The Los Angeles Film Critics will get together on Tuesday, the 9th, to vote on and choose the best picture of the year. Last year it was There Will Be Blood at a time when No Country was burning down the house. This year? It’s a toss up as to which film they will choose. Let’s take a brief look at LAFCA’s history.
Wait, before we start, take a look at their swanky new website – a total upgrade from their previous bare bones design. Hey, we know that content is king on the net but no one is going to complain if everything looks prettier. Now we’ll just have to see if their site can handle the server clog – the poor NBR was having some trouble yesterday. I don’t think most normal people are prepared for the mania on the web for this sort of thing.
The Los Angeles Film Critics’ top prize, as you can see below, doesn’t often match up with Oscar for Best Picture. But a recent trend reveals that their winner might be a nominee. After a heated exchange with Scott Foundas last year we discovered that the LAFCA chafes at the Oscar comparison and though they, like most groups, would like to be the main influence when it comes to choosing the Best Picture, they don’t really like being compared to, or being associated with Oscar. Poor Oscar. Nobody likes him. He’s like the millionaire uncle everyone hopes will leave them money but garners neither respect nor love.
Looking back over their history, but for a few odd picks, they have great taste. Brokeback, Crouching Tiger, The Insider – these are movies that were all better than the eventual winner for Best Picture (some will argue that Gladiator was better than Crouching Tiger and that’s debatable).
How will they go this year? It’s difficult to say. And though we tend to focus on Best Picture more than the other categories, this is a good time for an actor or actress to be singled out as well.
The LAFCA doesn’t go full indie like the NSFC sometimes do — chances are their choice will be a film that is headed for the Kodak so it shouldn’t come as a total shock. There Will Be Blood was a sort of surprising choice at the time simply because many thought it would be No Country. But they went a different way than most critics groups.
This year, there doesn’t appear to be a consensus emerging, unless it’s Slumdog, and likely the picks from each group will be all over the place.
The other thing to remember is that the LAFCA will be getting together on Tuesday to vote. They haven’t already turned in ballots which then have to be tabulated. They do it in real time.
So what will they choose? Will they opt out of the genre prejudice and vote in The Dark Knight? Will they go for Milk? That’s the safest bet. Or will they choose to ride the Slumdog train? Either way, we’ll find out soon.
Here is how I think this award could help various films.
Revolutionary Road: would transform its position in the race and put the deserving movie in the top five.
Frost/Nixon: Puts it in second place behind Button.
Benjamin Button: helps the momentum from backsliding.
Milk: Confirms already suspected prominence, drives the fight against Prop 8
Slumdog Millionaire: will hold steady but a win from NYFCC as well makes it the probable Best Pic winner.
Defiance: Puts it in the race.
The Dark Knight: will never happen but would transform the race.
The Reader: transforms the race.
Frozen River or The Visitor – probably helps Melissa Leo or Richard Jenkins more than it does the individual film but then again look at how well In the Bedroom did.
Gran Torino or Changeling – would not surprise me, probably puts Clint in contention for Best Director, maybe alters Best Pic race.
Here is a chart breakdown with Best Picture over the years:
| 2008 | ||
| 2007 | There Will Be Blood | No Country for Old Men |
| 2006 | Letters from Iwo Jima | The Departed |
| 2005 | Brokeback Mountain | Crash |
| 2004 | Sideways | Million Dollar Baby |
| 2003 | American Splendour | Return of the King |
| 2002 | About Schmidt | Chicago |
| 2001 | In the Bedroom | A Beautiful Mind |
| 2000 | Crouching Tiger | Gladiator |
| 1999 | The Insider | American Beauty |
| 1998 | Saving Private Ryan | Shakespeare in Love |
| 1997 | L.A. Confidential | Titanic |
| 1996 | Secrets & Lies | The English Patient |
| 1995 | Leaving Las Vegas | Braveheart |
| 1994 | Pulp Fiction | Forrest Gump |
| 1993 | Schindler’s List | Schindler’s List |
| 1992 | Unforgiven | Unforgiven |
| 1991 | Bugsy | Silence of the Lambs |
| 1990 | Goodfellas | Dances With Wolves |
| 1989 | Do the Right Thing | Driving Miss Daisy |
| 1988 | Little Dorrit | Rain Man |
| 1987 | Hope and Glory | The Last Emperor |
| 1986 | Hannah and Her Sisters | Platoon |
| 1985 | Brazil | Out of Africa |
| 1984 | Amadeus | Amadeus |
| 1983 | Terms of Endearment | Terms of Endearment |
| 1982 | E.T. | Gandhi |
| 1981 | Atlantic City | Chariots of Fire |
| 1980 | Raging Bull | Ordinary People |
| 1979 | Kramer Vs. Kramer | Kramer Vs. Kramer |
| 1978 | Coming Home | The Deer Hunter |
| 1977 | Star Wars | Annie Hall |
| 1976 | Network | Rocky |
| 1975 | Dog Day Afternoon | One Flew Over/Cukoo’s Nest |
No Response for "LAFCA Preview"
I have to say I like the LA critics’ choices over the years, even if they don’t always line up with Oscar. They choose films that hold up over time.
