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The Artist Poised to Take Best Picture, Streep Actress?

So, I can’t really let this go by unnoticed.  I just have to say it because no one else really is.  

No one is talking about the possibility, the serious possibility, that The Artist could not only be nominated for Best Picture but could WIN.  The strange thing about The Artist is that it has everything a stealthy Best Picture winner needs — it’s the movie everybody loves and the movie nobody thinks can win.  Sounds a lot like Slumdog Millionaire.

But the difference is that people do think it could win – pretty high profile peeps too – like Entertainment Weekly’s Dave Karger, InContention’s Guy Lodge and Movie City News’ David Poland.  I mentioned this is my State of the Race column, that I’d run into Poland at the Ides of March premiere and he was talking about how The Artist was going to WIN.

Speaking of the Weinstein Co., the pundits all have Meryl Streep in their number one spot to win.  Gold Derby and the Gurus of Gold all have Streep first, followed by Glenn Close, then Viola Davis for The Help trailing third.  I keep thinking it’s Viola Davis all the way but it’s always hard to fight off a wave of consensus.  Except when we remember that Meryl Streep almost always takes the lead early on only to be defeated by another actress.

But if it’s her time to win her third Oscar, it’s her time to win her third Oscar, and Viola Davis will have to wait for her first Oscar.  Ditto Glenn Close.  I’m still thinking Davis until I actually see Streep in the film.  No one has seen her performance yet so predictions right now are just spitting in the wind.

However, we’ve all seen The Artist. It was the movie everyone was talking about in Cannes, then in Telluride and in Toronto. It’s the movie everyone likes. It’s the movie no one will hate. It’s the movie everyone will get.  The trick will be whether its popularity at film festivals will reach a general audience enough for the Academy to go for it. I’m not quite ready to go there just yet.  I do recognize it as a no-brainer for nominations across the board.

Schindler’s List was the last black and white film to win.  The Artist is absolutely brilliant.  I do think it will win several Oscars, though, like maybe Best Actor, costumes, art direction…anything it can win it will win.  But I’m not ready to declare it the winner yet, despite Karger, Lodge and Poland’s assertions.

What do you think, Oscarwatchers?

228 Comments on this Post

  1. I’m seeing it at the NYFF October 14. SOOOOO EXCITED.

  2. I’m seeing it at the NYFF October 14. SOOOOO EXCITED.

  3. Do either Jean Dujardin or Bérénice Bejo speak English? May be tough if they can’t do the rounds and it gets all loaded onto James Cromwell et al.

  4. Do either Jean Dujardin or Bérénice Bejo speak English? May be tough if they can’t do the rounds and it gets all loaded onto James Cromwell et al.

  5. What?

    It’s my impression that every other contributor ranks films in the order they think they are likeliest to be NOMINATED, not to win. It doesn’t make sense the way you are presenting it, there is a clear difference pre and post nominations.

  6. What?

    It’s my impression that every other contributor ranks films in the order they think they are likeliest to be NOMINATED, not to win. It doesn’t make sense the way you are presenting it, there is a clear difference pre and post nominations.

  7. I think The Artist has a tremendous chance at winning, although much as I would put it in the frontrunner position currently, I’m fully prepared for things to change immeasurably in the coming months.

    Regarding Meryl Streep, I think it’d be a great shame for Glenn Close to lose yet another Oscar, and you’re right Sasha, Streep has been the early favourite many times in the past 30-odd years since she won her last Oscar, only to see another actress replace her.

  8. I think The Artist has a tremendous chance at winning, although much as I would put it in the frontrunner position currently, I’m fully prepared for things to change immeasurably in the coming months.

    Regarding Meryl Streep, I think it’d be a great shame for Glenn Close to lose yet another Oscar, and you’re right Sasha, Streep has been the early favourite many times in the past 30-odd years since she won her last Oscar, only to see another actress replace her.

  9. Scott (the other one)

    Sasha — last week you said Glenn Close “can’t lose” …

    Anyway … I haven’t seen The Artist, but I know many people who saw it at TIFF and everyone loves it, so it certainly could be a strong dark horse. But no foreign film has ever won Best Picture. Plus, it is silent. And in black and white. And does not feature a single know personality. Will the famously conservative Academy confer its biggest award on such a film … or when it is nominated for BP (which it will be) will people think that that is enough of an honour, and if the French want to give it 25 Cesar, then let them do so??? Let’s face it, although every year people complain about foreign films not receiving more nominations, the Oscars are in essence the US mainstream film awards. You have to assess the award in that context, not in the context that they are “world film awards”. It would be truly “neat” if the Academy wnet with such an unconventional choice, but I still can’t see it happening. Mind you, when I see The Artist, I may fall under its spell and think that it is indeed the front runner.

    The issue with Streep in the Iron Lady is not whether she will be any good. That is never the issue. Streep is pretty much always good. So I don’t think we have to wait to see how she is in the film. What we have to do is wait for the film that surrounds her, because she may be great but the film could be crap, or could be good but not great. It is the uncertainty about the film itself, not the uncertainty about whether Streep will be excellent, that creates uncertainty about whether she will win the Best Actress Oscar.

    None of us have seen The Iron Lady, but one of the things certainly that may give it power and pull our emotions is that, as I understand it, it focuses on Thatcher’s story around the Falklands crisis, but it situates that within her current situation of living with dementia. If the film were a straighforward biopic I would be dreading the ho-hum cliches of biopics quite a bit, but situating the film in what is likely to be a very moving context of Thatcher as an old, ill lady and focusing on one of the most famous parts of her career may make the film much more effective and moving, and not just a tedious chronological run-through of her entire life, like a History Channel biography.

  10. Scott (the other one)

    Sasha — last week you said Glenn Close “can’t lose” …

    Anyway … I haven’t seen The Artist, but I know many people who saw it at TIFF and everyone loves it, so it certainly could be a strong dark horse. But no foreign film has ever won Best Picture. Plus, it is silent. And in black and white. And does not feature a single know personality. Will the famously conservative Academy confer its biggest award on such a film … or when it is nominated for BP (which it will be) will people think that that is enough of an honour, and if the French want to give it 25 Cesar, then let them do so??? Let’s face it, although every year people complain about foreign films not receiving more nominations, the Oscars are in essence the US mainstream film awards. You have to assess the award in that context, not in the context that they are “world film awards”. It would be truly “neat” if the Academy wnet with such an unconventional choice, but I still can’t see it happening. Mind you, when I see The Artist, I may fall under its spell and think that it is indeed the front runner.

    The issue with Streep in the Iron Lady is not whether she will be any good. That is never the issue. Streep is pretty much always good. So I don’t think we have to wait to see how she is in the film. What we have to do is wait for the film that surrounds her, because she may be great but the film could be crap, or could be good but not great. It is the uncertainty about the film itself, not the uncertainty about whether Streep will be excellent, that creates uncertainty about whether she will win the Best Actress Oscar.

    None of us have seen The Iron Lady, but one of the things certainly that may give it power and pull our emotions is that, as I understand it, it focuses on Thatcher’s story around the Falklands crisis, but it situates that within her current situation of living with dementia. If the film were a straighforward biopic I would be dreading the ho-hum cliches of biopics quite a bit, but situating the film in what is likely to be a very moving context of Thatcher as an old, ill lady and focusing on one of the most famous parts of her career may make the film much more effective and moving, and not just a tedious chronological run-through of her entire life, like a History Channel biography.

