Dave Karger has posted his predictions, Kris Tapley, his. The Envelope has up its chart and so it’s looking like:
Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Director
David Fincher
Christopher Nolan
Ron Howard
Gus Van Sant
Danny Boyle
Those are the DGA and PGA five that have been locked in for a couple of weeks.
37 Responses for "Predictions Set Around Web"
It obviously won’t be those five for both categories, because that is not what the Academy does. They don’t go so obvious, and they hardly match Picture and Director. But if you don’t want to take a risk, those are the best choices. Now, if you have the guts, you may get the glory once all is said and done.
I think now that everyone is predicting these 5, one of them won’t make it. I think that will be Frost/Nixon.
Interesting. I agree with Gustavo that it is a little unlikely that the DGA, PGA and AMPAS will match up with one another so flawlessly.
Gran Torino to upset!
No guts, no glory!
Here are my predictions!
http://thefilmstage.com/2009/01/20/oscar-predictions/
You people need to stop thinking you know what the Academy does!!!! More than likely the predictable line-up is what will be shown on Thursday!!!
Like last year? And the year before?
I think four in the list deserves noms…
I have a feeling Milk will be shut out somehow. Wall-E for Best Pic, Gus Van Sant for Best Director
I would give my left nut if the take out frost/nixon and include Revolutionary road
No Nut No Glory
I have a strange feeling Jonathan Demme will sneak in to get the lone director nod if they do decide not to match up this year too, but it’s not impossible for the Best Picture nominess to match with their director. A lone nominee doesn’t always need to happen. 2005 anyone.
I also think Milk is more vulnerable than people think.
@ Waltizzle!!!
What do you mean, ‘you people’?
*raises an eyebrow*
Agree with Strange#9! Everyone is predicting “Slumdog” as a lock, that “TDK” has a strong possibility to be in (I havoe no doubt about it), that maybe “Gran Torino” will be amog the top five, and among favorites, “Frost/Nixon” and “Benjamin Button” could be snubbed, one or the another. Not too many people are predicting a “Milk” snub in BP nominees. And that can happen.
I’ve considered predicting a Milk snub, but I don’t know. I can only imagine the shitstorm…plus enough people really love it.
@Dr. Strangelove
A “Milk” snub will not result in anything like the real shitstorm that will happen if “The Dark Knight” is snubbed. I’m not even going to come to this page if it’s not nominated. The screaming will be deafening.
This is my 46th Oscar ceremony. I learned a long time ago there is no such thing as a “lock” until the nominations are announced and the envelope is opened.
If Milk is snubbed, there will be anger and tears from real live people who are tired of being maligned and need something, even as small as a film chronicling their struggles, to hold onto after a tough year of political and social smearing. Boycotts and angry letters will follow.
If Dark Knight is snubbed online fanboys will rant and rave with blogs and youtube videos about the cruelty of the system. Over-eating and banding together on Facebook’s “One Million Strong Against the Oscars” will follow.
I think Milk wins the “shitstorm” this time.
Wild prediction: Brad Pitt for ‘Burn After Reading” in Supporting.
“If Milk is snubbed, there will be anger and tears from real live people who are tired of being maligned and need something, even as small as a film chronicling their struggles, to hold onto after a tough year of political and social smearing. Boycotts and angry letters will follow.
I think Milk wins the “shitstorm” this time.”
“Brokeback Mountain” helped us (yes, myself included) learn to expect nothing from AMPAS. Compared to the other indignities the LGBT community has endured the past few months, AMPAS is chump change. “Milk” doesn’t have nearly the critical support that “Brokeback Mountain” did going into the nominations – not to mention that “Milk” hasn’t come close to opening wide prior to nominations.
Will I be disappointed if “Milk” isn’t nominated? Absolutely. Surprised or shocked? Not in the least. This is AMPAS we’re talking about.
All of you predicting the Milk snub – have any of you even SEEN the film? Or…are you perhaps threatened that a film like Milk could be on par with your precious TDK?
You fanboys. One and the same.
I disagree which film will recieve a bigger ’shitstorm’ backlash, but I can’t believe people are fighting over this, but here’s my two cents.
Both films have the possibility to draw complaints, but a ‘TDK’ snub will resonate with not just ‘fanboys,’ but mainstream movie fans and middle America. And its second highest gross of all time is proof that more people would be upset.
‘Milk’ snub only offends elite Hollywood, stuffy movie critics and the homosexual community (which I’d feel bad for them for their struggle and emotions). It’s just not a top five movie. I also think ‘Frost/Nixon’ will be snubbed, too.
And Googly Moogly, I’ve seen both movies. ‘The Dark Knight’ will be regarded as a epic and timeless classic that’s near flawless filmmaking. ‘Milk’ is a forgettable bio-pic with memorable and relevant political content, and nothing else. And I’m not a fan boy. I loathe MOST comic movies and horror films.
The whole “TDK nomination is only because of fanboys” is plain STUPID…
i mean… look at frost/nixon… or milk, dout or the reader (all of them great films) BUT are you really saying those films were better that TDK… from a FILM viewer to another… i mean REALLY?????
No Guts No Glory:
Revolutionary Road & Gran Torino to upset in BP category.
(I also think both Clint and Leo will get Best Actor nods).
I’m not sure what people are talking about above. Milk got some of the best reviews out of any movie this season. All over the country. Not just on the east and west coast. And not just from elite critics. Unfortunately it’s barely been seen by most of the country, though. If it does get a BP nomination, I hope more people get to see it.
