“You wanna know how I got these scars?”
The Academy has historically NOT buckled under outside pressure. Even in the face of the year’s most interesting performance, if they didn’t like it, they didn’t like it. We’re talking warm fuzzies here. We’re talking, “we like you to be good, just not better…” to quote a line from Postcards from the Edge. Maybe it isn’t even a case of that, because the actors in SAG unanimously said Heath deserved it.
When everyone aligns behind one specific person that happens to star in a movie they didn’t particularly like, no one watches over what they do in the privacy of their own home, sometimes weird shit can go down. It would be really embarrassing for them but that is one gene they don’t seem to possess: the ability, in large numbers, to be embarrassed by their choices.
I’m not saying I have the nerve to not predict him but my experience with these people tells me there is a really good chance that this will be the big upset of the night, if there is one. I don’t think it will be Best Picture. Short of this potential hideousness taking place (pity the poor fool who has to stand up and accept that award in Heath’s place), I do not forsee any major upsets. Let’s do a quick rundown of the still-sort-of-open races and the locked ones:
Best Picture - locked, Slumdog
Best Director-locked, Slumdog
Adapted Screenplay-locked, Slumdog
Original Screenplay-open – Milk vs. Wall-E (freak chance of Courtney Hunt taking it)
Actor-Mickey Rourke v. Sean Penn — weird freak chance of Frank Langella slipping in
Actress-Kate Winslet v. Meryl Streep — weird freak chance of Anne Hathaway sneaking in
Supporting Actor – Heath Ledger, most think locked (I am still worried), if not him, Downey, Jr. because of his great year and because they kind of liked Iron Man.
Editing-Slumdog, probably locked.
Cinematography-Slumdog, probably locked – Benjamin Button is another strong possibility.
Art Direction-Benjamin Button probably locked.
Costume-Benjamin Button, probably locked.
Sound-Slumdog v. Dark Knight v. Wall-E
Sound Editing-Slumdog v. Dark Knight v. Wall-E
Foreign Language — Waltz with Bashir v. The Class
Doc Feature — Man on Wire (with a slight chance for Trouble the Water to upset)
Animated Feature — locked, Wall-E
Makeup–Button
Visual Effects–Button v. Dark Knight
Score — locked, slumdog.
Song — all three in contention
127 Responses for "Why Heath Ledger Might Not…And the Locks so Far"
The Duchess could be considered a strong contender (might be the front runners) in the category of costume design.
The Dark Knight as the frontrunner in the Soud areas.
No, Heath Ledger will definately win.
There will be some discreet surprises, maybe in supporting actress (you forgot to mention that category) or best actress (not Streep, but Leo could be surprise winner).
And, of course, some mild surprises in the tech categories, as they always happen.
Oh, yeah: You definately underestimate “The Duchess” for costume design!
If he loses it will be the dumbest move in the history of the Oscars.
I don’t think Heath Ledger will win either. The academy wasn’t as taken with TDK as everyone else was.
Where is supporting actress?
Supporting Actor – Heath Ledger, most think locked (I am still worried), if not him, Downey, Jr. because of his great year and because they kind of liked Iron Man.
RD Jr. has three things against him: 1) a nomination for a role in a gross comedy, 2) the “comeback” role in a comic-book movie, like ::ahem:: TDK, and 3) Mickey Rourke working a similar angle.
Every time I see clips from Doubt, I remember how good PSH’s performance was. But it’s not his year.
Shannon, playing the Joker in ’50s suburbia, cannot win, for that reason alone.
I think Josh Brolin is the possible spoiler here, depending on how Milk does elsewhere.
Costume-Benjamin Button, probably locked.
The Duchess is LOCKED here.
What about Supporting Actress?
Fair predictions, but i have this weird feeling that Slumdog might not as be in the bag for best picture as everybody thinks. Slumdog has its foreign outlook(the first half in in Indian) and the lack of ensemble American cast against it. Everybody was saying and predicting Brokeback Mountain taking the best picture(Winner of PGA/DGA/WGA/Golden Globes/Bafta/BFCA/, even fucking Indepedent Spirit Award and Venice film festival), i know the reason it did not win the best picture was probably due in large part of the general homophobia of the AMPAS members. It just goes to tell you that AMPAS members could disagree with the critics and buzz and go their way. If there were an upset(I think there is a chance), I agree with Roger Ebert, I think Milk could pull an stunning upset. It is the kind of film that touches a lot of people, and also, don’t forget, we might have underestimated the role of politics in this award season(The passage of Prop 8 and all that).
I personally love Slumdog and Milk, but I think Milk is an excellent film with wonderful dircetion, acting, writing, and is highly moving.
Anyhow, it is safe to say Slumdog as a lock for best pic, but,logistically speaking. If a stunning upset could happen to Brokeback Monutain, there could be a chance that the upset could take place with Slumdog.
As for as original screenplay, I think Milk has it in the bag, and I am saying that because Milk is the most moving screenplay among the 5, and it’s got the most buzz and nomination among the 5 best screenplay nominees, and its winning of WGA did not hurt either.
Anyway, I can’t wait till until next Sunday, and I hope I will be thrilled again by some stunning surprises just like when TDK failed to get the main nods.(Everybody said it was a lock!),,No offense intended.
I really don’t think Heath Ledger will be upset. I think people still think he should have been awarded for Brokeback and now there’s a reason to honor him in a way that’s not controversial.
What I find alarming is that Slumdog and BB may dominate the awards, which just isn’t fair. Maybe the Academy will surprise us, I don’t know.
One category left off the list above is Supporting Actress–isn’t that still open, despite the assumption that Cruz will win it?
People keep saying the academy didn’t like TDK so Heath will lose, but globes definitely didn’t like TDK and heath won there, same for the SAGS, same for the Baftas (which gave TDK just as many nominations as the Oscars).
“they kind of liked Iron Man.”
So they liked iron man, but gave it less technical nods than TDK? Just because TDK wasn’t nominated in the other big categories (Picture, Director, Screenplay) doesn’t mean they hated the film. By that logic than it would mean that they must of REALLY hated Iron Man because it only got two nominations.
Paul is right; Brolin could upset, depending on how well Milk does.
I personally think Milk could win best picture. It 95% won’t, but I don’t see any of the other films doing it.
How nasty would it be for the Academy to take a swipe like that at the ‘general public’ by not giving Ledger the win? And more than that, Ledger’s IS the best performance in a supporting role. It is iconic and is the performance from any category that people will remember for years. It should win.
