So, let’s pretend that the Producers Guild isn’t going to be the most predictable race of the entire year. Here is EW’s Dave Karger on tonight’s showdown:
After finding itself completely left out of last night’s Screen Actors Guild Award ceremony, Avatar will need to reassert its awards-season dominance at tonight’s Producers Guild Awards. In the last 20 years, the PGA honoree went on to win Best Picture 13 times, a decent 65 percent success rate. Avatar doesn’t have a cakewalk to victory tonight—with District 9 and Star Trek both in the running as well, the sci-fi-spectacle vote could be split, leading to a win for The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, or Up in the Air. But the good news for Avatar is that this prize is (as the name suggests) voted on only by producers, so there are no pesky actors or writers in the voting body to grouse about the film’s relative weak points. If Avatar loses tonight, we have a real Best Picture race on our hands. But I’m not holding my breath.
Good plan, Dave. But I agree, should pigs actually fly and any film but Avatar win this thing, we do have a true race on our hands. So far, in the big awards showdown, The Hurt Locker won the Critics Choice, Avatar has won the Globe. The Hurt Locker has shattered all of the critics awards, but, as we know, critics don’t vote for the Oscars.
Let’s look at the best contenders to win this, from most likely on down.
AVATAR
Producers: James Cameron, Jon Landau
Jim Cameron’s lifelong dream realized. At $550 odd million, it has just sped past The Dark Knight (in five weeks) and is fast on its way to becoming the highest grossing film of all time (not adjusted for inflation). Metacritic rating: 84 (in the Oscar zone). An experience more than a film, Avatar is being seen as the game-changer animation/live action 3-D hybrid that is advancing the medium like no other. It is a beautiful love story on top of that. 100% success.
DISTRICT 9
Producers: Carolynne Cunningham, Peter Jackson
The successful short film that was turned into a feature – one of the most entertaining films of the year. Carries with it a message about racism, immigration and apartheid. Box Office total: $118 million. Metacritic rating of 81 (in the Oscar zone).
THE HURT LOCKER
The most critically praised film of the year. The exact opposite of Avatar in every respect – up to and including its handling of its war message. Avatar is escapist fare where we get to pretend that we were the good guys who helped drive out the money-grubbing invaders; in The Hurt Locker the war is portrayed as it is. Unending, confusing, devastating to all involved. Fantasy vs. realism. Guess which one people wanted to see?¬† But producers sometimes can reward films that were made for the sake of making a good film whether or not Americans “wanted to see it” or not. Box office total: $12 million. Worth noting that the film was kind of screwed with release date — and that they deliberately did not hire popular movie stars for the role.¬† The Hurt Locker is a movie out of its time. But it will routinely place on lists of the best films ever made. It is no surprise that it won’t win — none of the really great films ever do. Metacritic rating: A whopping 94 (way above the usual Oscar zone)
INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS
Producer: Lawrence Bender
Not quite sure what the critics were smoking when they reviewed this movie but I suspect it’s that Tarantino has joined Scorsese’s class, where the films have to be seen twice to be fully appreciated. So you might say, why? I should be able to get a film in one shot. If you think that you’ll never understand why Citizen Kane is considered the best film ever made by a great many critics.
Box Office: $120 million.
Metacritic rating: 69 (slightly below the usual Oscar zone)
STAR TREK
Producers: J.J. Abrams, Damon Lindelof
Incredibly entertaining and successful sci-fi, considered a respectable homage to the original series. Still, had a better chance at this award without Avatar.
Box office: $257 million.
Metacritic rating: 83 (in the Oscar zone)
And then the films that did well enough to be nominated but don’t really stand a chance of winning:
UP IN THE AIR
Producer(s): Awaiting final credit determination.
PRECIOUS: BASED ON THE NOVEL PUSH BY SAPPHIRE
Producers: Lee Daniels, Gary Magness, Sarah Siegel-Magness
UP
Producer: Jonas Rivera
AN EDUCATION
Producers: Finola Dwyer, Amanda Posey
INVICTUS
Producers: Clint Eastwood, Rob Lorenz, Lori McCreary , Mace Neufeld
I asked a few folks to predict the PGAs but since everyone said Avatar it sort of seems like a useless exercise. This award will be announced some time late tonight. We expect and predict Avatar to take it home.
