On Sunday the American Film Institute will announce its awards. They have been giving out a top ten since the first year I began Oscarwatch.com, now renamed Awardsdaily.com. That is significant to me because I know how each Oscar year went down, starting all the way back with Gladiator beating Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. It’s easy to see what a stellar year last year was. And how, with ten slots for Best Picture, it really opened up the possibilities. For instance, if there were ten slots we might be daring to dream that Shame or We Need to Talk About Kevin or Tyrannosaur or Rise of the Planet of the Apes, or Harry Potter might get nominated. Now that we know there will be only as much as voters will put them at number one. Now we’re really dealing with a dumbed down scenario for Best Picture. Now we really do have to look at the films that will most likely hit at number one or number two or three and not films that have an outside shot at best. This is discouraging after the results from last year. Great from an Oscar watching perspective but probably lousy for the Academy somehow, as they try to keep the public’s interest in their albatross of a telecast.
Hint to Academy – you want to get people to watch your show? Nominate Harry Potter for Best Picture. See? Done.
Only three films that won Best Picture did not make it on the AFI’s lists. Slumdog Millionaire and The King’s Speech were deemed international productions, I believe. It will be interesting to see if the Weinstein Co. can get The Artist in there as an American production — maybe that the film was filmed here that might make a difference; it is a French production company that made the film, however. The only film that was made in America by an American director that won Best Picture but didn’t land on the AFI’s list? The Departed. Martin Scorsese kept winning Director but most people thought the film too mainstream and genre-y to win. I have to note, because it is the single best memory of my years watching and chasing Oscar, I knew The Departed was going to win right after I saw it. That same instinct, alas, didn’t serve me so well last year.
Following my own predictions for how I think it might go, always a risky prospect to put those out before people have had a chance to vote – they then have a chance to look over your predictions and think YES or NO. But nonetheless, there are some titles I think are unavoidable. The AFI went for The Social Network and Benjamin Button but weirdly not Zodiac. They might like “safe” Fincher over “daring” Fincher so it’s possible they’ll shut out Dragon Tattoo. I’m gonna bet it makes the list. I can’t really say why yet, of course.
Of the films that stand out, two strong, beautifully made American productions — Bennett Miller’s Moneyball and Alexander Payne’s The Descendants. Both should find a spot on their list. War Horse will probably get in. Hugo. I’ll guess that The Artist makes the cut as it sweeps all of the early awards heading into Oscar season (it will handily win the Golden Globe, you just know it will).
But what “smaller” movies might get in? Might a movie like Rampart or We Need to Talk About Kevin sneak in there? Darker stories, darker themes about a darker America? Or will the uplift rule the day once again?
Either way, here is how I think it might go on Sunday. I’m starting to think Tree of Life is indeed in play after all. It just looks better and better as the year wears on.
Moneyball
The Descendants
Midnight in Paris
Hugo
Beginners
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
War Horse
Tree of Life
Potential spoilers: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2, The Ides of March, Drive.
And here is a look at their past.