I think the Oscars will go down like this:
Pic-Slumdog
Dir-Boyle
Actor-Penn
Actress-Winslet
S.Actor-Ledger
S.Actress-Cruz
Should be like this, however:
Pic-Milk
Dir-Boyle
Actor-Penn
Actress-Streep or Leo
S.Actor-Ledger
S.Actress-Tomei
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
This is one of the most wide-open races, IMO, although it will likely come down to Penelope Cruz or Viola Davis. Sasha, can you update this page?
Also, I’m predicting The Duchess for costumes, but you can never be sure.
If any film wins best picture it certainly won’t be (Spoiled) Milk. The winners, or in this case Rourke Vs. Penn, Streep vs. Winslet, are locked except in supporting actress, where everyone can win except Henson.
I am not buying the Heath upset explanation. He is as much a lock as Danny Boyle. You say “they didn’t particularly like” the dark knight(which has 8 nominations), so they may pass on Heath and go with the tropic thunder actor. Comic-book movies are not their typical M.O., but neither is comedy. While I agree the academy members were not crazy about TDK, the idea that they will go with RDjr does not compute.
Pic, Dir Adapt screenplay- Slumdog
Original Screenplay-Milk
Actor- Rourke v Penn (not enough Frost/Nixon love for Langella upset)
Actress-Kate Winslet.
Supporting Actor – Heath Ledger LOCKED
Supporting actress- Cruz (NGNG Viola)
Editing-Slumdog
Cinematography-Slumdog
Art Direction-Benjamin Button
Costume-Benjamin Button v The Duchess(Based on the last two years, I wouldn’t count out the duchess)
Sound-Slumdog v. Dark Knight
Sound Editing-Slumdog v. Dark Knight
Foreign Language — Waltz with Bashir
Doc Feature — Man on Wire – Locked
Animated Feature — locked, Wall-E
Makeup–Button
Visual Effects–Button
Score — locked, slumdog.
Song — jai Ho
The guy in Revolutionary Road was amazing…simply amazing. If Ledger doesn’t win, he should win. I could care less about this category though, In fact I could care less about the 2009 Oscars really because the nominees are boring, safe, flat and the academy took no major risks.
All I’m interested in is
KATE WINNING BEST ACTRESS…
I also want The Reader to win best picture but I’ll be find if it goes to the SLUMS, oh I mean Slumdog.
Regardless of what happens, KATE NEEDS TO WIN HER OSCAR. If she doesn’t, MARK MY WORDS, I AM BOYCOTTING THE OSCARS FOR LIFE. I am sick of how they diss talent for the sake of pulling an upset or telling a story ( Jennifer Hudson underdog story, reese witherspoon, Scorcese snubs, Halle Berry race story etc etc).
I wouldn’t consider Wall-E a lock. Kung Fu Panda swept the Annies; it stole every single award from Wall-E. The only people who are really crazy about Wall-E are the critics, and as we all know the critics don’t mean squat when it comes to the Oscars.
kATE WILL WIN, BUT IT SHOULD BE ANNE HATHAWAY
If Heath Ledger doesn’t win, which I am feeling is more and more likely, it is not because the Academy does not like “The Dark Knight” but because they have NEVER rewarded a posthumous nomination other than Peter Finch’s in Network. One can argue that James Dean’s performances in “East of Eden” and “Giant” are more iconic than Heath Ledger’s in “The Dark Knight” will ever be, but Dean lost both posthumous nominations. I think the Academy just wants to give awards to LIVING people, plain and simple.
Pressure to award Heath? People genuinly like his performance in TDK. Yes, there`s a lot of “if he doesn`t win…” concerns among fans but it isn`t like voters so far have been reluctant to award him but had to give in.
@Chris T.
“The only people who are really crazy about Wall-E are the critics, and as we all know the critics don’t mean squat when it comes to the Oscars.”
The 6 Wall-E oscar nomination including Best original screenplay say otherwise. Kung Fu Panda has only 1 nomination. Factor in the academy’s Pixar love and you have a LOCK.
The Annie people were drunk.
I agree with Jorge. Kate will win, but Hathaway deserves it.
And why are we doubting Heath Ledger’s chances now???
He has that win in the bag. I disagree with anyone that says TDK doesn’t have enough support. Regardless of it’s Best Picture snub, it still garnered 8 nominations!. HEATH WILL WIN!. I don’t think the fact that he’s dead should hurt him or help him. He simply was the best out of the five.
The Duchess is definitely LOCKED for Best Costume. It’s already been winning awards, and those costumes are by far the most impressive of the nominees. What makes you think otherwise?
And I think Heath is a lock at this point. The Academy loved Heath, and they (like every other Awards group) want to honor his legacy and his amazing performance.
I can’t anyone who says that Hathaway should win over Kate seriously. I just can’t.
I think Heath will win. If he doesn’t, though, the person who wins better damn well acknowledge him and be humble about the surprise win. You couldn’t have an “I’m King of the World!’ moment afterwards.
I’m one of the people who is not worried at all about whether Heath is going to win supporting. To me the win seems about as sure as we can get when predicting the Oscars. If he’s not a lock, then there isn’t such a thing as a lock. If he’s not considered a lock, then I don’t think Slumdog should be considered a lock in BP, or Boyle for director, etc etc.
As I see it, BP, director, adapted screenplay, and supporting actor are locked in. The other four categories are less certain.
It would be the biggest shock in Oscar history if Ledger didn’t win, making the BROKEBACK defeat at the hands of CRASH a minor surprise. I do understand the need to examine all the tangible possibilities, but methinks Ledger’s win is even more certain than the rightly expected SLUMDOG dominance. Downey and Shannon would be fighting for the second most votes, although in a critical sense Brolin will amass a formidable total.
Afrika, thanks to your post, I think you and I are now best friends. hehe
-Vincent
I would not want to be the person who upsets and beats Ledger and if it PSH again the poor guy will have to move to a far distant land just to get away from all the Ledger fans.
The only real locks from my vantage point are Supporting Actor, Best Director, Best Animated Feature, and Best Adapted Screenplay with Ledger, Boyle, Wall-E, and Slumdog Millionaire getting the kudos.
There are the “sorta locks” like Best Picture, Best Editing, Best Score, Best Costume, and Best Art Direction with Slumdog getting the first three and then the Duchess and Benjamin Button respectively.
Everything else is either open or between 2-3 nominees competitively.
It is so sad that 1 of the biggest elements that make Wall-E such a success will loose out to Slumdog or TDK. Wall-E will loose both the sound awards because the entire Academy votes for the Sound categories and they don’t know shit about sound. If it had only been the sound branch, Wall-E would sweep both the categories in a cakewalk.
