Ew’s Dave Karger just put up a post about the films he thinks have the best shot at a nod come January and the ones that will run in EW’s Oscar issue. He adds that when he made the list Australia hadn’t yet opened and Milk hadn’t yet received the rave reviews, and he says he might change things if asked to do it now — take note, Oscar watchers, things can change on a dime and the Oscar race is not static, it’s fluid. It’s also important to note that only one of these films has opened to the public:
1. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2. Slumdog Millionaire
3. Frost/Nixon
4. Revolutionary Road
5. Doubt
6. Milk
7. The Dark Knight
8. AustraliaThe story closed this past Monday; now that I’ve seen the fantastic reviews for Milk and the horrible early box office for Australia, I might have amended things a bit. (And for what it’s worth, if I had had room for 10 films, I would have added The Reader and Gran Torino as well.) I know all of you out there will have opinions on my list. So let me have it. And have a great long weekend.
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I know that the budget is insane.
But let’s say ‘Australia’ only makes 40 million dollars or so in the U.S. …. if more people see a movie like ‘Australia’ versus some lesser-seen ‘well-reviewed’ films (making 10 million domestically) ….
what’s the difference if the box office total for ‘Australia’ is less-than-expected???
I’d say that a good 7-8 Joe Schmo’s out of 10 who have seen ‘Australia’ already think it is good or great. Does AMPAS feed off of that?
I just don’t see DOUBT making the Top 5, sorry.
The others, maybe….
VOTE DARK KNIGHT!
Doubt over Milk? Nah.
“Australia” is actually excellent. Too bad the stuffy critics have given it confusingly mixed reactions… and too bad more people aren’t ignoring those assholes and seeing it.
I have to agree with The Natural. I saw Australia yesterday and was very pleasantly surprised. Is it the best film I’ve seen this year? No, but it is one of the best films I’ve seen this year, beautifully filmed, beautifully acted and with a fantastic, sweeping scope that’s a love letter from Baz Luhrmann to his country. I’m perplexed at the mixed reviews that are coming in for it- yes, it’s longer than it needs to be, but so were each of the LoTR films, and I enjoyed Australia much more than any of them.
I thought Australia was a great film! It is a little long but it all comes together in the end. I haven’t seen any other films that may be Oscar contenders yet but I wouldn’t count this film out of the race just yet. I thought Nicole Kidman and Hugh Jackman were great and I could tell they did have chemistry on screen. And yes even though I am a huge Nicole fan that doesn’t mean i liked the movie just because of her. I also know she hasn’t made the greatest choices lately but I believe this was a good choice for her. Love the Cinematography and believe Australia will surprise a lot of people when it gets a bunch of nominations. It’s got a big chance on the technical stuff and why not in the acting categories it might as well. PLease people go see this movie don’t do what the critics just want u to do. Go to theatres and see it for yourself before they tell u otherwise.
Anybody else suspect what happened in Mumbai might have effectively ended Slumdog Millionaire’s frontrunner status and perhaps hurt its odds at a nomination altogether?
No, I don’t think so.
Terrorists attack Mumbai, so let’s punish the Mumbai movie?
If anything, the sympathy will help it’s chances.
I doubt it, Ryan.
The movie has very strong islamic sympathies. I’m not saying this is by any means a bad thing, but I can’t help but feel there might be a contingent of conservative voters who might target the movie for those sympathies. I think you might be underrating how people will interpret the considerably strong political undertones of the movie.
I’d hope audiences and AMPAS voters are sophisticated and sensitive enough not to conflate Islamic sympathies with Radical Islam sympathizers. It’s Hollywood, not Utah.
You can’t put “The Dark Knight” that low on any list this year. Just you wait… it will return come Oscar time. Oscar-obsessers may have temporarily forgotten about it, but voters will not. The Academy WANTS to nominate this movie.
Also, “Australia” confirmed that Baz Luhrmann could be the one that makes the single most brilliant 21st century post-modern boundary-pushing film. He has all the brilliance and tools and vision to do it. Unfortunately, “Australia” had SERIOUS structural problems. No Oscars anywhere near Baz this year. (Meanwhile, “Moulin Rouge” still has those superlatives.)
Doubt will not make the final 5, it will pick up some acting nominations more than likely. Ditto MILK, the hype over the film is ludicrous, Penn was terrific but Best Pic material…..nope.
I’m still on the fence about Benjamin Button, getting alright reactions but nothing spectacular. Frost/Nixon has a shot at a nominaton but I don’t think its a lock for a nomination like many are saying it is.
The 5 atm..
Slumdog Millionaire
Benjamin Button
Revolutionary Road
The Dark Knight
Gran Torino or Frost/Nixon
Australia=no way. The Reader..ehhh.
Doubt is The Queen/Capote of this year. I am starting to believe that it will get the BP nod. Its a quaint, short story that hits you in the gut if acted and directed well.
Slumdog could lose its footholding. Its overall a good film. Overrated, like Juno, but still good. I can very well see it falling off the list.
The Reader, Gran Torino, Frost/Nixon, Rachael Getting Married, and Australia are all walking tight rope. We gotta wait til release. I don’t get the hype over The Reader – holocaust is so nineties and the acting looks inconsistent. Gran Torino is very close to becoming a Eastwood vehicle and not that good of a film. Frost/Nixon just doesn’t have it. Rachael Getting Married is very much overlooked and Australia is a wait and see.
I have to agree with Jerry. I know we’re just hapless Oscar bloggers, and surely WE can’t know more than the critics (psyche), but THE DARK KNIGHT should, at the very list, be on each critic’s top 3 list as of now. I understand the backlash it has going for it, being an action hero film and all, but if it ends up being the best film of the year (or even one of them), give it its due.
VOTE CHANGE. . .AGAIN
VOTE THE DARK KNIGHT, Best Picture, 2009
Just got back from a screening of Frost/Nixon and am kinda re-thinking the race. First of all, the film is great and it’s much more analogous to The Queen than Doubt, down to Michael Sheen’s role in both pieces. The acting is uniformly excellent, especially the two leads, and since I never saw the stage play, I can’t compare the two versions, but Howard has clearly “opened the material up.”
Up until now I had been thinking of Frost/Nixon and Doubt as two peas in a pod (stage adaptations/actors’ showcases) and was convinced that only one of them could get a Best Pic nod, but now it seems to me that Frost/Nixon’s big competition is Milk, the other film about the ’70s and a transitional period in American politics. (If W were in the running, it would also be in this polit-biopic group–and that I found Ron Howard’s film sharper and more challenging than Oliver Stone’s was quite the surprise.) Frost/Nixon is IMO a better film than Doubt and if I had to pick five tonight, without having seen Defiance, Australia, The Reader or Gran Torino:
THE HOLLYWOOD LOCKS:
Milk (the ’70s, gay rights; biopic-drama)
Revolutionary Road (the ’50s, marriage; drama)
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (the 20th Century, love, loyalty, family, maturity; romance-fantasy-drama)
THE OUTSIDER:
Slumdog Millionaire (late ’80s/early ’90s – present day, fantasy, escapism, family, loyalty, love, poverty; drama)
THE FORCE:
The Dark Knight (present day; action-adventure drama)
So I haven’t really changed my mind since the screening tonight. I am still one of those people who believe in Harvey Dent, I mean, The Dark Knight. If I didn’t, I would have to choose between Frost/Nixon, Doubt, The Wrestler and Rachel Getting Married.
And I’d pick Rachel to fill the contemporary American indie(-ish) slot this year.
I have said my spill on
Australia it is a contender and will be.
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