Woman On Top: Streep Triumphs, Spirit Awards Shuts Out Close and Barkin

Meryl Streep apparently won the New York Film Critics with no contest. Some rumblings that Kirsten Dunst and Michelle Williams were close, Viola Davis in the mix as well. Streep’s impressive performance as Margaret Thatcher earned her this award, and indeed, it’s a towering achievement. Streep is great in the old age segments, where her walk and way of regarding other people and situations feels so authentic.

The race still feels like it’s between Streep and The Help’s Viola Davis, as Dave Karger’s own recent Oscar predictions confirms. The Help seems on track to earn a Best Picture nomination, which helps Viola Davis, who would become only the second black woman in 84 years of Oscar history to win such an honor.

Also giving off some heat is Michelle Williams as Marilyn Monroe. Her performance is so beloved she will absolutely draw votes. The question is, from which contender?

It was awful news to hear that Glenn Close was shut out of the Spirit Awards, along with Ellen Barkin. Good Christ, if ever there was a film intended to do well at the Spirit awards it was Another Happy Day. The nominees in this category are, with one exception, younger actresses. Though it’s some kind of miracle that Adepero Oduye was nominated for Pariah. But surely they could have found room for Close.

Something tells me, though, that Close is still Oscar-bound.

Meanwhile, Streep, if she wins and Iron Lady isn’t nominated for Picture, she’ll join the ranks of only three other women since 1980 who won the NYFCC and then Oscar when their film wasn’t nominated for Best Picture.

138 Comments on this Post

  1. Tero Heikkinen

    I think Close will still be the fourth nominee at the Oscars. Theron is fifth.

  2. Tero Heikkinen

    I think Close will still be the fourth nominee at the Oscars. Theron is fifth.

  3. BRAVA, MERYL, BRAVA!

  4. BRAVA, MERYL, BRAVA!

  5. Houstonrufus

    I’m still thinking Close will be nominated. It’s still so early. It certainly would have helped for Close to have more of a profile at the Spirits. But I’m still thinking she’ll get nominated for oscar.

    Streep and Close may not be in films being lavished with praise, but Barkin’s film is getting downright panned from what I can tell. It sounds to me like she had a tougher challenge. But I certainly would love to see her working more. She is a unique actress.

  6. Houstonrufus

    I’m still thinking Close will be nominated. It’s still so early. It certainly would have helped for Close to have more of a profile at the Spirits. But I’m still thinking she’ll get nominated for oscar.

    Streep and Close may not be in films being lavished with praise, but Barkin’s film is getting downright panned from what I can tell. It sounds to me like she had a tougher challenge. But I certainly would love to see her working more. She is a unique actress.

  7. I am SOOO rooting for Viola Davis. Streep has her 2 Oscars.

  8. I am SOOO rooting for Viola Davis. Streep has her 2 Oscars.

  9. Deena Jones' wig

    THE YEAR OF THE STREEP. IT IS ABOUT DAMN TIME!!!!!!

  10. Deena Jones' wig

    THE YEAR OF THE STREEP. IT IS ABOUT DAMN TIME!!!!!!

  11. im still holding out hope for Kirsten Dunst. a piece of me thought she would have had it today.

  12. im still holding out hope for Kirsten Dunst. a piece of me thought she would have had it today.

  13. Sasha why don’t you add Kirsten Dunst to your tracker list for Best Actress? You’ve added everyone else with similar odds?! ADD her, ADD her. Add her!!!

  14. Sasha why don’t you add Kirsten Dunst to your tracker list for Best Actress? You’ve added everyone else with similar odds?! ADD her, ADD her. Add her!!!

  15. If anyone can dispel the myth that an actress needs to be in a BP nominee, Streep is the one to do it. Davis, didn’t even place in the top 3 with NFCC and Streep won on the first round with majority of #1 votes. All other categories went to 2nd and 3rd ballots. Sorry, but Davis is not winning simply to make history. Streep seems to have the right Oscar vehicle this year.

  16. If anyone can dispel the myth that an actress needs to be in a BP nominee, Streep is the one to do it. Davis, didn’t even place in the top 3 with NFCC and Streep won on the first round with majority of #1 votes. All other categories went to 2nd and 3rd ballots. Sorry, but Davis is not winning simply to make history. Streep seems to have the right Oscar vehicle this year.

  17. Meanwhile, Streep, if she wins and Iron Lady isn’t nominated for Picture, she’ll join the ranks of only three other women since 1980 who won the NYFCC and then Oscar when their film wasn’t nominated for Best Picture.

    Isn’t Meryl already in that circle since she won NYFCC and the Oscar for Sophie’s Choice and SC didn’t get a BP nom?

  18. Meanwhile, Streep, if she wins and Iron Lady isn’t nominated for Picture, she’ll join the ranks of only three other women since 1980 who won the NYFCC and then Oscar when their film wasn’t nominated for Best Picture.

    Isn’t Meryl already in that circle since she won NYFCC and the Oscar for Sophie’s Choice and SC didn’t get a BP nom?

  19. Deena Jones' wig

    Sean
    The an actress need a BP nominee argument is absolutely invalid. Hilary Swank won for Boys Don’t Cry with no BP nomination beating out the lovely Ms. Bening who was in BP nominated movie (American beauty). Halle Berry and Charlize Theron also won for movies which were shut out of most , if not all, categories including best picture.

  20. Deena Jones' wig

    Sean
    The an actress need a BP nominee argument is absolutely invalid. Hilary Swank won for Boys Don’t Cry with no BP nomination beating out the lovely Ms. Bening who was in BP nominated movie (American beauty). Halle Berry and Charlize Theron also won for movies which were shut out of most , if not all, categories including best picture.

  21. Please, DON’T add Dunst for that non-entity of a performance in that awful film (if you can call it a film).

  22. Please, DON’T add Dunst for that non-entity of a performance in that awful film (if you can call it a film).

  23. FilmFatale

    Joseph, I totally agree. Melancholia was a self-indulgent and dramatically inert piece of twaddle from a master filmmaker who took leave of his senses (and his usually great screenwriting abilities). While I loved his last film, Antichrist, this one is about the most unsatisfyingly remote experience one can imagine, with many heralding its theme (thoughtful) over its actual execution (empty). Dunst was a black hole in this film with an unplayable character who changes with the wind, adding up to zilch.

  24. FilmFatale

    Joseph, I totally agree. Melancholia was a self-indulgent and dramatically inert piece of twaddle from a master filmmaker who took leave of his senses (and his usually great screenwriting abilities). While I loved his last film, Antichrist, this one is about the most unsatisfyingly remote experience one can imagine, with many heralding its theme (thoughtful) over its actual execution (empty). Dunst was a black hole in this film with an unplayable character who changes with the wind, adding up to zilch.

  25. This year is fascinating. Why can’t Viola Davis be considered for a supporting actress nominee (and then she and Meryl can both win, and no one has to feel bad)? I think there may be a sentiment that starts to grow in Hollywood to give Streep the Oscar because it will be her 17th nomination, and she has not won since 1983 (she has shown up and lost over the past 29 years, and she is now 62 and will not be around forever – it’s a perfect time to give her the career third Oscar and cement her Hollywood legend status). Viola Davis has done great work, but she has decades to be recognized. I guess that I am not understanding the rush to give her an Oscar on her second nomination, when she is relatively young?

  26. This year is fascinating. Why can’t Viola Davis be considered for a supporting actress nominee (and then she and Meryl can both win, and no one has to feel bad)? I think there may be a sentiment that starts to grow in Hollywood to give Streep the Oscar because it will be her 17th nomination, and she has not won since 1983 (she has shown up and lost over the past 29 years, and she is now 62 and will not be around forever – it’s a perfect time to give her the career third Oscar and cement her Hollywood legend status). Viola Davis has done great work, but she has decades to be recognized. I guess that I am not understanding the rush to give her an Oscar on her second nomination, when she is relatively young?

  27. So she shouldn’t be added in the mix despite getting just as much buzz/praise as other contenders because YOU didn’t like the performance? lol

  28. So she shouldn’t be added in the mix despite getting just as much buzz/praise as other contenders because YOU didn’t like the performance? lol

  29. Personally I’m getting a little tired of the “second black actress” routine. Every time you use a description like that you diminish the award should Viola win. Stop it. Viola Davis is an actress and yes a black actress, but she’s not an actress because she’s black. She’s an actress because she’s got the right stuff. TALENT. I nearly cringed last week when I read in comment at this site that those who believed Viola should have been in the supporting category were trying to put her in the “back of the bus”. Every time a writer or commentator uses race as the gild on the lily to push Viola into the forefront only takes a little more lustre off the gold statue should she be nominated and win. Every time anyone makes that statement they then label Ms Davis for future historians that she won the award based more on race than she did her talent. Don’t people realize that you diminish her work as an actor? We all know she’s black. Most of us all know how many blacks have won Oscars. We don’t to be constantly reminded that she’s black. I for one could care less if she came from Mars as long as she can do the job and damn she does the job. Viola Davis is accomplished. Period.

  30. Personally I’m getting a little tired of the “second black actress” routine. Every time you use a description like that you diminish the award should Viola win. Stop it. Viola Davis is an actress and yes a black actress, but she’s not an actress because she’s black. She’s an actress because she’s got the right stuff. TALENT. I nearly cringed last week when I read in comment at this site that those who believed Viola should have been in the supporting category were trying to put her in the “back of the bus”. Every time a writer or commentator uses race as the gild on the lily to push Viola into the forefront only takes a little more lustre off the gold statue should she be nominated and win. Every time anyone makes that statement they then label Ms Davis for future historians that she won the award based more on race than she did her talent. Don’t people realize that you diminish her work as an actor? We all know she’s black. Most of us all know how many blacks have won Oscars. We don’t to be constantly reminded that she’s black. I for one could care less if she came from Mars as long as she can do the job and damn she does the job. Viola Davis is accomplished. Period.