Black Swan*
The Fighter*
Inception*
The Kids Are All Right*
127 Hours*
The Social Network*
The Town
Toy Story 3*
True Grit*
Winter’s Bone*
2009
Coraline
The Hangover
The Hurt Locker+
The Messenger
Precious*
A Serious Man*
A Single Man
Sugar
Up*
Up in the Air*
2008
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button*
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon*
Frozen River
Gran Torino
Iron Man
Milk*
Wall-E
Wendy and Lucy
The Wrestler
2007
Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
Juno*
Knocked Up
Michael Clayton*
No Country for Old Men+
Ratatouille
The Savages
There Will Be Blood*
2006
Babel*
Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
The Devil Wears Prada
Dreamgirls
Half Nelson
Happy Feet
Inside Man
Letters from Iwo Jima*
Little Miss Sunshine*
United 93
(NO DEPARTED)
AFI Top 10 Films of 2005
Brokeback Mountain*
Capote*
Crash+
The 40 Year-Old Virgin
Good Night, and Good Luck*
A History of Violence
King Kong
Munich*
The Squid and the Whale
Syriana
AFI Top 10 Films of 2004
The Aviator*
Collateral
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Friday Night Lights
The Incredibles
Kinsey
Maria Full of Grace
Million Dollar Baby+
Sideways*
Spider-Man 2
AFI Top 10 Films of 2003
American Splendor
Finding Nemo
The Human Stain
In America
The Last Samurai
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King+
Lost in Translation*
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World*
Monster
Mystic River*
AFI Top 10 Films of 2002
About a Boy
About Schmidt
Adaptation
Antwone Fisher
Chicago+
Frida
Gangs of New York*
The Hours*
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers*
The Quiet American
AFI Top 10 Films of 2001
A Beautiful Mind+
Black Hawk Down
In the Bedroom*
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring*
The Man Who Wasn’t There
Memento
Monster’s Ball
Moulin Rouge*
Mulholland Drive
Shrek
AFI Top 10 Films of 2000
Almost Famous
Before Night Falls
Best in Show
Erin Brockovich*
Gladiator+
High Fidelity
Requiem for a Dream
Traffic*
Wonder Boys
You Can Count on Me
Read more: American Film Institute’s Top 10 Films of the Year — Infoplease.com http://www.infoplease.com/ipea/A0878236.html#ixzz1fyw0qb6o
Though I really wish Martha Marcy May Marlene would upset. Sugar got in once upon a time; this would be the perfect place for MMMM to make a move.
My predictions:
THE ARTIST
BEGINNERS
BRIDESMAIDS
THE DESCENDANTS
DRIVE
EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE
THE HELP
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
THE TREE OF LIFE
WAR HORSE
“Awards Daily has always been a safe haven for transgenre individuals.”
Ryan, you made me laugh out loud! So much so that a mere abbreviation would not suffice!
🙂
Please, stop with the Planet Earth thing. When Kubrick made 2001, we didn’t even know what our planet looks like from above (they got it pretty close, right?). Malick’s images are quite believeable.
Here’s my problem with those images. They’re from the Hubble telescope (http://hubblesite.org/gallery/album/) . I’ve seen them a million times. They are quite old at this point. When I saw those I thought, ‘Gee why didn’t he manipulate them at least?’ You know, animate them so they weren’t just static photographs. Or animate something just like it, fake slow moving space animations. That would make more sense in a way. It was clear he was going for the whole 2001 thing, but I think he missed. My main problem with ToL is I think it’s truncated. I’ve said it a bunch of times but I was settling in for another hour and it was over. I have no idea about the background of the production but I can’t believe there wasn’t meant to be a Sean Penn half that wasn’t cut for one reason or another. I hope it was shot and not cut before production. I do like Malick. I was a proponent of The New World and loved Days of Heaven from way back. I like his style. So the abrupt ending of ToL actually surprised me.
And I like Scott. He’s got his strong opinions but he’s not like some of the asshats that have appeared at AD this season. I, like Jeremie and Alfredo, mourn the old AD. Maybe it’s spending all its time on twitter.
May I just humbly interject that I love “The Tree of Life” and “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2”, my top two films of the year so far. “Hugo” and “Shame” are also top favorites of the year-end films I’ve seen so far. I found all these movies enormously enthralling, brilliantly executed, and deeply moving.
I mention it only to gently counteract against a (perhaps unintended) tendency towards a balkanization of movie tastes or preferences that evolves (or devolves) as comment threads here turn contentious.
I mention it only to gently counteract against a (perhaps unintended) tendency towards a balkanization of movie tastes or preferences that evolves (or devolves) as comment threads here turn contentious.
Thanks, dfa.
Awards Daily has always been a safe haven for transgenre individuals.
@Jeremie it’s gone!
