Next weekend is going to likely shift the race in one direction or another. Up to now, we really have been just playing a guessing game, the kind where you throw it all up on the wall to see what sticks. But by the end of the weekend, when the New York Film Critics Online, the LA Film Critics and the New York Film Critics Circle announce their awards, it we should maybe have a better idea of consensus. It could also turn out to be all over the place and then we really do have a race on our hands. One odd pick by them could shift things, or it could be one of those American Splendor moments where it has nothing to do with anything at all. Sometimes a big move by them CAN alter the course of the race, but other times it proves interesting for sure, but has little or no impact on the way the Oscars turn out.
We don’t know yet, despite all of the many volumes written to the contrary, what kind of a year this is going to be. Is it a sweeps year? Is it a split year? Can any film win? Or can only one film win….We are in the dark here! But let’s, for now, turn our attention to the delightful group otherwise known as the LAFCA, the Los Angeles Film Critics. Let’s talk a bit about their history, look at a big old chart, and ruminate on where they might be headed when they sit down and vote.
The LA Film critics were founded in 1975. They have members like Kenneth Turan, Glenn Whipp, Leonard Maltin, Todd McCarthy, John Powers (full member list after the cut). They have a good many members, which will put us in the whole majority-vote scenario, which is good for trying to figure out what kinds of films lately most people are starting to agree upon.
It is also worth mentioning that the LAFCA tend to be a little more obtuse than the NYFCC, but only slightly. The LAFCA likes to sometimes make bold moves out of the box, where New York is a little more in step with Oscar somehow. Don’t ask me why that is, unless you want me to sit back in my armchair and start psychologizing. The facts are the facts — you can look at the chart below and see how New York edges ever so slightly closer to Oscar than LAFCA.
But occasionally, when both coasts unite behind a film, that can sometimes spell Oscar, as it did last year. The Hurt locker really did need the support of the critics and they rallied behind it in the hills and the meadows, they shouted it from the rooftops – and their support of it made it too big to ignore, in a way. The critics can, therefore, be quite influential when they can agree upon one film to rule them all. But not always. Look at the fates of Leaving Las Vegas, LA Confidential, Saving Private Ryan, Brokeback Mountain and Sideways. A film like Slumdog Millionaire can still come from behind, win hearts and trump any critic award. You just never know. Before The Hurt Locker did it last year, the last film to take LA, NY and Oscar was Schindler’s List. Terms of Endearment before that. And Kramer vs. Kramer before that.
That makes me really curious about how they’re going to vote this year. I have my suspicions. So here are a few random facts we know that may or may not play into the way the LAFCA votes. Black Swan might seem like a good choice for any critics group to distinguish itself, but it doesn’t quite have the reviews, especially from LA, to be the frontrunner here. The one to watch out for, other than The Social Network, is Toy Story 3, the film I am currently predicting they will vote for. I also expect Sofia Coppola’s Somewhere to make its mark somewhere in the next few days, popping up either in New York or Los Angeles and thus, putting that film on the awards map.
Any flutter in one direction or another could be like the butterfly that flaps its wings in China and changes the weather patterns in Seattle. If, say, The Fighter won either of these coastal awards that would shoot that film right to the top. True Grit is another film that could greatly benefit from a big critics award like this one.
When they voted for There Will Be Blood, for instance, it seemed like an irritating anti-vote against No Country — this accusation sparked a debate with Scott Foundas, that we still remember fondly. However, that was a good choice for them, and it absolutely firmed up that film’s place in the race. But New York went with No Country and so did, ultimately, the AMPAS.
It should be said that critics are different animals from AMPAS voters. Critics write about movies, AMPAS voters make movies. They movies with their friends, employers, mentors, etc. It is a whole different ball of wax. But the AMPAS needs the critics to put the films in proper context, I have always believed. The critics aren’t everything, but they are a huge piece of the big picture.
We will be posting predictions as we get closer to the big day, but for now, here is a look back at the chart for the LAFCA and the NYFCC.
