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Predictions Set Around Web

Posted by Sasha Stone On January - 20 - 2009

Dave Karger has posted his predictions, Kris Tapley, his.  The Envelope has up its chart and so it’s looking like:

Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

Director
David Fincher
Christopher Nolan
Ron Howard
Gus Van Sant
Danny Boyle

Those are the DGA and PGA five that have been locked in for a couple of weeks.

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    37 Responses for "Predictions Set Around Web"

    1. Gustavo Silva January 20th, 2009 at 5:48 pm 1

      It obviously won’t be those five for both categories, because that is not what the Academy does. They don’t go so obvious, and they hardly match Picture and Director. But if you don’t want to take a risk, those are the best choices. Now, if you have the guts, you may get the glory once all is said and done.

    2. dan January 20th, 2009 at 6:07 pm 2

      I think now that everyone is predicting these 5, one of them won’t make it. I think that will be Frost/Nixon.

    3. Alexander Coleman January 20th, 2009 at 6:08 pm 3

      Interesting. I agree with Gustavo that it is a little unlikely that the DGA, PGA and AMPAS will match up with one another so flawlessly.

    4. W. January 20th, 2009 at 6:16 pm 4

      Gran Torino to upset!

      No guts, no glory!

    5. Jordan Raup January 20th, 2009 at 6:24 pm 5

      Here are my predictions!

      http://thefilmstage.com/2009/01/20/oscar-predictions/

    6. Waltizzle!!! January 20th, 2009 at 6:30 pm 6

      You people need to stop thinking you know what the Academy does!!!! More than likely the predictable line-up is what will be shown on Thursday!!!

    7. Gustavo Silva January 20th, 2009 at 6:35 pm 7

      Like last year? And the year before? :)

    8. Flapp January 20th, 2009 at 6:36 pm 8

      I think four in the list deserves noms…

    9. Strange January 20th, 2009 at 6:49 pm 9

      I have a feeling Milk will be shut out somehow. Wall-E for Best Pic, Gus Van Sant for Best Director

    10. sonnymoscoso January 20th, 2009 at 6:50 pm 10

      I would give my left nut if the take out frost/nixon and include Revolutionary road

      No Nut No Glory

    11. JR January 20th, 2009 at 6:56 pm 11

      I have a strange feeling Jonathan Demme will sneak in to get the lone director nod if they do decide not to match up this year too, but it’s not impossible for the Best Picture nominess to match with their director. A lone nominee doesn’t always need to happen. 2005 anyone.

      I also think Milk is more vulnerable than people think.

    12. Nick K. January 20th, 2009 at 7:23 pm 12

      @ Waltizzle!!!

      What do you mean, ‘you people’?

      *raises an eyebrow*

    13. Joao Mattos January 20th, 2009 at 7:34 pm 13

      Agree with Strange#9! Everyone is predicting “Slumdog” as a lock, that “TDK” has a strong possibility to be in (I havoe no doubt about it), that maybe “Gran Torino” will be amog the top five, and among favorites, “Frost/Nixon” and “Benjamin Button” could be snubbed, one or the another. Not too many people are predicting a “Milk” snub in BP nominees. And that can happen.

    14. Dr. Strangelove January 20th, 2009 at 7:41 pm 14

      I’ve considered predicting a Milk snub, but I don’t know. I can only imagine the shitstorm…plus enough people really love it.

    15. Lee January 20th, 2009 at 7:51 pm 15

      @Dr. Strangelove

      A “Milk” snub will not result in anything like the real shitstorm that will happen if “The Dark Knight” is snubbed. I’m not even going to come to this page if it’s not nominated. The screaming will be deafening.

      This is my 46th Oscar ceremony. I learned a long time ago there is no such thing as a “lock” until the nominations are announced and the envelope is opened.

    16. JP January 20th, 2009 at 8:32 pm 16

      If Milk is snubbed, there will be anger and tears from real live people who are tired of being maligned and need something, even as small as a film chronicling their struggles, to hold onto after a tough year of political and social smearing. Boycotts and angry letters will follow.

      If Dark Knight is snubbed online fanboys will rant and rave with blogs and youtube videos about the cruelty of the system. Over-eating and banding together on Facebook’s “One Million Strong Against the Oscars” will follow.

      I think Milk wins the “shitstorm” this time.

    17. ML January 20th, 2009 at 8:34 pm 17

      Wild prediction: Brad Pitt for ‘Burn After Reading” in Supporting.