  31. nic V

    sb

  32. nic V

    sb

  33. I just saw “Albert Nobbs” last night and LOVED it! It’s a tad too long, but I found it heart-breaking and all the animosity the film is receiving is simply because it is about a transgendered person in the 19th century! I can’t tell you how much I feel Close’s performance is haunting. It’s a very restrained, hardly a tour-de-force, but Close does something she’s not been known for heretofore, which is UNDERPLAYING! The Academy, the Actor’s Branch and SAG will GET it though.

    She just rips your heart out. Something I never thought I’d ever type about Glenn Close. She’s playing a shy, timid, totally fear-filled servant a waiter who is deathly afraid of being found out that she, in reality is NOT a he.

    She’s really at the ultimate pinnacle of her career her. But “Albert Nobbs” is very challenging to people, esp. the non=transgendered masses. I having lived as a member of the opposite sex when I was young and under Andy Warhol’s influence….I’m telling you. “Albert Nobbs” is right on and I certainly HOPE Close gets a nomination.

    There is a LOT of sympathy for her these days, among the Actor’s Branch. Something that Streep doesn’t have, BTW. But the transgender aspect of this film is what’s throwing people for a loop. BECAUSE IT’S DONE SO WELL AND IT’S SO TRUE!

    And thank goodness, the Spirits nominated Janet McTeer in Supporting! I think they will follow suit at the Academy, too.

    And kudos to the Spirits for nominating A REAL transgendered actress, Harmony Santana for “Gun Hill Road” as Best Supporting ACTRESS! Now, that’s something that’s not happened before.

  34. I just saw “Albert Nobbs” last night and LOVED it! It’s a tad too long, but I found it heart-breaking and all the animosity the film is receiving is simply because it is about a transgendered person in the 19th century! I can’t tell you how much I feel Close’s performance is haunting. It’s a very restrained, hardly a tour-de-force, but Close does something she’s not been known for heretofore, which is UNDERPLAYING! The Academy, the Actor’s Branch and SAG will GET it though.

    She just rips your heart out. Something I never thought I’d ever type about Glenn Close. She’s playing a shy, timid, totally fear-filled servant a waiter who is deathly afraid of being found out that she, in reality is NOT a he.

    She’s really at the ultimate pinnacle of her career her. But “Albert Nobbs” is very challenging to people, esp. the non=transgendered masses. I having lived as a member of the opposite sex when I was young and under Andy Warhol’s influence….I’m telling you. “Albert Nobbs” is right on and I certainly HOPE Close gets a nomination.

    There is a LOT of sympathy for her these days, among the Actor’s Branch. Something that Streep doesn’t have, BTW. But the transgender aspect of this film is what’s throwing people for a loop. BECAUSE IT’S DONE SO WELL AND IT’S SO TRUE!

    And thank goodness, the Spirits nominated Janet McTeer in Supporting! I think they will follow suit at the Academy, too.

    And kudos to the Spirits for nominating A REAL transgendered actress, Harmony Santana for “Gun Hill Road” as Best Supporting ACTRESS! Now, that’s something that’s not happened before.

  35. Streep cannot win without a picture nomination. Why? She’s fucking Sophie Zawistowski! There hasn’t been a performance since that has topped that amazing gift from God. Streep can’t win without a performance that tops her’s in Sophie’s Choice or just an extremely bad year for actresses. Davis and Williams will duke this one out.

  36. Streep cannot win without a picture nomination. Why? She’s fucking Sophie Zawistowski! There hasn’t been a performance since that has topped that amazing gift from God. Streep can’t win without a performance that tops her’s in Sophie’s Choice or just an extremely bad year for actresses. Davis and Williams will duke this one out.

  37. I really don’t want Streep to win because people feel she’s due. That is the worst reasoning for giving an award. The performance should stand on its own. No one who wins an Oscar necessarily deserves another one.

  38. I really don’t want Streep to win because people feel she’s due. That is the worst reasoning for giving an award. The performance should stand on its own. No one who wins an Oscar necessarily deserves another one.

  39. I felt some of the Independent Spirit Award nominations were a travesty and just off-base with a lot of inconsistency between categories, and outrageous shut-outs due to some rule changes about budget and foreign film productions. I went on an incoherent rant about it, on another entry. I still think Glenn Close and Kirsten Dunst have a good shot at being nominated. I personally think Kate Winslet should go for lead for Carnage, Keira Knightly for supporting, and Viola should go for supporting but right now it seems they are campaigning the opposite. Mia Wasikowksa is just being ignored. I wish Tilda Swinton, Olivia Coleman, and Emily Watson would get some recognition for their gripping performances. I wish Elizabeth Olsen would get in over Williams.

    Like it or not, the sentiment is that people feel that Close and Streep are overdue. Streep already has an Oscar and frequently gets nominated for almost everything she has done recently whether it be for the Globes or the Oscar. Body of work and overdue status come into play. Some people think Viola Davis is overdue and I don’t even want to discuss the other issues with The Help. I personally felt Kate won because people felt she was overdue, her body of work, and she had two strong roles that year with TR and RR regardless or not if her work was the strongest that year. Then you had popularity and etc with Sandra Bullock. There are so many petty factors into play.

    I haven’t seen The Iron Lady yet. I just hope the strongest performances get nominated and it is not about who is “due” or legacies or whatever. I wish it could just be about the acting for once.

  40. I felt some of the Independent Spirit Award nominations were a travesty and just off-base with a lot of inconsistency between categories, and outrageous shut-outs due to some rule changes about budget and foreign film productions. I went on an incoherent rant about it, on another entry. I still think Glenn Close and Kirsten Dunst have a good shot at being nominated. I personally think Kate Winslet should go for lead for Carnage, Keira Knightly for supporting, and Viola should go for supporting but right now it seems they are campaigning the opposite. Mia Wasikowksa is just being ignored. I wish Tilda Swinton, Olivia Coleman, and Emily Watson would get some recognition for their gripping performances. I wish Elizabeth Olsen would get in over Williams.

    Like it or not, the sentiment is that people feel that Close and Streep are overdue. Streep already has an Oscar and frequently gets nominated for almost everything she has done recently whether it be for the Globes or the Oscar. Body of work and overdue status come into play. Some people think Viola Davis is overdue and I don’t even want to discuss the other issues with The Help. I personally felt Kate won because people felt she was overdue, her body of work, and she had two strong roles that year with TR and RR regardless or not if her work was the strongest that year. Then you had popularity and etc with Sandra Bullock. There are so many petty factors into play.

    I haven’t seen The Iron Lady yet. I just hope the strongest performances get nominated and it is not about who is “due” or legacies or whatever. I wish it could just be about the acting for once.

  41. Ok, as someone who is more interested in the celebrity gossip/politics/campaigning aspect of the awards, I have some slightly different thoughts than you film buffs. Very often, awards junkies seems to forget that a great performance is only half the battle for an actor – you’ve gotta have cred with the Academy, some star power, and you’ve gotta campaign. Ahem, Sandra Bullock, please step forward. The biggest thing I’m noticing in the projected Actress races is a lack of glamour and name recognition.

    Take Best Actress, for example. There are literally thousands of fashion and gossip blogs that are going to be tracking every move of the nominated actresses during awards season. The Oscars broadcast sorely needs some star power, some youth and glamour. You are not going to see a Best Actress category with Meryl Streep, Glenn Close, Viola Davis, and Tilda Swinton together. You’ll likely only get two of them, imo. I had been thinking it would be Streep and Close, but maybe Davis will be substituted for one of them.

    Michelle Williams is an absolute lock for a best actress nom and I think she has a pretty good shot at winning. Giving a great performance as Monroe is likely to play well with the Academy (lots of old white guys). She wants it badly from what I hear and will be pulling out all the stops in her campaign. I also think Keira Knightly has a good shot at getting in. She has previous Oscar cred, she has the glamour factor, she has a meaty, sexy role. Oscar bait. Charlize Theron would also bring some glamour, and I think she looks fabulous in Young Adult’s trailer. But the movie seems more like a dark, subtle comedy, and I don’t think it will play as well with the Academy as A Dangerous Method. But she could get in.

    Now there’s often an ingenue thrown in here – I would choose Felicity Jones over Elizabeth Olsen in that case. Jones’ love story is more accessible and straightforward than MMMM, and, here it comes, Jones is sexier. That will play better with the Academy; I know you’re all hating me for saying it. I think that MMMM will be this year’s Bright Star – aka one the indie critics tried to make happen; but it didn’t have the star power to get to the Oscars.

    One more note on Streep – I’m sold on a nomination but not a win. It feels like too obvious an Oscar push. If the only thing people like about the film is her performance, and alot of her momentum comes from past performances, another actress may be able to overtake her. She already has two Oscars so I don’t know how much they’ll care about her being “overdue.” But, if she pulls off a good campaign, she could have it in the bag.

    A few more thoughts – Best Actor is Brad Pitt’s to lose, and word on the street is he wants it bad. Expect some serious campaigning from Mr. Pitt. He has never won before; Moneyball seems to be a sentimental favorite; and he and Angelina are the King and Queen of Hollywood. Missteps in his campaign will be the only thing to keep him from winning.

    Clooney will be nominated as well, but the Descendants will be another Up in the Air, I think. Seems to be suffering from overblown expectations, and there’s nothing particularly fresh about a family drama. With his nominations last year, George needed something really stunning and different to push him over the top and I don’t think this is it. Michael Fassbender is hot right now and I could see him scoring a nom too; but I prefer Dangerous Method to Shame, just seems more like Oscar Bait to me.

    Supporting actress is Jessica Chastain’s to lose, but she could be hurt by having several movies out. The rest of the field is very murky, needs some more star power. Supporting actor, I’m liking Viggo Mortensen, Christopher Plummer, and Kevin Spacey or other Margin Call actors. Albert Brooks is another good possibility. Plummer, Mortensen, Brooks have the overdue factor, Spacey and Irons have serious Oscar cred and a movie that is peaking at the perfect time.

