Since Oscar changed its date back in the early 2000s, it threw an already established awards pattern out of whack. I often think of the awards race like migrating herds. If the climate changes, it throws off their rhythm and they must readjust. A great readjustment took place before, and now it’s happening again. Usually, the Sundance Film Fest happens right around the same time of the Oscar nominations.
Usually the Oscar nominations take place before the SAG Awards (even if by just a little bit) just enough so that it would usually turn out that the Oscar nominee had the best shot of winning the SAG by default.
With ballots already turned in by the time of the SAG telecast, we can’t know if any of the SAG winners will be nominated for certain or not. More often than not, the SAG winners are in line to win the Oscar automatically.
But how will it turn out this year? As far as actors go, there is only one big show left before the Oscars — the BAFTAs, which take place right in the fertile season of Oscar voting, February 21. Final polls close on March 2.¬†¬† That puts the BAFTAs arguably in the best possible position in the precursor run. No one plans these thing this way, but this is how it turned out this year.
The Oscars used to be held in late March — so this date change isn’t quite that dramatic, but one can see the subtle ways the date change has shifted this race, the SAG awards being held after Oscar ballots had already been turned in, for instance.
But, at this point, there is no reason to assume that all four of these actors will then go on to win the Oscar. Throwing a slight kink in the works is the small fact that Sandra Bullock was not nominated for the BAFTA because The Blind Side was not eligible for those awards. That means that another actress (maybe Meryl Streep, maybe Carey Mulligan) could be put in her place on Oscar ballots, even with the SAG vote so influential.  Still, at this point, we should put our money on Bullock.
But let’s take a look at the history of the actor race up to the BAFTAs. Here are winners charts for the Globes/SAG/Oscar. Generally, winning both the Globe and the SAG results in winning the Oscar, but not always. The Globes and the Critics Choice matched the acting categories 100% this year so you can figure them into the mix as well.
Usually, with men, winning both the Globe and the SAG has almost always resulted in an Oscar win. In fact, the only actor to do it was Denzel Washington for Training Day. Other forces were at work with that vote. Russell Crowe had been caught behaving badly. He had already won a Lead Actor Oscar for Gladiator and would have won for A Beautiful Mind if there hadn’t been that poetry debacle at the BAFTAs. Or something. Denzel Washington, by contrast, had never won a Lead Oscar before, had a lot of supporters within the industry supporting his win, and he was caught up in the excitement that Halle Berry would become the first black actress to ever win in the lead category.
Globes – SAG – Oscar
2009
Jeff Bridges/Robert Downey, Jr.
Jeff Bridges
Sandra Bullock/Meryl Streep
Sandra Bullock
Mo’Nique
Mo’Nique
Christoph Waltz
Christoph Waltz
2008
Mickey Rourke/Colin Farrell
Sean Penn
Sean Penn
Kate Winslet/Sally Hawkins
Meryl Streep
Kate Winslet
Kate Winslet
Kate Winslet
Penelope Cruz
Heath Ledger
Heath Ledger
Heath Ledger
2007
Daniel Day Lewis
Daniel Day Lewis
Daniel Day Lewis
Julie Christie/Marion Cotillard
Julie Christie
Marion Cotillard
Javier Bardem
Javier Bardem
Javier Bardem
Cate Blanchett
Ruby Dee
Tilda Swinton
2006
Forest Whitaker
Forest Whitaker
Forest Whitaker
Helen Mirren
Helen Mirren
Helen Mirren
Jennifer Hudson
Jennifer Hudson
Jennifer Hudson
Eddie Murphy
Eddie Murphy
Alan Arkin
Babel/Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
The Departed
2005
Philip Seymour Hoffman/Joaquin Phoenix
Philip Seymour Hoffman
Philip Seymour Hoffman
Reese Witherspoon/Felicity Huffman
Reese Witherspoon
Reese Witherspoon
Rachel Weisz
Rachel Weisz
Rachel Weisz
George Clooney
Paul Giamatti
George Clooney
Brokeback/Walk the Line
Crash
Crash
2004
Leonardo DiCap/Jamie Foxx
Jamie Foxx
Jamie Fox
Hilary Swank
Hilary Swank
