The Gurus of Gold have posted a recent survey of people who make guesses about how the Oscars are going to turn out. Two films appear to be most highly thought of to win, Benjamin Button and Slumdog Millionaire, while there is some debate about what’s next in line. The interesting thing is that The Dark Knight has jumped to the fifth slot, which shows that many more people are seriously considering the film’s chances where they weren’t before. What does this mean? Well, not much. Blinded guesses at best. Next week, the picture will become more clear, whether it confirms general predictions or not. The DGA and the PGA announce in the New Year and then we’ll know.
In the meantime, the Hollywood Reporter’s Oscar columnist says no way, no how (no McCain) can the Dark Knight ever manage a Best Picture nomination:
- The Dark Knight, the dark horse: It’s a shoo-in for best picture! No, they’ll never nominate it in a million years! The Batman tentpole yielded as many alleged certainties as it did critics’ top 10 spots. Now that the dust has settled, its prospects are where many thought it would be — an Oscar lock for Heath Ledger and an outside shot for director Christopher Nolan.
That’s fine, I can accept that. In fact, it’s the norm that the Academy misses the boat more often than not when it comes to finding the best picture of the year — the last two years have been a respite and if the Dark Knight is snubbed this year it would be mostly in keeping with their history, especially since it’s the dreaded “comic book movie,” and the even more dreaded “Batman movie.” And it’s a sequel. And some people think it wasn’t that good. My thinking on this is if The Fugitive could get nominated and Tommy Lee Jones could win a Supporting Actor Oscar for it, The Dark Knight should not only be nominated but it should be one of the frontrunners to take it home. Why? Because it made upwards of $550 $530 million domestically, because it is a dark tale, brilliantly directed, with a memorable turn by Heath Ledger. But you don’t want to hear all of this because you’ve heard it all by now. So let’s move on to the race as it stands.
Nobody knows anything. Not right now anyway. We’re dealing with a lot of opinions out there. What we do know is that there is only one movie at this moment that appeals across the board to the majority: Slumdog Millionaire. How does any film beat it? It appeals to the heart and to whitey/western guilt – it is Dickensian, directed by the genius Danny Boyle. Two possible turn-offs — one, no major American stars. The last time a film like that won Best Pic was The Last Emperor and even that one was a sweeping epic and had Peter O’Toole in it. Two, subtitles. That didn’t stop Schindler’s List from getting nominated, and weren’t there subtitles in The English Patient? Both The Last Emperor and The English Patient remind me of Slumdog’s chances in this race. All three films have an inevitability about them, partly because they have no viable challengers. No film came remotely close to beating The English Patient and The Last Emperor.
The Last Emperor might have been challenged by Broadcast News but that was a dreaded comedy and anyway, Jim Brooks had already won for Terms of Endearment, but the epic was fated to win. The other nominees were Fatal Attraction (now, you tell me, this movie can get nominated but The Dark Knight can’t?), Moonstruck, and Hope and Glory.
The English Patient was up against Fargo, Gerry Maguire, Secrets & Lies and Shine. Again, the epic takes it. The film with no major stars (at the time) was Secrets & Lies, and everyone was in love with that movie, though not to the degree they appear to be responding to Slumdog.
Now, the question becomes whether Slumdog is the epic or not. Benjamin Button is still the epic in the woodpile but it doesn’t appear to have universal appeal, and seems to be a love it/hate it thing, which makes it a slightly longer shot. And then there is The Dark Knight, which could have more broad appeal within the Academy, even if you take out the directors and actors, because together they make up around 2,000 total, give or take a few hundred. That still leaves many votes up for grabs. If The Dark Knight comes in as the most nominated film, beating the favorite for this, Benjamin Button, you are looking at your new frontrunner. It’s way too early to say that because no one even knows if it will be nominated (an epic fail if it isn’t).
How it will probably stack up, nominations-wise:
Benjamin Button should lead with nominations in:
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor OR Actress
Best Supporting Actress
Screenplay
Cinematography
Costumes
Score
Art Direction
Visual Effects
Makeup
Sound
Editing (maybe)
So 13 possible, and even if you take off Actor or Actress you have 12.
Next up, could be Doubt, which stands to earn:
Doubt
Picture
Director
Actress
Supporting Actor
Supporting Actress
Supporting Actress
Art Direction
Score
Screenplay
Cinematography
Costumes (maybe)
That’s 12 possible, and if you take off costumes, it’s 11. Still a lot.
Next up, should it be nominated, The Dark Knight:
Picture
Director
Supporting Actor
Screenplay (maybe)
Editing
Sound
Score
Visual Effects
Makeup
Sound Editing
Cinematography
That’s 11 possible nominations.
Frost/Nixon
Picture
Actor
Director
Screenplay
Art Direction
Score
Editing
Cinematography (maybe)
7 or 8 possible.
Slumdog Millionaire:
Picture
Director
Screenplay
Supporting Actor (or maybe Lead Actor) Dev Patel
Editing (should get)
Score
Cinematography
7 Nominations (more typical of a winner these days)
Milk:
Picture
Director
Actor
Supporting Actor
Screenplay
Editing (maybe)
Cinematography (maybe)
6 or 7 Nominations possible
The rest of the possibles, like Wall-E, The Wrestler, Revolutionary Road, Rachel Getting Married, are all possible for smaller groupings of nods, like four or five at the most.
That is how it stands. Best Picture isn’t always shaped by the various branches who support the film that best highlights their craft, but it helps. Counting them out this way, appears to favor Doubt for a Best Pic slot, even though it’s dipping somewhat in the blind guesses made by people who make guesses for a living.
But of course, it could all change on a dime and we’ll know more as the guilds make their submissions in the coming month.
No Response for "The Race is On"
the main difference between Slumdog Millionare, The English Patient and the last 1/2 of The Last Emperor is that Slumdog doesn’t suck.
One thing The English Patient had going for it that Slumdog does not is that EP was based on a very highly regarded book – it won the Booker Prize.
It’s funny; “Benjamin Button”. It almost rhymes with “Dreamgirls.”
Mark my words, Button isn’t good enough to be in the final five.
Oh, and guy from Hollywood Reporter? Wait for the Dark Knight to become a strong contender very quickly. I hope you eat your words. :p
I don’t think Doubt is that strong a contender in Art Direction/Cinematography, and if it were to get in, I suspect it’d be the lone directorless film. (Besides, they can reward him in screenplay, where his work is more respected.) Score is also iffy.
