This weekend, Saturday night, the DGA Awards will honor Danny Boyle, Christopher Nolan, David Fincher, Ron Howard and Gus Van Sant. There probably isn’t much to write about here as Boyle has this one in the bag. He has it so much in the bag, in fact, that I don’t even think I’ll run predictions because what would be the point.
The DGA winner almost always goes on to win the Oscar. There have been a few rare instances here and there, enough so that if there is any slippage at all it’s possible it will be seen in the director category. I’m thinking about when Roman Polanski beat Rob Marshall, or Steven Soderbergh beat Ridley Scott. Actually, weirdly enough the Crouching Tiger year Ang Lee won Best Director at the DGAs, Gladiator won Best Picture and Steven Soderbergh, of all people, won Best Director for Traffic, not Erin Brockovich.
When there is a picture/director mismatch, the DGA director will, more often than not, still go on to win the Oscar for Best Director. That is in a year where there is some disagreement going in – - this is not one of those years. In fact, that Slumdog won the SAG and the PGA pretty much cements it. The actors, by all rights, should have picked a film like Doubt or Benjamin Button, where it was an ensemble piece of well known Hollywood actors. But they liked it enough to give it the top prize – that is some seriously unshakable love there.
If Danny Boyle wasn’t winning on Saturday night who would be there to take his place? Christopher Nolan’s win would be unprecedented, I’m fairly certain. So that leaves Gus Van Sant, David Fincher, Ron Howard. It ain’t going to be Ron Howard so that leaves Van Sant or Fincher. I would give the edge to Fincher because of the number of Oscar nominations the film received.
Either way, Danny Boyle is winning on Saturday.
66 Responses for "The Great Five"
Danny Boyle is such a versatile director. He doesn’t get enough credit for that. He deserves to win.
Yeah, Danny Boyle’s win is about as locked in as these things ever get. But while there are no major surprises on the horizon, at least Boyle is deserving, in my opinion.
But I still cannot wrap my head around the exclusion of Darren Aronofsky from this batch of nominees. I saw The Wrestler for a second time last night and was once again completely floored by its power. The idea of Aronofsky being out and Ron Howard being in continues to boggle my mind.
Another reminder of the Academy’s failure to recognize Christopher Nolan’s genius.
Yes, Boyle likely has it in the bag (deservedly so IMHO), but I wouldn’t be surprised if Fincher won it. If anything, it would make the race a little more interesting.
I’d like to believe it’s not so certain. I hope “Milk” or “Benjamin Button” is able to sneak up on it and take it, as I think Van Sant’s and Fincher’s works are superior.
*Crosses fingers*
I also don’t think “Slumdog” is in the same position as “No Country” last year, as much as it seems. I think they’re fairly close, as both movies pretty much swept everything, but I get the sense there’s some sliding space in there where things can still shift…
I know all the love right now is with Danny Boyle & Slumdog (even if you haven’t paid attention to the race like us here on AD had would know that) but what makes Boyle the slamdunk winner. And why isn’t it a closer race with Fincher (who imvho out directed anybody in ‘08).
I’m sure the likability factor is playing a hand in Boyle’s slam dunk status but will Boyle’s work really stand up 10 yrs from now the way Fincher’s technical innovation will stand the test of time. Slumdog will only find longevity by being a Best Picture winner. Neither The Dark Knight or Curious Case needs that. Films that stand on their own without the necessary awards merit.
Slumdog is a lock for both director and picture. I agree the sag win pretty much sealed the deal. If it can win an award for acting ensemble which is not one of its strong point, director and picture is in the bag. if it wins the eddie, it’s all over.
It will be a bigger upset than Brokeback mountain at this point. BM lost the sag and it was more of an ensemble film Slumdog. It has won every major award and it will definately clean house at the BAFTAs.
Just because I can, and want this to happen, I’m putting in a guess that Nolan wins. Simply because he wasn’t nominated at the academy (which i believe is the biggest snub this year) and i’d LOVE to see him win the DGA, if just for spite.
Boyle’s work will stand the test of time because it’s a fine entry into the canon of one of the best directors around right now. Is it his masterpiece? No. But is it a solid piece of filmmaking? Absolutely. I was not a fan of Benjamin Button, but like Boyle, Fincher is an auteur and an excellent one at that. Both films will live on regardless of Oscar night.