I’m not sure what the means Ryan. The thing about an Engineering student being button down. My major was fine arts and honestly Tree of Life reminded me of going to a Museum and viewing an artist’s exhibit. I firmly believe that Lubzecki cinematography is breath taking and in many ways reminds me of a Monet exhibit. So very immpressionistic however I still don’t care for the film. I mean as an art major anyone I suppose might say I should be in love with the film because of the expansive artistic element. I love the artistic element but hated the rest. Oh well and really I should be quiet about Tree of Life I mean I’ve already done this how many times before. Sorry.
What happened to my sweet little AD?
I’ve just realized though…I’m not sure how I’m going to rate The Artist for sound when I see it considering it’s a silent film, lol
Ryan, I was referring to his comment about my rating system being technical, lol
Now I do like thought provoking films as well (if this is what you meant by feeling, idk) but those would be more along the lines of Donnie Darko
I’m an engineering student…what do you expect? If a movie makes me feel something, all the better…but it’ll probably never be a film like 2001 or The Tree of Life or There Will Be Blood or Magnolia that does such. Movies that have made me feel (for better or worse) are films such as Forrest Gump, American Beauty, Saving Private Ryan, It’s a Wonderful Life, Good Will Hunting, etc. Most of the time my enjoyment of film comes from the performances and the story…which is probably why I enjoy the classics so much after discovering how great films were when they didn’t rely on visual spectacle and whatnot.
I’m an engineering student…what do you expect?
frankly, I’d expect more from any kind of student.
students’ minds are supposed to be open to discovery; not already buttoned down.
Scott, spend more time on watching films than commenting here. After the HP8-rumba is over, promise me that you will watch more movies, at least those that I “corlissed”. GREAT NEW VERB, BITCHES!!! People would take you more seriously, cause I can see that you are trying. You are willing to broaden your view. You are just young yet, right?
I’m 35, I stuffed myself in movies when I was 15-20 (watched all the classics; and I didn’t have the access as kids today), then it normalised (just saw the goodies). After 25 it’s been 500 movies a year.
I see a lot of my own arrogance in you. I could now be the arrogant one 🙂
I don’t mean anything bad.
Mendes isn’t arthouse. He’s shithouse, mostly. Although I have some hope for Skyfall, and mildly liked Away We Go (that was mostly down to the wonderful Maya Rudolph, though, with assists from Melanie Lynskey and Paul Schneider). Saying you don’t like “arthouse” is an asshole statement because they’re far more diverse than you give them credit for. That said, I don’t worship Malick like many in these parts. Except for Badlands, which is one of the best films ever made.
Yeah, Ryan or Sasha. Check, cause this is going overboard with HATRED.
There Will Be Blood is great, PTA is closer to arthouse than Mendes can ever be.
And who invented this score system: Acting, Script, Visuals, Sound, Editing…? Sounds very technical without almost ANY emotions.
I want to feel. Not just spend 2 hrs in the theater.
BTW, for me to HATE a film is really rare…I’d say the average for all the films I’ve seen is a B+, so me giving Tree of Life a D really says something.
Well Mendes is about as arthouse as I’ll go.
No, I’m not name dropping…did you not read my post of favorite directors on the Richard Corliss page? Though don’t get me wrong, Kubrick isn’t all bad…he’s just been a real mixed bag for me-
The Killing A- (91)
The Shining B+ (88)
Eyes Wide Shut B (85)
Full Metal Jacket B- (82) though the first third is def an A+
Barry Lyndon B- (81)
Dr. Strangelove C+ (78)
Lolita C (74)
2001: A Space Odyssey C- (70)
What you are on? Mendes is hardly arthouse. We need ALL sorts, not just your narrow view. We have to make room for Kubrick’s and Malick’s if we have room for Hitchcock’s, Capra’s, Wilder’s and Hawks’.
Are you just namedropping – with very few names?