I know Winslet will win but it will be like Scorsese, she’ll win for a much much lesser work than what she is capable of. I love Streep but the nomination itself was disgusting, a win would be horrible.
I need only 2 awards to make me happy on Oscar night – Best Original Screenplay & Best Score for Wall-E, the rest I truly don’t care.
Though it is not going to happen, I wouldn’t mind at all if Ledger lost to Brolin. It would be truly a great and very deserving win.
Vincent
I agree, we are best friends now
You are the only person on this forum who understands my train of thought
-Afrika
Let’s remember Kate was nominated for the wrong movie. She was even stronger in Revolutionary Road. Even with that in mind though, she is still a lock to win.
As for Heath, he’d win even if he were still alive. It was that strong a performance, especially compared to the others in that race.
Sam, I agree. Also, TDK’s BP/BD snub was more likely due to the AMPAS preferential voting system than them not liking the film. What we had been seeing throughout the season was TDK placing in the top five, but always as #2, 3, 4 or 5 on critic’s lists. Judging from the 8 Oscar noms it garnered, they must have had some positive feelings about the film, and a lot of it was due to Ledger.
Another thought…AMPAS will never again have the opportunity to award Ledger, so if they want to honor him it must be now. The other actors will have more opportunities.
I’d love for IN BRUGES to upset in the Original Screenplay category. If Milk and WALL-E split the vote, I could see it happening. After all, it’s possible a number of the academy voters could vote based on the results of the BAFTAs. Fingers crossed. (Regardless of its chances, I’m still predicting it because it’s a sentimental favorite.)
The only way I can see Milk and WALL-E splitting the vote is if they tie for the win in a real “split”, because, other than that, how are those two films stealing votes from each other? More likely that In Bruges, Frozen River and Happy-Go-Lucky are splitting the indie/undergog votes.
Why do people always think that if the two strong contenders “split” the vote, a third movie will win? It doesn’t make sense to me…
Anyway, I want to believe Anne Hathaway has a chance to win best actress. I just…don’t know if she does.
Rourke
Winslet
Ledger
Cruz
Deal with it!
Francis:
If Heath Ledger doesn’t win, which I am feeling is more and more likely, it is not because the Academy does not like “The Dark Knight” but because they have NEVER rewarded a posthumous nomination other than Peter Finch’s in Network. One can argue that James Dean’s performances in “East of Eden” and “Giant” are more iconic than Heath Ledger’s in “The Dark Knight” will ever be, but Dean lost both posthumous nominations. I think the Academy just wants to give awards to LIVING people, plain and simple.
I totally agree with you. The academy doesn’t like to give awards to dead people, James Dean is the perfect example.
But I don’t know if they would give the award to Robert Downey Jr, because is a comedy but is true they like Iron Man, AFI gave IM best movie of 2008. However if Ledger doesn’t get it, would be Brolin or maybe Downey
Someone said that if Ledger is not a lock, then nothing is. This is true. It’s as lock as locks get.
Supporting actor is easy, but supporting actress… wow… I’ve never witnessed a year like this. Any of the five could win, but I see Viola Davis winning this one. I’m pretty good at predicting actors – last year, I had them all correct. Other categories – not so much (I predicted TWBB upset in best picture.
Somehow, I wouldn’t be surprised if Slumdog didn’t win best picture. Of the films nominated, Milk was best IMO – maybe many other people feel that way, too. Maybe.
Even though I really liked Slumdog Millionaire, the fact that it seems to be sweeping every category it’s in is very questionable. It was good, but it when it comes to the technical categories, there are more deserving people. The sound mixing, for example, was much more impressive in TDK and Wall*E than Slumdog, yet Slumdog appears to be the front-runner.
This appears to be a really big problem, considering that actors (for example) probably know next to nothing about sound or editing. Yet, because Slumdog is their definite choice for Best Picture, they’ll more than likely vote for it in any other category it’s in, even if it’s not the best.
I’m not try to discredit Slumdog’s accomplishments, but much like the situation where The Reader got a BP nomination ahead of TDK/Wall*E/Wrestler, this is a case where a film is getting accolades that should go to other, more deserving films. I guess, for me, the bells sounded off on this as soon as Slumdog won Best Ensamble Cast. That’s when I realised that this Oscar ceremony is going to be very predictable and very dull.
Oh, and Heath will win. If not, prepare for the most awkward moment in Academy history.
A decent parallel to Heath would be Renee Zellwegger in 2003. The Academy clearly wasn’t smitten with the film (Cold Mountain also missed in a Best Picture), but they wanted this actor to have Oscar-winning in front of their name, and they weren’t going to be denied.
Seriously, there’s only been one performance to win the SAG, the Globe, and the BAFTA and not win, and that was Russell Crowe, who had the detriment of being persona non grata at the time, and probably still would have won at the Oscars had he not just won the year before. There is no precedence for the Academy not to give this award to Ledger, and Oscar never breaks with precedence (unless it involves gay cowboys).
Ledger is as close to a lock as one can be. There are always possible arguments for an upset, and there are always reasons why others might win. That doesn’t mean there is any likelihood it will happen.
One of the reasons Ledger will win is that he truly does give the most memorable, iconic performance in his category. People often say that the beloved Spencer Tracy was the front runner in 1967 and he lost because no one wants to give an Oscar to a dead guy. But in 1967, Spencer was the weakest in the field. He was up against four other iconic performances: Dustin Hoffman in The Graduate, Warren Beatty in Bonnie and Clyde, Paul Newman in Cool Hand Luke, and Rod Steiger in In the Heat of the Night (the winner). Each of those performances was, in its way, iconic and of historical importance. Tracy gave a sweet performance in Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner,but it’s hard to see how he could have won against the others in his field. I don’t think it had to do with him being dead — it had to do with the strong competition.
As good as others were in Ledger’s category, Ledger stands head and shoulders above them in terms of the cultural impact that his character had and will have in future.
The other reason why I think Ledger will win is that I think the Academy is actually more sentimental about these things than it was in the past. James Dean was an icon, but a real outsider to the Academy. They didn’t feel warm and fuzzy about him. Ledger was an outsider, but a hugely well-liked outsider within the Academy. The mainstream Academy accepts these types more than they did in the 1950s. And I think our entertainment industry, in its obsession with personal stories and traumas and tragedy, has actually created a mindset in Hollywood that makes it particularly likely that an actor who died tragically young will win an Oscar posthumously.