I think the only film on their list that I question is Bugsy.
And I preferred Howard’s End the year of Unforgiven but I’m know I’m in the minority about that.
Damn, I got a feeling they will choose either “Slumdog Millionaire” (who has better chances here than at the more sophisticated New York critics) or they go out on a limb and award an total outsider.
I just don´t feel this group will honor a movie like “Benjamin Button” (who will leave it´s first important mark at the Golden Globes, I´m pretty confident about that) or “Milk”… just a guts feeling.
What about “Happy-go-lucky” or “Gomorrha”? I think it´s not total nonsense to bet on these pics!
Well LAFCA got it right last year — I think ‘Milk’ is the most likely pick, but I fear a ‘Gran Torino’ sneak-attack.
Hopefully, ‘Button’ will score a win and keep ‘Slumdog’ from getting a big head start…
My heart says TDK…but my gut says it’ll be Slumdog or Milk
***flipping coin*** ….. and the winner is Milk
I could see them going for TDK. They went for E.T. and for Star Wars, so they aren’t total snobs and can recognize genre greatness when it comes along.
Don’t know that I’m predicting that, but I don’t think it’s an outrageous prospect.
I am almost positive they will give the following prizes…
Best Picture
Slumdog Millionaire or Milk or maybe a sneak attack from Gran Torino
Best Actor
Sean Penn, Milk or Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Best Actress
Melissa Leo, Frozen River or Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk or Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona or Viola Davis, Doubt
Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire or David Fincher, Benjamin Button
OR MAYBE a sneak attack from Clint Eastwood, Grant Torino
Best Screenplay
Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire or Eric Roth, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button OR a sneak attack from Dustin Lance Black, Milk
Best Documentary Film
Man on Wire
Best Animated Film
Wall*E
Best Foreign Film
Best Cinematography
Benjamin Button or Australia
Best Music
Australia or Wall*E or a sneak attack from Benjamin Button
Best Production Design
The Duchess or Benjamin Button or Australia
New Generation Award
Jenny Lumet, Rachel Getting Married or Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
OK, Kel: I will complete my best picture-pick and add the other mayor candidates who might win at the LAFCs:
Best pic: Slumdog (or: Happy-Go-Lucky, Gomorra)
Actor: Frank Langella, “Frost/Nixon”
Actress: Melissa Leo, “Frozen River” (but I hope Sally Hawkins)
Supp. Actor: Heath
Supp. Actress: Viola Davis, “Doubt”
Best foreign language (cause this category is important, my fellow americans): Gomorra
I say Milk all the way but more formal predictions a bit later.
Best Picture – MILK
Best Director – GUS VAN SANT for MILK
Best Actor – FRANK LANGELLA in FROST/NIXON
BEst Actress – MERYL STREEP in DOUBT (yeah!)
Best Supporting Actor – HEATH LEDGER in THE DARK KNIGHT
Best Supporting Actress – VIOLA DAVIS in DOUBT
Best Screenplay – RACHEL GETTING MARRIED
Best Cinematography – MILK
Best Original Music Score – THOMAS NEWMAN for WALL-E/REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
Best Production Design – THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Best Foreign Language Film – THE SECRET OF THE GRAIN
Best Animated Feature Film – WALL-E/WALTZ WITH BASHIR (tie)
A Metacritic-sampling of the 50-member LAFCA (Claudia Puig, USA Today; David Ansen, Newsweek; Todd McCarthy, Variety; Joe Morgenstern, Wall Street Journal, NPR; Kenneth Turan, Los Angeles Times; Scott Foundas, LA Weekly, Variety; Richard Schickel, Time):
MILK
Puig 88
Ansen 80
McCarthy 80
Morgenstern 80
Turan 70
Foundas n/a
Schickel n/a
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
Morgenstern 100
Puig 100
Foundas 90
McCarthy 90
Turan 80
Schickel n/a
Ansen n/a
FROST/NIXON
Puig 100
Turan 90
Morgenstern 90
Ansen 80
McCarthy 70
Schickel n/a
Scott Foundas n/a
RACHEL GETTING MARRIED
Turan 90
Ansen 90
Morgenstern 80
Puig 75
Schickel 30
Foundas n/a
McCarthy n/a
THE DARK KNIGHT
Turan 100
Foundas 100
Puig 100
Ansen 70
Morgenstern 60
Schickel n/a
McCarthy n/a
FROZEN RIVER
Schickel 100
Turan 100
Morgenstern 90
Puig 88
McCarthy n/a
Ansen n/a
Foundas n/a
THE VISITOR
Puig 88
Morgenstern 70
Foundas 50
Turan n/a
Schickel n/a
Ansen n/a
McCarthy n/a
WALL-E
Morgenstern 100
Ansen 100
Turan 100
Puig 100
McCarthy 80
Foundas n/a
Schickel n/a
Too early: DEFIANCE (McCarthy not wild about it), GRAN TORINO (McCarthy liked it), REVOLUTIONARY ROAD (ditto), BENJAMIN BUTTON (ditto but found it a bit remote), THE READER (McCarthy respectful but reserved).
