The excitement in the air was palpable as every time anyone mentioned anything to do with Slumdog Millionaire, cheers and applause erupted from the hall. This was a time for celebration and everyone seemed happy at the BAFTAs, even the losers, locked into the loser-cam for their painful ten seconds of fake smiling. The star of the night was Mickey Rourke, who has a kind of magnetic giantness about him, like he’s physically too big for the room. He seemed almost like a live action figure stepping into the land of the animated. And he was funny. Accidentally but unmistakenly funny. He brought the house down, very nearly upstaging the special guest of the night, Mick Jagger.
The big question now will be how close with the Oscars match the BAFTAs. In the past few years the actors have matched up well. But who’s to say in the time between then and next week that feelings might have changed. Will the sound, cinematography and score all go Slumdog’s way?
Original Screenplay is a best guess at best at this point; there is no telling which way that one will go. The BAFTAs say In Bruges, the WGA says Milk. But there is Wall-E and Frozen River and even Happy-Go-Lucky waiting. It is more wide open than any other category, and especially so since it’s usually easy to predict it.
Penelope Cruz seems to have taken the lead in the supporting actress race but that one is also anyone’s game, since Kate Winslet cast such a strong shadow in the thick of the race, taking things over from the frontrunner Cruz. Now, Cruz has bobbed back up to the surface, aided by a newly invigorated Harvey Weinstein, who stood very plainly on camera as Penelope won. Kate Winslet gave her a hug on the way up. Weinstein was having a good night.
The big question of this race isn’t whether Slumdog will win but how much will it win. With the loveable and absurdly talented Danny Boyle there, sincere and humble, with his son standing up and cheering in the middle of his speech, “I love you, dad!” You want to just wrap yourself up in a pile of mewling kittens it’s so goddamned cute, all of it. So yeah, no stories of poverty porn or unpaid child actors are going to derail this one. This train is on the fast track and most people aren’t going to complain. Slumdog took a total of 7 BAFTA awards.
At the Oscars, it will take in a cake walk: Picture, Director, Screenplay, Score.
It should also take: Score, Editing (although we haven’t heard from the ACE).
It may take, if it’s a sweep: Sound, Sound Editing and Song.
That would give it nine Oscar wins. At this point, it wouldn’t surprise me. The BAFTAs didn’t particularly want to spread the wealth that much, the actors went ass over elbow, it’s all over but the shouting. Slumdog should take at least seven Oscars. At least.
But it’s hard to not think about Rourke, who made everyone laugh with almost every line of his speech. It was perfect for the occasion, it might have perked up some bored awards watchers, and it gives Oscar voters something to look forward to. On the other hand, there is Sean Penn in one of his best performances. It’s a tough call that one. If speeches matter, if the BAFTA matters, Rourke has it in the bag.
If Rourke wins, and Slumdog and Kate Winslet - it will be a season of happy endings. Rourke back from the brink, Kate Winslet finally winning and Slumdog Millionaire and its scrappy, deserving crew – collecting award after award in an unprecedented march to the finish.
57 Responses for "Can’t Stop This Train"
But we can jump. XD
After the BAFTAs, I’m actually getting tired/bored of the Slumdog love, and I actually love the movie and think it is far and away the most deserving film of the year. It’s just upsetting that there’s nothing else that can come close. Though Slumdog is great, a sweep by this film just feels more like a reflection of the perpetual weakness of the industry in general.
And Slumdog doesn’t deserve the sound awards.
I don’t understand the lingering doubt over Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay. If anything, the frontrunners are very clear by default. I’d be more wary of an upset in the less sexy categories – Makeup, Cinematography, the Sound awards, Song, and especially Foreign Film.
And Slumdog’s prospects in Song shouldn’t be lumped together with its chances in the Sound categories. I don’t think younger voters care who Peter Gabriel is, even though it would be nice to give Wall-E at least two awards. But who knows.
Kate Winslet is so winning the OSCARS. – no one has even lost an oscar after winning CRITICS, SAG, GLOBE and BAFTA – be it supporting or lead…as long as its the same performance/film.
Slumdog is now 80% sure in getting the BEST PIC WIN
I still feel Sean Penn in the lead…but i think in the end…MICKEY will get it.