This planet has 7B people, we have room for all sorts of arts. I prewer film arts over – let’s say – theater. I will make a movie soon, but you wouldn’t like it, cause it’s a non-budget art house “project” rather than an actual film in your book.
Talks like that hurt people.
Is this the same Scott that is always pimping Harry Potter talking about the shallowness of The Tree of Life? Just curious. Have to love the presumptuousness required to claim people who really liked the movie didn’t comprehend it so are considering it “deep.”
Oh BTW, I’m gonna shit on another “arthouse” director, PTA…There Will Be Blood sucks balls. Yeah I said it, one of the most dry boring pieces of shit I’ve ever seen.
The film industry needs more Hitchcock, Capra, Wilder, and Hawks…not Kubrick’s and Malick’s
Well I think a distinction needs to be made between film and art and there’s very few arthouse directors I can stand, for instance Sam Mendes.
Tree of Life
Acting- 7
Script- 3
Visuals- 9
Sound- 7
Editing- 2
Total Score = 56
“But comparisons to 2001 are not a good thing as that’s perhaps the most over-rated film in the history of cinema.”
You are ON a website where people take Cinema (as an artform) seriously. Everybody is entitled to their opinions, and I try to respect that here. But I think you crossed the line, and are currently raping Jesus Christ in the ass with a cross. Not only that, you came in His Holyness’ mouth. And Jesus swallowed. We will never know if He liked it.
LOL, Robert the only thing Tree of Life made me feel was apathy and “good God, when is this over?”
2001: A Space Odyssey- I suppose one could consider this the greatest style over substance film ever made, but it suffers from an extreme lack of exposition and it’s gotta be one of the slowest paced movies I’ve ever seen. Kubrick was showing off too much and forgot the story.
Acting- 5
Script- 5
Visuals- 10
Sound- 10
Editing- 5
Total Score = 70%
For the sci-fi genre (which I’ve never been much of a fan of anyways) I’ll stick with Inception thanks, it’s a far better film. Actually I’d hardly call 2001 a film, it’s more like an abstract piece of art (now sure, Inception is open to different interpretations as well, but the story is lot more coherant) and ironically if it was meant to be about evolution it almost feels more like a step back in film-making since the majority of it plays more like a “silent film”
The Tree of Life was one of the – if not THE – most expensive “art pictures”. It was risky, but it’s doing fine…
(according to BOM) with a 32M budget:
Domestic: $13,303,319 24.5%
Foreign: $41,000,000 75.5%
= Worldwide: $54,303,319
With BD/DVD/TV sales added, it will make profit.
But comparisons to 2001 are not a good thing as that’s perhaps the most over-rated film in the history of cinema.
Please, stop with the Planet Earth thing. When Kubrick made 2001, we didn’t even know what our planet looks like from above (they got it pretty close, right?). Malick’s images are quite believeable. And it’s only 18 minutes, goes fast as hell.
Malick is American – I love him. You asked me to name some foreign recommendations to you. They are at the Corliss.
“And I would suggest the critics reaction to Tree of Life has almost been Avatar like…so caught up in eye-gasms that they don’t realize the film has neglected the story.”
The big difference for me is that Malick’s visuals aspire to art. Cameron’s visuals in “Avatar” aspire to technology and digital enhancement.
I can’t indict “The Tree of Life” for not having a traditional plot or traditional dialogue because that’s not the movie it’s trying to be. (Unlike “Avator,” which was completely conventional in every way but technology.) As with a lot of art, “The Tree of Life” is puzzling at times, a bit of a head scratcher. It’s elliptical and impressionistic. It doesn’t fit neatly into a box. You can’t explain the “story” or the “point” in a nice one-line Hollywood pitch line to appease the literal-minded. In short, the movie is open to interpretation. It doesn’t want to be a conventional story that hits all its Act I, Act II, Act III plot points on cue, or has everything spelled out for the audience in advance. You can find that with the Harry Potter movies.