Could they go for Wall-E?
My guess is Milk or Revolutionary Road…
I’m thinking it’ll either be Slumdog Millionaire or they’ll decide to be super differant and say The Dark Knight. The upsetter to my theory: Milk.
From the metacritic sampling, Milk is the most consistent with scores between 70 and 88. Slumdog has a significantly higher skew from 80 – 100 and The Dark Knight has 3 100 scores but also a 60, making it all over the place. Wall-E has the highest overal average. but I don’t think they’ll be THAT differant.
From the above it seems the LAFCA consciously like to be a little differant. Hence the move for Blood in the light of everyone and their mother voting for No Country. That’s why I’m thinking The Dark Knight: people aren’t expecting it. PLUS! the LAFCA of all people of are going to honour Heath Ledger. If they don’t, it’ll be a serious problem for future awards. Milk is the obvious choice. Slumdog is the likely choice.
I have to say Winslet has won her before in support. It would be delicious to see The Reader or Revolutionary Road spring into the race…..
I would like to see Sally Hawkins carried a prize after the snub of BIFA
Nicely done Paul, I was thinking that was the best avenue for anticipating their likely winner too. I get the impression their taste tends towards more artistically ambitious rather than crowd pleasers. Despite the lack of metacritic ratings guidance I’m guessing Ben will be on the button.
I think Milk or Slumdog are the most obvious picks. But these are my NGNG picks for LAFCA:
Best Pic: Frozen River
Best Director: Darren Aronofsky (or Tom McCarthy)
Best Actor: Richard Jenkins
Best Actress: Galina Vishnevskaya (“Alexandra”)
They love giving Best Actress to a foreigner – Cottilard (2007), Mirren (2006), Staunton (2005) …
I go for Rachel Getting Married,
back ups: The Wrestler/ Milk/ The Dark Knight
LAFCA is gonna send a No Prop 8 message and put MILK all the way.
The city likes to absolve guilt publicly.
But when secret ballots are involved, it all “crashes” down put up Gran Torino, to absolve another kind of guilt.
I’m just being contentious there, but I have a feeling it’s gonna put up Frozen River as its best pic.
I’m quite sad to see that “In Bruges” has been thrown off the prediction train alltogether. Yes, it took home only one of the BIFA awards, but are people forgetting that it still had seven nominations? It still shared the most nominations with “Hunger”! And now just because they took home only one, and less than Hunger, it’s been given up? That’s quite sad. Seven nominations says something to me, and surely it doesn’t say “deserves to be forgotten when it doesn’t win everything it’s nominated for”. It was an a-class film in my opinion, definitely qualified to go up against Slumdog Millionaire and Happy-Go-Lucky. The screenplay also got the Writers Guild Award, not to mention it’s also nominated for the Satellite Awards.
Though I am not predicting In Bruges to win at LAFCA, I still think it’s worth the mention that it would also help In Bruges a lot in upcoming award events. Ralph Fiennes’ performance in it was highly amusing.
Milk would seem to be the most attractive choice of the moment. Absent that, Benjamin Button sounds like a choice the LAFCs might make.
If one considers Frost/Nixon, Milk, Benjamin Button and Slumdog as significant stylistic departures and/or passionate labors of love for their directors, here’s another film to add to that list: Defiance (I just returned from a screening) is Ed Zwick’s most compelling work for the big screen since his second feature, Glory. Defiance, which tells an unusual story of Jewish resistance during WWII, is supported by solid performances from his cast and strong production values. It’s a grim tale, but there’s enough Hollywood in the telling of it to satisfy many viewers (and probably disappoint others). I was surprised by my own personal reaction: I was so impressed by the film on an emotional level that I don’t think I will be able to pick it apart for at least a day or two. In fact, as far as emotional engagement goes, at this point I’d rank the biggies that I’ve seen in this order: Milk, Defiance, Benjamin Button, Slumdog, Doubt, The Dark Knight, Gran Torino (yes, I said it), Frost/Nixon, Revolutionary Road. Not that is necessarily a criteria for Best Picture, if you think about last year’s winner.
I don’t see Daniel Craig as a threat to any of the frontrunners (unfortunately), but the film is — don’t shoot me — a contender. One member of the SAG nominating commitee announced during the Q&A (cast and director received standing ovations) that he was choosing Defiance for Best Ensemble and he was met with approval.
i would like to see either Waltz With Bashir or The Reader taking the top prize in best pic from LAFC…also Ballast, Frozen River and Entre les Murs, receiving some recognition…
That’s interesting, Paul, about Defiance, which so far has been a bit under the radar (mine at least). You’ve reminded us to expect the unexpected — and to stay tuned for Gran Torino.
Pierre, I so want to hate Gran Torino, but I actually didn’t — just the awards love it’s getting.
I also just noticed that I left The Wrestler off my “emotional engagement” list. It would be in a tie with Benjamin Button.
Milk is a very good film with some great perfs.
I just don’t see how anyone can call it a best picture.
It should be nominated every chance it gets, but it’s just not a top prize pic. Penn, though…
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