I’m not buying the whole LA and NY will vote for The Social Network thing, putting their might behind that movie. Just not buying it. Gold Derby, god love them, sent out an email blast that said loud and proud – THE SOCIAL NETWORK WILL WIN NEW YORK AND LA.
But we know that this is just a consensus assumption by people who take wild guesses. And it’s just the kind of thing that will prompt voters to say, “oh yeah?” Nobody likes being a foregone conclusion, least of all film critics. So I suspect there will be many Social Network supporters, but no way does it win both coasts. Just saying.
Since the supply continues to outmatch the demand for Oscar coverage, there is a desire to be right and be right earlier and earlier. The truth is that the Oscar race is not fixed; it’s fluid. That means how a film plays at one awards show can impact how it plays overall. It’s just the funny way people are. It’s all about perception, right? So those of us who claim we know how it’s going to turn out? We have no clue.
Meanwhile, the New York Film Critics have been around a lot longer and do seem to have had some influence on Oscar voters. It’s hard to know what they’ll do. Like LA, they definitely do their own thing. We’ll just have to wait and see. We’ll be posting our predictions tomorrow, along with a contest for you smart people.
Once again, here is a comparison chart, followed by the member list:
LAFCA | New York Film Critics | Oscar – Best Picture
*Also nominated for best picture
2009 | The Hurt Locker | The Hurt Locker | The Hurt Locker |
2008 | Wall-E | Milk* | Slumdog Millionaire |
2007 | There Will Be Blood* | No Country for Old Men+ | No Country |
2006 | Letters from Iwo Jima* | United 93 | |
2005 | Brokeback Mountain* | Brokeback Mountain* | Crash |
2004 | Sideways* | Sideways* | Million Dollar Baby |
2003 | American Splendour | Return of the King | Return of the King |
2002 | About Schmidt | Far From Heaven | Chicago |
2001 | In the Bedroom* | Mulholland Drive | A Beautiful Mind |
2000 | Crouching Tiger* | Traffic* | Gladiator |
1999 | The Insider* | Topsy-Turvy | American Beauty |
1998 | Saving Private Ryan* | Saving Private Ryan* | Shakespeare in Love |
1997 | L.A. Confidential* | L.A. Confidential* | Titanic |
1996 | Secrets & Lies* | Fargo* | The English Patient |
1995 | Leaving Las Vegas | Leaving Las Vegas | Braveheart |
1994 | Pulp Fiction* | Quiz Show* | Forrest Gump |
1993 | Schindler’s List+ | Schindler’s List+ | Schindler’s List |
1992 | Unforgiven+ | The Player | Unforgiven |
1991 | Bugsy* | The Silence of the Lambs+ | Silence of the Lambs |
1990 | Goodfellas* | Goodfellas* | Dances With Wolves |
1989 | Do the Right Thing | My Left Foot* | Driving Miss Daisy |
1988 | Little Dorrit | The Accidental Tourist* | Rain Man |
1987 | Hope and Glory* | Broadcast News* | The Last Emperor |
1986 | Hannah and Her Sisters* | Hannah and Her Sisters* | Platoon |
1985 | Brazil | Prizzi’s Honor* | Out of Africa |
1984 | Amadeus+ | Passage to India* | Amadeus |
1983 | Terms of Endearment+ | Terms of Endearment+ | Terms of Endearment |
1982 | E.T.* | Gandhi+ | Gandhi |
1981 | Atlantic City* | Reds* | Chariots of Fire |
1980 | Raging Bull* | Ordinary People+ | Ordinary People |
1979 | Kramer Vs. Kramer+ | Kramer Vs. Kramer+ | Kramer Vs. Kramer |
1978 | Coming Home* | The Deer Hunter+ | The Deer Hunter |
1977 | Star Wars* | Annie Hall+ | Annie Hall |
1976 | Network* | All the President’s Men* | Rocky |
1975 | Dog Day Afternoon* | Nashville* | One Flew Over/Cukoo’s Nest |
1974 | Armacord | Godfather II | |
1973 | La Nuit Américaine | The Sting | |
1972 | Viskningar och rop | The Godfather | |
1971 | A Clockwork Orange* | The French Connection | |
1970 | Five Easy Pieces* | Patton | |
1969 | Z* | Midnight Cowboy | |
1968 | Lion in Winter* | Oliver | |
1967 | In the Heat of the Night+ | In the Heat of the Night | |
1966 | A Man for All Seasons* | A Man for all Seasons | |
1965 | Darling* | the Sound of Music | |
1964 | My Fair Lady+ | My Fair Lady | |
1963 | Tom Jones+ | Tom Jones | |
1962 | none | Lawrence of Arabia | |
1961 | West Side Story+ | West Side Story | |
1960 | The Apartment+ | Billy Wilder, The Apartment | |
1959 | Ben Hur+ | Ben Hur | |
1958 | THe Defiant Ones* | Gigi | |
1957 | Bridge on the River Kwai+ | Bridge on the River Kwai | |
1956 | Around the World in 80 Days+ | Around/World in 80 Days | |
1955 | Marty+ | Delbert Mann, Marty | |
1954 | On the Waterfront+ | Elia Kazan, On the Waterfront | |
1953 | From Here to Eternity+ | From Here to Eternity | |
1952 | High Noon* | The Greatest Show on Earth | |
1951 | Streetcar Named Desire* | An American in Paris | |
1950 | All About Eve+ | All About Eve |
Thelma Adams, US Weekly
John Anderson, Newsday
Melissa Anderson, Time Out New York
David Ansen, Newsweek
Dwight Brown, NNPA & UPSCALE
Richard Corliss, Time
Mike D’Angelo, Esquire Magazine
David Denby, New Yorker
Karen Durbin, Elle Magazine
David Edelstein, New York Magazine
David Fear, Time Out New York
Marshall Fine, Star Magazine
Owen Gleiberman, Entertainment Weekly
J. Hoberman, Village Voice
Stuart Klawans, The Nation
Lou Lumenick, New York Post
Joe Morgenstern, Wall Street Journal
Vincent Musetto, New York Post
Peter Rainer, Christian Science Monitor
Rex Reed, New York Observer
Joshua Rothkopf, Time Out New York
Leah Rozen, People Magazine
Andrew Sarris, New York Observer
Richard Schickel, Time
Lisa Schwarzbaum, Entertainment Weekly
Kyle Smith, New York Post
Steve Snyder, New York Sun
Dana Stevens, Slate.com
Peter Travers, Rolling Stone
Elizabeth Weitzman, New York Daily News
Armond White, NY Press
Stephen Whitty, Newhouse Newspapers
Stephanie Zacharek, Salon.com