Otherwise…looks reasonable.
Is it still popular to say The English Patient sucked without being expected to explain why?
No way Doubt gets nearly that many noms. I’d say the nomination order is the following:
Benjamin Button (13)
The Dark Knight (10)
Milk (8)
Slumdog Millionaire (7)
Wall-E (6) w/no pic-nom
Frost/Nixon (5)
It wasn’t long ago there was talk that Lord of the Rings could never win because it was of the fantasy genre, and that the 2nd film in particular would not be nominated because it was a sequel. TDK is one of the best and most highly-acclaimed films of it’s genre, and of this year. It would be a chance for AMPAS to break through yet another glass ceiling if they honored the film with a BP nomination. It needs the PGA and DGA to come through with noms for a realistic chance of this happening, and I hope it does.
Does Ben Button could have a shot at the record? If it can get both leads nominated like at the Critics Choice and it gets the other tech nominations Sasha lists then that equals the record of 14. A nomination in the extended Sound Editing field and it has 15.
It’s all just speculation at this point. No one knows how it will go – if they really love the film across all branches of the Academy, it stands to get that many nominations. If they don’t, it will only manage half that.
I don’t know about Ben Button getting 14 but I assume it will snag many of the techs for nods and most likely the majors. I don’t see it as a Dreamgirls scenario at all, except that it had the unlucky position of being the defacto frontrunner early on.
Don’t forget about Slumdog’s song nomination as well for 8.
I too thought this morning that Benjamin Button could go the Dreamgirls route and miss the Best Pic nomination. However I hope not cause it’s my best picture of the year and needs to be there (and Cate Blanchett too!) If it was snubbed it better be replaced by BOTH Dark Knight and Wall-E!
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actress
Screenplay
Cinematography
Costumes
Score
Art Direction
Editing
Sound
Visual Effects
Makeup
The Dark Knight
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Supporting Actor
Screenplay
Cinematography
Score
Art Direction
Editing
Sound
Sound Mixing
Visual Effects
Milk
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actor
Screenplay
Slumdog Millionaire
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Supporting Actor
Screenplay
Cinematography
Sound
Editing
Wall-E
Best Picture
Best Director
Animated Feature
Screenplay
Score
Song
Sound
Sound Mixing
Box office always speaks more loudly than critical praise. Unfortunately, I think they’ll see it fit to just nominate one box-office bonanza and it’ll probably be The Dark Knight.
Fare thee well, Wall-E – you deserved it more than any other film this year.
The Dark Knight can and WILL be nominated for Best Picture. It has remarkable technical elements (i.e., sound, production design, editing, visual effects, cinematography, etc.) As we learned from Titanic, The Return of the King, Star Wars, etc., Highly technical films usually top the Academy’s list. On top of that, an all star cast including Heath Ledger. If you get right down to it, many films are nominated solely for great performances. Such films include There Will Be Blood, Norma Rae, On the Waterfront, Coming Home, The Fugitive, etc. Fantastic direction on such a high scaled film. It’s the 3rd highest reviewed wide release film of the year, and grossed $500 million, domestically. Still the Second highest grossing film of all time (not adjusting inflation.) Plus, many possible contenders have fallen out. Also many of those contenders are, and will turn out as box office failures. So what if it’s a comic book film, or a Batman sequel. The Lord of the Rings are much more outlandish, and hardly more plausible, or even have as successful legacy. And when get right down to it, was Titanic nearly as good as L.A. Confidential, or Good Will Hunting? My point is, The Dark Knight has little working against it, but a lot going for it. So what if it didn’t get a Golden Globe nomination. Only two of the three films have a solid shot at being nominated for Best Picture. Besides, when have the Globes, gotten Best Picture right? Or any category for that matter. There are no films that can topple The Dark Knight from its pedestal.
It would be ridiculous not to nominate The Dark Knight for Best Picture. It will happen. You just wait.
Of the eight it is likely to get nominated for, Slumdog looks very likely to win: Best Picture
Best Director
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Sound
Best Editing and
Best Score
Which might make it a mini sweep since it will have only lost Best Actor or Supporting Actor depending where the voters put Dev Patel
Mark mark words today, we are looking at a mini sweep for the Dog
I guess that Benjamin Button will be the most nominated.
Following the number of nominations for film:
Benjamin Button (“Picture”, “Director”, “Screenplay”, “Actor”, “Supporting Actress”, “Art Direction”, “Score”, “Costume”, “Editing”, “Sound Editing”, “Sound Mixing”, “Make-Up”, “Visual Effects” and “Cinematography”) 14 nominations!
Revolutionary Road (“Picture”, “Director”, “Screenplay”, “Actress”, “Actor”, “Supporting Actor”, “Costume”, “Cinematography”, “Score” and “Art Direction”) 10 nominations!
Slumdog Millionaire (“Picture”, “Director”, “Screenplay”, “Score”, “Editing”, “Cinematography”, “Original Song” and “Supporting Actor”) 8 nominations!
Milk (“Picture”, “Director”, “Actor”, “Supporting Actor”, “Screenplay”, “Score” and “Editing”) 7 nominations!
The Dark Knight (“Supporting Actor”, “Editing”, “Sound Editing”, “Sound Mixing”, “Cinematography” and “Visual Effects”) 6 nominations!
Frost/Nixon (“Picture”, “Director”, “Actor”, “Score”, “Editing” and “Screenplay”) 6 nominations!
Doubt (“Screenplay”, “Actress”, “Supporting Actor”, “Supporting Actress” and “Supporting Actress”) 5 nominations!
Wall-E (“Animated Feature”, “Screenplay”, “Sound Editing”, “Sound Mixing”, “Original Song”) 5 nominations!
Don’t overestimate Doubt’s chances in the craft categories. there’s is much stonger, showier competition.
Sasha, you’re wrong about The Dark Knight’s box office. It made $530 million domestically, not over $550 million (not that big a difference, but still):
http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=darkknight.htm
And since when is box office the basis for a best picture nomination? Lots of movies get nominated that barely make anything at all before getting nominated. The Oscars are not the Grammys; they don’t just award the big money makers.
They also don’t automatically nominate for Best Picture all the movies that get lots of tech nominations. In fact, it’s the norm that at least one movie does very well in the tech categories and does NOT get major noms.