  11. I’m reserving judgement until we see The Iron Lady trailer. Come on already!

  12. I’m reserving judgement until we see The Iron Lady trailer. Come on already!

  13. Scott (the other one)

    p.s. I don’t regard British films as foreign films, and I don’t regard Slumdog Millionaire or The Last Emporer as truly being “foreign films”, from the perspective of the Academy anyway. Though I do concede that to some extent those were unusual winners, given their foreign credentials.

  14. Scott (the other one)

    p.s. I don’t regard British films as foreign films, and I don’t regard Slumdog Millionaire or The Last Emporer as truly being “foreign films”, from the perspective of the Academy anyway. Though I do concede that to some extent those were unusual winners, given their foreign credentials.

  15. I think the Box Office will help a bit for the Best Actress Oscar.

  16. I think the Box Office will help a bit for the Best Actress Oscar.

  17. I’m definitely with you on this one. I’ve currently got it at number three in my Picture lineup, but I can easily see it becoming the frontrunner if it hasn’t already. The festivals didn’t turn out a surefire Picture winner as they have in years past, but this is the closest thing we have to such a film in 2011.

  18. I’m definitely with you on this one. I’ve currently got it at number three in my Picture lineup, but I can easily see it becoming the frontrunner if it hasn’t already. The festivals didn’t turn out a surefire Picture winner as they have in years past, but this is the closest thing we have to such a film in 2011.

  19. As I said yesterday, I’m also starting to think that with the Weinsteins in their corner, The Artist could pull off a sweep. It would be the perfect win-win(-win) : the audience wins, because it is a crowdpleaser; the distributor wins, because it is a unique, critically acclaimed crowdpleaser, one they can campaign the hell out of; AND the Academy wins because they award a crowdpleaser that also makes them look edgy (bp to a silent film), so they can please the critics/bloggers AND the audience. Its biggest obstacle will be probably the fact that this year’s bp race is unusually filled with VIABLE contenders that are tearjerkers/crowdpleasers : The Help, Moneyball, The Descendants, probably Extremely Loud and Inredibly Close and War Horse. Bottom line : if the Academy decides to go with their heart (again), they will have options…and The Artist will be probably the smallest one of those options BO-wise. Of course it could surprise The King’s Speech-style BUT for now it seems more likely that the other four top crowdpleaser-contenders will make considerably more money than The Artist.

    Picture, screenplay, actor, supporting actress, costume, art, editing ? I only think it won’t win bd, because a lot of great directors seem to be bringing their A-Game this year…although a lof of great directors brought their A-Game last year, too…

    I’m not so sure about Streep. Her individual work will be Oscar-worthy, we all know that, but will the film work ? The distributor decided to skip Venice AND Toronto AND Telluride AND London (!!!) although it was widely expected to take the opening/closing gala slot in London. Why haven’t they shown it to anybody ESPECIALLY when the same distributor provided plenty of fest-time for their critical flop, W.E. ? What’s the plan ? ‘Yay, we have such a great film that we don’t want anyone to see it ?’ OR is it possible that there is a perfectly logical explanation, one that doesn’t suggest it is a dud ? Maybe it isn’t finished or something ?

  20. As I said yesterday, I’m also starting to think that with the Weinsteins in their corner, The Artist could pull off a sweep. It would be the perfect win-win(-win) : the audience wins, because it is a crowdpleaser; the distributor wins, because it is a unique, critically acclaimed crowdpleaser, one they can campaign the hell out of; AND the Academy wins because they award a crowdpleaser that also makes them look edgy (bp to a silent film), so they can please the critics/bloggers AND the audience. Its biggest obstacle will be probably the fact that this year’s bp race is unusually filled with VIABLE contenders that are tearjerkers/crowdpleasers : The Help, Moneyball, The Descendants, probably Extremely Loud and Inredibly Close and War Horse. Bottom line : if the Academy decides to go with their heart (again), they will have options…and The Artist will be probably the smallest one of those options BO-wise. Of course it could surprise The King’s Speech-style BUT for now it seems more likely that the other four top crowdpleaser-contenders will make considerably more money than The Artist.

    Picture, screenplay, actor, supporting actress, costume, art, editing ? I only think it won’t win bd, because a lot of great directors seem to be bringing their A-Game this year…although a lof of great directors brought their A-Game last year, too…

    I’m not so sure about Streep. Her individual work will be Oscar-worthy, we all know that, but will the film work ? The distributor decided to skip Venice AND Toronto AND Telluride AND London (!!!) although it was widely expected to take the opening/closing gala slot in London. Why haven’t they shown it to anybody ESPECIALLY when the same distributor provided plenty of fest-time for their critical flop, W.E. ? What’s the plan ? ‘Yay, we have such a great film that we don’t want anyone to see it ?’ OR is it possible that there is a perfectly logical explanation, one that doesn’t suggest it is a dud ? Maybe it isn’t finished or something ?

  21. Brainy Pirate

    I’m thinking Close will win on the “overdue” vote combined with the “comeback” vote. What I can’t tell is whether the voters want to reward Streep for her comic successes, or if they’re waiting for her to return to her dramatic roots, as she seems to do with Thatcher.

  22. Brainy Pirate

    I’m thinking Close will win on the “overdue” vote combined with the “comeback” vote. What I can’t tell is whether the voters want to reward Streep for her comic successes, or if they’re waiting for her to return to her dramatic roots, as she seems to do with Thatcher.

  23. “the Oscars are in essence the US mainstream film awards”

    And British.

    I don’t think a foreign language film (or animated film) will ever win Best Picture… but, The Artist is silent, so it just might take the big prize.

  24. “the Oscars are in essence the US mainstream film awards”

    And British.

    I don’t think a foreign language film (or animated film) will ever win Best Picture… but, The Artist is silent, so it just might take the big prize.

  25. Profile photo of Sasha Stone

    Sasha — last week you said Glenn Close “can’t lose” …

    I’ve been pretty consistent on my feeling that Viola Davis would win. If she’s not in the lead category, maybe Close will get in there. I don’t see Streep picking up a third Oscar for this but who knows.

  26. Profile photo of Sasha Stone

    Sasha — last week you said Glenn Close “can’t lose” …

    I’ve been pretty consistent on my feeling that Viola Davis would win. If she’s not in the lead category, maybe Close will get in there. I don’t see Streep picking up a third Oscar for this but who knows.

  27. Does this thing have an American release date, or did I miss it?

  28. Does this thing have an American release date, or did I miss it?

  29. This is typical pre-awards season stuff in regard to Streep. I agree that she’s the default front-runner in any year she has a major role, especially in a drama. That’s fair, considering her body of work. We all know that as soon as each film comes out, and when a few critics circle awards are given out, the band wagon can become and unstoppable train. We’ll just have to see the way the wind blows. I feel the best we can do until probably December is to wait to see which way the wind blows. And of course speculate until we’re blue in the face.

  30. This is typical pre-awards season stuff in regard to Streep. I agree that she’s the default front-runner in any year she has a major role, especially in a drama. That’s fair, considering her body of work. We all know that as soon as each film comes out, and when a few critics circle awards are given out, the band wagon can become and unstoppable train. We’ll just have to see the way the wind blows. I feel the best we can do until probably December is to wait to see which way the wind blows. And of course speculate until we’re blue in the face.

  31. And repeat ourselves. Sorry guys.

  32. And repeat ourselves. Sorry guys.

  33. If The Artist wins Best Picture, then the Oscars may as well shut their doors forever. No American outside of these forums are going to accept a SILENT FREAKING MOVIE as their BP of a particular year. The Oscars’ fall from grace, which started in 2008 with the exclusion of The Dark Knight and Christopher Nolan from award consideration, the abortion that was the 2009 ceremony with what will be the most infamous Brinks job in AMPAS history (Hurt Locker/Bigelow over Avatar/Cameron), and this year’s fawning over The King’s Speech.

