On Monday, the Directors Guild, probably the most important guild for determining the Best picture winner, will announce their nominees. Many of you have already entered our predictions contest and it’s true that it feels like there are a few names floating around that seem to have risen to the top.
For most of the 83 years of Oscar history, year after year has backed up the theory that the director is the star of the Best Picture race. Splits happen when the public happens to like one movie over the directors’ choice, and generally, the directors can tend to be more in line with the critics. This isn’t always the case – Jim Cameron won the DGA for Titanic, even though LA Confidential won most of the critics awards. But winning the DGA is one of the most reliable indicators that your film is about to win Best Picture. Is it 100%? Of course it can’t be, nothing really is where the fickle choices of humans are concerned. But I don’t think you can lose if you put your money on the DGA.
If the Gurus of Gold (well, many of them anyway) are to be believed, The King’s Speech is the film that will win Best Picture even if David Fincher manages to win Best Director. Obviously if Tom Hooper wins the DGA, it’s a done deal for The King’s Speech, or David O. Russell for The Fighter. If Darren Aronofsky won the DGA, that is the only way you’d be looking at a likely split, in my opinion. Aronofsky could win Director and The Social Network could win Picture, or The King’s Speech come to that.
The pundits have talking of a split, it should be said, going back to The Departed (most were predicting Brokeback Mountain when Crash shocked most everyone to win). Slumdog Millionaire was the only film I’ve seen since Brokeback where the pundits were in agreement about the inevitability of a Picture/Director match-up. But before Brokeback, there were plenty of sure things. Chicago split the vote when Roman Polanski won Best Director. Pundits like Dave Karger, Anne Thompson and Kris Tapley seem to be counting on The King’s Speech being the Shakespeare in Love to The Social Network’s Private Ryan, or Chicago to The Pianist, or Crash to Brokeback.
Splits happen when voters like the movie but either don’t know or don’t regard the director with as much importance, even when that director is Ridley Scott. That is why they are thinking The King’s Speech (in addition to the Academy screenings that had people cheering at the end).
It’s a strange and mostly rare thing, when the movie is thought of with higher regard than the director. The majority of the time with Oscar, director matches picture because the Best Picture is often the credit of the Best Director. There have to be two films of equal popularity in the race. If there are more than two, you are probably not looking at a split. For instance, True Grit’s popularity hurts The King’s Speech and vice-versa. The Fighter’s popularity hurts them both. The Social Network likely has a base that continues to keep it in good stead.
But we still don’t know which direction the wind will blow. Things that can shift the race would include The King’s Speech or The Fighter or True Grit winning the PGA. Anybody but David Fincher winning the DGA, because right now, a perfect storm is brewing for The Social Network, with writing, acting and directing all being celebrated equally, so far anyway. But the pundits would tell you that the critics aren’t the guild voters — nor are they the Academy voters.
And so it goes.
So, let’s quickly look at the standings of our Best Directors currently and how they stack up with history.
1. David Fincher, The Social Network
Wins so far:
Boston Film Critics
National Board of Review
Vancouver Film Critics
Washington DC Area Film Critics
Los Angeles Film Critics
New York Film Critics
Southeastern Film Critics
San Francisco
Toronto
Vegas
Chicago
Dallas
Oklahoma
Online Film Critics
Nominations:
Golden Globe
Critics Choice
2. Christopher Nolan, Inception
Wins so far:
Central Ohio
Indiana
Phoenix
Utah
Kansas City
Nominations:
Golden Globes
Critics Choice
3. Darren Aronofsky
Wins so far:
Wins:
San Diego
San Francisco
Austin
Nominations:
Golden Globes
Critics Choice
4. Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
Nominations:
Golden Globe
Critics Choice
5. Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit
Nominations:
Critics Choice
6. David O. Russell, The Fighter
Nominations:
Golden Globes
7. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
Nominations
Critics Choice
No other directors of note have any major outstanding nominations or wins.
Now, let’s look back at the past directors and what they had won up to this point.