By the way…I hope Penelope will win. If there will be an upset then it’s ok as long as it’s either Amy Adams or Marissa Tomei. But still I live Penelope. If she wins this year. Then she won’t win anymore in Nine and could give way to Nicole Kidman and Judi Dench getting supporting Nods.
I agree with zach – Slumdog didn`t deserve ‘Sound’ .
But anyway since Slumdog is such a strong contender overall – they`ll give it a song win too.
The song category at the Oscars is still a gamble….look what happened to Enchanted
“The big question of this race isn’t whether Slumdog will win but how much will it win.”
I just can’t understand the love for this film. Plain simple reaction.
“Penelope Cruz seems to have taken the lead in the supporting actress race but that one is also anyone’s game.”
Don’t underestimate the power of the Weinsteins, though “Curious Case” sup. actress nominee Taraji P. Henson is my underdog in this category.
“Original Screenplay is a best guess at best at this point; there is no telling which way that one will go. The BAFTAs say In Bruges, the WGA says Milk. But there is Wall-E and Frozen River and even Happy-Go-Lucky waiting.”
It’s in the bag – Dustin Lance Black’s in this case. It’s the “we have to give this film something” award. “In Bruges” won because it’s well loved in the U.K. (as its numerous nods attest).
As for Mickey Rourke, I don’t feel the love (just like most AMPAS members). Give Kate Winslet the Oscar already!
…and it’s all over. Slumdog will take all of it and people will eat it up. It’s become *too* predictable by now. Sadly, it looks like the year in oscars is over for me as we already know the winners before it’s even begun. I honestly don’t even think it’s worth it to watch the oscars, which is sad since I usually look forward to it every year, but knowing who is going to win has taken out such a large element out of it. Sure, I’d love to see Heath Ledger win and It’d be nice to hear a speech from Mickey Rourke (unless Penn wins), but all in all, there’s no excitement for this year. Slumdog will win, and the awards will still go on too long.
Sweeps (or near sweeps) are such a rare thing. You’re talking ROTK, Ben-Hur, Titanic, West Side Story, The Last Emperor, Gigi, Bridge on the River Kwai, and The Best Years Of Our Lives.
If you like, you can toss in An American in Paris, and A Man for All Seasons, both 6/8. Silence of the Lambs was 5/7. If you’re looking at the low register of nominations, The Departed was 4/5, as was Annie Hall.
But suffice to say, sweeps/near sweeps don’t happen often. And for such an ordinary film to achieve that feat, sigh, kinda robs it of its magic.
The good news is that there’s one thing that’s even more rare than sweeps and that’s a sweep of Sound/Sound Editing/Score/Song. Titanic did it. And I believe that’s it.
This is just amazingly ridiculous. Even during last year’s No Country ’sweep’ Atonement still got the BAFTA and GG. Also of note, Slumdog has surpassed 100 million worldwide. No small feat.
I think at least one of the sounds will go to the dark knight. Bourne won both, another action movie. And dreamgirls won for mixing after being snubbed for the major awards.
But I can’t count out a slumdog sweep. Even though it does not deserve sound and cinematography.
Damn you slumdog! You are a good movie but you have made this race predictable and tough to call at the same time.
say
I think that Viola was good, but I just don’t get why everyone wants her to upset Penélope. She didn’t get any major awards contrary to Cruz and when Kate wasn’t on her way (for a major category fraud) Viola coudn’t even get a nod (as the Baftas and Amy did get one), so don’t count on a Viola upset.
I’m keeping my prediction for Penelope
There may be some Mickey love by the Brits but I think Sean Penn will take it. His performance as Harvey Milk showed tremendous range and I believe there is strong momentum around Prop 8. The other BAFTA to Oscar comparisons for actor were pretty much for the front runners anyway – Hoffman, Day-Lewis, etc. This year Penn has done very well; so has Rourke. Neither are certain, but I believe Penn is the one that should win and Penn is the one that will win.
O please not Rourke, Penn was so much better I don’t know where to start.
I guess I’m the only one who didn’t find Rourke’s speech funny. I loved his performance in The Wrestler. But I found his speech crass and the
cursing unnecessary.
If Focus were doing a better campaign for Penn, I would say he’s ahead for the Oscars but they are blowing it.
So Rourke will most likely win on Oscar night.
