The world has changed since the US elected its first African-American president. The news that White America could and did elect the right person for the job has renewed our faith in the institution, and perhaps made us feel more hopeful, even as the economy collapses around us while the holiday season looms; we are full of hope and our country feels right again.
We knew going in that the election would change things. Perhaps our election coverage was dressed up in the disguise of how it might influence the Oscar race but no matter how we got here, here we are. Things have changed. The mood has lifted. There is no time for themes that remember the dark ages, unless, of course, they’re about super heroes tugging the country out of them.
It is into this newfound hope that the films with the most beautiful messages, the most hopeful ones, are emerging strong in the Oscar race. Wall-E and Slumdog Millionaire. This is why, probably, that the more painful, bleak films about the human condition are being ignored. This doesn’t really have to do with the quality of film but the time into which they emerge; in years to come, if the mood ever swings back, the films will enjoy renewed appreciation. A film like Revolutionary Road doesn’t seem to have a place in the post-Obama world. It’s being locked away in a padded room somewhere so that the celebration of life can continue.
The Oscar race for Best Picture does not reflect the year’s best films, it never has. It reflects the current mood of the country and of the voters. Sometimes we get lucky, though, and there is alignment. Under Bush, films like The Departed and No Country for Old Men could triumph over feelgood fare like Little Miss Sunshine or Juno; just like the Nixon era gave rise to Oscar’s best decade for Best Picture wins. Unfortunately, the same can’t be said for the Reagan era but that’s because, despite it all, Americans were supposedly happy. When the Republicans AND the Democrats are disgruntled, it has produced some great results in the Oscar race.
This year, though, there is a palpable shift in the mood and in the films that are in the race. For the first time ever, an animated film stands a really good chance of WINNING Best Picture, without merely winning in its designated category – a move that would say, this WAS 2008’s best film. Period.
But then there are those pesky actors. The actors make up the largest branch in the Academy and they are the ones who are likely to not vote for Wall-E. In a year when SAG is considering going on a strike are they really going to vote for a film that says they aren’t a requirement to make a movie good? In fact, isn’t Wall-E voiced by mostly unknown character actors?
Judging by the way the critics are voting, before the guilds get a crack at it, Slumdog Millionaire is winning more than Wall-E and stands the best chance of winning Best Picture. In any other year it would simply be too “happy” to win. The ending is just too simplistic and fairy-tale-like to ever appeal to the mostly serious Academy voters, and there’s that Bollywood thing. But this year? Slumdog could take it all.
The film is also a tribute to international cinema, just as Obama appeals to an international population. We aren’t closed in anymore; we can be global. Perhaps our Oscar race can be too.
This is somewhat difficult for me because the films that moved me most, those that have had a lasting effect, aren’t “winning everything.” That happens, of course, more often than not. In fact, most of the time, except the past two years, I haven’t really felt strongly about the frontrunners. For me, Benjamin Button is maybe the best film I’ve seen this year, though critics aren’t going anywhere near it. Maybe because it’s hard to put that film up next to Slumdog or Wall-E and see anyone voting for it, not the way the country is feeling right now, not the way the world is feeling. I wouldn’t begrudge either film the win. They are both magnificent. It’s just that Button was a more complex experience for me personally.
Funnily enough, Wall-E and Slumdog aren’t really that different when you think about it: scrappers who live off of other people’s trash overcome their station, pursue the girl of their dreams and everyone lives happily ever after. These themes are universal and as old as the sun. With these two movies, though, it isn’t necessarily about what happens so much as how it happens.
Either film could break the “it could never happen” rule, just as Obama broke it this year. Anything can happen.
But then there are those pesky actors. With no known actors in Slumdog or Wall-E what does that say about the high salaries actors require to work? That they are inflated and unnecessary? If these films are the best the year has to offer is something deeply broken in Hollywood?
If actors want to stand up and be noticed they may be inclined to vote for movies with stars in them, maybe Milk, maybe Benjamin Button, maybe Doubt, maybe Frost/Nixon. It’s too soon to know how they will vote, or whether they care about their bread and butter or not. Voters do not vote with their heads but with their hearts. And if you’re heart is involved, how can anyone not vote for either Wall-E or Slumdog? Look at what they’ve done to the usually stodgy critics. They’ve turned them into puddles of liquid love.
This is also why, probably, Sally Hawkins is winning the acclaim that otherwise might be going to Melissa Leo – whose performance in Frozen River IS depressing but it is also as life-affirming as Hawkins’. But it’s about the downtrodden with aspirations of a double-wide trailer. Likewise Mickey Rourke versus Sean Penn. Both characters are backed into a corner but one does so for the good of the country, the other is trying to find a reason to believe. Penn’s hopefulness could trump Rourke’s despair in a climate of change, in a climate of hope.
It is a mistake for anyone to assume the Oscar race is over, though, because the critics say it is. This is the first phase. The trends are set. There are many more stories to be told before it’s all said and done. It is a wide open race from my perspective, which is always exciting. Still, voters will be receiving their ballots in just over a week from now. The season has gone into heat. What’s coming next? That’s the million dollar question. So who wants to be a millionaire?
No Response for "The State of the Race: The Audacity of Hope"
I just want to say something. Great post. Thank you.
really, if slumdog wins, this will be the greatest disappointment ever in such a year of great movies…
love wall.e though even I don’t consider it as good as a best picture winner should be…
put the dark knight back in!!!
