The Reader is like the English Patient. Old age makeup, great sex scenes, World War II, Harvey Weinstein, redemption, suffering.
This occurred to me today as I was contemplating who might win the Scripter. Is The Reader still coming up from the outside, or is, as NY Times’ Michael Cieply suggests, Benjamin Button the potential spoiler? This subject has been bandied about in our comments for quite some time now, though the consensus seems to be that it’s either Milk or Benjamin Button to upset. The way I look at it is this. This same rule, by the way, applied to the year The Departed won. You have your obvious frontrunner. Then you have little splinter groups that don’t like the frontrunner and so what is next on their list? Benjamin Button is the obvious choice, with 13 nominations. But what if it isn’t. The Reader was clearly beloved enough to make a last minute show at the Oscars and not like Atonement, which made it with no director nod, not like Munich, which started out strong, then was a disappointment but ultimately made it anyway: The Reader succeeded despite the critics mostly panning it. That is some serious Academy love there.
But okay, so let’s say some of them like Button, some of them like The Reader, well a lot of them are going to like Milk. The potential spoiler is only a serious threat if the other films are weak in the category. As far as I can tell the weak link here is Frost/Nixon for a variety of reasons but right at the top of the list is that it was already a successful play (I know, Chicago). That takes away a bit of its heat as a potential threat.
There is enough passion for Milk and Benjamin Button AND The Reader to pull votes in every other direction. Slumdog still comes out the winner because the majority (the actors for instance, who just chose for ensemble) still go for the frontrunner.
This scenario has been playing this entire season. The thing Slumdog has going for it, the best thing it has, is that audiences are still discovering it. When this season started, around Christmas, I mentioned the film to my family. Not a single person had even heard of it. This is really how the Oscars work best – when they bring people to films that they never would have heard about otherwise. So, Slumdog might seem like the frontrunner to we who obsess on this stuff but to the rest of the population who had never heard of it, it is still the underdog.
And notice how no one is calling Slumdog the “little movie that could”? Slumdog started out as a Bollywood-style movie that might have hit it in big in India and might have done moderate business over here. Sometimes magic happens when the collective is aligned in their feelings — in this case, residual hope and optimism from the Obama win — that puts the movie in exactly the right place at exactly the right time.
Remember early in the year Ryan and I both said that the election was going to be the tipping point for how voters responded to the films? Well, imagine if McCain and Palin had won. I suspect, in that scenario, Milk would be the strongest of the five. I also suspect that Revolutionary Road and The Dark Knight would have been nominated. But that isn’t now. Now is Obama, now is Slumdog Millionaire.
On the other hand, there is The Reader. This is the one I’d be worried about if I were Fox Searchlight. The first reason is that irresistible Academy dynamic of the Holocaust, love and sex. Gosh, I can’t believe I used those three words in a sentence. And I can’t believe that when I think of who Kate Winslet played I have to say “Nazi death camp guard.” But here’s the thing. Do we really loathe Hanna Schmitz? Are we prepared to do as the other guards and the public do in the film, place all of our blame on her? What was she supposed to do? What was anyone supposed to do back then? Everyone was going along with it. Hell, even Americans went along with it. My departed grandmother back in the 30s and 40s had to lie about being Jewish and had to change her name to get work.
Most people turned a blind eye. The film doesn’t sympathize with her – it merely opens up this idea of the people involved, the people who went along with the horrors happening before their eyes.
So what we have with The Reader is an “important” film. I don’t know if Slumdog qualifies as “important” in their eyes. What Slumdog is is a hell of an entertaining ride. But for old timers in the Academy who might be interested in something deeper they might vote for The Reader.
And then again, there are many of them that are going to respond to Benjamin Button. The Brad Pitt and Taraji P. Henson nods show they loved this movie a hell of a lot more than the critics did. So that makes The Reader and Benjamin Button two films that were popular with the Academy despite the critics.
Benjamin Button had the misfortune of being the early frontrunner and that always sets expectations too high, impossibly high. An Oscar movie has to be seen and then talked about as Best Picture – it can’t be talked about as Best Picture and then seen. I’ve yet to see a movie do that.
The bottom line here is that if Slumdog had been weak at all it would have showed up at the SAGs. It won there, impossibly. My point in all of this mumbo jumbo is just to say that if there was going to be a spoiler, like The Reader, it would be counter-balanced by the other potential spoilers, which is how Slumdog keeps winning. This, as opposed to there being only two films in the race. This feels like a one-film race with three other films pulling against each other for second place.
62 Responses for "The State of the Race – The Big Pull"
Slumdog must be stopped. At this point, I don’t have a preference of which flm does it. Well actually, I do. That would be Milk. But I suspect Benji Button and the Nazi Sex movie stand a better chance.
I was in Mumbai in 2007 and Slumdog is about as accurate as a Disney film.
“Well, imagine if McCain and Palin had won. I suspect, in that scenario, Milk would be the strongest of the five. I also suspect that Revolutionary Road and The Dark Knight would have been nominated. But that isn’t now. Now is Obama, now is Slumdog Millionaire.”
Nope. They vote what they like, no matter if the president is called Bush, McCain or Obama.
I have to agree with Dominik. I wanted to like all of the best picture nominees equally. I was especially looking forward to Milk and Benjamin Button, but Slumdog was the best movie of this past year. The other nominees were lacking in one way or another. Slumdog is far from perfect, but it’s the best of this group of five.
