The Carpetbagger posted two items yesterday that tied loosely together – one was reporting the news that Deep Throat, Mark Felt, had finally died. This was to be the moment we discovered Deep Throat’s identity; didn’t Woodward say that he would only reveal the source once the source was dead? But Felt decided to reveal himself some time ago. Anyway, he’s dead. Meanwhile, the Bagger reports on the plethora of Frost/Nixon covers in the trades and how Universal is pulling out the stops.
But I don’t think this campaign is going for the Big Win so much as it’s ensuring that it’s not the fifth film edged out in case Doubt, Wall-E and/or The Dark Knight wedge in. Frost/Nixon seems about as secure as you can get but you never know. So if Best Picture is coming down to: Benjamin Button, Milk, Slumdog that leaves two slots for Frost/Nixon, Doubt, Wall-E (maybe), The Dark Knight (maybe), The Wrestler (possibly), Revolutionary Road (looking like a long shot at this point, but that was Atonement this time last year).
Frost/Nixon is the fourth, I believe. If all of those other films are battling it out for the fifth, and if we’re talking about actors having the biggest majority of the vote, that makes Doubt next in line. If we’re talking about a more popular film with audiences pulling votes from the other branches, like the techs for instance, The Dark Knight might turn up. If, though, ultimately we’re talking about a film EVERYONE loved with absolutely no reservations, Wall-E pushes through. You see, it could tip in any direction depending on how many number one votes a particular film gets.
My own opinion on this is that Milk, Slumdog, The Dark Knight and Wall-E are number one choices before they are number three or four choices, meaning, their fans are passionate ones. Benjamin Button could be a number 1 or 2. Doubt and Frost/Nixon could be number 3 or 4s. The Wrestler and Revolutionary Road 4 or 5s.
Next Friday, Oscar ballots are sent out to the 6,000 members of the Academy, and directly after New Year’s, the DGA and PGA will make their big announcements. Both are going to be honoring, I feel sure, Slumdog and Danny Boyle, Benjamin Button and David Fincher, Frost/Nixon and Ron Howard, Gus Van Sant and Milk. I think the PGA will honor The Dark Knight and I’m going to assume that they also will honor Christopher Nolan. If Nolan misses the DGA nod, the film will not be nominated for Best Picture. It’s all about the next three weeks.
35 Responses for "Three Weeks"
I thought Case of Benjamin was the one we were all taking for granted and would get curiously unbuttoned by Oscar, but could it be Milk that gets spilt, turns sour, insert pun of choice?
Frost/Nixon vying for the coveted “least deserving nominee” slot.
Mark Felt dying at 95 (bless him) after already revealing he was Deep Throat is the perfect anti-climax metaphor for Frost/Nixon.
There were more revealing interviews between Charlie Gibson, Katie Couric, and that other person this year than anything you’ll see in Frost/Nixon.
In fact, want to save yourself 10 bucks? Go to youtube and watch the 5 minute clip of the real Nixon-Frost interview — the only 5 minutes worth seeing in the movie.
The real Nixon plays his role with a lot more nuance, intensity, and realism than Langella. And it won’t have a whole pointless 2-hour sideshow fabricated around it that tries to make Nixon look like Napolean banished to Elba.
Is anybody really in the mood to see another lying, conniving, murderous, paranoid president skate scot-free on all his crimes? I got to see Frost/Nixon for $0. So I got my money’s worth.
Wow, Ryan. Tell us how you really feel about Frost/Nixon.
Sasha, not to be picky but, Felt… “finally” died?
So, is “Wall-E” submitting for Best Picture of Best Animated Picture? Can it be nominated for both or just one?
Personally, I think it should stay in Best Animated Picture. If it stays there, it’s a lock to win. If it goes for Best Picture, it’ll probably lose; however, who really knows??? hehe
-Vincent
My Dad didn’t love Wall-e, and neither did I. Don’t make sweeping statements, Sasha. :p
I disagree about Atonement. A lot of people still had it on their list whereas almost no one has Revolutionary Road. That may or may not change after the darn thing finally comes out, though.
And Wall-E — The Incredibles, Finding Nemo, and Shrek were all doing better at this point than Wall-E, and none of them got a Best Picture nomination. Maybe they didn’t get quite as many critics awards, but their box offices were all *considerably* better. I feel like every year it’s a fool’s errand to think that the animated movie has a chance.