And a word on the “style over substance” argument. I think that in the hands of a really excellent director, sometimes the visuals and the style become the substance. The visuals become the text, in other words, not just plot points and dialogue. All I know is that there are visually rich movies like “The Tree of Life” that can move me and make me “feel” much more than a conventional drama with clear plot and dialogue and characters on the screen who try so hard, with their emoting and tears, to make us “feel” something.
AFI ain’t gonna nominate Potter, as it probably considers it a British film… if you look back, they not only avoided The King’s Speech but also the Robert Altman directed “Gosford Park” or “The Last King of Scotland”. And of course, all Harry Potter movies. I would be in shock they give it a spot.
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t hate Malick, he’s made some decent films…
http://www.cosforums.com/showpost.php?p=5507818&postcount=713
http://www.cosforums.com/showpost.php?p=5692175&postcount=250
But I had hoped he’d refined his technique a bit…not gone in other direction to where there’s 30 minutes of Planet Earth images that while beautiful really tempt your patience and make you question if there’s going to be an semblance of a story and if you should even keep watching.
But as you could see from my ratings, I’m not exactly a “Malick fanboy”, I just loved his last one VERY much. I don’t know what clicked, I can’t put it into words, but I know it’s there.
But that’s enough from me defending someone else’s art.
If I rated Kubrick or Scorsese, for example… we would see more praise in general.
I know TToL is not going to win more than Cinematography. I have known this since I saw it.
Anyways, Tero…can you answer my question in the Richard Corliss article? (since you were one of ’em specifically pointing out films without really knowing my taste in movies)
I saw Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close last night and definitely think it has the potential to be a major player. I would be shocked if did not land on the list, in less of course they have not seen it.
Or as others have suggested it’s just an incoherant mess and you are giving the director way too much credit thinking there must be something you’re missing and it’s just too “deep” to comprehend, lol. I mean I’ve gone through a lot of bullshit literature classes and whatnot and I often times wonder if people are just looking too much into something and giving the author, director, etc credit for something that they didn’t consciously place or intend to have such meaning. It’s ridiculous the sort of things you hear suggested in those classes at times.
I can’t see to the future of movies. It’s not even possible that they would start making films like The Tree of Life – only Malick knows how to do them.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UVUXDn6hCY4
Scott, don’t be mean if I, Nolan and Fincher love these Malick’s VERY FEW films. He’s making 3-4 films in the next two years (soon doubling his total) – let’s see if they suck. TTol didn’t suck.
Badlands *** (probably rated higher if I had seen it fresh)
Days of Heaven ****
The Thin Red Line **** (first impression **)
The New World **
The Tree of Life *****
looking at AFI’s previous top 10 I am going to go out on a limb and predict that Bridesmaids makes it. They have proven that they’re not adverse to acknowledging comedy, i.e. The Hangover, Borat…
I first saw The Thin Red Line when I was 22. I didn’t start to like it until I was 30-ish. Somehow it feels like Malick films are too deep, that they require a certain amount of life experience, in order to be understood by young people. I still consider myself quite young.
And I would suggest the critics reaction to Tree of Life has almost been Avatar like…so caught up in eye-gasms that they don’t realize the film has neglected the story.
You really want this to be the future of movies Tero?
How bout the filmmakers just go out with their cameras and shoot a bunch of pretty scenery and/or create CGI images and run this footage for say 2 hours? Let’s throw the characters and dialogue by the wayside, shall we? Dunno about you, but doesn’t sound entertaining to me
Of course I’m being hyperbolic, but I hope to God this isn’t the way of the future for movies IMO, it’d be more like a giant step back…
We don’t need to step back to the pre-sound age, just the Golden Age of Hollywood when story and acting were paramount.
The story comes clearer on repeat viewings, I suppose. When you put the visuals aside a little.
I’ve seen this 8 times now (3 of them in theaters).