If by Academy love you mean Weinstein bribery, then yes, there is a lot of love for the Reader. I also haven’t seen Munich yet, but I’ve heard nothing but greatness about it. And I concur with Dominik & Matt. But at this point, I could give less of a crap on who wins. It won’t matter in ten years from now. Hell, give it five and it won’t matter.
I think “The Reader” is a great, beautiful and VERY complex film. It’s not good guys v. bad guys film. It’s about soooo many complicated things and also, well, hell, it’s the first time we’ve seen a GERMAN perspective(Hannah’s) on WWII.
That character of Kate The Great’s just haunts me. I really can’t stop thinking about it.
And as usual, Sasha hits it right on the head, sex, love, Nazis…It’s in the classic academy tradition.
And also in the classic Weinstein tradition. I.E. “English Patient.”
As Sasha so astutely pointed out.
But I think “English Patient” had a lot more going for it in terms of hype AND momentum. Big time discussions about it everywhere you went that year. You couldn’t get away from it.
NONE of these films has that overwhelming feel to it…Yet…People are still discovering it..”The Reader” I mean.
And the Academy does NOT want to rubber stamp the other awards shows. THAT is a powerful pull.
So to make them seem better, smarter, essential(*waves to Robert Osborne*) they’ll pick something that is simply, well, NOT the won the others have been awarding like crazy.
And Sidney Pollock and Anthony Minghella are now in the race, too, as Best Picture nominees. And Harvey Weinstein is standing in the background, the emininance gris, as the French say. That’s so Irving Thalberg would do. Let the others, in this case, the brilliant beloved dead guys, be the nominated ones.
So in essence that’s who the Academy is voting for. Sidney Pollock and Anthony Minghella.
AND Kate Winslet AND David Hare and Stephen Daldry.
This is Academy Catnip.
The Reader has a lot of things but I wouldn’t include great sex scenes in that list. I never would’ve thought watching Kate Winslet with a younger man could be so damn boring.
Anyway, I too agree that Slumdog is the best of the five. Milk and Frost/Nixon are both good but both extremely average, Benjamin Button is the misfire of the year, and The Reader is just dreadful. Had Slumdog come out in 2007, the hype would be unwarranted against masterpieces like No Country and There Will Be Blood, but we’re talking about 2008 where we got virtually nothing worth cherishing in future years.
But I’m still worried about a Reader upset. Weinstein, Nazis, Pollack, Minghella… that could do it, I’m afraid.
Yup, Slumdog is easily the best of the five nominated films. It says a lot, though, that the five are no where near being the best of the year.
If Weinstein is able to “bribe” members into voting for The Reader then surely the oscars are meaningless pap. I would like to believe that the academy would resist such pressure and say, “yer know what Harvey, this is all very well but The Reader isn’t that good and I’d feel kinda shallow voting for it.”
It must be strange having the mind of an oscar voter. I can’t imagine what thought processes occur when one is driven to tick the box next to an average film. On the other hand, it could be that the members only watch a few films a year and never expose themselves to those that are outside their comfort zone. Who knows?
Fuck The Reader! That movie should not have been nominated for Best Picture.
And fuck Harvey Weinstein! The world would be a better place without that fucking scumbag.
On an earlier post, I was gonna call The Reader as “the little movie that could”. But I scratched the it, if only because it’s Weinstein Co. movie.
Well, now that the election is over. The post election hopeyness has waned. As has the inauguration glow softening. The mood of the country is changing a bit…less hopey, but more getting to the nitty-gritty of things. Thanks to Pres. O-, we all have to work hard now.
That’s bad news for Slumdog as it may not reflect so well on the Oscar ballots.
@Loyal Menhart
There were multiple things in Slumdog Millionaire which were highly unrealistic.
- The game show host being a prick
- Beating up the chaiwallah because he got the answers right
- Latika knowing how to drive
- The main characters’ english being so good
- The police’s lack of concern during the riots (this is actually realistic, but overexaggerated)
- Even the american who gave poor wounded Jamal his last bill in his wallet, which happened to be a $100 bill, is quite unrealistic. Didn’t he have any rupees? I don’t think americans are that silly to carry only dollars in India. Isn’t he pissed off that his car’s all messed up? Or was it national Hug an Indian day in USA?
Despite this, it touched me to see this nice american couple being so caring. It moved me.
There are numerous things like that in this movie. But the beauty of it, is that it’s done with a purpose… to tweak the emotions of the audience. All these flaws are so nice, that they make you want to overlook them. That in itself, is an art, in my opinion.
I don’t think the academy looks at accuracy when judging a screenplay. Forrest Gump won. Did you notice that the bus driver in the movie never seemed to age? Of course she didn’t! And I enjoyed the movie even more because of this effective flaw.
I think that Slumdog has it wrapped up but I think a possible spoiler could be Milk. All the protests after Prop 8 passed seem to mirror the film Milk. Hollywood has always embraced the cause of equal rights for all and that was reflective in Sean Penn’s SAG win speech. The Academy was also highly critized in the gay community for not picking Brokeback Mountain Best Picture. These 2 factors I think make Milk a strong BP contender. They will reward it for sure, most likely either Penn and Screenplay perhaps both.
Sean-Marshall
Milk is easily the Best Film of the lot, and though the Oscars truly lost any credibility me for me this year as soon as Slumdog became the frontrunner(I’ve been saying all along, all the Oscar movies this year are plain wrong), the only way I think the Academy could redeem itself in my eyes this year would be to give Best picture & Director to Milk.
