I just got a tip that Melissa Leo could upset Kate Winslet on Sunday. If so, it would be a kind of Marcia Gay Harden type thing where voters believe Leo deserved it over Kate. The only potential Frozen River upset I’m feeling (not that I woud know anything about anything) is in original screenplay. We’re all focusing on Milk v. Wall-E but I really think Frozen River has a shot there. The tipster also said it’s a close race but Sean Penn will be the winner in Best Actor.
Let’s talk about potential spoilers. Before we launch head-long into our last No Guts, No Glory of the year, what could be among the big time spoilers on Sunday? Here are a few semi-reasonable ones I can think of:
Melissa Leo upsetting in Actress (if Winslet and Streep split the house)
Brad Pitt winning in Best Actor (if Penn and Rourke split the house)
Courtney Hunt winning for original screenplay (I actually see this as a real possibility)
Anyone but Heath Ledger winning (I would say Downey, Jr. is next in line but one never knows)
Anything but Slumdog winning in Picture, Director, Adapted Screeplay, Editing, Cinematography, Score
Kung-Fu Panda beating Wall-E (I am not the one who should comment on this…let’s just leave it at that).
Trouble the Water beating Man on Wire
If neither The Class nor Waltz with Bashir win in Foreign.
95 Responses for "Potential Kate Winslet Upset and Other Spoilers"
As much as I love Meryl Streep and Kate Winslet, I’m really hoping Melissa Leo will take this. Her performance is my favorite of the nominees.
Also, I still think WALL-E will win score, don’t know why but I do.
Very conflicted with the Kate/Melissa race and Penn/Rourke race.
I’ve always thought for a month now that Melissa was/is a huge threat to Kate. Both performances are fantastic. My mom even prefers Melissa. Umm, I just think it’s Kate’s year and she deserves it. Melissa is a fine, fine actress and her nomination is outstanding. She made me fal in love with ‘Frozen River’. I’m just personally pulling for Kate a bit more, here.
Penn/Rourke … God. SAG went for Penn. Brit bloc is going for Rourke. Penn has won already but puts in, for me, the superior performance. Rourke has this amazing comeback, and don’t forget, Julie Christie won SAG last year and didn’t win the Oscar.
SO close.
Wouldn’t Frank Langella be next in line in case of a Penn/Rourke vote split? Or Richard Jenkins? Maybe I’m just underestimating the power of celebrity.
Why must you make me so sad, Sasha? These upsets would definitely change everything around. I think Rourke is my main fight at this year’s Oscars though – Penn’ll no doubt be back at the Oscars, but Rourke is something beyond acting. He embodied that role with everything he had and it shows.
Leo isn’t going to win. She has a tiny, passionate following. Was the tipster by chance named Lellisa Meo?
1. Milk for Best Picture
2. David Fincher for Best Director
3. Frank Langella for Best Actor
4. Anne Hathaway for Best Actress
5. Josh Brolin for Best Supporting Actor
6. Taraji P. Henson for Best Supporting Actress
7. The Reader for Best Screenplay (Adaptation) (what?)
8. Departures for Best Foreign Language Film
9. Encounters At The End of the World for Best Documentary Feature
10.Thomas Newman (WALL-E) for Best Original Score
Oh I’ve been considering a Langella upset quite a bit lately. Melissa Leo I could conceivably see upsetting Winslet but I’d expect Anne Hathaway more to do it.
Am I the only one who thinks WALL-E has no chance for Best Original Screenplay? After the BAFTA win, In Bruges seems the most likely to upset Milk.
“Brad Pitt winning in Best Actor”
I would kill myself there and then.
Now, if Leo or Hathaway won Best Actress….I’d be happy deep down. I mean, I love Kate Winslet but if she wins for The Reader just because she’s “due,” I’d rather have her not win at all. But, of course, she will prolly win.
Rourke will take it. Guaranteed.
I am hoping/praying for a Mike Leigh upset — his sixth nomination, his star was horrifically snubbed, and he is a legend who has yet to win an Oscar. This all adds up to a possibility of a sentimental vote for Leigh!
And he also deserves it.
Would be thrilled to see either Leigh or Hunt win.
I´m pretty confident about a Kate Winslet win, cause the Academy 1. has strong affections towards “The Reader”, 2. loves this performance that much that they put it from the considered supporting into lead category and 3. also has Winslets second very good performance in “Rev. Road” in its mind.
But if not Winslet, who the hell knows, maybe Leo (and hopefully not Meryl Streep for her nun-sense performance).
Speaking about probable oscar-upset: “Waltz with Bashir” indeed could lose, cause it´s no typical “Best foreign language”-material. Neither is “The Class”. So the japanese “Departures” might be the one to watch.