Rather astute observation there Sash.
Very, very, very well written article. This is the kind of insight places like E! and Entertainment Weekly need.
I haven’t seen Slumdog yet, but even though i agree Wall-E is a good movie, it would be ridiculous to award it Best Picture in a race where there are so many other great films offering so much more.
Don’t underestimate the Batman… or Milk for that matter. Both, though dark and tragic, were ultimately uplifting movies and neither fell to cookie-cutter story-telling like Wall-e or Slumdog did in their final act. It aint over ’til the fatlady sings (which was the ironic case for Harvey Milk’s life).
Probably the best State Of The Race piece yet!
[...] about “Wall-E”, breaking all the rules? Maybe .. check out this bit of synthetic thinking from Sasha Stone: “Funnily enough, Wall-E and Slumdog aren’t really that different when you [...]
It would truly be an insane disaster on the Academy’s part if they fail to nominate Wall-E now. Wall-e’s greatest acheievement is that it is winning awards and nominations with virtually no campaigning. Its purely winning because of how good it is. Rev Road has been campaigning like crazy with most disappointing results. All other films are pushing really hard.
And Wall-E is consistently making almost every top 10 almost always close to #1 and actually being #1 in many cases. I’m beginning to think that at the end of the year, when we finally add up all the lists and tally up, Wall-E would be declared best film of the year.
Very good article. I agreed with you, but I really hope that Dark Knigth stay out of the race. If it is choosen, it’s just because it was a very lucrative movie, and Hollywood is an industry. That is all…
Slumdog should be the winner, because Obama always was the slumdog in the race as we all know. So, it’s just the perfect choose of 2008.
And the actors: please give the Award to Clint and Meryl… They represent the best of this industry and should be remembered.
come on bernardo, how can you underestimate the great movie that the dark knight is???
Michele it can be a great movie, but one of the top five? I don’t think so… But if is nom, it’s just because it was one of the most lucrative of all time, and the Academy likes to remembered that kind of movies. Like the “Lords of the Rings”… At’s all
The thing is if Wall-E goes in, who goes out?
My 2 cents if it is in:
Wall-E
Slumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
But things are early at the moment. And, as I observed in another post on another topic, remember when Far from Heaven and Julianne Moore took the critics by storm, only for the film to be snubbed from both BP and BD, and for Moore to lose out to Kidman?
WALL-E can get in. It ought to get in, it’s damn well good enough. But, Sasha, I don’t think it’s just the actors who won’t vote for it. It’s voters in a whole host of categories, in the belief that it, as an animated film, is not representative of the majority of good filmmaking in Hollywood. Glum, yes, but true? Unfortunately, I think so.
For me, WALL-E remains out. My 5 remains unchanged:
Benjamin Button
TDK
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog
We’ll just have to wait and see, of course. But, imo, if one thing is certian, it’s that the Globes, this year, were wayyyyyyyyyy out…
I’ve only touched my feet into the water here at AD, reading whenever I remembered to click over. But this was a great piece, Sasha, and very worthy of putting this site onto my bookmarks. Thanks for the article, and now I can promise to read the rest of what you have to offer this season (and beyond).
This is your best “State of the Race” column of the year so far, Sasha, and your observation about those pesky actors is true. I’ve been predicting that WALL-E will lose steam when it gets no mention from SAG or DGA (allowing star-studded Oscar bait to gain momentum).
But it’s worth pointing out what you said in a previous “State of the Race” column, that this is the year of the grand showcase performance. With such a wealth of strong contenders for the two lead acting trophies and a handful of brilliant supporting turns this year, shouldn’t it be apparant to the actors that there is nothing deeply broken in Hollywood? That they will always “rule the roost” so to speak? The highest grossing movie of the year (and the second highest all time) was actor driven and featured a strong, high-profile cast, after all. Could those pesky actors not be content to affirm their necessity to the industry by nominating 10+ outstanding performances?
The Academy is getting younger by the year, and I have faith in those pesky actors to vote for the movie they honestly thought was the best. WALL-E’s nomination is still somewhat of a longshot, and it hasn’t got a snowball’s chance in hell of winning, but if it doesn’t get in, maybe the actors are not to blame. Maybe AMPAS isn’t quite young enough yet.
Voters vote with their hearts, not their heads?
So, last year they really opened their heart to “No country for old men”..?
I think this is too simplified. There are a couple of things, emotions, but also careful thoughts that come together, when the voting goes on.
I would not overestimate the influence of Obamas victory towards the result of the academy voting…
I don’t think is merely about money, as it wasn’t for LOTR…the fact is that these two products combined giant sized box office and real quality, real Cinema in its real meaning.
for me is frost/nixon to be considered out
Benjamin button
milk
dark knight
slumdog (sigh)
wall.e or revolutionary road
This was a very fresh take on Oscar season. It’s a psychological association that I personally feel I can’t properly assess because I’m on the inside looking out (we all are; who hasn’t been obsessed with this year’s election?)
All I can say is that it’s really unfortunate that we live in a world which considers two people in love ultimately being together a fairy-tale ending. Maybe, I’m just a hippie. I thought Slumdog had brilliant writing, directing, and cinematography. Ben Button and Rev Road were great, but they didn’t resonate with me. They felt like more of the same. Luckily, film is subjective. We can’t all I agree. I still feel like Rourke will take best actor.
so this explains how Marisa Tomei won back in 93 for Cousin Vinny
I’m sure it happens, but is it often that a Best Picture snub gets MORE total nominations than one of the best picture nominees? I know that it happened with Dreamgirls, but I’m too lazy to check if it happens every year or every other year or almost never.