    And I’m going to fully admit to having seen NONE of these movies so far (will get to some eventually.) But some academy voters will vote without actually watching all the movies so I’m just thinking like one of them ;)

  42. Ok, as someone who is more interested in the celebrity gossip/politics/campaigning aspect of the awards, I have some slightly different thoughts than you film buffs. Very often, awards junkies seems to forget that a great performance is only half the battle for an actor – you’ve gotta have cred with the Academy, some star power, and you’ve gotta campaign. Ahem, Sandra Bullock, please step forward. The biggest thing I’m noticing in the projected Actress races is a lack of glamour and name recognition.

    Take Best Actress, for example. There are literally thousands of fashion and gossip blogs that are going to be tracking every move of the nominated actresses during awards season. The Oscars broadcast sorely needs some star power, some youth and glamour. You are not going to see a Best Actress category with Meryl Streep, Glenn Close, Viola Davis, and Tilda Swinton together. You’ll likely only get two of them, imo. I had been thinking it would be Streep and Close, but maybe Davis will be substituted for one of them.

    Michelle Williams is an absolute lock for a best actress nom and I think she has a pretty good shot at winning. Giving a great performance as Monroe is likely to play well with the Academy (lots of old white guys). She wants it badly from what I hear and will be pulling out all the stops in her campaign. I also think Keira Knightly has a good shot at getting in. She has previous Oscar cred, she has the glamour factor, she has a meaty, sexy role. Oscar bait. Charlize Theron would also bring some glamour, and I think she looks fabulous in Young Adult’s trailer. But the movie seems more like a dark, subtle comedy, and I don’t think it will play as well with the Academy as A Dangerous Method. But she could get in.

    Now there’s often an ingenue thrown in here – I would choose Felicity Jones over Elizabeth Olsen in that case. Jones’ love story is more accessible and straightforward than MMMM, and, here it comes, Jones is sexier. That will play better with the Academy; I know you’re all hating me for saying it. I think that MMMM will be this year’s Bright Star – aka one the indie critics tried to make happen; but it didn’t have the star power to get to the Oscars.

    One more note on Streep – I’m sold on a nomination but not a win. It feels like too obvious an Oscar push. If the only thing people like about the film is her performance, and alot of her momentum comes from past performances, another actress may be able to overtake her. She already has two Oscars so I don’t know how much they’ll care about her being “overdue.” But, if she pulls off a good campaign, she could have it in the bag.

    A few more thoughts – Best Actor is Brad Pitt’s to lose, and word on the street is he wants it bad. Expect some serious campaigning from Mr. Pitt. He has never won before; Moneyball seems to be a sentimental favorite; and he and Angelina are the King and Queen of Hollywood. Missteps in his campaign will be the only thing to keep him from winning.

    Clooney will be nominated as well, but the Descendants will be another Up in the Air, I think. Seems to be suffering from overblown expectations, and there’s nothing particularly fresh about a family drama. With his nominations last year, George needed something really stunning and different to push him over the top and I don’t think this is it. Michael Fassbender is hot right now and I could see him scoring a nom too; but I prefer Dangerous Method to Shame, just seems more like Oscar Bait to me.

    Supporting actress is Jessica Chastain’s to lose, but she could be hurt by having several movies out. The rest of the field is very murky, needs some more star power. Supporting actor, I’m liking Viggo Mortensen, Christopher Plummer, and Kevin Spacey or other Margin Call actors. Albert Brooks is another good possibility. Plummer, Mortensen, Brooks have the overdue factor, Spacey and Irons have serious Oscar cred and a movie that is peaking at the perfect time.

    And I’m going to fully admit to having seen NONE of these movies so far (will get to some eventually.) But some academy voters will vote without actually watching all the movies so I’m just thinking like one of them ;)

  43. The Great Dane

    One thing Streep has in her favor this year: Her last many nominations have been for movies where she has been co-lead. In Adaptation she was nominated for Supporting, and the lead/focus of the story was Nicolas Cage. In Devil Wears Prada, the real focus of the film was on Anne Hathaway. In Doubt she shared nominations and focus with her three co-stars, even though Viola Davis was barely in it. In “Julie and Julia”, the story focused just as much on Amy Adams. Now: The Iron Lady is all about Streep. That might finally give her an edge to win a third Oscar. If she wins, it will be for that reason. And for the reason that she arguably came 2nd in the voting for all of these previous nominations: She won the Globe (and a lot of critics awards) for Adaptation, Devil Wears Prada and Julie & Julia – and she won the SAG for Doubt. If she loses again this year, she would probably come in 2nd again.

  44. The Great Dane

    One thing Streep has in her favor this year: Her last many nominations have been for movies where she has been co-lead. In Adaptation she was nominated for Supporting, and the lead/focus of the story was Nicolas Cage. In Devil Wears Prada, the real focus of the film was on Anne Hathaway. In Doubt she shared nominations and focus with her three co-stars, even though Viola Davis was barely in it. In “Julie and Julia”, the story focused just as much on Amy Adams. Now: The Iron Lady is all about Streep. That might finally give her an edge to win a third Oscar. If she wins, it will be for that reason. And for the reason that she arguably came 2nd in the voting for all of these previous nominations: She won the Globe (and a lot of critics awards) for Adaptation, Devil Wears Prada and Julie & Julia – and she won the SAG for Doubt. If she loses again this year, she would probably come in 2nd again.

  45. Tess, I missed your post b/c I was writing, but clearly I agree that those “petty factors” do come into play. It is a shame that great performances often get overlooked; there’s only so much room for recognition. The Spirit Awards are where some of the lesser known actors and actresses should be getting their due.

  46. Tess, I missed your post b/c I was writing, but clearly I agree that those “petty factors” do come into play. It is a shame that great performances often get overlooked; there’s only so much room for recognition. The Spirit Awards are where some of the lesser known actors and actresses should be getting their due.

  47. dinasztie

    “Something tells me, though, that Close is still Oscar-bound.”

    I hear you. Something tells me the same, too. Obviously, she’s loved and respected in the community and I still believe she can pull of the win. The key: SAG nomination. She will be nominated for the Globe, I’m almost certain. And they’ll probably even give her the win. They don’t give a shit about the performance, they go for stars and Great Glenn has never won a Globe for a real movie. I think if she’s nominated for Damages as well, they might also think about Albert Nobbs. It’s a fantastic, unbelievable performance. It’s incredibly haunting, especially after you see the movie. I watched it the day before yesterday and I’m still haunted by her.

    If she’s nominated for the BFCA, they might vote for her, I think though that’s not sure at all. However,her win at SAG is 100% once she’s nominated. She’s only won a TV award there and they are actually counting the number of awards. They never give it to you (they gave it to Bullock, I mean). So she will get it if she’s nominated. And that would be awesome. It would give her some heat + her campaign WILL emphasise on “OVERDUE”. She’s everywhere, at screenings, Academy Tributes, Q&As, she’s campaiging and she has lots of admirers.

    And above all: she gives a fantastic performance that should alone get a nomination and a win.

    I love Viola, don’t get me wrong. I just don’t think she will get the Oscar.

  48. dinasztie

    “Something tells me, though, that Close is still Oscar-bound.”

    I hear you. Something tells me the same, too. Obviously, she’s loved and respected in the community and I still believe she can pull of the win. The key: SAG nomination. She will be nominated for the Globe, I’m almost certain. And they’ll probably even give her the win. They don’t give a shit about the performance, they go for stars and Great Glenn has never won a Globe for a real movie. I think if she’s nominated for Damages as well, they might also think about Albert Nobbs. It’s a fantastic, unbelievable performance. It’s incredibly haunting, especially after you see the movie. I watched it the day before yesterday and I’m still haunted by her.

    If she’s nominated for the BFCA, they might vote for her, I think though that’s not sure at all. However,her win at SAG is 100% once she’s nominated. She’s only won a TV award there and they are actually counting the number of awards. They never give it to you (they gave it to Bullock, I mean). So she will get it if she’s nominated. And that would be awesome. It would give her some heat + her campaign WILL emphasise on “OVERDUE”. She’s everywhere, at screenings, Academy Tributes, Q&As, she’s campaiging and she has lots of admirers.

    And above all: she gives a fantastic performance that should alone get a nomination and a win.

    I love Viola, don’t get me wrong. I just don’t think she will get the Oscar.

  49. I do not think Close will be nominated. Albert Nobbs has gotten negative reviews, and although there is some sentiment attached to Glenn Close, her performance is not particularly grabbing and there are just too many other actresses in the mix. The fact that she was left out of the Spirit awards in what really should have been an easy get seems to me like an omen that people are just not “getting” her performance (for lack of a better word).

    I’m almost willing to throw my arms up and say FOR THE LOVE OF CHRIST please just give Meryl her third Oscar so people will quit b*tching about it. People worship the ground she walks on and she is repeatedly referred to as the greatest living actress of all time + she has 16 Oscar nominations and 2 wins (as well as 6 or 7 Golden Globes and 2 SAG awards). But I guess that’s not enough. I’m not disparaging her…there’s no denying she’s a wonderful actress and also a wonderful person, judging by her interviews. But the attitude many on this site exude is that the woman has been criminally overlooked or something, which honestly strikes me as quite delusional.

    Needless to say I haven’t seen The Iron Lady yet, but once Meryl inevitably receives her 17th nomination, I’m guessing she’ll be joined by Viola Davis for The Help, although I do not think she will win. Yes, The Help is a big hit and beloved by all but it was not she who led the film to box-office success a la Sandra Bullock in 2009’s The Blind Side. The fact that Davis plays a borderline supporting role will hurt her as well (like it has hurt Streep in the past with screen-sharing duties in Prada and Julie & Julia). Davis also doesn’t have the filmography or overdue status like Kate Winslet had a couple of years ago.

