Scorsese’s film would have been an unlikely winner since there was far more affection amongst voters for Alexander Payne’s film Sideways. If you were following the signals from voters you’d know this full well. The Aviator was admired by voters, it was not loved.
And setting aside the overwhelming sentiment factor that accounted for Scorsese’s subsequent Oscar win the fact is that The Departed faced no serious competition apart from Eastwood’s vastly superior movie & that entered the race too late in the day. It’s indicative of the impact those screeners must have made though that Letters still managed to make it into the final five despite bypassing all of the guilds, none of whose members had the chance to even see the movie. Had Letters opened several months earlier Scorsese would likely still be Oscar-less.
And ‘everyone else’ [loved The Departed] is the kind of breathless hyperbole that does your credibility no favors. ‘Everyone’ did not love The Departed. The NY critics – AO Scott, Manohla Dargis & Stephen Holden – thought it so weak they didn’t even list it on their Oscar contenders lists. Plenty of people consider it an inferior movie & an unworthy winner of a BP Oscar (oh yes, they do, Sasha). You know as well as I do that Scorsese won because the Academy wanted to reward its director & NOT because everyone fell in love with the movie.
Anyway back to TDK or more precisely its director who you suggest is so admired by Academy voters that his name alone is enough to ensure its nomination when exactly the same movie directed by a no name helmer would not be. Imaginative theory you have there but I think you’ll find that Nolan is no more or less respected by voters than any other filmmaker. This is not a Scorsese nearing the end of his career with tired retreads of earlier successes & coasting on a wave of ‘We should have given him one years before’ sentiment.
Nolan is still a young director with relatively few movies to his name, he has never made a great movie, he has no reputation with the Academy. The quality of the movie is the thing which, as two fairly representative voters have indicated is, ah, problematic, to put it mildly.
“If you don’t like the whole “business over nostalgia” argument, Heath Ledger’s death and performance as The Joker is the Hollywood story of the year, not “Clint has a boatload of Oscars, but never won Best Actor ever!”
That may be your opinion but in any case it wasn’t even my point! I was saying that if Warner had to decide between an Oscar push for a dead actor, whose win has zero benefits for them, or a campaign for an actor like Eastwood who is still very much alive & working & practically considered part of the family at WB – well, it’s a no brainer. They’re not going to risk pissing off Eastwood. They won’t give a toss about ‘the Hollywood story of the year’ as you put it.
Maybe you can explain how another Oscar can possibly benefit Clint Eastwood, Zed. But I doubt it. He’s never won Miss Teen USA either, but sometimes a man has to realize he’s just not that pretty.
Anyway, where have you been? Warners has an illustrious history pissing off Eastwood.
(Example? Forgot to send M$B screeners to BAFTA in ‘04. Oops!)
Anyone who thinks The Departed was undeserving is kidding themselves even more than someone who thinks TDK isn’t a cultural phenomenon. There was so much chemistry there between the director and actors you could smell it.
Having said that, I’m leaving to go start my campaign for Eastwood for Miss Teen USA… since he’ll need some form of award once he loses best supporting actor.
What about The Road? Isn’t that coming out this year?
But to get back to the point, the thing here is that there is a difference in taste/outlook between Academy voters & the teens & twenty somethings who wet themselves over The Dark Knight. Look at that youtube review & note how diametrically opposed the views on the script, the performances & the direction are from most of the comments here. And, sure, you can say they’re two old farts & they don’t count but I rather think their sentiments are a lot more representative of the Academy – broadly speaking – than people here would like to admit.
I’ll bet that most of the people “wetting themselves” over The Dark Knight at this site are over 40 and a lot more representative of today’s Academy than you would like to admit.
Zed, Nolan has 6 films to his name excluding TDK. That’s more than Tarantino had when Pulp Fiction was nominated (1), more than Malick for The Thin Red Line (2) and Spielberg for Jaws (2 if you include Duel) and it’s exactly the same as Kubrick had for Dr Strangelove (6). Memento is a great film, imo, Batman Begins is a superb film, so too is The Prestige, and Insomnia is also very good.
The DGA gave him a surprise nomination for Memento back in 2002. Then, he was relatively unknown and this nomination came out of the blue. The DGA voters were prepared to reward an unknown director for a small film simply because it was good enough. TDK is far from a small voters.
Sam Mendes had no films to his name when American Beauty WON, Paul Haggis also had none when Crash WON, Rob Marshall none for Chicago either when it WON.
