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Dave Karger Names Them

Posted by Susan Thea Posnock On November - 28 - 2008

Ew’s Dave Karger just put up a post about the films he thinks have the best shot at a nod come January and the ones that will run in EW’s Oscar issue.  He adds that when he made the list Australia hadn’t yet opened and Milk hadn’t yet received the rave reviews, and he says he might change things if asked to do it now — take note, Oscar watchers, things can change on a dime and the Oscar race is not static, it’s fluid.  It’s also important to note that only one of these films has opened to the public:

1. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2. Slumdog Millionaire
3. Frost/Nixon
4. Revolutionary Road
5. Doubt
6. Milk
7. The Dark Knight
8. Australia

The story closed this past Monday; now that I’ve seen the fantastic reviews for Milk and the horrible early box office for Australia, I might have amended things a bit. (And for what it’s worth, if I had had room for 10 films, I would have added The Reader and Gran Torino as well.) I know all of you out there will have opinions on my list. So let me have it. And have a great long weekend.

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No Response for "Dave Karger Names Them"

  1. John November 28th, 2008 at 1:08 pm 1

    I know that the budget is insane.

    But let’s say ‘Australia’ only makes 40 million dollars or so in the U.S. …. if more people see a movie like ‘Australia’ versus some lesser-seen ‘well-reviewed’ films (making 10 million domestically) ….

    what’s the difference if the box office total for ‘Australia’ is less-than-expected???

    I’d say that a good 7-8 Joe Schmo’s out of 10 who have seen ‘Australia’ already think it is good or great. Does AMPAS feed off of that?

  2. RRA is a Name November 28th, 2008 at 2:24 pm 2

    I just don’t see DOUBT making the Top 5, sorry.

    The others, maybe….

    VOTE DARK KNIGHT!

  3. Richard November 28th, 2008 at 4:09 pm 3

    Doubt over Milk? Nah.

  4. The Natural November 28th, 2008 at 5:19 pm 4

    “Australia” is actually excellent. Too bad the stuffy critics have given it confusingly mixed reactions… and too bad more people aren’t ignoring those assholes and seeing it.

  5. Datatape November 28th, 2008 at 10:01 pm 5

    I have to agree with The Natural. I saw Australia yesterday and was very pleasantly surprised. Is it the best film I’ve seen this year? No, but it is one of the best films I’ve seen this year, beautifully filmed, beautifully acted and with a fantastic, sweeping scope that’s a love letter from Baz Luhrmann to his country. I’m perplexed at the mixed reviews that are coming in for it- yes, it’s longer than it needs to be, but so were each of the LoTR films, and I enjoyed Australia much more than any of them.

  6. Adrian V. November 28th, 2008 at 11:53 pm 6

    I thought Australia was a great film! It is a little long but it all comes together in the end. I haven’t seen any other films that may be Oscar contenders yet but I wouldn’t count this film out of the race just yet. I thought Nicole Kidman and Hugh Jackman were great and I could tell they did have chemistry on screen. And yes even though I am a huge Nicole fan that doesn’t mean i liked the movie just because of her. I also know she hasn’t made the greatest choices lately but I believe this was a good choice for her. Love the Cinematography and believe Australia will surprise a lot of people when it gets a bunch of nominations. It’s got a big chance on the technical stuff and why not in the acting categories it might as well. PLease people go see this movie don’t do what the critics just want u to do. Go to theatres and see it for yourself before they tell u otherwise.

  7. harry November 29th, 2008 at 1:12 am 7

    Anybody else suspect what happened in Mumbai might have effectively ended Slumdog Millionaire’s frontrunner status and perhaps hurt its odds at a nomination altogether?

  8. Robert November 29th, 2008 at 1:21 am 8

    No, I don’t think so.

  9. Ryan Adams November 29th, 2008 at 1:21 am 9

    Terrorists attack Mumbai, so let’s punish the Mumbai movie?

    If anything, the sympathy will help it’s chances.

  10. harry November 29th, 2008 at 1:47 am 10

    I doubt it, Ryan.

    The movie has very strong islamic sympathies. I’m not saying this is by any means a bad thing, but I can’t help but feel there might be a contingent of conservative voters who might target the movie for those sympathies. I think you might be underrating how people will interpret the considerably strong political undertones of the movie.

  11. Ryan Adams November 29th, 2008 at 2:03 am 11

    I’d hope audiences and AMPAS voters are sophisticated and sensitive enough not to conflate Islamic sympathies with Radical Islam sympathizers. It’s Hollywood, not Utah.

  12. Jerry Grant November 29th, 2008 at 2:08 am 12

    You can’t put “The Dark Knight” that low on any list this year. Just you wait… it will return come Oscar time. Oscar-obsessers may have temporarily forgotten about it, but voters will not. The Academy WANTS to nominate this movie.

    Also, “Australia” confirmed that Baz Luhrmann could be the one that makes the single most brilliant 21st century post-modern boundary-pushing film. He has all the brilliance and tools and vision to do it. Unfortunately, “Australia” had SERIOUS structural problems. No Oscars anywhere near Baz this year. (Meanwhile, “Moulin Rouge” still has those superlatives.)