And just so you know, it took me a long time to appreciate The Thin Red Line (I love it now), I struggle with The New World (surely I will never like this one). His first two films from the 70’s are easy stuff.
And with only a 78 from the BFCA, Tree of Life probably isn’t even in the game. It’ll get the usual nomination for cinematography and such that Malick films receive, but Best Picture is unlikely…and actually only one prior Malick film has received a BP nom. The Academy doesn’t like him nearly as much as some of you believe.
Exactly Nic…like any other Malick film (though I haven’t seen Thin Red Line…for some reason that one got more Oscar love) the sound and visuals swallow whatever sort of story he’s trying to tell and everything else to where they seem like the quintessential definition of style without substance.
I also think it will be the only Oscar TToL will get, and I’m fine with that. Cinematography/Camera is the real star in the picture, all actors are Supporting.
There is no question that Lybzecki won’t win he’ll even take home the Oscar. But my guess is that is the only Oscar Tree of LIfe will get. It may get a couple more nominations but will only win Cinematography which in essence cheats out some other very good films. You see the technical aspects of a film are supposed to enhance the film not “BE” the film. That’s what happens with the cinematography in Tree of Life, it takes on it’s own Life and exceeds the rest of the film because Malik is so wrapped up in visuals. Yes visuals are important but they should tie into the film and in Tree of Life they are have more of an impact than anything else in the film. They even outshadow a decent performance by Brad Pitt. I’m not a fan of Pitt’s but he gives on hell of a performance in that film and yet he’s almost become a supporting actor to the visuals and not the story or the other characters.
I think the AFI will not include The Artist. It’s a French Production and I don’t see that the American Film Institute can really acknowledge that film whether Weinstein is behind it or not. American means American. But hey anyone can really do what they want and then explain it away. If The Artist can make the list then I would think they might consider making room for Shame and I don’t see that happening.
War Horse
The Descendants
Midnight in Paris
Hugo
Tree of Life
Moneyball
The Help
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
J Edgar
It’s the kind of film that gives you hope that modern cinema can be great, and something new can be brought on the table.
Now, going to put the blu-ray on. My 8th viewing.
I have never seen another film that has this much information within 2hrs and 20mins. The Tree of Life is a STORY in its FULLEST, not the opposite. Just because it’s not straight-forward storytelling, doesn’t mean it’s not great. Sure, I don’t understand the ending, but do I have to? No.
And the Cinematography is the best in years. Lubezki will win, no matter what you guys say. There’s no contest.
Is that what he was trying to portray? Well he sure didn’t execute very well then.
Yeah, a totally unoriginal autobiographical story about the filmmaker’s childhood and his thoughts on loss, love, and grief that has taken the better part of 30 years to come together. Oh that Malick, what a hack.
I’m not even sure I’d give it a cinematography nod, because as noted much of the most visually stunning parts looked to be ripped from Planet Earth
And the score was irritating…Desplat’s work in Deathly Hallows is FAR better.
Please God, NOT The Tree of Life!!!
Just watched it and it’s the biggest load of pretentious existential crap! I’d say this sums it up pretty well…
“This film was awful. Terrible. A waste of time.
