The Dark Knight will be re-released into theaters on January 23, promptly following the Oscar nominations. And suddenly, Dark Knight Oscar articles appear to be cropping up here and there as the momentum builds. This AP story talks about the film suddenly being a “serious contender.” It’s an Oscar cliffhanger.
If the Best Picture locks appear to be Benjamin Button, Milk, Frost/Nixon and Slumdog, does that mean there is a fifth slot open and that a few films will be fighting for that spot? The Reader, Revolutionary Road and The Dark Knight? That’s only if you’re seeing the race this way right now. So many variables have yet to be factored in making it still too soon to make that call.









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“Dark Knight” has a better shot than “Frost/Nixon”. I hope both get in, but I think people have had enough of movies like F/N, whereas people REALLY want to nominate TDK
ya i hardly think frost/nixon is anywhere near a lock right now
I don’t think Frost/Nixon appears to be a lock.
See, publicity = Oscars.
Frost/Nixon does appear to be a lock right now;
My biggest hopes is that Benjamin delivers, though.. And I am for the first time supporting the Little Miss Sunshine slot in the 5, this year going for Slumdog
Benjamin Button, Milk, Slumdog Millionaire – Schlage deadbolt locks.
Frost/Nixon more of a bike chain lock. We could come outside Oscar nom morning and find Langella still chained to the rack by his spokes and the rest of the Schwinn gone.
Sasha, remember when DREAMGIRLS was a lock? You know, the lockiest of the locks?
It got SHIT.
But if we are to assume locks for 2008, I say SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE (obligatory indie-hit that never wins) and MILK (socio-political topical drama that might have a shot).
The other 3 slots are wide-open as far as I’m concerned. The movies left out will leave one ugly fucking scene this side of the Interstate highway up near Christmas when the roads are frozen, snow flurries are rampant, and some folks either can’t drive worth a shit, or drank a little too much holiday spirit.
“Slumdog Millionaire” is the lead runner here.
“Milk”, due to great reviews, is pretty much in too. We’ll have to wait and see more on “Benjamin Button”. The fact David Fincher won the NBR doesn’t mean anything – last year it was awarded to Tim Burton for Sweeney Todd.
I think “Frost/Nixon” has a great chance for the nomination, and “The Dark Knight” has 50/50 chances right now. Nolan is a lock though for directing.
Other films that could get in: “Doubt”, “Revolutionary Road”, “The Reader”, “The Wrestler”
Frost/Nixon isn’t locked at all. It’s not going to make the cash that GNGL did, the year is stronger and we already have one politically-driven nominee that is in much stronger shape.
“…remember when DREAMGIRLS was a lock? You know, the lockiest of the locks? It got SHIT.”
I know what you’re saying RRA, but don’t forget Dreamgirls got 8 Oscar nominations — more than any other film that year — and won two. Not exactly “shit”
If somebody held a gun to my head and told me I had to watch Dreamgirls or Little Miss Sunshine again, choose one or die, then I’d be reaching for the Bill Condon DVD faster than you could say “let’s defile grandpa’s corpse for a cheap slapstick sight gag.”
I concur Ryan. Although, I never liked Sunshine anyway… too mean spirited.
Dreamgirls was rare, I actually liked a musical.
In context; If I had the choice of Musical or an Action film, I’ll choose action, even if it is Tango and Cash (stupidity is fun to watch and make fun of).
Of course it wouldn’t come close to the actual amount of tickets sold, but wouldn’t it be grand if all those fan boys saw it one more time in theaters and knocked Titanic off the top? Don’t see it happening, but hey, I can dream…
Common all you teenagers with your parents’ money! go make yourselves useful!
Well, I’ll be seeing it again. So go ahead and add $8.50 to the gross right now.
Ryan Adams – Remember when the Atlanta Braves won some 11 consecutive NL East baseball division titles?
And how many World Series trophies they holstered in those 11 years?
Only once!
Fact is Ryan, sure DREAMGIRLS got 8 nods but the highest I believe it received was for Supporting Actress and Actor, and unless I’m mistaken THREE of those 8 came from the Best Original Song category.
All I’m saying is, it was the front-runner for 2006 and then on the big day, it scored NEITHER a Best Picture or Director nomination.
So in otherwords, DREAMGIRLS was the Atlanta Braves of the Oscars that year: Could pimp of how much sub-categorical success it had, but can’t exactly say much about what REALLY counted.
The problem with your analogy RRA is that everybody was basing their opinion of the Atlanta Braves on actual performance they’d witnessed with their own eyes in 11 previous games. Their expectations had the solid foundation of tangible experience.
Dreamgirls status was based on pure conjecture for months and months — until people finally saw it, and quickly adjusted their expectations downward.
For your analogy to work, fan enthusiasm for the Atlanta Braves would require that nobody ever saw them play as a team before — knowing only the individual players had great reputations. But on the day of the playoffs. the fans are stunned to see the Braves enter the dugout wearing a variety of fabulous gowns. Still pretty to look at, maybe, but hopes for a playoff win would instantly drop. (As did the hopes of Dreamgirls audiences, after about 30 minutes into the movie.)
Anyway, what deviants were you hanging around with who thought Dreamgirls was gonna win? Everybody I know thought The Departed was a sure thing from the day it opened.
But to answer your question: “Remember when the Atlanta Braves won some 11 consecutive NL East baseball division titles?”
Remember?! How could I ever forget! In other words: No.
Alright Ryan, but you do remember how everyone had at least notched it on their BP prediction charts, and hell I think the Poland regime at MCN did as well at the time of the nomination announcements.
Again, I still think SLUMDOG and MILK are the only true locks at this rate…
“Think” being the magic word.
All kidding aside, I genuinely don’t remember anything about BP production charts, because I never knew about any of these sites until I came hunting for like-minded fans of The Departed in January 2007. I never heard of Dave Poland or Tom O’Neil until a few weeks after the ‘07 Oscars. I might be able to forget them if people would stop bringing their names up.
I will take issue with the idea that 8 nominations are meaningless if they’re not topped off by a BP nod. I enjoyed Dreamgirls for all the many things it was nominated for. And as for 3 nominations for Best Song — hey, maybe I’m nuts, but that’s what I want from a musical. It’s as important and impressive for a musical as 3 supporting actor nominations would be for Milk.
I predicted “Dreamgirls” as a certain Best Picture nominee, and then I saw it and I STILL predicted it as a certain Best Picture nominee. It certainly had all it took to be one, but it was just a case of unpredictability that year. Didn’t expect it to get shut out like that.
Sigh, The Braves…As a life-long Atlanta boy, I hope one day they become a winning team again.
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