    Michelle Williams will be nominated for My Week with Marilyn and depending on how much she campaigns (and unfortunately a lot will depend on this, and Michelle isn’t one to whore herself out, usually) I think she may be Meryl’s biggest competition. I’m guessing Charlize Theron takes the fourth spot for Young Adult. The film is being released at just the right time and judging from the all the buzz she has received so far and the critical and commercial potential of the film, I think she will make it. The fifth spot is tricky, but I am just going to go and say Tilda Swinton for We Need to Talk About Kevin, simply because I can’t imagine a voting member of the Academy watching that film and NOT putting her name at #1 on their ballots. She is that good. Olsen’s film has been a bit polarizing for some, so I think she will sit this one out. Felicity Jones just doesn’t seem right. Keira Knightley may get a few votes but I just don’t see the Academy warming up to A Dangerous Method. Ditto to Kirsten Dunst in Melancholia, although she is great.

    Anyways, sorry for the novel!

  50. I do not think Close will be nominated. Albert Nobbs has gotten negative reviews, and although there is some sentiment attached to Glenn Close, her performance is not particularly grabbing and there are just too many other actresses in the mix. The fact that she was left out of the Spirit awards in what really should have been an easy get seems to me like an omen that people are just not “getting” her performance (for lack of a better word).

    I’m almost willing to throw my arms up and say FOR THE LOVE OF CHRIST please just give Meryl her third Oscar so people will quit b*tching about it. People worship the ground she walks on and she is repeatedly referred to as the greatest living actress of all time + she has 16 Oscar nominations and 2 wins (as well as 6 or 7 Golden Globes and 2 SAG awards). But I guess that’s not enough. I’m not disparaging her…there’s no denying she’s a wonderful actress and also a wonderful person, judging by her interviews. But the attitude many on this site exude is that the woman has been criminally overlooked or something, which honestly strikes me as quite delusional.

    Needless to say I haven’t seen The Iron Lady yet, but once Meryl inevitably receives her 17th nomination, I’m guessing she’ll be joined by Viola Davis for The Help, although I do not think she will win. Yes, The Help is a big hit and beloved by all but it was not she who led the film to box-office success a la Sandra Bullock in 2009’s The Blind Side. The fact that Davis plays a borderline supporting role will hurt her as well (like it has hurt Streep in the past with screen-sharing duties in Prada and Julie & Julia). Davis also doesn’t have the filmography or overdue status like Kate Winslet had a couple of years ago.

    Michelle Williams will be nominated for My Week with Marilyn and depending on how much she campaigns (and unfortunately a lot will depend on this, and Michelle isn’t one to whore herself out, usually) I think she may be Meryl’s biggest competition. I’m guessing Charlize Theron takes the fourth spot for Young Adult. The film is being released at just the right time and judging from the all the buzz she has received so far and the critical and commercial potential of the film, I think she will make it. The fifth spot is tricky, but I am just going to go and say Tilda Swinton for We Need to Talk About Kevin, simply because I can’t imagine a voting member of the Academy watching that film and NOT putting her name at #1 on their ballots. She is that good. Olsen’s film has been a bit polarizing for some, so I think she will sit this one out. Felicity Jones just doesn’t seem right. Keira Knightley may get a few votes but I just don’t see the Academy warming up to A Dangerous Method. Ditto to Kirsten Dunst in Melancholia, although she is great.

    Anyways, sorry for the novel!

  51. The Indie Spirits are not relevant this time because they lacked coherency and correlation between categories. So I don’t think Glenn Close being snubbed for that awards show will necessarily be relevant to the Oscar nominations considering Clooney who was also initially viewed as frontrunner was also snubbed. 50/50 got a bunch of noms but JGL got snubbed for Best Actor. There was alot of big, odd snubs by the Independent Spirit Awards and it was kind of haphazard due to recent changes in rules. It is hard to say, Albert Nobbs has been getting both good and bad reviews. J. Edgar got panned but people are not ruling out DiCaprio for a nom. I will still be shocked if Glenn Close gets snubbed by the Oscars but then again the awards race has hardly started but the Indie Spirit Awards seem SO off to me, this year. I am still baffled by their nominations which were disparate from category to category in relation to cast and directors.

    Unless we get a major surprise, I think Meryl Streep will probably be the front-runner. Who knows? Did anybody predict Sandra Bullock would sweep the race for The Blind Side before the Critics Choice Awards set that precedent? I remember most of the hype being centered around Carey Mulligan before the precursors actually happened. The early word on both The Iron Lady and Albert Nobbs seems to be mixed.

    I also don’t think Michelle Williams is a lock.

  52. The Indie Spirits are not relevant this time because they lacked coherency and correlation between categories. So I don’t think Glenn Close being snubbed for that awards show will necessarily be relevant to the Oscar nominations considering Clooney who was also initially viewed as frontrunner was also snubbed. 50/50 got a bunch of noms but JGL got snubbed for Best Actor. There was alot of big, odd snubs by the Independent Spirit Awards and it was kind of haphazard due to recent changes in rules. It is hard to say, Albert Nobbs has been getting both good and bad reviews. J. Edgar got panned but people are not ruling out DiCaprio for a nom. I will still be shocked if Glenn Close gets snubbed by the Oscars but then again the awards race has hardly started but the Indie Spirit Awards seem SO off to me, this year. I am still baffled by their nominations which were disparate from category to category in relation to cast and directors.

    Unless we get a major surprise, I think Meryl Streep will probably be the front-runner. Who knows? Did anybody predict Sandra Bullock would sweep the race for The Blind Side before the Critics Choice Awards set that precedent? I remember most of the hype being centered around Carey Mulligan before the precursors actually happened. The early word on both The Iron Lady and Albert Nobbs seems to be mixed.

    I also don’t think Michelle Williams is a lock.

  53. Actually, Albert Nobbs got pretty good reviews especially from top critics. I hope Close gets nominated she was absolutely incredible.

  54. Actually, Albert Nobbs got pretty good reviews especially from top critics. I hope Close gets nominated she was absolutely incredible.

  55. Meryl was certainly not due to win another NY Critics award which she won just two years ago. The fact that she won so recently may have even gone against her; but apparently the critics were more than happy to honor her yet again. So, due or not due, her win will be unquestionably deserved if she gets the Oscar. It’s a matter of whether the Academy feels she’s finally essaying a role worthy of her talent. By all indications, this is the powerhouse vehicle for her singular abilities and that should be enough to get her that elusive third. In light of the also-rans and the Spirit nominations, it would appear that her strongest contender is only Williams. Hmmm, and that film is not getting good reviews except for performances. So, between Meryl and Michelle, who will the Academy pick? Yup, Meryl for the win.

  56. Meryl was certainly not due to win another NY Critics award which she won just two years ago. The fact that she won so recently may have even gone against her; but apparently the critics were more than happy to honor her yet again. So, due or not due, her win will be unquestionably deserved if she gets the Oscar. It’s a matter of whether the Academy feels she’s finally essaying a role worthy of her talent. By all indications, this is the powerhouse vehicle for her singular abilities and that should be enough to get her that elusive third. In light of the also-rans and the Spirit nominations, it would appear that her strongest contender is only Williams. Hmmm, and that film is not getting good reviews except for performances. So, between Meryl and Michelle, who will the Academy pick? Yup, Meryl for the win.

  57. Rodrigo de Oliveira

    On that matter, Mark Harris’ latest article on Best Actress being a lesser award is a must-read.

    http://www.grantland.com/blog/hollywood-prospectus/post/_/id/38285/oscarmetrics-is-best-actress-a-lesser-award

  58. Rodrigo de Oliveira

    On that matter, Mark Harris’ latest article on Best Actress being a lesser award is a must-read.

    http://www.grantland.com/blog/hollywood-prospectus/post/_/id/38285/oscarmetrics-is-best-actress-a-lesser-award

  59. Tero Heikkinen

    JJ said: “I really don’t want Streep to win because people feel she’s due. That is the worst reasoning for giving an award.”

    -True. It is the worst reasoning (after giving the award for a complete non-talent).

    “The performance should stand on its own.”

    -At least the New York critics seem to think that this DOES stand on its own.

    “No one who wins an Oscar necessarily deserves another one.”

    -What on Earth? If someone delivers the best performance of the year, that MUST be awarded. You said it yourself that the preformance is the only thing that counts. It doesn’t matter if that same person happens to be the best over and over again. Each year should be looked individually.

    ***

    The Great Dane said it best: “One thing Streep has in her favor this year: Her last many nominations have been for movies where she has been co-lead. In Adaptation she was nominated for Supporting, and the lead/focus of the story was Nicolas Cage. In Devil Wears Prada, the real focus of the film was on Anne Hathaway. In Doubt she shared nominations and focus with her three co-stars, even though Viola Davis was barely in it. In “Julie and Julia”, the story focused just as much on Amy Adams. Now: The Iron Lady is all about Streep. That might finally give her an edge to win a third Oscar. If she wins, it will be for that reason.”

    -Very true.

  60. Tero Heikkinen

    JJ said: “I really don’t want Streep to win because people feel she’s due. That is the worst reasoning for giving an award.”

    -True. It is the worst reasoning (after giving the award for a complete non-talent).

    “The performance should stand on its own.”

    -At least the New York critics seem to think that this DOES stand on its own.

    “No one who wins an Oscar necessarily deserves another one.”

    -What on Earth? If someone delivers the best performance of the year, that MUST be awarded. You said it yourself that the preformance is the only thing that counts. It doesn’t matter if that same person happens to be the best over and over again. Each year should be looked individually.

    ***

    The Great Dane said it best: “One thing Streep has in her favor this year: Her last many nominations have been for movies where she has been co-lead. In Adaptation she was nominated for Supporting, and the lead/focus of the story was Nicolas Cage. In Devil Wears Prada, the real focus of the film was on Anne Hathaway. In Doubt she shared nominations and focus with her three co-stars, even though Viola Davis was barely in it. In “Julie and Julia”, the story focused just as much on Amy Adams. Now: The Iron Lady is all about Streep. That might finally give her an edge to win a third Oscar. If she wins, it will be for that reason.”