    The MTV Movie Awards, the Golden Globes will be better alternatives. It’s bad enough The Kid With a Key Movie, aka Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, is going to take precious nominations away from Super 8 and Bridesmaids. I shudder to think of what this POS, which should stay in Foreign Language Film only, actually wins the BP prize. If you’re a movie fan, you should root against this to happen.

  34. If The Artist wins Best Picture, then the Oscars may as well shut their doors forever. No American outside of these forums are going to accept a SILENT FREAKING MOVIE as their BP of a particular year. The Oscars’ fall from grace, which started in 2008 with the exclusion of The Dark Knight and Christopher Nolan from award consideration, the abortion that was the 2009 ceremony with what will be the most infamous Brinks job in AMPAS history (Hurt Locker/Bigelow over Avatar/Cameron), and this year’s fawning over The King’s Speech.

    The MTV Movie Awards, the Golden Globes will be better alternatives. It’s bad enough The Kid With a Key Movie, aka Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, is going to take precious nominations away from Super 8 and Bridesmaids. I shudder to think of what this POS, which should stay in Foreign Language Film only, actually wins the BP prize. If you’re a movie fan, you should root against this to happen.

  35. @PaulH: Please tell me that your comment is sarcasm. The MTV Movie Awards are better than the Oscars? Seriously?

  36. @PaulH: Please tell me that your comment is sarcasm. The MTV Movie Awards are better than the Oscars? Seriously?

  37. RIcky Schweitzer

    I haven’t seen The Artist and I consider myself to be open-minded and optimistic when it comes to the Academy… but there is just no way that a silent film is going to win Best Picture. A black and white film could. A silent film cannot. Wall-E couldn’t even snag a BP NOMINATION and that was part silent film. With the widespread love for the film, I’m sure it’ll get the nom… but the win… pretty much impossible.

    Anyone care to figure out what the last silent film to win BP was?

  38. RIcky Schweitzer

    I haven’t seen The Artist and I consider myself to be open-minded and optimistic when it comes to the Academy… but there is just no way that a silent film is going to win Best Picture. A black and white film could. A silent film cannot. Wall-E couldn’t even snag a BP NOMINATION and that was part silent film. With the widespread love for the film, I’m sure it’ll get the nom… but the win… pretty much impossible.

    Anyone care to figure out what the last silent film to win BP was?

  39. seanflynn

    Sunrise and Wings won the first best picture awards (two separate categories) the first year – 1927/28.

    The last silent film to win in any other category (other than perhaps short or doc) was The Red Balloon for writing sometime in the late 1950s.

    Back to Sasha’s post:

    I’ve thought The Artist is the favorite among films seen so far for some time, and my impression within the industry is that a lot of people think it is far from a dark horse, but a strong contender, for all the reasons you cited. (I haven’t seen it myself – but its inclusion in the tough-critic selection panel NYFF reinforces that idea).

    It will need to catch on with the public, but if it does, I can easily ee it winning. The rest of the year honestly looks incredibly boring to me (that includes J Edgar, Warhorse, the Daldry et al).

  40. seanflynn

    Sunrise and Wings won the first best picture awards (two separate categories) the first year – 1927/28.

    The last silent film to win in any other category (other than perhaps short or doc) was The Red Balloon for writing sometime in the late 1950s.

    Back to Sasha’s post:

    I’ve thought The Artist is the favorite among films seen so far for some time, and my impression within the industry is that a lot of people think it is far from a dark horse, but a strong contender, for all the reasons you cited. (I haven’t seen it myself – but its inclusion in the tough-critic selection panel NYFF reinforces that idea).

    It will need to catch on with the public, but if it does, I can easily ee it winning. The rest of the year honestly looks incredibly boring to me (that includes J Edgar, Warhorse, the Daldry et al).

  41. As good as Viola Davis was in The Help, I just don’t see her winning the Oscar. Sorry, not gonna happen.

  42. As good as Viola Davis was in The Help, I just don’t see her winning the Oscar. Sorry, not gonna happen.

  43. seanflynn

    M1

    Paulhan is deadly serious. He has for years filled Goldderby with sight unseen attacks on non-fanboy studio hits that have competed for Oscars. He has hated The Artist since Cannes. Needless to say, he hasn’t seen it.

  44. seanflynn

    M1

    Paulhan is deadly serious. He has for years filled Goldderby with sight unseen attacks on non-fanboy studio hits that have competed for Oscars. He has hated The Artist since Cannes. Needless to say, he hasn’t seen it.

  45. seanflynn

    On its being silent – to me, that (and its being black and white and French) are all elements that help, not hurt, its chances. “Something different” with “heart” is one of the best routes to winning BP – see under Slumdog Millionaire and to some extent King’s Speech (which was indeed considered something different to Academy members).

    It’s why Midnight in Paris might still compete to win – these days, members consider it different as well.

    Obviously, it’s very early, and many competitors needs to be seen, so there’s a lot of mystery. But The Artist has clear elements going in its favor. (Weinstein isn’t one of them one way or the other – they only win BP when they have a film someone else would have won with, as was the case last year. They aren’t bad to have in one’s corner, and help sometimes get nominations, but they don’t boost a longshot.)

  46. seanflynn

    On its being silent – to me, that (and its being black and white and French) are all elements that help, not hurt, its chances. “Something different” with “heart” is one of the best routes to winning BP – see under Slumdog Millionaire and to some extent King’s Speech (which was indeed considered something different to Academy members).

    It’s why Midnight in Paris might still compete to win – these days, members consider it different as well.

    Obviously, it’s very early, and many competitors needs to be seen, so there’s a lot of mystery. But The Artist has clear elements going in its favor. (Weinstein isn’t one of them one way or the other – they only win BP when they have a film someone else would have won with, as was the case last year. They aren’t bad to have in one’s corner, and help sometimes get nominations, but they don’t boost a longshot.)

  47. Poor Meryl, she will never enjoy a coming from behind win. Always the favorite and having to live up to such high expectations.

  48. Poor Meryl, she will never enjoy a coming from behind win. Always the favorite and having to live up to such high expectations.

  49. Paul H.

    What does POS mean???

    Thanks

  50. Paul H.

    What does POS mean???

    Thanks

  51. seanflynn

    Mark –
    piece of (you can guess the rest).

  52. seanflynn

    Mark –
    piece of (you can guess the rest).

  53. Berenice Bejo.

    Will get nominated.

  54. Berenice Bejo.

    Will get nominated.

  55. Who is the frontrunner to win for, for Best Actor?

  56. Who is the frontrunner to win for, for Best Actor?

  57. Robert A.

    I pretty much agree with what a lot of people have already said. I also think The Artist has a good chance of winning Best Picture. I’m hesitant to say that with too much conviction given it’s only late September, but a lot of early indicators are in place–a hit at critical film festivals; growing buzz; the potential “love” factor; Harvey as its backer; subject matter that is stirring and moving and that Academy members can “relate” to.

    I realize the Academy doesn’t usually go for non-Brit foreign films as BP. But that line of thinking only gets you so far. The Academy never voted a fantasy movie for Best Picture…until they did with Return of the King. They never voted a horror/thriller as Best Picture…until they did with Silence of the Lambs. I remember people arguing in 2007 that No Country for Old Men just could not take Best Picture because the Academy would never vote en masse for a movie with such a dark and nihilistic vision. In 2009 many people insisted to the end that The Hurt Locker, with its relatively low box-office, just could not win Best Picture because of that. And yet we all know how those turned out.

