As promised, here is the annual comparison of just what the NBR has meant to Oscar over the past few years. First off, the winner of the NBR’s Best Pic has gone on to be nominated every year for the past eight years. You have to go back to Quills to find one that didn’t. And even with the occasional film that doesn’t land in the top five their track record is pretty darned good.
A Best Pic chart after the jump.
NBR Best Pic | Oscar Best Pic
| 2007 | No Country for Old Men | No Country for Old Men (4/5) |
| 2006 | Letters from Iwo Jima | The Departed (4/5) |
| 2005 | Good Night, and Good Luck | Crash (5/5) |
| 2004 | Finding Neverland | Million Dollar Baby (5/5) |
| 2003 | Mystic River | Return of the King (4/5) |
| 2002 | The Hours | Chicago (4/5) |
| 2001 | Moulin Rouge | A Beautiful Mind (2/5) |
| 2000 | Quills | Gladiator (2/5) |
| 1999 | American Beauty | American Beauty (2/5) |
| 1998 | Gods and Monsters | Shakespeare in Love (4/5) |
| 1997 | L.A. Confidential | Titanic (5/5) |
| 1996 | Shine | The English Patient (5/5) |
| 1995 | Sense and Sensibility | Braveheart (3/5) |
| 1994 | Pulp Fiction and Forrest Gump | Forrest Gump (5/5) |
| 1993 | Schindler’s List |
Schindler’s List (4/5) |
| 1992 | Howards End | Unforgiven (5/5) |
| 1991 | Silence of the Lambs | Silence of the Lambs (2/5) |
| 1990 | Dances With Wolves | Dances With Wolves (3/5) |
| 1989 | Driving Miss Daisy | Driving Miss Daisy (5/5) |
| 1988 | Mississippi Burning | Rain Man (2/5) |
| 1987 | Empire of the Sun | The Last Emperor (4/5) |
| 1986 | A Room with a View | Platoon (5/5) |
| 1985 | The Color Purple | Out of Africa (5/5) |
| 1984 | A Passage to India | Amadeus (4/5) |
| 1983 | Betrayal | Terms of Endearment (5/5) |
| 1982 | Gandhi | Gandhi (5/5) |
| 1981 | Chariots of Fire | Chariots of Fire (5/5) |
| 1980 | Ordinary People | Ordinary People (5/5) |
| 1979 | Manhattan | Kramer Vs. Kramer (3/5) |
| 1978 | Days of Heaven | The Deer Hunter (3/5) |
| 1977 | The Turning Point | Annie Hall(4/5) |
| 1976 | All the President’s Men | Rocky (3/5) |
| 1975 | Nashville/Barry Lyndon | One Flew Over/Cukoo’s Nest (4/5) |
| 1974 | The Conversation | Godfather II (3/5) |
| 1973 | The Sting | The Sting (1/5) |
| 1972 | Cabaret | The Godfather (4/5) |
| 1971 | MacBeth | The French Connection (3/5) |
| 1970 | Patton | Patton (3/5) |
| 1969 | They Shoot Horses, Don’t They? | Midnight Cowboy (2/5) |
| 1968 | The Shoes of the Fisherman | Oliver(4/5) |
| 1967 | Far from the Madding Crowd | In Heat of the Night (2/5) |
| 1966 | A Man for All Seasons | A Man for all Seasons (4/5) |
| 1965 | The Eleanor Roosevelt Story | the Sound of Music(5/5) |
| 1964 | Becket | My Fair Lady (3/5) |
| 1963 | Tom Jones | Tom Jones (3/3) |
| 1962 | The Longest Day | Lawrence of Arabia (2/5) |
| 1961 | Question 7 | West Side Story(4/5) |
| 1960 | Sons and Lovers | The Apartment(5/5) |
| 1959 | The Nun’s Story | Ben Hur(4/5) |
| 1958 | The Old Man and the Sea | Gigi(3/5) |
| 1957 | Bridge on the River Kwai | Bridge on the River Kwai (2/5) |
| 1956 | Around the World in 80 Days | Around/World in 80 Days (2/5) |
| 1955 | Marty | Marty (4/5) |
| 1954 | On the Waterfront | On the Waterfront (3/5) |
| 1953 | Julius Cesar | From here to Eternity(5/5) |
| 1952 | The Quiet Man | Greatest Show on Earth (1/5) |
| 1951 | A Place in the Sun | An American in Paris (5/5) |
| 1950 | Sunset Boulevard | All About Eve (2/2) |
| 1949 | The Bicycle Thief | All the King’s Men (2/5) |
| 1948 | Paisan | Hamlet (5/5) |
| 1947 | Monsieur Verdoux | Gentlemen’s Agreement(3/5) |
| 1946 | Henry V | The Best Years of Our Lives(2/5) |
| 1945 | The True Glory | The Lost Weekend(1/5) |
| 1944 | None But the Lonely Heart | Going My Way (2/5) |
| 1943 | The Ox-Bow Incident | Casablanca |
| 1942 | In Which We Serve | Mrs. Miniver |
| 1941 | Citizen Kane | How Green was my Valley |
| 1940 | The Grapes of Wrath | Rebecca |
| 1939 | Confessions of a Nazi Spy | Gone with the Wind(for previous year) |
| 1938 | The Citadel | You Can’t Take it With You |
| 1937 | Night Must Fall | The Live of Emile Zola |
| 1936 | Mr. Deeds Goes to Town | The Great Ziegfield |
| 1935 | The Informer | Mutiny on the Bounty |
| 1934 | It Happened One Night | It Happened One Night |
Top ten of 2007
No Country for Old Men*
The Assassination of Jesse James
Atonement
The Bourne Ultimatum
The Bucket List
Into the Wild
Juno
The Kite Runner
Lars and the Real Girl
Michael Clayton
Sweeney Todd
Top ten of 2006
Letters From Iwo Jima
Babel
Blood Diamond
The Departed*
The Devil Wears Prada
Flags Of Our Fathers
The History Boys
Little Miss Sunshine
Notes On A Scandal