I have seen and liked “Baader Meinhof” a lot, but it won´t win.
I don’t really know why Kate Winslet is the presumed winner.
I still believe that Meryl will take it.
And that would be the upset that you are all looking for since you’ve made up your mind that Winslet will win.
As long as Hathaway doesnt win I dont care who takes the Golden man home.
I really hope Frozen River doesn’t win the screenplay category. That would be bad. Sorry everyone, that film was just not good. The acting was almost entirely bad, save for Leo, whose performance was fine and all, just nothing spectacular. The script was mostly pretty cliche, trying to mine for drama in places that just didn’t have any creating a melodrama effect. I don’t know. I just didn’t think it was a good movie.
Sounds like we’re running down at the end here and just need some stories to talk about. Not to mean it couldn’t happen, but it probably won’t.
Very conflicted on Best Actress. To me, the best performance was Leo’s Frozen River. Had Kate been nominated for Revolutionary Road, I’d be very much behind her, but I was not a fan of the Reader. If/when Kate wins, the fact that she’s seen as “due” will be a good part of the reason.
There will be spoilers. Somewhere, there will be spoilers. A big part of me expects Slumdog not to sweep, to take maybe only about four or five awards, but then I wise the fuck up and decide that it’s gonna win eight or nine…
Whatever these spoilers might be, you’re almost guaranteed not to predict them. I do surely hope that we’re not in for a wholly, completely predictable night.
I’d LOVE to see the following happen:
MILK!!!
A win for Langella
A win for Leo
A win for WALL-E in Original Screenplay
and many more, although hopefully not at the expense of deserving current frontrunners (ie Ledger, Cruz or Davis etc)
Melissa Leo was great. She wasn’t as good as Kate. Her role was not as challenging.
Anne Hathaway owns this category, if we’re going by merit alone. Her role was by far the most complicated and challenging, and she didn’t have a false move (Leo asking for more hours at Yankee Dollar and complaining about the pretty young girl was awkward in a bad way.)
Matthew, I liked Frozen River the movie. I don’t think it’s possible to call it cliche since the majority of America doesn’t even know that type of thing happens, and most people who watch the Oscars/vote in them probably don’t even think about how poor so many of their fellow citizens are. I agree that some parts of the movie are awkward and forced, but it was still heart breaking.
If Wall-E wins best original screenplay, I will not be happy. Great movie…but children’s books should not beat high brow literature.
I really can’t see Ledger losing. Crossing fingers for a Hathaway upset and someone other than Cruz for supprting actress.
High brow literature? Let’s not be snobbish…
Read the actual script for WALL-E, if you can get your hands on it. The dialogue is creatively and sensitively used, the actual script directions are beautifull written.
Also, Sasha, would Leo winning really be comparable to Gay Harden’s win? Gay Harden was fighting in a crowded field, with no clear frontrunner, kind of like when Broday beat Day-Lewis and Nicholson. Leo has to get past Winslet, then Streep, and even Hathaway (maybe not Jolie) stands in her path then…
Dustin Lance Black deserves the oscar, the Milk screenplay was incredible. Could In Bruges be the dark horse?
The question might be how many voters still haven’t seen Frozen River — I can see people who haven’t seen The Reader voting for Winslet; I cannot see people who haven’t seen FR to voting for Leo. So, I would expect that unless the voters actually did their homework this year, Kate is more likely than Leo to take this.
Melissa Leo upsetting I can see. I want Winslet to win (seriously, how many more losses can she take?), but I wouldn’t have a fit if Melissa won.
Brad Pitt’s isn’t going to win Actor. As Rauhlio put it, Langella is next in line. If it’s not Penn, it’s Rourke. If it’s not Rourke, it’s Langella. The other two combined still have zero shot.
I don’t think Original Screenplay is as competitive as people think. Aside from the fact that MILK was the superior screenplay of the year (adapted or original), 3 of the originals are surprise nominations, and that’s reward enough. Wall-E has an outside chance, but Milk has to win somewhere just in case Penn doesn’t. And we already know Wall-E’s got at least 2 in the bag (Animated Feature and Sound Editing).
I just don’t see anyone beating Heath. It’s like he had no competition all year. I checked other pundits on Tom O’Neil’s site, and they think Downey and Hoffman are next in line. Really? MILK was Josh Brolin’s best work to date. I would say he’s the only potential upset.
I wouldn’t mind seeing Wall-E win score either. It was great, and like Winslet, Thomas Newman is overdue. But I don’t think it’s happening.
Kung Fu Panda, Bolt, all the other eligible nominees combined wouldn’t be able to take down Wall-E. There won’t be an upset here.