@ Karen
I agree the TDK BP snub was most likely due to the preferential ballot system. I would imagine a lot of the older voters kept TDK off their ballots completely and that could have made all the difference even though it was high on other ballots. We can never know for sure. TDK is not a movie that I would expect older, more traditional voters to like or consider as best picture. It is a matter of taste and it not a genre that appeals to them or they appreciate. I wanted TDK to get some love because it is not the typical oscar movie and the outstanding effort put into a movie that could easily have been a regular popcorn flick needs to be recognized. but i don’t see some 70-year old sharing my enthusiasm about the movie. The movies 8 nominations are still very significant regardless of its genre and Heath is locked in.
Sasha,
Thanks for quoting Postcards. One of my favorites – a crime that the screenplay and MacLaine for supporting actress were not nominated. Might have gotten more love, but I suspect the Academy viewed it as a skewering of Debbie Reynolds – which I don’t think it was at all. There are so many classic lines from that movie – should have beaten Dances with Wolves for screenplay. I don’t begrudge Kathy Bates for her win for Misery, but Meryl was awesome.
“That’s a comedy RULE?”
“I don’t want life to imitate art; I want life to be art.”
I think the line from Postcards From The Edge is, “You want me to do well, just not better than you,” and she’s talking to her mother.
One can argue that James Dean’s performances in “East of Eden” and “Giant” are more iconic than Heath Ledger’s in “The Dark Knight” will ever be, but Dean lost both posthumous nominations.
Make of these dates what you will. Timing they say is everything:
March 9, 1955: East of Eden premiere
September 30, 1955: Dean’s death
October 27, 1955: Rebel Without a Cause premiere
March 21, 1956: Academy Awards for 1955 (Dean lost for East of Eden)
October 10, 1956: Giant premiere
March 27, 1957: Academy Awards for 1956 (Dean lost for Giant)
Picture: A slight chance that Button might win
Actor: Sean Penn
Actress: Meryl Streep, Kate Winslet should have been nominated for Rev Road. Her perf in THe Reader is too weak to beat Meryl!
Supporting Actor: It might be Josh Brolin, you never know
Supporting Actress: Viola Davis, or even Amy Adams
if you think there’s a chance in hell heath won’t win, then I don’t know why you’re writing for this site.
I still wouldn’t be surprised by a director/picture split. And although I’m very certain of Boyle’s win, I’m not 100% sold on Slumdog taking the big prize (for various reasons, all already discussed here, most notably in post #8).
So my question: should Slumdog lose best picture, what is the spolier? I think it’s Milk but continue to be challenged by arguments insisting it would be Button or even The Reader. (Have read nothing suggesting a F/N suprise).
Is there a consensus on what the “other” best picture would be?
Just a few thoughts…
I think The Duchess has the Costume Design award in the bag. I made the stupid mistake of betting against Elizabeth: The Golden Age last year in this category, simply because almost everyone else seemed to count it out. I just followed the crowd and didn’t listen to my gut. But this year, I’m going with The Duchess. The Academy loves lavish dresses in period flicks.
I think Benjamin Button takes Visual Effects. I think that is pretty much locked at this point.
I still think Hellboy II owns the Makeup Oscar. The creature design is so in your face that I think the Academy voters will go for it.
While Slumdog is going to win a shitload of awards, I think it will lose the Cinematography Oscar. In that case, I think it could go to Benjamin Button, but I have this strange nagging feeling that it’ll go to Tom Stern for Changeling. I know that sounds crazy, but I’m going to stick with it.
As for Heath, I will freak out if he loses. So will many others. And while I am nervous about that category, I am confident that he will win the award. But nothing is for certain.
Following up on #42 John’s point, Crowe also lost because there was a big last minute push to get Denzel Washington the award, when Julia Roberts basically said that they’d be idiots not to give Denzel the Oscar. There is no last minute groundswell of support for any of the other nominees. Ledger is the most locked win of the night.
“Is there a consensus on what the “other” best picture would be?”
I think this is the reason why I DONT think Slumdog Millionaire will lose. They’re just not one movie all the anti-Slumdog people can go rally under. Benjamin Button, Milk, and The Reader all have their solid camps so I don’t see a unified front for that one film to trip up Slumdog Millionaire.
The other thing I think that counters the “Dean didn’t win posthumously so Heath won’t either” is that James Dean only made three films before he died. Heath made far more, touched more people, etc. And he also had a nom while he was alive, so I think it will be harder for people to overlook than Dean’s two noms after his death.
There’s no way Heath loses.
The logic that “The Academy didn’t like Dark Knight, so Ledger might lose” has one simple problem: the Academy still liked The Dark Knight. You’re saying that just because it didn’t get a Best Pic nod the Academy must hate it, but in all likelihood it probably just finished out of the top 5 – I bet it would have been the 6th or 7th nominee. And it still got a boatload of nominations, so there’s clearly a lot of love for it out there (certainly more than there is for Tropic Thunder, which features the guy you think might upset).
Great, now there’s a real Ryan and now an “Other Ryan”? I guess I’ll just have to continue being “ryan with the lower case ‘r’”.
Anyhoo, the voters I’ve talked to (which means nothing in the grand scheme of things) love Heath Ledger’s performance. They go on to say that it was the best, most daring and interesting performance of the year. I mention this, because… these are also people that didn’t really like the film. So, that being said, I don’t think the lack of a Best Picture nomination hurts Ledger.
And I agree with “Other Ryan”, I’m not a big fan of Slumdog Millionaire, though I thought it was entertaining. However, I don’t think it should win Best Picture. Though if I had a vote… I would vote for it, because of the five… it is the best. As much as people don’t want to believe it, if The Dark Knight was nominated people would be talking about a 3-way race between Slumdog, Dark Knight, and Milk (which I’m definitely not a fan of). Why? Because The Dark Knight is where the “ho-hum” Slumdog voters want to be. (Or they’re Wall-E fans… but they’re not as disappointed.)
If Ladger doesn’t win is not because the Academy ”hate The Dark Knight” (I don’t think they do), is because the Academy doesn’t like to give awards to dead people.
I was “Ryan” for awhile, then all these other Ryans kept popping up, so I’m now “Other Ryan.” I like it.
In any case, I think the same thing can really be said about the Best Supporting category. Other than Heath Ledger, is there one performance that people are rallying behind?
Sure if they really like Milk, it’ll be Brolin. Or they can have a Doubt sweep with Streep, Davis, and Hoffman winning. Or as most of you said, people LOVE RDJ especially this year so why not? And then there’s Shannon who everyone thought was DOA until his name suddenly appeared as a nominee.