    And how do we know the Academy would never vote a silent movie for BP? It’s not like the Academy has had a lot of chances to do so over the past 80 years. Besides, I think because The Artist is a silent movie, that’s going to actually help it seem less “foreign.” No pesky subtitles to have to read, you know. I suppose if it completely tanks at the box-office, that could take some of the wind out of its sails, but for now I think it’s a lock for a BP nomination and one of maybe 2-3 films that could actually win the whole thing.

  58. Robert A.

    I pretty much agree with what a lot of people have already said. I also think The Artist has a good chance of winning Best Picture. I’m hesitant to say that with too much conviction given it’s only late September, but a lot of early indicators are in place–a hit at critical film festivals; growing buzz; the potential “love” factor; Harvey as its backer; subject matter that is stirring and moving and that Academy members can “relate” to.

    I realize the Academy doesn’t usually go for non-Brit foreign films as BP. But that line of thinking only gets you so far. The Academy never voted a fantasy movie for Best Picture…until they did with Return of the King. They never voted a horror/thriller as Best Picture…until they did with Silence of the Lambs. I remember people arguing in 2007 that No Country for Old Men just could not take Best Picture because the Academy would never vote en masse for a movie with such a dark and nihilistic vision. In 2009 many people insisted to the end that The Hurt Locker, with its relatively low box-office, just could not win Best Picture because of that. And yet we all know how those turned out.

    And how do we know the Academy would never vote a silent movie for BP? It’s not like the Academy has had a lot of chances to do so over the past 80 years. Besides, I think because The Artist is a silent movie, that’s going to actually help it seem less “foreign.” No pesky subtitles to have to read, you know. I suppose if it completely tanks at the box-office, that could take some of the wind out of its sails, but for now I think it’s a lock for a BP nomination and one of maybe 2-3 films that could actually win the whole thing.

  59. I had a bad day today and was seriously out of line with my POS remark. I apologize to the forum as a whole.

    But I cannot fathom a film like The Artist being considered, seriously considered for any major Oscar noms aside from Foreign Language film. It’s an indictment, I daresay, for just how brutal 2011 has been for films that strike a balance between the masses and the critics. This Oscar race looks to be an arthouse-a-palooza event which millions may be tuning out. In any other year than this, The Artist is an afterthought. It’s not even a blip on the radar.

    Once the MTVMA’s get the Twilight virus out of their system in 2 years (please, Hunger Games, do the deed next year or in ’13), they’ll be more watchable. The Globes got it right last year with The Social Network. I stand by what I said about the train-wreck the Oscars have become (2008-2010). The broadcast ratings for this year lost anywhere from 10-13% of its 2009 audience, partly from the show being so bad, partly from rebellion over its BP selection the prior year. I should be a bit more diplomatic and will strive to be in the future.

  60. I had a bad day today and was seriously out of line with my POS remark. I apologize to the forum as a whole.

    But I cannot fathom a film like The Artist being considered, seriously considered for any major Oscar noms aside from Foreign Language film. It’s an indictment, I daresay, for just how brutal 2011 has been for films that strike a balance between the masses and the critics. This Oscar race looks to be an arthouse-a-palooza event which millions may be tuning out. In any other year than this, The Artist is an afterthought. It’s not even a blip on the radar.

    Once the MTVMA’s get the Twilight virus out of their system in 2 years (please, Hunger Games, do the deed next year or in ’13), they’ll be more watchable. The Globes got it right last year with The Social Network. I stand by what I said about the train-wreck the Oscars have become (2008-2010). The broadcast ratings for this year lost anywhere from 10-13% of its 2009 audience, partly from the show being so bad, partly from rebellion over its BP selection the prior year. I should be a bit more diplomatic and will strive to be in the future.

  61. seanflynn

    The Artist would not be eligible for FL film. To be so, a film needs to be in a silent language. It, of course, is not.

    And if it wins BP, in part it will be because the membership of the Academy would be making a comment about how mediocre they think mainstream studio filmmaking is, a point you seem to agree with (in saying it would be a comment on how poor a year it has been).

    That said, if it wins, it will be because they love it, not mainly negative reasons.

  62. seanflynn

    The Artist would not be eligible for FL film. To be so, a film needs to be in a silent language. It, of course, is not.

    And if it wins BP, in part it will be because the membership of the Academy would be making a comment about how mediocre they think mainstream studio filmmaking is, a point you seem to agree with (in saying it would be a comment on how poor a year it has been).

    That said, if it wins, it will be because they love it, not mainly negative reasons.

  63. seanflynn

    That should of course have been “needs to be in a foreign language.”
    As a silent film (with English intertitles), The Artist is no such thing.

  64. seanflynn

    That should of course have been “needs to be in a foreign language.”
    As a silent film (with English intertitles), The Artist is no such thing.

  65. Robert A.

    “The broadcast ratings for this year lost anywhere from 10-13% of its 2009 audience, partly from the show being so bad, partly from rebellion over its BP selection the prior year.”

    I very much doubt the reason the February 2011 Oscar show lost 10% of its audience from 2010 was because there was some mass protest against “The Hurt Locker” winning the year before. You fail to mention that, while the February 2011 ratings were down from the February 2010 ratings, the 2011 ratings were still higher than ratings for the 2008 and 2009 Oscar shows. More likely we saw a tick upward in viewership in Feb. 2010 because that blue elephant “Avatar” was nominated, and this year, lacking a blue elephant, viewership returned to its more “normal” ratings.

  66. Robert A.

    “The broadcast ratings for this year lost anywhere from 10-13% of its 2009 audience, partly from the show being so bad, partly from rebellion over its BP selection the prior year.”

    I very much doubt the reason the February 2011 Oscar show lost 10% of its audience from 2010 was because there was some mass protest against “The Hurt Locker” winning the year before. You fail to mention that, while the February 2011 ratings were down from the February 2010 ratings, the 2011 ratings were still higher than ratings for the 2008 and 2009 Oscar shows. More likely we saw a tick upward in viewership in Feb. 2010 because that blue elephant “Avatar” was nominated, and this year, lacking a blue elephant, viewership returned to its more “normal” ratings.

  67. Dear Paul,

    Pocahontas Deluxe In Space did not deserve to win Best Picture over The Hurt Locker. It was more popular, but it was not the best film of the year. If you like the MTV movie awards, great, go watch them. I, personally, am very open to having as many awards shows as people want. The MTV movie awards reward popularity. The Academy Awards reward artistic merit. Artistic merit is often at odds with popularity, because art challenges people, and most folks don’t go to the movies to be challenged. They go to be entertained. There’s nothing wrong with that, but there’s also no need to vituperate an awards show for doing exactly what it’s supposed to be doing.

  68. Dear Paul,

    Pocahontas Deluxe In Space did not deserve to win Best Picture over The Hurt Locker. It was more popular, but it was not the best film of the year. If you like the MTV movie awards, great, go watch them. I, personally, am very open to having as many awards shows as people want. The MTV movie awards reward popularity. The Academy Awards reward artistic merit. Artistic merit is often at odds with popularity, because art challenges people, and most folks don’t go to the movies to be challenged. They go to be entertained. There’s nothing wrong with that, but there’s also no need to vituperate an awards show for doing exactly what it’s supposed to be doing.

  69. I liked the film a lot and wouldn’t be upset if it won best picture. And though it was made in France there is no language barrier for an American audience. I hope it catches on, whether or not it wins awards because it’s a pure delight.