“I honestly don’t even think it’s worth it to watch the oscars, which is sad since I usually look forward to it every year, but knowing who is going to win has taken out such a large element out of it.”
*****
There’s always an upset at the Oscars I’m sure the Academy will think of a way to mess things up.
I knew the period leading up to the nominations would be infinitely more exciting than these next two weeks (though only two weeks, already!).
It’s really been this way for the past few years.
But like Sasha said – we have a lot to be happy about. Heath Ledger will win a well deserved Oscar for a legendary performance (even for a comic book movie!), Kate Winslet will finally win, Penelope Cruz will make a little history and sex it up, and Mickey Rourke will very possibly do what Gloria Swanson couldn’t and completely turn his career around. The best film will win, the best animated film will win, Milk will probably win script. Everyone can be happy.
It’s an incredibly tough call between Penn and Rourke. Penn’s is the more complex performance but Mickey’s is the more physically demanding — I don’t know, the way I see it, Penn won recently. Maybe that shouldn’t be the way we judge these things but I can’t help but do so every year. Same argument goes for Streep and Winslet.
One thing the bafta and globes had in common was the lack of love for milk. Also they are both non-American groups. I am still predicting Penn takes the oscar, but it is definately a two-man race and I reserve the right to change my mind.
Kate and Heath are locked in.
My gut is telling me viola for supporting but cruz is my offical prediction.
Enough with the Slumdog whingeing. Every award show, another new round of whining. A sweep is a sweep is a sweep just accept it. It doesnt matter if YOU think its good enough or deserving, the Award bestowers think so, so bad luck.
Congratulations to Slumdog for joining Schindler’s List in the sweeps (Schindlers didnt have SAG ensemble and Critics Choice to win that year but won the smaller critics ones), Return of the King (won the same as Slumdog except lost the scripter) and American Beauty (who wouldnt win scripter beacuse its an original screenplay).
Yes, like it or not Slumdog is now in elite company by virtue of its awards and your complaining cant do a thing to change that…
And re: everyone being happy for the losers, a few times David Fincher looked exceedingly unhappy. Probably thinking, if it werent for Slumdog these would be my sweeps…
been checking BAFTA’s website..how come there’s no backstage interview with THE GREAT KATE WINSLET after she won?everybody has it…
Loyal-
You forgot “Amadeus” (8), “Patton” (8), “Gandhi” (8), and “The English Patient” (9) in your list of sweeps. That’s 12 out of 80-Just goes to show you that sweeps happen often enough to be a legitimate possibility.
Sasha,
re: recent winners. Tom Hanks won back to back years; Hillary Swank within 5 years (2000; 2005). Sean Penn won in 2003. 2008 wouldn’t seem unreasonably close. Perhaps the difference (besides the fact that he’s a far better actor than Swank) is that Penn is a strong, consistent presence, has been around for what, almost 30 years, and has been nominated now 5 times. So it may seem to some that he’s won more recently than he has. Swank isn’t a major presence in Hollywood; she (IMO) just got lucky.
I don’t think recency will hurt Penn’s chances. There may be other barriers, including the great story that follows Rourke this year.
The way I see it, Milk will take at least one major Oscar, and I think it’ll be screenplay. The actor race is indeed close, but two factors may give Rourke the edge: It’s not just that Penn already won an Oscar recently, it’s that he’s not that liked in Hollywood. Overall, I think Rourke has more sentiment going for him and it’s a bigger, more “Oscary” role and performance. Still, a close one to call.
If Slumdog takes seven or eight Oscars, then it is likely that one of the other four best picture nominees will receive zero awards, two of them will only receive one apiece and the the fourth one will receive multiple statues.
If The Duchess snags costumes, and TDK takes one or both of the sound awards, it looks to me like Frost/Nixon will be the zero; Benjamin Button will take three (visual effects, art direction and makeup); The Reader will take one (Best Actress); and Milk will take either Best Actor or Best Original Screenplay. The question is, which one? How much love can WALL-E, In Bruges, Happy-Go-Lucky or Frozen River muster?
If Penn isn’t liked in Hollywood, then he wouldn’t have won the SAG.
I think Rourke is going to win now because he’s campaigning more.
If Penn were on talk shows, it would not only help him but the film. He’s only appeared on Tavis Smiley for gosh sakes.