  13. Dan November 29th, 2008 at 9:40 am 13

    Doubt will not make the final 5, it will pick up some acting nominations more than likely. Ditto MILK, the hype over the film is ludicrous, Penn was terrific but Best Pic material…..nope.
    I’m still on the fence about Benjamin Button, getting alright reactions but nothing spectacular. Frost/Nixon has a shot at a nominaton but I don’t think its a lock for a nomination like many are saying it is.

    The 5 atm..

    Slumdog Millionaire
    Benjamin Button
    Revolutionary Road
    The Dark Knight
    Gran Torino or Frost/Nixon

    Australia=no way. The Reader..ehhh.

  14. Will November 29th, 2008 at 11:39 pm 14

    Doubt is The Queen/Capote of this year. I am starting to believe that it will get the BP nod. Its a quaint, short story that hits you in the gut if acted and directed well.

    Slumdog could lose its footholding. Its overall a good film. Overrated, like Juno, but still good. I can very well see it falling off the list.

    The Reader, Gran Torino, Frost/Nixon, Rachael Getting Married, and Australia are all walking tight rope. We gotta wait til release. I don’t get the hype over The Reader – holocaust is so nineties and the acting looks inconsistent. Gran Torino is very close to becoming a Eastwood vehicle and not that good of a film. Frost/Nixon just doesn’t have it. Rachael Getting Married is very much overlooked and Australia is a wait and see.

  15. Free November 30th, 2008 at 12:48 am 15

    I have to agree with Jerry. I know we’re just hapless Oscar bloggers, and surely WE can’t know more than the critics (psyche), but THE DARK KNIGHT should, at the very list, be on each critic’s top 3 list as of now. I understand the backlash it has going for it, being an action hero film and all, but if it ends up being the best film of the year (or even one of them), give it its due.

    VOTE CHANGE. . .AGAIN
    VOTE THE DARK KNIGHT, Best Picture, 2009

  16. Paul Outlaw November 30th, 2008 at 3:05 am 16

    Just got back from a screening of Frost/Nixon and am kinda re-thinking the race. First of all, the film is great and it’s much more analogous to The Queen than Doubt, down to Michael Sheen’s role in both pieces. The acting is uniformly excellent, especially the two leads, and since I never saw the stage play, I can’t compare the two versions, but Howard has clearly “opened the material up.”

    Up until now I had been thinking of Frost/Nixon and Doubt as two peas in a pod (stage adaptations/actors’ showcases) and was convinced that only one of them could get a Best Pic nod, but now it seems to me that Frost/Nixon’s big competition is Milk, the other film about the ’70s and a transitional period in American politics. (If W were in the running, it would also be in this polit-biopic group–and that I found Ron Howard’s film sharper and more challenging than Oliver Stone’s was quite the surprise.) Frost/Nixon is IMO a better film than Doubt and if I had to pick five tonight, without having seen Defiance, Australia, The Reader or Gran Torino:

    THE HOLLYWOOD LOCKS:
    Milk (the ’70s, gay rights; biopic-drama)
    Revolutionary Road (the ’50s, marriage; drama)
    The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (the 20th Century, love, loyalty, family, maturity; romance-fantasy-drama)

    THE OUTSIDER:
    Slumdog Millionaire (late ’80s/early ’90s – present day, fantasy, escapism, family, loyalty, love, poverty; drama)

    THE FORCE:
    The Dark Knight (present day; action-adventure drama)

    So I haven’t really changed my mind since the screening tonight. I am still one of those people who believe in Harvey Dent, I mean, The Dark Knight. If I didn’t, I would have to choose between Frost/Nixon, Doubt, The Wrestler and Rachel Getting Married.

    And I’d pick Rachel to fill the contemporary American indie(-ish) slot this year.

  17. Drew November 30th, 2008 at 6:21 am 17

    I have said my spill on
    Australia it is a contender and will be.


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  • Contender Tracker

    Best Picture
    Up in the Air
    Nine
    The Hurt Locker
    An Education
    Precious: Based on the Novel
    Push by Sapphire

    A Serious Man
    Inglourious Basterds
    Up

    Julie & Julia
    Star Trek
    District 9
    Bright Star
    Where the Wild Things Are
    A Single Man

    Best Actor
    Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
    Colin Firth, A Single Man
    George Clooney, Up in the Air
    Matt Damon, The Informant!
    Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
    Viggo Mortensen, The Road
    Ben Foster, The Messenger
    Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man
    Michael Sheen, The Damned United

    Best Actress
    Gabby Sidibe, Precious
    Carey Mulligan, An Education
    Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
    Abbie Cornish, Bright Star
    Helen Mirren, The Last Station
    Michelle Monaghan, Trucker

    Best Supporting Actor
    Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
    Alfred Molina, An Education
    Stanley Tucci, Julie & Julia
    Peter Sarsgaard, An Education
    Robert Duvall, Crazy Heart
    Peter Capaldi, In the Loop
    Zach Galifianakis, The Hangover
    Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker
    Brian Geraghty, The Hurt Locker