After seeing WALL-E last night, I can understand why people have fallen in love with this movie. The characters of WALL-E and EVE are so charming and the messages the film has about obesity, environmentalism, and others are very poignant. If WALL-E is to be nominated for Best Picture, it wouldn’t be such a crime. Personally, The Dark Knight should go all the way, but let’s remember, it’s not about the movie we love. Yeah, it’s nice to root for a movie, but as Tom O’Neil has made clear in the past two Oscar races, sometimes you have to face the facts that the movie you love isn’t loved by the Academy (i.e. Dreamgirls and Sweeney Todd) Which I have to give Tom credit this year for playing the Swiss card for he hasn’t been going gaga for one movie. He’s really becoming a great Oscar blogger.
I think Button is starting to trip up. The buzz has gone from deafening to very mute. Slumdog seems poised to become the top dog. I think Doubt’s GG scenario is going to repeat come nomination morning and I think Frost/Nixon is in a bit of trouble. Milk, I feel, is the movie everyone should watch out for. It’s touching on a topic people feel passionate about, and it’s affecting a lot of people (i.e. Reel Geezers gave it raves, if that’s not an indication I don’t know what is). I just don’t see Slumdog being the Academy’s choice. Good story, yes, beautifully shot, but is it under the Academy’s liking. Nominations wise, probably.
What I think would be an amazing turn of events is if Tropic Thunder gets a nomination for Best Original Screenplay. After seeing it last night, it was hilarious and definitely skewered enough of Hollywood without going over the top. But then again, the Hollywood community may not feel so kind to a film that makes them look like fools.
This Oscar race has been, by far, the best of the decade. Never before have we seen so many great, and I mean GREAT, movies compete for the top spot. Until GG and SAG and other awards start coming in, it’s anyone’s guess at this point.
(And thank god for that, because last year was a snooze fest…no drama or suspense at ALL)
Finally died, as in — Watergate-o-philes would have ordinarily been on Deep Throat Death Watch as they waited out his passing to find out his identity. But yeah, poor guy. Wish him and his family the best. Sorry to sound so harsh.
Sorry you and your dad didn’t like Wall-E Nick, but if there is a sweeping statement to be made about any film in 2008 it’s Wall-E. I’m not going to say — “everyone, except this one guy and his dad I know, loved Wall-E.” Literally everyone? No. Most people? Yes. Therefore, “everyone” is most people.
And Ryan – Frost/Nixon is saved by Frank Langella’s amazing performance, one that has stuck with me a few days after seeing it. It was sad, haunting, funny — Anthony Hopkins was my favorite Nixon but now I think Langella has trumped him. While I loved The Queen, I felt it was a showcase for Mirren and I feel the same way about Frost/Nixon — even though it’s made out to be more sweeping — the fringe characters don’t play as well as Langella – it reminded me of Oliver Stone’s JFK. I really hated the scene where they were making jokes and laughing at their own jokes. If they had just not laughed at their jokes the scene would have worked. Anyway, Langella made it (for me) all worth while.
call me crazy but… this was my favorite film of the year.
never thought I’d say that about a Ron Howard film!
I agree with you Sasha, WALL-E definitely showcased a new potential for animation. It didn’t have a lot of dialogue, but it didn’t need it. It really trumped Beauty and the Beast in some cases.
@ Seth:
This seems to be a great year, but how to forget 2001? It was really an espectacular year for movies and for Oscar choices(LOTR, Moulin Rouge, Gosford Park, Amelie, Man Who Wasn’t There, Beautiful Mind, Black Hawk Down, In the Bedroom…) Wow, that year was amazing!!!!!!!!!!!!
I find it interesting that Doubt would even be considered next in line solely because of the actor’s branch. Sure, the actors loved the performances. So did everyone else. The film features 4 very showy roles and a majority if not all of them will be honored with a nomination come Oscar morning. However, just because it’s leading the SAG in nominations, I don’t think one should assume it’s a strong contender for the 5th spot.
Who said actors HAVE to give their number 1 best picture vote to a film that best represents their craft? Maybe a few actually do that, but I think, in the end, the individual goes with their heart. If an actor thought Wall-E was the best film of the year, what’s wrong with that? Doubt is not the kind of film that will garner hardly any #1 votes. If academy actor voters chose their best picture based on “best acting overall”, we would have seen a Best Picture nomination for Into the Wild.