  70. I liked the film a lot and wouldn’t be upset if it won best picture. And though it was made in France there is no language barrier for an American audience. I hope it catches on, whether or not it wins awards because it’s a pure delight.

  71. I loved Viola Davis in “The Help”, but not as BA … she is supporting to whole ensemble of excellent performances… she really needs to in the Supporting category

  72. I loved Viola Davis in “The Help”, but not as BA … she is supporting to whole ensemble of excellent performances… she really needs to in the Supporting category

  73. seanflynn

    The Artist actually was made in Los Angeles, not France.

  74. seanflynn

    The Artist actually was made in Los Angeles, not France.

  75. is it viola davis’s choice whether she’s in the lead category or not? because i thought voters choose what category the person is in. for the oscars anyway

  76. is it viola davis’s choice whether she’s in the lead category or not? because i thought voters choose what category the person is in. for the oscars anyway

  77. seanflynn

    It’s not her choice, but she will likely be consulted about where she is placed for SAG and the GGs (which accept what they are presented). The acting branch makes it own choice.

    The virtually 100% belief within the industry is that the campaign for her will be for lead.

  78. seanflynn

    It’s not her choice, but she will likely be consulted about where she is placed for SAG and the GGs (which accept what they are presented). The acting branch makes it own choice.

    The virtually 100% belief within the industry is that the campaign for her will be for lead.

  79. mdb

    “The MTV movie awards reward popularity. The Academy Awards reward artistic merit.”

    As much as I would LOVE to agree, I just can’t. IMO, the Academy Awards are just as much about popularity as they are about artistic merit. It’s 50/50 at least. If they were all about artistic merit, Ellen Burstyn would have won over Julia Roberts, The Social Network over The King’s Speech etc., the list is endless. Basically they award the most popular contenders with SOME artistic merit and NOT the most artistic contenders with some popularity. Sure, there are exceptions…but not many. The most artistic AND brilliant contenders rarely get even the nomination, let alone a win.
    If you want awards all about artistic merit, check out the European festivals, now they rarely care about popularity. Emphasis on ‘rarely’ because sometimes, they clearly do, when what gives, superstars get their acting awards and films like ‘The Da Vinci Code’ their opening gala slots…

  80. mdb

    “The MTV movie awards reward popularity. The Academy Awards reward artistic merit.”

    As much as I would LOVE to agree, I just can’t. IMO, the Academy Awards are just as much about popularity as they are about artistic merit. It’s 50/50 at least. If they were all about artistic merit, Ellen Burstyn would have won over Julia Roberts, The Social Network over The King’s Speech etc., the list is endless. Basically they award the most popular contenders with SOME artistic merit and NOT the most artistic contenders with some popularity. Sure, there are exceptions…but not many. The most artistic AND brilliant contenders rarely get even the nomination, let alone a win.
    If you want awards all about artistic merit, check out the European festivals, now they rarely care about popularity. Emphasis on ‘rarely’ because sometimes, they clearly do, when what gives, superstars get their acting awards and films like ‘The Da Vinci Code’ their opening gala slots…

  81. Pierre de Plume

    Sure The Artist could win — it’s not a typical silent film, as others have pointed out. If its artistry is matched by heart-tugging, it’s a contender and yet another precedent-setter. Still too early to tell. I still think The Help is a threat because it’s popular and fits into a narrative that the Academy seems poised for. This also applies to Davis, who I think will go lead because it also fits a narrative. She’s the one to beat, though if the Michelle Williams movie does well and the stars align, she could be more of a contender than Streep.

  82. Pierre de Plume

    Sure The Artist could win — it’s not a typical silent film, as others have pointed out. If its artistry is matched by heart-tugging, it’s a contender and yet another precedent-setter. Still too early to tell. I still think The Help is a threat because it’s popular and fits into a narrative that the Academy seems poised for. This also applies to Davis, who I think will go lead because it also fits a narrative. She’s the one to beat, though if the Michelle Williams movie does well and the stars align, she could be more of a contender than Streep.

  83. The Artist?

    Never. NEVER.

  84. The Artist?

    Never. NEVER.

  85. Actually I do believe that VIOLA DAVIS wants an Oscar and will go supporting.

  86. Actually I do believe that VIOLA DAVIS wants an Oscar and will go supporting.

  87. Bob Burns

    Reading Karger’s predictions I feel like Ebeneezer shrinking from the third ghost.

  88. Bob Burns

    Reading Karger’s predictions I feel like Ebeneezer shrinking from the third ghost.

  89. Meryl’s name is likely to connect with the big “O” word. Just look at 16 nominations.
    And this time, she hast the most baitiest role she has played since Sophie.
    Although all expect her to fail, because of the director. But the scrip is written by Abi Morgan, who is already considered to be nominated for “Shame”.
    Not that it will grant more success, but maybe surprise.
    All what we have seen of TIL is still a TEASER trailer, and teasers can be tricky.
    Although I doubt Meryl to win her third for this still, I lmao if she really shines for it in the end instead of the predicted fail.
    I’d love to see Glenn Close win, but her movie is not reviewed that good so far and she’s not a golden Academy girl like Meryl, who can have mixed reviews but still can go in easily. I hope she will anyway and the media would love a showdown beteween her and Meryl.
    Viola Davis would have a hard time in lead, I’m not sold in Mara yet and Olsen might be critic’s darling like Carey Mulligan in 2009, but that’s it then.
    The dark horse could be Michelle Williams, she really looks more convincing every day.
    But the race is still VERY wide open.

  90. Meryl’s name is likely to connect with the big “O” word. Just look at 16 nominations.
    And this time, she hast the most baitiest role she has played since Sophie.
    Although all expect her to fail, because of the director. But the scrip is written by Abi Morgan, who is already considered to be nominated for “Shame”.
    Not that it will grant more success, but maybe surprise.
    All what we have seen of TIL is still a TEASER trailer, and teasers can be tricky.
    Although I doubt Meryl to win her third for this still, I lmao if she really shines for it in the end instead of the predicted fail.
    I’d love to see Glenn Close win, but her movie is not reviewed that good so far and she’s not a golden Academy girl like Meryl, who can have mixed reviews but still can go in easily. I hope she will anyway and the media would love a showdown beteween her and Meryl.
    Viola Davis would have a hard time in lead, I’m not sold in Mara yet and Olsen might be critic’s darling like Carey Mulligan in 2009, but that’s it then.
    The dark horse could be Michelle Williams, she really looks more convincing every day.
    But the race is still VERY wide open.

  91. I think Davis will be in supporting and The Artist is a hard-sell for general audiences. A nomination, maybe, but I don’t think it can win–especially with french actors and not American ones.

  92. I think Davis will be in supporting and The Artist is a hard-sell for general audiences. A nomination, maybe, but I don’t think it can win–especially with french actors and not American ones.

  93. Tero Heikkinen

    There are quite a few American actors in The Artist, or am I mistaken?

  94. Tero Heikkinen

    There are quite a few American actors in The Artist, or am I mistaken?

  95. “It’s the movie everyone likes. It’s the movie no one will hate.”
    –>Bang on.
    Let’s also remember that THE ARTIST is the perfect definition of a “movie lovers’ movie” I’d say this film is easily the dark horse of the race.

  96. “It’s the movie everyone likes. It’s the movie no one will hate.”
    –>Bang on.
    Let’s also remember that THE ARTIST is the perfect definition of a “movie lovers’ movie” I’d say this film is easily the dark horse of the race.