Of the six main contenders (I think it’s down to Button, TDK, Milk, Slumdog, Wall-E, and Frost/Nixon), I think these are the likely nominations for each aside from Best Picture.
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (10) – Director, Actress (Blanchett), Original Screenplay, Art Direction, Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup, Original Score, Visual Effects
The Dark Knight (8) – Director, Supporting Actor (Ledger), Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Sound Editing, Visual Effects, Sound Mixing
Milk (6) – Director, Actor (Penn), 2 Supporting Actor (Brolin, Franco), Original Screenplay, Film Editing
WALL-E (6) – Animated Film, Original Screenplay, Original Score, Original Song, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing
Slumdog Millionaire (5) – Director, Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actor (Dev Patel), Film Editing, Original Score
Frost/Nixon (4) – Director, Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing
“What does that say about the high salaries actors require to work? That they are inflated and unnecessary? If these films are the best the year has to offer is something deeply broken in Hollywood?”
High salaries for actors is obscene.
Yes, they are inflated and unnecessary. Did people REALLY pay Cameron Diaz $20 million for Charlie’s Angels 2? REALLY?
And of course Hollywood is broken. It’s also a parasite and has latched onto independent films and made them as obvious and cliched as big-budget blockbusters.
Very good article. What it is saying is that we all have our favorites. Maybe there is no “one best picture”. More than one of these movies is deserving. Personally, the only movie capable of standing the test of time, across generations, would be Wall-E. Wall-E and Eve simply spoke each others names, with inflection, which allowed each individual in the audience to fill in their own dialogue and”feel” their own unique experience. The greatest salespeople are those that do not stand there and tell you about all the great things someone or something can do, they are the ones who merely ask you one question, “So, tell me what you think?”, and then go silent. Think about it, how much better do you enjoy a conversation with someone when they stop to ask your opinion, instead of talking over you and your thoughts? Wall-E is a movie you can insert yourself into like no other movie I can remember. That is the brilliance of this film. Most movies are made by directors with a “for me” attitude, I’ll win big with this. Wall-E was made “for you”. A stand-alone never to be duplicated. Oscar.
Slumdog Millionaire
Milk
TDK
The Wrestler
Wall-E
Winner: Wall-E
i can’t see wall-e snubbed at this point. frost/nixon still has an edge but it’s simply nowhere to be seen, it’s getting replaced everywhere by wall-e. i still have my doubts about the academy nominating both the dark knight and wall-e, but each day that passes it seems more and more likely. my final predictions: benjamin button, the dark knight, milk, slumdog millionaire and wall-e
Art carried on by politics is a sign of complete weakness. It may be nice, or even necessary, to look at films by Wall-E in times like these troubling yet hopeful times, but we would be deluding ourselves if we convinced ourselves that the time period made it a better movie. “Necessity” has nothing to do with how aesthetically pleasing a film is, and for any awards to go to films like Wall-E places politics above art, a hateful sham for those that claim to celebrate art.
If The Dark Knight, Slumdog Millionaire, and WALL*E all get Best Picture nominations I will Jizz in my pants! These are my 3 favorite films of the year so far. I have yet to see most of the December releases.
Saw Frost/Nixon this weekend. Thought it was a decent film. Nothing really groundbreaking about it. It felt really…safe…wasn’t contraversial…wasn’t asking me to think…it just was and that’s why I think Frost/Nixon is a lock for Best Picture. The old geezers are, I’m sure, jizzing their pants over this one.
@Jason
I would add Best Cinematography and Best Song “Jaiho” to the slumdog list of possible nominations.
Very, very good analysis Sasha, really enjoyed your aricle. We definitely can talk about an “Obama effect” at the Oscars.
Still hoping Benjamin Button and The Dark Knight will get some love though.
Sasha, you have a great website and your insights are always great but it is very unprofessional to bring your political views into the arguement for best picture.
Most of the “pesky actors” in SAG doing the nominating and the final voting for the Screen Actors Guild Award are not overpaid stars but in fact the “mostly unknown character actors” Sasha mentions in her piece. And they usually get pissed off when they receive a ballot that lists only the names of the most well-known performers under Best Ensemble Cast.
Although it is unlikely that Wall-E will get any love at the SAG Awards — that’s built into the nature of the categories — a Best Ensemble Cast nod is not entirely impossible.
I would pick these five to be the nominees:
Rachel Getting Married
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
I’ve Loved You So Long
Synecdoche, New York
But the Nominating Committee will probably come up with a selection from the following:
Cadillac Records/Mamma Mia!
Changeling/Revolutionary Road
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Rachel Getting Married
I’m already rethinking the musicals in favor of the comedies, like W and Tropic Thunder.
I keep remembering that in the last 50 years, only three films have won Best Picture *without* a single acting nomination – The Last Emperor, Braveheart and LOTR: ROTK (arguably the latter is with an asterisk, you could make the case that Ian McKellen had been nominated for the 12-hour film). Those three films were very clearly understood as epics – as the only real epics in their respective races, clear winners of categories like Cinematography, Costume Design, Makeup – you know, rewarding your basic pull-out-all-the-stops Cecil B. Demille done right thing. Wall-E and Slumdog Millionaire, for all their merits, do *not* have that epic-Demille air about them, and so I agree Sasha, if either somehow wins BP, it almost couldn’t help but signify a shift to a less actor-bound cinema — exemplified both by foreign films (since Italian neo-realism, really) and Pixar’s business plan of hiring the best voice for the job, which is so clearly opposed to every other studio’s star-driven animation.