Hilary Swank
Natalie Portman
Cate Blanchett
Cate Blanchett
Clive Owen
Morgan Freeman
Morgan Freeman
Aviator/Sideways
Sideways
MDB
2003
Sean Penn
Johnny Depp
Sean Penn
Charlize Theron
Charlize Theron
Charlize Theron
Renee Zellweger
Renee Zellweger
Renee Zellweger
Tim Robbins
Tim Robbins
Tim Robbins
ROTK
ROTK
ROTK
2002
Jack Nicholson
Daniel Day Lewis
Adrien Brody
Nicole Kidman/Zellweger
Renee Zellweger
Nicole Kidman
Meryl Streep
Catherine Zeta-Jones
Catherine Zeta-Jones
Chris Cooper
Chris Walken
Chris Cooper
The Hours/Chicago
Chicago
Chicago
2001
Russell Crowe
Russell Crowe
Denzel Washington
Sissy Spacek
Halle Berry
Halle Berry
Jennifer Connelly
Helen Mirren
Jennifer Connelly
Jim Broadbent
Ian McKellen
Jim Broadbent
A Beautiful Mind (Moulin Rouge)
Gosford Park (ensemble)
A Beautiful Mind
2000
Tom Hanks
Benicio Del Toro
Russell Crowe
Julia Roberts
Julia Roberts
Julia Roberts
Kate Hudson
Judi Dench
Marcia Gay Harden
Benicio Del Toro
Albert Finney
Benicio Del Toro
Gladiator (Almost Famous)
Traffic
Gladiator
1999
Denzel Washington
Kevin Spacey
Kevin Spacey
Hilary Swank
Annette Bening
Hilary Swank
Angelina Jolie
Angelina Jolie
Angelina Jolie
Tom Cruise
Michael Caine
Michael Caine
American Beauty
American Beauty
American Beauty
1998
Jim Carrey (Michael Caine)
Roberto Benigni
Roberto Benigni
Gwyneth Paltrow (Cate Blanchett)
Gwyneth Paltrow
Gwyneth Paltrow
Lynn Redgrave
Kathy Bates
Judi Dench
Ed Harris
Robert Duvall
James Coburn
Shakespeare in Love
Shakespeare in Love
Shakespeare in Love
1997
Jack Nicholson (Peter Fonda)
Jack Nicholson
Jack Nicholson
Helen Hunt (Judi Dench)
Helen Hunt
Helen Hunt
Kim Basinger
Kim Basinger (and Gloria Stewart)
Kim Basinger
Burt Reynolds
Robin Williams
Robin Williams
Titanic
The Full Monty
Titanic
1996
Geoffrey Rush (Tom Cruise)
Geoffrey Rush
Geoffrey Rush
Brenda Blethyn (Madonna)
Frances McDormand
Frances McDormand
Lauren Bacall
Lauren Bacall
Juliette Binoche
Ed Norton
Cuba Gooding, Jr.
Cuba Gooding, Jr.
The English Patient (Evita)
The Birdcage
The English Patient
1995
Nicolas Cage (John Travolta)
Nicolas Cage
Nicolas Cage
Sharon Stone (Nicole Kidman)
Susan Sarandon
Susan Sarandon
Mira Sorvino
Kate Winslet
Mira Sorvino
Brad Pitt
Ed Harris
Kevin Spacey
Sense & Sensibility (Babe)
Apollo 13
Braveheart
1994
Tom Hanks (Hugh Grant)
Tom Hanks
Tom Hanks
Jessica Lange (Jamie Lee Curtis)
Jodie Foster
Jessica Lange
Dianne Wiest
Diane Wiest
Dianne Wiest
Martin Landau
Ed Harris
Martin Landau
Forrest Gump
Forrest Gump
1993
Globes —> Oscar only
Tom Hanks
Tom Hanks
Holly Hunter
Holly Hunter
Winona Ryder
Anna Paquin
Tommy Lee Jones
Tommy Lee Jones
Schindler’s List
Schindler’s List
1992
Al Pacino
Al Pacino
Emma Thompson
Emma Thompson
Joan Plowright
Marisa Tomei
Gene Hackman
Gene Hackman
Scent of a Woman
Unforgiven
1991
Nick Nolte
Anthony Hopkins
Jodie Foster
Jodie Foster
Mercedes Ruehl
Mercedes Ruehl
Jack Palance
Jack Palance
Bugsy
Silence of the Lambs
1990
Jeremy Irons
Jeremy Irons
Kathy Bates
Kathy Bates
Whoopi Goldberg
Whoopi Goldberg
Bruce Davidson
Joe Pesci
Dances with Wolves
Dances with Wolves
1989
Tom Cruise
Daniel Day Lewis
Jessica Tandy m/c
Jessica Tandy
Julia Roberts
Brenda Fricker
Denzel Washington
Denzel Washington
Born 4th July – Driving Miss Daisy m/c
Driving Miss Daisy
1988
Tom Cruise
Dustin Hoffman
Jodie Foster/Shirley MacLaine/Sigourney Weaver
Jodie Foster
Sigourney Weaver
Geena Davis
Martin Landau
Kevin Kline
Rain Man
Rain Man
1987
Michael Douglas
Michael Douglas
Cher (comedy)
Cher
Olympia Dukakis
Olympia Dukakis
Sean Connery
Sean Connery
The Last Emperor
The Last Emperor
1986
Bob Hoskins
Paul Nemwan
Marlee Matlin/Sissy Spacek (comedy)
Marlee Matlin
Maggie Smith
Dianne Wiest
Bob Hoskins
Michael Caine
Platoon
Platoon
1985
Jon Voight (Jack Nicholson)
William Hurt
Whoopi Goldberg (Kathleen Turner)
Geraldine Page
Meg Tilly
Anjelica Huston
Klaus Maria Brandauer
Don Amiche
Out of Africa (Prizzi’s Honor)
Out of Africa
1984
F. Murray Abraham
F. Murray Abraham
Sally Field
Sally Field
Peggy Ashcroft
Peggy Ashcroft
Haing S. Ngor
Haing S. Ngor
Amadeus
Amadeus
1983
Tom Courtenay /Robert Duvall (tie) (Michael Caine)
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