  97. I attended a screening of THE ARTIST at the Toronto Film Festival and though the crowd really liked it, it was nowhere near the exuberance of past pictures like THE KING’S SPEECH or SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE. I was expecting the film to walk away from the fest with the sort of buzz of those aforementioned pics but it really didn’t. I don’t think it’ll have enough to take it all the way – enough for a nomination but not enough for a victory, despite the Weinsteins behind it.

    Also, I might be the only one saying this, but I wasn’t blown away by it. It’s a well-done film and enjoyable but the story is pretty standard (rise and fall of a silent screen star). The acting is good but I would have loved for the filmmakers to play a little more with the silent B&W conventions. What was the film trying to say exactly? But this is a debate for another time…

  98. I attended a screening of THE ARTIST at the Toronto Film Festival and though the crowd really liked it, it was nowhere near the exuberance of past pictures like THE KING’S SPEECH or SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE. I was expecting the film to walk away from the fest with the sort of buzz of those aforementioned pics but it really didn’t. I don’t think it’ll have enough to take it all the way – enough for a nomination but not enough for a victory, despite the Weinsteins behind it.

    Also, I might be the only one saying this, but I wasn’t blown away by it. It’s a well-done film and enjoyable but the story is pretty standard (rise and fall of a silent screen star). The acting is good but I would have loved for the filmmakers to play a little more with the silent B&W conventions. What was the film trying to say exactly? But this is a debate for another time…

  99. seanflynn

    Hamlet –
    Thanks for your Toronto reaction – I’ve been waiting for someone who attended its screening as well as TKS and SM to make the comparison. My sense was that The Artist and The Descendants both failed to have the enthusiasm those two BP winners did.

    Tero –
    Yes, The Artist has well-known American actors – John Goodman (there has been a suggestion that he might be a supporting actor nominee) and John Cromwell for starters.

    Sonja –
    I don’t get the notion that this is Streep’s baitiest role since SC. I can think of a dozen since then that were. Margaret Thatcher is not some sort of iconic figure with Academy members, she is unpopular with many who have an opinion about her, but she isn’t remotely a villain like Idi Amin for example. The whole film has a “so what?” feel to it to me. Without Streep, I doubt it would have been made, at least as a theatrical film – and films with baity roles tend to get made if they are so sure-fire.

  100. seanflynn

    Hamlet –
    Thanks for your Toronto reaction – I’ve been waiting for someone who attended its screening as well as TKS and SM to make the comparison. My sense was that The Artist and The Descendants both failed to have the enthusiasm those two BP winners did.

    Tero –
    Yes, The Artist has well-known American actors – John Goodman (there has been a suggestion that he might be a supporting actor nominee) and John Cromwell for starters.

    Sonja –
    I don’t get the notion that this is Streep’s baitiest role since SC. I can think of a dozen since then that were. Margaret Thatcher is not some sort of iconic figure with Academy members, she is unpopular with many who have an opinion about her, but she isn’t remotely a villain like Idi Amin for example. The whole film has a “so what?” feel to it to me. Without Streep, I doubt it would have been made, at least as a theatrical film – and films with baity roles tend to get made if they are so sure-fire.

  101. Suffice to say none of us will be attending any of Paul’s Oscar parties.

  102. Suffice to say none of us will be attending any of Paul’s Oscar parties.

  103. “My sense was that The Artist and The Descendants both failed to have the enthusiasm those two BP winners did.”

    Descendants got a BOOMING reception at TIFF: Standing ovations after the picture and after the Q&A. I found The Artist to be very well received as well (maye we attended different screenings?), but I didn’t catch Slumdog or Speech at the fest, so I appreciate the comparisons.

  104. “My sense was that The Artist and The Descendants both failed to have the enthusiasm those two BP winners did.”

    Descendants got a BOOMING reception at TIFF: Standing ovations after the picture and after the Q&A. I found The Artist to be very well received as well (maye we attended different screenings?), but I didn’t catch Slumdog or Speech at the fest, so I appreciate the comparisons.

  105. seanflynn

    It’s curious though that The Descendants didn’t rank in the top three for people’s choice – usually a gala/special screening that is a top Oscar candidate that was well received is a strong contender – it hints either that there was some lackluster response as well, competitors stuffed the ballot box negatively or that the festival – which can count the votes however it chooses to – decided they prefer to favor three less known films.

  106. seanflynn

    It’s curious though that The Descendants didn’t rank in the top three for people’s choice – usually a gala/special screening that is a top Oscar candidate that was well received is a strong contender – it hints either that there was some lackluster response as well, competitors stuffed the ballot box negatively or that the festival – which can count the votes however it chooses to – decided they prefer to favor three less known films.

  107. Gentle Benj

    I’ve been saying it. THE ARTIST is the frontrunner for Picture, Directing and Leading Actor.

  108. Gentle Benj

    I’ve been saying it. THE ARTIST is the frontrunner for Picture, Directing and Leading Actor.

  109. I’ve been saying it Time Ago. THE ARTIST is the frontrunner for Picture, Directing and Leading Actor.

  110. I’ve been saying it Time Ago. THE ARTIST is the frontrunner for Picture, Directing and Leading Actor.

  111. Scott (the other one)

    Zooey says:
    September 30, 2011 at 2:57 am
    Actually I do believe that VIOLA DAVIS wants an Oscar and will go supporting.

    True true true. If she wants the Oscar, then she should run for supporting, and she can clear a space on her mantlepiece right now. She can then put the Oscar next to her Tony.

    If she wants the prestige of a lead nomination, that is fine, but she won’t win.

    I am 100% certain of this and I am sure to be right, because I was 100% certain that The Social Network would win Best Picture.

    Based on not having seen a lot of the pics that are front runners yet, I predict, based solely on buzz and what I have read, that BP will be The Descendants.

  112. Scott (the other one)

    Zooey says:
    September 30, 2011 at 2:57 am
    Actually I do believe that VIOLA DAVIS wants an Oscar and will go supporting.

    True true true. If she wants the Oscar, then she should run for supporting, and she can clear a space on her mantlepiece right now. She can then put the Oscar next to her Tony.

    If she wants the prestige of a lead nomination, that is fine, but she won’t win.

    I am 100% certain of this and I am sure to be right, because I was 100% certain that The Social Network would win Best Picture.

    Based on not having seen a lot of the pics that are front runners yet, I predict, based solely on buzz and what I have read, that BP will be The Descendants.

  113. Was that Asta I saw in the trailer?

  114. Was that Asta I saw in the trailer?

  115. The Artist may face a strong campaigning problem as long as Dujardin doesn’t speak good english.

    But maybe Harvey is having taking english lessons. Cotillard’s english is much better now than 4 years ago.

  116. The Artist may face a strong campaigning problem as long as Dujardin doesn’t speak good english.

    But maybe Harvey is having taking english lessons. Cotillard’s english is much better now than 4 years ago.

  117. But maybe Harvey is having Dujardin taking english lessons. Cotillard’s english is much better now than 4 years ago.

  118. But maybe Harvey is having Dujardin taking english lessons. Cotillard’s english is much better now than 4 years ago.

  119. seanflynn

    Am I the only one who sees the irony of the idea of a non-English speaking actor being hurt in an Oscar race playing the role of a non-English speaking actor whose career is hurt by the coming of sound?

    His not speaking English in this case might actually be a plus for him.

    In any event, the only category in which that would be a problem would be best actor. It would have none for best picture (the director likely speaks fluent English).

  120. seanflynn

    Am I the only one who sees the irony of the idea of a non-English speaking actor being hurt in an Oscar race playing the role of a non-English speaking actor whose career is hurt by the coming of sound?

    His not speaking English in this case might actually be a plus for him.