I have to say I rather liked The Reader. I didn’t sympathize with Hanna Schmitz but I didn’t hate her either, I could see where she was coming from. I liked the movie because it appealed to me on a personal level.
One of my most cherished beliefs is that just like you have to be taught numbers and alphabets, you also have to be taught morality. You wont automatically think its wrong to kill someone until education & society hammers it into your head. (I, for the record, think theoretically absolutely nothing is wrong). That was the case with Hannah, she just didn’t know or feel it was wrong to kill people. She was morally illiterate as Stephen Daldry puts it. Thus she bears little guilt and all her guilt is borne by Michael Berg who has to justify his love for her to himself. There is no redemption for both characters.
I don’t know about that election theory – sometimes the “mood of the nation” isn’t really involved in films. At least to me. It doesn’t seem like There Will Be Blood and No Country – obvious critiques of our time. It’s hard to say personally.
If the election did play a spoiler effect, then Wall-E would’ve been nominated for Best Picture/Director. And among other movies, they also would’ve been nominated. The Wrestler with its low-key political undertones, etc.
I don’t know. I don’t know.
But also, Ash, for the hundredth time, IT’S A FABLE!!! It’s meant to be unrealistic. I’m not directing this at you in particular but I get so annoyed by people complaining that Slumdog would never happen. OF COURSE NOT. Benjamin Button would never happen either but you don’t see anyone playing that card.
That’s because Benjamin Button is a true fable it has fantasy elements. Slumdog has no fantasy elemnts and is entirely set in the real world and the only reason it’s being called a fable is because of it’s plot holes.
Sasha,
I dont know why but I really feel that Benjamin Button will win the Best Picture prize…
No it’s not. In the first minute, the film poses a question in which one of the answers — obviously the right answer — is D. It is written. Clearly we are being clued in to the fact that it’s a story about destiny that will inevitably have a positive outcome, and we shouldn’t worry about the ending so much as the journey itself. Yes, the film has realistic elements, but the very premise hinges on the idea of destiny. If that doesn’t scream “It’s a fable” then I don’t know what to tell you.
@ humdinger
From your keyboard to ….
“Well, imagine if McCain and Palin had won. I suspect, in that scenario, Milk would be the strongest of the five. I also suspect that Revolutionary Road and The Dark Knight would have been nominated. But that isn’t now. Now is Obama, now is Slumdog Millionaire.”
Yes, the film about the smart bureaucrat passing for a conventional identity who then publically came out as different and became a community organizer for his cause, and subsequently guided that group to embrace their marginalized identities and to never blend in, leading them to heartbreaking victories and losses, only to become the first person of his identified group to be elected to a major public office, that is so yesterday, that is so not today.
In fact, it now baffles me that anyone could see it as being even NEARLY as topical as the film where the nice guy suffers hardships, then, whoopseydoodle!, wins the girl and a million dollars (which he doesn’t want, just as Obama never wanted the presidency, amirite?) because it is written: destiny identified him as marked for success and he floated along right to victory. Jai ho, ObamaJamal; Milk, what a loser. What a cynical film for the McCain Palin era.
Okay. Long ago I accepted that Slumdog was going to win everything, but lately I’ve also accepted that if people want to see Slumdog in their soup bowls and stool samples, they will see it there too – they will see it everywhere, end of argument, and if you dare not see it, you’re outta the family.
I suppose my only real political complaint here is, insisting that the Obama-Slumdog connection is so obvious is really problematic, racially, when the black man who got elected is said to have done so by destiny. And so it was destiny that no black man made it this far before him? Interesting. And scary, no?
. . . in this case, residual hope and optimism from the Obama win — that puts the movie in exactly the right place at exactly the right time.
Remember early in the year Ryan and I both said that the election was going to be the tipping point for how voters responded to the films? Well, imagine if McCain and Palin had won. I suspect, in that scenario, Milk would be the strongest of the five. I also suspect that Revolutionary Road and The Dark Knight would have been nominated. But that isn’t now. Now is Obama, now is Slumdog Millionaire.
I agree with these assessments. This isn’t about direct cause and effect but, rather, a kind of zeitgeist.
In addition to the qualities — already mentioned — that The Reader has going for it, I might also add that the film builds well and has a strong conclusion, much of it due to Olin and Fiennes.
@ Ash and Noah, I’ll quote this article because it sums up my feelings perfectly
“A slippery and self-conscious concoction, Slumdog has it both ways. It makes a show of being anchored in a real-world social context, then asks to be read as a fantasy. It ladles on brutality only to dispel it with frivolity. The film’s evasiveness is especially dismaying when compared with the purpose and clarity of urban-poverty fables like Luis Bunuel’s Los Olvidados, set among Mexico City street kids, or Charles Burnett’s Killer of Sheep, set in inner-city Los Angeles. It’s hard to fault Slumdog for what it is not and never tries to be. But what it is—a simulation of “the real India,” which it hasn’t bothered to populate with real people—is dissonant to the point of incoherence.”
Also there does seem to be a certain amount of white guilt associated with the film (both abroad and stateside), which explains it’s less than stellar reception within the brown world. Not saying we have a greater insight but as a brown person, having spent time in Mumbai, it’s really hard to look pass those serious flaws within Slumdog.
Milk won’t win because of its gay theme. Hollywood isn’t THAT liberal thinking. The Reader won’t win because it’s another Holocaust movie. So it’s between Benjamin Buttons and Slumdog. My money is on Slumdog. — if SD can get away from the bad publicity this week.