But no. The only person that has people rallying behind is Heath Ledger. There is no movement for any of the other actors and even if there was, they all truly split the “not awarding Ledger” vote.
It’s seems true that the Academy has shown a great deal that they don’t really love giving awards to dead people, but this year is different. I mean Ledger is running in the weakest category of the year and he really doesn’t have anyone to worry about b/c the other nominees weren’t nearly as great as he was and I’m sure the majority know this. His performance has made it’s mark on history and they can’t ignore that. Ledger will win.
I dont agree with some of your “locks”.
Man on Wire wont loose, there is no chance for Trouble the water.
Costume, art direction and editing locked ? Really ?!
Ledger wont loose or the Academy will loose even more credibility.
The race is still open in the artistic and tech fields. Acting, director, picture and adapted screenplay are the only ones locked.
“His performance has made it’s mark on history”
James Dean performances were excellent, he win no Oscar, BUT he made mark on history because his acting was that good. People remember the performances no because Dean didn’t win is because his acting was outstanding.
Ledger performance might be good but if it made it’s mark on history NO because it excellent, is because was full of controversy.
I can’t add a lot to the reasoning about why Ledger WILL win (because he will) especially considering the stack up of awards his performance already has won (and isn’t that a barometer that is frequently used on this site?). My one contribution has to do with Robert Downey Jr. I don’t think he’ll get the votes this time around, not just because of the Ledger factor and the Tropic Thunder factor, but because folks believe that he’s a terrific actor who still has time and lots of movies waiting him, and chances to win an Oscar for an important role and movie.
If pressed I would say that Brolin is the strongest competition and I would LOVE for Milk to get every award possible, but it’s just not his year.
Karen S: There’s a difference between Ledger and Dean. Dean was not well known before his nominations. He basically hit it big after his death. On the other hand, we knew Ledger way before his death and he recieved a nomination before his death, a performance that alot of people thought he should have won for. He should and will win this year.
why keeps Oscar nominating people for the wrong roles?
Downey Jr was even better in Iron Man (only it wasn’t that showy)
Brolin was even better in W. (only the movie wasn’t that loved)
Kidman was better in The Others than in Moulin Rouge! (only the movie was horror and MR! was a BP nominee to be).
But both Downey Jr and Brolin were robbed of noms recently (Zodiac and No Country for Old Men), and that’s the reason why in the end they have a minor chance to upset. In most probabilities, their loss this year and the sense of being owed will determine that they will become Oscar winners pretty soon (think of Javier Bardem after losing for Before Night Falls, the snub of The Sea Inside and ending sweeping for No Country For Old Men). So Heath is SO winning and then they will note down on their “to do” list awarding Robert and Josh as soon as possible.
To the people who saying, for example, that the Academy won’t vote for WALL-E in the sound categories because they don’t understand…
Don’t actors JUST vote for the acting Oscars and Picture, sound people JUST vote for sound categories and Picture, and so on?
Or am I mistaken? I’m 95% sure that, say, Sean Penn doesn’t get to vote in the Costume category.
I thought that in the final voting, everyone votes on everything except for the docs, shorts, and other specialized-release categories.
If Heath does not win i would feel sorry for whomever wins intsead of him. For one he would get booed and he would always be knowned as the dude who took Heath’s oscar away from him. The only way the winner could save face is if he were not to accept the award and go into the audinece and give it to Heath’s little girl or Michelle Williams if they are there.
I think the only one that has a slight chance to upset is Josh Brolin simily because he has been on a roll these past couple of years. Hoffman is the one least likely to win because he would get booed the most because he was the guy who took Heath’s oscar away from him a couple of years ago. Downey is not going to win because i don’t think the academy likes Tropic Thunder, he is in black face and though good in the role he only got nominated because he had a great year and was the main reason that Iron Man was a hit. I think the only reason Shannon got a nomination is because the academey really hated Revolutionary Road especially the winny leads. They probably cheered when he told them off in his big scene.
I for one was pissed a couple of years ago when i heard that they got rid of Crispin Glover and instead hired Heath to play the joker. I am a big fan of Crispin and it is a shame that he is not hardly in any movies. I just did not think that Heath who never really impress me that much would be good. But after seeing the Dark Knight i change my mind. If they were to go with Chrispin it would not have been as big of a hit. Heath is the only thing i liked about The Dark Knight. I kept rooting for him to kill Batman.
Dead or alive, if Heath doesn’t win, based on precursors it will be the biggest shock in the history of the Oscars. He’s won everything.
Yes, brainypirate, is right, I believe.
“Hoffman is the one least likely to win because he would get booed the most because he was the guy who took Heath’s oscar away from him a couple of years ago.”
WHAT??????????????
There will be no booing if Heath does not win. This is not the MTV Awards.
Editing seems to be going to Slumdog, but look at Milk. Editing is the best there. The film is probably the fastest 130 mins of 2008 without the feel of being rushed at any time.
If there is any justice IMO – Milk would surprise with four Oscars:
Picture
Actor
Editing
Original Screenplay
That scenario would still leave Slumdog an easy four Oscars:
Director
Adapted Screenplay
Cinematography
Score
I think it’ll be The Duchess for costume. The Academy likes ‘em big n’ poofy, eg Marie Antoinette.
“Hoffman is the one least likely to win because he would get booed the most because he was the guy who took Heath’s oscar away from him a couple of years ago.”
WHAT??????????????
This make me laugh, I’m wondering the same thing: WHAT?
I agree with Paul Outlaw this is not the MTV awards
They might not boo the winner but they are not going to be that much of a applause and it would be so quite you can hear a pin drop.
Speaking of those lame MTV movie awards does anyone else remember when Christain Bale won and he started to cry. I understand if it was a oscar but it was fucking stupid Mtv award. No remembers who wins or cares. I just can’t believe this is the same guy who went into a 3 minute cuss filled rant on a movie set.
More likely that In Bruges, Frozen River and Happy-Go-Lucky are splitting the indie/undergog votes.
Yes. To go a bit further, I think In Bruges and Happy-Go-Lucky will split the Brit vote. Were that not the case, In Bruges would be a real threat. As it is, Milk will walk it.
Only political speeches may get a few loud noises from the audience, but not if someone wins over another – most of them voted for that winner. Home audience, they can do whatever they like in front of their tv-sets.
Hah, I’m picturing a scenario where Robert Downey Jr wins this, he walks up to the podium, kindly and humbly pushes the Oscar statuette and the trophy girl away and says: “thank you very much, but I can’t accept this”. Then RDJr walks back to his seat and the trophy girl looks stupid on stage. Cue music.