My prediction is that Dark Knight and Benjamin Button get majorly snubbed and that Gran Torino and/or one or both Winslet movies become the dark horse nominee(s).
Incidentally, I saw Button last night, and I can safely say that Cate Blanchett’s Oscar chances are about as high as my chances of hooking up with Brad Pitt (and I’m a guy).
“And since when is box office the basis for a best picture nomination? ”
You mean other than since the day the Oscars were invented?
Slumdog can actually get 8… you’re forgetting Song.
And WALL·E can actually get a lot of nominations…
Picture
That’s six
Original Screenplay
Sound
Sound Editing
Score
Song
I Do have to say, I’d much rather see Doubt get a Best Picture nomination than Frost/Nixon. Doubt has four dynamite performances, and when you think about it, has what it takes to possibly sneak in to a few tech categories. I just don’t think Frost/Nixon was on the same level as the other films with a shot here.
‘ “And since when is box office the basis for a best picture nomination? ”
You mean other than since the day the Oscars were invented?’
Take a look at a list of the biggest box office hits of all time and tell me what proportion of them were nominated for any major Oscars:
http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/domestic.htm
Not a whole lot. Better yet, scroll through a list of the top box office hits each year and you’ll see that the overwhelming majority were never Oscar contenders:
http://boxofficemojo.com/yearly/
Just because some winners, like Titanic and Lord of the Rings also made lots of money doesn’t mean being a huge hit causes a movie to get nominated. Most of the movies that get nominated end up making well under $100 million domestically, and the top earners of the year are usually not contenders.
How in the pissing hell is Doubt suddenly a contender in Director, Cinematography, Costumes, and Art Direction? Or Original Score, for that matter? I can’t possibly imagine that ANYONE likes it enough to give Shanely a director’s nod. Even if Doubt manages a Picture nod, Shanelys not even in the top ten. Hell, I’d doubt (har har) that he’s in the top 15, not when you have people like Demme and Leigh and Allen ahead of him.
I’d be stunned if it managed more than one random tech nod, even if it does get a Picture nomination. And frankly, I don’t even see that happening. Not with so many people near demanding that either Dark Knight or WALL-E get in.
@Bernardo S: Heh, you forgot the most obvious one, Best Animated Feature. Director is a long shot too btw.
And since when is box office the basis for a best picture nomination?
I would say the traditional Oscar film is something not very brilliant with good box-office and popular consensus. Box office is always a draw for Oscars, scroll through their history. Its only in the last few years that there has been a vast chasm between the movies that make money(Wedding Crashers, Night At The Museum, Sex and the City) and any decent quality. This is really the first time since LOTR films that we have commercially successful movies that are good enough to be nominated.
i dont see doubt getting more than 7ish nods. god spare us if gets a cinematography nod because the gimmicky ridiculousness that they refer to as photography looks like its composed by some 14 year old who thought it would be cool to get upward angles of the actors for special effect. puke. I cant believe people are seriously relating Button to Dreamgirls. you may have some problems with Button but there is no denying that it has many redeeming qualities if you’re on the negative side. Dreamgirls was actually a bad movie. Like it shouldve won razzies for worst actor if not like three or four others. the only slightly redeeming quality couldve been the costumes. I anticipate Ben Button to rack up about 13 noms, TDK at 10ish, and Milk/Slumdog next at 6-8
Chris C–your predictions send shivers down my spine! lol…I do agree with you on Blanchett…I thought she was great in it, but I do not think her performance is necessarily Oscar-worthy. She was lovely, but I did not really feel like it was that difficult of a role, especially compared to her landmark performance in I’m Not There last year. And also, Daisy was not nearly as likeable as Benjamin. That could be a reason why she has been missing out on many of these precursor awards.
But Can u imagine a scenario where they snub both Benjamin Button and The Dark Knight and nominate something like Doubt and Gran Torino???? I would literally probably hang myself….
Wow, from the perspective of someone who isn’t invested or particularly excited by any of these, this is the most boring possible cull from a rather slow year.
just saw ben button. i can understand why you say it’s a love/hate thing. however, i think i fell in the middle. i enjoyed it. it was beautiful. i always enjoy watching brad pitt and cate blanchett. i mean, it was a really good film.
but then, it didn’t feel all that original. which sounds weird, cause i guess maybe it is. but it felt like it stole a lot from forrest gump. it drug in the middle. it flew over the end (which is so tragic). it just, in all honesty felt like it was begging for awards notice. like that’s why it was made. and it felt like any good director could have made it. nothing made it fincher (unless having brad pitt makes it fincher).
so, i guess i wouldn’t be surprised either way. i can see it getting nominated across the board. and i can see it getting snubbed.
the only thing i’m attached to this year is TDK. and my hair is falling out, waiting to see if it gets nominated. i don’t need it to win. but if it were up to me it would get nods for:
picture
director
sup. actor (ledger)
sup. actor (oldman/eckhart)
screenplay
score
cinematography
production design
editing
sound editing
sound mixing
visual effects
the only other movies i have loved this year won’t be seen:
in bruges
redbelt
changeling
Doubt and Dark Knight both have 11 possible. You got Doubt getting nominated for “Doubt” – unless it’s some sort of joke.
LOL @ Aaron. But seriously, why predict based on what you like? My favorite movie of the year was The Fall. You don’t see me predicting that!
I think box office comes into play with big budget movies that could be Oscar contenders but don’t make enough money (like King Kong). So, I think it can prevent a movie from getting nominated. I certainly don’t think they give Oscar nominations as a reward for big box office. The Grammys on the other hand just hand out awards to whatever did well commercially and basically disqualify anything that wasn’t a hit. That’s why the Oscars are a more serious, respected award ceremony than the Grammys. They actually appear to be based on somebody’s perception of quality.
The movie has to make money. Crash is really the only exception I can think of, where the box office wasn’t anywhere near Brokeback’s. It doesn’t have to be a $100 million baby but it should at least show it is making money because that means it has broad appeal anyway. At any rate, things are sucking hard right now in Hollywood and they need to funnel some of the blockbuster money back into the Oscars, I think.
I’m sure that Button will have the most nominations and TDK and Wall-E will have a lot with or without a BP nomination. But Doubt for BP, and all those technical nominations? Please! No way is it getting cinematography or even art direction! I expect four nominations – three actors and the screenplay…maybe score if Milk’s Danny Elfman doesn’t get in.