#10 Ash: You realize you were watching a “fantasy” type movie don’t you. There is no “real” there. To analyze it to that degree, you absolutely lost the joy of enjoying it.
I think Sasha makes a lot of good points with this post. Whether you like it or not, none of the other films have the same amount of support as Slumdog. Simply put, the majority of people love Slumdog. And after years of “important” and tragic downers winning Best Picture, I think the general mood in the Academy and the Guilds is to go for the vibrant, hugely entertaining (yet still socially conscious) fairy tale movie that everyone loves. And that is why Slumdog will win.
Wow, TONS o’ hatred for Slumdog today. First, if McCain/Palin had won Milk probably would be the strongest of the five, and we’d probably see a high percentage of votes for it if the ranked where each movie finished in voting. Under that scenario people mostly assumed to be progressive/liberal who failed to win the election, failed to stop Prop 8, and failed a couple years ago to recognize a truly artistic vision of similar subject matter would have made a much bigger deal about Milk. It would be their proxy feel-good win and a chance to pat themselves on the back for not going crazy like the rest of the country.
Instead, we have an economy tanking, huge unemployment, and companies laying off thousands of workers daily. We also have a President encouraging Americans to remain positive while at the same time talking about the long struggle ahead before we recover. In an environment like this audiences are drawn to escapist fare.
While not a mystery, the classic standard for solving such a story is that once you have eliminated the impossible whatever remains, however improbable, must be the solution. Slumdog Millionaire doesn’t depict anything impossible, merely improbable. The success of a character regardless of how improbable is what makes this movie so popular and also invulnerable to the scoffing above. You can apply the same standard of measurement to Shawshank Redemption in terms of characters succeeding when, in reality, they would be doomed to failure, setting the inexperienced cast and artistic flourishes in Slumdog aside.
Sasha, how cool that you accept The Reader as an adequate contender at last. And I still wouldn’t count out that “if Ernest Borgnine has to choose between that so-called feel-good movie which eventually turns out a hard watch and ruins his evening, and that BRITISH! film about first LOVE! and the HOLOCAUST! that includes a nude Winslet with an ACCENT!”, he would do the obvious, as I posted here two day ago. Despite the flaws of The Reader, it still moves me like no other film has this season.
Well, there are no guarantees at the Oscars. Look at what happened to Brokeback Mountain. I’d love to see Slumdog Millionaire but with Oscar campaigning going on for another couple of weeks anything can happen. That said, Slumdog is still the frontrunner. What I love about is it is fresh, imaginative, inspiring and heartwarming. Benjamin Button hasn’t won anything (and I’m glad people saw the triteness of this overly polished borefest), Milk and Frost/Nixon are political films that may turn off some voters who had enough of our recent elections, and the Harvey-backed Reader cause backlash for the slot what many feel was supposed to be The Dark Knight’s, which would have been the potential spoiler for Slumdog. I feel many fans of The Dark Knight, including me, will be pulling for a Slumdog win. It’s the outsider of the five films and the feel-good movie among the nominees which we sorely need during this recession.
I completely agree with everything Loyal Mehnert is saying. Slumdog truly wants to have it both ways, its supposed to be a film of today, reflecting today’s time, social conscious and focusing on the Third World and yet its an absolute and utter fantasy & glossy & misleading.
The film is a very gross exaggeration & misinterpretation of Mumbai & India. I hope no-one takes the film even remotely seriously as a true reflection of a Third World country.
White Man’s guilt is the word. The movie is and would be offensive to many brown people. Its a very Western view of what goes on. The scene already pointed is the most offensive scene in the film. The boy is being beaten and the American couple ask, What is this? The boy replies This is the real India. And the American man says, let me show you the real America and pulls out a crisp 100 dollar note full of compassion of charity and hands it to the boy??? Such horrible self-patting made me cringe with disgust.
Garbage tourism is what Salman Rushdie calls Slumdog. I still for the life of me cannot understand the Western fascination with Slumdog. Slums & garbage & shit strewn streets are innovative & exciting & something new & fresh? Come to Mumbai & thats literally all you will get. Yes the film shows slums & all but it shows a Disney version of them.
All these are simply minor things against Slumdog and shouldn’t really be given credence besides the one thing I truly hold against the film, it is truly undeserving and a merely good film that somehow finds itself in the position of winning every possible award on earth.
#21:
To lump Slumdog Millionaire in the same category as Los Olvidados and Killer of Sheep is to miss entirely what Slumdog Millionaire is as a film. The latter two are darker explorations of poverty and the effect of despair on the soul. Danny Boyle isn’t trying to show the world the crushing poverty of Mumbai. IF he were, then I would agree he failed. He’s operating in territory closer to My Man Godfrey or Shawshank Redemption. If reality were the focus of those films William Powell would have starved in the streets of New York and Tim Robbins would have died in prison. Those aren’t the stories each filmmaker set out to tell. All filmmakers ask you to check your preconceived notions at the door and enjoy the story they are telling you. If you aren’t willing to suspend belief, fine, that doesn’t mean those who do have done something wrong.
I would argue that Milk is also a feel good movie because you leave the film admiring a man and think that change in society is possible.
The problem with Milk is Academy members like Borgnine won’t watch it. Though at least the Reel Geezers liked it.
Red Wine (#28), welcome to the club.
Garbage Tourism indeed. The fact that Slumdog is winning awards left and right in a weak year only makes it even worse. The most undeserving juggernaut in quite some time.