Slumdog Millionaire
Boyle
Rourke
Streep
Ledger
Davis
I have predicted way even before the movie was made that whoever does the Sister Aloysius on the big screen will win an Oscar for it. Streep was just lucky to have been asked by Shanley to do it. It could have been Close, Keaton, Sarandon, Fields or Lange. But knowing that Streep is way above, skills-wise, the mentioned actors that I mentioned here, it sealed the Oscar for the role.
Yeah, there certainly won’t be booing, but there’s no need to worry about backlash, but there’s no consensus candidate. Downey, Brolin, Hoffman, and Shannon all have a minor amount of support, but the Academy’s not rallying around one candidate in particular. They know that Downey & Brolin both will have shots down the road, Hoffman already has a trophy, and Shannon is lucky to be nominated. Had he been nominated, Dev Patel might have had a microscopic shot to be swept up in a wave (ala Juliette Binoche), but even then he would have been a bigger underdog than the one he played onscreen.
What? MTV Movie Awards don’t matter? But… but… Marisa Tomei and Christian Slater won Best Kiss in 1996. I think it was 1996. I think it was Marisa Tomei and Christian Slater.
I kiiid, I kiiid.
if heath doesn’t win they’ll be a riot
“Well, because everyone awarded Heath, we have to award him too?” (AMPAS)
This is the question that millions of people are scared to hear from AMPAS’ mouth. Listen, people: Josh Brolin WILL WIN and UPSET, just like Adrien Brody, Marcia Gay Harden, xtc
“Hah, I’m picturing a scenario where Robert Downey Jr wins this, he walks up to the podium, kindly and humbly pushes the Oscar statuette and the trophy girl away and says: “thank you very much, but I can’t accept this”. Then RDJr walks back to his seat and the trophy girl looks stupid on stage. Cue music.”
..this would make me laugh and vomit at the same time.
LOCKS FOR 2009
Best Picture/ PUBLIC ENEMIES
Director/kATHRYN BIGELOW/TheHurt Locker
Actor/MORGAN FREEMAN/The Human Factor
Actress/EVAN RACHEL WOOD/Whatever Works
Supporting Actor/MARK RUFFALO/Shutter Island
Supporting Actress/LESLIE MANN/Funny People
Original Screenplay/UP
Adapted Screenplay/THE LOVELY BONES
Cinematography/INGLORIOUS BASTERDS
Film Editing/ GREEN ZONE
Art Direction/NINE
Costume Design/CHERI
Sound Mixing/AVATAR
Visual Effects/WATCHMEN / WHERE THE WILD THINGS ARE
Original Score/THE ROAD
Original Song/TAKING WOODSTOCK
Quote Emily:
“They might not boo the winner but they are not going to be that much of a applause and it would be so quite you can hear a pin drop. Speaking of those lame MTV movie awards does anyone else remember when Christain Bale won and he started to cry. I understand if it was a oscar but it was fucking stupid Mtv award. No remembers who wins or cares. I just can’t believe this is the same guy who went into a 3 minute cuss filled rant on a movie set.”
-End of Quote.
.
I’m still laughing, so if Ledger doesn’t win anybody is going to applause? That mean also if Slumdog win, the cast and crew of the other movies nomines are NOT going to applause, and also if Winslet win the other nomines are not going to applause ethier, have sense to me. (I don’t know if you get the sarcasm)
For those who are saying Milk over WALL-E for Original Screenplay, keep in mind the very, very minimal dialogue of WALL-E. If you’ve ever taken a screenwriting class, you know how difficult that is.
The WALL-E screenplay is one of the best of the last decade. If it is snubbed, I will have lost all faith in the AMPAS. Milk was good because of the directing and acting, not the screenplay. Any disagreement?
Is everyone just thinking Milk will win just so it wins something?
““Hoffman is the one least likely to win because he would get booed the most because he was the guy who took Heath’s oscar away from him a couple of years ago.”
WHAT??????????????
Make that a double WHAT?????????????????????????????
a) this IS not the MTV awards and b) if Hoffman took Ledger’s Oscar in 2005, then he also took his SAG, BAFTA, Boston Film Critics, Broadcast Film Critics, Chicago, Golden Globe, Kansas Film Critics, LA film critics, National Board of Review, National Society of Film critics, Online film critics, San Diego film critics, Toronto, Vancouver and Washington DC film critics award.
Thank you HaroldsMaude.
I just hope and pray that when this is all done we will not have to talk about the “acting god”, Heath Ledger, any more. It has to be the most annoying thing about this award season.
Quote Emily:
“They might not boo the winner but they are not going to be that much of a applause and it would be so quite you can hear a pin drop. Speaking of those lame MTV movie awards does anyone else remember when Christain Bale won and he started to cry. I understand if it was a oscar but it was fucking stupid Mtv award. No remembers who wins or cares. I just can’t believe this is the same guy who went into a 3 minute cuss filled rant on a movie set.”
-End of Quote.
Scott:
I’m still laughing, so if Ledger doesn’t win anybody is going to applause? That mean also if Slumdog win, the cast and crew of the other movies nomines are NOT going to applause, and also if Winslet win the other nomines are not going to applause ethier, have sense to me. (I don’t know if you get the sarcasm)
LOL Scott.
So Emily do you think Hoffman is just the man who took Ledger award. So who is the guy who act in Capote?
Hey RockMocha, AMEN!
I think you Ledger haters are disgusting. He’s definitely winning. If I had to pick a runner-up, after seeing Milk, I guess it would be Robert Downey Jr. In blackface. His film’s only nomination. That’s how ridiculous this category is.
If pigs start flying and Ledger loses, there will be a small smattering of claps and mostly gasps of shock and looks of disapproval.
I’m not a Ledger hater, he problaby win but talking about ”less applause” or that ”Hoffman is nothing that the guy who took Ledger award” is stupid.
what I dislike is the “he stole the movie so he deserves the Oscar…”, well, he actually had a scene-stealer character, it cames in the own nature of the character (then, the popular quote I’ve written does not make sense), just like Viola Davis comes in ‘Doubt’, Penelope Cruz in ‘Vicky Cristina Barcelona’, Michael Shannon in ‘Revolutionary Road’… Their characters are strong.
and I liked the movie and his performance, but I dislike how everything is destroyed when OSCAR SEASON begins.
I’m not a Ledger hater, but you will have to excuse me for not being blown away by his work here. Yes, he was the beat part of, IMHO, a mediocre film. It is a character written with built in histrionics for mass consumption. Nothing wrong with that. But the infatuation is absurd and sickening. I would give it PSH, Shannon or Brolin before Ledger.