But Wall-E is definitely getting a score nomination.
But really, if TDK doesn’t take up the fifth slot, then what will? Not Doubt. Not Wall-E. So then what? The Wrestler? Really?
I think TDK will have the second-most nominations anyway. With all that technical/guild support (a la every LOTR installment), even the blockbuster argument is unnecessary at this point.
I’m hoping that the rest of the world (especially the Academy voters) are like me and are wanting something a little more happy or uplifting at the Oscars this year, which is why I propose the following 5 pictures for Best Picture. Yeah, I know some are “sad” movies, but they make you feel good about being alive!
Best Picture:
Curious Case of Benjamin Button (on my second viewing, I loved it)
The Dark Knight (have watched it countless times and is STILL amazing)
Wall-E (Changed my life and loved, Loved, LOVED it)
Slumdog Millionaire (because it’s just SO FUCKING GOOD)
Milk (great film, good acting… kinda my There Will Be Blood/Capote/The Last King of Scotland pic but in the vein of Brokeback Mountain)
And if any of these gets bumped, I just pray that one of the following takes its spot:
In Bruges (yeah, right! but it is great and deserves it)
Doubt (great film with good performances)
Sacha, I disagree with your comment that big box office = a BP nomination. Certainly among the current generation of Oscar voters, they sometimes go out of their way to nominate small movies that barely seem to make a dime (Capote, for example) and avoid the big money-makers. There are exceptions of course (Titanic, LOTR). Doesn’t help that most of the big box office winners nowadays are pure schlock that would never have a hope of being nominated.
From the 50’s – 70’s was when I think we saw the closest alignment between BO and BP. You’re hard-pressed to find many winners from that era that weren’t THE big money-makers of their time (Ben-Hur, Sound of Music, Godfather). But Academy tastes have shifted. Despite all its acclaim, I don’t think anyone could argue that last year’s winner (No Country) had BO momentum behind its nomination or eventual win.
In the earlier years, for every big Gone With the Wind type of blockbuster BP winner, there were 2 or 3 movies like Lost Weekend or The Life of Emile Zola, which I cannot imagine had the crowds lined up around the corner in their day!
For me, there are just too many factors going on in Academy voters minds to say that box office matters the most. And you can probably multiply that view by 5X when it comes to the acting category winners which these past years have been crammed with winners from very small movies.
Having said all that, I can certainly see that healthy BO can sometimes help a movie get nominated. Ghost, anyone?
All of the other films in the top 5 highest grossing movies of all time have been nominated for Best Picture. Box office can have something to do with what gets nominated.
Besides, that’d be awful if they replaced The Dark Knight with Gran Torino or The Reader. I haven’t seen The Reader yet, but judging from reviews (58% on Rotten Tomatoes), it’s not doing as well as people hoped. And I have seen Gran Torino, and it is not Best Picture material whatsoever.
And of course the obvious, the Academy can use the ratings. I don’t think nominating The Dark Knight is a bad idea at all. Not saying it will win, but nominating it will be good enough and catch people’s attention more. Last year they only nominated movies that grossed under $100 (except Juno ended up eventually making more than that), and it had the lowest ratings in the show’s history. When they nominated Titanic in 1997, it had the highest ratings. The Dark Knight happens to be the biggest film since Titanic, so it would certainly help the Academy out.
Chris C – If Dark Knight gets nominated, then 5 of the top 10 highest grossing films domestically were Best Picture nominees. And two of the movies that weren’t were shitty Star Wars prequels. What does that leave you with? Shrek 2 (animated), Pirates 2 and Spider-Man. You even made the separation yourself between “popcorn flicks” and “beloved blockbusters”.
When a movie comes along like Titanic, Star Wars, E.T., Lord Of The Rings and The Dark Knight, you have a perfect storm of critical and public praise. This is an undeniable phenomenon that the Academy up to this point has acknowledged EVERY time. Were they to snub the Dark Knight, the Academy not only would make themselves irrelevant to the public, but to the very industry its supposed to be rewarding. The Dark Knight is the perfect example of why creative people, producers and industry people even attempt to make movies in the first place. The film industry is about making movies that capture the zeitgeist and bring people together in awe in a dark room (and, of course, making a truckload of cash doing that).
We all understand the notion that you can’t please everyone, but some movies manage to please almost everyone, at least until the backlash begins. The Dark Knight did what NO movie since Titanic or at least the Lord Of The Rings managed to do, make a billion dollars and be acknowledged as a work of art. It is my understanding that the people who vote for the Oscars are the same people who make these movies. If The Dark Knight fails to be acknowldged come January 22nd, and I’m not talking a consolation-prize nod to Heath Ledger, then in some small way it would seem to me like the industry has completely lost touch with what the goal of filmmaking is. It would announce that they now have their heads so far up their ass that they don’t know which way is up.
Casey, that “14-year-old” is Roger freakin’ Deakins, one of the most acclaimed, spectacular DPs around. His work on “Doubt” is extraordinary, and I’d like to see you try to shoot a movie that well.
Despite the precursors, it still seems like Frost/Nixon is the one sort of skating by here, potentially turning into a Dreamgirls 08, not Ben Button (which I didn’t care for, so no rooting interest here at all*). F/N isn’t going to have any b.o., it’s a familiar story (which could be a plus or a minus), it doesn’t feel like the kind of film people fall in love with, merely that they appreciate it. And despite coming from often offbeat directors both Slumdog and Button seem poised to be the more middlebrow favorites this year, leaving Doubt and F/N to fight for other votes there. With the way the votes are counted, I could see F/N getting a lot of third and fourth-place votes and missing the five at the expense of not only TDK but Wall-E or Doubt as well. Maybe I’m just rooting too heavily for TDK or Wall-E but I’d rate TDK as the No. 4 contender right now, with the other three fighting for the last spot.
* Spoiler question: If BB was born as a baby-sized human with an elderly man’s body, why in his old age did he look like a regular kid rather than like an adult-sized infant? That at least would have been hilarious.
Grossly overestimating Doubt’s chances for double digit nominations. I agree that Slumdog is looking at 8 nominations and probably 6 wins (Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Score, and Song).