    In any event, the only category in which that would be a problem would be best actor. It would have none for best picture (the director likely speaks fluent English).

  121. From all the movie blogs, etc I read, it does appear that a consensus is building around Streep to win Best Actress Oscar this year. It could finally be her year, as simple as that!

  122. From all the movie blogs, etc I read, it does appear that a consensus is building around Streep to win Best Actress Oscar this year. It could finally be her year, as simple as that!

  123. Profile photo of Sasha Stone

    From all the movie blogs, etc I read, it does appear that a consensus is building around Streep to win Best Actress Oscar this year. It could finally be her year, as simple as that!

    But no one’s seen it yet….

  124. Profile photo of Sasha Stone

    From all the movie blogs, etc I read, it does appear that a consensus is building around Streep to win Best Actress Oscar this year. It could finally be her year, as simple as that!

    But no one’s seen it yet….

  125. “screening of THE ARTIST at the Toronto Film Festival and though the crowd really liked it, it was nowhere near the exuberance of past pictures like THE KING’S SPEECH or SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE”

    What was mistaken for audience exuberance for either of these (TKS and SM) was likely just gas from bad souvlakis devoured in line prior to the show. I would hate that The Artist gets tied to the same balloon as those two panderers.

  126. “screening of THE ARTIST at the Toronto Film Festival and though the crowd really liked it, it was nowhere near the exuberance of past pictures like THE KING’S SPEECH or SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE”

    What was mistaken for audience exuberance for either of these (TKS and SM) was likely just gas from bad souvlakis devoured in line prior to the show. I would hate that The Artist gets tied to the same balloon as those two panderers.

  127. I absolutely LOVED everything about The Artist and I would be ecstatic if it won Best Picture. It’s beautiful. And I wouldn’t even trip out of Jean won Best Actor over Michael Fassbender (Shame)…. I love it that much!

  128. I absolutely LOVED everything about The Artist and I would be ecstatic if it won Best Picture. It’s beautiful. And I wouldn’t even trip out of Jean won Best Actor over Michael Fassbender (Shame)…. I love it that much!

  129. LOVED “The Artist”. Saw it at Montreal
    , and reviewed for Awardsdaily(check back pages. It’s there) And audiences in French speaking Montreal, mais oui, just LOVED it, but looking back over the history of Oscar, no foreign film has ever won Best Picture. And this is a French made film.

    And Jean Dujardin’s lack of English speaking isn’t a problem for me, because I speak French and regularly interview French actors on my show and let them speak in their own beautiful language. I love it. My viewers love it, but then…I’m not Good Morning, America!

    It’ll get SLEWS of nominations, but I still think it’s going to just soften up the plate(baseball analogy misused?) for “Midnight in Paris.”

    If the big films keep falling by the wayside…”Extremely Loud…” too soon? Too painful?
    “Ides of March” too been there, seen that?

    And “The Artist”s biggest failing(Oscar wise) is that it IS silent. Will the Writer’s Branches support that? Or will they go with a film with WORDS? AND it’s French, French, French.

    So is “MIP” but it’s WOODY.

    Meanwhile, why haven’t we seen or heard anything about “The Iron Lady”? Is it because it’s ONLY a dementia/alzheimers movie? I’m guessing that’s it. And while that may play well with the Actor’s Branch in terms of something they can ALLLLL relate to. And Degree of Difficulty, etc. etc. they don’t REWARD Alzheimer’s portrayals. They nominate them(Judi Dench in “Iris”, and Jule Christie’s “Away From Her.”) BUT THEY DON’T WIN.

    And can Phyllida direct a serious Alzheimer’s movie? THAT’S the question.

    And the word on “Albert Nobbs” is very shakey, indeed. VERY. Glenn although respected…well…respect MIGHT get you a nomination, but…she’s not winning for this everyone says. She’ll be lucky to get nominated.

    And then there’s the magnificent Rachel Weisz in “Deep Blue Sea”. Now THAT’S a brilliant tour-de-force to be reckoned with, awards-wise. And of course, there’s lovely Michelle as MM. We’ll all see that at the NYFF NEXT week can’t wait.

  130. LOVED “The Artist”. Saw it at Montreal
    , and reviewed for Awardsdaily(check back pages. It’s there) And audiences in French speaking Montreal, mais oui, just LOVED it, but looking back over the history of Oscar, no foreign film has ever won Best Picture. And this is a French made film.

    And Jean Dujardin’s lack of English speaking isn’t a problem for me, because I speak French and regularly interview French actors on my show and let them speak in their own beautiful language. I love it. My viewers love it, but then…I’m not Good Morning, America!

    It’ll get SLEWS of nominations, but I still think it’s going to just soften up the plate(baseball analogy misused?) for “Midnight in Paris.”

    If the big films keep falling by the wayside…”Extremely Loud…” too soon? Too painful?
    “Ides of March” too been there, seen that?

    And “The Artist”s biggest failing(Oscar wise) is that it IS silent. Will the Writer’s Branches support that? Or will they go with a film with WORDS? AND it’s French, French, French.

    So is “MIP” but it’s WOODY.

    Meanwhile, why haven’t we seen or heard anything about “The Iron Lady”? Is it because it’s ONLY a dementia/alzheimers movie? I’m guessing that’s it. And while that may play well with the Actor’s Branch in terms of something they can ALLLLL relate to. And Degree of Difficulty, etc. etc. they don’t REWARD Alzheimer’s portrayals. They nominate them(Judi Dench in “Iris”, and Jule Christie’s “Away From Her.”) BUT THEY DON’T WIN.

    And can Phyllida direct a serious Alzheimer’s movie? THAT’S the question.

    And the word on “Albert Nobbs” is very shakey, indeed. VERY. Glenn although respected…well…respect MIGHT get you a nomination, but…she’s not winning for this everyone says. She’ll be lucky to get nominated.

    And then there’s the magnificent Rachel Weisz in “Deep Blue Sea”. Now THAT’S a brilliant tour-de-force to be reckoned with, awards-wise. And of course, there’s lovely Michelle as MM. We’ll all see that at the NYFF NEXT week can’t wait.

  131. Noone’s talking about it winning? Imo it’s the favourite. As someone above aptly put, it’s “something different with heart”.

  132. Noone’s talking about it winning? Imo it’s the favourite. As someone above aptly put, it’s “something different with heart”.

  133. seanflynn

    To add on the silly “consensus” around Streep (who of course could win – not remotely ruling that out) seems to have a lot to do with the mistaken notion that Academy members are sensitive to her not having an extremely unusual third acting Oscar.

    They aren’t, remotely. I’ve talked to various members over the years about this, and they roll their eyes over the idea that somehow she’s “due” for another one, and for that reason alone she should win. Indeed, that sort of campaign is counterproductive.

    My guess is she’ll win another Oscar someday. But most likely it will be when it’s not “the Meryl Streep show” as nearly all of her movies are these days – her performance as the focus of attention. Put her in a movie with lots of other acclaim, and her chances then would go way up.

  134. seanflynn

    To add on the silly “consensus” around Streep (who of course could win – not remotely ruling that out) seems to have a lot to do with the mistaken notion that Academy members are sensitive to her not having an extremely unusual third acting Oscar.

    They aren’t, remotely. I’ve talked to various members over the years about this, and they roll their eyes over the idea that somehow she’s “due” for another one, and for that reason alone she should win. Indeed, that sort of campaign is counterproductive.

    My guess is she’ll win another Oscar someday. But most likely it will be when it’s not “the Meryl Streep show” as nearly all of her movies are these days – her performance as the focus of attention. Put her in a movie with lots of other acclaim, and her chances then would go way up.