True, there are no absolute guarantees at the Oscars a la the still unbelievable Brokeback Mountain loss, but Slumdog is as strong a lock as they come, as strong as Brokeback and No Country and American Beauty and Schindler’s List and Return of the King.
STEPHEN HOLT always says very smart things, but my one disagreement is on the Academy rubber-stamping everybody else. They absolutely DO rubber-stamp everybody else, they always have, and they don’t care. In part they don’t care because they’re the arrogant Academy, people will remember their winner, not the Globes, not the NY or LA Film crix.
In 81 years there have been very few Best Picture upsets; an upset is when the Academy doesn’t follow the pre-ordained winner, based on the precursors. If you look at the past 40 years, there have been only 4. Saving Private Ryan was extremely strong, but Shakespeare was certainly a contender on its tail, with Harvey going door to door, but also with the most nominations, crix prizes and a Golden Globe in its pocket. Born on the 4th of July was barely the favorite to beat Driving Miss Daisy, and only because Daisy failed to get a director nomination. But Daisy had the most nominations a Globe, the National Board of Review, great box office, etc. Reds was favored to beat On Golden Pond, but Chariots was not as out of left field as most thought. Clearly Reds had weaknesses, as evidenced by its Globe loss to Pond, loss in LA to Atlantic City, and disappointing box office. Pond was just…awful (sorry, it was, despite a wonderful Henry Fonda). Chariots had Best Picture prizes at the Globes (foreign/british were separate categories for a few years) and the National Board. Nobody cares what the National Board does now, but in 1981, there were only a few crix prizes (LA started in 1975), so it mattered. Plus Reagan was just elected, Reds was perceived as pro-communist, and Chariots’ theme was everywhere. It was an upset, but not over a zeitgeist.
That leaves us with Brokeback, which was as big a zeitgeist as there ever was, but for Schindler’s List (which lost nothing). I’ll spare everyone the usual long rant, except to say that Brokeback lost for the same reasons that Prop 8 passed, it was gay. Period. There are no other precedents before or since for a film with those precursors to lose…again, the Academy does rubber stamp.
That brings us to Slumdog. It ain’t losing. Had Dark Knight been nominated (as it should have) and Dark Knight won the Producers Guild award as it might have (and probably should have since it was such a phenom), then there would have been a contest. Had the year’s true Best Picture Wall-e been nominated, maybe that would have had a slight chance since it won the second most crix prizes and was ineligible at most of the guilds, but the Academy blew it big time there too. Slumdog won at the Producers Guild, and will undoubtedly win the Directors Guild, Danny Boyle has won as many directors prizes as Ang Lee. Slumdog is also highly likely to win the writer’s guild. The only film to win those three and lose the Oscar is Brokeback. And Slumdog even won SAG ensemble, which is a farce, but it did…and while that’s not a picture prize, it certainly shows what many of the actors are thinking, and how much they liked it. With Guild and critical dominance and just enough box office, Slumdog ain’t losing. Yes, there is some political tumult in India against it, but the non-international Academy just won’t care, it doesn’t hit home for them.
The Reader has no chance at all, its themes don’t matter. I liked The Reader a lot too, almost as much as Slumdog, but who cares. The Reader has no precursors at all. None. Even Crash had one (the Ebert, I mean, Chicago). Plus sag ensemble and the original screenplay writers guild. The Reader has a 55 on metacritic. Even Crash did much better, a 69 (I believe the previous low for an Oscar Best Picture nominee, much less winner). Forget the Holocaust theme. If a masterpiece like The Pianist can’t win – even with Best Director, Screenplay and Actor – then The Reader ain’t winning.
Milk ain’t winning. Yeah, it has a few precursors including prestigious New York, but far from enough, low box office etc.. Yes, the political climate is changing, but Prop 8 is still around, which no doubt Academy members Ernest Borgnine and Tony Curtis and “all their friends” (in the Academy supported). You can’t teach an old dog new tricks. Besides, Milk doesn’t deserve it. It has not captured the popular imagination the way Brokeback and, to a lesser extent, Slumdog have. That’s the thing about Oscar Best Pictures. They are rarely the critical/historical best, but, as Sasha has written, they usually represent what the industry likes best at the time, and usually the industry follows the American consciousness. LA Confidential won every critics award there was to win plus the writers guild but Titanic was just so big, the Academy wasn’t going to deny it, despite the superiority of LA. Cultural zeitgeist over artistic triumph. And yeah, Titanic was technically awesome, its script was extremely flawed, the Academy was right to not even nominate it.
Benjamin Button ain’t winning. Having the most nominations is less important than it used to be. Button has virtually nothing else going for it, as it has been dismissed as a Gump wannabe, which in itself is kind of insulting since Gump is one of the Academy’s many awful winners, topping Pulp Fiction and Shawshank Redemption and Quiz Show, which is really unthinkable if you watch all the films together. It has a lot of technical stuff going for it, but so does Slumdog, and so does Dark Knight.
Frost/Nixon is lucky to be in the mix. Its a smart adaptation but also has won no precursors, has terrible box office, and lets face it, it will be forgotten fairly quickly. If they loved Frost, they could have nominated Michael Sheen for supporting or, better yet, given Kevin Bacon his long overdue nod, but it wasn’t to be (Bacon was fantastic in Murder in the First and should have been Kevin Spacey’s true competitor in 1995).