All the previous movies with sweeps were big lavish productions all carefully and meticulously put together over years. Their high no. of nominations proved that they were all round well made, like Button is this year.
It is rather shocking and shameful that Slumdog has 10 Oscar nods. A sweep would even more discredit the Oscars.
Slumdog will not age well and will be counted as 1 of the most disappointing wins of the decade along with A Beautiful Mind, a merely nice film that somehow caught the people’s fancy.
You can’t stop a derailing train either and this train had certainly derailed.
go slumdog whoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
all of you stop hating
A sweep is a sweep is a sweep just accept it. It doesnt matter if YOU think its good enough or deserving, the Award bestowers think so
Slumdog has surpassed 100 million worldwide. No small feat.
“If Penn isn’t liked in Hollywood, then he wouldn’t have won the SAG.
I think Rourke is going to win now because he’s campaigning more.
If Penn were on talk shows, it would not only help him but the film. He’s only appeared on Tavis Smiley for gosh sakes.”
If an actor shows up more than 3 talk show and you would call him an Oscar whore already. How do you want them to act … no matter they do it’s always wrong. Sean likes to get another one but whoring it I am not sure!
“A sweep is a sweep is a sweep just accept it. It doesnt matter if YOU think its good enough or deserving, the Award bestowers think so”
Tell that to TDK fans.
It is a heck of a gravy train that Slumdog rides on. Four oscars – picture, director, music and script are in the bag. Not bad for a film that almost went straight to video. Warner must be kicking themselevs for not distributing it.
Why is everyone ignoring Frank Langella? For me it’s very well possible that he causes a huge upset. He was brilliant as Nixon, he is a veteran actor and at the same age as most voters. Remember Alan Arkin winning? He surely wasn’t a shoe-in to win the Oscar but in the end he did and that mainly for the last two reasons I mentioned.
If Sean Penn wouldn’t have won a few years ago it might be different. Not sure if they want to hand him another trophy so soon. And I don’t know how they feel about ol’ Mickey. Do they really allow him to return from the wilderness after 10+ years and then claim Hollywood’s biggest price?
And the Sound Editing Oscar belongs to Ben Burtt’s WALL-E and no one else. Period.
Langella is being ignored because he has won zero precursors. Period
The Oscar is for Penélope…
Bafta put Winslet in the lead category for The reader because they wanted to give the supporting award to whom deserves it….Cruz…
and the AMPAS did the same…they want both beauties in the winners picture….I love both…and it was very sweet when Pe huged Kate before her speech…
Here is the moment…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8ha2pT4z5M
That might have been a bit harsh. I think if I’m righ Adrien Brody is the only best actor to have won an Oscar without ANY other precursor?? Am I right??
HaroldsMaude said:
“Tom Hanks won back to back years; Hillary Swank within 5 years (2000; 2005). Sean Penn won in 2003. 2008 wouldn’t seem unreasonably close. Perhaps the difference (besides the fact that he’s a far better actor than Swank) is that Penn is a strong, consistent presence, has been around for what, almost 30 years, and has been nominated now 5 times. ”
The somewhat curious fact about repeat acting winners (in the last 20 years or so at least) is that whenever someone won fairly quickly after the first win (Hanks, Foster, Spacey, Swank) the latter Oscar came for what ended up the Best Picture winner. So I would say if Milk were poised to win that, Sean Penn could get a second Oscar only 5 years after his first. But since it’s unlikely to take BP, I will continue to predict Mickey Rourke for the win. Based simply on this strange little nugget of Oscar trivia.
Ok, at this point, here are my predictions:
Slumdog Millionaire: 6 (Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Score)
Curious Case of Benjamin Button: 3 (Art Direction, Make-up, Visual Effects)
Dark Knight: 3 (Supporting Actor, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing)
Wall-E: 2 (Animated Film, Song)
Milk: 1 (Original Screenplay)
The Wrestler: 1 (Actor)
The Reader: 1 (Actress)
Vicky Christina Barcelona: 1 (Supporting Actress)
The Duchess: 1 (Costume)
You may ask “why do you think that Sean Penn isn’t going to win Best Actor? ” Well let’s not forget a film from 2007 called Into the Wild. After seeing how many nominations that film got (2 nominations and no Sean Penn for Best Director), it makes me think that Sean Penn isn’t loved that much by the Academy. So this is why I’m going with Mickey Roukre. (At least Milk will win for Original Screenplay)
@ Cameron #22
“Loyal-
You forgot “Amadeus” (8), “Patton” (8), “Gandhi” (8), and “The English Patient” (9) in your list of sweeps. That’s 12 out of 80-Just goes to show you that sweeps happen often enough to be a legitimate possibility.”