I think Man on Wire’s on too many top ten lists (#1 on some) to lose to another documentary.
I actually do think another foreign film could win the big prize that isn’t named Waltz with Bashir or The Class. THE BAADER MEINHOF COMPLEX looks exceptionally interesting to me. Some think DEPARTURES has an outside shot, too. I still think Waltz will win, but this wasn’t doesn’t seem sewn up to me at all.
Viola Davis is apparently on a lot of #1 lists for Supporting Actress. She could beat Cruz, and I’d personally be happy about it. She did what Beatrice Straight did in NETWORK: left a huge impact an incredibly short amount of time.
brainypirate–it is kind of a travesty, don’t you think, that voters can vote without doing their homework? Such a shame. Oh well.
Maybe the sweep will become from
Benjamin Button
Picture
Actor/Brad Pitt
Supporting Actress/Taraji P. Henson
Cinematography
Production Design
Original Score
Visual Effects
Make Up
Slumdog Millionaire
Director/Danny Boyle
Adapted Screenplay
Film Editing
Original Song
Actress/Kate Winslet
Supporting Actor/Heath Ledger
Original/Milk
Adapted/Slumdog Millionaire
Costume Design/The Duchess
Sound Mixing and Editing/The Dark Knight
Foreign film/Waltz with Bashir
Paddy #16: ” I do surely hope that we’re not in for a wholly, completely predictable night.”
I know I’m in the minority here, but I dislike massive surprises at the Oscars. I feel really, really badly for the people who had been told by all their friends that they’re sure to win. So I’m usually relieved when the award goes to either of the two most-expected nominees.
I know lots of people hope for AMPAS to go a radically different direction, but I empathize too much with the nominees to want that. (I still feel badly for Tom Brady losing his perfect season in the last 3 minutes of the Superbowl last year!)
Does anyone else find the moment when the presenter is opening the envelope to be just about the most nerve-racking moment of the entire year?
How would someone get a tip like that? They haven’t even finished counting, I’d imagine.
What is with this ridiculous Frozen River backlash all of a sudden?
I may be wimping out here and as much as I hope Winslet wins, I must say that all five actresses are worthy of the award this year.
Still, anyone other than Kate or Meryl would indeed be a surprise.
I’ve given up on Rourke-Penn and am hoping for a tie.
If Ledger fails to win, I think Josh Brolin would be the beneficiary for his sizable body of work over the past few years.
If the following were to happen:
Milk for Picture
Howard for Director
Rourke for Actor
Streep for Actress
Brolin for Supporting Actor
Davis for Supporting Actress
Wall-E for Animated Picture
“Down to Earth” for Song
I would probably fall over and die out of bliss.
I’d say that anyone who isn’t Penelope Cruz or Viola Davis winning Supporting Actress would be a major spoiler.
Sasha, I find watching the Oscars enjoyable by pretending to buy into the bullshit. By imagining that I actually care about what Jennifer Hudson is wearing, what J-Lo did to her hair, which nominee didn’t show up, who won art direction, and whether someone’s speech is “gracious enough.” Next, I have fun making catty comments about all of it.
The upset for me would be Marisa Tomei, which to my way of thinking would require a Rourke win, which I believe is going to happen (though Tomei is a NGNG).
Frozen River is the only movie nominated in the big eight categories that I have NOT seen! Not that that is any reason for me to be upset that it could upset, but I really tried my hardest to watch as many of the nominees as I could so for it to win Actress and Screenplay would be just a tad disappointing for me.
That and I’ve been rooting for Winslet since Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. So it’s been awhile.
“What is with this ridiculous Frozen River backlash all of a sudden?”
Since when is speaking out against one of the worst, most incompetent, most contrived, most crudely written screenplays of the year ridiculous?
I have been predicting sean penn for a while, but this makes me feel more confidence about the choice. Strange because I am not buying this. Where did the tip come from? The ballots are separated and counted by different people and only two people do the final tally. I question where the the tipster would have gotten this information. Also, Kate is going to win! Nothing can make me doubt that until the winner is announced. This reminds me of the whole Anne Hathaway/golden globes incident.
I always thought the whole concept of two different actors splitting the vote was ridiculous but today, it kinda makes sense in some crazy way. The majority of voters vote for the front runner. Then there is the smaller group that vote for the underdog. If you have two front runners, the majority
I too have heard that a lot of middle-aged actresses (in the Actor’s Branch) are voting for Melissa Leo.
But then you have to take into account that they are a minority segment in a much larger picture(old rich white guys who love pretty young chicks, who lets’ face it, make up most of the academy.)
