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The State of the Race is Looking Surreal

Posted by Susan Thea Posnock On November - 24 - 2008

This is all very bizarre, Oscar watchers.  None of the films being discussed have opened to the public and yet they’ve had their ups and downs all over the web.  Ads from films flash at people, the chattering class is reaching a fever pitch. What to make of it, what to make of it.  In his latest column, David Poland trashes Revolutionary Road and puts it not quite as far down on his Best Picture list as The Dark Knight but below Australia.  For our purposes, we’re used to films opening, being reviewed and then considered for Best Picture. Now, since we see them so much earlier than they’re released, we only have our own opinions to go on and those, my friends, aren’t nearly as reliable.

But the studios need to have their movies seen because time’s a wasting.  The National Board of Review is coming up, the Globes and BFCA are coming up.  Right now, the BFCA has a few Oscar-y films on its radar – among them, Frost/Nixon currently enjoying a whopping 96.  Milk has a 93.  Slumdog has a 92, if you can believe it.  That makes Frost/Nixon their top winner at the moment.

Unless one’s own taste aligns perfectly with the Academy’s, without a general consensus no one can know — I mean REALLY know – anything about how the year will go. So no worries, you Australia supporters – that film could very well be among the Big Five.

This early on it’s easy to have one’s hopes raised.  Right now, we can all have our ideal Oscar race before our eyes.  We can still believe that The Dark Knight will be nominated (it should be) or that Revolutionary Road is really a strong contender or that Melissa Leo actually has a shot.  We can believe anything we want because so far there isn’t anyone, no critic, no award, no list telling us we can’t.  But remember, the trick is not minding because when the shit starts to come down it’s going to hurt.

I don’t know why Poland hated Revolutionary Road and why he thinks Doubt has a better shot at Best Pic, or Australia is a better contender than The Dark Knight – I don’t know anything.  December can’t come fast enough.  We all need a little reality slap right about now, methinks. The trick is not minding, the trick is not minding, the trick is — SLAP.

Is there a lock in the Best Pic race pre-Thanksgiving?  Benjamin Button is a lock.  Slumdog is a lock.  Beyond those, well, nobody knows anything.  We wait, we wait.

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    No Response for "The State of the Race is Looking Surreal"

    1. Chance November 24th, 2008 at 9:37 am 1

      “It’s going to hurt”

      very true. like every year Michelle Pfeiffer is eligible and gets NO LOVE (I Am Sam, anyone?) Anybody who sees how badly she bombs in interviews will know it takes an amazing actress to make so much sense out of senseless characters (Catwoman, that one in Grease 2) when she seems so senseless herself on Leno’s couch.

      Don’t know why I brought her into this. Lol. But yeah, I’m praying Dark Knight will get in because it’s the most amazing film through and through that I’ve seen since Finding Nemo. (geez, the more I type, the less reliable I sound to myself)

    2. Dominik November 24th, 2008 at 9:40 am 2

      But Sasha- that´s entertainment! I would be happy if all those critics choice groups and all those guild awards quit their business and let maybe the Globes be the only radar beside someone´s own that you can count on! I love to be surprised!
      By the way, Milk is also a lock.

    3. N8 November 24th, 2008 at 10:29 am 3

      Hope springs eternal for WALL-E! (at least until December precursors)

    4. Alesque November 24th, 2008 at 10:39 am 4

      I hope the BP nominees will be:

      Curious Case of Benjamin Button
      Doubt
      Revolutionary Road
      The Dark Knight
      Milk

    5. Ricky November 24th, 2008 at 12:03 pm 5

      I just have this really strong feeling after what I have seen (almost everything but Button, Gran Torino, and Australia), that the final five will be

      Dark Knight
      Slumdog Millionaire
      Milk
      Benjamin Button
      Revolutionary Road (to my own dismay)

      I just can’t see Doubt getting in because of how small it is. Frost/Nixon possibly, but it would replace RR on my list and who knows how that’ll go over in the mainstream. Its all a guessing game at this point anyway

    6. Alan of Montreal November 24th, 2008 at 1:11 pm 6

      David Poland has got to be one of the worst reviewers (and interviewers, for that matter) I’ve ever read. Which is why i’ve basically stopped going to his site, save for checking out the box office figures for the weekend.