Ben Button – Picture, Director, Actress, S. Actress, Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Art Direction, Costumes, Makeup, Visual f/x
Slumdog – Picture, Director, S. Actor, Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Score, Song
Milk – Picture, Director, Actor, S. Actor, Screenplay, Editing, Score
Dark Knight – Picture, Director, S. Actor, Editing, Cinematography, Art Direction, Score, Sound, Sound Editing, Visual f/x
Frost/Nixon – Picture, Director, Actor, Screenplay, Editing
or
The Wrestler – Picture, Director, Actor, S. Actress, Screenplay
Doubt – Actress, S. Actor, S. Actress, Screenplay
Oh and for the record, I actually loved The Reader, but I’m glad that it seems like its gonna stay under the radar a bit. It makes the movie more of a nice little secret that can get discovered over and over again. I like that.
And here’s how I think the nominations will shape up for at least the major contenders:
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Supporting Actress
Best Cinematography
Best Art Direction
Best Costume Design
Best Score
Best Visual Effects
Best Makeup
I don’t see it getting either Sound noms (during all the party sequences, you literally can’t hear anything that’s being said, the background noise is so loud), I also think it will get a very telling Editing snub (meaning I don’t think it will win BP). And of course you’ll notice that Brad and Cate are out in my book. Too many names trying to get in on the big acting categories and I just feel like we’re looking at a double snub. This could actually mean that another couple is getting in though. Leo and Kate anyone?
THE DARK KNIGHT
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Supporting Actor
Best Editing
Best Cinematography
Best Art Direction
Best Score
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing
Best Visual Effects
I’m confident the Academy will see the light. 10 noms apiece for Button and the Bat.
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Editing
Best Cinematography
Best Score
Best Original Song
Its no big secret. This is our winner, ladies and gentlemen.
FROST/NIXON
Best Picture
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Actor
Best Editing
Best Art Direction (maybe)
Best Makeup (maybe)
This is a tough one, cause I think it could get a BP nom, but strangely I don’t see it getting nominated for much else.
MILK
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Original Screenplay
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actor
Best Editing
Best Cinematography
Best Art Direction
Best Score (maybe)
I think that we’re looking at our winner for Best Original Screenplay and Best Actor here. I also think it will be recognized in Art Direction and Cinematography for convincingly pulling off 70s San Francisco.
DOUBT
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actress (maybe)
I think it’ll be a minor player this year, but the actors will show it love.
REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Art Direction
Best Costume Design
This, my friends, is our Dreamgirls-style snub. The early frontrunner that comes through to get nominated in everything except the big categories. Shame.
The Natural, I’m fully aware that Deakins shot Doubt, in fact I’m a huge fan of his work, specifically with the Coen Bros. (Lebowski, Man Who Wasnt There) and his peak, perhaps the most beautifully shot film ever, imo, The Assassination of Jesse James. needless to say I was very disappointed (and confused) with his work on Doubt.
And your last comment is ridiculous. Clearly I could not photograph a film like Deakins can, but I can still voice an opinion. That’s like saying I shouldn’t be allowed to rip on the Denver Broncos defense. as a Broncos fan, I feel I have a right to voice my disappointment with their play. No way could I play in the NFL, but that doesnt mean I should keep my thoughts to myself.
Yeah, Deakins kinda ran amok without a strong director. He’s my favorite cinematographer, but jeez, his work on Doubt is dreadful.
I think people at AD exist in an alternate universe where TDK is one of the frontrunners for a BP nom.What THR writer says is probably closer to reality.TDK looks much weaker then any of the recent blockbusters nominated for BP including all three LOTRs films, Titanic, Gladiator and even Chicago. TDK has missed two of the precursors that each of those films attained a GG best picture nom and SAG ensemble.ROTK, Titanic, Gladiator, Chicago all were nominated and won BP at the GG. All got SAG ensemble noms with ROTK and Chicago both winning. Right now TDK has less going for it as far as precursors then Dreamgirls a film that won GG best picture and was nominated for SAG ensemble.Its still early but TDK looks more likely to go the way of The Matrix which ended up winning four tech Oscars. The difference being TDK will almost certainly win a supp actor Oscar.
Honestly, none of TDK’s biggest boosters have really come up with a good explanation as to how the movie’s wobbly conclusion isn’t going to potentially knock it out of contention. I think it’s teetering in the fifth spot, with Doubt or Frost/Nixon nipping at its feet.
The comparisons to LOTR aren’t entirely valid, considering the source books were considered unfilmable, and Jackson’s marathon shoot in New Zealand for the three films was already the stuff of legend.
I think (for the win) the standings are:
1. The Curious Case of Benjamin Buttom
2. The Dark Knight
3. Slumdog Millionaire
… and I don’t really count on the rest as winners. IF there wasn’t an Animated Feature cathegory, Wall·E would be the 4th horse in the race for the victory.
For the nom, the standings, imho, are:
1. The Curious Case of Benjamin Buttom (lock)
2. Slumdog Millionaire (lock)
3. The Dark Knight (safe)
4. The Wrestler (likely, heating up)
5. Frost / Nixon (yes, over Doubt!) (likely, Ron Howard’s comeback!)
6. Doubt (could happen upon the acting branch support, however I think F/N has an edge)
7. Wall·E (could happen, the distance between 4 and 7 is extremely narrow… however I still think TDK and WE at the same time would be a – pleasant – shocker).
8. Milk (longshot, thank God!)
9. Revolutionary Road (longshot, and I don’t really understand why save for the possible explanation that Benjamin Buttom and Doubt are stealing the attention of its audience).
10. There’s no 10th movie. Or so I guess.
LOL, Jesus, what do you have against Milk?
I agree that The Wrestler is heating up and could sneak in. I forgot to give it a definite nom for song, and potentially editing, bringing its total to 7.
Milk is getting in the top 5, although I wonder if Van Sant is going to be on the outside looking in for Best Director.
tsk tsk tsk.
some of you are going to be sooooo pissed off on Jan 22nd. Can’t wait.
**continues to eat popcorn**
When was the last time Score and Best Picture lined up perfectly??
The problem with predicting nomination counts is that you have an over/under of like 7. Yes, The Dark Knight could get 11 nominations, but ti could be relegated to the techs and only get 4 or 5.
Doubt could get a tonne of acting/writing noms but get totally shut out in tech.