Also, Zed, The Departed may not have been considered to be a great film by all. But in saying this, you do acknowledge that some did consider it to be great. Enough people fell in love with the movie to give it the following:
92% on rottentomatoes (UK)
100% on rottentomatoes top critics (UK again)
86% on metacritic
Nearly $300million worldwide
The highest grossing of an R-rated film in 2006
The 14th-highest grossing of any film worldwide in 2006
A No.1 slot in its opening weekend
Best Picture wins from Oscar, Critics Choice, Boston Critics, Chicago Critics, Florida Critics, Las Vegas Critics, Southeastern Critics and Satellites
Best Picture noms from BAFTA, Golden Globes, PGA and Online Critics
Best Director wins from Oscar, Golden Globes, DGA, Critics Choice, Boston Critics, Central Ohio Critics, Chicago Critics, Dallas-Fort Worth Critics, Florida Critics, Las Vegas, National Board, New York Critics, Online Critics, Phoenix Critics, Southeastern Critics and Washington Critics
Best Director noms from BAFTA and Satellites
Did ALL of them vote for it because they just wanted to reward Scorsese??? I think maybe not…
“I was saying that if Warner had to decide between an Oscar push for a dead actor, whose win has zero benefits for them, or a campaign for an actor like Eastwood who is still very much alive & working & practically considered part of the family at WB – well, it’s a no brainer. They’re not going to risk pissing off Eastwood. They won’t give a toss about ‘the Hollywood story of the year’ as you put it.”
Are you forgetting the not so small matter of Warner rereleasing TDK in January? I mean, not only they don’t care about pissing off Eastwood, they even pissed off the superhuge Harry Potter fanbase by pushing back HP 6 to next summer. Why else would they do that but to focus on TDK and its possible Oscar chances? (and of course, to get more money). You say this is Eastwood’s chance to get that elusive Best Actor win, well, many people are going to fall over themselves to give an Oscar to Heath Ledger not only for his superb performance in TDK, but also because many people thought he deserved one for Brokeback. This is their last chance to honour him, there won’t be any more (I don’t think we’re all anxiously awaiting for The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus…)
Also, zero benefits for Warner? After that insane viral marketing for TDK, a win for Heath would be the perfect cap to a very successful campaign by Warner. That is, of course, if TDK doesn’t also win Best Picture, but right now I can bet Warner is looking at a 10+ nominations for TDK, trying to put it in the same boat as LOTR:ROTK, the most recent BP which had as much phenomenal success and Oscar buzz despite it being a fantasy movie – as TDK is a superhero one.
A much needed dose of reality for Ryan, Seaside, Paddy, Paul & Sasha, as critic Michael Atkinson channels what I rather suspect is the overwhelming feeling amongst those elderly Academy voters towards Nolan’s movie. Guys, just see if you can read this without bursting a blood vessel, ‘kay?:-)
“Superheroes are, essentially by definition, idiotic confections intended for children, and the fact that I can’t escape them as an adult so far this millennium makes my blood boil. I did my time as a kid loving X-Men and Spider-Man and The Avengers and Jack Kirby specials (and E.C. reprints and even Warren mags like Creepy and Eerie), and heaven knows I do not begrudge the American early-adolescent his or her time in the shade with comic books, or their afternoons in matinees watching Batman or Iron Man or whatever. But it’s gotten to the point that superheroes comprise the substantial percentage of movie options we have now, in one form or another, and to avoid them as a grown-up you’d have to avoid cinema. What’s more, adults are flocking, adults reviewers are treating the movies seriously, the filmmakers themselves apparently believe they’re making coherent and profound statements. Meanwhile, the digital whooshing and ultrasurroundsound noise are getting so assaultive it seems we’re not that far away from a movie somehow reaching out during an action scene and just hitting you in the head with three-pound piece of flying shrapnel, just to “make you feel” the chaos.
But that’s my beef in general; The Dark Knight epitomizes the problem specifically not by simply being a Caped Crusader trifle masquerading as Paradise Lost, but because it failed to do the simplest things movies have always done: tell a fucking story. The film is quite literally one violent set-piece followed by a 20-second snatch of exposition, to explain what significance the set-piece is supposed to have, repeated again and again and again, for over 2.5 interminable hours. Stories require character and incidents that happen to those characters and decisions those characters have to make, and us watching them make those decisions, and then the tragic/triumphant/ironic result of those decisions. The Dark Knight runs along literally like a series of disconnected cabaret acts, with what passes for narrative happening off-screen most of the time, and the ample screentime remaining filled up with chases and fights so haphazardly shot and cut you can’t tell where anybody is or what’s going on. We hardly see Bruce Wayne, the Joker (yes, Heath Ledger was fascinating) has no backstory or motivation, plot holes loomed like event horizons (sure, you evacuated that hospital), dialogue scenes never lasted more than a few seconds – in other words, anything that might substantiate the film as dramatic material fit for adults was almost completely elided. I’ll tell you the two moments I appreciated, both missable in the melee: Christian Bale’s dry, almost imperceptible chuckle at Michael Caine’s I-told-you-so mini-punchline as they walked away from the camera, and the way the hulking gangbanging convict played by Tommy Lister went back to his seat after tossing the detonator overboard, brooding over perhaps having sealed his own death by doing the right thing. You can see why: these tiny instances involved humans, reacting and revealing their history. That’s about it for the whole film.
