(Thanks, Marshall!)
Best Picture
12 Years a Slave
Best Director
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Best Actor
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Best Supporting Actor
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Supporting Actress
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Best Adapted Screenplay
12 Years a Slave
Best Original Screenplay
Her
Best Art Direction/Production Design
Gravity
Best Cinematography
Gravity
Best Editing
Gravity
Best Original Score
Her
Best Animated Film
The Wind Rises
Best Foreign Language Film
The Act of Killing
Best Documentary
The Act of Killing
Breakthrough Performance
Adèle Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Color
Most Promising Filmmaker
Destin Cretton, Short Term 12
The big problem with these races and/or awards is that for the most part, and especially the last few years, people do not vote for what they think is the best performance. They vote for what they think will win. It generally starts with Gold Derby and it trickles over to all of the other awards.
Like with The Hurt Locker, I’ll believe 12 Years A Slave, when I see it win Best Picture, Director, et al.at the Oscars. Otherwise, much can, and probably will happen between now and then.
Everyone is voting on Cate because everyone else is voting for Cate. And it’s not necessarily that she’s the best of the bunch. She had a showy role very early on in the contest in a Woody Allen movie who is famous for getting women towards Oscar turns. And since she’s not Streep, or last years winner, everyone latched onto her. It also does not hurt that she’s an Oscar darling, with many nominations but no win since 2004, and no win for a lead role. And she fits the Oscar “Type”. She’s no spring chicken, but she looks great and much younger than her years, which will get the male vote, especially if the predicted five are nominated.
Streep doesn’t have a shot because she just won. Dench won’t win here, because she’s too old. Most likely, ditto for Thompson. Bullock has her career award and will not get another, so the Cate consensus is no surprise. And anyone younger than her, giving a great performance, do not have the star power to overcome was has become a contest of popularity, rather than acting excellence.
It would have been interesting to see what would have happened had Adele’s role not been that of a lesbian? Great as she is, that will hurt her chances at Oscar. Then, there’s Brie Larson. Pretty, young, great performance, so that’s three going for her, but in a tiny film and this is all about star power these days, so although it’s possible for her to get in, it’s unlikely, but we’ll see…
Looking at the other najor categories the one that sticks out like a sore thumb, is direction, and I find it quite interesting that the cheer leader brood that is Gold Derby, quickly got behind Gravity here. No doubt, Gravity is a fine film, but I’m trying to figure out, what’s so great about it from a direction standpoint. Yeah, you literally felt as if you were helplessly out there with Bullock, so that’s no easy feat, but it’s nowhere near as special as what Ang Lee did last year, with Pi, which was something that came across as impossible to film, and we didn’t see them throwing their support behind him, after he proved the impossible could be done, and convincingly brought the book to the screen. Even then, the DGA picked Affleck for Argo, for all of the wrong reasons.
So, everyone else played the Argo game and we got the split at Best Picture and Director last year, and while Argo was a good film, it was not a great film, and certainly not last years best. Not by a long shot.
12 Years A Slave, though tough to sit through, is an unflinching look at the horrors of slavery, and is extremely well made but it could have easily have been the same looks we were given by both Steven (Schlindler’s List) or Roman (The Pianist). Granted, the latter was part of a split decision, but in that case, no one was picking Roman for the win, but Steven and his film were going hand in hand. But the difference here is that, we an deal with the holocaust. We can point to Hitler on that one, but 12 Years A Salve hits too close to home, and not only that, does not soften things the way that it has been done in the past. This is NOT your father’s Roots! Last, but not least, it’s British made and the director is Black and British!
12 Years A Slave hits harder than anything this year, but then again, that does not make it the best film and the fact that’s it’s subject matter is one that is uncomfortable for many voters, keep an eye on this year’s Argo: American Hustle. For my money, 12 Years A Slave is a much better film, but that means nothing. Hustle sounds more like something the uncomfortable will go for, vote-wise and it doesn’t hurt that it has a popular director, who has not won, popular actors, including last year’s Best Actress winner, our former Batman, looking nothing like himself, so the movie has star power. And it’s from Columbia pictures, a big studio. It will be interesting.