I thought Nolan did the best job this year, but I guess that Oscar ship has sailed.
Boyle will win the DGA and the Oscar. The upset will be in Best Picture. The Reader will win.
If Fincher does win the DGA on Saturday, TCCOBB instantly becomes the Oscar frontrunner.
LoL The Reader can not win Best Picture are you forgetting about one of the strongest indicators if a film has a shot to win Best Picture it has to be nominated for Best Editing. Only nine films since 1934. History has spoken.
Frost/Nixon has no shot either.
Roll call: 3. Milk, 2. TCCOBB, 1. Slumdog.
Has the DGA ever had a tie for best director?
And I actually think the film that has the second best chance to win BP is not BB but Milk.
Either Van Sant or Nolan should get it. Van Sant because he did, in my opinion, a brilliant job. Or Nolan just to send a collective fuck you to the Academy. Then again, I was hoping the same would happen with the PGA, but it didn’t. But hey, a guy can dream, right?
” if a film has a shot to win Best Picture it has to be nominated for Best Editing.”
i didn’t know that. may be the brokeback mountain snub would have been less of a shock.
The “science” of ocsar prediction is fun. Too bad it is not taught in school.
Only 10 films (12.5%) have won Best Picture without any acting nominations:
2003 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
1995 Braveheart
1987 The Last Emperor
1958 Gigi
1956 Around the World in 80 Days
1952 The Greatest Show on Earth
1951 An American in Paris
1931-32 Grand Hotel
1929-30 All Quiet on the Western Front
1927-28 Wings
While 8 films (10%) have won without an editing nomination:
1980 Ordinary People
1977 Annie Hall
1974 The Godfather, Part II
1966 A Man for All Seasons
1963 Tom Jones
1955 Marty
1948 Hamlet
1937 The Life of Emile Zola
That pretty much puts “The Reader” and “Slumdog Millionaire” at very close to the same odds.
Which in essence then gives “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” “Frost/Nixon,” and “Milk” better shots at winning.
That’s if you look at it at a purely statistically historic perspective.
By the way, I’ve developed a formula based soley upon the Oscar nominations that a film receives and using Best Picture nominees since 1944 (when 5 nominees became the standard) it correctly picks the winner about 94% of the time.
For this year’s nominees, “The Curious Case of Benjamin” has a very, very, very, very slight lead over “Slumdog Millionaire” – but “Milk” is ahead of them both…
@ The Z
Are you willing to share your formula? What is this 94% accurate confluence of nominations?
I honestly think Milk has a good chance of upsetting Slumdog Millionaire. What a fun miracle that would be.
DGA could go to Nolan, and I think it just might. And it wouldn’t be unprecedented Wouldn’t you know it, Ron Howard won the DGA for Apollo 13…and he wasn’t even nominated by the Academy!!! I know I am talking crazy, but I hope Nolan wins it because he deserves it.
I would really like to hear The Z’s formula.
This is not “the great five.”
Subtract Ron Howard and replace him with Darren Aronofsky, and you will have your great five.
Come on guys, how fantastic is The Fountain? No love, no love.
call me crazy,I really think Fincher could win here…
Yes, Fincher definitely has a good chance here.
I’m pretty sure Z’s formula is, “most noms (with most acting noms)=BP win” There are some exceptions, obviously.
which is a stupid formula, by the way. I pray that is not it.
What is up with people thinking Danny won’t win? Come the hell on people, stop being so delusional! First you thought that Slumdog probably wouldn’t win PGA, then you thought the SAG was completely out of the way. Stop being so ridiculously idiotic, please.
I was totally against Slumdog winning best picture, directing, etc., in fact I wanted the whole cast and crew to die, except little Jamal, but after seeing the pictures of the cast in Mumbai and seeing how happy they all are has changed my mind. I hope they win everything, except score, song, and anything its nominated against the The Dark Knight. They deserve it. They didnt make a movie with the sole purpose to win Oscars, like TCCOBB or The Wrestler; they made a movie with heart and passion for the masses.
Funnily enough I did predict Soderbergh correctly in 2000… and I was 9
.
If there was no Slumdog, the top 5 would include either WALL·E or Doubt. And instead of Boyle we’d have Aronofsky.
