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Gold Derby Pundits – Close Race so Far Between The Artist and The Descendants

Tom O’Neil’s Gold Derby, impressive assemblage of journalists, bloggers and critics predicts the Oscar race down to two movies — The Artist and The Descendants.  Once again we are faced with the odd position of having to predict films most have still not seen.  It appears that only three films fit that bill right now and those are War Horse, Dragon Tattoo and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.  Some have seen War Horse. Many of the long lead journos, some of whom are on Gold Derby’s panel, have already seen it but are under an embargo.  The Descendants looks ready to top the critics chart, beating Moneyball and Harry Potter — it looks that way so far.

One of its biggest challengers is sure to be The Artist, which already has a powerful advocate in the LA Times’ Kenneth Turan, and now Anthony Lane has written a breathless rave for the New Yorker — his review, in fact, is the first to dive deeper into the artist than the notion that is simply a charmer, which it is.   Lane also praises The Descendants, comparing it to From Here to Eternity, which famously won eight Oscars, including Picture, Director and Screenplay.

The Artist and The Descendants are going to go toe to toe, with some likely push back from three big question marks: Dragon Tattoo, Extremely Loud and War Horse.  Of the upcoming films it might appear more obvious what is going to win Best Picture, but for now, it’s down to two films that are about to face their final test – the box office.  The money is going to heavily impact the trajectory of The Artist and The Descendants.  War Horse, Dragon Tattoo will have no problem making bank.

That said, 9 of the Gold Derbyites have The Artist for the win.  10 have chosen The Descendants.  7 have chosen the sight unseen (mostly), War Horse.  Let it be said that no one is taking any kind of major risk by predicting, say, Dragon Tattoo to win — we all play it safe because we’re trying to be right. We’re not gambling on the long call in order to make money on a bet.  You can add your own predictions over at Gold Derby, and check out the rest of what the pundits are predicting.

32 Comments on this Post

  1. From the previews, it looks like a Lifetime movie. If it were directed by anybody else but Alexander Payne, it wouldn’t get a sniff from critics and Clooney would be cited for his role in The Ides of March.

  2. From the previews, it looks like a Lifetime movie. If it were directed by anybody else but Alexander Payne, it wouldn’t get a sniff from critics and Clooney would be cited for his role in The Ides of March.

  3. It’s like picking out exactly which new clothes the Emperor is going to wear.

  4. It’s like picking out exactly which new clothes the Emperor is going to wear.

  5. Erik Anderson

    Well, I’m predicting Dragon Tattoo to win, so there’s that.

  6. Erik Anderson

    Well, I’m predicting Dragon Tattoo to win, so there’s that.

  7. How much will The Artist make at the box office? That could be a determining factor in terms of it winning Best Picture. Many people will not be keen as it is a silent film.

  8. How much will The Artist make at the box office? That could be a determining factor in terms of it winning Best Picture. Many people will not be keen as it is a silent film.

  9. Paul, judging a movie from the previews is stupid. You haven’t seen it but already you are implying that it us overrated. Trailers are not movies

  10. Paul, judging a movie from the previews is stupid. You haven’t seen it but already you are implying that it us overrated. Trailers are not movies

  11. If it weren’t for The Artist, I’d be predicting The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo for the win. I know that’s ridiculously presumptuous, but I don’t care. It’s a hunch, so I won’t mind if it turns out to be drastically wrong.

    All this, and David Fincher is predicting it to score no nominations:

    http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/movies/news/a350922/david-fincher-dragon-tattoo-is-too-explicit-for-oscar-nomination.html

    Although that may just be Fincher being humble…

  12. If it weren’t for The Artist, I’d be predicting The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo for the win. I know that’s ridiculously presumptuous, but I don’t care. It’s a hunch, so I won’t mind if it turns out to be drastically wrong.

    All this, and David Fincher is predicting it to score no nominations:

    http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/movies/news/a350922/david-fincher-dragon-tattoo-is-too-explicit-for-oscar-nomination.html

    Although that may just be Fincher being humble…

  13. julian the emperor

    I have this hunch that it is going to be Redgrave, Plummer, Davis and Dujardin this year. The Artist for bp and direction. It would take a lot for me to change my mind about this outcome…

  14. julian the emperor

    I have this hunch that it is going to be Redgrave, Plummer, Davis and Dujardin this year. The Artist for bp and direction. It would take a lot for me to change my mind about this outcome…

  15. I still believe that the winner this year will be Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close. And Daldry for Best Director.

  16. I still believe that the winner this year will be Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close. And Daldry for Best Director.

  17. Well all I can say is that if War Horse hold’s up to the trailers that are now hitting the air waves it’s going to be hard to beat.

    I have to say that I stuck by Midnight in Paris to get a nomination for BP right from the beginning and still stick by that. I had been sticking by J Edgar and sadly I don’t see how J Edgar can recover and find a place in the line up.

    Based on what I know, what I’ve read and what I’ve seen at this point I think it will be the following
    War Horse
    The Artist
    The Descendants
    Midnight in Paris
    The Help
    Extremely Loud

    and right on their heels Tin Tin, Shame,Hugo and maybe Moneyball.

  18. Well all I can say is that if War Horse hold’s up to the trailers that are now hitting the air waves it’s going to be hard to beat.

    I have to say that I stuck by Midnight in Paris to get a nomination for BP right from the beginning and still stick by that. I had been sticking by J Edgar and sadly I don’t see how J Edgar can recover and find a place in the line up.