Best Picture is never decided by precursors. It’s decided by the 5 films that garnered the most passion amongst voters. With this in mind, Slumdog Millionaire will have no problem getting in. Neither will Benjamin Button, which has left some viewers cold but has left a majority of academy viewers weeping. Frost/Nixon is the “Michael Clayton” of 2008. The old folks need a film to rally behind, and a conventional drama about an event they remember vividly is the one they will back up. Milk…I fear, is in more trouble than one might think. Who’s going to back this film up? The steak eaters? No. The geezers? Hell, no. That’s a majority of the academy. The women? Maybe, but it seems that most of them would throw their support behind Slumdog. Milk’s chances for a nomination lies in the hands of the intellectuals who actually bother to see the film. I’d be surprised if Milk fails to garner the nomination, but I won’t be shocked.
The fifth slot is certainly up for grabs, but as of this moment, The Dark Knight or Wall-E are the most likely. It’s not just time to stick a fork in Revolutionary Road. Let’s see how it performs at the guilds and Globes, and especially with audiences. The film hasn’t even been released yet! So if we start seeing a late “There Will Be Blood-type”" surge for this film, it’s back in the race. And The Wrestler has passionate voters behind it as well. The strong reviews are a good start. Its fate lies in guild support.
I know this year looks pretty locked up, with Slumdog, Button, Milk, Frost/Nixon, and The Dark Knight all sure things for best picture nominations, or at least the first 4, but that’s what we think every year, and we keep getting proven wrong again and again. Expect surprises with the major guilds. Just like we were surprised to see Schnabel and Gilroy on DGA’s list last year, as well as Bennett Miller in 2005, we can see Darren Aronofsky, Sam Mendes, or even Andrew Stanton making the list. You never know.
Ugh, I loved Wall-E, but it’s not in my Top 5. Therefore, I hope it’s relegated to only Animated.
F/Nixon was good. Not even in my Top 20.
I’d like to see Slumdog, Milk, Dark Knight, and then maybe CCBB, or Reader, Rev. Road, Wrestler, or surprise Defiance over, for sure … F/Nixon.
Doubt is a really good, really entertaining film. Meryl Streep is phenomenal in it. It’s easily one of the best films of the year, imo.
Doubt is brilliant. I cannot understand the lukewarm press (though it allowed me to go into the film with zero expectations — and that’s always good).
I call bullshit on all these whiners who say it’s not doubty enough. For one thing, shut up. Let people discover for themselves. For another thing, if people are saying there’s not enough doubt — if they’re so damn certain — then doesn’t that make them Sister Aloysius? I think that’s one of the most fascinating things about the film: how it plays with our own notions of what we think we’re suppposed to know. It’s a whole ‘nother layer laid over the original concept of the play.
But mainly, you never think about all this analytically in the middle of the movie. Not until later does it all begin to reverberate. I was too wrapped up in the film to be dissecting as it unfolded. Because Doubt has something Frost/Nixon does not: characters I give a shit about.
…characters I give a shit about.
The Bielski partisans.
Harvey M. & his Castro cohorts.
Benjamin, Daisy, Queenie & their New Orleans family.
Mrs. Miller (Viola Davis).
Harvey D., Bruce W., the Commish, Alfred et co.
Randy Robinson and his so-called life.
Rachel’s wedding party.
WALL-E & EVE.
Julliette und Léa Fontaine.
I know I’m wrong about this, because I would be shocked not to see it in the BP mix, but I just don’t see anyone (even the older voters, for whom Watergate was a life-defining moment) voting F/N in the top slot. With all due respect, who in the world thinks it’s the best film of the year? It’s not even Howard’s best and Langella already seems like an also-ran when he should have been dominating.
I’m not a hater, I thought it was an OK film, actually better than I expected. But come on. Seriously? Where’s the glory in campaigning to be everyone’s 4th or 5th favorite film? More DVD dollars, I suppose.