The winners would’ve been Benjamin Button and the gfreat Stephen Daldry.
It’s The Reader vs. Slumdog competition for BP.
Oddly, both films are pro-literacy.
Bernando
I was 9 too!! But I incorrectly guessed Ridley Scott would take the prize. That’s naivete for you, I guess.
I wouldn’t be upset if Boyle won. I just want some energy injected into this race. And I think, besides Chris Nolan, Daren Arronofsky was robbed (again). That guy really has a lot of talent.
The formula only considers Oscar nominations – no precursors, no guilds, etc. And it tends to get complicated and requires some basic algebra and statistics knowledge.
With the formula, each Best Picture nominee has a “value” – this is mainly based upon the number of nominations a Best Picture nominee has compared with the nominations of the other nominees.
In addition, each other Oscar category is weighted based on which Best Picture nominees are represented in that category. In essence, the more Best Picture nominees in a category thusly gives that category more weight.
Also, some categories are more important for a nominee than others, i.e. a director nomination is worth more than a make-up nomination. These categories – director, acting, editing, screenplay – are given extra value and are then weighted accordingly to which Best Picture nominees are in that particular category.
I’d get into more specifics but I still consider it a work-in-progress – plus, once it gets out it’ll probably become obsolete. I will say that the formula helped me pick “Crash” in 2005 in a few pools and pocket a lot of money.
I LOVE Fincher…but TCCOBB is one of his worst films. Good looking? YES. But shallow, distant and unimportant.
Boyle WILL and SHOULD win.
Here’s hoping the ridiculous love for TCCOBB is over shadowed by a continued SLUMDOG sweep at the DGA and THE OSCARS!
Slumdog should end FEB with the PGA, DGA, SAG…and 7 Oscars (Pic, Dir, Script, Cine, Edit, Song, Score).
ALL HAIL THE SLUMDOG!
(((ESPECIALLY SINCE NOT ON OF THE NEXT 4 BEST OF 2008 ARE NOMINATED – Dark Knight, Wrestler, Rachel Getting Married, In Bruges)))
Spielberg also won the DGA for The Color Purple with no corresponding director nomination from the Academy.
I snicker at the comments that state there is no suspense in the OSCAR race. Heck I have even thought it myself but I am smart enough to know that until the envelope is opened anything can happen. This said, I have become a “Slumdog” fan this year and I hope Boyle wins the DGA and his pic goes on to win Best Pic. After all I can only think of one time when one pic :LA Confidential: won every critics groups Best pic award except one before OSCAR night (I could be wrong) and went on to lose to “Titanic” because Titanic had become so big it couldn’t be ignored. I would like to add that I know that SM hasn’t won all the critics awards best pic thus far. As a matter of fact LAC only won one award. Screenplay. But no film is there to challenge SM as such this year as SLumdog could by OSCAR night be the boxoffice champ of the films nominated…..so it looks like SM all the way. I suppose I am just looking for reasons to hope SM wins it all…or should I say …wins them all on OSCAR night.
I think Boyle is goint to win, but I’m hoping Fincher can pull the upset!
I don’t buy the argument that if any movie is going to upset Slumdog, it’s going to be The Reader. You’re giving Harvey way too much credit.
For fans of Oscar statistics, it’s rare for a movie with the least nominations to win Best Picture. I think you have to trace all the way back to 1977 and Annie Hall to find the most “recent” example.
By the way, did anyone see Cindy Adam’s column in the NY Post today? She reported on what “they” are saying will win the top six Oscars (“they” are supposedly Academy voters she’s spoken to). The results aren’t surprising. BP: Slumdog. Director: Boyle. Actor: Penn. Actress: Winslet. Supporting Actor: Ledger. Supporting Actress: Cruz.
Take with a grain of salt, since the source is Cindy Adams, a gossip columnist. But I thought it was fun anyway.
Suspense is nice, but Boyle won this thing back in October — no question about it. This is at least a Slumdog nomination I can get behind, even if I’d give it to Nolan, Fincher, and Van Sant over him.
from what i read and heard i couldnt understand why Button was not the frontrunner- then I saw it last night- possibly the most boring movie i’ve ever had to watch. I love Cate Blanchett but what was she thinking. Pitt doesnt do match acting. Way too long. Shmaltzy and sentimental but not moving at all. And now I understand what others mean when a film is made for awards, although I dont think this deliberately was.