    7. Jonathan Spuij November 24th, 2008 at 1:20 pm 7

      I think Frost/Nixon and The Dark Knight are benefitting from these so-so reviews making the rounds.

    8. Casey F. November 24th, 2008 at 1:59 pm 8

      frost/nixon got mostly so-so reviews. almost every review i read on the film said it was too stagey, ron howard was not the right director for it, and the performances were basically very good, or just good, but too stagey again, just because the reviews were technically positive doesnt mean they were dripping with praise

    9. GeorgeP November 24th, 2008 at 4:52 pm 9

      So, in a nutshell; THE LOCKS SO FAR ARE:
      SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE and BENJAMIN BUTTON IN BEST PICTURE

      PENN, ROURKE AND LANGELLA IN LEADING MALE

      CATE, KATE AND MERYL IN LEADING FEMALE! AM I RIGHT?

      Sasha, by the way, don’t you think it’s about time we saw Langella on your best actor list?

    10. Nancy Kriparos November 24th, 2008 at 7:24 pm 10

      There is something strange about this year. It’s as if all the major players in terms of Best Picture conspired to not follow the usual model for Oscar consideration roll out…..which is to introduce the film at a festival and generate a lot of buzz before the AMPAS screenings. Maybe all the players thought they would have a better chance with AMPAS members going in to see the films without a lot of advance hype or buzz. If the studios feel that this a positive thing……this may be a game changer in terms how an Oscar campaign will be done in the future.


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    • 82nd Oscar Ceremony

      Hosts: Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin
      Producers: Adam Shankman, Bill Mechanic
      Director: Hamish Hamilton
      Music: Marc Shaiman

      Quentin Tarantino
      Pedro Almodovar

      Ampas Breakdown

      Actors-1,205
      Producers-462
      Executives-436
      Sound-405
      Writers-382
      Art Directors-373
      Directors-375
      Public Relations-370
      Members at Large-254
      Shorts/Feature Ani-335
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      Editors-227
      Cinematographers-201
      Original Score-234
      Documentary-145
      Makeup-115
      Total Voting Members -approx 5,777


    • 82nd Oscar Ceremony

      Hosts: Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin
      Producers: Adam Shankman, Bill Mechanic
      Director: Hamish Hamilton
      Music: Marc Shaiman

      Quentin Tarantino
      Pedro Almodovar

    • Tuesday, December 1, 2009: Official Screen Credits forms due

      Monday, December 28, 2009: Nominations ballots mailed

      Saturday, January 23, 2010: Nominations polls close 5 p.m. PT

      Tuesday, February 2, 2010: Nominations announced 5:30 a.m. PT, Samuel Goldwyn Theater

      Wednesday, February 10, 2010: Final ballots mailed

      Monday, February 15, 2010: Nominees Luncheon

      Saturday, February 20, 2010: Scientific and Technical Achievement Awards presentation

      Tuesday, March 2, 2010: Final polls close 5 p.m. PT

      Sunday, March 7, 2010: 82nd Annual Academy Awards presentation



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    • Words

      “I think, of all the films this year… maybe “The Hurt Locker” too… “Up in the Air” will be considered the definitive film of 2009 when we look back in 2019. It’s too raw for people to appreciate now. I’m thinking of 1976 when the Best Picture Award went to “Rocky” over both “Network” and “Taxi Driver” which are far superior films, but “Rocky” struck the populist chord (“Avatar”). “Up in the Air” is similar to “Network” in that regard, because it’s taking a very sharp knife to the world it’s trying to dissect, yet still conveys fairly human emotions. In ten years we’ll be thinking, “how did they not pick ‘Up in the Air’ for best picture?” Of course I’m assuming it loses, but maybe it still has a chance… who knows.

      I for one was absolutely captivated and riveted by it, and would love for it to get recognition it deserves. Great Film.”
      by jnow
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    • Contender Tracker

      Awards So Far

      NBR Winner+
      /top ten*
      LAFCA Winner+
      BFCA Critics Choice Win+/Nominee*
      NYFCC Winner +/*
      SEFCA Winners+/*
      Golden Globes Nominee+/*
      SAG Winner+/Nominee*
      National Society of Film Critics winners+
      Producers Guild Winner+/Nominees*
      Directors Guild Winners+/Nominees*
      Art Directors Guild Nominees*
      Writers Guild Nominees*
      American Cinematographers Society*
      American Cinema Editors*
      Cinema Audio Society*
      BAFTA Nominations*