We wouldn’t be having this conversation if the audience were only kids, however large that audience might be. Somehow the entirety of American culture, young and middle-yeared and old, is embracing the childish universe of superheroes – which is structured around the easily-distracted worldview of kids, not around the reasoned, complex worldview we would hope children would grow into. Does America need that badly a post-post-9/11 big Daddy to vanquish danger so we can slumber in our cradles? The much-lamented infantilization of the mass populace continues, and at what cost? How much public effort and energy and time is spent consuming this attenuated nonsense – watching it, watching PR stuff about it, ‘Net-surfing for it, blogging about it, texting about it, pursuing gossip about it, rewatching it, YouTubing it, ad infinitum – and not attending instead to a government that eats tax monies like a Moloch and kills people by the thousands? Movies can be art, and can connect us with human verities and empathies and experiences that might help us deal with the real world. That’s what stories have always been for. But instead we’re using film as the walls of a bubble we’re constructing around ourselves like the disturbed children of abusive parents. Old Hollywood movies have always had their fair share of bullshit, but they were about people, always (or until Star Wars). Not anymore.”
http://zeroforconduct.com/2008/07/26/throwing-down.aspx#Comment
“That may be your opinion but in any case it wasn’t even my point! I was saying that if Warner had to decide between an Oscar push for a dead actor, whose win has zero benefits for them, or a campaign for an actor like Eastwood who is still very much alive & working & practically considered part of the family at WB – well, it’s a no brainer. They’re not going to risk pissing off Eastwood. They won’t give a toss about ‘the Hollywood story of the year’ as you put it.”
That’s well and good, you’re missing my point about the business aspect of pushing TDK over Eastwood. The next Batman film is going to make $400 million from hardcore comic fans and summer moviewatchers around the world. Those types of movies are traditionally ignored by the high-brow, older audience. They obviously watched the movie, and I suspect that they enjoyed the movie as well. It did make $500 million, and the backlash for the film has been minimal.
Everyone knows about the revolutionary marketing campaign of TDK. Now if you add language along the lines of “The sequel to the Oscar winning, Academy Award nominee for Best Picture, The Dark Knight”, it opens up other avenues for Batman 3 that weren’t there for TDK. Simply put, Clint Eastwood is a terrific actor/director who has done a lot of great things for Warner Bros. But he’s just one guy. The Batman franchise is a cornerstone of their company.
I just don’t get WHY Zed & No Noughts is SO against the idea of Dark Knight perhaps getting a BP nomination. Do you have some vested interest in its’ loss? And WHY are you so dead-set on convincing everyone that it has 0 chance of, according to you, even a nomination for Heath ledger?!?!!?
Yes, some people didn’t like it. Shocker. And while it wasn’t the majority, there was a group of people who did not like TDK and some, like you, you loathed it. That also goes for any other movie out there. And those who do not like said movie will ALWAYS have a way of justifying their opinion. TDK had plot-holes and loop holes and problems, I, a super-fan, acknowledge this. it was not perfect. And these so called elderly Academy voters may also have the same feelings. Some are bound too. Every movie will always have its’ naysayers.
But I don’t get what pointing out negative reviews is going to do? It’s a pointless practice that does nothing for your argument. Every TDK supporter here has heard the things stated in that review before (and a little less pretentiously as well). But it doesn’t mean that it still doesn’t stand a chance. It just means some people won’t be happy when/if it does get that nomination.
You don’t have to like TDK (you clearly don’t), but to deny that a movie of this magnitude will have NO effect on the Academy is ludicrous. To begin with, the movie was liked (more like Loved) by Critics as well as movie-goers alike. So, even though you may not think so, it can technically, under this situation, be considered a good movie. Its’ universal praise is impossible to ignore. Then there’s the box office clout of becoming the second highest grossing movie of all time. And with that january re-release, it will likely become the highest grossing. Then all the praise for Heath Ledger. I don’t see how the Academy could ignore this movie. Even the elderly voters you claim will have none of it. And everyone won’t like it, but can you honestly tell me that the close to 6000 person group will completely side step this movie? I just don’t see it as being possible.