    Based on what I know, what I’ve read and what I’ve seen at this point I think it will be the following
    War Horse
    The Artist
    The Descendants
    Midnight in Paris
    The Help
    Extremely Loud

    and right on their heels Tin Tin, Shame,Hugo and maybe Moneyball.

  19. I have this hunch that it is going to be Redgrave, Plummer, Davis and Dujardin this year.

    Wouldn’t that be a humdinger for the audience at home?

  20. I have this hunch that it is going to be Redgrave, Plummer, Davis and Dujardin this year.

    Wouldn’t that be a humdinger for the audience at home?

  21. “Wouldn’t that be a humdinger for the audience at home?”

    If it were up to the audience at home, it would be a horserace between Potter and Twilight: Breaking Wind, er Dawn.

  22. “Wouldn’t that be a humdinger for the audience at home?”

    If it were up to the audience at home, it would be a horserace between Potter and Twilight: Breaking Wind, er Dawn.

  23. You don’t think it would be sorta hilarious if you’re looking at the screen and Dujardin is walking up while George Clooney, Brad Pitt, Leonardo DiCaprio and, I dunno, Gary Oldman are all confined to their little boxes? At that point he’d have to include this in his speech to make it perfect. http://youtu.be/cAy4zULKFDU

    I’m not saying they shouldn’t give it to the most deserving person. I’m just saying don’t be surprised when people don’t tune into the show. It’s not about who’s hosting, it’s about who wins. When “the people” have a dog in the hunt, they tune in. When people they don’t know or don’t care about win, then they don’t care. Waiting up until 11:30 at night to be disappointed 3 or 4 times in a row isn’t most people’s cup of tea.

  24. You don’t think it would be sorta hilarious if you’re looking at the screen and Dujardin is walking up while George Clooney, Brad Pitt, Leonardo DiCaprio and, I dunno, Gary Oldman are all confined to their little boxes? At that point he’d have to include this in his speech to make it perfect. http://youtu.be/cAy4zULKFDU

    I’m not saying they shouldn’t give it to the most deserving person. I’m just saying don’t be surprised when people don’t tune into the show. It’s not about who’s hosting, it’s about who wins. When “the people” have a dog in the hunt, they tune in. When people they don’t know or don’t care about win, then they don’t care. Waiting up until 11:30 at night to be disappointed 3 or 4 times in a row isn’t most people’s cup of tea.

  25. Alexandra

    Antoinette,I agree with you…especially on that last paragraph…

  26. Alexandra

    Antoinette,I agree with you…especially on that last paragraph…

  27. Really don’t see The Descendants winning. Alexander Payne is one of of my favourite directors, but i just don’t see it happening. For me, War Horse and Extremely Loud, the latter especially, are stronger than The Descendants.

  28. Really don’t see The Descendants winning. Alexander Payne is one of of my favourite directors, but i just don’t see it happening. For me, War Horse and Extremely Loud, the latter especially, are stronger than The Descendants.

  29. “If it were up to the audience at home, it would be a horserace between Potter and Twilight: Breaking Wind, er Dawn.”

    Not with People’s Choice voters, namely, us, who shunned Breaking Dawn. Their favorite movie nominees were Bridesmaids, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, The Help, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides and Transformers: Dark of the Moon.

    Except for the last 2, that’s a lineup folks can sit down on Oscar night and see just who’s better; two comedies (the HFPA today said no, DreamWorks, you can’t submit The Help as a drama) and the finale of the most lucrative fantasy franchise ever. In Favorite Drama, Moneyball was one of the nominees. There’s your drama that was a moderate hit with fans and critics. In an off year as 2011 was, that’s a pretty good BP lineup. You have critical and fan favorites represented equally. Not the cluster-eff that is in the offing with independent films that will hog all of the slots. Or films that dirty-bombed with moviegoers at the boxoffice. Or just plain old shameless Oscar bait. Or a critics-orchestrated campaign which is priming the pump for Alexander Payne as the one who’s now ‘due’.

    “It’s not about who’s hosting, it’s about who wins. When “the people” have a dog in the hunt, they tune in. When people they don’t know or don’t care about win, then they don’t care.”

    +1,000,000

  30. “If it were up to the audience at home, it would be a horserace between Potter and Twilight: Breaking Wind, er Dawn.”

    Not with People’s Choice voters, namely, us, who shunned Breaking Dawn. Their favorite movie nominees were Bridesmaids, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, The Help, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides and Transformers: Dark of the Moon.

    Except for the last 2, that’s a lineup folks can sit down on Oscar night and see just who’s better; two comedies (the HFPA today said no, DreamWorks, you can’t submit The Help as a drama) and the finale of the most lucrative fantasy franchise ever. In Favorite Drama, Moneyball was one of the nominees. There’s your drama that was a moderate hit with fans and critics. In an off year as 2011 was, that’s a pretty good BP lineup. You have critical and fan favorites represented equally. Not the cluster-eff that is in the offing with independent films that will hog all of the slots. Or films that dirty-bombed with moviegoers at the boxoffice. Or just plain old shameless Oscar bait. Or a critics-orchestrated campaign which is priming the pump for Alexander Payne as the one who’s now ‘due’.

    “It’s not about who’s hosting, it’s about who wins. When “the people” have a dog in the hunt, they tune in. When people they don’t know or don’t care about win, then they don’t care.”

    +1,000,000

  31. TonyBiigood

    Yes Antoinette, but Dujardin really deserves it.

  32. TonyBiigood

    Yes Antoinette, but Dujardin really deserves it.

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