The major Oscar that 12 Years A Slave will, most likely win would be that of Best Supporting Actress. I’ll be shocked if it wins Best Actor. Not that the performance is not worthy, I just don’t see it happening, there are so many options for the conservative vote to go elsewhere, and that’s not saying that there are not performances equally as good. For example: Redford is fantastic in his film, and could easily be the go-to for Best Actor. Forget about the SAG. He may win just because of the snub a la the Agro director snub last year, getting it Best Picture.
12 u
Years of a slave dominantes here
Fantastic!!!!
The ground is really starting to move for 12 YEARS A SLAVE now!!!!
Tom, that may have been, and I’m just, y’know, real talk here, but that may have been the dumbest thing I’ve read in the last month. Violence in Chicago go down so residents can go support 12 Years a Slave? Yeah, that’s why I want the violence to decrease. “Hey all you residents, the gunfire has subsided for a few minutes. Now’s your chance to run to the theater and support 12 Years a Slave! It’s the only way you can get to a theater! What? No fuck the grocery store, it’ll still be there! But not the movie theater! The ONLY WAY you can get to a fucking theater is if the violence takes a rest!”
Go Blanchett!!
Mike, why’s that? Should they not have rewarded who they believed to be the best? Each of those winners are very deserved.
Damn I think I called Her’s wins, and only wins in script and score, a week ago with this group! I said it once and I’ll say it again, there’s a science to figuring out each of these groups’ choices.
Well, if he’s not doing that he should start now, if he wan’ts to stand a chance. Right now his buzz is going down rapidly, same as Redford’s, on the other hand Bale’s chances of being nominated are getting better and better. Today it looks like Ejiofor and Dern will duke it out for the win and the rest will be just watching. Hopefully WOWS wide release in late december will attract some attention to Matt.
Hmm, Chicago was supposedly Oprah Winfrey’s hometown and the critics there don’t even support her. Hopefully, the violence in that city stops so that residents can go and support ’12 years.’
yeah, that’s how it oughta work. If a critic lives in the same town as an actress, then that’s the actress the critic should vote for.
Guess it’s pretty easy to guess who the Nebraska Film Critics Association are gonna vote for. Unless the system isn’t as stupid as that stupid rule.
Don’t count Matt McC out. He hasn’t started campaigning in the media yet.
Sad too say, but the early frontrunner McConaughey is out of the game for good. I don’t see how the race can turn in his favor. Not even a slight recodnition for his outstanding work in MUD and barely a couple of nods (and one win I think) for DBC with Leto stealing his thunder. A real shame, he’ll end up nominated though.
12YearsASlave sweeps, again (unsurprisingly)? Well, one thing is for sure, Cate Blanchett and Jared Leto has virtually the same momentum in sweeping the major industry awards later on.
I feel wrong for saying this, but I kinda wanted Jennifer Lawrence to win. That’s not to say Lupita isn’t deserving. It’d be totally awesome to have a fresh Yale graduate win for her first powerful film in which she acted so beautifully.
It’s Official! The critics of Chicago are the most boring critics on Earth.
The only real question right now is how much Globe voters love Philomena? I could see Dench taking the Golden Globe, but if SAG voters aren’t sentimental, Blanchett will win there and will take the Oscar. But for Dench winning the Globe could change the momentum Blanchett has now. Anyway, I think Blanchett is well ahead of the other four likely nominees in terms of the performance she delivered, so I guess she’s safe.
So far:
Actor — Ejiofor vs. Dern
Actress – Blanchett (maybe Dench could be a spoiler)
Supporting Actor – Leto (with Gandolfini or Fassbender as spoilers)
Supporting Actress – Lupita Nyong’o (June Squibb?)
Directing – Steve McQueen (with Cuaron as the spoiler?)
When will the Internatial Press Academy announce their winners for the 18th Satellite Awards?
Cate Blanchett’s
Blue Jasmine
BEST ACTRESS WINS:
1. NYFCC
2. LAFCA
3. Boston Society of Film Critics
4. New York Film Critics Online
5. WAFCA
6. San Diego Film Critics
7. SFFCC
8. Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
9. The Online Film Critics Society
10. Chicago Film Critics
11. Toronto Film Critics
It seems that a consensus is starting to form, specially in the acting categories.
I don’t have a problem with Ejiofor and Blanchett winning their categories, but I am rooting big time for Leto and Nyong’o.
Great winners list. Good to see 12 Years a Slave take some love again; and go Blanchett!