    -Very true.

  61. I’m not going to root for Streep this year. I’ve been rooting for her for years (especially the last 5(?) nominations since she lost in Adaptation) only to be disappointed again and again. Maybe she’ll win this time if I don’t root for her. :D

  62. I’m not going to root for Streep this year. I’ve been rooting for her for years (especially the last 5(?) nominations since she lost in Adaptation) only to be disappointed again and again. Maybe she’ll win this time if I don’t root for her. :D

  63. The acrtress race this year is so tight that it is scary: Streep, Close, Olsen, Williams, Dunst, Davis… BUT…

    Viola could be considered a supporting performance, that doesn’t help her. Nom yes, win, no (at leading).
    Dunst and Olsen might feel lucky enough to earn their first nom. Their movies have to begin an Awards tsunami to top the 3 main contenders.
    Williams is a previous nominee and playing a film icon, a similar situation – but she ain’t in a likely BP nominee – than Cate Blanchett some years ago, with The Aviator (and she won, playing Oscar legend Kate Hepburn).
    That leaves everything to the big face-off: Streep vs. Close. One is overdue beyond belief, after nearly 30 years of consisting outstanding work here and there. The other one, is waiting for her 3rd Oscar and certainly SHE is movie acting. So, it’ll all come down to the voters’ final choice between giving finally the first or cellebrating Streep’s talent and help her close to the Kate Hepburn phenomenal success. I must add that if Jack has 3, Meryl should, too. But at what price?

  64. The acrtress race this year is so tight that it is scary: Streep, Close, Olsen, Williams, Dunst, Davis… BUT…

    Viola could be considered a supporting performance, that doesn’t help her. Nom yes, win, no (at leading).
    Dunst and Olsen might feel lucky enough to earn their first nom. Their movies have to begin an Awards tsunami to top the 3 main contenders.
    Williams is a previous nominee and playing a film icon, a similar situation – but she ain’t in a likely BP nominee – than Cate Blanchett some years ago, with The Aviator (and she won, playing Oscar legend Kate Hepburn).
    That leaves everything to the big face-off: Streep vs. Close. One is overdue beyond belief, after nearly 30 years of consisting outstanding work here and there. The other one, is waiting for her 3rd Oscar and certainly SHE is movie acting. So, it’ll all come down to the voters’ final choice between giving finally the first or cellebrating Streep’s talent and help her close to the Kate Hepburn phenomenal success. I must add that if Jack has 3, Meryl should, too. But at what price?

  65. what’s wrong with you, people? MOST OF YOU haven’t seen the iron lady. and yes, meryl is brilliant in it. she delivers a performance that deserves awards. and she falls victim to the ‘she needs something more’. she always needs more. and you have no problem with another bullock case. simply because meryl needs to be snubbed. why? because she’s genius and you aren’t? but meryl is great in the iron lady. critics love the performance. harvey will go for it and it could happen. it very well could happen. and yes, she needs a third oscar, because she’s been snubbed for great performances and she delivers another one.

  66. what’s wrong with you, people? MOST OF YOU haven’t seen the iron lady. and yes, meryl is brilliant in it. she delivers a performance that deserves awards. and she falls victim to the ‘she needs something more’. she always needs more. and you have no problem with another bullock case. simply because meryl needs to be snubbed. why? because she’s genius and you aren’t? but meryl is great in the iron lady. critics love the performance. harvey will go for it and it could happen. it very well could happen. and yes, she needs a third oscar, because she’s been snubbed for great performances and she delivers another one.

  67. Streep will win not because she’s overdue but because she plays old and young, frail and powerful, public and private all in one movie. Add a foreign accent and you get a very impressive performance. This is the kind of role that people are voting for.

  68. Streep will win not because she’s overdue but because she plays old and young, frail and powerful, public and private all in one movie. Add a foreign accent and you get a very impressive performance. This is the kind of role that people are voting for.

  69. PaulinJapan

    Albert Nobbs – SPOILER ALERT

    The film lost me the moment Albert Nobbs true identity was discovered by….of all things….. another women dressed as a man. After 30 years successfully hiding her identity, what are the chances of that. You’d think 19th Century Dublin was populated by cross dressing lesbians!!!

    It’s the most ridiculous plot device in an ‘Oscar’ movie since Dances With Wolves hinged on the fact that Costner was responsible for a major battle victory due to a suicidal horse ride in front of the enemy in which a hundred marksmen missed him not once, but twice!

  70. PaulinJapan

    Albert Nobbs – SPOILER ALERT

    The film lost me the moment Albert Nobbs true identity was discovered by….of all things….. another women dressed as a man. After 30 years successfully hiding her identity, what are the chances of that. You’d think 19th Century Dublin was populated by cross dressing lesbians!!!

    It’s the most ridiculous plot device in an ‘Oscar’ movie since Dances With Wolves hinged on the fact that Costner was responsible for a major battle victory due to a suicidal horse ride in front of the enemy in which a hundred marksmen missed him not once, but twice!

  71. Actually, Albert Nobbs got pretty good reviews especially from top critics.

    I’m no critic, not even a bottom critic. But Albert Nobbs is one of my favorite films of the year.

  72. Actually, Albert Nobbs got pretty good reviews especially from top critics.

    I’m no critic, not even a bottom critic. But Albert Nobbs is one of my favorite films of the year.

  73. It’s the most ridiculous plot device in an ‘Oscar’ movie

    Almost as ridiculous as having two of America’s Founding Fathers both die on the 4th of July. How corny! The odds of that happening would be astronomical. John Adams and Thomas Jefferson, and their silly coincidental twist endings.

    Life is full of coincidences. Love and other personal relationships in our lives can seem especially strange twists of “Fate,” bringing the right people together in unlikely circumstances every day.

    Sure, no doubt there were lesbians in Dublin whose paths never crossed, who walked past each other in the street and never even made eye contact. If that’s the kind of plot you like, write that story down. Great idea for a novel — dozens of characters who never meet.

  74. It’s the most ridiculous plot device in an ‘Oscar’ movie

    Almost as ridiculous as having two of America’s Founding Fathers both die on the 4th of July. How corny! The odds of that happening would be astronomical. John Adams and Thomas Jefferson, and their silly coincidental twist endings.

    Life is full of coincidences. Love and other personal relationships in our lives can seem especially strange twists of “Fate,” bringing the right people together in unlikely circumstances every day.

    Sure, no doubt there were lesbians in Dublin whose paths never crossed, who walked past each other in the street and never even made eye contact. If that’s the kind of plot you like, write that story down. Great idea for a novel — dozens of characters who never meet.

  75. Deena Jones’s wig

    “The an actress need a BP nominee argument is absolutely invalid. Hilary Swank won for Boys Don’t Cry with no BP nomination beating out the lovely Ms. Bening who was in BP nominated movie (American beauty). Halle Berry and Charlize Theron also won for movies which were shut out of most , if not all, categories including best picture.”

    Hilary Swank, Halle Berry and Charlize Theron were all FIRST-time winners, in that case you are right, the contender does NOT necessarily need a bp-nod (although it helps) BUT third acting Oscars (especially if that third is in the lead category) rarely (=never?) happen for mediocre films : Jack Nicholson’s As good as it gets and Katherine Hepburn’s The Lion in Winter comes to mind, both received picture, directing, screenplay nominations.

    But we don’t have to examine strictly the rare 3rd acting Oscars. With one (!) exception (Ingrid Bergman for Anastasia), even 2nd (!) Lead Actress Oscars only happened for Best Picture nominees, and to top that, most of these films also received directing and writing nominations/wins, as well :

    1937 – Louise Rainier (The Good Earth)
    1938 – Bette Davis (Jezebel)
    1949 – Olivia de Havilland (The Heiress)
    1951 – Vivien Leigh (A Streetcar Named Desire)
    1966 – Elizabeth Taylor (Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf)
    1967 – Katherine Hepburn (Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner)
    1973 – Glenda Jackson (A Touch of Class)
    1978 – Jane Fonda (Coming Home)
    1984 – Sally Field (Places in the Heart)
    1991 – Jodie Foster (Silence of the Lambs)
    2004 – Hilary Swank (Million Dollar Baby)

    I agree with everybody, who says if there is an actress who can pull off a third Oscar WITHOUT a bp-nod, that actress is Meryl Streep BUT when I’m saying actresses rarely/never win third Oscars (especially if that third time is in the Lead Race) for mediocre films, I’m not stating an opinion, I’m stating a fact based on precedent.

  76. Deena Jones’s wig

    “The an actress need a BP nominee argument is absolutely invalid. Hilary Swank won for Boys Don’t Cry with no BP nomination beating out the lovely Ms. Bening who was in BP nominated movie (American beauty). Halle Berry and Charlize Theron also won for movies which were shut out of most , if not all, categories including best picture.”

    Hilary Swank, Halle Berry and Charlize Theron were all FIRST-time winners, in that case you are right, the contender does NOT necessarily need a bp-nod (although it helps) BUT third acting Oscars (especially if that third is in the lead category) rarely (=never?) happen for mediocre films : Jack Nicholson’s As good as it gets and Katherine Hepburn’s The Lion in Winter comes to mind, both received picture, directing, screenplay nominations.

    But we don’t have to examine strictly the rare 3rd acting Oscars. With one (!) exception (Ingrid Bergman for Anastasia), even 2nd (!) Lead Actress Oscars only happened for Best Picture nominees, and to top that, most of these films also received directing and writing nominations/wins, as well :

    1937 – Louise Rainier (The Good Earth)
    1938 – Bette Davis (Jezebel)
    1949 – Olivia de Havilland (The Heiress)
    1951 – Vivien Leigh (A Streetcar Named Desire)
    1966 – Elizabeth Taylor (Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf)
    1967 – Katherine Hepburn (Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner)
    1973 – Glenda Jackson (A Touch of Class)
    1978 – Jane Fonda (Coming Home)
    1984 – Sally Field (Places in the Heart)
    1991 – Jodie Foster (Silence of the Lambs)
    2004 – Hilary Swank (Million Dollar Baby)

    I agree with everybody, who says if there is an actress who can pull off a third Oscar WITHOUT a bp-nod, that actress is Meryl Streep BUT when I’m saying actresses rarely/never win third Oscars (especially if that third time is in the Lead Race) for mediocre films, I’m not stating an opinion, I’m stating a fact based on precedent.