You would have to excuse me if I think you are. How could I not think you are a hater. Are you serious?. No one is saying Heath Ledger is an “acting god”.
Because we think he simply gave the best performance out of the five, he’s over a sudden an “acting god”. You sound very ridiculous and it is very disgusting.
Give this thing to Heath already. I’m so sick of this necrophilia. He was nice, yeah, but people speak as if he was Spencer Tracy. My God, he wasn’t that important. 20 years from now, I don’t think many people, unless TDK fans, his family and friends, will remember this guy anyway.
This place is officially boring. Nothing worthwhile to talk about. We know Heath Ledger is a lock to win this award even BEFORE The Dark Knight came out. Sasha, don’t you have better things to talk about in your blog anymore. I’m tired of The Reader and Benjamin Button and now this. I’m outta here!!!!!
Heath Ledger will win because his was the best performance.
It’s pretty simple if you don’t think too much about it.
The best performance is the one by the actor who completely disappears into their role. Becoming the character & unrecognizable to the audience IS the very definition of great acting.
Heath Ledger gave us this in TDK, and that’s why he deserves to win.
If I was a betting woman, I would put money on Heath Ledger winning on the 22nd. Which he should. Outside of Sean Penn, his was the best film performance of 2008. Period.
BUT I don’t think he’s a lock either. The supporting categories are almost ALWAYS where the big upsets happen. Eddie Murphy won EVERYTHING he was nominated for two years ago, until…
And if Sasha and I need more reasons to be worried, read next week’s Entertainment Weekly with the Twilight kids on the cover. They interviewed an actor, a director and a producer who told the reporter who they voted for. Two of the three DID NOT vote for Ledger.
If Ledger loses, the upset will probably go to Josh Brolin. And the audible gasps followed by stunned silence in the Kodak Theater will be deafening. Brolin will immediately (and unfairly) become the most hated man in America, and the Oscars will officially (and deservingly) be a joke.
I’ve thought about what it would be like if Heath Ledger lost somehow, which would make no sense to me whatsoever. I think a lot of people would feel the same way, and say “what the fuck?” if he ended up losing. I mean, he has won the BAFTA, Golden Globe and SAG. Slumdog Millionaire won all of those as well, and you have that as ‘locked’ for it’s categories.
It would be a huge mistake if Heath didn’t win. A lot of people would be upset, and I think he completely deserves it, even if he was alive right now. He gave the most intriguing and entertaining supporting performance of 2008. He also completely disappeared into the role to the point where you can’t tell it’s Heath Ledger, and the Academy likes that. Just look at Daniel Day-Lewis in There Will Be Blood.
Mary: “Give this thing to Heath already. I’m so sick of this necrophilia. He was nice, yeah, but people speak as if he was Spencer Tracy. My God, he wasn’t that important. 20 years from now, I don’t think many people, unless TDK fans, his family and friends, will remember this guy anyway.”
First of all, “necrophilia” is defined specifically as sexual attraction towards dead bodies, but I know you probably meant it in its literal meaning of “loving the dead.”
Second, he may be no Spencer Tracy, but I would definitely call him the James Dean or River Phoenix of our generation: a young, up and coming promising actor whose life got cut short by tragedy. Ledger would have turned 30 this April, and by that age he would have already had 2 Oscar nominations and possibly a win. Impressive considering only FOUR male actors have ever won an Oscar in their 20’s.
Enough of the Ledger talk. He’s winning regardless of what you thought of his performance.
I’m more interested in the races that are still open. I agree with many of the posters here that The Duchess is the favourite to take costume. Ben Button could take it, but I don’t think it’s the favourite, let alone a lock.
I’m currently picking Changeling to win art direction. This is probably a stupid pick, and I may change my mind, but the production design was universally praised for evoking the era. Ben Button will probably win it, but it’s far from a lock.
Cinematography could go Slumdog or Ben Button’s way. I’m currently picking Slumdog.
I agree that Wall-E and TDK are up for the sound awards. I’m currently picking a split with Wall-E taking effects editing, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Wall-E took both.
Visual Effects could go to any of the three. I’ve been predicting Iron Man here, but given Ben Button’s support, it does seem the likely winner here.
Song is between Jai Ho (the favourite) and Down to Earth- O Saya is not in this at all.
Milk will likely take Original Screenplay, with Wall-E or In Bruges having a slim chance of upsetting.
The acting Oscars do look pretty set now- the only potential upsets being Viola over Cruz and Penn over Rourke.
So there’s my 2 cents. I see the rest as locks going to the obvious choices.
its would be a bloody right royal joke if Heath LEdger were snubbed honestly? its bad enough that the film got snubbed in major categoriess…
Without looking too closely at what everybody else wrote, a few thoughts of mine:
1. Yes, you’re underestimating The Duchess. Costume Design (we’ve seen this in recent years) tends to go to where the fashion parade happens. This is The Duchess this time. Button and Australia have a shot, too.
2. Button in general may not do as well. I can see VFX being taken away by…. Iron Man! Yes, I said it. Why? I couldn’t make my mind up about what my personal favorite is here… and I still haven’t, but Iron Man kinda sticks out because it has the most VISIBLE effects. See, the FX laymen in the Academy might just ask: Wait, where were the big FX in Button and Batman?
3. And Slumdog, much as I love it, should not and WILL not win any of the sound categories. They will be decided between Dark Knight and WALL-E.
4. I somehow see Thomas Newman becoming an Oscar winner this year, but not with Peter Gabriel, but with his score.
Hans: who are the four actors who have won in their 20’s? Interesting discussion.
Button’s strongest chances are in VFX, if it loses that, it’s possible that the film becomes the biggest loser in Oscar history: 13 nominations, no wins. Previous records, of course, are The Turning Point and The Color Purple with 11 nominations each and walked home empty handed. Most recently, Gangs of New York had 10 nominations and zero wins.
I have seen Milk, Slumdog Milionare, and i think that Slumdog is overstimated, doesn’t deserve so many award, Milk desrve more i think is right for Milk 4 oscar, Actor , Screenplay, director and Score.
Heath should win. Let’s not forget Gilliam said that he saw Heath give the best performance from him that he has seen, while filming The Imaginariam. I’m hoping for a chance nod next year. Heath’s chapter is not yet over.
But Heath’s appearance must be quite short (some say he shot 45% of the role which is not bad) and three other actors (incl. Johnny Depp) are playing the same role. It’s hard to be Cate Blanchett, especially when you’re dead. Yes, I know – Heath was one of those, too (I’m Not There).