AND most of the voters DO NOT WATCH all the nominated films. This is a fact. They vote without watching. Which makes it once again like a popularity contest, or a “beauty pageant” as I think Sean Penn called it this year at the BFCA.
So what are they voting on then? BIG THEMES: Like the holocaust.
Name Recognition: Like Kate Winslet, Meryl, Anne and Angelina have. And Melissa Leo does not. She will eventually. If she continues to work steadily. A New Yorker, she seems to have permanently relocated to L.A. for ALLLLL of the awards season and pre-season.
She has been added at the last minute to an ABC “Road to the Oscars” special…Interesting, no?
And I THINK she was the poor woman who had the scandously messy divorce from John Heard. But that was decades ago. And this was before the Tabloid Age of Movies had begun.
She’s a sensational gal when you meet her. And I hope she does well. But upsetting a five time well-known loser, Kate, in the role of her career? I just don’t think there’s that many votes out there in Best Actress for any one else who is not a Babe.
Oh, unless, the are a Dame of the British Empire, which DAME Judi Dench was and DAME Helen Mirren was.
And if people ARE voting heavily for the make-up free Melissa Leo, those are votes that WOULD go to Meryl. Not to one of the Babes=Kate & Anne Hathaway.
AND I don’t think enough people watched the movie. “Frozen River” I mean.
But props to Sasha for bringing Melissa Leo and “Frozen River” to the Oscar forefront via this site before anyone else did back in the summer.
…Vote reduces per individual reduces, giving the underdog a shot
I don’t see Mickey Rourke as a frontrunner, necessarily. I think the award is Penn’s to lose. There’s always a comeback nomination, and I love those, but they rarely win. Peter Fonda, Burt Reynolds, Jackie Earl Hayley, etc. If Penn doesn’t get it, the odds are on Mickey Rourke, but I’m not so sure Brad Pitt would be third in line.
And Kate Winslet seems less likely to me every day, as does Penelope Cruz. I think we’re looking at Penn, Streep, Ledger and either Viola Davis or Marisa Tomei. I think Viola Davis is the surer thing, because people have been talking about that scene since before the movie came out. If I had a vote, though, I’d give it to Marisa Tomei (and I would have done the same thing last year, I’m just saying.)
Ryan B. #38: “I don’t see Mickey Rourke as a frontrunner, necessarily.”
Although all this coverage of the death of Rourke’s dog makes me wonder if he’s got even more Hollywood support than we realize…
“And if people ARE voting heavily for the make-up free Melissa Leo, those are votes that WOULD go to Meryl. Not to one of the Babes=Kate & Anne Hathaway.”
@ Stephen Holt. You make a very good point with this.
With that same line of thought, who’s the person most likely to upset Penn/Rourke and who are they siphoning votes from, Penn or Rourke? Interesting thought exercise.
Other Ryan: I know one Oscar journalist have said that according to what he’s hearing, a lot of the Langella votes would otherwise go to Penn.
I wonder how many more ‘tipsters” and “leaks” there will be before Sunday. Where do these people get their info from? I thought everything is supposed to be tightly sealed.
I am rooting for Rourke but I wouldn’t mind a tie between him and Penn.
Everyone I know who saw Waltz with Bashir thought that it was brilliant. It is and I hope that it wins. The Academy will look foolish if it doesn’t award this film because it is different.
It is a shame that people can vote without seeing everyone. It really makes you wonder about the credibility of the whole awards process.
I’d like to know which tipster would know about all 5200+ votes. C’mon Sasha stop stirring the pot.
@ brainypirate: That’s interesting. Thank you.
Is there anyone siphoning votes from Ledger or Cruz?
I could see Downey Jr and Brolin siphoning votes from Ledger. But I don’t think Shannon or Hoffman have that much momentum to derail the inevitable.
The Supp. Actress is much more interesting. Tomei could siphon votes from Cruz. Doubt fans have to pick between Adams and Davis. So Taraji wins? Hm…
Taraji P. Henson winning best supporting actress
Wall-E winning original screenplay
Angelina Jolie winning best actress
Iron Man winning visual effects
Kung Fu Panda winning animated feature
Lavatory-Lovestory winning Animated Short Film
All best pic winners win at least in 3 or 4 more categories. So, if Slumdog doesn’t win, what picture would win and in what categories?
Opinions please.
I really don’t think Meryl Streep is going to take it this year. She has a baity role in Julie and Julia coming up next year. I think she’s doing better and better each year (comedy golden globe for The Devil Wears Prada, SAG for Doubt, hopefully Oscar for Julie and Julia). This is Kate’s year. She was fantastic. The only person, in my opinion, who was better was Anne. I still have hope for Anne, but it’s very little hope. I think Kate takes it.