More than the weaknesses of the other nominees, however, are the strengths of Slumdog. When films have the precurors, both critical and guild, plus buzz, plus box office, plus lack of strong competition, all the way Slumdog has, they win. Always. Unless that film is gay and Brokeback. The Academy is a disgrace for that, and its why I will never watch again. As for Slumdog, it will be a fine winner, though, like about 75%-80% of the time, the wrong choice. At least Wall-e has $200m domestic to comfort its producers!
The Reader is NOTHING like The English Patient. Both unpopular Oscar choices, yes. But go back and look at the reviews of TEP, and compare them to those for The Reader. And the films themselves are so drastically different, in structure, in aethetic, in quality. TEP is a masterpiece. The Reader is severely flawed. (Also, there’s no old age makeup in TEP, you might be thinking of the burn makeup, and certainly no redemption)
here’s the original NY times review for TEP
http://movies.nytimes.com/movie/review?res=9C01E6DE163AF936A25752C1A960958260
Another reason why Frost/Nixon will not be a strong contender in Screenplay Oscar is because Ron Howard was quoted as saying that the side actors were instructed to improvise while the two main actors spoke to the camera. It may not be the exact truth but a quote like that may make people think that when it comes to writing of the screenplay, Peter Morgan is not deserving.
I’m not saying that’s MY opinion. But I don’t get to vote.
SASHA!!!!!!! IF McCain and Palin had won then “RR” and “TDK” would have been nominated????!?!? Take the time to re-read before you submit something.,,because that assertion is extremely ridiculous and you know it. You just sound like a fanboy/fangirl (I know boy and girl Sasha’s! Sorry!)
Love your blog though.
@Sally and Noah (…for the 1st time)
If you read my post more carefully, you’ll see that it’s in response to another person’s comment about how the movie was unrealistic, and that it should not win the screenplay award on account of that.
I asserted his observation of how unrealistic it was, but only to show that that was a good thing, because it gives the movie more feeling. And to suggest that the accuracy of a script does not negatively influence its award winning prospects.
Great post, Ben!
Replying to Ash (#10):
To me, the one thing that bugged me the most about the inaccuracies in Slumdog Millionaire (and I loved the movie) was that when you “phone a friend” when playing on Who Wants to Be a Millionaire, it is a person predetermined before the show even starts, and I am pretty sure that person sits in an isolated room and waits for a call, that may or may not take place. I am not sure that is the case, I am not familiar with the rules of the game show, but I am pretty certain that’s the case – I mean if you called anyone sitting by a computer, within a second they could check for an answer on the web.
So that part bothered me a bit, but I had to just let it go and enjoy the movie.
rules vary from country to country but the five people for whom you’ve provided telephone numbers for your “phone a friend” lifeline are not sequestered and are free to use the internet or any other means for the correct answer.
Oddly enough, you do have to give producers landline numbers
I love “The Reader”, and it would be a much more deserving BP winner than “Slumdog”. Judging by the posts that have been made about it around here lately, most people who deride it haven’t even seen it. No, it isn’t “just another Holocaust movie”, and no, it isn’t preachy or self-important, and it certainly isn’t pornography. It’s a low-key (too much so for a lot of “The Dark Knight”’s supporters, evidently), thoughtful, chilling character study that asks impossibly difficult moral questions and then demonstrates a lot of tact by in no way trying to answer them. Like a lot of brilliant historical dramas that are set in a specific place at a specific time and populate themsleves with specific people, it reveals feelings and ideas that are universally relevant, provided the film has an audience that is willing to look past how it is being marketed. It seems to me that a lot of critics (and, it seems, posters on the internet) saw it adorned with an imaginary “Typical Oscar Movie” label, and then panned it as a matter of principle.
But can it, or any of the others, knock down “Slumdog”? I highly doubt that. I think the weakest of the bunch will indeed pull through.
The last four Best Pictures (No Country, Departed, Crash, Million Dollar Baby) were dark, tormented, often violent movies. The last time a movie with a truly happy ending won, it was Lord of the Rings.
THAT’S why I think Slumdog is a lock to win. It certainly has some dark material imbedded in it, sure, but you leave the movie on a cloud. The ending isn’t just happy, its ebullient.
What a weird alternate universe I’m in. First of all, the Academy snubs the obvious movie of the year for with a Nazi underage sex romp, then the only truly rocking nominee of the contenders is widely declared as the one that definitely won’t win despite a metacritic rating over 80, great acting, and the best script of the year (come on, that script could win…)
In all fairness, this year’s nominees are all fine, ambitious movies, but go FROST/NIXON for Best Picture/Director/Screenplay, and DARK KNIGHT for just about everything else!
SASHA:
Do you mind telling us, how is the traffic in your site, did it slowed down after the nominees were anounced?
because i think after the TDK snub and all this SUDENNLY INSANE love for the reader, some people just dont give a fuck anymore about the oscars this year…
Just saw The Wrestler… it really made me sad that about the current slate of nominees. Why did they overlook such a genuine, finely crafted film like that for overwrought tripe like Frost/Nixon and The Reader, or the liberal guilt/cinematic tourist piece du jour Slumdog Millionaire. This year is a gigantic step back for the Academy in terms of credibility.