Milk winning Best Picture would be the only positive thing to come out of awards season this year.
If Fincher does win the DGA on Saturday, TCCOBB instantly becomes the Oscar frontrunner..
Danny Boyle is winning.
The Z, please share your formula and its accuracy! I would die of happiness if Milk won! (though Slumdog is a good film too.)
He’s a very underrated director who doesn’t get a enough credit, and really I think he’s going to win this weekend and Oscar weekend, he definitely deserves it.
If Fincher does win the DGA on Saturday, TCCOBB instantly becomes the Oscar frontrunner.
Gentle Benj, your statement is interesting and has logic working for it. My own view is that’s a rather daring thing to say. If Fincher were to win — and that’s a very big “if” — for sure everyone would be taking a good, strong look at Benjamin Button. But instantly? A frontrunner? A lot of water has already spilled over the dam. . . .
Likewise, although the formula developed by TheZ (#16) indeed may be a useful perspective on the Oscar race, I’m skeptical of the superiority of such a system to one that also considers other factors and precursors. While a 94% success rate is nothing to knock, I need to see more. That said, I admire anyone with the skill and willingness to create and undertake such an ambitious task.
SM wasn`t my favourite film of the year but wow I`m very impressed by Danny Boyle ! He deserves to win all the Best Director trophies out there!
Oh man, how i’d love a Gus Van Sant upset win.
This is shallow and silly, I know, but does Danny Boyle resemble a leprechaun to anyone else? Something about his face. Maybe that’s why he’s getting the gold…
I predict Boyle will win the DGA but a Nolan upset would be great!
DANNY BOYLE DESERVES IT MORE THAN THE OTHER PEOPLE .
And i call Slumdog for 7 oscars .
IT IS WRITTEN .
If Sean Penn thinks “Slöumdog” deserves it, and Sasha is picking it too, than it is written!
I bet Z´s formular is wrong this year…
Am I the only person who thinks Paranoid Park is better than Milk. Milk was fairly good but it lacked flair and invention whereas Paranoid Park was some kind of beautiful film making.
Boyle or Nolan deserve this award. Fincher should have been up for it last year for Zodiac; Bengie Button is something of a chore to get through, although it is rather pretty. And Ron Howard: As good as Frost/Nixon is, I fear I’ll never be able to forgive him for The Da Vinci code and to think we have Angels and Demons out this year – ARGH!
why am I the only one smelling an upset coming from David Fincher?
Does DGA actually award automatically the flavor of the week – which Slumdog is, certainly – or do they actually award with bigger and broader considerations – that means, David Fincher is SO overdue after being clearly robbed for not one (Boyle was, for Trainspotting), but THREE classics (Se7en, Fight Club and Zodiac). I also think Boyle is taking it, but I won’t be surprised at all if Fincher actually wins.
I don’t really think everything is sealed, Sasha. If we look up in the Oscar archives, you and I know that a film like Slumdog never won, despite the buzz and love, they scored a shitload of precursors and all they got was that lousy technical or screenplay award.
I am also thinking Slumdog is SO winning, but I am not daring to say the victory is locked… I, for one, have learnt from my 2005 mistakes.
Benj, if Fincher wins the director oscar race gets a little more interesting but Slumdog will still be favored for BP. To say Button would “instantly become the frontrunner” is hysterical and ridiculous.
RichardA please please explain how The Reader has gone from being considered lucky to score a nomination to film most likely to upset Slumdog?? Do you have one shred of evidence???
Check out the odds from easyodds.com. The Reader coming 5th in every race
http://www.easyodds.com/compareodds/tv-and-awards/awards/m/193299-231-5.html
@ Matthew H: I haven´t seen “Milk” yet, but I´m much more an admirer of van Sants indie-movies like “Drugstore Cowboy”, “My own private Idaho” or, more recently, “Elephant” and “Last days”, than his mainstream movies like “Good Will Hunting”.
The truth is, the Academy would never honor him for his experimental stuff – hardly any member will have seen his avantgarde-footage…
Also agree on Fincher: “Zodiac” was criminally robbed, so was Downey Jr.