If “Milk” gets a Best Picture nomination (again, I hope it does – it was my favorite film this year) – Focus is planning to open wide with it on January 30. I hope people do see it and realize it transcends the “biopic” label. It is anything but a “forgettable” film.
There are too many other specialty films going wide this weekend – and going wide on the 30th was retractable after the nominations should it not be nominated. Those locked into going wide this weekend are taking a flier on whether they get nominations or not. Focus is playing safe with their P&A. It’s only smart business.
Agreed, “Milk” was simply fantastic.
MILK will get nominated.
If anything, the prediction slate at top of the page is what I believe will happen.
Yes, yes, only ‘elite’ people care about stories showing the struggle for human rights, got it. *rolls eyes*
“Milk’ snub only offends elite Hollywood, stuffy movie critics and the homosexual community (which I’d feel bad for them for their struggle and emotions).”
I’d respond to that, but I’m too busy laughing to the point of tears, because if I don’t laugh, the condescension in that last line will gall me to death.
Re: TDK: “And its second highest gross of all time is proof that more people would be upset.”
That’s assuming that all those folks would give a damn about the oscar nominations. They simply wouldn’t. Oh, many are more likely to tune in to the telecast if it gets nommed, no question about that, but get pitchfork-wielding mad if it isn’t? Nuh-uh.
I think the hard-core TDK folk (not the majority of people who saw it, who likely loved the film, but wouldn’t, y’know, write about it on movie blogs or sacrifice babies for it or anything…) would make more noise with CAPITAL LETTERS with a TDK snub, that’s for sure.
Milk fanboys=TDK fanboys
I find it amusing that these TDK fanatics have the gull to call out a film like “Milk”…lol.
Seriously, what do you have to gain from it?
Profit!
“Milk fanboys=TDK fanboys”
Well, I have to grudgingly admit that there is some truth in that.
Both factions (this can apply to most films out this year, or any year, really), like and grasp onto elements of the film that appeal to them the most. For myself, it’s the very story of Harvey Milk, finally told in a fictional film, the sensational acting, the distinct Van Sant-y elements (toned down but still affective), the production design, and so on.
So I’m happily blinded by those things, and don’t pay as much attention to the things that didn’t work as well. Way of the world…
Either way, I’m leaving town for a few days, and will blissfully have no access to the net or a tv, so I won’t celebrate/gripe about the noms until Saturday at the earliest. : D
I got nothing against MILK. I like skim, 2%, butter…
Now my problem with SLUMDOG is some folks on the Net going silly in supporting, mostly it seems for because it made them feel good* and makes a statement against poverty or whatever sillyness.
NOTHING THAT I SEE about how its the best movie of the year. Now if you prefer SLUMDOG over TDK, fine that’s cool.
I mean, as I wrote in my NETFLIXING list, why is it that at Oscar season, reasonably smart and logical folks with good taste go fucking stupid with retarded logic in their argumentation for why their movie should win.
Hell, even TDK has been a victim of such nonsense, like:
(1) “It’s #2 hit ever, and #1 hit of year!”
With that logic, the best movie of 2004 is SHREK 2. Fuck that!
(2) “For Heath!”
Why? I doubt right now that he physically cares one way or another about the Oscars, because he’s DEAD.**
(3) “It says something about Today!”
Just because it makes commentary, doesn’t mean it’s necessarily “good” commentary. I think TDK was a nice dramatic response or consequence of the Dubya Years, but that’s my opinion, which doesn’t equal FACT. But it should.
(4) “All those other movies are Oscar bait!”
Perhaps so, but I liked BENJAMIN BUTTON. Not as good as TDK, or Fincher’s ZODIAC for that matter, but hey David Fincher made another worth-watching quality picture. FROST/NIXON at least has a really good screenplay, and oh yeah I’m sure Mickey Rourke*** hit a homerun with THE WRESTLER.
Hell, SLUMDOG could very well end up being a really good movie. I haven’t seen it, so for all I know I might ultimately apologize for being such a bitch over this.
*=Want that in 5 minutes without paying $8 and 2 hours? It’s called Valium.
**=Unless you believe in Heaven, then he’s right now trying to politely tell James Dean that he aint interested in a dinner date, even if Dean was a big BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN fan.
***=Go rent ANGEL HEART, and tell me with assureness that he can’t.
RRA, have you started taking angel dust in the last week? All of a sudden your posts are crammed with caps and asterisks.
No SIR!*
*=Err what?
*snort*
I reckon the reader will be a Best Pic upset and take out Frost/Nixon but Howard will still get the Directing nom. If the Dark Knight was snubbed people would be angry but will get over it and some of the fans wouldn’t care if it got nominated or not. I would like to see it nominated but if it is it is so unlikely it would win Best Pic, if it did I think that would be an upset to many.
Slumdog is surely in. People say there is no lock is silly, some movies are certain nominees, you can’t deny that.
Clint Eastwood’s performance in Gran Torino is the best performance of the year.
I think people are seriously underestimating the power of Wall-E in the best picture race, separate animated category or no. THAT’s the kind of movie people will pick as number 1 on their ballots. And we have to remember that it wasn’t eligible in a lot of the guild awards that we’re all using as indicators.
I think Wall-E will be the film that gets a Best Pic nod but no director nod. I see the Best Pic lineup as this:
Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk (or Frost/Nixon)
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
Personally, I’d be tickled to death to see Wall-E in there, and I’d be rooting for it to win.
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