I have said before and I am saying it again, if Kate does not win I am cutting ties with the oscars and everything related to it; Completely. If I have to watch a one-hit wonder win over consistency one more time, I would seriously slap someone. If Kate doesn’t win, I AM OFFICIALLY DONE with the shady politics of the Oscars. Those band of idiots better DO THE RIGHT THING!!
How would anyone be able to offer a “tip” about Melissa Leo upsetting? Unless this person works for Price-Waterhouse, the best he/she could do at this stage is to survey as many Academy members as possible. But even if the number surveyed is 50, or 100, or 200, that is simply not enough. You need at least 20% + 1 vote to win any 5-nominee category. This is also the reason that talk of “vote-splitting” strikes me as utter nonsense. Do we really believe that the Academy votes in blocs and that sometimes these blocks spit? Do we really think that, say, 60% of voters are in the Kate-Meryl bloc and the remaining 40% in the Melissa bloc, so that when the Kate-Meryl bloc cannot get its collective act together and decide who they want to win, Melissa sneaks in with her 40% bloc and wins? Or something like that . . .??
LOL
That’s all that can be said about this thread. A better use of bandwidth would be to start discussion on Oscars 2010 than this silliness.
Of course there will be a few upsets .
It happens every year .
Most likely upsets :
Penelope Cruz loses .
Slumdog wins 9 . [ upsets in 2 sound categories ] .
Foreign Language Film .
The short categories , they give one of those to a film that nobody predicts .
Ben Button goes 0 for 13 . [ I can Dream ]
Mickey Or Sean . , at this point , is not an upset .
Biggest Upset : If these Academy Awards are the lowest rated EVER , that would be surprising .
After all the things the have done to hype the show .
Of course there will be a few upsets .
It happens every year .
Most likely upsets :
Penelope Cruz loses .
Slumdog wins 9 . [ upsets in 2 sound categories ] .
Foreign Language Film .
The short categories , they give one of those to a film that nobody predicts .
Ben Button goes 0 for 13 . [ I can Dream ]
Mickey Or Sean . , at this point , is not an upset .
Biggest Upset : If these Academy Awards are the lowest rated EVER , that would be surprising .
After all the things they have done to hype the show .
I don’t think there will be an upset in major categories .
[...] been murmurs for some time that Melissa Leo is a prized commodity in this field. Sasha Stone is spit-balling the possibility today as well. She’s got people like Dustin Hoffman out there singing her praises. And [...]
Call me a hater if you want, but how many losses can Meryl Streep take?! It’s insulting!
Kate Winslet lost for performance like these in Titanic and Sense and Sensibility (and she HAS NEVER BEEN THE MOST DESERVING NOMINEE FOR ME, not once!)…
Meryl Streep lost for:
A CRY IN THE DARK
THE FRENCH LIEUTENANT’S WOMAN
ADAPTATION
THE BRIDGES OF MADISON COUNTY
SILKWOOD
She should win best actress! I’m tired of people saying: She’ll win soon. Really?! When is this soon?!!
@#48 – Afrika
You are seriously making me get behind Melissa Leo now. Or Anne.
ormerylorangie.
YOUR UPSET BALLOT:
Best Picture: Milk
Best Director: David Fincher
Best Actress: Angelina Jolie
Best Actor: Richard Jenkins
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams
Best Supporting Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman
Best Original Screenplay: Happy-Go-Lucky
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Best Animated Film: Kung Fu Panda
Best Documentary Feature: Encounters at the End of the World
Best Foreign Language Film: Departures
Best Original Score: Defiance
#19-PaddyM
Thank you for pointing this out. I have been thinking the same thing for the longest time about the best actress race this year. The race this year reminds me very much of the 2002 best actor race. At least if Melissa Leo wins, then it would be just like that.
I find many similarities between the BA nominees then and the B. Actress nominees now. In 2002 you had the actor in a class of his own, the icon, Jack Nicholson. He is heads above others in a league of his own. This year you have that in Meryl Streep, who truly is in a class of her own.
Back then we had the unbelievable actor, who time in and out gives astounding performances. That was Daniel Day Lewis who was one of the favorites to win. ( I personally think he should have won ). This year would be Kate Winslet. No matter what film it is, she delivers each and every time. Always the consumate performer, just like Day-Lewis.
Nicolas Cage would take the place of the tabloid star/bad boy of the group. From what I remeber he was and still may be in and out of the tabloids and is known for being very eccentric and somewhat bizzare. He is also a pretty fine actor, given the right movie. This year that would be Angelina Jolie. While she is a much bigger star than Nicolas Cage, she takes his place this year. I actually think she is a better actor than Cage. And people seem to have forgotten, but she used to be a very bizzare and out there person, one the academy does not like. And just like Cage back then, she is most considered the back-runner.