2009 – Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Best Director wins up to now:
Austin
Boston
Chicago
Kansas City Film Critics
Las Vegas Film Critics
Los Angeles Film Critics
New York Film Critics Circle
Online Film Critics
San Francisco Film Critics
SEFCA
Toronto
WAFCA
2008 – Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Best Director wins up to now:
Central Ohio
Chicago
Dallas Fort-Worth
Florida
Los Angeles Film Critics
San Diego Film Critics
2007 – Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Best Director wins up to now:
Central Ohio Film Critics
Chicago Film Critics
Dallas Fort-Worth
Florida Film Critics
Las Vegas Film Critics
New York Film Critics Circle
Los Angeles Film Critics Circle
Online Film Critics
Phoenix
San Francisco
SEFCA
Toronto
Vancouver
2006- Martin Scorsese – The Departed
Best Director wins up to now:
Boston
Chicago
Dallas Fort-Worth
Florida
National Board of Review
New York Film Critics
Online Film Critics
Phoenix
SEFCA
Washington DC Area
2005-SPLIT:
Best Director wins up to now:
Paul Haggis, Crash- Picture
Austin Film Critics
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain – Director
Boston Film Critics
Critics Choice
Dallas Fort-Worth
Florida
Las Vegas
National Board of Review
San Francisco
SEFCA
Vancouver
All things considered, I’m going to make a rough prediction — here is how I think the DGA will go:
David Fincher, The Social Network
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit
The wiggle room for me is True Grit, which could be replaced by David O. Russell for The Fighter.¬† I feel like the three locks are Fincher, Aronofsky and Nolan, with two others. There is a chance that, by some miracle, either Lisa Cholodenko or Debra Granik will make the cut – but, though I hate to say this, they might split their own vote because they’re both female directors.
Charts
DGA | Oscar
2009
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker | Bigelow, Hurt Locker |
Lee Daniels, Precious | Lee Daniels, Precious |
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air | Jason Reitman, Up in the Air |
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds | Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds |
Jim Cameron, Avatar | Jim Cameron, Avatar |
2008
Danny Boyle, Slumdog | Danny Boyle, Slumdog |
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon | Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon |
Gus Van Sant, Milk | Gus Van Sant, Milk |
David Fincher, Benjamin Button | David Fincher, Benjamin Button |
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight | Stephen Daldry, The Reader |
2007
Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country | Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country |
Sean Penn, Into the Wild | Jason Reitman, Juno |
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly | Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly |
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton | Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton |
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood | Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood |
2006
Stephen Frears, The Queen | Stephen Frears, The Queen |
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel | Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel |
Bill Condon, Dreamgirls | Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima |
Faris and Dayton, Little Miss Sunshine | Paul Greengrass, United 93 |
Martin Scorsese, The Departed | Martin Scorsese, The Departed |
2005
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain | Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain |
George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck | George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck |
Paul Haggis, Crash | Paul Haggis, Crash* |
Bennett Miller, Capote | Bennett Miller, Capote |
Steven Spielberg, Munich | Steven Spielberg, Munich |
2004
Alexander Payne for Sideways | Alexander Payne for Sideways |
Martin Scorsese for The Aviator | Martin Scorsese for The Aviator |
Taylor Hackford for Ray | Taylor Hackford for Ray |
Marc Forster for Finding Neverland | Mike Leigh for Vera Drake |
Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby | Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby |
2003
Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation | Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation |
Clint Eastwood, Mystic River | Clint Eastwood, Mystic River |
Peter Jackson, ROTK | Peter Jackson, ROTK* |
Peter Weir, Master and Commander | Peter Weir, Master and Commander |
Gary Ross, Seabiscuit | Fernando Merielles, City of God |
2002
Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York | Martin Scorsese |
Peter Jackson, Lord of the Rings | Pedro Almodovar |
Roman Polanski, The Pianist | Roman Polanski |
Rob Marshall, Chicago | Rob Marshall* |
Steven Daldry, The Hours | Steven Daldry |
2001
Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind | Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind* |
Peter Jackson, Lord of the Rings | Peter Jackson, LOTR |
Christopher Nolan, Memento | Robert Altman, Gosford Park |
Ridley Scott, Black Hawk Down | Ridley Scott, Black Hawk Down |
Baz Luhrmann, Moulin Rouge | David Lynch, Mulholland Drive |
2000
Cameron Crowe, Almost Famous | Stephen Daldry, Billy Elliot |
Ang Lee, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon | Ang Lee, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon |
Ridley Scott, Gladiator | Ridley Scott, Gladiator * |
Steven Soderbergh, Erin Brockovich | Steven Soderbergh, Erin Brockovich |
Steven Soderbergh, Traffic | Steven Soderbergh, Traffic |
1999
Frank Darabont, The Green Mile | Lasse Hallstrom, Cider House Rules |
Spike Jonze, Being John Malkovich | Spike Jonze, Being John Malkovich |
Michael Mann, The Insider | Michael Mann, The Insider |
Sam Mendes, American Beauty | Sam Mendes, American Beauty* |
M. Night Shyamalan, The Sixth Sense | M. Night Shyamalan, The Sixth Sense |
1998
Peter Weir, Truman Show | Peter Weir, Truman Show |
Terrence Malick, Thin Red Line | Terrence Malick, Thin Red Line |
John Madden, Shakes in Love | John Madden, Shakes in Love* |
Steven Spielberg, SPR | Steven Spielberg, SPR |
Roberto Benigni, Life is Beautiful | Roberto Benigni, Life is Beautiful |
1997
James L. Brooks As Good As It Gets | Peter Cattaneo, The Full Monty |
Steven Spielberg Amistad | Atom Egoyan, The Sweet Hereafter |
Gus Van Sant, Good Will Hunting | Gus Van Sant, Good Will Hunting |
James Cameron, Titanic | James Cameron, Titanic* |
Curtis Hanson, L.A. Confidential | Curtis Hanson, L.A. Confidential |
1996
Cameron Crowe, Jerry Maguire | Milos( Forman for The People vs. Larry Flynt |
Joel Coen, Fargo | Joel Coen, Fargo |
Mike Leigh, Secrets & Lies | Mike Leigh, Secrets & Lies |
Anthony Minghella, The English Patient | Anthony Minghella, The English Patient* |
Scott Hicks, Shine | Scott Hicks, Shine |
1995
Mike Figgis for Leaving Las Vegas | Mike Figgis for Leaving Las Vegas |
Mel Gibson for Braveheart | Mel Gibson for Braveheart* |
Ron Howard for Apollo 13 | Chris Noonan for Babe |
Ang Lee for Sense and Sensibility | Tim Robbins for Dead Man Walking |
Michael Radford for Il Postino | Michael Radford for Il Postino |
1994
Mike Newell for Four Weddings and a Funeral | Woody Allen for Bullets Over Broadway |
Frank Darabont for The Shawshank Redemption | Krzysztof Kieslowski for Red |
Robert Redford for Quiz Show | Robert Redford for Quiz Show |