And I *do* see that shift aligning with the Obama era, not for your reasons, but because Obama has so clearly prioritized results over narcissism and nepotism, giving high-level appointments to so many who gave nothing to Obama’s campaign. As in the height of the financial crisis (mid-Sept), so it is now: Obama shows us it’s not about getting the credit, but the quality of the work (no doubt every cabinet member has had this explained to them in scrupulous detail).
But perhaps we should just see this moment — when it seemed that Wall-E or Slumdog *could* win — as signifying the era enough, because I also agree with you that the actors, as the most powerful branch of the academy, will bring us back to their most-favored kind of cinema (perhaps similar to the way some prima donnas will do amongst the Obama team, perhaps even before Academy voting closes?). Hey if the actors wind up coronating Milk as BP (as unlikely as that is), perhaps they can, in at least one sense, even be ahead of Obama. But I’d be bracing myself to see this race end the way all good film scenes do – with a nice Button.
Great analysis Sasha.
“WALL*E” is innovative, “Slumdog” globalized. I like it.
We can speculate all we want, but is Hollywood buzzing about “WALL*E?” I’m assuming some people who post on here are insiders.
Everyone knows that Hollywood is ‘liberal’ per say, but most of time, with Oscar nominations, they play it safe. “The Dark Knight” and “WALL*E” would be watershed Best Picture nominations on the fact that a Batman movie and a Pixar film got nominated.
Wait and see.
Wall-E winning Best Picture? It seems like what dreams are made of. sSeriously though I think its time to consider that unless Button gets some serious love soon, it could be the one to slip. The early fruntrunner has fallen before. Let us not forget Dreamgirls. A wildcard (this year being Wall-E, that year being Letters From Iwo Jima) enters the race with loads of accolades and edges out the presumed frontrunner. I have yet to see Benjamin Button and cannot IMAGINE it not being better than Dreamgirls, but it is very possible that this will happen. Any way you look at it, I really do believe we have our list down to five out of
Slumdog (lock)
Milk (lock)
The Dark Knight
Wall-E
Frost/Nixon
Benjamin Button
spoilers : Revolutionary Road, The Wrestler, Gran Torino (though unlikely)
I just don’t see ANYTHING else even coming close to a BP nom anymore
Sasha, thanks for these articles; they make movies, and the Oscar race, sound more important and meaningful than they probably really are.
That may sound like an insult, or at best a backhanded compliment. But it really isn’t; it’s articles like these that make me feel like I have an “insider” view in the whole thing, while I’m surrounded by friends and family who couldn’t care any less about movies, and who view films not as art but as commercial entertainment with no personal value. So I come here and remember why movies are made in the first place – as an artistic representation of our emotional, even political or spiritual, states of mind.
Paul Outlaw, are you saying that Wall-E is actually eligible for Best Ensemble at the SAG?
Brian, that was a fabulous description of what Wall-E is and the effect it has had on people, especially me.
Honestly, being an Indian, I have seen “WAY BETTER” indian movies. Slumdog is just a decent entertainer. It is not a great movie. I cannot understand the hype surrounding this movie. I do agree WALL-E is fantastic, I saw it twice in two days in theaters (Just like No Country for Old Men) and I hope it gets a lot of accolades.
Don´t count on Revolutionary Road.
Think at last years Atonement.
I still believe there isn’t room for BOTH ‘TDK’ and ‘Wall-E’. But we’ll see.
Inasmuch as 46 % of voters do not agree that we did elect the
“right” person, it is questionable whether there is any particular prevailing “mood of the country” that affects the Academy Awards. Polls also show that national “hope” is not very high right now.
Milk & The Dark Knight > Slumdog Millionaire & Wall-E
That is all.
red_wine, Wall-E (featuring “unknown character actors” Ben Burtt, Jeff Garlin, Kathy Najimy, John Ratzenberger, Sigourney Weaver and Fred Willard) is definitely eligible for Best Ensemble Cast. So is Milk, which for some reason I have left off a list for the second time recently. I should talk to someone about that.
My picks (revised):
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
I’ve Loved You So Long
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
SAG Nom. Comm.’s picks predix (revised):
Cadillac Records/Tropic Thunder/Revolutionary Road
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Wow, I was not aware that voice acting is eligible, but then again they are considering Brad Pitt eligible for Button. Though I’m sure Wall-E wont make an Ensemble nod at SAG because even voice acting is at a bare minimum due to the silent nature of the film, I’m thinking Ratatouille would have made a very cool Ensemble nomination.
wall-e and doubt are picking up steam. I think at this point frost/nixon is going to fall out of the mix, having seen it, it’s just mediocre. IMO Milk was too but has less chance of beings nubbed after GG. and will they really nominate benj button? I’m not sure i believe a fincher film will be nominated… willing to eat my words of course
right now it feels like the top five are, wall-e, doubt, dark knight, milk, slumdog — it’s like politics, they have to nominate dark knight / milk or they’ll face major backlash
slumdog millionaire winning best picture is the equivalent to Driving Miss Daisy winning in ‘90. Both films are trite, unrealistic and badly acted. The best films of the year in my opinion are Milk, Rachel Getting Married and the painfully underrated Synecdoche.