It’s too early to tell, but while Button is polarizing, it’s not nearly as bad as something like Dreamgirls to fall from favourite to no-show. Bigger movies always fare better when there’s a shred of doubt, but often end up shut-out when the awards get handed out.
Thus, I think Button (if it’s as hit/miss as everyone says) will be closer to Gangs of New York or Matser and Commander where it gets noms but not wins, versus a near shutout like Into the Wild or Dreamgirls (at least shut out where it matters most).
here are my two cents…
besides the point that TDK is an incredible film… it has a huge fan base, its loved by critics, and its simply amazing as a film, as a whole…
last year the oscars had the lowest rating in the past i dont know how many years… so what better way to boost up audiences, by nominating the most entertaining, film of the year, with one of the most iconic performances in movie history… (yes, it is)… so… i’ll have to say that the dark knight should be nominated, and it will…
The mistake many people make is to assume that the average Academy voter gives a rat’s ass about boosting the ratings for the Oscar show. AMPAS members vote for what they like, or what they think is cool or prestigious. Only Sid Ganis and the Board of Governors care about ratings.
That said, I think in this weak year The Dark Knight has a fighting chance at a BP nom. Wall-E might, too, though it’s probably destined for the Animated Feature ghetto.
If I have a thousands dollars to bet in The Dark Kight as one of the nominees for BP, I will do it whitout a blink. Can’t see enough reasons do not see as that, really. It has all: huge box office, prestige with the critics, etc. More: it’s a cultural phenomenon, something that exceeds cinema itself, and become a matter of debate in the mainstream media, underground media, universities… endless list.
Academy’s Awards are all about industry, not public and critics. They’re both fields of very importance, but with the movie didn’t touch the industry… When the Guilds nominations are closed for sure the solo snub for one of them wil be that from the SAG. “Dark Knight” will ne nominated for DGA, WGA, ASC, the make-up artists, and so on. And with the lame USA telecast ratings from last year, the Academy want ensure that a movie attracts good audience.
Know what? If I have ten thousands I bet it.
Sasha or Ryan, could you please give your opinion on the argument that so and so or this and that will be nominated to boost ratings? I agree with ladylurks. I just don’t see the average academy voter thinking about ratings as he/she’s ticking off the ballots.
Ladylurks, “Milk” is an OK film but nothing special. Actually a lost chance of doing a great movie. I can’t get how people is praising so much Brolin, Franco and Penn – which are very good, but not great – when the true performance of the movie is Hirsch. Just the peak of the iceberg of the most outrageous publicity campaign since “A Beautiful Mind”. “Milk”, to me, is a coward film, an ass-kissing, awards-beggin joke of a movie. While technically good, everything in it seems to me desperate, fake, bland, cheesy, scared of being actually gay. It portraits Milk as an almost saint, with almost no shadow. When it comes to the point of the demonstrations, instead of using more classic filmmaking that would underline the poignancy of the situation, van Sant continues with the handheld camera, the shaky one that gives the movie an “indie” look. But how am I going to buy as “indie” a movie that so clearly and prominently features stars and is scheduled firmly in the Awards season? Technically good, yes, very good performances, yes, but ultimately a movie so wrong on so many levels that reminds me of the worse van Sant, the Awards-obsessed that delivered “Good Will Hunting” and “Finding Forrester”.. not the one that gave us masterpieces as “Drugstore Cowboy” and “Elephant”. THOSE are guts. Milk is just liquid chesse. Excuse me if I don’t jump the bandwagon of those who are eager to see “Brokeback Mountain 2″ win the Oscar the first one should have won. 2 mistakes don’t make something right.
Oh, and actually, The Dark Knight is the only real and logichal alternative to Buttom winning. Millionaire has no stars and Boyle still pales in comparison of track record with both Fincher and Nolan, in Hollywood eyes.
Slumdog Millionaire is just this year’s Sideways of Little Miss Sunshine. Even Pulp Fiction had a better chance against Forrest Gump than Slumdog versus BOTH The Dark Knight and The Curious Case of Benjamin Buttom – two movies that ain’t gonna split voters.
It’s a huge mistake to think AMPAS will nominate a film for television ratings rather then nominating what they like. If that was the case they would have nominated Dreamgirls for best picture instead of “Letters from Iwo Jima”.
Osbourne Cox, much as I love a good conspiracy theory, I’m always skeptical of any theory that imagines the Academy as a single organism with a brain that thinks in terms of WWAMPASD? I could be wrong. Maybe all 5100 members get together like the Bilderberg Group to plot strategy and image manipulation, like the cabal meeting at the remote estate in Eyes Wide Shut. Fun to think of all the Academy members turning on Tom Cruise when he’s discovered as an intruder.
When Academy members each start getting a cut of the ad revenue is when they start caring about ratings. They get the same swag bags no matter how many people tune in to see who they’re wearing.
Well, Ciffy, you and I will have to disagree on Milk. I thought it was excellent, both the acting ensemble and the directing/editing. Yes, Van Sant made less flashy choices than usual as a director, but those were dictated by the material, which he obviously wanted to present in a semi-documentary style.
As for Slummy being the new Sideways/Little Miss, I don’t know if that’s true. Although it’s a quirky crowdpleaser, it also has the poverty and globalization themes, the “important message” they seem to look for in a BP winner, and lots of technical razzle-dazzle. That might get it over the hump.
But I’m thinking lovely, misshapen, curious Benjamin Button will still top all comers for the win.
I think the better analogy for Button is that it’s this year’s Aviator. Sweeping epic with A-List Actor who wants to be taken seriously as a capital A Actor (Pitt-Dicaprio), an edgy director championed by film geeks who thinks the main path to Oscar is a sweeping epic that plays against their usual strengths (Marty-Fincher), and both films are sweeping epics that take place across a few decades, designed to pull in the tech nominations. Any other year, Aviator would have won, but Clint snaked the Oscar with savy filmmaking and a story that simply connected better with people (say what you will, but MDB was kind of interesting to look at). Danny Boyle’s work on Slumdog was utterly dazzling, and the film was clearly NOT made to win Oscars. Slumdog wins BP by a nose.
I could be wrong but stcik to my feeling.
It’s a huge mistake to think AMPAS are not very worried with the ratings after the last cerimony poor result. New presenter, new director of telecast. Coincidence? It’s not the only pro-aspect for “Dark Kinght” but one of them. # 59 very cool first paragraph, Ryan. And, yes, what makes the Oscar so cool to watch. There is secret society meeting with 5100 debating.