    Best Supporting Actress
    Mo'Nique,Precious
    Anna Kendrick,Up in the Air
    Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
    Julianne Moore, A Single Man
    Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds
    Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
    Samantha Morton, The Messenger
    Emma Thompson, An Education
    Cara Seymour, An Education

    Best Director
    Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
    Lee Daniels, Precious
    Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
    Lone Scherfig, An Education
    Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
    Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man
    Neill Blomkamp, District 9
    Spike Jonze, Where the Wild Things Are
    Tom Ford, A Single Man
    Jane Campion, Bright Star

    Best Original Screenplay
    Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
    Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man
    Jane Campion, Bright Star
    Quentin Tarantino,Inglourious Basterds
    Michael Haneke,White Ribbon
    Bob Peterson, Pete Docter,Up
    Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber, 500 Days of Summer

    Best Adapted Screenplay
    Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air
    Nick Hornby, An Education
    Spike Jonze, Dave Eggars, Where the Wild Things Are
    Peter Morgan, The Damned United
    Geoffrey Fletcher, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
    Scott Burns, The Informant!
    Tom Ford, A Single Man

    Best Editing

    Chris Innis, Bob Murawski, The Hurt Locker
    Sally Menke, Inglourious Basterds
    Dana E. Glauberman,, Up in the Air
    Joel and Ethan Coen,, A Serious Man

    Best Cinematography
    Greig Fraser,Bright Star
    Robert Richardson,Inglourious Basterds
    Roger Deakins, A Serious Man
    Christian Berger, White Ribbon
    Bruno Delbonnel,Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
    Barry Ackroyd, The Hurt Locker

    Best Art Direction

    Where the Wild Things Are
    Julie & Julia
    Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
    Bright Star
    Inglourious Basterds
    White Ribbon
    District 9
    A Serious Man

    Best Sound Mixing

    Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
    District 9
    Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
    The Hurt Locker
    Star Trek

    Best Sound Editing

    District 9
    Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
    Star Trek
    Up

    Best Costume Design
    Janet Patterson, Bright Star
    Jany Temime,Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
    Anna B. Sheppard,Inglourious Basterds
    Mary Zophre, A Serious Man
    Colleen Atwood, Public Enemies
    Consolata Boyle,Cheri

    Best Original Score
    Carter Burwell, Karen O,Where the Wild Things Are
    Carter Burwell,A Serious Man
    Michael Giacchino,Up
    Alexandre Desplat, Cheri
    Elliot Goldenthal, Public Enemies

    Best Foreign Language Film (submissions)

    Letters from Father Jacob, Finland
    White Wedding, South Africa
    A Prophet, France
    Dawson, Isla 10, Chile
    Nobody to Watch Over Me, Japan
    Prince of Tears, Hong Kong
    No puedo vivir sin ti, Taiwan
    Kelin, Kazakhstan
    Mother, Korea
    The White Ribbon, Germany
    Silent Army, The Netherlands


    Best Documentary Feature

    The Beaches of Agnes
    Burma VJ
    The Cove
    Every Little Step
    Facing Ali
    Food, Inc.
    Garbage Dreams
    Living in Emergency
    The Most Dangerous Man in America
    Mugabe and the White African
    Sergio
    Soundtrack for a Revolution
    Under Our Skin
    Valentino
    Which Way Home


    Best Animated Feature
    Up
    The Princess and the Frog
    Coraline
    The Fantastic Mr. Fox
    A Christmas Carol
    Mary and Max
    Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
    Ponyo


    Best Visual Effects
    Star Trek
    District 9
    A Christmas Carol
    Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
    Transformers


    Best Makeup

    Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
    District 9

    Best Song

    Best Live Action Short

    Best Animated Short

    Best Documentary Short

    China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province
    The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner
    The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant
    Lt. Watada
    Music by Prudence
    Rabbit a la Berlin
    Tell Them Anything You Want: A Portrait of Maurice Sendak
    Woman Rebel

  • Ampas Breakdown

    Actors-1,222
    Producers-462
    Executives-436
    Sound-411
    Writers-388
    Art Directors-373
    Directors-375
    Public Relations-370
    Members at Large-254
    Shorts/Feature Ani-335
    Visual Effects-272
    Music-233
    Editors-227
    Cinematographers-197
    Documentary-145
    Makeup-115
    Total Voting Members -approx 6,000
  • Tuesday, December 1, 2009: Official Screen Credits forms due

    Monday, December 28, 2009: Nominations ballots mailed

    Saturday, January 23, 2010: Nominations polls close 5 p.m. PT

    Tuesday, February 2, 2010: Nominations announced 5:30 a.m. PT, Samuel Goldwyn Theater

    Wednesday, February 10, 2010: Final ballots mailed

    Monday, February 15, 2010: Nominees Luncheon

    Saturday, February 20, 2010: Scientific and Technical Achievement Awards presentation

    Tuesday, March 2, 2010: Final polls close 5 p.m. PT

    Sunday, March 7, 2010: 82nd Annual Academy Awards presentation