Just to clear things up first, I really enjoyed Doubt. I think the problem most people, not including myself, are having with the film lies in the ending. SPOILER ALERT Most people are wondering how Sister Aloysius can have such a sudden change in behavior in the final scene. END SPOILER I’m able to make sense of it, but many people aren’t. The ending is certainly not the home run the filmmakers intended it to be.
Doubt is a very strong film, but it’s not the kind of film that will get #1 votes. Whatever passionate support group it has, it isn’t large enough.
@ Blake
I don’t think she does have a ::SPOILER-FREE:: in the final scene. The way Streep plays it, she is not referring to the ::SPOILER-FREE:: but to the institution of Catholic Church itself. And that seemed to me a fascinating departure from the way Cherry Jones played it, or at least the way I perceived it at the time.
@Sasha
I’m confused Sasha, you say you think frost/nixon is close to locked in but u then say u dont see anyone voting it as 1’s or 2’s, so how do you think its a lock? Did I read something wrong?
And as for Doubt, I don’t know if you saw the play, but it was better than the movie, and the play wasn’t very interesting…
Yeah, Ryan, I can’t really explain my thinking except that I don’t see it being a large voting bloc’s number 1, maybe number 2. But I can see it getting in as a number 3 anyway. I don’t see it dropping off. Right now it appears to have the necessary heat and it’s certainly good enough. Doubt, I guess, is the weak link if you think of best pic as:
Ben Button
Slumdog
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Doubt
Milk, Slumdog and Ben Button are number 1s to me. Wall-E is a number 1. The Dark Knight is a number 1. But if one is inclined to vote for Wall-E they might not be inclined to vote for TDK and so those fringe voters may cancel each other out. If actors rule they may go for Doubt all the way as their number 1. It’s all funny numbers anyway – based in pure speculation.
I suppose it’s plausible that it could go:
Ben Button
Slumdog
Milk
The Dark Knight
Wall-E
That leaves out both Frost/Nixon and Doubt – something I just don’t see happening with the large acting branch. If it isn’t both it’s going to be one or the other.
@Sasha,
I think Frost/Nixon will bump one of those. From reading everyone’s take, it does seem to be The Queen pick of the year, the historical film that is pure history with great performances. I originally thought Milk, but then again, Milk is the history film with the honest message. It’s weird to put it that way, but it seems that way.
That would be a CRAZY Best Pic line up, it would garner a lot of viewership. The kids would tune in to see if WALL-E or TDK would win or if Brad Pitt might finally get an Oscar (I have a feeling he’s strong is Ben Button comes in strong). That would be something to talk about. But, perhaps, the whole you’re so cute thing will make him vulnerable? I mean he does make himself unattractive until the end you know? O’Neil’s Actor theory kind of makes Brad Pitt’s nomination less likely.
All that money from Universal for all those ads, replicating the boring poster(of the movie)….As my the great Carpetbagger points out…They ARE overdoing it a bit…
I think that’s because “Doubt” trumped it in the SAGS…REALLY! All those Variety covers saying “Running Scared” to me…
But I don’t think “Doubt” will do it in, if it is to be done in…And I personally HATED “Dark Knight” and didn’t much stand that wonky robot “Wall-E”….I like to relate to —- PEOPLE!
This how the Actor’s Branch will think. They WILL NOT vote for a cartoon in the Best Picture category, when there already is a category for animation for the 100th time! Sheesh! And “Dark Knight” is close to a cartoon…
There’s still other worthy films, like “Revolutionary Road” which I think is MILES better than the CGI-ed to death “Benjamin Button”….Taranji may be the only acting nomination that film gets…
On “Reel Talk” the NYbased movie show(the only one on Broadcast TV) on NBC this morning, Jeffrey Lyons(father of Ben, son of Leonard) disagreed on “BB”. Jeffrey LOVED it, and his British co-host Alison Bailes, was nearer to my reaction “Give me a break” from all those effects.
They were united in the admiration of Taraji but Alison really went off on how bad she thought Cate and Brad were in the second part of the film, and how she thought the Hurricane Katrina framing device was intrusive(too many cut-aways to it) and that Cate was inaudible…
Alison said it was like “two films” which was my impression, too. And she laid a lot of the blame not just on young Brad, but on Cate…She was quite infuriated by her, which surprised me. But also…kind of explains her missing a SAG nomination…
But she did like CGI-ed little, old Brad in the beginning of the film which Taraji dominates…
SOME people don’t realize just who Cate is in the film’s beginning half…So I won’t spoil it….but I knew it was her from the get-go. And if you don’t…and the person I saw it with didn’t either….that’s a lot of screen time taken up with WTF?