If they feel that they own him a price, I think Gus van Sant would be the one. But, if they judge the film in competition, only Boyle should be the winner (Nolan runner-up)
It’s a mistery to me…I don´t share all that love for slumdog millionaire…The screenplay is interesting, but i think the MTV style Boyle choose was wrong, becoming a flim full of cliches and getting the dark and crude side into a tourist sight for people who likes to watch a colourful view of the third world..the wrestler played with the same combination fights/hard life, tv show/hard life, but it’s the opposite thanks to the honest choice Aranofsky choose…It shows the bleak side straight but with real life breath made of tenderness and undertanding..it doesn´t force the watcher as Boyle to feel good…and as a fairy tale, or dickensian line, it could have been a powerful film, but it became a manufactured work like a long video clip…As a Fiary tale, it’s much stronger TCBB, a real masterpiece, so deep and emotive (in a genuine way, because fincher meets the emorion, he doesn´t blackmail you)….
There are much better films than slumdolg millionaire: The wrestler, Paranoid park, Changeling, Gran torino, The visitor, the dark night…And this is not much better than other films he did…The beach or Sunhine or A differente story are awful..and Shallow grave, or trainspotting aren´t bad but nothing special…Amazing…an mtv movie is the best of the year for critics there
@ Dominik:
I’m sure this year the formula will fail. The previous years that it didn’t work out were years when a film was on a roll, sweeping everything. It’s not flawless, but it seems to have some accuracy when dealing with close races. I just use it to sway my picks in Oscar pools if I’m undecided. I’m still choosing “Milk” to win, but I know “Slumdog Millionaire” will probably walk away with it.
@ The Z: If “Milk” will surprise everyone and take “best picture”, you are the official Oscar-Oracle of Delphi!
truth is “Slumdog” is like a small puppy… it shits and pees and you see all its flaws and yet you can’t be too hard on it. “Benjamin Button” in exchange is the movie everybody expects too much. It’s not a masterpiece, but almost. And truth is, it’s hysterical how people compares it to Forrest Gump and accuse it of plagiarism – Benjamin Button was written in the 20’s folks! – when everything is different – tone, direction, acting…
And Milk is the movie almost no one wants to admit its flaws, lol
How the hell did the godfather part II not get an editing nomination?
Or Annie Hall, whose jokes are 2 parts writing, 2 parts editing, 1 part performance.
Paranoid Park is a 2007 film, it was nominated for the Independent Spirit Awards that year.
Jesus Alonso wins prize for one of the more ridiculous responses to the Gump criticism:
“And truth is, it’s hysterical how people compares it to Forrest Gump and accuse it of plagiarism – Benjamin Button was written in the 20’s folks! – when everything is different – tone, direction, acting…”
Clearly you have not read the short story because aside from the basic premise the story and the film almost have nothing to do with each other. And the Gump and BB are VERY similar in terms of structure and key plot events. True, the mood of the two films are very different, but to say “everything” is different is absurd.
question is, “uhh”, do you think that they “adapted” Benjamin Button into “Forrest Gump 2″? Forrest Gump is a gentle satire without a shade of darkness. Benjamin Button is not. Is dark in tone, mature in developement, sensual… Apart from a couple of points in common – war, exactly – they don’t really share more. It’s not the first movie made in flashbacks, nor it will be the last. They share some points, but it is not modelled after a huge B.O. hit that won Best Picture, mainly ’cause it has a personality on its own… and it’s more ambitious in themes.
Button suffered from over hype. I found it incredibly boring and cliched, and sentimental rather than moving. Oscar bait that misfires in my opinion
Nolan still gets my vote here, and I’m not so sure Boyle is a slamdunk. NBR named Fincher best director. And NSFC and NYFC both went with Mike Leigh. I know, I know: precursors tell us nothing, but still….
By the way, I wonder if Sean Young will be in attendance tonight?
Oh, and for what it’s worth: Fincher’s NBR award could be the kiss of death. In the past 25 years, the NBR’s choice of best director has agreed with DGA only five times.
Boyle is pretty much a done deal, but I do think (and HOPE) that Nolan could pull a major upset. If there is anyone who can appreciate the audacity and brilliance of “The Dark Knight,” it’s fellow directors.
Leave a reply
All comments should respect the Awards Daily House Rules. If you think a particular comment breaks these rules then please let us know, quoting the comment in question.