Honestly, I am not sure who would take the role of Michael Cain this year, as I struggle to see any similarities between Caine and Hatahaway. But just like Cain that year, she is a threat to win.
And Melissa Leo would take the place of Adrien Brody this year. She is the longshot, the virtual unknown, the one who no one thinks will win. She was in a very small film, one most of the general public never saw. I think her winning would be a great upset, beating four actresses who are all better known and more likely to win.
On a personal note, I am hoping that Leo will win, but would be happy with a Winslet win as well. While I adore Meryl Streep, her role in Doubt seeems to be too baity and showy.
Ross–Meryl will win her third oscar for Julie and Julia next year.
Talk of spoilers is fun, but so soon after the Nate Silvers bit?
Sasha, who is this tipster? How could they possibly know that Melissa Leo could upset Kate? The only people who know the results of the voting are the Price Waterhouse people, and even then, only two guys actually know the winners. So unless your tipster was one of the people who counted ballots (which would shock me, since they’d be breaking all kinds of contractual rules if they spoke to you), then I doubt the veracity of their claim.
Maybe the tipster knows a bunch of Acad members who voted for Leo. Even then, I still doubt the claim because there are thousands of Acad members voting, and they can’t possibly know them all. And since other insiders have not been hearing rumblings of such a possible upset, I doubt it will happen.
none of those upsets are happening. It will be a predictable and “by the books” oscars.
I just can imagine Penelope Cruz losing for VCB and being campaigned heavily for best actress next year. Meryl will get her 16th nod for Julie and Julia, but people will say: She’ll win next year. And Cruz who will be considered by the time wins instead. It could happen again and again. It happens since Sophie’s Choice. There’s always the hot name now. I’m really tired of all this. Meryl should win.
ross?
you are tired of this? well! I’m tired of Kate not winning too. Every year, people keep saying she’ll get it next year…and they end up awarding one trick ponies like Hilary Swank and Reese WItherspoon. Every year is the same typical bullshit. At least Meryl has not one but two oscars. Kate is the best actress of her generation and she has NONE. Before you know it, she’ll be in her forties still watching one hit wonders with enhanced boobs and botoxed faces winning her awards. If Winslet doesn’t win this year I am seriously done with the Academy. I won’t put up with this crap anymore.
“I know lots of people hope for AMPAS to go a radically different direction, but I empathize too much with the nominees to want that. (I still feel badly for Tom Brady losing his perfect season in the last 3 minutes of the Superbowl last year!)”
Brainypirate, I agree with you so completely about Tom Brady! I was the only one at our Superbowl party last year rooting for the Pats.
Also, can you imagine the shock if the envelope for Best Picture is opened, and a name other than Slumdog Millionaire would be announced? It would be like Brokeback Mountain all over again!
Streep has won two, she doesn’t need another. If you so desperately need to see her win, watch her previous wins on youtube.
To Matt Mazur way up there: There isn’t any crazy Frozen River backlash going on. There’s a couple of people, myself included, who just don’t think the movie deserves the praise it has gotten. Who think it is a crap movie. There’s only a few of us, so I wouldn’t call that a backlash. Plus, I’ve hated the movie since I saw it two months ago, so the apparent “backlash” isn’t all of a sudden on my side of the fence. If someone could just explain to me why Frozen River is such a brilliant movie (and not a cliche-ridden film with mostly bad acting), then maybe I’ll give it another chance.
karen
I wouldn’t be shocked because honestly SLumdog isn’t the best pic of the year. Is Slumdog really better than Milk or Doubt? I mean, you’ve got to be kidding me.
I would love to see Kate Winslet win an Oscar, but unfortunatey I don’t think she deserves to win this year, not for that performance and not for that film.
And people need to stop acting like it will be the end of the world if by some miracle she doesn’t end up winning this Sunday. Winslet is still young and will eventually win hers if she doesn’t win this year. If there’s one performance she should have won for in the past, it should be Sense and Sensibility, other than that, the academy has been right not rewarding her.
And there will be no upset for Heath Ledger. HE’S WINNING.
Bdgrefan #56: “And Melissa Leo would take the place of Adrien Brody this year. She is the longshot, the virtual unknown, the one who no one thinks will win. She was in a very small film, one most of the general public never saw.”
The problem with this scenario is that The Pianist actually won 3 major categories, and there are rumors that it came very close to getting Best Pic as well. That film had a lot of support behind it, and that may well have gotten more folks to watch it than normally would have. Frozen River only has 2 noms, so Leo isn’t getting much help from the other categories for her performance.