    18. Lee January 20th, 2009 at 8:54 pm 18

      “If Milk is snubbed, there will be anger and tears from real live people who are tired of being maligned and need something, even as small as a film chronicling their struggles, to hold onto after a tough year of political and social smearing. Boycotts and angry letters will follow.

      I think Milk wins the “shitstorm” this time.”

      “Brokeback Mountain” helped us (yes, myself included) learn to expect nothing from AMPAS. Compared to the other indignities the LGBT community has endured the past few months, AMPAS is chump change. “Milk” doesn’t have nearly the critical support that “Brokeback Mountain” did going into the nominations – not to mention that “Milk” hasn’t come close to opening wide prior to nominations.

      Will I be disappointed if “Milk” isn’t nominated? Absolutely. Surprised or shocked? Not in the least. This is AMPAS we’re talking about.

    19. Googly Moogly January 20th, 2009 at 9:32 pm 19

      All of you predicting the Milk snub – have any of you even SEEN the film? Or…are you perhaps threatened that a film like Milk could be on par with your precious TDK?

      You fanboys. One and the same.

    20. Kenny January 20th, 2009 at 10:16 pm 20

      I disagree which film will recieve a bigger ’shitstorm’ backlash, but I can’t believe people are fighting over this, but here’s my two cents.

      Both films have the possibility to draw complaints, but a ‘TDK’ snub will resonate with not just ‘fanboys,’ but mainstream movie fans and middle America. And its second highest gross of all time is proof that more people would be upset.

      ‘Milk’ snub only offends elite Hollywood, stuffy movie critics and the homosexual community (which I’d feel bad for them for their struggle and emotions). It’s just not a top five movie. I also think ‘Frost/Nixon’ will be snubbed, too.

      And Googly Moogly, I’ve seen both movies. ‘The Dark Knight’ will be regarded as a epic and timeless classic that’s near flawless filmmaking. ‘Milk’ is a forgettable bio-pic with memorable and relevant political content, and nothing else. And I’m not a fan boy. I loathe MOST comic movies and horror films.

    21. el_barto January 20th, 2009 at 10:33 pm 21

      The whole “TDK nomination is only because of fanboys” is plain STUPID…
      i mean… look at frost/nixon… or milk, dout or the reader (all of them great films) BUT are you really saying those films were better that TDK… from a FILM viewer to another… i mean REALLY?????

    22. Kitch_man January 20th, 2009 at 10:51 pm 22

      No Guts No Glory:

      Revolutionary Road & Gran Torino to upset in BP category.

      (I also think both Clint and Leo will get Best Actor nods).

    23. daveylow January 20th, 2009 at 10:56 pm 23

      I’m not sure what people are talking about above. Milk got some of the best reviews out of any movie this season. All over the country. Not just on the east and west coast. And not just from elite critics. Unfortunately it’s barely been seen by most of the country, though. If it does get a BP nomination, I hope more people get to see it.

    24. Lee January 20th, 2009 at 11:10 pm 24

      If “Milk” gets a Best Picture nomination (again, I hope it does – it was my favorite film this year) – Focus is planning to open wide with it on January 30. I hope people do see it and realize it transcends the “biopic” label. It is anything but a “forgettable” film.

      There are too many other specialty films going wide this weekend – and going wide on the 30th was retractable after the nominations should it not be nominated. Those locked into going wide this weekend are taking a flier on whether they get nominations or not. Focus is playing safe with their P&A. It’s only smart business.

    25. Kitch_man January 20th, 2009 at 11:28 pm 25

      Agreed, “Milk” was simply fantastic.

    26. Barrack Hussein RRA January 20th, 2009 at 11:35 pm 26

      MILK will get nominated.

      If anything, the prediction slate at top of the page is what I believe will happen.

    27. Marty-O January 21st, 2009 at 12:28 am 27

      Yes, yes, only ‘elite’ people care about stories showing the struggle for human rights, got it. *rolls eyes*

      “Milk’ snub only offends elite Hollywood, stuffy movie critics and the homosexual community (which I’d feel bad for them for their struggle and emotions).”

      I’d respond to that, but I’m too busy laughing to the point of tears, because if I don’t laugh, the condescension in that last line will gall me to death.

      Re: TDK: “And its second highest gross of all time is proof that more people would be upset.”

      That’s assuming that all those folks would give a damn about the oscar nominations. They simply wouldn’t. Oh, many are more likely to tune in to the telecast if it gets nommed, no question about that, but get pitchfork-wielding mad if it isn’t? Nuh-uh.

