I love this talk between these three – Tim Appelo from the Hollywood Reporter, Tom O’Neil from Gold Derby and Pete Hammond from Deadline. I like all three of these guys. But I have to tell Mr. Appelo that a few of us did know that The Hurt Locker was headed for a Best Pic win. Although I will admit to not being sure whether or not Avatar would overtake. It became all too clear after the PGA’s, though, that The Hurt Locker would win.
These guys are talking about how the critics awards influence Oscar voters. I would take this idea one step further and say that the AMPAS is, inexplicably, enjoying its best decade of taste since the 1970s. So, bravo to them. I think some good points are brought up here. If I had been there I would have had a good time arguing with these boys.
As far as choosing what film will win Best Picture, think of it this way, Oscar watchers — think of what film is the BEST film of the year and work from that premise. You simply cannot work from any other. That is my opinion on the matter. So, I always watch when people say the following, “this is the film I liked the most but it won’t win.” Right now, I think there are two movies that fit.
Tim Appelo and Pete Hammond seem convinced The Social Network won’t win. They mention The Fighter as a possible spoiler. So, right now, the films people see beating The Social Network are The King’s Speech, The Fighter, Toy Story 3, Inception, Black Swan and True Grit. Find the best movie, the best film, and work from there.