The other factor I recall people discussing that year was that Brody was the only nominee that didn’t already have an award. I’m not sure that contributed as much to his win as did the film’s other noms, but it certainly suggests that in a year like this where the presumed favorite does NOT have a previous win, Leo’s chances are even slimmer.
OK, we all have to agree on Slumdog’s record-breaking pedigree. I mean it swept the guilds, snatching up more trophies than ROTK and Schindler’s List… amazing, no other movie has managed that kind of a clean-sweep. Ever. Plus lots — tho’ not all — of the precursor critics awards.
So, here’s my question, let’s just say that there is indeed this upset, that another film actually wins best picture, no matter how unlikely that might be….. will it have the same impact as the Brokeback/Crash upset? Will that film, whichever it is, take on the same amount of scorn heaped upon Crash? (if it would happen to be The Reader, then I think the answer would be yes; but let’s just say it happens to be Milk or The Curious Case of Red Buttons, would it go down the same way?)
On the other hand, is this even worth pondering?
#67: “And people need to stop acting like it will be the end of the world if by some miracle she doesn’t end up winning this Sunday. Winslet is still young and will eventually win hers if she doesn’t win this year.”
A couple years back I did some digging and found that only one actress has ever won her first Oscar after 4 losses: Susan Sarandon. (Someone double-check me on that!) I worry for Julianne Moore, and I worry for Kate Winslet.
Tim H: If it was The Reader, I think yes too. The Reader was an upset nominee, it would definitley be an upset if it actually won over Slumdog Millionaire, but I’m not holding my breath at all. Slumdog is winning this Sunday.
Now if it was Milk, I actually think people would react different because so many people think Milk deserves to win instead. That and the reason the academy didn’t give it to Brokeback Mountain back in ‘05/’06 and so many thought it was a major snub…that they started saying the Academy loss some of it’s credibility. So I don’t think Milk will suffer the same fate as a Crash or a Shakesphere in Love if it ends up winning.
But once again, Slumdog is winning.
Tim H #69: “let’s just say that there is indeed this upset, that another film actually wins best picture, no matter how unlikely that might be….. will it have the same impact as the Brokeback/Crash upset? Will that film, whichever it is, take on the same amount of scorn heaped upon Crash?”
Would we have been as upset if Capote, Good Night & Good Luck, or Munich won? I don’t think so. I think a large part of the anger towards BBM’s loss had to do with Crash, which many people felt was not worthy of the nomination and which others felt won because of a well-oiled campaign. This is a picture that people liked but that no one thought had much of a chance of winning.
I don’t know if any of this year’s film nominees, even The Reader, is in the same position as Crash. We’ve always thought of The Reader as an Oscar film, even if it isn’t as good as we expected it to be. And the other films have all been expected nominees as well.
In some ways, Slumdog IS this year’s Crash — not in terms of quality, but in terms of being the unexpected contender.
Brainy Pirate: I, too, worry about the great Julianne Moore.
Here’s something to consider: Geraldine Page finally won her Oscar on her 8th try. And she died about a year later.
She certainly deserved it for “…Bountiful” (and several others) but she had to wait 32 years between her first nomination and her ultimate win.
Brainypirate: Geraldine Page loss 7 times before winning for The Trip to Bountiful.
Does anyone else think Julianne Moore deserved to win for Far From Heaven?, because I did.
I can’t believe Meryl Streep is even nominated for her drama-school over-acting in Doubt, let alone the main “challenger”/second-in-line for the Oscar. Yuck.
BP and JR:
Good points.
As much as I love Brokeback, I think I could have accepted this disappointment had the winner been Munich. And, as long as we’re looking back to another big frustration, and that would be Shakespeare in Love, I must say that had SPR lost to THIN RED LINE, I wouldn’t have minded so much.
And yes, in many ways, Slumdog is indeed this year’s Crash. (And like Crash, it’s going to win best picture)
Me at #70: “only one actress has ever won her first Oscar after 4 losses: Susan Sarandon. (Someone double-check me on that!)”
Well, I stand corrected: Geraldine Page won on her 8th try. Susan Hayward and Shirley MacLaine both won on #5.
But think how long ago those were. So, in the past 25 years, only one actress has won her first award after 4 losses.
> “Does anyone else think Julianne Moore deserved to win for Far From Heaven?, because I did.”
When she lost the GG to Nicole Kidman, I was so pissed off I didn’t talk to anyone for three days. She had been so highly-praised the entire season, starting with her win at Venice, that many folks assumed the Oscar was hers to lose.
And then Nicole won it because she lost the previous year for Moulin Rouge!. I was despondent.
