I suppose no Oscar year would be complete without listing my own predictions. But don’t get excited. I’m not very good at this. I’ve discovered that there three kinds of predictors out there – the ones who blend in, the ones who take big risks to predict dark horses, and those who confuse predicting with wishful thinking, in other words, they predict with their hearts. I’m one of those, I guess. Perhaps that’s because after ten years being right is less important to me than it used to be. Or maybe I just can’t really do it any other way. That is why I have two running tallys – the Oscarwatch Awards Daily Most Likely, and my own personal predictions, which aren’t as reliable most years (although I think I did slightly better two years ago than the general consensus).
Like Daniel, I’m skipping Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay and Editing. I think those are no contest — Slumdog will take them and there is no point in discussing those. When the big categories are locked up, the smaller categories become more important. To me, this year the most exciting categories are: Supporting Actress, Actor, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing, and all three of short categories. Exciting, huh?
Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Director: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Best Adapted Screenplay: Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Actor
It remains a difficult choice between Mickey Rourke and Sean Penn. It reminds me of when Daniel Day Lewis was up against Jack Nicholson and Adrien Brody snuck up and won. Is there an Adrien Brody in the woodpile this year? I don’t think so.¬† There are invisible factors at play that probably have little to do with the performance on screen. For instance, how many bridges did Mickey Rourke burn on his trip down? How many in the Academy are pulling for Rourke regardless? These same factors impact the Best Actress race vis a vis Melissa Leo, Kate Winslet and Meryl Streep. Anyone not voting Winslet may choose to vote for Streep or Leo, hence Winslet is still the winner there.
Prediction for Actor: Mickey Rourke
Prediction for Actress: Kate Winslet
Original Screenplay
In the end, though Wall-E is a better film overall, Milk’s is the more accomplished screenplay. Where Frozen River tells a great story, it has one or two moments that makes it tip just ever so slightly into the unbelievable territory. Although many of the Academy’s heavyweights love the movie, people like Clint Eastwood and Dustin Hoffman, one wonders whether it is Melissa Leo or the script. Will they give Courtney Hunt the win because they can’t give it to Melissa Leo? That is very possible, you have to admit, and it would give an out for closet homophobes who can’t abide Milk. On the other hand, if Sean Penn isn’t going to win Best Actor, Dustin Lance Black would be Milk’s only win. Will it go home empty-handed? Happy-Go-Lucky is a dark horse that could win, but isn’t the cat out of the bag that Mike Leigh’s films are all improved by the actors? Why they aren’t listed as writers remains a mystery. And lastly, In Bruges, the BAFTA winner, stands an outside chance of upsetting here.¬† Anything is possible in this category. Milk is still the most likely winner. If I had to pick a spoiler, or an alternate, it would be Frozen River.
Prediction for Original Screenplay: Milk
Supporting Actor
I’ve already written about how I think Heath Ledger could lose. But I don’t really think he’ll lose and this comes down to my own personal feelings about the role. The cynic in me believes the Academy won’t be able to resist this ultimate “fuck you” to everyone in not giving it to Ledger. But when I look at the performances I can’t come up with anyone who was better. If Robert Downey, Jr. wins it will be because he’s alive and because he’s likable. It won’t be because he was better than Ledger.¬† Ditto Josh Brolin. Like the Actress triangulation, anyone not inclined to vote for Ledger will split their votes between Josh Brolin and Robert Downey, Jr., thus Heath Ledger still wins.
Final Prediction: Heath Ledger
Supporting Actress
This is going to be one of the big surprises of the night. Or not. If Penelope Cruz wins it won’t be a surprise. My problem is that I don’t think Cruz’ performance was all that magnificent, especially up against Viola Davis in Doubt, who, in one scene, blows everyone else away. We’ll see. But for now, I’m going with Ms. Davis for the block.
Prediction for Supporting Actress: Viola Davis
Art Direction
Everyone seems to think Benjamin Button has this thing in the bag. This is an award that really can be won with FYC ads. Beauty rules the day, as with cinematography.  Changeling and the Duchess seem to be formidable competitors but this race can often go with a more popular film, a near-miss Best Picture contender or a Best Picture nominee.
Prediction for Art Direction: Benjamin Button
Costumes
The Duchess seems to be the favorite here. 2008 was a great year for costumes. Benjamin Button was my first choice for this since there are so many characters with so many costume changes. But don’t these elaborate period films win usually? There is the tinyest chance that Milk could win this simply because they liked the film and want to see it win more than just one or two awards.
Prediction for Costumes: The Duchess
Cinematography
Why shouldn’t Slumdog win this? Hand-held camera work through the slums of Mumbai but beyond that, exquisite shots of Latika, with sunlight streaming through – just visually stunning in every respect. But then again so is the cinematography in The Dark Knight, Benjamin Button, Changeling and The Reader. That The Reader and Changeling are here tell you how close these voters are to the BAFTA voters, for one thing. Slumdog should still win this in a walk but I could see both Dark Knight and Button upsetting here, especially Benjamin Button, which probably deserves to win.
