This is all very bizarre, Oscar watchers. None of the films being discussed have opened to the public and yet they’ve had their ups and downs all over the web. Ads from films flash at people, the chattering class is reaching a fever pitch. What to make of it, what to make of it. In his latest column, David Poland trashes Revolutionary Road and puts it not quite as far down on his Best Picture list as The Dark Knight but below Australia. For our purposes, we’re used to films opening, being reviewed and then considered for Best Picture. Now, since we see them so much earlier than they’re released, we only have our own opinions to go on and those, my friends, aren’t nearly as reliable.
But the studios need to have their movies seen because time’s a wasting. The National Board of Review is coming up, the Globes and BFCA are coming up. Right now, the BFCA has a few Oscar-y films on its radar – among them, Frost/Nixon currently enjoying a whopping 96. Milk has a 93. Slumdog has a 92, if you can believe it. That makes Frost/Nixon their top winner at the moment.
Unless one’s own taste aligns perfectly with the Academy’s, without a general consensus no one can know — I mean REALLY know – anything about how the year will go. So no worries, you Australia supporters – that film could very well be among the Big Five.
This early on it’s easy to have one’s hopes raised. Right now, we can all have our ideal Oscar race before our eyes. We can still believe that The Dark Knight will be nominated (it should be) or that Revolutionary Road is really a strong contender or that Melissa Leo actually has a shot. We can believe anything we want because so far there isn’t anyone, no critic, no award, no list telling us we can’t. But remember, the trick is not minding because when the shit starts to come down it’s going to hurt.
I don’t know why Poland hated Revolutionary Road and why he thinks Doubt has a better shot at Best Pic, or Australia is a better contender than The Dark Knight – I don’t know anything. December can’t come fast enough. We all need a little reality slap right about now, methinks. The trick is not minding, the trick is not minding, the trick is — SLAP.
Is there a lock in the Best Pic race pre-Thanksgiving? Benjamin Button is a lock. Slumdog is a lock. Beyond those, well, nobody knows anything. We wait, we wait.
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“It’s going to hurt”
very true. like every year Michelle Pfeiffer is eligible and gets NO LOVE (I Am Sam, anyone?) Anybody who sees how badly she bombs in interviews will know it takes an amazing actress to make so much sense out of senseless characters (Catwoman, that one in Grease 2) when she seems so senseless herself on Leno’s couch.
Don’t know why I brought her into this. Lol. But yeah, I’m praying Dark Knight will get in because it’s the most amazing film through and through that I’ve seen since Finding Nemo. (geez, the more I type, the less reliable I sound to myself)
But Sasha- that´s entertainment! I would be happy if all those critics choice groups and all those guild awards quit their business and let maybe the Globes be the only radar beside someone´s own that you can count on! I love to be surprised!
By the way, Milk is also a lock.
Hope springs eternal for WALL-E! (at least until December precursors)
I hope the BP nominees will be:
Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Revolutionary Road
The Dark Knight
Milk
I just have this really strong feeling after what I have seen (almost everything but Button, Gran Torino, and Australia), that the final five will be
Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
Milk
Benjamin Button
Revolutionary Road (to my own dismay)
I just can’t see Doubt getting in because of how small it is. Frost/Nixon possibly, but it would replace RR on my list and who knows how that’ll go over in the mainstream. Its all a guessing game at this point anyway
David Poland has got to be one of the worst reviewers (and interviewers, for that matter) I’ve ever read. Which is why i’ve basically stopped going to his site, save for checking out the box office figures for the weekend.
I think Frost/Nixon and The Dark Knight are benefitting from these so-so reviews making the rounds.
frost/nixon got mostly so-so reviews. almost every review i read on the film said it was too stagey, ron howard was not the right director for it, and the performances were basically very good, or just good, but too stagey again, just because the reviews were technically positive doesnt mean they were dripping with praise
So, in a nutshell; THE LOCKS SO FAR ARE:
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE and BENJAMIN BUTTON IN BEST PICTURE
PENN, ROURKE AND LANGELLA IN LEADING MALE
CATE, KATE AND MERYL IN LEADING FEMALE! AM I RIGHT?
Sasha, by the way, don’t you think it’s about time we saw Langella on your best actor list?
There is something strange about this year. It’s as if all the major players in terms of Best Picture conspired to not follow the usual model for Oscar consideration roll out…..which is to introduce the film at a festival and generate a lot of buzz before the AMPAS screenings. Maybe all the players thought they would have a better chance with AMPAS members going in to see the films without a lot of advance hype or buzz. If the studios feel that this a positive thing……this may be a game changer in terms how an Oscar campaign will be done in the future.
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