LAFCA | New York Film Critics | Oscar – Best Picture
*Also nominated for best picture
2009 | The Hurt Locker | The Hurt Locker | The Hurt Locker |
2008 | Wall-E | Milk* | Slumdog Millionaire |
2007 | There Will Be Blood* | No Country for Old Men+ | No Country |
2006 | Letters from Iwo Jima* | United 93 | |
2005 | Brokeback Mountain* | Brokeback Mountain* | Crash |
2004 | Sideways* | Sideways* | Million Dollar Baby |
2003 | American Splendour | Return of the King | Return of the King |
2002 | About Schmidt | Far From Heaven | Chicago |
2001 | In the Bedroom* | Mulholland Drive | A Beautiful Mind |
2000 | Crouching Tiger* | Traffic* | Gladiator |
1999 | The Insider* | Topsy-Turvy | American Beauty |
1998 | Saving Private Ryan* | Saving Private Ryan* | Shakespeare in Love |
1997 | L.A. Confidential* | L.A. Confidential* | Titanic |
1996 | Secrets & Lies* | Fargo* | The English Patient |
1995 | Leaving Las Vegas | Leaving Las Vegas | Braveheart |
1994 | Pulp Fiction* | Quiz Show* | Forrest Gump |
1993 | Schindler’s List+ | Schindler’s List+ | Schindler’s List |
1992 | Unforgiven+ | The Player | Unforgiven |
1991 | Bugsy* | The Silence of the Lambs+ | Silence of the Lambs |
1990 | Goodfellas* | Goodfellas* | Dances With Wolves |
1989 | Do the Right Thing | My Left Foot* | Driving Miss Daisy |
1988 | Little Dorrit | The Accidental Tourist* | Rain Man |
1987 | Hope and Glory* | Broadcast News* | The Last Emperor |
1986 | Hannah and Her Sisters* | Hannah and Her Sisters* | Platoon |
1985 | Brazil | Prizzi’s Honor* | Out of Africa |
1984 | Amadeus+ | Passage to India* | Amadeus |
1983 | Terms of Endearment+ | Terms of Endearment+ | Terms of Endearment |
1982 | E.T.* | Gandhi+ | Gandhi |
1981 | Atlantic City* | Reds* | Chariots of Fire |
1980 | Raging Bull* | Ordinary People+ | Ordinary People |
1979 | Kramer Vs. Kramer+ | Kramer Vs. Kramer+ | Kramer Vs. Kramer |
1978 | Coming Home* | The Deer Hunter+ | The Deer Hunter |
1977 | Star Wars* | Annie Hall+ | Annie Hall |
1976 | Network* | All the President’s Men* | Rocky |
1975 | Dog Day Afternoon* | Nashville* | One Flew Over/Cukoo’s Nest |
1974 | Armacord | Godfather II | |
1973 | La Nuit Américaine | The Sting | |
1972 | Viskningar och rop | The Godfather | |
1971 | A Clockwork Orange* | The French Connection | |
1970 | Five Easy Pieces* | Patton | |
1969 | Z* | Midnight Cowboy | |
1968 | Lion in Winter* | Oliver | |
1967 | In the Heat of the Night+ | In the Heat of the Night | |
1966 | A Man for All Seasons* | A Man for all Seasons | |
1965 | Darling* | the Sound of Music | |
1964 | My Fair Lady+ | My Fair Lady | |
1963 | Tom Jones+ | Tom Jones | |
1962 | none | Lawrence of Arabia | |
1961 | West Side Story+ | West Side Story | |
1960 | The Apartment+ | Billy Wilder, The Apartment | |
1959 | Ben Hur+ | Ben Hur | |
1958 | THe Defiant Ones* | Gigi | |
1957 | Bridge on the River Kwai+ | Bridge on the River Kwai | |
1956 | Around the World in 80 Days+ | Around/World in 80 Days | |
1955 | Marty+ | Delbert Mann, Marty | |
1954 | On the Waterfront+ | Elia Kazan, On the Waterfront | |
1953 | From Here to Eternity+ | From Here to Eternity | |
1952 | High Noon* | The Greatest Show on Earth | |
1951 | Streetcar Named Desire* | An American in Paris | |
1950 | All About Eve+ | All About Eve |
LA Film critics are:
Robert Abele
David Ansen
ANDREW barker
Charles Champlin
Justin Chang
Peter Debruge
Alonso Duralde
David Ehrenstein
Stephen Farber
F.X. Feeney
Scott Foundas
Todd Gilchrist
Mike Goodridge
James Greenberg
Ray Greene
TIM Grierson
Kirk Honeycutt
Mark Keizer
Leonard Klady
Andy Klein
Robert Koehler
Christy Lemire
Emanuel Levy
Sheri Linden
Lael Loewenstein
justin lowe
Wade Major
Leonard Maltin
Willard Manus
Todd McCarthy
Myron Meisel
Joe Morgenstern
AMY Nicholson
Jean Oppenheimer
HJ Park
John Powers
Claudia Puig
Peter Rainer
Michael Rechtshaffen
Harriet Robbins
James Rocchi
Richard Schickel
Henry Sheehan
Brent Simon
Charles Solomon
Bob Strauss
Ella Taylor
Kevin Thomas
Luke Y. Thompson
Kenneth Turan
Glenn Whipp
Chuck wilson