@ Ricky: Hooray! Someone else who thinks BB isn’t as safe as it seems. I feel less crazy now.
Benjamin Button has consistently appeared on lists like the NBR, BFCA, AFI etc., but we need to remember that those are lists of ten. That means Benji, though well-liked and admired, may not be the number 1 (or 2, or 3) favorite for a lot of people.
We can get a sense of which films are big favorites by looking at the top ten lists and the awards that skip the nomination stage and go straight to the winners. Those films are Slumdog and Wall-E, first of all. Then, The Dark Knight, Milk, and Happy-Go-Lucky (though I don’t think H-G-L will end up getting a BP nod).
When we look back on this season, I think we’ll see the Globe nominations as a moment of misdirection; the moment when we started to doubt Milk, TDK and Wall-E, and renewed our expectations for Doubt, Rev. Road, and The Reader. The guilds will set us straight again.
No, David B., I think Sasha’s probably right about this. And many of the polls I’ve seen show that Obama has a significantly higher approval rating right now than Bush or Clinton did pre-inauguration. Some of the polls you have seen may be skewed because we are at the same time sure the short-term future is going to get worse and hopeful the long-term future is now on the right track, if we can just hang in there a little longer. People have to be hopeful about something–anything–now, because it’s too damned scary and bleak out there not to be. The Oscars want balance. If we were in rosy economic times and weren’t reading multiple headlines about record layoffs each week, if we weren’t at war with anyone and only had to worry about a few of the old-standby trouble spots, if we felt a collective trust in and competence for our government, then I agree with Sasha that some of these more despairing or at least un-fun pictures would be breaking through more than they are so far.
I keep thinking about The Dark Knight (yes, I know everyone is). But really, it’s such an anomaly. It’s a dark tragedy, but also a lot of fun and one that ends with an implied promise that in the next act, all will be set aright. It has government corruption and abuse of power, but it has a self-made superhero that can fight not only the bad guys, but the bleakness itself and rise above the harshest injustice yet to be the hero we need. It pits a vigilante against an anarchist, two people who have their own trust issues with law and order. It’s a special-effects heavy blockbuster that puts Oscar-caliber actors with serious acting pedigree throughout all the key roles. I would think that actors in particular would be eager to vote for this one, a film that shows they don’t necessarily have to compromise between doing the best work of their careers and making Kodak Theaters-full of money. It, like WALL-E, is an utterly atypical Best Picture hopeful that makes you think that maybe, just maybe, anything is possible in this year’s Oscar race, and that perhaps yes they can.
No, I think Sasha’s right on target here. Great State of the Race analysis, as usual.
I have seen no movie better than Rachel Getting Married this year with only a couple more to see (RR, CCBB, Reader)….but if I added four more to the list it would be:
Rachel Getting Married
Synecdoche, New York
Milk
Vicky Christina Barcelona
Frost/Nixon
It doesn’t get stated enough now (though it has been here), but great, great post, Sasha. I wish you were covering this type of thing instead of the people at E! and wherever. They’re so out of touch. They thought Depp or Mortenson might win last year becasue they’re popular. Any dipshit knew as soon as Day-Lewis peaked his head in the teaser, it was over.
I think you’re article is right on the money in terms of mood. I think the Obama presidency is going to affect who’s in and, ultimately, who wins. And with that, for better or worse, and I know it’s far from over and everything, but SLUMDOG is going to maintain that frontrunner status for a while.
I do think WALL-E is definitely good enough to be nominated, but I don’t know about winning. I wouldn’t mind if it did, though. Just put TDK in the mix, including a SAG nom, and I will be pretty happy.
I talked about this year being so weak compared to the last 2 years, and while I still don’t think it’s the best year for the movies of the decade, it is pretty exciting. I honestly feel like a lot of races are wide open this year that would have been sealed by now. All of them are essentially, but I have ZERO clue where Foreign Film stands. Maybe Gomorra is a lock, but it seems the Academy likes to throw away the locks as soon as possible.
Thanks for your thoughts Sasha.
I watched the screener of Milk yesterday, and while Penn was absolutely fantastic, I found the movie as a whole pretty run of the mill. I was expecting something a lot more. I guess that’s the major pitfall of being an Oscar contender though. There’s always gonna be people who will go, “Huh? That’s it?”
For David B:
Slightly off topic, but I’m not sure where you found your facts. Each poll I’ve shown states people, by a wide majority, feel good about Obama. The man hasn’t even taken office yet. And even when he does, he will have to do a lot of things wrong to come within spitting distance of President Shoe-ducker.
And yeah, people are laid off every day. Hope is very low. Bush is still in office.
“There’s no going back. You’ve changed things…forever.”
Brian, I fail to see what’s unprofessional about bringing the possible effects of the pesidential election into the conversation about the awards race – given the sea change in U.S. and global politics, and especially given the deep effects on people’s emotions. This is not a partisan issue.
Movies, among other things, have been about and have been affected by politics. And there ’s not necessarily a Maginot (sp?) Line between great stories about people and stories with politics, e.g,. To Kill a Mocking Bird, Grapes of Wrath. Movies have made history and affected politics – The Grand Illusion, Battle of Algiers, Z, State of Siege, Hearts and Minds, Fahrenheit 9/11, Harlan County U.S.A.