The Painted Veil
Top ten films in 2005
Good Night, And Good Luck
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash*
A History of Violence
Match Point
Memoirs of a Geisha
Munich
Syriana
Walk the Line
Top ten in 2004
1. Finding Neverland
2. The Aviator
3. Closer
4. Million Dollar Baby*
5. Sideways
6. Kinsey
7. Vera Drake
8. Ray
9. Collateral
10. Hotel Rwanda
Top ten films in 2003:
Mystic River
The Last Samurai
The Station Agent
21 Grams
House of Sand and Fog
Lost in Translation
Cold Mountain
In America
Seabiscuit
Master and Commander
At least three of the eventual big five end up on their list and most of the time the winner is buried somewhere in there, very rarely do the two collide, as they did last year with No Country for Old Men. The NBR has taken a lot of heat over the years, with accusations of this or that, but the plain truth of it is, for our purposes, none of that really matters; They are far more mainstream than most other voting bodies, except maybe the BFCA (Critics Choice) or the HFPA (Globes).
For the NBR, there should be a broad-ish sampling of the pics. I like Frozen River for it and think it will make the list – it stands out this year because of the great reviews and that it is one of the very few films to be written and directed by a woman. It stars Melissa Leo who, hands down, gave one of the best female performances of the year. I also expect, even though they haven’t opened yet, Revolutionary Road and Gran Torino to be on there (unless they didn’t screen Gran Torino – but they love them some Eastwood so Changeling might be there instead). Slumdog Millionaire will be there for sure, might even win. I’m also liking Doubt, Milk and The Dark Knight for it, though they don’t really go for the big effects-driven films. Perhaps Defiance, Australia, Frost/Nixon, The Reader — the real question is Benjamin Button – a film that is still a big question mark with critics. My feeling is that the winner is either going to be Milk or Gran Torino. But I’ve never accurately predicted the NBR, so take it with a grain of salt.
No Response for "National Board of Review Stat-o-Rama"
Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Knight
The Reader
Frost/Nixon
Revolutionary Road
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Milk
Doubt
Defiance
Happy-Go-Lucky
They will be the top ten me thinks. And the dog will have its day.
There´s a chance that Benjamin Button doesn´t make it in the top ten.
*The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Revoutionary Road
Rachel Getting Married
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Wrestler
Australia
Defiance
Happy-Go-Lucky
Milk
I think I made a grievous error, leaving The Reader off my list. Oh well…
Top films of 2007: The Bucket List? WTF?
Whatever be their choices, they are important none the less and the oldest critics circle I presume. Some very good choices over the years when the Oscars stumbled.
But their Top 10 is pretty conventional, I think 8 of the 10 will be very safe, the usual normal Oscar contenders and 2 will be weird picks to distinguish themselves.
It would be more interesting what they leave OFF rather than what makes the list.
I think that film will be The Dark Knight.
How the hell could they leave THERE WILL BE BLOOD out of last year’s list? That’s astonishing…I’m hoping they didn’t get any screeners in time or something — embarassing.
Their greatest out-of-nowhere selection: 1969’s Best Actress Geraldine Page for “Trilogy.” Seldom seen, but perhaps her best perfomance ever. Anyone know where the DVD rights are?
The ’40s and ’50s were a pretty good era for NBR Best Picture picks, but what happened in 1956? Incidentally, how many times has the Cannes Palme d’Or/Grand Prix winner (that year, Friendly Persuasion) gone on to win the Oscar for Best Picture? Twice: Marty (the previous year) and The Lost Weekend (1946). This year’s unanimous winner of the Palme d’Or: The Class. Only five winners have gone on to win the Oscar for Best Foreign Language Film: Gate of Hell, Black Orpheus, A Man and a Woman, The Tin Drum and Pelle the Conqueror (the last in 1988).
They seem to like literate and theatrical pieces – meditations on art ?
Not sure what fits the bill this year ?
Rob: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Reader perhaps.
Benjamin Button would be like the obvious choice. Before No Country, their choices were never front-runners.
So maybe Milk, but that would be kinda obvious too, though not as obvious as Benjamin Button.
But is Benjamin Button really the frontrunner as much as Milk and Slumdog are?