Quentin Tarantino for Pulp Fiction | Quentin Tarantino for Pulp Fiction |
Robert Zemeckis for Forrest Gump | Robert Zemeckis for Forrest Gump* |
1993
Andrew Davis for The Fugitive | Robert Altman for Short Cuts |
Jane Campion for The Piano | Jane Campion for The Piano |
James Ivory for The Remains Of the Day | James Ivory for The Remains Of the Day |
Martin Scorsese for The Age Of Innocence | Jim Sheridan for In the Name Of the Father |
Steven Spielberg for Schindler’s List | Steven Spielberg for Schindler’s List* |
1992
Robert Altman for The Player | Robert Altman for The Player |
Rob Reiner for A Few Good Men | Martin Brest for Scent Of a Woman |
Clint Eastwood for Unforgiven | Clint Eastwood for Unforgiven* |
James Ivory for Howards End | James Ivory for Howards End |
Neil Jordan for The Crying Game | Neil Jordan for The Crying Game |
1991
Barbra Streisand for The Prince Of Tides | John Singleton for Boyz N the Hood |
Oliver Stone for JFK | Oliver Stone for JFK |
Ridley Scott for Thelma & Louise | Ridley Scott for Thelma & Louise |
Barry Levinson for Bugsy | Barry Levinson for Bugsy |
Jonathan Demme for The Silence Of the Lambs | Jonathan Demme for The Silence Of the Lambs* |
1990
Francis Ford Coppola for The Godfather Part III | Francis Ford Coppola for The Godfather Part III |
Kevin Costner for Dances With Wolves | Kevin Costner for Dances With Wolves* |
Barry Levinson for Avalon | Stephen Frears for The Grifters |
Martin Scorsese for GoodFellas | Martin Scorsese for GoodFellas |
Giuseppe Tornatore for Cinema Paradiso | Barbet Schroeder for Reversal Of Fortune |
For the win only
+also won Best Picture
(best picture that didn’t match director)
2009 | Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker | Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker |
2008 | Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire | Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire+ |
2007 | Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country | Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country+ |
2006 | Martin Scorsese, The Departed | Martin Scorsese, The Departed+ |
2005 | Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain | Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain (Crash) |
2004 | Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby | Clint Eastwood, MDB+ |
2003 | Peter Jackson, Return of the King | Peter Jackson, Return of the King+ |
2002 | Rob Marshall, Chicago | Roman Polanski, The Pianist (Chicago) |
2001 | Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind | Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind+ |
2000 | Ang Lee, Crouching Tiger | Steven Soderbergh, Traffic (Gladiator) |
1999 | Sam Mendes, American Beauty | Sam Mendes, American Beauty+ |
1998 | Steven Spielberg, Saving Private Ryan | Steven Spielberg (Shakespeare in Love) |
1997 | Jim Cameron, Titanic | Jim Cameron, Titanic+ |
1996 | Anthony Minghella, English Patient | Anthony Minghella, English Patient+ |
1995 | Ron Howard, Apollo 13 | Mel Gibson, Braveheart+ |
1994 | Robert Zemeckis, Forrest Gump | Robert Zemeckis, Forrest Gump+ |
1993 | Seven Spielberg, Schindler’s List | Steven Spielberg, Schindler’s List+ |
1992 | Clint Eastwood, Unforgiven | Clint Eastwood, Unforgiven+ |
1991 | Jonathan Demme, Silence of the Lambs | Jonathan Demme, Silence of the Lambs + |
1990 | Kevin Costner, Dances with Wolves | Kevin Costner, Dances with Wolves+ |
1989 | Oliver Stone, Born on the Fourth of July | Oliver Stone, Born on the Fourth of July (Driving Miss Daisy – director Beresford not nommed for Oscar or DGA) |
1988 | Barry Levinson, Rain Man | Barry Levinson, Rain Man+ |
1987 | Bernardo Bertolucci, Last Emperor | Bernardo Bertolucci, Last Emperor+ |
1986 | Oliver Stone, Platoon | Oliver Stone, Platoon+ |