  77. Tero Heikkinen

    I’m a top critic (not in America), a rarity in these circles.

    Streep gets so much shit on sites like this. Even when she was not in talks last year, Best Actress always seems to get the most heated discussions. I wonder who we will tease next year? I’m not talking about Jorge, cause I think he’s just trolling. No-one can be that shallow.

    Someone said something like Streep should win now so that we could put this 3rd Oscar issue to rest. It’s not ending there, Streep should have 4 by now :)

    If she’s the best then she’s the best, and the best should win every year. Two years ago she was the best, this year is tougher… Last year I thought Bening was slightly better, but I was fine with Portman winning. It’s not like it was a big surprise.

    And I’m honest. Once I’ve seen all the performances I can tell who had the most demanding role, and that person should win. In BA often the showiest role gets the trophy. So Meryl should be the frontrunner now. People put weight on weirdest things. A good example is when Cotillard won. Some said that it hurts her chances being a foreigner. Bullshit. It was a very showy role, no surprise win there. Dujardin is not getting the same treatment, it applies to women. Oh, and that was from a pretty bad movie, so I’m still not buying the Best Actress/Best Picture -thing. I’d say we wouldn’t even talk about that issue if Bullock/Best Picture -connection didn’t exist.

  78. Tero Heikkinen

    I’m a top critic (not in America), a rarity in these circles.

    Streep gets so much shit on sites like this. Even when she was not in talks last year, Best Actress always seems to get the most heated discussions. I wonder who we will tease next year? I’m not talking about Jorge, cause I think he’s just trolling. No-one can be that shallow.

    Someone said something like Streep should win now so that we could put this 3rd Oscar issue to rest. It’s not ending there, Streep should have 4 by now :)

    If she’s the best then she’s the best, and the best should win every year. Two years ago she was the best, this year is tougher… Last year I thought Bening was slightly better, but I was fine with Portman winning. It’s not like it was a big surprise.

    And I’m honest. Once I’ve seen all the performances I can tell who had the most demanding role, and that person should win. In BA often the showiest role gets the trophy. So Meryl should be the frontrunner now. People put weight on weirdest things. A good example is when Cotillard won. Some said that it hurts her chances being a foreigner. Bullshit. It was a very showy role, no surprise win there. Dujardin is not getting the same treatment, it applies to women. Oh, and that was from a pretty bad movie, so I’m still not buying the Best Actress/Best Picture -thing. I’d say we wouldn’t even talk about that issue if Bullock/Best Picture -connection didn’t exist.

  79. BUT when I’m saying actresses rarely/never win third Oscars

    historically, it’s safe to say never.

  80. BUT when I’m saying actresses rarely/never win third Oscars

    historically, it’s safe to say never.

  81. Tero Heikkinen

    Yeah, we like to look into past and see everything in statistics and “rules”, but they change every year. Don’t they?

    And yes, IF there is such an unwritten rule that you need to have the Picture nominated if you wish to win 3rd Oscar, Streep is the kind where the rule does not apply. Everything’s so simple for her, she only has to beat Sophie’s Choice, right? :D

  82. Tero Heikkinen

    Yeah, we like to look into past and see everything in statistics and “rules”, but they change every year. Don’t they?

    And yes, IF there is such an unwritten rule that you need to have the Picture nominated if you wish to win 3rd Oscar, Streep is the kind where the rule does not apply. Everything’s so simple for her, she only has to beat Sophie’s Choice, right? :D

  83. Ryan Adams

    Only Ingrid Bergman won a third (although in supporting) and Katherine Hepburn is the all-time Oscar-fave winning a third AND a fourth AND all four in lead.

    Tero

    4 ? :) No…at least 5 : Kramer vs. Kramer, Sophie’s Choice, A Cry in the Dark, Adaptation and either Doubt or Silkwood. I firmly believe though, that if her performances in ‘Prada’ and ‘Julia’ had been campaigned supporting, she would have 4 by now, although still only 1 in Lead.

  84. Ryan Adams

    Only Ingrid Bergman won a third (although in supporting) and Katherine Hepburn is the all-time Oscar-fave winning a third AND a fourth AND all four in lead.

    Tero

    4 ? :) No…at least 5 : Kramer vs. Kramer, Sophie’s Choice, A Cry in the Dark, Adaptation and either Doubt or Silkwood. I firmly believe though, that if her performances in ‘Prada’ and ‘Julia’ had been campaigned supporting, she would have 4 by now, although still only 1 in Lead.

  85. Tero Heikkinen

    “I firmly believe though, that if her performances in ‘Prada’ and ‘Julia’ had been campaigned supporting, she would have 4 by now, although still only 1 in Lead.”

    I disagree. Academy is not willing to give the Greatest Actress Ever Lived another Supporting trophy. When she has the 2nd Lead in the bag, then anything can happen. And I have said this before, once she has the third, she will get the fourth very soon after – be it Supporting, but 4th anyway.

  86. Tero Heikkinen

    “I firmly believe though, that if her performances in ‘Prada’ and ‘Julia’ had been campaigned supporting, she would have 4 by now, although still only 1 in Lead.”

    I disagree. Academy is not willing to give the Greatest Actress Ever Lived another Supporting trophy. When she has the 2nd Lead in the bag, then anything can happen. And I have said this before, once she has the third, she will get the fourth very soon after – be it Supporting, but 4th anyway.

  87. true, phantom. but, as you say, Bergman’s third Oscar wasn’t for a lead role, and Hepburn’s third was for a role in a Best Picture nominee.

    I took it to mean Tero was making a point about the importance of starring in a BP contender before a third lead actress Oscar is likely to happen. And with that in mind, the exception is not just a historical rarity — the exception has simply never happened, ever.

    (Had Maryl Streep won a Supporting Oscar for Adaptation — or Supporting for Prada & Julia — I don’t think her fans would be pacified and quiet this year. I don’t know if some of them will ever be happy unless she collects 4 or 5 Oscars. — especially if any more of them are Supporting Oscars. Which, as we all know, are made of wood, not gold.)

  88. true, phantom. but, as you say, Bergman’s third Oscar wasn’t for a lead role, and Hepburn’s third was for a role in a Best Picture nominee.

    I took it to mean Tero was making a point about the importance of starring in a BP contender before a third lead actress Oscar is likely to happen. And with that in mind, the exception is not just a historical rarity — the exception has simply never happened, ever.

    (Had Maryl Streep won a Supporting Oscar for Adaptation — or Supporting for Prada & Julia — I don’t think her fans would be pacified and quiet this year. I don’t know if some of them will ever be happy unless she collects 4 or 5 Oscars. — especially if any more of them are Supporting Oscars. Which, as we all know, are made of wood, not gold.)

  89. When she has the 2nd Lead in the bag, then anything can happen… once she has the third, she will get the fourth very soon after…

    see: On Golden Pond

  90. When she has the 2nd Lead in the bag, then anything can happen… once she has the third, she will get the fourth very soon after…

    see: On Golden Pond

  91. “No…at least 5 : Kramer vs. Kramer, Sophie’s Choice, A Cry in the Dark, Adaptation and either Doubt or Silkwood.”

    I would add Out of Africa to that list. Also, I’d bet if Hilary, Sally or Cher had made The River Wild or Marvin’s Room, they probably would have been nom’d.

  92. “No…at least 5 : Kramer vs. Kramer, Sophie’s Choice, A Cry in the Dark, Adaptation and either Doubt or Silkwood.”

    I would add Out of Africa to that list. Also, I’d bet if Hilary, Sally or Cher had made The River Wild or Marvin’s Room, they probably would have been nom’d.

  93. Tero Heikkinen

    About On Golden Pond, Ryan…

    Oscars are a show. They want speeches from people they know and Streep has worked with 50% of Hollywood. Hepburn didn’t attend these festivities at all (at least to accept awards). Once they hear Streep’s speech from Oscar #3, they will be like: “dayum”. And trust me, she can have a 6-minute speech if she wants to. If anything else happens, they will shove that conductor’s stick up his ass and punch the show’s director in the face.

    I’m sure there were hundreds of attendees that silently said “shit” when Bullock won. They only smile for cameras. Now, you may ask, if she has so much support then how come she never wins? Well…

    “Meryl was great, but it was no Sophie’s Choice”.
    -random Academy member

    “Margaret Thatcher? Well, there’s a bitch I like”.
    -random Academy member’s dad

    “Marilyn Monroe? Who? Well, Michelle is haawt”.
    -random Academy member’s son

  94. Tero Heikkinen

    About On Golden Pond, Ryan…

    Oscars are a show. They want speeches from people they know and Streep has worked with 50% of Hollywood. Hepburn didn’t attend these festivities at all (at least to accept awards). Once they hear Streep’s speech from Oscar #3, they will be like: “dayum”. And trust me, she can have a 6-minute speech if she wants to. If anything else happens, they will shove that conductor’s stick up his ass and punch the show’s director in the face.

    I’m sure there were hundreds of attendees that silently said “shit” when Bullock won. They only smile for cameras. Now, you may ask, if she has so much support then how come she never wins? Well…

    “Meryl was great, but it was no Sophie’s Choice”.
    -random Academy member

    “Margaret Thatcher? Well, there’s a bitch I like”.
    -random Academy member’s dad

    “Marilyn Monroe? Who? Well, Michelle is haawt”.
    -random Academy member’s son

  95. unlikelyhood

    Selene – I like many of your thoughts except your first one – the Oscars do not vote based on fashion and glamour. They don’t sit there going, oh wait, do we have enough hot chicks in this category? As recently as 2007, Helen Mirren, Meryl Streep, and Judi Dench were 3 of 5 Best Actress nominees. They go on who has won enough pre-awards. For your scenario, Jones and Olsen and – yes – Williams had better win some pre-something. I think of those 3, only Williams will. If she doesn’t – she’s out.