I don’t divide my heart from my mind from my body. I don’t put my complicated politics in one box in one part of me, and my quirky, diverse movie tastes in another box in another part of me, and so on. They’re all in there inside me together, and it’s up to me to make sense out of them.
I don’t buy the argument that the election of Obama means the Academy will lean towards more hopeful fare; it seems like an oversimplification of the highest degree. Obama’s election was one occurance in a world full of occurances. Don’t forget that since Obama’s election, we have still had to deal with the worst economic crisis of the last 70 years and the awful terrorist attacks in India. Not to mention that the election of Obama has little to no effect on the personal lives of Academy voters during the time in which they will be voting (whereas something like the struggling economy often does). I think Joe or Jane AMPAS’ voting mood is going to be much more influenced over things that have an immediate impact on them (family situations, how their career is going, their health) than what is going on in Washington.
SouthEastern Film Critics Association Awards
BEST PICTURE (En orden)
1. Milk
2. Slumdog Millionaire
3. WALL-E
4. The Dark Knight
5. The Wrestler
6. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
7. The Reader
8. The Visitor
9. Frost/Nixon
10. Revolutionary Road
(I just got blind reading the THE Dark THE Wres THE Curios THE THE THE THE)
BEST ACTOR: Sean Penn “Milk”
Runner-up: Mickey Rourke “The Wrestler”
BEST ACTRESS: Anne Hathaway “Rachel Getting Married”
Runner-up: Kate Winslet “The Reader”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Heath Ledger “The Dark Knight”
Runner-up: Robert Downey, Jr. “Tropic Thunder”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Penelope Cruz “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
Runner-up: Viola Davis “Doubt”
BEST DIRECTOR: Danny Boyle “Slumdog Millionaire”
Runner-up: Gus Van Sant “Milk”
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Dustin Lance Black “Milk”
Runner-up: Robert D. Siegel “The Wrestler”
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Simon Beaufoy “Slumdog Millionaire”
Runner-up: Eric Roth and Robin Swicord “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: “Let the Right One In” (Sweden)
Runner-up: “I’ve Loved You So Long” (France)
DOCUMENTARY: “Man on Wire”
Runner-up: “Young@Heart”
ANIMATED FEATURE: “WALL-E”
Runner-up: “Kung Fu Panda”
I wish Happy-Go-Lucky got stronger.
“I think Joe or Jane AMPAS’ voting mood is going to be much more influenced over things. . .”
-Let’s just use Jane AMPAS. I’m so tired of the name Joe after this election.
Sir Repetitious, I totally agree with you: Why is a movie with a happy ending involving two lovers ending up together automatically not as good as depressing movies where love ends in tragedy? And what’s with the notion that depressing movies period are better and to-be-taken-more-seriously than uplifting, happy ending movies??
Sasha, I think you make a good point that now that Hollywood’s favored presidential candidate has been elected, they will be in a generally happier mood (although let’s not forget that depressing movies like “The English Patient” and “American Beauty” won during the Clinton years).
Still, I do not at all agree with your implication that happy-ending movies like Wall-E and Slumdog Millionaire automatically aren’t as good as depressing movies like Revolutionary Road and No Country For Old Men simply because they are too happy. Plenty of “happy” movies are far better than the more prestigious depressing movies. For instance, I would argue that 2004’s The Incredibles is a far, far better film than Million Dollar Baby, which won the Oscar that year.
Also, everyone loves to paint Wall-E as a happy love-story animated film that can’t be taken seriously, but let’s not forget that it is actually a very biting satire of our lazy, crass, consumer-driven, wasteful culture. One of the main reasons why critics love it so much.
Finally, if the argument you make is true, than you can not keep counting out The Dark Knight – it has stars in it, it’s both uplifting and depressing, and has many complex social themes. Also, it’s on many Top 10 Lists, and is hugely popular in America. The same was true for Titanic and LOTR, and they all got nominated (and won) Best Pic. I’m betting the same will happen for Dark Knight.
It’s a wonderful post, but I just don’t buy it. The country’s in a lighter mood so it likes lighter movies? On the contrary, “The Dark Knight” is still the 2008 movie that’s on everyone’s mind. This year has been about the Joker. “Wall-E” is peripheral in comparison.
I am surprised that so much hype is made on this post about “Wall-E”; I loved it as I do every Pixar, but it’s not Best Picture caliber. After the first 45 minutes, it gets pretty weak (saving the space dance interlude). The very end is nice too. I think people like the idea of Wall-E being nominated more than the movie itself. I think it’s a sign of a poor year. No offense to Wall-E.
In fact, it feels like a weak Oscar year. I was looking forward to “Benjamin Button” to do it for me, but apparently I shouldn’t expect it as a #1-er.
I don’t know if politics necessarily matters. That dark movies win during dark times and optimistic movies win during optimistic times. Let’s take a look back at the seminal moments of recent American history
1999 – right after Clinton’s impeachment: Shakespeare in Love
2001 – Bush takes office after the most bizarre election ever: Gladiator
2002 – after 9/11: A Beautiful Mind.
2003 – during the entire drumbeat to the invasion of Iraq: Chicago (although Bowling for Columbine did win Best Documentary)
2007 (post-Katrina): The Departed
And in 2005, the Academy could have taken the most blatant FU to Bush by giving Fahrenheit 9/11 Best Documentary, and it didn’t even get nominated.
To Jason:
“And in 2005, the Academy could have taken the most blatant FU to Bush by giving Fahrenheit 9/11 Best Documentary, and it didn’t even get nominated.”