      I think the hard-core TDK folk (not the majority of people who saw it, who likely loved the film, but wouldn’t, y’know, write about it on movie blogs or sacrifice babies for it or anything…) would make more noise with CAPITAL LETTERS with a TDK snub, that’s for sure. :P

    28. chrisw January 21st, 2009 at 12:54 am 28

      Milk fanboys=TDK fanboys

    29. Kitch_man January 21st, 2009 at 1:02 am 29

      I find it amusing that these TDK fanatics have the gull to call out a film like “Milk”…lol.

      Seriously, what do you have to gain from it?

    30. Gentle Benj January 21st, 2009 at 1:04 am 30

      Profit!

    31. Marty-O January 21st, 2009 at 1:17 am 31

      “Milk fanboys=TDK fanboys”

      Well, I have to grudgingly admit that there is some truth in that.

      Both factions (this can apply to most films out this year, or any year, really), like and grasp onto elements of the film that appeal to them the most. For myself, it’s the very story of Harvey Milk, finally told in a fictional film, the sensational acting, the distinct Van Sant-y elements (toned down but still affective), the production design, and so on.
      So I’m happily blinded by those things, and don’t pay as much attention to the things that didn’t work as well. Way of the world…

      Either way, I’m leaving town for a few days, and will blissfully have no access to the net or a tv, so I won’t celebrate/gripe about the noms until Saturday at the earliest. : D

    32. Barrack Hussein RRA January 21st, 2009 at 1:20 am 32

      I got nothing against MILK. I like skim, 2%, butter…

      Now my problem with SLUMDOG is some folks on the Net going silly in supporting, mostly it seems for because it made them feel good* and makes a statement against poverty or whatever sillyness.

      NOTHING THAT I SEE about how its the best movie of the year. Now if you prefer SLUMDOG over TDK, fine that’s cool.

      I mean, as I wrote in my NETFLIXING list, why is it that at Oscar season, reasonably smart and logical folks with good taste go fucking stupid with retarded logic in their argumentation for why their movie should win.

      Hell, even TDK has been a victim of such nonsense, like:

      (1) “It’s #2 hit ever, and #1 hit of year!”

      With that logic, the best movie of 2004 is SHREK 2. Fuck that!

      (2) “For Heath!”

      Why? I doubt right now that he physically cares one way or another about the Oscars, because he’s DEAD.**

      (3) “It says something about Today!”

      Just because it makes commentary, doesn’t mean it’s necessarily “good” commentary. I think TDK was a nice dramatic response or consequence of the Dubya Years, but that’s my opinion, which doesn’t equal FACT. But it should. :)

      (4) “All those other movies are Oscar bait!”

      Perhaps so, but I liked BENJAMIN BUTTON. Not as good as TDK, or Fincher’s ZODIAC for that matter, but hey David Fincher made another worth-watching quality picture. FROST/NIXON at least has a really good screenplay, and oh yeah I’m sure Mickey Rourke*** hit a homerun with THE WRESTLER.

      Hell, SLUMDOG could very well end up being a really good movie. I haven’t seen it, so for all I know I might ultimately apologize for being such a bitch over this.

      *=Want that in 5 minutes without paying $8 and 2 hours? It’s called Valium.
      **=Unless you believe in Heaven, then he’s right now trying to politely tell James Dean that he aint interested in a dinner date, even if Dean was a big BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN fan.
      ***=Go rent ANGEL HEART, and tell me with assureness that he can’t.

    33. Gentle Benj January 21st, 2009 at 1:26 am 33

      RRA, have you started taking angel dust in the last week? All of a sudden your posts are crammed with caps and asterisks.

    34. Barack Hussein RRA January 21st, 2009 at 1:30 am 34

      No SIR!*

      *=Err what? :) *snort*

    35. Denton January 21st, 2009 at 3:07 am 35

      I reckon the reader will be a Best Pic upset and take out Frost/Nixon but Howard will still get the Directing nom. If the Dark Knight was snubbed people would be angry but will get over it and some of the fans wouldn’t care if it got nominated or not. I would like to see it nominated but if it is it is so unlikely it would win Best Pic, if it did I think that would be an upset to many.

      Slumdog is surely in. People say there is no lock is silly, some movies are certain nominees, you can’t deny that.

    36. luis January 21st, 2009 at 5:42 am 36

      Clint Eastwood’s performance in Gran Torino is the best performance of the year.