    What are the three perfs that Sasha means? And may I ask, did any of those perfs – without a BP nomination – have to beat an actress that *did* come from a BP nominated film? I thought a previous post said that the last perf to do that was in 1974 or so – was I wrong?

    So we’re back where we were two months ago. If The Help gets a BP nom, Davis beats Streep. If it doesn’t, all bets are off, but I lean Streep, just cause of the biopic factor.

  96. unlikelyhood

    Selene – I like many of your thoughts except your first one – the Oscars do not vote based on fashion and glamour. They don’t sit there going, oh wait, do we have enough hot chicks in this category? As recently as 2007, Helen Mirren, Meryl Streep, and Judi Dench were 3 of 5 Best Actress nominees. They go on who has won enough pre-awards. For your scenario, Jones and Olsen and – yes – Williams had better win some pre-something. I think of those 3, only Williams will. If she doesn’t – she’s out.

    What are the three perfs that Sasha means? And may I ask, did any of those perfs – without a BP nomination – have to beat an actress that *did* come from a BP nominated film? I thought a previous post said that the last perf to do that was in 1974 or so – was I wrong?

    So we’re back where we were two months ago. If The Help gets a BP nom, Davis beats Streep. If it doesn’t, all bets are off, but I lean Streep, just cause of the biopic factor.

  97. Once they hear Streep’s speech from Oscar #3, they will be like: “dayum”.

    I completely agree. Once Meryl Streep wins her 3rd Oscar, all she has to do to win a 4th one is live past age 70.

  98. Once they hear Streep’s speech from Oscar #3, they will be like: “dayum”.

    I completely agree. Once Meryl Streep wins her 3rd Oscar, all she has to do to win a 4th one is live past age 70.

  99. “Personally I’m getting a little tired of the “second black actress” routine.”
    Same here. I really don get that. If anything her role in The Help is a supporting role.

  100. “Personally I’m getting a little tired of the “second black actress” routine.”
    Same here. I really don get that. If anything her role in The Help is a supporting role.

  101. I really don’t see Viola as a serious contender to win. She was great in ‘The Help’ and it isn’t even clear in that film that she’s the lead. It’s Michelle Williams (who is phenomenal) vs. Meryl Streep (which I have yet to see) the way I see it.

  102. I really don’t see Viola as a serious contender to win. She was great in ‘The Help’ and it isn’t even clear in that film that she’s the lead. It’s Michelle Williams (who is phenomenal) vs. Meryl Streep (which I have yet to see) the way I see it.

  103. If Albert Nobbs was a better movie (which it should have been) Glen Close would be in the running for a Best Actress nomination. Her performance is so subtle and quiet that it almost disappears as quickly as the movie did. The performance is great non the less, but with competition from strong contenders like Viola Davis, Meryl Streep (unseen), Olivia Coleman, Elizabeth Olsen, Michelle Williams, and Tilda Swinton (to name a few), who all star in brilliant movies, Glen Close’s labor of love will be quickly forgotten.

  104. If Albert Nobbs was a better movie (which it should have been) Glen Close would be in the running for a Best Actress nomination. Her performance is so subtle and quiet that it almost disappears as quickly as the movie did. The performance is great non the less, but with competition from strong contenders like Viola Davis, Meryl Streep (unseen), Olivia Coleman, Elizabeth Olsen, Michelle Williams, and Tilda Swinton (to name a few), who all star in brilliant movies, Glen Close’s labor of love will be quickly forgotten.

  105. therealmike

    With Meryl Streep winning and Billy Chrystal hosting it will be a night to remember.

  106. therealmike

    With Meryl Streep winning and Billy Chrystal hosting it will be a night to remember.

  107. Scott (the other one)

    All these endless analyses of what happened in the past with Ingrid Bergamn and Jack Nicholson and Hilary Swank and what was nominated for BP or not and what won critics awards and which critics awards and so on — it is all nonsense. It treats the Academy is some coherent, reasonable, and mathematically predictable group, when we all know that the Academy is made up of a completely random assortment of people and its composition changes over time.

    I firmly belive that every year in Oscar history is unique and the only thing relevant to a person’s chances in a given year is what happened that year and what nominees they are up against, and for what films, that year. whether or not Meryl wins this year will depend on who the other nominees are, for what films, and what is going on in the movie world, celebrity gossip and the culture at large at the time the voters fill out there ballots. What happened in 1975 when Ingrid Bergman won her third Oscar, or in 1997 when Jack Nicholson won his third, have no relevance at all. Those supposed precedents provide absolutely now assistance in determining what will happen in 2012, with different movies and actors.

  108. Scott (the other one)

    All these endless analyses of what happened in the past with Ingrid Bergamn and Jack Nicholson and Hilary Swank and what was nominated for BP or not and what won critics awards and which critics awards and so on — it is all nonsense. It treats the Academy is some coherent, reasonable, and mathematically predictable group, when we all know that the Academy is made up of a completely random assortment of people and its composition changes over time.

    I firmly belive that every year in Oscar history is unique and the only thing relevant to a person’s chances in a given year is what happened that year and what nominees they are up against, and for what films, that year. whether or not Meryl wins this year will depend on who the other nominees are, for what films, and what is going on in the movie world, celebrity gossip and the culture at large at the time the voters fill out there ballots. What happened in 1975 when Ingrid Bergman won her third Oscar, or in 1997 when Jack Nicholson won his third, have no relevance at all. Those supposed precedents provide absolutely now assistance in determining what will happen in 2012, with different movies and actors.

  109. Scott (the other one)

    Oops. THEIR ballots. :)

  110. Scott (the other one)

    Oops. THEIR ballots. :)

  111. John Oliver

    Nick V, your comment concerning Viola Davis was right on, I couldn’t have said it better.

  112. John Oliver

    Nick V, your comment concerning Viola Davis was right on, I couldn’t have said it better.

  113. MikeScott

    I think Dunst should be included in the contender tracker. She has about as much a chance as Elizabeth Olsen at this point and certainly more of a chance than Olivia Colman. I really hope Elizabeth Olsen will get the fifth Best Actress slot but she has lost a lot of steam lately.

  114. MikeScott

    I think Dunst should be included in the contender tracker. She has about as much a chance as Elizabeth Olsen at this point and certainly more of a chance than Olivia Colman. I really hope Elizabeth Olsen will get the fifth Best Actress slot but she has lost a lot of steam lately.

  115. Unlikelyhood – I understand it sounds ridiculous, I really do. But I think the “glamour factor” plays a bigger role than you guys realize. The Academy has to put on a show, it needs ratings, it needs stars. So many things are dependent on the Oscars – the fashion and gossip industries do get a huge boost from these awards. Academy members know they need star power to keep people happy. My actual thought was that the combo of four Close, Davis, Streep, and Swinton would never happen. Three of them is possible but I think unlikely. I could be wrong on that, so if Close, Davis, and Streep do get in, the other two will HAVE to have the name recognition and the glamour factor. Hello Williams and Knightly (or Theron, Dunst etc.) There will be no room for an unknown ingenue then.

    As for your Helen Mirren/Judi Dench/Meryl Streep combo, I’ll say this – Helen Mirren does have the glamour factor, the name recognition, and the Oscar cred. She is a fashion darling and the gossip blogs love her. And Meryl and Judi have serious name recognition and Oscar cred. Davis and Swinton do not have the name recognition with the general public that Streep and Dench do.

    Also, my Best Actress scenario right now is Streep, Close, Williams, Knightley (not Olsen), and Jones. Do not count out Keira Knightley for a nomination, people. I saw Sandra Bullock coming 10 miles away last year.

    Many of you were saying that Viola Davis’ performance could be construed as supporting. If so, I think that really knocks out her chances to win Best Actress. I think she’d be more likely to win for Supporting and her people should push for that. (Hey, it worked great for Jennifer Connelly with A Beautiful Mind). Her only competition would be Jessica Chastain and if voters are too confused about which movie to pick for her, Davis could really win. She has been nominated before, but she doesn’t have the star power for Best Actress if her role isn’t the heart of the movie. Voters will never go for her over Streep, Close, or Williams. Chastain is fairly unknown though so she is fair game.

    I really like the statistics about the Best Actress/Best Picture thing. Goes along with my thoughts on that. If she has already won two Oscars, and people don’t think the film is that good except for her performance, they will look to reward someone else. But she does have Harvey Weinstein in her corner, and the combo of the two of them is potent. Definitely a lock for a nom but still not sold on the win. Actually, not sold on any of them for the win. There’s lots of campaigning left to do.

    As for the posters upset over those of us who haven’t seen the films, I understand why. I haven’t seen any of them, BUT because of that I don’t have an emotional attachment to any of the performances. I have some preferences, of course, but I’m trying to look at the race as dispassionately as possible, from a campaigning perspective.

  116. Unlikelyhood – I understand it sounds ridiculous, I really do. But I think the “glamour factor” plays a bigger role than you guys realize. The Academy has to put on a show, it needs ratings, it needs stars. So many things are dependent on the Oscars – the fashion and gossip industries do get a huge boost from these awards. Academy members know they need star power to keep people happy. My actual thought was that the combo of four Close, Davis, Streep, and Swinton would never happen. Three of them is possible but I think unlikely. I could be wrong on that, so if Close, Davis, and Streep do get in, the other two will HAVE to have the name recognition and the glamour factor. Hello Williams and Knightly (or Theron, Dunst etc.) There will be no room for an unknown ingenue then.

