From last night’s Countdown with Keith Olbermann, the video version of Nate Silver’s Oscar stat number crunching, first seen in New York Magazine. (Nate admits that he’s probably really screwed up with his Best Supporting Actress pick.)
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82nd Oscar Ceremony
Hosts: Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin
Producers: Adam Shankman, Bill Mechanic
Director: Hamish Hamilton
Music: Marc Shaiman
Pedro Almodovar
Ampas Breakdown
Actors-1,205
Producers-462
Executives-436
Sound-405
Writers-382
Art Directors-373
Directors-375
Public Relations-370
Members at Large-254
Shorts/Feature Ani-335
Visual Effects-272
Music-233
Editors-227
Cinematographers-201
Original Score-234
Documentary-145
Makeup-115
Total Voting Members -approx 5,777
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82nd Oscar Ceremony
Hosts: Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin
Producers: Adam Shankman, Bill Mechanic
Director: Hamish Hamilton
Music: Marc Shaiman
Pedro Almodovar - Tuesday, December 1, 2009: Official Screen Credits forms due
Monday, December 28, 2009: Nominations ballots mailed
Saturday, January 23, 2010: Nominations polls close 5 p.m. PT
Tuesday, February 2, 2010: Nominations announced 5:30 a.m. PT, Samuel Goldwyn Theater
Wednesday, February 10, 2010: Final ballots mailed
Monday, February 15, 2010: Nominees Luncheon
Saturday, February 20, 2010: Scientific and Technical Achievement Awards presentation
Tuesday, March 2, 2010: Final polls close 5 p.m. PT
Sunday, March 7, 2010: 82nd Annual Academy Awards presentation -
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Words
“I think, of all the films this year… maybe “The Hurt Locker” too… “Up in the Air” will be considered the definitive film of 2009 when we look back in 2019. It’s too raw for people to appreciate now. I’m thinking of 1976 when the Best Picture Award went to “Rocky” over both “Network” and “Taxi Driver” which are far superior films, but “Rocky” struck the populist chord (“Avatar”). “Up in the Air” is similar to “Network” in that regard, because it’s taking a very sharp knife to the world it’s trying to dissect, yet still conveys fairly human emotions. In ten years we’ll be thinking, “how did they not pick ‘Up in the Air’ for best picture?” Of course I’m assuming it loses, but maybe it still has a chance… who knows.
I for one was absolutely captivated and riveted by it, and would love for it to get recognition it deserves. Great Film.”
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Contender Tracker
Awards So Far
NBR Winner+/top ten*
LAFCA Winner+
BFCA Critics Choice Win+/Nominee*
NYFCC Winner +/*
SEFCA Winners+/*
Golden Globes Nominee+/*
SAG Winner+/Nominee*
National Society of Film Critics winners+
Producers Guild Winner+/Nominees*
Directors Guild Winners+/Nominees*
Art Directors Guild Nominees*
Writers Guild Nominees*
American Cinematographers Society*
American Cinema Editors*
Cinema Audio Society*
BAFTA Nominations*
Best Picture
The Hurt Locker*+++**+++******
Avatar*+********
Inglourious Basterds***+****
Up in the Air+*+*******
Precious******
District 9*****
A Serious Man*****
An Education*****
Up****
The Blind Side
Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart++++*
George Clooney, Up in the Air+*++***
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker**+*
Colin Firth, A Single Man****
Morgan Freeman, Invictus+***
Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side+++
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia++++**
Carey Mulligan, An Education+****
Gabby Sidibe, Precious****
Helen Mirren, The Last Station**
Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds+++++++*
Woody Harrelson,The Messenger+***
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones****
Matt Damon, Invictus***
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station*
Best Supporting Actress
Mo'Nique, Precious+*+++++*
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air+****
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air****
Penelope Cruz, Nine**
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy HeartBest Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker++++*++*
Jim Cameron, Avatar*+**
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds****
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air***
Lee Daniels, Precious**Best Original Screenplay
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds+*
Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man+*+*
Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker***
Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Up*
Oren Moverman, Alessandro Camo The Messenger
Best Adapted Screenplay
Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air+++++*
Armando Iannucci, In the Loop+
Geoffrey Fletcher, Precious**
Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell, District 9**
Nick Hornby, An Education*
Best Editing
Stephen Rivkin, John Refoua, James Cameron, Avatar+**
Chris Innis, Bob Murawski, The Hurt Locker***
Julian Clarke, District 9**
Joe Klotz, Precious
Sally Menke, Inglourious Basterds**
Best Cinematography
Mauro Fiore, Avatar+**
Christian Berger, White Ribbon+++*
Barry Ackroyd, The Hurt Locker***
Robert Richardson, Inglourious Basterds***
Bruno Delbonnel, Harry Potter
Best Art Direction
Avatar+**
Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus*
Nine*
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria
Best Sound Mixing
Avatar+**
The Hurt Locker***
Star Trek* **
Inglourious Basterds
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen*
Best Sound Editing
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Up
Star Trek
Inglourious Basterds
Best Costume Design
Sandy Powell, The Young Victoria +*
Catherine Leterrier,Coco Avant Chanel*
Janet Patterson, Bright Star**
Colleen Atwood, Nine*
Monique Prudhomme, The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Best Original Score
Michael Giacchino, Up+*
Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders, The Hurt Locker!