    37. BrockS January 21st, 2009 at 9:29 am 37

      I think people are seriously underestimating the power of Wall-E in the best picture race, separate animated category or no. THAT’s the kind of movie people will pick as number 1 on their ballots. And we have to remember that it wasn’t eligible in a lot of the guild awards that we’re all using as indicators.

      I think Wall-E will be the film that gets a Best Pic nod but no director nod. I see the Best Pic lineup as this:

      Benjamin Button
      The Dark Knight
      Milk (or Frost/Nixon)
      Slumdog Millionaire
      Wall-E

      Personally, I’d be tickled to death to see Wall-E in there, and I’d be rooting for it to win.


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    • 82nd Oscar Ceremony

      Hosts: Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin
      Producers: Adam Shankman, Bill Mechanic
      Director: Hamish Hamilton
      Music: Marc Shaiman

      Quentin Tarantino
      Pedro Almodovar

      Ampas Breakdown

      Actors-1,205
      Producers-462
      Executives-436
      Sound-405
      Writers-382
      Art Directors-373
      Directors-375
      Public Relations-370
      Members at Large-254
      Shorts/Feature Ani-335
      Visual Effects-272
      Music-233
      Editors-227
      Cinematographers-201
      Original Score-234
      Documentary-145
      Makeup-115
      Total Voting Members -approx 5,777


    • 82nd Oscar Ceremony

      Hosts: Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin
      Producers: Adam Shankman, Bill Mechanic
      Director: Hamish Hamilton
      Music: Marc Shaiman

      Quentin Tarantino
      Pedro Almodovar

    • Tuesday, December 1, 2009: Official Screen Credits forms due

      Monday, December 28, 2009: Nominations ballots mailed

      Saturday, January 23, 2010: Nominations polls close 5 p.m. PT

      Tuesday, February 2, 2010: Nominations announced 5:30 a.m. PT, Samuel Goldwyn Theater

      Wednesday, February 10, 2010: Final ballots mailed

      Monday, February 15, 2010: Nominees Luncheon

      Saturday, February 20, 2010: Scientific and Technical Achievement Awards presentation

      Tuesday, March 2, 2010: Final polls close 5 p.m. PT

      Sunday, March 7, 2010: 82nd Annual Academy Awards presentation



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    • Words

      “While I’m obviously not ruling it out, I don’t think Avatar will win Best Picture, and the new preferential voting system is precisely why. Had they stuck with just having each member vote on their favorite of the nominees, it might have won, but something tells me that there are a lot of people within the Academy who are part of the backlash against the film, and will therefore place it at #10 on their ballots. You have to keep in mind that from now on, the movie with the most #1 votes is not necessarily the movie that wins. It’s easy to imagine Avatar will get a lot of #1 votes, but it’s equally easy to imagine it will get a lot of #10 votes as well, and that will really hurt it.

      So you kind of have to think more along the lines of which movie will have the least against it, rather than the most for it. The Hurt Locker will undoubtedly get a lot of #1 votes as it is the frontrunner, and while I’m sure there will be those who put it at or near the bottom of their ballots, it seems to me that it will have a lot less low-end placements than Avatar will, and so The Hurt Locker easily has the edge over Avatar in that respect.

      Inglourious Basterds also seems like the kind of movie that will split voters. It’ll get a lot of #1 and #2 votes, but probably also a lot of #9 and #10 votes. So I don’t think it’ll win (though again, I’m not ruling it out). Precious will probably get less 9’s and 10’s, but I frankly don’t think it will get enough 1’s and 2’s to pull off a win. I think it’ll get mostly mid-range votes. Same goes for Up in the Air, though I imagine even that will get more 1’s and 2’s than Precious will.

      So to sum it up, I think The Hurt Locker, while not an absolute, no-turning-back lock, is still the clear frontrunner in this race. If we’re talking about a potential upset though, why not really factor in the new preferential voting system and try to imagine how much that could end up benefiting a film like, say, Up? While it might not get too many #1 votes, I can easily see it getting a lot of 2-4 votes, and who know? If the frontrunners all develop strong enough backlashes, then it could be that this year’s Best Picture will go not to the movie that is the most liked, but rather the movie that is the least DISliked. Just saying.”
      by Jean-Paul
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    • Contender Tracker

      Awards So Far

      NBR Winner+
      /top ten*
      LAFCA Winner+
      BFCA Critics Choice Win+/Nominee*
      NYFCC Winner +/*
      SEFCA Winners+/*
      Golden Globes Nominee+/*
      SAG Winner+/Nominee*
      National Society of Film Critics winners+
      Producers Guild Winner+/Nominees*
      Directors Guild Winners+/Nominees*
      Art Directors Guild Nominees*
      Writers Guild Nominees*
      American Cinematographers Society*
      American Cinema Editors*
      Cinema Audio Society*
      BAFTA Nominations*