I find it ridiculous that there are so many posts defending this film. It seems there are so many people out there who are fully ready to take in pointless stories and label them “deep” (by which they mean “made no sense whatsoever, which must mean its beyond our grasp”)
I can forgive some films that choose form over content but not this. Where it isn’t ripping off shots from documentaries like “Home” (I/2009) and “Planet Earth” and concepts from classics such as “2001”, it is trying desperately to convey some sort of painful story with minimal basic dialogue and endless monologues of pointless drivel. Yes, parts of the cinematography were beautiful, the acting (especially from such young boys) was impressive, yet there was not one SINGLE original idea when it came to the script. There was absolutely no motivation for the viewer to stay glued to the screen. It was more a case of:, “Ooh, this woman is grieving for her dead son, but it doesn’t really matter in the big scheme of things cos’ there were also once dinosaurs roaming the Earth and there are big explosions and…here’s a shot of orange smoke…you figure all this out since I couldn’t be bothered.” Really deep stuff… I actually paid money to see this. Argh. “
I’m confused at how you don’t even mention Bridesmaids, when a cursory examination of their history shows they often find room for a high grossing mainstream comedy film. The Hangover, Knocked Up, Borat, The 40 Year Old Virgin all made their list in their respective years. I think Bridesmaids is a safer bet than The Artist. I think it would be bullshit for The Artist to show up here, just as it was when the ISAs nominated it all over the place. If you’re going to honor only American films, honor only American films. They’ll probably just give The Artist a special recognition on the side, as they did for The King’s Speech.
what about Take Shelter? Excellent reviews, acting, visuals and also tops the spirits noms…has it got any chances? rooting for it to be in!!!
After rewatching Rise of the Planet of the Apes the other night (on an excellent looking and sounding blu-ray) I really hope it can get itself more into the conversation. I’m ambivalent about the Serkis campaign, but the film itself really works on so many levels; it’s comfortably the best mainstream summer movie this year. I agree that if it was a ten-nominee field again, it would be in with a real shot.
For the AFI’s (and indeed for Oscar, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves) I’m tipping Drive to be a spoiler. And, as i said in another thread yesterday, if they pull off Extremely Loud, it will be a serious contender.
The Artist
The Descendants
Drive
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Ides of March (Black horse)
Moneyball
Tree of Life
War Horse
So is Potter eligible or not? If so I’d replace Planet of the Apes from Sasha’s list with it…and if not, then The Artist damn well better not be eligible either!
I’m hoping that based on their comedy track record (Borat, Hangover) and Judd Apatow track record (40 Year Old Virgin and Knocked Up) they go for Bridesmaids. Maybe help get some original screenplay or Melissa McCarthy waves flowing
AFI Top 10
The Descendants
Drive
J. Edgar
The Help
Hugo
Margin Call
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse
(The Artist is FRENCH!)
Off topic: my friend watched EL and IC today and she said it was too Oscar bait, but there weren’t any dry eyes at the theater. She also said the kid is annoying at first, but you get used to it and Sandra Bullock has a scene in the end that will definitely get her a nom.
7 of the last 8 years they’ve listed an animated feature. Cmooooon Rango!
hey sasha. im really looking forward to what you have to say about Dragon Tattoo (especially Reznor’s score). Do you know what the consensus is among your friends (or can you not tell us yet?)
Nice list Sasha, but I’d take out Rise of the Planet of the Apes and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. I think AFI, much like the Academy, will be scared off by Fincher’s uncompromising vision of Steig Lasson’s novel, and as much as I loved Rise and Serkis (who absolutely deserves a Best Supporting Actor nod), I don’t think it’ll make the cut.
I think it’ll go something like this:
The Artists
The Descendants
Drive
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part II
The Help
Hugo
Midnight In Paris
Moneyball
The Tree Of Life
War Horse
The AFI by its own definition, as you indicated, is supposed to list only American films. They stretch this somewhat, but never to the extent that Shame, Kevin, Harry Potter among other British films qualify.
The Artist is a French film, but because it was made in the US and particularly because Weinstein likely pushed hard will find its way on to the list.
I feel really sure that Drive will get in – it’s presence in the precursors so far is enought to justify it.
Wrong Maxim, War Horse isn’t a sure thing if for no other reason then it’s sub-85 BFCA score.
Tree of Life really ought to be nominated for BP at the Oscars. It’s a historical event.
There is nothing probably about War Horse getting in. It WILL get in. And unlike most regional critics AFI will have actually seen it.
Also, I’d say Extremely Loud has a much better shot than Girl with the Dragon Tatoo.