# 61 Very good analogy.
Ladylurks, my point is, the directing of Milk is its weakest point, the semi-documentary style loses credibility when you portrait Harvey Milk as a saint-in-life, it’s a hagiography, an idealization of Milk’s life, deleting the edges. I don’t know if you know much about gay life in the 70’s in Castro, but certainly the “naiveness” and “inocence” portrayed in the movie felt totally unreal to me. I can understand van Sant’s decission to “erase” the points that could prevent some viewers from actually see the film (remember Brokeback Mountain trouble with some AMPAS members?), but because of that, this watered down version of gay San Francisco in the 70’s is frustrating. I’m not asking it to be as hard as Friedkin’s “Cruising” but certainly there’s a middle point that would have made this a way more interesting and believable film to me.
While I think it’s a valid argument that the combination of being one of the all-time highest grossing movies and getting great reviews propels movies to a BP nomination, and that it’s not box office alone but a combination, if you look at all the movies that seems to apply to (the movies in the top 20 of all time that were nominated for BP), ALL the other movies had major precursors. They ALL were nominated for or won a Golden Globe for BP. The Dark Knight would be the one exception, if it got a BP Oscar nom. So, it might be that the “perfect storm” many of you are looking for would have to involve huge box office, critical praise, and precursors, which TDK doesn’t have. Not saying it’s impossible, but keep in mind that many of those other big earners got very positive reviews as well, and just weren’t consider major award material.
wow, now that i think about it… “Milk was Bad, No no no, it was Great, TDK is not Best Pic Material, Doubt is awfull, Slumdog Is weak” bla bla bla… HOW MANY OF YOU!!!! HAVE WON AN OSCAR????
p.s. say what you want but i think we need a life…
The PGA announces its nods 1/6, the WGA 1/7, the DGA 1/8…the Globes are handed out 1/11…I will have seen all the pics in contention by 1/15. And by that time the ACE (1/12) and the BAFTA (1/15) nominations will also have been announced…
So I’m holding off making any more Best Pic predictions for the next two weeks or so. My head hurts from all this speculation.
Ryan, thanks for your thoughts. Like someone said earlier. If the voters were so concerned about ratings, Dreamgirls would have received a nomination; one or both of Brangelina would have received a nod (since if you nominate one you get both on the red carpet) but alas Jolie was snubbed for A Mighty Heart and Brad was completely overlooked for Jesse James (I’m still bitter about that one).
where a majority of 5100 voting members are being paid off by ABC to ensure good ratings.
I just don’t believe in the secret society of voters theory
I don´t want to affront someone, and I know some people on this board literally went mad about “The Dark Knight”, but if anyone believes a Batman movie will lead the noms and will be the official frontrunner for WINNING best picture, he or she has really not the best judgement in the taste of the academy members… (I´m very diplomatic right now)
In no fucking way…
And beside that: It´s hard to imagine anything beating “Slumdog Millionaire” at this point. I worry about “Benjamin Button”s 69-metacritic-score.
That´s just not good enough for a frontrunner. (and don´t argue about TDKs high score- Wall-E is still higher and just as little a frontrunner)
I just came out of Benjamin Button about an hour and a half ago, and I have to say, if that film doesn’t deserve a best picture nomination…I don’t think any of them do, not even TDK! And Cate and Brad better get their nominations as well!
Button is now my personal favorite of the contenders but I still have to see Slumdog, F/N and Doubt. However I have a hard time believing that one of those three can possibly top it. Unfortunately, I still think Slumdog will be the one that ends up winning the big prize but you never know. Benjamin Button, without a doubt, deserves all 13 of those nominations Sasha mentioned, even more than TDK or Wall-E deserves theirs.
Regarding Box Office versus Best Pic winners (the original thread here, I believe), it’s usually (50% of the time) the SECOND place box office movie that wins the Oscar. Almost never has the 5th place box office movie won the Best Picture Oscar. This is based on stats over the past 30 years.
Check the past few years and you’ll see what I mean.
Chris Pine – Very well said. capturing the zeitgeist and perfect storm of critical and public praise and all the other quoteable things you said , ’specially this bit.
“We all understand the notion that you can’t please everyone, but some movies manage to please almost everyone, at least until the backlash begins. The Dark Knight did what NO movie since Titanic or at least the Lord Of The Rings managed to do, make a billion dollars and be acknowledged as a work of art.”
I think the reason no one gave you kudos is because people usually check out on long posts.
Pete – the conclusion has been said by some critics to be “all at once too much and yet not enough” and similar things, but I haven’t heard too much ragging on it compared to the general acceptance yet dissatisfacton that many critics have approached Doubt and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button with. And couldn’t you argue that certain aspects of Batman comics are unfilmable? How many folks argued that the Joker was untouchable after Nicholson (like they’re now saying about Catwoman after Pfeiffer) or that this film was just another comic book movie? Isn’t it equally as legendary what Nolan has done with American mythology?
P.S. Happy early New Year, everybody!
I doubt that “The Dark Knight” will won BP. It won’t. No way. Also it won’t lead the noms because has a very, very distance shot (being honest: zero chances) for Best Adapted Screenplay.
But I’m even more suspicious of the movie absence in the final five nominees list. When I think about who will be nominated/win the majors Oscar, always have in my mind what: it’s not about who (I wish) should win, because most of the times I disagree with the result in the major categories, but how I suppose the Academy branch will vote. Every time I vote for my preferences in Oscar polls with my buddies (we have a bet computadorized system close to the horse races ones), lost money. When in a cold and rational manner, won, by a wide margin.
Forgot: Happy New Year to you all!
It would be truly sad if Benjamin Button gets more Oscar nominations that The Return of the King which was actually regarded as a fine film by the majority of the Academy and the filmgoing public.
A lot of you, except for one, keep leaving out Best Production Design; including Sasha. That could easily be added to TDK and BB’s nominations at least.
I think that TDK will get enough technical support and nominations to get the Best Picture nominee. Besides, I honestly can’t see anyone voting for Frost/Nixon, Doubt, Revolutionary Road, or (sorry) The Wrestler higher then TDK. I see Slumdog Millionaire getting more votes…I honestly see BB and TDK going 50/50 in votes, due to the luke warm reviews that BB has gotten. I can also see TDK slightly edging out Milk with votes as well. Wall*E, however…no clue.