Fahrenheit 9/11 wasn’t eligible, Michael Moore wanted to show it on TV before the election and so he disqualified himself by doing so. If eligible, most probably would have won the oscar.
1999 – right after Clinton’s impeachment: Shakespeare in Love
Did anyone take the impeachment seriously? Wasn’t it a comical farce about the behind-the-scenes staging of a doomed romance? In the end, Much Ado About Nothing?
2001 – Bush takes office after the most bizarre election ever: Gladiator
Evil Emperor destroys father’s shady legacy, and then destroys valiant hero, decadence disguises internal rot.
2002 – after 9/11: A Beautiful Mind.
Unstable psychotic in charge of decoding and tragically misinterpreting signs essential to maintaining national security. Split personality revealed.
2003 – during the entire drumbeat to the invasion of Iraq: Chicago (although Bowling for Columbine did win Best Documentary)
Media circus glamorizes murderous bimbo, justice hijacked, corrupt officials capitalize on mob mentality.
2007 (post-Katrina): The Departed
Corruption and betrayal at the highest levels of authority, trust no one, collapse of confidence, downfall.
in 2005, the Academy could have taken the most blatant FU to Bush by giving Fahrenheit 9/11 Best Documentary
The Academy saved its FU for later, with an Oscar for Al Gore’s documentary. And then the Nobel Prize committee said FU in Swedish, in case the rest of the world missed the message.
I think Buttom is still the clear favorite, simply ’cause it’s the consensus film that has everything the AMPAS loves. Slumdog Millionaire is simply this year’s Sideways. Wall – E is, regretfully, a repetition of what happened to ALL Pixar movies, and it’s gonna be The Dark Knight OR Wall – E at the Best Picture nom – even if both deserve to – I don’t think anything has deeply changed in the Academy. So, I read the game like this:
1. The Curious Case of Benjamin Buttom (sh*tload of noms)
2. Slumdog Millionaire
3. either Wall – E or The Dark Knight – but little chance of winning
4. Milk – but more weakened than expected 4-6 noms only and losing everything.
5. either The Wrestler, Doubt or Frost/Nixon
I hope I am wrong, though. Still have to see much of the big players, but both The Dark Knight and Wall – E are simply better than 90% winners in Oscar history.
I must add that a Director line up with Stanton, Nolan, Boyle, Fincher and Aronofsky would make me jump in joy. Too good to be true.
There seems to be a lot of people who think Gran Torino will get a Best Picture nomination. I have seen it, and I did enjoy it for what it is, but it’s not Best Picture material. I can see Clint Eastwood being nominated for Best Actor, though.
I think Daldry could get in Director. Less convinced by Best Pic (8th, 9th-ish in my mind).
As long as Milk does not win best picture I’ll be happy. I saw it last night, it was dull and I didn’t feel anything for the characters or the situation. It was extrmemly mediocore.
Ryan–
Good analysis! So…
2009 – Obama becomes first black President: The Dark Knight
A dark hero correctly trusts in the goodness of humanity to stop themselves from self-destruction after being terrorized by an unrepentant thug, and succeeds a well-intentioned yet corruptable and ultimately evil politician as the savior of Gotham.
Oh my Lord, Ryan. LOL. You know I love you like the proverbial obese child and his dessert, but that was one of your most batshit posts ever. Al Gore as “valiant hero”? Clinton and Lewinsky as “doomed romance”? ‘Cause nothing says romance like a cigar in the hoo-ha at the office.
As someone who considers himself a Watergate buff, I think Frost/Nixon is a travesty. The first half is deadly dull, the second half is built on a lie that the Frost interview was historically significant. There’s no way it should be seriously considered for Best Picture.
Wall-E, on the other hand … the closing credits alone are worthy of a Best Picture nom.
“red_wine, Wall-E (featuring “unknown character actors” Ben Burtt, Jeff Garlin, Kathy Najimy, John Ratzenberger, Sigourney Weaver and Fred Willard)”
Paul, don’t get so defensive. Sigourney was added later anyway. What I mean by this, and you should know, Wall-E is not driven by the stars who do the voice acting as, say, Bee Movie or Kung Fu Panda. Maybe they aren’t unknown to you – but they aren’t really stars. Weaver is the best case you can make for a star. Clearly it was intention to feature “non-stars” in Wall-e but still talented actors. Good lord, have a hissy fit why don’t you.
How can you say that President-elect Obama is the right person for the job of president when he hasn’t done anything yet? It’s like those who say he’s going to ruin the country – it’s way to soon to tell.
This article brings to the fore something that has been pressing on my brain since the percursors, and Sally Hawkins, Wall-E and Slumdog Millionaire have been hoarding all the prizes. I can’t fathom that, with such outstanding performances, Meryl Streep, Kate Winslet (who really, REALLY needs an Oscar) and Anne Hathway will probably all go home empty-handed simply because we all need some humor right now. As for Best Picture, I wouldn’t count on Wall-E even getting a nomination. The industry would be insane to ignore The Dark Knight after all of its critical and commercial success (we’re talking a cool billion here folks) it achieved.
Here are my predictions
1. Frost/Nixon-This will get the older academy members votes because like the boring Michael Clayton last year it is non threatening and the voting bloc is big. If not this movie then similar ones like Revoutunairy Road, Ben. Button or Doubt would get this slot.