1985 | Steven Spielberg, Color Purple | Sidney Pollack, Out of Africa+ |
1984: | Milos Forman, Amadeus | Milos Forman, Amadeus+ |
1983: | James Brooks, Terms of Endearment | James Brooks, Terms of Endearment+ |
1982: | Richard Attenborough, Gandhi | Richard Attenborough, Gandhi+ |
1981: | Warren Beatty, Reds | Warren Beatty, Reds (Chariots of Fire) |
1980: | Robert Redford, Ordinary People | Robert Redford, Ordinary People+ |
1979: | Robert Benton, Kramer Vs. Kramer | Robert Benton, Kramer Vs. Kramer+ |
1978: | Michael Cimino, Deer Hunter | Michael Cimino, Deer Hunter+ |
1977: | Woody Allen, Annie Hall | Woody Allen, Annie Hall+ |
1976: | John Avildson, Rocky | John Avildson, Rocky+ |
1975: | Milos Foreman, One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest | Milos Foreman, One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest+ |
1974: | Frances Coppola, Godfather II | Frances Coppola, Godfather II+ |
1973: | George Roy Hill, The Sting | George Roy Hill+ |
1972: | Frances Coppola, The Godfather | Bob Fosse, Cabaret (Godfather) |
1971: | William Friedkin, The French Connection | William Friedkin, The French Connection+ |
1970: | Franklin J. Schaffner, Patton | Franklin J. Schaffner , Patton+ |
1969: | John Schlesinger, Midnight Cowboy | John Schlesinger, Midnight Cowboy+ |
1968: | Anthony Harvey, Lion in Winter | Carol Reed, Oliver+ |
1967: | Mike Nichols, The Graduate | Mike Nichols, The Graduate (In Heat of the Night) |
1966: | Fred Zinneman, A Man for all Seasons | Fred Zinneman, A Man for all Seasons+ |
1965: | Robert Wise, The Sound of Music | Robert Wise, the Sound of Music+ |
1964: | George Cukor, My Fair Lady | George Cukor, My Fair Lady+ |
1963: | Tony Richardson, Tom Jones | Tony Richardson, Tom Jones+ |
1962: | David Lean, Lawrence of Arabia | David Lean, Lawrence of Arabia+ |
1961: | Jerome Robbins, Robert Wise, West Side Story | Jerome Robbins, Robert Wise, West Side Story+ |
1960: | Billy Wilder, The Apartment | Billy Wilder, The Apartment+ |
1959: | William Wyler, Ben Hur | William Wyler, Ben Hur+ |
1958: | Vincent Minnelli, Gigi | Vincent Minnelli, Gigi+ |
1957: | David Lean, Bridge on the River Kwai | David Lean, Bridge on the River Kwai+ |
1956: | George Stevens, Giant | George Stevens, Giant (Around/World in 80 Days) |
1955: | Delbert Mann, Marty | Delbert Mann, Marty+ |
1954: | Elia Kazan, On the Waterfront | Elia Kazan, On the Waterfront+ |
1953: | Fred Zinnemann, From here to Eternity | Fred Zinnemann, From here to Eternity+ |
1952: | John Ford, The Quiet Man | John Ford, The Quiet Man (Greatest Show on Earth) |
1951: | George Stevens, A Place in the Sun | George Stevens, A Place in the Sun (An American in Paris) |
1950: | Joseph L. Mankiewicz, All About Eve | Joseph L. Mankiewicz, All About Eve+ |
1949: | Robert Rossen, All the King’s Men | Joseph L. Mankiewicz for A Letter To Three Wives (All the King’s Men) |
1948: | Joseph L. Mankiewicz for A Letter To Three Wives | John Huston, Treasure of the Sierra Madre (Hamlet) |
1947 | Elia Kaza for Gentleman’s Agreement | |
1946 | William Wyler for The Best Years of Our Lives | |
1945 | Billy Wilder for The Lost Weekend | |
1944 | Leo McCary for Going My Way | |
1943 | Michael Curtiz for Casablanca | |
1942 | William Wyler for Mrs. Miniver | |
1941 | John Ford for How Green Was My Valley | |
1940 | John Ford for The Grapes of Wrath (Rebecca) | |
1939 | Victor Flemming, Gone with the Wind | |
1938 | Frank Capra, You Can’t Take it With You | |
1937 | Leo McCary, The Awful Truth (The Life of Emile Zola) | |
1936 | Frank Capra, Mr. Deed Goes to Town (The Great Ziegfeld) | |
1935 | John Ford, The Informer (Mutiny on the Bounty) | |
1934 | Frank Capra, It Happened One Night | |
1933 | Frank Lloyd, Calvalcade |