Stephen your post is wishful thinking- as Ben points out the Academy year after year rubber stamps the films that have won the other awards- have you not heard of Return of theking, American Beauty, No Country etc etc
Sasha puts it brilliantly- the other films, including The Reader, all have their own pull, they will share the votes around. None has the support of Slumdog
And I dont know why posters like El Barto propogate this myth about “insane love for the reader” PLease someone show me some REAL evidence that this is the major challenger to Slumdog
SASHA:
Do you mind telling us, how is the traffic in your site, did it slowed down after the nominees were anounced?
because i think after the TDK snub and all this SUDENNLY INSANE love for the reader, some people just dont give a fuck anymore about the oscars this year
It was like a vacuum sucking the life right out of the season. The years where a popular movie is in the race, the traffic is better. With the Dark Knight out the party was immediately over for me and for many of the readers. That’s just the simple fact of the matter. Now it kind of feels like going through the motions as we head for a predictable end. That’s a drag. It’s all almost over with and when the Oscars are over the site calms way down until it starts all over again.
If the Dark Knight were still in play this would be a very exciting season. I suspect it is exciting for the Slumdog crew and for the Weinstein Co.
I´ll watch next week.
Lime…I saw the wrestler last night. I stopped watching halfway through. Didn’t care about it.
Of course, I also find wrestling to be trashy and rewarding for our basest instincts, but I think the academy thinks a lot like I do.
Person who said Academy rubber stamps precursors: what about Million Dollar Baby? Didn’t everyone think The Aviator was going to win? Am I making that up ? Obviously Million Dollar Baby was better (at least in my opinion). Anyway, I liked the Reader the most, but think Milk and Slumdog were better pictures (my heart just broke for Hanna because I’ve been in an analogous position before.)
I don´t believe.
Can I see people crying for TDK? Still?
Oh, please…
“Person who said Academy rubber stamps precursors: what about Million Dollar Baby? Didn’t everyone think The Aviator was going to win? Am I making that up ?”
Yep…everyone here knew MDB was going to win best picture for at least several weeks before the show.
Sasha: “An Oscar movie has to be seen and then talked about as Best Picture – it can’t be talked about as Best Picture and then seen. I’ve yet to see a movie do that.”
Return of the King passed this test. You could argue, however, that ROTK was not an ‘Oscar’ film (although I would argue that after FOTR and TTT were nominated, ROTK was).
I appreciate that Brokeback gets trotted out everytime posters want to raise a “slumdog might lose” scenario. However, Crash won the SAG that year and there was a very strong feeling it could win BP leading up to the Oscars. I read several pieces about it. This year no other contender has that momentum. And if you looked at the betting, Crash wasnt that far behind Brokeback that year, whereas Slumdog is miles ahead of the others. I think it’s just that Slumdog is not the sort of winner the academy goes for usually that is making people question whether it will win.
I dont know that McCain winning would have changed the noms in the slightest by the way
Since I’m joining this jibber-jabber party late, I’m sure no one would read this. But just in case someone does, I’ll put it out there anyway. Because like all of us, I like to believe my opinion matters in the world, because it’s written somewhere.
I agree with the idea that the election had an effect on the movies that were nominated. Think about it, movies nominated for Best Picture are rarely the actual “best films” of the year… at least not all of them. The thought process that Revolutionary Road, The Dark Knight, and possibly Wall-E (but probably not, because of the Animated Feature category, which the separate category never seems to hurt foreign films, but that’s another topic for another day).
But the reason the election would’ve had an effect is simply because the mindset of America and especially Hollywood would be altered significantly. People would be more disillusioned, angry, and cynical. A mentality that would’ve help The Dark Knight the most, because that’s the world Christopher Nolan’s film represents.
Of course, don’t get me wrong, even though I feel The Dark Knight was the best film of 2008… I would much rather have Obama in the White House than see The Dark Knight be up for Best Picture. I’d rather have both, but I wouldn’t trade off one for the other.
That being said, I think the nominees would’ve been better in a cynical society, because I am completely unimpressed with this year’s nominees. Frost/Nixon is the weakest by far. The Reader is well-done, but nothing that will be talked about in the future. Milk is completely overrated, and I personally think that if the same movie was made about a heterosexual protagonist, then we wouldn’t be talking about it. Benjamin Button is well-made, but so un-engaging (that’s not a word, but I’m going with it) that I have no interest in seeing any of it ever again. And Slumdog was good, sure. We all know Danny Boyle can make a movie, but there’s nothing about that film that sparks discussion.
The Dark Knight and Wall-E were the two films last year that really sparked discussion. For two reasons, 1) how they were made and their place in the film world and 2) what they represent in regards to the real world.
While some of the films in this top five may cover one or the other, none of them cover both. So, I’m completely unimpressed with this year’s nominees.
Further to my post above, Crash was much closer to Brokeback in the odds than any pic to Slumdog. Some examples
Crash 6/4 Brokeback 1/2 (william hill), Brokeback 4/5 Crash 2/1 (odds according to on incontention.com)
Current (eg VC Bet): Slumdog 1/5, Button 9/2, Milk 14/1, Frost 25/1. Reader 33/1
slumdog wins the scripter- go dog you good thing!!!
“With the Dark Knight out the party was immediately over for me and for many of the readers. That’s just the simple fact of the matter. Now it kind of feels like going through the motions as we head for a predictable end.”
If “The Dark Knight” was still in the race, the race wouldn’t be any less predictable because it would be pretty obvious that “TDK” would have no chance at all of defeating “Slumdog”. The state of the race would be pretty much the same.
And I think this is one of the most unpredictable seasons in recent memory, with no one clear frontrunner in three of the acting categories (all but Supporting Actor).