But if BB wins best picture, with it’s 73% on Rottentomatoes, that would be pretty sad for the year. I see it leading in nominations, with TDK second; but Slumdog Millionaire ultimately winning, for better or worse.
Again, Slumdog Millionaire, Benjamin Button, and The Dark Knight as the major three. Can’t understand any of the other films getting ahead of those three. But then again, I can’t understand the good odds for Benjamin Button.
William,
Again, Slumdog Millionaire, Benjamin Button, and The Dark Knight as the major three.
Even though I haven’t seen Slumdog yet, I have to agree with you on that (and I’m sure I still will once I see it). A couple months ago I would’ve included Revolutionary Road and Milk (the latter still most likely a strong possibility) on that list, its funny how things can change so much!
@ William:
“A lot of you, except for one, keep leaving out Best Production Design; including Sasha. That could easily be added to TDK and BB’s nominations at least.”
FYI: Best Art Direction = Best Production Design
I do think that BB will end up with the most noms, but not more than LOTR.
I really hope SLUMDOG has a chance to win Best Picture, but I was persuaded by an earlier caller calling it this year’s SIDEWAYS.
The Dark Knight, Milk, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and Slumdog Millionnaire are definite best pic noms. The last spot would be between Frost/Nixon (it’s election year), Wall-E (a movie beloved like Babe), Gran Torino (the Academy loves Clint).
Watch TDK become the frontrunner once the noms for the other
guilds come out.
My fearless forecast:
TDK for Best Picture and Van Sant for Best Director
@ Karen
THE DARK KNIGHT is a very good film, but there is always the film that gets snubbed. And I think it’s just the film to get snubbed.
And I don’t get the LORD OF THE RINGS comparisons at all. THE LORD OF THE RINGS had much momentum and there was no way of snubbing it. Actually it had the year’s most nominations (the two first parts of the film were nominated, were great critical successes and still won only minor technical awards!, despit oe the FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING being up for 13 Oscars!!!) and the third part actually had the b.o. status, the critical attention (NYFCC for best film, LAFCA for directing and production esign), it had four Golden Globe awards (incl. best drama and best director) and a SAG nod for ensemble (which it won).
THE DARK KNIGHT – on the other hand – got the LAFCA runner-up for best picture & best director and won best supporting actor. The NYFCC snubbed it. The Globes nominated only Ledger. The SAG nominated Ledger, but snubbed the film for ensemble. Where is the momentum? Actors love Ledger and his performance and nominated him, but if they were to love the film, where is the ensemble nod?
But okay for now. Some Academy members stated that they disliked the film. And we all know how snobbish some voters are. They like to reward the same films again and again.
And let’s see what’s up for best picture:
(1) THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON (12 nods)
It’ll lead the nominations: best picture, directing, adapted screenplay, supporting actress, cinematography, film editing, original score, art direction, costume design, sound mixing, visual effects, make-up (12). I don’t think Pitt will get a nod for what is a really passive performance.
It’s true the film has some detractors, but you all know that the majority of the Academy will fall for it. They love tearjerkers and BUTTON is a great experience.
(2) SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE (6)
I’d say a lock for a nod and a threat for the win. Best Picture, directing, adapted screenplay, cinematography, film editing, original song. I don’t think that Patel can make it into the final five.
(3) FROST/NIXON (5)
The film is absolutely what these voters love. I think it’s getting nominated for best picture, best directing, best actor, best adapted screenplay, best film editing. And eventually a nod for Sheen. Possibly… original score, but I doubt it.
(4) DOUBT (6 or 7, I’d say 6)
I think it’s the film that benefits from the preferential ballot. Some voters (older ones) love this film. It’s great acting vs. very good writing and it has the gravitas it needs to make it into the final five. It can make it in based on prestige alone, which is always a bonus. Many voters won’t see it, but they’ll vote for it because of the cast (Streep!!! Hoffman! Amy Adams!) and the play’s success. I think best picture, best actress, best supporting actor, best supporting actress (Davis), best adapted screenplay and even best costume design or best original score (and possibly Adams) is likely.
(5) MILK
For several reasons:
it got more attention from critics, which always matters. It won the NYFCC for best film, the NBR for best supporting actor. Penn won the LAFCA. And the film got 3 SAG nominations, including ensemble. True, the HFPA snubbed it, but you all know that MILK is the # 1 votes’ type of a film and will benefit from that.
THE DARK KNIGHT comes possibly # 6, but I expect some real love for THE READER. I don’t know why.
I have by now become convinced that TDK will be a BP nominee – despite the comic-book-fantasy-fifth-sequel obstacle. But, Bobby C, a WIN? No, never. Not Star Wars, not E.T., not Raiders of the Lost Ark managed this. And all of these were arguably more original intellectual properties at their time as well as easier to love. TDK is a film that impresses with the depth of its political commentary, but it does not inspire any warm fuzzy feeling – which the Academy still loves despite recent winners being so bleak.
But then these films are signs of their times. You mention the election year. If you want to make the connection between films and politics, as many do, then the Academy’s preference of dark subject matter in recent years makes sense in the Bush era – much like the 70s BPs (during Nixon and Vietnam) were edgy, adult, dark. Now if Obama’s win (which was a lot about his positive, optimistic message) is any indication, the zeitgeist is changing once again and we’re back to more upbeat material. Which gives an edge to Slumdog Millionaire and WALL-E, but definitely not such an unrelentingly dark film as TDK.
Be that as it may, I came to wonder how everybody seems so sure about Frost/Nixon as a certain BP nominee. Isn’t it, in the end, a film that’s made entirely by its lead performance? I still predict it right now, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it didn’t make it in the end.
nomination totals
benjamin button- 11
the dark knight- 8…no best pic
slumdog millionaire-8
milk-7
doubt-7
wall- E- 6
frost/ nixon-3
australia-3
defiance- 3
the wrestler- 3
rachel getting married-2
no clint
no angelina
no brad
winners
pic- ben button
director- fincher, ben button
ad screenplay- slumdog
orig. screenplay- milk
actor–rourke-
actress– streep
sup. actor- ledger
sup. actress- davis
ben button will win 6
slumdog will win 3
doubt will win 2
the dark knight will win 4
the wrestler will win 2
wall -E will win 2
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