Prognosticating the Gotham nominees

Peter Knegt at IndieWire takes a swing at forecasting tomorrow’s Gotham nominees, and comes up with this list of likelys for Best Feature.

  • The Descendants
  • Drive
  • Martha Marcy May Marlene
  • Take Shelter
  • The Tree of Life

Peter names these alternative possibilities: Midnight in Paris, We Need To Talk About Kevin, Like Crazy, Pariah, Win Win, Rampart, Jane Eyre, Beginners.  Surprisingly (or not), he’s rather quick to write off  Oscar hopes for any Indies other than The Descendants, Midnight in Paris and Tree of Life.  (He lists altogether 16 films that he thinks will figure significantly in tomorrow’s Gotham categories, after the cut.)

He notes that the Gothams allow for Indies with bigger budgets — a bar that will exclude Tree of Life and Midnight in Paris from the Spirit Awards. Likewise, international indies like Shame and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy are probably ineligible for Gotham nominations because their rules stipulate films “must be directed and/or produced by a US born or based filmmaker.”

• Jonathan Levine’s “50/50”
• Mike Mills’ “Beginners”
• Maryam Keshavarz’s “Circumstance”
• Alexander Payne’s “The Descendants”
• Nicolas Winding Refn’s “Drive”
• Miranda July’s “The Future”
• Cary Fukunaga’s “Jane Eyre”
• Drake Doremus’ “Like Crazy”
• Sean Durkin’s “Martha Marcy May Marlene”
• Kelly Reichardt’s “Meek’s Cutoff”
• Woody Allen’s “Midnight in Paris”
• Dee Rees’ “Pariah”
• Oren Moverman’s “Rampart”
• Jeff Nichols’ “Take Shelter”
• Terrence Malick’s “The Tree of Life”
• Lynne Ramsay’s “We Need To Talk About Kevin”

Knegt’s predictions in other categories:

Best Cast Ensemble:
The predicted five:

  • 50/50
  • Drive
  • Jane Eyre
  • Midnight in Paris
  • Win Win

But watch out for:
Rampart
Pariah
The Descendants
Meek’s Cutoff
Martha Marcy May Marlene

Best Breakthrough Director:
The predicted five:

  • Mike Cahill, Another Earth
  • Sean Durkin, Martha Marcy May Marlene
  • Evan Glodell, Bellflower
  • Maryam Keshavarz, Circumstance
  • Dee Rees, Pariah

But watch out for:
Drake Doremus, Like Crazy (though its his second feature)
Vera Farmiga, Higher Ground
Rashaad Ernesto Green, Gun Hill Road

Best Breakthrough Performance:
The predicted five:

  • Jessica Chastain, Take Shelter (or The Tree of Life?)
  • Ezra Miller, We Need To Talk About Kevin
  • Adepero Oduye, Pariah
  • Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene
  • Shailenne Woodley, The Descendants

But watch out for:
Felicity Jones, Like Crazy
Brit Marling, Another Earth
Hunter McCracken, The Tree of Life
Hamish Linklater, The Future
Nikohl Boosheri, Circumstance

20th Anniversary Gotham Independent Award winners

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Gotham Award Nominees!

14 Comments

  1. Porter
    October 19, 2011

    Jessica Chastain (definitely, for The Tree of Life!), Elizabeth Olsen, Ezra Miller, Hunter McCracken and Brit Marling are sure to get nominations!

  2. Porter
    October 19, 2011

    Jessica Chastain (definitely, for The Tree of Life!), Elizabeth Olsen, Ezra Miller, Hunter McCracken and Brit Marling are sure to get nominations!

  3. Andrew Sidhom
    October 19, 2011

    Great job summing up the Best Feature contenders. There are none that I could add to that list. I just disagree about the fact that only TTOL, MiP and The Descendants have a chance at the Oscars. Although these are the most prominent three, I would add Drive as a strong Best Picture contender (for a nomination I mean), as well as We Need to Talk About Kevin and 50/50 as long shots.

  4. Andrew Sidhom
    October 19, 2011

    Great job summing up the Best Feature contenders. There are none that I could add to that list. I just disagree about the fact that only TTOL, MiP and The Descendants have a chance at the Oscars. Although these are the most prominent three, I would add Drive as a strong Best Picture contender (for a nomination I mean), as well as We Need to Talk About Kevin and 50/50 as long shots.

  5. Stefy
    October 19, 2011

    I would like for Best Breakthrough Performance: Jessica chastain, Elizabeth olsen,Adepero Oduye, Brit Marling and Anton yelchin.

  6. Stefy
    October 19, 2011

    I would like for Best Breakthrough Performance: Jessica chastain, Elizabeth olsen,Adepero Oduye, Brit Marling and Anton yelchin.

  7. K Trout
    October 19, 2011

    Those BP nominees are too high profile, plus 3 of them are Searchlight. I’d throw out 1-2 and pick something smaller.

  8. K Trout
    October 19, 2011

    Those BP nominees are too high profile, plus 3 of them are Searchlight. I’d throw out 1-2 and pick something smaller.

  9. K Trout
    October 19, 2011

    Pariah probably has a shot.

  10. K Trout
    October 19, 2011

    Pariah probably has a shot.

  11. Porter
    October 19, 2011

    Jacob Wysocki for Terri?

  12. Porter
    October 19, 2011

    Jacob Wysocki for Terri?

  13. SP1234
    October 19, 2011

    Best Film Not Showing at a Theater Near You: White Irish Drinkers. An aggressive coming-of-age film in the spirit of Mean Streets, the film features an incredible performance from Stephen Lang (Avatar, Terra Nova) as an abusive family man who is emotionally repressed. I’m shocked that he’s not getting any Oscar consideration for it, because Lang is an actor long-overdue for big awards.

  14. SP1234
    October 19, 2011

    Best Film Not Showing at a Theater Near You: White Irish Drinkers. An aggressive coming-of-age film in the spirit of Mean Streets, the film features an incredible performance from Stephen Lang (Avatar, Terra Nova) as an abusive family man who is emotionally repressed. I’m shocked that he’s not getting any Oscar consideration for it, because Lang is an actor long-overdue for big awards.

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