Those aren’t sweeps. Amadeus was 8/11, Patton 7/10, Gandhi 8/11, and TEP 9/12.
Using that model, Slumdog would win 6 out of the 9 possible (BP/BD/Editing/Cinematography/Sceenplay/Song or Score. All top wins but praise allah, it wouldn’t be a true sweep.
I don’t want silly wins in sound and music categories just to rack up a high number. This isn’t ROTK.
Maybe the Academy just didn’t like Into the Wild, the film, and it had nothing to do with Penn. Don’t see how this relates to Penn not winning this year.
If the Academy hated him so much then why did Milk get 8 nominations?
“It is rather shocking and shameful that Slumdog has 10 Oscar nods. A sweep would even more discredit the Oscars.
Slumdog will not age well and will be counted as 1 of the most disappointing wins of the decade along with A Beautiful Mind,
”
Thank You!
[...] up hardware at the Writers Guild of America awards on Saturday as well.) As Sasha Stone and others have suggested, it is a narrative that will likely hold into the Oscars, with the emotional momentum behind [...]
“shameful”???? Let it be said that Awards Daily Loser TDK fanboys never ever used hyperbole.
I bet even Sean Penn is pulling for Mickey this time around. Awards don’t seem to mean much to Penn and this is probably a once-in-a-lifetime shot for Mickey. It would certainly be a well-deserved win for him, same as it would be for Penn.
I bet even Sean Penn is pulling for Mickey this time around.
That’s what I think.
“I bet even Sean Penn is pulling for Mickey this time around.”
That’s what I think.
But if he had said it publicly, Penn would be assured the win.
@ Mike,
I think you forget Russell Crowe who won the BFCA, the Globe, the SAG and the BAFTA and lost the Oscar!
And let’s face it! Kate won the Globe/SAG in supporting, so it’s no foregone conclusion. Meryl is an American treasure and I think she’ll get lots of votes there and still win the Oscar. She doesn’t have only the SAG. She has the BFCA as well!
I’m beginning to think of Frank Langella as the winner. He’s been there all season long and he’s in a film voters like a lot. It’s his film’s best shot at a win & he’s a great stage actor. He won the Tony for the same part & he could get the vote of these who for some reason dislike Rourke and Penn. Come on, Rourke/Penn aren’t among the most well-liked people in LA. The last time two people were really head-to-head for an award (in 2002), the dark horse emerged to win. But Brody had the film that was getting the momentum. And Langella has the film people like, but don’t love. So could it happen? Could he be the winner? I’d say Yes.
Does anyone else see Milk getting NO Oscars? After all, it is possible. The Oscar voters have continuously shown that they will vote for whatever they want to vote for. In 2006, Good Night, and Good Luck. went 0 for 6. In 2004, Seabiscuit went 0 for 7. In 2003, Gangs of New York went 0 for 10……….
Yes I see the possibility of Milk getting no Oscars which is a shame because it is one of the best films of 2008 and also worthy of the Best Picture award (unlike The Reader and Frost/Nixon).
Slumdog Millionaire is a movie that should sweep. It’s a classic, unique different kind of storytelling. Movies like this don’t come a long often.
I won’t be surprised if Button will be the biggest loser at this year’s Oscars and goes 0 for 13. TDK will win most of the technical awards.
Penelope Cruz is awful. She didn’t deserve all those critic awards, she didn’t deserve the Bafta and she doesn’t deserve the Oscar. I just hope she doesn’t win. Don’t give her the Oscar, please! NO WAY! Give it to Viola, Amy, Marisa or Taraji who deserve it more. She’s annoying in Vicky Cristina Barcelona. She only screams, shouts and smokes! Please she can’t win because she’s not as great as the other nominated actresses. I repeat it: she’s awful.
kate winslet is the greatest, the smartest and the prettiest woman on earth. i love her and this year the Oscar is hers. She’s overdue!
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