Producers Guild | Best Picture
Won PGA | Won Oscar
2008
Frost/Nixon | Frost/Nixon |
Milk | Milk |
The Dark Knight | The Reader |
Slumdog Millionaire | Slumdog Millionaire |
Benjamin Button | Benjamin Button |
2007
There Will Be Blood | There Will Be Blood |
Juno | Juno |
Diving Bell and Butterfly | Atonement |
No Country for Old Men | No Country for Old Men |
Michael Clayton | Michael Clayton |
2006
Babel | Babel |
The Departed | The Departed |
Dreamgirls | Letters from Iwo Jima |
Little Miss Sunshine | Little Miss Sunshine |
The Queen | The Queen |
2005
Crash | Crash |
Brokeback Mountain | Brokeback Mountain |
Capote | Capote |
Good Night, and Good Luck | Good Night, and Good Luck |
Walk the Line | Munich |
2004
Finding Neverland | Finding Neverland |
Million Dollar Baby | Million Dollar Baby |
The Aviator | The Aviator |
Sideways | Sideways |
The Incredibles | Ray |
2003
Seabiscuit | Seabiscuit |
Mystic River | Mystic River |
Master and Commander | Master and Commander |
ROTK | ROTK |
The Last Samurai | Lost in Translation |
Cold Mountain |
2002
Adaptation | The Pianist |
Chicago | Chicago |
Gangs of New York | Gangs of New York |
Lord of the Rings: Two Towers | Two Towers |
My Big Fat Greek Wedding | The Hours |
Road to Perdition |
2001
A Beautiful Mind | A Beautiful Mind |
The Lord of the Rings | The Lord of the Rings |
Harry Potter | Gosford Park |
Moulin Rouge | Moulin Rouge |
Shrek | In the Bedroom |
2000
Gladiator | Gladiator |
Almost Famous | Traffic |
Erin Brockovich* | Erin Brockovich |
Billy Elliot | Chocolat |
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon* | Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon |
1999
The Cider House Rules | The Cider House Rules |
American Beauty | American Beauty |
The Insider | The Insider |
Being John Malkovich | The Green Mile |
The Hurricane | The Sixth Sense |
1998
Life Is Beautiful | Life Is Beautiful |
Shakespeare In Love | Shakespeare In Love |
Gods and Monsters | The Thin Red Line |
Waking Ned Devine | Elizabeth |
Saving Private Ryan | Saving Private Ryan |
1997
Titanic | Titanic |
Amistad | The Full Monty |
L. A. Confidential | L. A. Confidential |
As Good As It Gets | As Good as it Gets |
for Good Will Hunting | Good Will Hunting |
1996
Fargo | Fargo |
Shine | Shine |
Hamlet | Secrets & Lies |
The People vs. Larry Flynt | Jerry Maguire |
The English Patient | The English Patient |
1995
Leaving Las Vegas | Babe |
Dead Man Walking | Braveheart |
Apollo 13 | Apollo 13 |
Sense and Sensibility | Sense and Sensibility |
Il Postino | Il Postino |
The Bridges of Madison County | |
The American President |
1994
EXACT MATCH
Four Weddings and a Funeral | Four Weddings and a Funeral |
Forrest Gump | Forrest Gump |
Quiz Show | Quiz Show |
Pulp Fiction | Pulp Fiction |
The Shawshank Redemption | The Shawshank Redemption |
1993
EXACT MATCH
The Fugitive | The Fugitive |
Schindler’s List | Schindler’s List |
The Remains Of the Day | The Remains Of the Day |
The Piano | The Piano |
In the Name Of the Father | In the Name Of the Father |
1992
A Few Good Men | A Few Good Men |
The Crying Game | The Crying Game |
Unforgiven | Unforgiven |
Scent Of a Woman | Scent Of a Woman |
Howards End | Howards End |
1991
The Silence Of the Lambs |
The Silence Of the Lambs |
1990
Dances With Wolves | Dances With Wolves |
1989
Driving Miss Daisy | Driving Miss Daisy |