2. Milk- The academy wants to show that they are for gay rights and it happens to be a critically acliam film too.
3. Slumdog Millionaire- Simply becuase of the critic awards it is getting.
4. Wall e-not is the most critically aclaimed movie of the year it also did pretty well at the box office. Which will get people to watch the show more then nomianted things they have no desire to see like Doubt. As people have said it already is getting critic award love without even promotion. (by the way this is the only movie i have seen of these five)
5. The Dark Night- all the things i said about Wall e apply to this movie and then some.
5. Dark kni
Sasha, it’s only because I’m one of the thousands of “unknown character actors” that are the backbone of SAG that I get all hissy. It just sounds so much like “unwashed masses” or “silent majority,” although I’m sure
that not what you meant.
Signed,
“Pesky actor” No. 7342
Great article Sasha. And Ryan your analysis was interesting.
I don’t know what sort of film people will look to this year. There is such an intense feeling of sheer hope and relief with the prospect of an Obama presidency, but also a lot of uncertainty. The planet is on the brink of depression, and who knows when another terrorist could strike? We now live in a world of hope and fear, rather than you know, just fear.
Wall-E has the hope. It’s the sort of film that probably wouldn’t get a best picture nomination, but this year, anything is possible. But what about The Dark Knight? It’s bleak, but in a way the film reminds me a little of Obama himself. It was a film that had all this anticipation and emotion and even some skepticism attached to it and making all the money that it did sort of validated people’s feelings about it. It’s sort of the film people are excited about, but aren’t sure if it can actually win the big prize. A film like this has never been nominated for best picture before. Like Obama, it’s something new.
Great article Sasha. I would however say that in this time of change and hope there is still doubt and foreboding mixed in. Despite the fact that Obama was elected president and a new era in world history has dawned, there still alot of despair and doubt as to wether anyone let alone the president can change anything. The ultimate Oscar Best Picture line-up might refelect this, hope and change could be represented by WALL-E, Slumdog Millionaire, Milk; whereas doubt and despair could be represented by The Dark Knight, Doubt, Revolutionary Road. All in all I think a hopeful/up-lifting film is more likely to win this year, we need cheering up…
You see, this is the sort of great writing that makes you want to take Sasha to bed.
Your post is effin’ brilliant Sasha but I will say this. No matter where the direction is leading now, no matter where it’s going, no matter how it’s going to get there. The Academy always hates getting told what to do. So as much as we’d like to see the frontrunners such as Wall-E and Slumdog Millionaire get the nomination (I’d love it for both of them along with TDK to be perfectly honest). when the big five are named and one or the other is not in it, it’s time to look at the ones in the second tier. The ones that did make it in, where’s their momentum? Because when the Academy says it so, we (unfortunately) cannot argue why, but follow on and try to understand. I’d like to study the years where a trend like this was starting with the critics and then broken by the golden globes which then lead to whatever it was not winning best picture. It may happen again this year…
Fascinating article Sasha. Great work, as always.
To me, the race still seems wide open, which is exciting to me. There is no on movie that screams “I am going to win Best Picture!” Like the election of Barack Obama, I think this year’s awards will follow the theme of “anything’s possible.”
Three movies many of the commenter’s above consider front runners (Milk, TDK, WALL-E) are NOT nominated for the Golden Globe, the sometimes reliable pre-cursor to the Oscar. Other movies receiving buzz (The Wrestler, Gran Torino) also were not nominated. Movies that seem to be getting somewhat lukewarm responses from critics and viewers alike (Rev. Road, The Reader) are nominated. As has been stated above, even Benjamin Button is not entirely safe. Maybe the Academy will nominate three films not nominated for the Golden Globe for its top prize. This year, anything’s possible.
Maybe the “pesky actors” will consider an animated film great enough to be worthy of the top prize, and not just the prize in its alotted category.
Maybe even the crustiest of Academy voters will see not just a Batman movie, but a fairly well-written, character-driven morality play disguised as a Batman movie, and nominate The Dark Knight for the top prize.
Maybe the Academy will for the first time ever award an actor posthumously for a truly great performance given before the sudden end of his life. (I thought Mr. Ledger had a shot at the Oscar after watching the first TDK trailer, and that was months before he died).
Maybe the Academy will award a film devoted to the life of a heroic, openly gay politician.
This year, anything’s possible. And that is an exciting thought.
Can’t wait until the recent Oscar fare makes its way to my hometown of Pittsburgh. Going to see Milk on Wednesday. No Slumdog until Christmas. No Rev. Road until mid-January. I don’t know when The Reader or the Wrestler will make its way to town.
I predicted that the mood of the country will affect the Oscars. I even called that Milk and Slumdog will get a huge boost. I did not expect Climate McChange Wall*E would do so well. But there it is.
I would hate for Slumdog to win if only because it’s a superficial reflection of the times. It’s a movie about luck, chance, destiny, or whatever you want to call it. It’s not about rewarding hard work, intelligence, or even activism. Hardly Obama-hopeyness. And I’m calling the motivations of the brother in the end as BS.
I would add that the post-election win did not benefit THE VISITOR. The Visitor addresses the problems with this country without being heavy handed.
I sure hope that the country does not forget to address this problem in the middle of its drunken hopeyness. The election is just the beginning. It hasn’t solved anything yet.
Richard Jenkins was in NPR’s Fresh Air with Terri Gross. I nearly cried when I heard the clips from the movie. He deserves to be nominated.
Leave a reply