    As for your Helen Mirren/Judi Dench/Meryl Streep combo, I’ll say this – Helen Mirren does have the glamour factor, the name recognition, and the Oscar cred. She is a fashion darling and the gossip blogs love her. And Meryl and Judi have serious name recognition and Oscar cred. Davis and Swinton do not have the name recognition with the general public that Streep and Dench do.

    Also, my Best Actress scenario right now is Streep, Close, Williams, Knightley (not Olsen), and Jones. Do not count out Keira Knightley for a nomination, people. I saw Sandra Bullock coming 10 miles away last year.

    Many of you were saying that Viola Davis’ performance could be construed as supporting. If so, I think that really knocks out her chances to win Best Actress. I think she’d be more likely to win for Supporting and her people should push for that. (Hey, it worked great for Jennifer Connelly with A Beautiful Mind). Her only competition would be Jessica Chastain and if voters are too confused about which movie to pick for her, Davis could really win. She has been nominated before, but she doesn’t have the star power for Best Actress if her role isn’t the heart of the movie. Voters will never go for her over Streep, Close, or Williams. Chastain is fairly unknown though so she is fair game.

    I really like the statistics about the Best Actress/Best Picture thing. Goes along with my thoughts on that. If she has already won two Oscars, and people don’t think the film is that good except for her performance, they will look to reward someone else. But she does have Harvey Weinstein in her corner, and the combo of the two of them is potent. Definitely a lock for a nom but still not sold on the win. Actually, not sold on any of them for the win. There’s lots of campaigning left to do.

    As for the posters upset over those of us who haven’t seen the films, I understand why. I haven’t seen any of them, BUT because of that I don’t have an emotional attachment to any of the performances. I have some preferences, of course, but I’m trying to look at the race as dispassionately as possible, from a campaigning perspective.

  117. It’s funny how some people write “the voters will” do this or that.
    Not even the voters know what the other voters will vote for.
    There’s only one thing for sure: the voters “will” vote for whomever they please.
    Whether millions and millions of people believe that Streep is overdue is irrelevant.
    What the critics believe is irrelevant. What people in this blog believe is irrelevant.
    To a voter only one thing is relevant: His/Her own opinion.

  118. It’s funny how some people write “the voters will” do this or that.
    Not even the voters know what the other voters will vote for.
    There’s only one thing for sure: the voters “will” vote for whomever they please.
    Whether millions and millions of people believe that Streep is overdue is irrelevant.
    What the critics believe is irrelevant. What people in this blog believe is irrelevant.
    To a voter only one thing is relevant: His/Her own opinion.

  119. unlikelyhood

    Selene I suppose I should have clarified that glamour can help because a lot of campaigning can get one a juicy pre-award in the first place. And yes, there’s always at least one hot young thing in any Best Actress race – even if Ellen Page or Carey Mulligan wouldn’t think of themselves that way – it’s a factor. But Page and Mulligan (and Williams last year) did win their pre-awards going into the nominations, that’s all I’m saying. That figures to be especially difficult this year against the likes of Streep, Close, Davis, Swinton, Theron. Could happen, but won’t be easy.

    As for Mirren – you say that now. Prior to the Queen (which is the year I referred to), I’d say 95% of Americans had never heard of her. So Davis could be this year’s Mirren. Close is as beloved as Dench. Anyhoo, in about a month we’ll know the contenders from the pretenders.

    I liked Harris’ column; he’s one of the best writers working this beat. But he leaves out something obvious when it comes to the “junior” status of Best Actressy films, and that’s the fact that the Academy’s favorite genres favor men. Especially war and biopic, which I think are pretty much Two of their Top Three. War favors men (though I look forward to any Lynndie England movie). Biopic doesn’t have to favor men, but if you look at like the Time 100 for the century or any comparable list, you are gonna see a lot more male names than female ones. Drama, loosely defined, may be their favorite genre, so perhaps what Harris is really lamenting is that we don’t have the surfeit of female-centered dramas that we had back in the salad days of Katharine Hepburn or Bette Davis or Liz Taylor or even Barbra Streisand. Yeah, that ship sailed when the great moguls died/retired in the 1960s. I’d like to bring it back too, but it’s not possible when every film is meant to be a commercial for ancillary products.

  120. unlikelyhood

    Selene I suppose I should have clarified that glamour can help because a lot of campaigning can get one a juicy pre-award in the first place. And yes, there’s always at least one hot young thing in any Best Actress race – even if Ellen Page or Carey Mulligan wouldn’t think of themselves that way – it’s a factor. But Page and Mulligan (and Williams last year) did win their pre-awards going into the nominations, that’s all I’m saying. That figures to be especially difficult this year against the likes of Streep, Close, Davis, Swinton, Theron. Could happen, but won’t be easy.

    As for Mirren – you say that now. Prior to the Queen (which is the year I referred to), I’d say 95% of Americans had never heard of her. So Davis could be this year’s Mirren. Close is as beloved as Dench. Anyhoo, in about a month we’ll know the contenders from the pretenders.

    I liked Harris’ column; he’s one of the best writers working this beat. But he leaves out something obvious when it comes to the “junior” status of Best Actressy films, and that’s the fact that the Academy’s favorite genres favor men. Especially war and biopic, which I think are pretty much Two of their Top Three. War favors men (though I look forward to any Lynndie England movie). Biopic doesn’t have to favor men, but if you look at like the Time 100 for the century or any comparable list, you are gonna see a lot more male names than female ones. Drama, loosely defined, may be their favorite genre, so perhaps what Harris is really lamenting is that we don’t have the surfeit of female-centered dramas that we had back in the salad days of Katharine Hepburn or Bette Davis or Liz Taylor or even Barbra Streisand. Yeah, that ship sailed when the great moguls died/retired in the 1960s. I’d like to bring it back too, but it’s not possible when every film is meant to be a commercial for ancillary products.

  121. I think Close will be nominated, but I don’t really think she has a shot at winning. The fact is, Albert Nobbs is not a very good movie and it’s not the kind of movie that is going to resonate with large groups of people. The role itself is not nearly showy or compelling enough to win an Oscar – especially when she’s likely to be nominated against Marilyn Monroe and Margaret Thatcher.

  122. I think Close will be nominated, but I don’t really think she has a shot at winning. The fact is, Albert Nobbs is not a very good movie and it’s not the kind of movie that is going to resonate with large groups of people. The role itself is not nearly showy or compelling enough to win an Oscar – especially when she’s likely to be nominated against Marilyn Monroe and Margaret Thatcher.

  123. Sometimes it is more difficult to be nominated than winning.

    I’m not that confident that Glenn Close will get nominated. But if she is, I would put her as the one to beat.
    More people vote for the win than for nominations.
    It’s easier to get noticed in a group of five instead among hundreds.

    I would not be shocked if Viola Davis, Glenn Close or Michelle Williams failed to get nominated. Only a Streep snub would be shocking.

  124. Sometimes it is more difficult to be nominated than winning.

    I’m not that confident that Glenn Close will get nominated. But if she is, I would put her as the one to beat.
    More people vote for the win than for nominations.
    It’s easier to get noticed in a group of five instead among hundreds.

    I would not be shocked if Viola Davis, Glenn Close or Michelle Williams failed to get nominated. Only a Streep snub would be shocking.

  125. I honestly don’t see how Meryl Streep loses Best Actress Oscar this year.

  126. I honestly don’t see how Meryl Streep loses Best Actress Oscar this year.

  127. Fabinho Flapp

    Streep, I like you so much, but GET OUT HERE!
    It´s Close´s year!!!!!!!!!!!

  128. Fabinho Flapp

    Streep, I like you so much, but GET OUT HERE!
    It´s Close´s year!!!!!!!!!!!

  129. Fabinho Flapp

    And I say, Davis is going for supporting in The Help. And she can win as supporting.

  130. Fabinho Flapp

    And I say, Davis is going for supporting in The Help. And she can win as supporting.

  131. @scott (the other one) – I completely agree with you.

    Mathematics and history will get you nowhere. It’s a popularity contest made up of randoms. From what I’ve heard there doesn’t seem to be many avid movie watchers amongst the members. They make ‘em, we watch ‘em?

    Also, is it just me or does anyone else think that Charlotte Gainsburg was pretty darn spectacular in Melancholia? I thought Dunstan was great and deserves accolades but if it were me…it was like the master and the apprentice.

    Great female performances this year, and great roles as well. Maybe people she go and see them.

  132. @scott (the other one) – I completely agree with you.

    Mathematics and history will get you nowhere. It’s a popularity contest made up of randoms. From what I’ve heard there doesn’t seem to be many avid movie watchers amongst the members. They make ‘em, we watch ‘em?

    Also, is it just me or does anyone else think that Charlotte Gainsburg was pretty darn spectacular in Melancholia? I thought Dunstan was great and deserves accolades but if it were me…it was like the master and the apprentice.

    Great female performances this year, and great roles as well. Maybe people she go and see them.

  133. Matt Neglia

    Where is all the talk for Rooney Mara in girl with the dragon tattoo??

  134. Matt Neglia

    Where is all the talk for Rooney Mara in girl with the dragon tattoo??

  135. I have watced the Young Adult and charlize was superb in it especially in the final breakdown scene, she should get nominated she was far superior than Close Williams and Davies I have watched all the Best Actress contenders to me the frontrunner still goes to Streep followed by Theron, Swinton, Williams and Close, Davies is good but she should go supporting she could easily won there.

  136. I have watced the Young Adult and charlize was superb in it especially in the final breakdown scene, she should get nominated she was far superior than Close Williams and Davies I have watched all the Best Actress contenders to me the frontrunner still goes to Streep followed by Theron, Swinton, Williams and Close, Davies is good but she should go supporting she could easily won there.

  137. Tero Heikkinen

    Davis is not the frontrunner, Streep is. See this video with interview and clips: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFp2SD-AUdw

    “Oscar matters”, says Streep.

  138. Tero Heikkinen

    Davis is not the frontrunner, Streep is. See this video with interview and clips: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFp2SD-AUdw

    “Oscar matters”, says Streep.

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