Most nominations wise. Whatever the reviews might be, Art, Costume, Cinematography, Make-Up, Visual Effects, Score, Screenplay, Supp. Actress, Actress are almost sure shot nominees. And the reviews are mostly good. Its also the most prestigious and most all-round well made(production wise) of the lot.
I think Benjamin Button and Milk will each get a minimum of six to seven nominations, Slumdog possibly four. But Slumdog still is more of a Best Pic lock than Button — at this point.
I recently read that people were attending Milk and especially Button screenings in spades and there was tremendous demand. But the Slumdog screenings were only half full. The article credited that to the fact that Slumdog’s screeners are already out. Slumdog is a lock but it has the least star power, even less than Doubt, it’ll purely get in based on how good it is.
I’m wondering, SO many people get screeners, literally every American must atleast know somebody who gets screeners. Its a miracle they go to theaters at all.
I don’t get screeners but I get invited to a lot of screenings. I much prefer going to a theater or screening room, it’s like an end-of-year film festival for about six weeks or so. The one year I did get screeners it was kind of a pain in the ass. I couldn’t give away most of them because of the piracy issues and I still haven’t watched all of them.
[...] woo the NBR), while Sasha Stone has provided a space for your own predictions and a rundown of NBR stats and how they compare with Oscar through the years. Ugh. I just can’t bring myself to [...]
Piracy – Smiracy! Paul if you don’t want your screener please send them my way. I will also gladly fill out any ballots that you don’t have time to yourself.
Alfredo – the only screeners I have are from 2006.
And I like filling out ballots, but thanks for the offer.
I’m expecting the unexpected this year. No “Bucket List”-esque surprise will get past me, nosiree.
Slumdog Millionaire
Australia
Revolutionary Road
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Milk
The Wrestler
Doubt
Gran Torino
The Dark Knight
Seven Pounds
For some reason there is endless amounts of attention being given to The Bucket List being a poor choice — you know, the movie wasn’t that bad. It wasn’t a 10, it was about a 6, but I don’t see why that particular movie invalidates them as a voting body.
Sasha, I think the fact that The Bucket List was a “December surprise” without any hipness factor whatsoever really riled people up who had their best-of-year lists almost set in stone. The film didn’t eventually figure in the awards races anyway — aside from NBR, it only received a nomination from the Sound Editors Guild — so there’s no real reason to hate on it so much. In some ways I much prefer it to As Good As It Gets, to tell the truth.
NBR like any voting body has its eccentric moments. But as Sasha points out their 10 choices often correspond to at least 3 subsequent nominees. I wonder though whether the value of such prognostication might be lessened this time around given what appears a relatively narrow field of serious contenders. In other words, almost every voting group’s top 10s might well throw up 3-5 of the eventual nominees. In contrast, the field last year seemed far more open at this stage and as such the earlier awards not only were of greater value as predictors but also offered the endorsed films a competitive edge.
NBR’s greatest moment of the past 30 years?
That’s easy.
In 1987 they picked Stephen Spielberg’s masterpiece EMPIRE OF THE SUN as Best Film. It was subsequently omitted for a Best Pix nominations at the Oscars, despite scoring in six other categories. EMPIRE, my own choice for the best film of the year won nothing else aside from the NBR top prize.
sartre, I completely agree with all the points you made in your post here.
I remember when Bucket List made this list I became VERY excited to see the movie only to be let down BIG TIME. The NBR voters must be older then 60. The NBR list is still top notch considering ‘Wild’ and ‘Lars’ made the list. That rocked!
Sasha, what made 1999’s list? It’s my favorite movie year!
“…there is endless amounts of attention being given to The Bucket List being a poor choice …but I don’t see why that particular movie invalidates them as a voting body.”
So true, Sasha. If an occasional poor choice invalidated a voting body, then AMPAS would be invalidated every 3 or 4 years. And The Golden Globes would be on perpetual invalidation parole.
I thought The Bucket List was a stinker — 85% of its metacritic scores were 65 and below — but part of the value of NBR is that they are not exclusively an organization of critics. According to wiki NBR is 125 people “composed of knowledgeable film buffs, academics, young film professionals, and students in the New York metropolitan area.” (like, you know: normal people. A cross section that might be more representative of real audiences — and real Academy members)
So ok, enough of those people found The Bucket List worthwhile — moving, funny, or something. We might not agree, but The Bucket List has a respectable 7.6 on IMDb. That’s more than I’d give it, but it’s not as if they nominated — I dunno, The Green Mile, or some shit. Nope, The Green Mile is classic Oscar pablum (only 55% of its metacritic scores were under 65.)
I’m not saying The Green Mile is trash. Just that it would take a substantial cash incentive of some sort for me to sit through its 3-hours of cornpone preachifying ever again.
It’s not junk. But The Green Mile nominated as one of the Top 5 movies of 1999? c’mon. Don’t make me ink up my Invalidated stamp.
[...] because neither is exactly known for flexibility. So this being crunch time in the race – the National Board of Review will announce their top 10 later today – you would expect some smack talk in the [...]
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