It is still true that the director is the star of the Best Picture race. And that will be true even if there is a Picture/Director split. Avatar is now the frontrunner in all respects — it doesn’t have that crucial SAG ensemble nod, but perhaps no one expected it to. Titanic was nominated for two SAG awards, including ensemble. It lost to As Good as it Gets. Remember, there were three big movies that year – LA Confidential, As Good as it Gets and Titanic. And, like this year, there was simply no question which film was BIGGER. It’s still arguable that Titanic was the best film of the bunch, but it was certainly the biggest.
It will be interesting to look back on 2010, the year they expanded Best Pic to ten, the year that the Oscars had to revive themselves from obscurity, the year that a woman had a shot at actually winning the Oscar. But hey, if it turns out she doesn’t, that’s okay. Maybe in 82 more years one will have that chance again.
Meanwhile, tonight’s SAG Awards won’t really change things that much. Best Director at the DGA awards is still very much up in the air. It is probably down to Cameron. Bigelow’s film is a work of art. Cameron’s film is very artful. The Oscars, as we learned from reading over Bona and Wiley’s Inside Oscar, aren’t about art so much as they are about success. The Oscars reward success.¬† I don’t get that the Academy really thinks things through too carefully. How it will split up – what films will draw from other films, hard to say. Right now, to me, it looks like:
The Avatar vote – could be hurt by: District 9, Star Trek, The Hurt Locker — or else a smaller character drama like Up in the Air. But it is sitting pretty with the “everyone else” vote.
The Inglourious Basterds vote – pretty firm throughout race. People who love it are devoted, no matter what.
The Up in the Air vote – a small group of devotees — it is threatened by other character dramas, like An Education, maybe Precious
The Precious vote – this is probably the most emotionally moving of the frontrunners (again, just a generalization).
The Hurt Locker vote – the directors, I would bet, might admire the depth and simplicity in the face of a very difficult shoot on a shoestring budget. Some women might want to support Bigelow.¬† Anyone still interested in box office. Hurt Locker loses votes to Avatar because one is exactly what the other one isn’t.
If I were running these campaigns –
Avatar, I would focus ONLY on the best scenes. I would enthrall with my ads. I would stop focusing on trying to force actors to accept performance capture as acting: it isn’t. It puts them out of work. End of story. My ads would focus on the love story specifically. Keep it off of the military because those scenes are mostly a reminder of the bad writing/acting. I would show the stuff that leaves people in awe – like the downing of Home Tree. And Neytiri sells this movie. She is the prettiest and most memorable thing about it. And she makes the best looking Na’vi all around.¬†¬† [DISCLAIMER: this isn’t MY OWN OPINION — This is how I would run the campaign if I were trying to sell it for best picture — THIS IS NOT MY OWN OPINION — REPEAT — THIS IS NOT MY OWN OPINION — This is just marketing.
The Hurt Locker – my ads would be right on the emotional scenes — not on the action. Closeup of Jeremy Renner in the shower, crying. The scene with the body bomb of the little boy. Licking the blood off of the ammo. The Hurt Locker is the best film, probably, in a general sense, but it must be sold on those scenes because they are why the film is good.
Precious – they are doing a great job so far with the campaign. They’re keeping the focus on Gabby.
Inglourious Basterds – celebrate Tarantino’s gift as a director. Make it all about him. And also highlight the scenes with Christoph Waltz. The scene where he removes the shoe, the scene where he orders the strudel. Any scenes with Melanie Laurent. Tarantino is so visually gifted, the ads should reflect that.¬† I would also print the best lines of dialogue with those ads, especially if they’re Christoph Waltz lines.
The Up in the Air ads – this movie is tough to sell. It is so subtle in its execution that it can’t be sold on being a “big Oscar movie.” I haven’t seen a lot of ads for the film, but if it were me, and what do I know, seriously, but I would focus on the writing. This isn’t a movie Clooney alone can sell. What makes it great is how clever some of the scenes are — like the scene between Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick talking about men. This isn’t a cheerful film, nor a feelgood romance. The best scenes are when Clooney is on the phone helping out his sister and her husband’s future plans – the last shot of the movie, etc.
The SAG Awards
No matter what film wins ensemble tonight — with the possible exception of The Hurt Locker — it won’t change the state of this race.
What we are then focused on the Best Actress and Best Actor race. Probably this is Jeff Bridges’ to win. Meryl Streep and Sandra Bullock are still locked, or else it seems that way. It could be that the Brits have their way and Carey Mulligan will win as the little contender that could. We don’t know for sure that it’s between Meryl and Sandra – we just assume so, based on what has come before. Meryl Streep won just last year. It’s never happened that a lead actress has won twice in two years. And Sandra Bullock is popular with actors because she’s worked with so many of them and they all love her. Of course, they worship Meryl Streep — and Streep’s is the better performance. It’s a toss-up.
George Clooney and Jeff Bridges are the two best likely for Actor. Clooney is Mr. Hollywood right now – riding a wave of success that rivals that of Jack Nicholson. Hard to know if they reward him or not. But if Jeremy Renner wins this (unlikely) watch out for The Hurt Locker.