Last year, the general consensus was right that There Will Be Blood would win (I predicted No Country incorrectly). The year before the general consensus was wrong that Children of Men would win (I correctly predicted Pan’s Labyrinth would win). Pan’s winning was a choice of the heart for me.¬†¬† In looking back over history, cinematography seems to go to the “prettiest” movie. And the last time a film won for cinematography where it wasn’t nominated for art direction (thank you Kris Tapley for looking this up) was American Beauty almost a decade ago. To that end, there are three films nominated for art direction AND cinematography: The Dark Knight, Changeling and Benjamin Button. To my mind, any three should win and could win cinematography. Going by this weird rule, and because I don’t really care about my low score (I always get a low score), I’m going with Benjamin Button for cinematography. My gut tells me that Dark Knight could win this also, by the way, but since Button is “prettier” it gets my prediction, along with art direction. They gave the film 13 Oscar nominations, for goddsake.
Prediction for Cinematography: Benjamin Button
General consensus says (and for your Oscar pool): Slumdog Millionaire
Sound
Sound this year turns out to be most difficult. In a chat with Kris Tapley over at InContention he went back over the sound winners over the past few years and figured out that the big summer blockbuster never wins when you think it should — like Transformers, for instance. Now, granted, Transformers was a film so bad even I with my lowly taste couldn’t get through it. I’m easy to please but this film was just awful in every respect. I’m not surprised, after seeing it, that it didn’t win. I think if you hate a movie you just can’t bring yourself to vote for it in any regard. It is weird that the Academy went for the Bourne movies for both Sound and Sound Editing (Transformers was the general consensus). The year before it was Dreamgirls – musicals are usually the easiest call. And that was the general consensus pick. This year, I feel strongly that it’s Dark Knight for both. I feel equally strongly that it could be Slumdog for both, out of sheer love for that movie. And I feel equally strongly that Wall-E could win both. They could split up between them all. I went with the Dark Knight because it’s the old passion thing. I think it’s the general consensus but it’s difficult to tell.
Prediction for Sound Mixing: The Dark Knight
But don’t be surprised if it’s Wall-E or Slumdog
Sound Editing
Ditto above.¬† These things could be split up – like Slumdog for mixing, Wall-E for editing, Dark Knight for editing, Wall-E for mixing. It’s literally a roll of the dice here.
Prediction for Sound Editing: The Dark Knight
Makeup
I also feel like The Dark Knight could win this but…
Prediction for Makeup: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Documentary
This is a category ripe for an upset. If it isn’t the favorite, it could be The Betrayal or Trouble the Water. I am at a disadvantage because I’ve only seen two.
Prediction for Documentary: Man on Wire
Doc Short
This is one of the more difficult categories for me. Emotions would give it to The Final Inch or Smile Pinki – but they might cancel each other out because they’re both about overcoming physical and health problems. The Witness from the Balcony of Room 306 feels very right now and is incredibly moving because it paints a portrait of Martin Luther King most people haven’t seen. Many people who’ve seen them all are predicting Nhem En to win. I just can’t choose, which is why I’m going with The Final Inch – it feels the most pressing to me politically, like if it wins the Oscar it could really help the polio situation. Just a guess. Witness and Nhem En are the two more popular choices.
Prediction for Doc Short: The Final Inch
Foreign Language
Again, this is one of those weird second-guess-the-Academy’s-defensiveness-of-Israel. If it’s against Israel, will the Jews in the Academy be turned off? If the whole Academy was voting, maybe, but those voting have to have seen all five and who knows who they are and what religion they are? Waltz with Bashir is such an accomplishment it’s hard to imagine them not choosing this film. On the other hand…The Class, on the other hand, Departures…
The general consensus says Waltz with Bashir so that is what I have to go on.
Prediction for Foreign Language: Waltz with Bashir
Animated Feature
Wall-E. Dreamworks has been campaigning hard for Kung Fu Panda but even if I thought Kung Fu Panda could upset there just isn’t any way I could predict it. I didn’t think it was a bad movie but Wall-E is a masterpiece.
Prediction for Animated Film: Wall-E
Animated Short
This comes down to a matter of personal taste. I liked This Way Up better so that’s what I’m voting for. Presto seems the most advanced and is the general consensus pick.
Prediction for Animated Short: This Way Up
Live Action Short
Again, it’s a matter of taste.¬† The Pig is delightful and subtle. New Boy is breathtaking and sweet. Toyland is poignant…they are all great. But I liked The Pig the most, so…
Prediction for Live Action Short: The Pig
Visual Effects
It seems like it’s between The Dark Knight and Benjamin Button but I don’t see how you don’t give this to Button, unless it’s too sophisticated a choice.
Song
Peter Gabriel versus the love for Slumdog. Peter Gabriel is a legend. It’s not the popular choice but…
Prediction for Best Song: Down to Earth
Score
I have a weird feeling Benjamin Button’s beautiful score could upset here but I’m not invested enough to take a big risk.
Prediction for Score: Slumdog Millionaire