James Horner, Avatar*
Alexandre Desplat, The Fantastic Mr. Fox
Hans Zimmer, Sherlock Holmes*
Best Foreign Language Film (submissions)
A Prophet, France+*
The White Ribbon, Germany**
El Secreto de Sus Ojos, Argentina
Ajami, Israel
The Milk of Sorrow, Pru
Best Documentary Feature
The Cove++**+
Food, Inc.**
The Beaches of Agnes++*
Burma VJ*
The Most Dangerous Man in America
Which Way Home
Best Animated Feature
Up+++**
The Fantastic Mr. Fox+*+***
Coraline****
The Princess and the Frog***
The Secret of Kells
Best Visual Effects
Avatar+*
District 9* *
Star Trek**
Best Makeup
The Young Victoria**
Star Trek*
Il Divo*
Best Song
The Weary Kind – T Bone Burnett, Ryan Bingham, Crazy Heart ++
Down in New Orleans, The Princess and the Frog
Almost There – Randy Newman, The Princess And The Frog***
Loin de Paname, Paris 36
Best Live Action Short
The Door
Instead of Abracadabra
Kavi
Miracle Fish
The New Tenants
Best Animated Short
French Roast
Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty
The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte)
Logorama
A Matter of Loaf and Death
Best Documentary Short
China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province
The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner
The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant
Music by Prudence
Rabbit a la Berlin
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13 Responses for "Oscar predicting by the numbers"
Dude didn’t have some of his facts straight.
Yeah, he’s not really an Oscar guy – that’s okay, though, it will be interesting to see how it turns out. The thing is, unless you know the race really well you wouldn’t necessarily know that BAFTA has only become influential the last couple of years but it is still a wild card in many respects. Secondly, Button will win other awards, like FX, makeup, art direction. Supporting actress IS a toss-up, though. It’s a hard one to predict. If I thought Cruz deserved it over Viola Davis it would be easier for me but Viola Davis was just such a powerhouse in that role. I don’t know.
He’s not an Oscar guy but all things considered it was a solid segment. The last couple odds made me laugh. Ouch! No chance for anyone this year.
I doubt his statistics took into account the success of actresses directed by Woody Allen.
Well, considering an actress hasn’t won an Oscar for a Woody Allen film in thirteen years, they probably did take that into acount.
This guy is predicting Taraji P. Henson as well. I hope she wins. She was awesome in Benjamin Button.
Sasha — I’m feeling like an upset could really happen in Supporting Actress. As of now, in fact, I’m going to predict Viola Davis.
They’ll want to honor one of the four nominees, right? It’s the most “actorly” film of the year, arguably.
Or what about Tomei? Hmmm…..
This guy is the real deal. I don’t think the fact that he’s not an Oscar buff matters. But he is pretty quick to admit that his model might be flawed for Supporting Actress, which is cause for worry.
mmm..
still i have my four pick.
Best Actor.- Sean Penn
Best Actress.- Kate Winslet
Best S. Actor.- Heath Ledger
Best S. Actress.- Penelope Cruz
EWW KEITH OLBERMAN KILL IT! KILL IT!
He hasn’t even watched that many movies. You don’t see me trying to predict the Senate races. Stay where you belong if you have little actual interest in the art and a random choice (OK, maybe I’m just mad about the Henson pick, but it’s not impossible).
And Vicky Cristina Barcelona isn’t simply a “romantic comedy.” When people criticize Cruz for being overrated and undeserving, it makes me wonder if they have seen the film – not just the ridiculous “Oscar clip” that has been chosen for every award show undeservedly. She has serious, deep dramatic moments. She screams. She’s upset. You can like your Viola Davis all you want, but nothing was as mainstream-dramatic as Cruz’s in that category.
I love me some boring Oscar wins.
If Milk won, that would be fucking awesome.
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