But who knows. All we know is that Terry Gilliam probably has his biggest hit on his hands – no matter how weird the film turns out to be. And Heath Ledger’s death has a bigger effect on this film’s box office than in TDK’s (which was going to be big no matter what).
filmfemme #101: ” Eddie Murphy won EVERYTHING he was nominated for two years ago, until…”
But we knew there was a good chance that Murphy wouldn’t win because we knew that a lot of people really dislike Murphy, that Murphy was making a lot of crap movies, and that Alan Arkin was a much-loved movie veteran who was in that year’s comedy nominee.
The same thing with Burt Reynolds a few years earlier. He was up against Robin Williams, who had several nominations in Lead and who was up for a more serious turn as a supporting actor. Once Reynolds started publicly bashing his own film, it didn’t take much to see that AMPAS would give the trophy to Williams.
As for the EW article — I’ve noticed that in years past, the choices of the three people they interview often diverge from the winners, which are usually the people we all expect. It’s interesting that people aren’t voting for Ledger, but I don’t recall ever seeing one of those voter confessions predict a surprise win.
(When was the last time we had a completely unexpected winner at the Oscars? Juliette Binoche?)
#94: “I dislike how everything is destroyed when OSCAR SEASON begins.”
In Hollywood, Oscar season never ends — movies are greenlit with Oscar in mind, studios are making campaign plans as soon as the ceremony is over. The whole industry turns on the Oscars and 75% of the movies we see between Labor Day and New Year’s are designed for Oscar glory.
Nothing is destroyed when OSCAR SEASON begins, because everything is created FOR Oscar season.
@ Mary,
I really can’t stand this ‘discussion’.
Heath Ledger is a LOCK. Deal with it. He delivered a great performance and to me – YES! – he’s an actor who showed great promise. I can’t believe somebody thinks he’ll be totally forgotton in twenty years. Have you seen his Brokeback Mountain performance??? I think that’s a performance, which was really deserving of the Oscar!
Stop the Heath hate! It’s absolutely disgusting! And yeah, by the way, based on the performances alone, I think he’s miles ahead of the other four!
@ brainypirate,
let’s talk about Marcia Gay Harden! That was a shocker, I think!
She was the very first (and up to date SOLE) acting winner without a SAG nomination!
[...] Perhaps simply downplaying her expectations due to her passion for the film, Sasha Stone has convinced herself that there is a “really good chance” Ledger will lose: When everyone aligns behind one [...]
So, Iron Man gets two nominations (for Visual/Sound Editing) and the academy “kind of likes” Iron Man. And The Dark Knight gets EIGHT and its a “movie they didn’t particularly like?”
So what you’re saying is that if a movie falls short of the general consensus’ predicted nominations, then the academy hates the movie, absolutely abhors it. But if it exceeds expectations, then they automatically “kind of like” it? Tell me how that makes any sense.
i think it’s going to be a split year in pic/director. i think slumdog wins best picture and fincher takes director. i’ll take slumdog over button anyday. and i’m one of the guys who cried when TDK wasn’t nominated. but if i had my choice in these nominees, i’d vote for Frost/Nixon…which i know most people here hate. but i thought it was the strongest, most-complete film of the lot (keep in mind i haven’t seen Milk, and i understand it could very well be better).
benjamin button was a snore in hindsight, it’s a cliche now, but it’s true that i just kept thinking of forrest gump as i was watching it. and i thoroughly enjoyed slumdog, but i think it dropped the ball in the third act. it went for a safe ending with seen too many times. i didn’t want ot be able to say everything that was going to happen just before it happened. the first 2/3 of the movie though, make it better than button any day.
but i loved frost/nixon. it wasn’t earth-shattering. it wasn’t showy. it didn’t depend on amazing graphics or editing/sound to get it through 2 hours. it was beautifully shot and scored. and the acting was top notch. better than slumdog or button. (i love blanchett, but brad pitt doesn’t emote in his dramas. and the kids in slumdog were fantastic, but the two oldest kids not so much.)
i think if there’s a surprise it’s for langella to win. then man was a powerhouse. and not because he can chew scenery with the best of them, but for the quiet moments. when he was alone. that’s when the man was amazing.
but none it’s the year of slumdog. i’m not stupid. i just wish i had lower expectations of the academy every year. the only time they are surprising is in their disappointment.
WALL-E is a lock for both sound.
[...] No, Heath Ledger will definately win. There will be some discreet surprises, maybe in supporting actress (you forgot to mention that category) or best actress (not Streep, but Leo could be surprise winner). …Continue Reading [...]
welld one colby you said it in your last statement:
“i just wish i had lower expectations of the academy every year. the only time they are surprising is in their disappointment.”
how many other voices here are dissenting on the academy snubbing the dark knight>? mark my words it will haunt them..forever!!
you know the cathegory I’m most pissed of about?
cinematography…slumdog will probably win that too over two works of real genius like the ones of TCCOBB and especially TDK…I don’t even consider director or movie cathegories, they’re already gone, but these technical oscars will be as much disappointing so careful to award slumdog instead of the real deservers…score…editing…cinematography…all gone on the altar of the slumdog…it still sucks…
plenty of talks about shockers, spoilers, uspets, locks
i will go for the biggest shocker of the evening
the upset of all upsets, shockers, and spoilers
and im DEFINITE about this
MELISSA LEO WILL WIN BEST ACTRESS
MELISSA LEO WILL WIN BEST ACTRESS
MELISSA LEO WILL WIN BEST ACTRESS
MELISSA LEO WILL WIN BEST ACTRESS
MELISSA LEO WILL WIN BEST ACTRESS
MELISSA LEO WILL WIN BEST ACTRESS
MELISSA LEO WILL WIN BEST ACTRESS
emily
christian Bale won and MTV award and started to cry? are you serious? lmao lmao lol lmao
I’m more shocked at the fact that someone cries over winning an MTV movie award. lol lol
[...] artwork unveiledWal-Mart is selling Nazi SS skull t-shirts | Bent CornerHistory of the Great Plains NO REST FOR THE AWAKE – MINAGAHET CHAMORRO: Critiquing the … Why Heath Ledger Might Not…And the Locks so FarPlains indians Ledger ArtAnnie Leibovitz’s [...]
Winslet and Ledger are locks. The other two acting categories are up in the air.
I don’t see why people are still hesitant to call Winslet a lock in her category. She has won everything that needs to be won. And she’s the most overdue of them all.
hahaha, so the quote reads: “You wanna know how I got these scars?”
I first read it as “You wanna know how I got these Oscars?”
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