That was when I lost faith in the Academy.
You got a tip? What’s that supposed to mean? Unless it was a tip from one of the accountants tabulating the ballots, I can’t see how any “tip” you got would mean Jack, Sasha. My best guess is somebody in the industry told you that s/he and a few of their pals were voting for Leo – which would mean your tip represents about .6% of the Academy. Tips mean NOTHING.
Don’t get me started on FAR FROM HEAVEN…. I’m sitting in my office right now looking at my framed poster … that’s how much I love that film and Moore’s performance (and Quaid’s, Clarkson’s and Haysbert’s) If any actor has been robbed of an Oscar in the past twenty years, it was Julianne Moore. And the fact that she lost it to her Hours co-star Kidman (who absolutely deserved it for MR!) just makes it even crazier. That year, it should have been Moore, Day-Lewis, Moore (again) for supporting, and Quaid.
This is why I think Kate could still be in a little trouble: Moore had two great performances in a single year, HEAVEN and HOURS (and unlike Winslet managed Oscar noms for both)…bu then again, Kate has Harvey like Nicole did that year, for another Stephen Daldry film…never mind, my brain is getting tired.
Go Kate. Go Julianne. I hope neither of you suffer the same fate as the late, great Deborah Kerr.
Why does no one like Penelope Cruz around here? I thought she was spectacular — VCB would have been a train wreck without her. After her terrific performance in Volver, she confirms that she’s a brilliant comedic actress. She’s miles better than anyone else in this category … to be perfectly honest, she’s the only nominee I really care about this year. I’d like to see Richard Jenkins win as well, but that’s not in the cards.
Oh, but if we’re talking No Guts, No Glory, I’ll pick Jenkins for Best Actor, simply on the theory that the Academy usually makes a good choice in the lead actor category.
And what the hell happened to Moore’s nomination for Savage Grace this year? Even if the movie got panned, she was getting good notices. And that didn’t stop Theron and Swank from getting nominated before…..
Milk for Best Picture!
Tips mean NOTHING.
Yeah, I know. I just thought I’d pass it along for the hell of it.
Robert Downey, Jr. and Viola Davis taking home the supporting Oscars are the upsets that I forsee.
As for Downey, Jr.
1. His performance was also one of the most talked about this year.
2. He also deserved a nomination, in some circles, for Ironman.
3. The older members still remember his Chaplin nominated performance.
4. He was overlooked for Zodiac
5. He is alive.
@ 81:
95% of the regular commenters here love Cruz (since 2006).
I know that there are some who are rooting for Winslet to lose. But if she does, I think the aftermath will be kind of gloomy since she really gave it her all in two movies and then in the campaign for both films. It would be depressing actually. Meryl’s recent rewards recently have been box office success–in Prada last year and Mamma Mia this year. Leo will be content with a Indie Spirit Award.
[...] that she would like this year to be hers. And then he saw that Sasha Stone has a trusted pal who thinks she might actually sneak in. It would go down as one of the bigger gasp-inducers in recent history, all the more so because [...]
MORE KATE WINSLET ARTICLE PLEASEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!
AND THE READER!!!!!!
CANT GET ENOUGH
!!!
A+++++++++++++ WOULD READ AGAIN
Am I the only person who thought Melissa Leo was merely adequate in a lame, cliche-riddled movie?
Taraji P Henson winning Sup Actress
In Bruges winning Original Screenplay
The Reader winning Adapted Screenplay
Defiance winning Score
The Reader winning Cinematography
Frost/Nixon winning Editing
Revolutionary Road winning Costume Design
Encounters at the End of the World winning Documentary
The Baader Meinhof Complex winning Foreign Film
The Dark Knight winning Makeup
Iron Man winning Sound Editing
The Dark Knight winning Visual Effects
@ davelow,
sorry, but Kate Winslet losing won’t have a really big aftermath. Come on – I could accept people telling that she’s due, but do you really think her two performances this year were extraordinary? She didn’t even sweep the awards! No major critics’ love at all!
[...] Streep and sneak in for the win. That’s how Marcia Gay Harden did it in 2000, as Sasha Stone noted this morning; David Carr was even more direct at The Carpetbagger: [W]hile Ms. Winslet does appear to be the [...]
I guess nobody really picked up on the fact that Meryl Streep was playing the first Jewish nun. Talk about schtick!
And an also important Oscar fact, no-nun-in-a-habit has ever won an Oscar. Susan Sarandon was a nun in “Dead Man Walking” with Sean(god! He was brilliant in THAT, too!) but she was a modern nun who wore no habit.
Habits get nominations but don’t win their wearers an Oscar. Just, saying…
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