Critics didn’t “mostly pan” The Reader. It has a 58 on metacritic and a 60% on Rotten Tomatoes (so it gets a fresh tomato). And if you look on Metacritic, only two of the 38 reviews listed are genuine pans. That’s what we call mixed reviews. Low for a Best Picture nominee, but only slightly under what Babel had. Sometimes love-it-or-hate-it movies get nominated, it’s not the shock of the century. You can’t vote against a movie, and you can put it at the #1 spot, which is presumably why it was nominated. You need more of a plurality to win. I have a feeling Milk is the most likely potential upset.
I think the presidential election has nothing to do with it — if that were the case than the dark knight would be the front runner — a guy going against all the corruption in the city.
the problem with this years nominees is that they leave no other option but slumdog to win. If the Dark Knight had been nominated, I believe that it would have a chance because it would be a vote for a studio film. Button just doesn’t have the chops. And I find it completely ridiculous when people say that people will vote for Milk as a vote for Prop 8 — prop 8 failed in Los Angeles, so why would they vote for a movie to support it — also add the brokeback mountain factor. So really if there is any upset its frost nixon — which I hear the academy loves but no awards and no buzz or chatter about it and the reader (remember the pianist winning all those awards — they like movies about the holocaust, but the pianist actually deserved it. The reader is a good movie, but not if it has to take the place of The Dark Knight and the amazing Revolutionary Road. The Only thing stopping Slumdog Millionaire is if it were a gay romance. I don’t even think that Heath Ledger has it in the bag as much as people say that it is. I really hope I’m wrong. Here are my personal picks:
best actor: sean penn
best actress: kate winslet — not because of the reader but because of RR
best supporting actress — Viola Davis (doubt), i hope that harvey doesn’t steal this away from her for penelope who was not nearly as good.
best supporting actor — heath ledger
there is no old-age makeup in The English Patient – the whole story takes place within a span of less than three years. If you’re talking about the burn injury makeup on Ralph Fiennes, okay, then say that, and it’s still a hell of a lot more convincing than than gray pancake batter on Kate Winslet at the end of The Reader.
Will people ever get over TDK not being nommed for BP? Oy give it a rest – you can’t change anything!! And why do people keep referring to The Reader as pornographic or a sex romp? Shit, you should see the crap under my bed if you want pornography! TDK was an average, dark, comic strip movie – nothing special – good meets bad with an amazing performance from Heath. The end. The Reader was far more than a sex romp and if you don’t believe me then I suggest you get off your arses and go and see it before complaining about it. The Reader is more than deserving and David Kross should have been nommed in my eyes. A totally captivating performance. Go The Reader …. I will be rooting for you come Oscar night.
Dominic, who cares about accuracy (and I know people who have been to Mombai and tell me it is very accurate), the Oscar should be about Best Movie, not Most Accurate Film. Give me the name of a truly great film set in a real time and place that is 100% accurate. I bet you can’t. Accuracy doesn’t sell movies. Slumdog is simply a better movie than any of the others, which is why it is the favourite to win. This is a fable/fantasy. Surely no-one expects total realism in such a film.
For the air being sucked out of the race, like a vacuum, I agree. I’m “over” TDK not being nominated. I’m not whinging. But that it wasn’t nominated, and should have been, is still a fact, as much now as it was on the morning it was announced, and still a big mistake. “Going through the motions” is how the rest of the season is best described. I don’t give a damn about any of these top 5. I don’t hate them, mind you, not even ‘The Reader’, but of course liking a film, and being invested in a film, are two different things. In a year when two zeitgeist-owning blockbusters took home top critics prizes, box office, and/or guild noms, that the Academy decided to put up lackluster Oscar bait like ‘F/N’ and ‘The Reader’ is a shame. And to be expected, year in & year out. It’s a big middle finger to people like me (us), and though I guess I (we) don’t matter all that much, I don’t feel terribly engaged as a result. Whether you liked or didn’t like ‘TDK’ or ‘Wall-E’ is irrelevant – they will both outlast the “so-what” nominees currently on display, in the hearts and/or minds of anyone who likes films. This includes ‘Slumdog’. I hope ‘Slumdog’ wins because it, like ‘Milk’, was not made to win Oscars. I’ve always loved Danny Boyle, and he is clearly so overjoyed by the train of praise, even if it is largely undeserved…so, while the film does nothing for me at all – veracity aside, it’s sloppy and treats me like I’m eight, and doesn’t not hold up upon a 2nd viewing – what the hell. Give it to him. Just because a film is the most “genuine” of the bunch is not very exciting criteria for rooting for it, however. My heart’s not in this. Interesting that Sasha reports site traffic being down – a possible indication of where other people’s hearts are at, as well. Better luck next year, is my mantra. I’ve been doing this for too long to be crushed by any particular year – though the ‘Brokeback’ loss did a fair amount of damage!
The very fact that people still talk about the dark knight not being nominated — yet also being nominated for 8 awards — just goes to show you how much the Academy is SO wrong. If a lot of us didn’t complain, then it wouldn’t be such an oversight. We all know there is nothing that can be done.
I just saw Milk — there is no chance there for an upset, especially with people like Tony Curtis still in the Academy — who wouldn’t even watch brokeback mountain. I doubt they will sit through the first 10 minutes. It would be a real tribute for Heath if Sean Penn won for a gay role, one that he lost for Brokeback Mountain.
Anyone else annoyed that Philip Seymour Hoffman is not showing up to the awards ceremonies or the luncheon. I think it’s disrespectful, Heath went to every awards show and saw Hoffman win every award.
The real deserving best actor however is Leonardo dicaprio in Revolutionary Road. No one can compare to his performance in that movie.
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