As for The Departed, I will be the first to admit, I did not LOVE that movie. BUT it was the strongest contender that year, and it won because it was universally praised. Like Paddy m stated above, it wouldn’t have won so many awards otherwise. Every other critics circle doesn’t owe Scorsese anything. And you stated yourself, The Aviator was a weak movie, they gave it to Scorsese for a good movie, one they felt deserved the praise as well.
And I can’t even begin to tell you how off you are about WB. For them, it’s all about money. They owe NOTHING to Clint Eastwood, because all the money Clint’s films have generate for them, The Batman series has done in two films. That’s a cash cow. Not Clint Eastwood and his inconsistency. Everyone knows having your film get nominations increase your box-office numbers and this will be no different. the more nominations and prestige it can gather, the more money TDK will rake in. which would not only make it a critically acclaimed movie, but potentially the highest grossing movie of all time. WB would have that slot of the most successful movie of all time, and take it right under Titanic’s nose. Also, everyone and their mother (and I think you as well) can’t deny Heaths performance. If WB decided not to push that, they would be seriously stupid. For them, it’s not about an award going to a living or dead person, it’s about going to WB, and Heath has MUCH more promise, especially right now in front of the mysterious Gran Torino. There is significantly more money for WB in supporting TDK than Eastwood. I think that’s preposterous to undermine. You don’t have to support or even like the movie, but don’t start making things up!
Zed quotes uber-snot Michael Atkinson as if he’s the voice of the Academy elders. When in fact it’s hard to know why Atkinson goes to movies at all — he hates them so much.
Atkinson on WALL-E: “clouds of family-movie fart vapor”
Atkinson on Into the Wild: “I gave up after two hours. I knew how it ended, after all.”
Atkinson on Eastern Promises: “the most overrated film of 2007″
[Eastern Promises, #7 on Film Comment's 2007 Critics Poll]
Atkinson on The Bourne Ultimatum: “the camera smooshes are so constant and extreme you can’t focus on anything at all, much less follow an action narrative visually. You’re just looking at white noise.”
The Bourne Ultimatum won 3 Oscars, including Best Editing. Nominated for 6 BAFTAs, including Best Director, Best Editing, Best Cinematography. But all Atkinson sees is “white noise.”
Atkinson does have something in common with older AMPAS members: He sounds really fucking old.
“Somehow the entirety of American culture, young and middle-yeared and old, is embracing the childish universe of superheroes – …”
And there you have it: Best Picture nomination in the bag.
Thanks for the article, Zed.
(Didn’t burst a blood vessel before and ceratinly not bursting one now.)
As if I wasn’t already POSITIVE that Zed was a moron with shitty taste, the statement below confirms it:
“The Academy did with Scorsese what it has a long history of doing – which is to give late career awards to filmmakers for some of their least interesting, least deserving movies. And make no bones about it The Departed is a terrible film, simply dreadful. Monahan’s script turns a tight HK thriller into a bloated mess that plays like a parody of earlier Scorsese pics replete with Nicholson’s hammy, scenery chewing performance. ”
Wow, why the fuck did Marcellus Wallace let you go??? Did he get tired of hearing your snobbish, boorish, insane tirades against great films?
And make no bones about it, “DEPARTED” IS a GREAT film, simply fantastic. Monahan’s masterful, Oscar-winning script turns a very good HK script into a film EPIC, replete with excellent, career-high work from all involved (particularly Whalberg). It’s one of Scorsese’s best films EVER, and the most worthy BP winner since SILENCE OF THE LAMBS.
And who gives a rat’s ass if a couple of NY douchebags share your shitty taste, the VAST majority of respected critics (AND filmfans) saw it for the sprawling, captivating, majestic crime masterpiece that it was.
Anyone who dismisses DK and DEPARTED back to back is someone who loses ALL credibility in my book.
But by all means, keep yapping like an ADD-addled parrot about how much these great films suck, or how DK will not get any Oscar-love. I’ll be LAUGHING MY ASS OFF AT YOU when Jan 22 comes!
ps: Ledger’s performance is the most acclaimed and talked about performance of the year, and will probably remain the latter by the end of the year. Eastwood already has a bunch of awards, and is a frequent show in current awards time. I doubt they’ll give a crap about giving him another one over a phenomenal actor who passed away before he was given his due, but delivered one of the top three greatest swan songs in film history, creating what has ALREADY become the most quintessential film villain since Hannibal Lecter.
2nd ps: M$B, while a very good film, is one of the most overrated and undeserving BP pics in recent years. AVIATOR, while not as good as DEPARTED, was INFINITELY better than it. Boy, your hard-on for Eastwood is almost as funny as your pathological crappy taste.
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