      Best Picture
      The Hurt Locker*+++**+++******
      Avatar*+********
      Inglourious Basterds***+****
      Up in the Air+*+*******
      Precious******
      District 9*****
      A Serious Man*****
      An Education*****
      Up****
      The Blind Side

      Best Actor
      Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart++++*
      George Clooney, Up in the Air+*++***
      Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker**+*
      Colin Firth, A Single Man****
      Morgan Freeman, Invictus+***

      Best Actress
      Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side+++
      Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia++++**
      Carey Mulligan, An Education+****
      Gabby Sidibe, Precious****
      Helen Mirren, The Last Station**

      Best Supporting Actor
      Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds+++++++*
      Woody Harrelson,The Messenger+***
      Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones****
      Matt Damon, Invictus***
      Christopher Plummer, The Last Station*

      Best Supporting Actress
      Mo'Nique, Precious+*+++++*
      Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air+****
      Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air****
      Penelope Cruz, Nine**
      Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart

      Best Director
      Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker++++*++*
      Jim Cameron, Avatar*+**
      Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds****
      Jason Reitman, Up in the Air***
      Lee Daniels, Precious**

      Best Original Screenplay
      Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds+*
      Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man+*+*
      Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker***
      Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Up*
      Oren Moverman, Alessandro Camo The Messenger

      Best Adapted Screenplay
      Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air+++++*
      Armando Iannucci, In the Loop+
      Geoffrey Fletcher, Precious**
      Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell, District 9**
      Nick Hornby, An Education*

      Best Editing

      Stephen Rivkin, John Refoua, James Cameron, Avatar+**
      Chris Innis, Bob Murawski, The Hurt Locker***
      Julian Clarke, District 9**
      Joe Klotz, Precious
      Sally Menke, Inglourious Basterds**

      Best Cinematography
      Mauro Fiore, Avatar+**
      Christian Berger, White Ribbon+++*
      Barry Ackroyd, The Hurt Locker***
      Robert Richardson, Inglourious Basterds***
      Bruno Delbonnel, Harry Potter

      Best Art Direction

      Avatar+**
      Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus*
      Nine*
      Sherlock Holmes
      The Young Victoria

      Best Sound Mixing

      Avatar+**
      The Hurt Locker***
      Star Trek* **
      Inglourious Basterds
      Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen*

      Best Sound Editing

      Avatar
      The Hurt Locker
      Up
      Star Trek
      Inglourious Basterds

      Best Costume Design
      Sandy Powell, The Young Victoria +*
      Catherine Leterrier,Coco Avant Chanel*
      Janet Patterson, Bright Star**
      Colleen Atwood, Nine*
      Monique Prudhomme, The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus

      Best Original Score
      Michael Giacchino, Up+*
      Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders, The Hurt Locker!
      James Horner, Avatar*
      Alexandre Desplat, The Fantastic Mr. Fox
      Hans Zimmer, Sherlock Holmes*

      Best Foreign Language Film (submissions)

      A Prophet, France+*
      The White Ribbon, Germany**
      El Secreto de Sus Ojos, Argentina
      Ajami, Israel
      The Milk of Sorrow, Pru


      Best Documentary Feature

      The Cove++**+
      Food, Inc.**
      The Beaches of Agnes++*
      Burma VJ*
      The Most Dangerous Man in America
      Which Way Home


      Best Animated Feature
      Up+++**
      The Fantastic Mr. Fox+*+***
      Coraline****
      The Princess and the Frog***
      The Secret of Kells

      Best Visual Effects

      Avatar+*
      District 9* *
      Star Trek**

      Best Makeup

      The Young Victoria**
      Star Trek*

      Il Divo*


      Best Song
      The Weary Kind – T Bone Burnett, Ryan Bingham, Crazy Heart ++
      Down in New Orleans, The Princess and the Frog
      Almost There – Randy Newman, The Princess And The Frog***
      Loin de Paname, Paris 36

      Best Live Action Short
      The Door
      Instead of Abracadabra
      Kavi
      Miracle Fish
      The New Tenants


      Best Animated Short
      French Roast
      Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty
      The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte)
      Logorama
      A Matter of Loaf and Death


      Best Documentary Short

      China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province
      The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner
      The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant
      Music by Prudence
      Rabbit a la Berlin