  135. @sasha

    I agree, no one has seen The Iron Lady yet, and I find that troubling. However, if in fact a consensus is growing around Streep, it could point to the fact that the field of candidates for Best Actress is weak this year. It could prove to be an opportunity for Streep, with 16 nominations and no win since 1982. Judging from previous years, consensus seems to be the most important factor for a win.

  136. @sasha

    I agree, no one has seen The Iron Lady yet, and I find that troubling. However, if in fact a consensus is growing around Streep, it could point to the fact that the field of candidates for Best Actress is weak this year. It could prove to be an opportunity for Streep, with 16 nominations and no win since 1982. Judging from previous years, consensus seems to be the most important factor for a win.

  137. I don’t agree with Hamlet assessment’s of the reaction to The Artist or The Descendants in Toronto. I attended both of the first screenings and the reactions was definitely enthusiastic and extremely positive. Both films benefited by being seen by a large audience at the Elgin Theater. Perhaps the reaction was not equal to the level of love for The King’s Speech last year, but what could equal that?

    Personally I no longer care what film wins Best Picture anymore at the Oscars but both The Artist and The Descendants would be respectable winners.

  138. I don’t agree with Hamlet assessment’s of the reaction to The Artist or The Descendants in Toronto. I attended both of the first screenings and the reactions was definitely enthusiastic and extremely positive. Both films benefited by being seen by a large audience at the Elgin Theater. Perhaps the reaction was not equal to the level of love for The King’s Speech last year, but what could equal that?

    Personally I no longer care what film wins Best Picture anymore at the Oscars but both The Artist and The Descendants would be respectable winners.

  139. To add to my post above–yes I saw The King’s Speech at a screening in Toronto with Firth, Rush and Hooper talking afterwards so I can compare reactions to those for The Artist and The Descendants this year.

    But to put this into perspective. The Toronto audience loved Up in the Air and that didn’t help the film in the long run.

  140. To add to my post above–yes I saw The King’s Speech at a screening in Toronto with Firth, Rush and Hooper talking afterwards so I can compare reactions to those for The Artist and The Descendants this year.

    But to put this into perspective. The Toronto audience loved Up in the Air and that didn’t help the film in the long run.

  141. Tero Heikkinen

    Meryl will win this time – 17th time the charm. Close has already shown that she will not win, Davis is too supporting. Williams we don’t know about yet, but she will not beat Streep.

    No wonder she is the REAL frontrunner now. And her performance is being kept secret cause it is stunning, I believe that.

    I want this to happen to piss off people like Jorge.

  142. Tero Heikkinen

    Meryl will win this time – 17th time the charm. Close has already shown that she will not win, Davis is too supporting. Williams we don’t know about yet, but she will not beat Streep.

    No wonder she is the REAL frontrunner now. And her performance is being kept secret cause it is stunning, I believe that.

    I want this to happen to piss off people like Jorge.

  143. Tero Heikkinen

    What film was the last silent picture to win BP? Heck, I have not even seen a new silent film in over a decade (Juha by Aki Kaurismäki). I want to see The Artist – right fucking now.

  144. Tero Heikkinen

    What film was the last silent picture to win BP? Heck, I have not even seen a new silent film in over a decade (Juha by Aki Kaurismäki). I want to see The Artist – right fucking now.

  145. Robert A.

    Tero, I think the last silent movie to win BP was the only silent movie to win BP, Wings back in the first year of awards, 1927. Someone correct me if I’m wrong.

  146. Robert A.

    Tero, I think the last silent movie to win BP was the only silent movie to win BP, Wings back in the first year of awards, 1927. Someone correct me if I’m wrong.

  147. Tero Heikkinen

    And there’s this one dialogueless Foreign Language Film winner from 1983. But I guess it’s not a silent film.

  148. Tero Heikkinen

    And there’s this one dialogueless Foreign Language Film winner from 1983. But I guess it’s not a silent film.

  149. seanflynn

    For 1927/28, there was no best picture award.

    Wings won for best production.

    Sunrise won for unique and artistic form.

    So there were two silent “best film” winners.

    The Circus was separately honored after being removed from competition in all categories, so a case can be made that it also was a “best film” winner.

    The Academy in the mid-1930s mistakenly identified Wings as the sole winner for that year. This was in response to Paramount wanting to do a re-release, with added sound and dialogue. They went to the Academy and asked for a clarification so that they could call it the “first” winner. Since Fox, which released Sunrise, no longer existed (it had merged with 20th Century Films) had no interest in their film, they didn’t object. Thus the incorrect identification ever since.

    Tero – Fanny & Alexander, the 1983 FL winner, was full of dialogue. What film are you referring to?

  150. seanflynn

    For 1927/28, there was no best picture award.

    Wings won for best production.

    Sunrise won for unique and artistic form.

    So there were two silent “best film” winners.

    The Circus was separately honored after being removed from competition in all categories, so a case can be made that it also was a “best film” winner.

    The Academy in the mid-1930s mistakenly identified Wings as the sole winner for that year. This was in response to Paramount wanting to do a re-release, with added sound and dialogue. They went to the Academy and asked for a clarification so that they could call it the “first” winner. Since Fox, which released Sunrise, no longer existed (it had merged with 20th Century Films) had no interest in their film, they didn’t object. Thus the incorrect identification ever since.

    Tero – Fanny & Alexander, the 1983 FL winner, was full of dialogue. What film are you referring to?

  151. seanflynn

    Unique and artistic film of course, not form.

    Reports from the awards were that the last award presented (they had been announced beforehand) went to Sunrise and its category, indicating it was regarded as at least an equal honor as what Wings won, if not higher.

  152. seanflynn

    Unique and artistic film of course, not form.

    Reports from the awards were that the last award presented (they had been announced beforehand) went to Sunrise and its category, indicating it was regarded as at least an equal honor as what Wings won, if not higher.

  153. Tero Heikkinen

    True, I should know better, I have seen the 5hr version even… I have Fanny & Alexander on blu-ray and from that movie we have the one and only Finn ever to win an Oscar.

    Nominee, I meant. A film by Ettore Scola.

  154. Tero Heikkinen

    True, I should know better, I have seen the 5hr version even… I have Fanny & Alexander on blu-ray and from that movie we have the one and only Finn ever to win an Oscar.

    Nominee, I meant. A film by Ettore Scola.

  155. My money is on this film to win

  156. My money is on this film to win

  157. tony rock

    Don’t care how good The Artist is, if it wins it’ll be another typical “old-fashioned” winner ala The Kings Speech. I want the Academy to start looking FORWARD, not backwards.

  158. tony rock

    Don’t care how good The Artist is, if it wins it’ll be another typical “old-fashioned” winner ala The Kings Speech. I want the Academy to start looking FORWARD, not backwards.

  159. this movie while delightful in its look with costuming and cars and buildings and a whole lot of $… but was boring and drawn out … the main character was a pathetic individual typical of hollywood stars of yesterday and today. who can seriously say they could care less whether he lived or died.. no no no not even close to being an oscar winner… but wait what is an oscar winner these days anyway … just some exclusive club for people with money .. 99%… I feel insulted .. relationships sucked … story was weak.. main lead very pretty and could do a nice tap dance and the dog was cute.. but come on people

  160. may I ad that I just don’t get the buzz and I don’t get WHY it is up for an oscar? I didn’t come away moved, touched, changed, inspired, thoughtful or any of the typical things that an oscar winning movie provides… to me it was an interesting experimental film that fell a little flat …

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