      Best Picture
      The Hurt Locker*+++**+++******
      Avatar*+********
      Inglourious Basterds***+****
      Up in the Air+*+*******
      Precious******
      District 9*****
      A Serious Man*****
      An Education*****
      Up****
      The Blind Side

      Best Actor
      Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart++++*
      George Clooney, Up in the Air+*++***
      Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker**+*
      Colin Firth, A Single Man****
      Morgan Freeman, Invictus+***

      Best Actress
      Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side+++
      Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia++++**
      Carey Mulligan, An Education+****
      Gabby Sidibe, Precious****
      Helen Mirren, The Last Station**

      Best Supporting Actor
      Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds+++++++*
      Woody Harrelson,The Messenger+***
      Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones****
      Matt Damon, Invictus***
      Christopher Plummer, The Last Station*

      Best Supporting Actress
      Mo'Nique, Precious+*+++++*
      Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air+****
      Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air****
      Penelope Cruz, Nine**
      Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart

      Best Director
      Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker++++*++*
      Jim Cameron, Avatar*+**
      Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds****
      Jason Reitman, Up in the Air***
      Lee Daniels, Precious**

      Best Original Screenplay
      Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds+*
      Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man+*+*
      Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker***
      Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Up*
      Oren Moverman, The Messenger

      Best Adapted Screenplay
      Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air+++++*
      Armando Iannucci, In the Loop+
      Geoffrey Fletcher, Precious**
      Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell, District 9**
      Nick Hornby, An Education*

      Best Editing

      Stephen Rivkin, John Refoua, James Cameron, Avatar+**
      Chris Innis, Bob Murawski, The Hurt Locker***
      Julian Clarke, District 9**
      Joe Klotz, Precious
      Sally Menke, Inglourious Basterds**

      Best Cinematography
      Mauro Fiore, Avatar+**
      Christian Berger, White Ribbon+++*
      Barry Ackroyd, The Hurt Locker***
      Robert Richardson, Inglourious Basterds***
      Bruno Delbonnel, Harry Potter

      Best Art Direction

      Avatar+**
      Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus*
      Nine*
      Sherlock Holmes
      The Young Victoria

      Best Sound Mixing

      Avatar+**
      The Hurt Locker***
      Star Trek* **
      Inglourious Basterds
      Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen*

      Best Sound Editing

      Avatar
      The Hurt Locker
      Up
      Star Trek
      Inglourious Basterds

      Best Costume Design
      Sandy Powell, The Young Victoria +*
      Catherine Leterrier,Coco Avant Chanel*
      Janet Patterson, Bright Star**
      Colleen Atwood, Nine*
      Monique Prudhomme, The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus

      Best Original Score
      Michael Giacchino, Up+*
      Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders, The Hurt Locker!
      James Horner, Avatar*
      Alexandre Desplat, The Fantastic Mr. Fox
      Hans Zimmer, Sherlock Holmes*

      Best Foreign Language Film (submissions)

      A Prophet, France+*
      The White Ribbon, Germany**
      El Secreto de Sus Ojos, Argentina
      Ajami, Israel
      The Milk of Sorrow, Pru


      Best Documentary Feature

      The Cove++**+
      Food, Inc.**
      The Beaches of Agnes++*
      Burma VJ*
      The Most Dangerous Man in America
      Which Way Home


      Best Animated Feature
      Up+++**
      The Fantastic Mr. Fox+*+***
      Coraline****
      The Princess and the Frog***
      The Secret of Kells

      Best Visual Effects

      Avatar+*
      District 9* *
      Star Trek**

      Best Makeup

      The Young Victoria**
      Star Trek*

      Il Divo*


      Best Song
      The Weary Kind – T Bone Burnett, Ryan Bingham, Crazy Heart ++
      Down in New Orleans, The Princess and the Frog
      Almost There – Randy Newman, The Princess And The Frog***
      Loin de Paname, Paris 36

      Best Live Action Short
      The Door
      Instead of Abracadabra
      Kavi
      Miracle Fish
      The New Tenants


      Best Animated Short
      French Roast
      Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty
      The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte)
      Logorama
      A Matter of Loaf and Death


      Best Documentary Short

      China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province
      The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner
      The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant
      Music by Prudence
      Rabbit a la Berlin