Also, Alison pointed out its’ inordinant 2 hrs 45 min. running time, which I also agree with. She said it could’ve been TWO HOURS! Right on, Alison!
Jeffrey Lyons on the other hand LOVED it to pieces and didn’t want it to end and said that “Brad Pitt gives one of the greatest screen performances of all time.”
Oh lord! Is Brad going to be nominated, too?!? So we will have a Brangelina Oscars.
Could they BOTH win?
I thought the Academy was not known for honoring stunt work, which is essentially what Brad is doing…
Sasha could you do a post explaining the Oscar voting procedures, like how nominations are decided and etc. I know most of it, but I had to look it up and I imagine there are a lot of readers who aren’t quite sure about it.
Paul,
I never thought about it that way. That actually makes a lot of sense, because the other way around, it seemed a little out of place for her character to give in at the last second. Unfortunately, I think it might fly over several people’s heads. You’re the first one I’ve talked to that’s brought that up.
Well, Blake, it took me aback me when I saw it, but the way Streep plays it (or my interpretation of how she plays it) is fully supported by the text. Remember, the two nuns have just discussed Father Flynn’s ::SPOILER-FREE:: “status” and Sister Aloysius’ feelings about this are clear.
@ Stephen: Some strong words about BB and I can’t help but sort of agree with you. From what I’ve been hearing, the movie is sort of a character study, and doesn’t have too much going on. I disagree with you on this whole comparison of TDK as a cartoon. It really isn’t. Most of the visuals are stunts and little CGI was used if I’m correct (I could be wrong).
The problem is many movies are trying to do the twelfth hour move. RR is trying to do that and so is Defiance as well as The Reader. Gorgeous movies (not talking about Defiance…which I’m not so sure about it making an impact at all), but their traction is being halted by their releases. Which ticks me off…I want Kate Winslet to get an Oscar darn it. She always seems to get shafted.
And having Brad and Angelina at the Oscars, that’s not a bad thing. Actors like to honor their own, and let’s face it, Brad is trying really hard. And perhaps they don’t view Brad’s work as stunt work. Who knows…
It would be nice for Melissa Leo and Richard Jenkins and Mickey Rourke to get some love. The three of them have done such great work in films that don’t necessarily have the studio power that some others do. Jenkins is sort of like Gosling, SAG noms him and AMPAS follows. Could he be the dark horse?
Sasha
Thanks for clarifying about Wall-e. I didn’t hate it, but I guess I hold it in the same regard as Snow White & the Seven Dwarves; full of charm and some memorable characters, but personally not a favorite of mine. Of course, not everyone agrees, and that’s cool.
“I thought the Academy was not known for honoring stunt work, which is essentially what Brad is doing…”
And once a year Stephen comes around to do stunk work.
Last year what stunk for Stephen were No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood.
I am flabbergasted: Whenever I read his posts, I have always had a particular image of what SH would look and sound like. I just went to his YouTube page for the first time and it was all exactly as I imagined!
(I’m taking that as a sign that my predicting skills are improving, so I expect to win lots of money at the awards pools this year.)
Ben Button is not a lock.
That’s like saying, on any given day a football game can be won by the team with the worst game record of the season.
Academy Awards sometimes have tea leaves to them but they always deliver surprises which is why they are so much fun to track and watch.
A.O. Scott in today’s New York Times: “Doubt, The Reader, Frost/Nixon, Revolutionary Road — all of these transplants from stage or page are impeccably acted, exquisitely production-designed excursions into the recent past. And each one is a hermetically sealed melodrama of received thinking, feverishly advancing a set of themes that are the very opposite of provocative. The suburbs are hell on earth. Richard Nixon was a monster. Literature is good for you. Religious authority is bad. The Nazis too. Kate Winslet is hot.
Why argue? And, for all the shouting and finger pointing that goes on in these films, they exist to be admired, not argued about or with.”
What operation are you recommending? ,
Leave a reply
All comments should respect the Awards Daily House Rules. If you think a particular comment breaks these rules then please let us know, quoting the comment in question.