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Oscar Predictions: You Don’t Need a Weatherman to Know Which Way the Wind Blows

Back in 1999, when Oscarwatch.com first began, the highest of priorities was to correctly predict the Oscar race.  There was only one other site, for the most part, that predicted the Oscars – Tom O’Neil’s GoldDerby.com.    Tom’s site collected mostly film critics who lined up to give their Oscar predictions every year.  The LA Times did theirs, with the help of Kenneth Turan, and no doubt the lot of you did your own Oscar predicting.  My aim as an Oscarwatcher was to understand the process.  If you ever read early interviews with me, when Variety and other outlets asked me why I started my site, I would always say that I wanted to find out why, for instance, Citizen Kane didn’t beat How Green Was My Valley,when the former is now considered, by many, to be the best film of the year — in fact, one of the finest films of all time.

I don’t know if you asked Oscar voters which film they thought was the best film ever made if they’d answer Citizen Kane.  I know that film critics write film history.  Oscar voters don’t.   And now I know full well why Citizen Kane wasn’t ever going to win the Oscar.  It took me a few years, a few heartbreaks, a few happy surprises to see how things go.  And by now, I can feel the tide as it shifts and I can see what’s coming.  I think people assumed last year that when The Social Network lost the Producers Guild that it was a big surprise.  The big surprise last year was how many awards it did win leading up to the race: no one thought it could ever win Best Picture.  David Poland proclaimed The Social Network.  Dave Karger, our predicting head guru, provisioned The King’s Speech instead.  This race was going to be a return to the conventional “Oscar movie” and an ice cold, brilliant piece of work by David Fincher would not.  But then it started winning shit? Not only did it win everything but it won where it wasn’t supposed to, sweeping the NBR and the Globes.  At some point it went from no way, to maybe? To oh my god, could it? Might it? Yes, it might! Yes, it can! Yes, it will! It can’t lose!  So then you have people who folded their arms in front of them and now say “I knew it would never win.”  “I never fell for it.” “It was always going to be the King’s Speech.” “Oscar voters aren’t critics.”  On and on it went, the weathermen taking credit for the storm they saw coming, and those explaining away how they could have missed those clouds on the horizon, the temperature shift in the air, the signs.

Somehow, in this silly little game we play, the credit for being right matters.  If you call yourself an Oscar predictor you’re supposed to be able to separate your own emotions from the act of predicting.  What threw me off about last year’s race was that the Oscar voters had been more ballsy in the years leading up to last year.  It really did feel like things had changed, or rather, changed back to how they voted in the 1970s.  But ask anyone  why The Departed won (they owed it to Scorsese), or why the Coens won (they owed it to the Coens) or why The Hurt Locker won (they wanted to award a woman) and you’ll get the same overriding opinion about these voters: if given the choice, conventional films win the day.  Bleak, beautifully written, insanely well-directed movies like The Departed, No Country and The Hurt Locker and yes, The Social Network are the flukes.  The King’s Speech, Slumdog Millionaire, A Beautiful Mind, Million Dollar Baby, Titanic — those are the norm, the always predictably fair skies in California that reassure us we can face another day.  It’s always sunny, it never rains and people are good, love stories win out, and happy endings? We eat those for breakfast, lunch and dinner.  Those are the movies that give us the clear skies, the uptick, the soothing.

We used to have a saying around here that went like this, “The Oscars are about who WILL win, not who you want to win.”  And believe me, had it not been for that run of great movies — a fleeting moment of greatness in an otherwise ongoing parade of temporary, fleeting glory?  I would never have been lulled into believing things could ever change.  Nonetheless, after so many years of this, it is less interesting than it ever has been to predict how “they” will vote.  Why, because ultimately, I’ve stopped caring about how “they” will vote, because I’ve very nearly stopped caring what “they” think.

But drill down a little deeper and you come back to, “it’s not a ‘they’ so much as an ‘us.'” The Oscar voters reflect public opinion with enough of an injection of critical acclaim so as not to be the People’s Choice awards.  They are a step above, perhaps, but they are still a consensus vote of a great many.  The point I’m trying to make here is that being an Oscar predictor is about as important as being a weatherman.  You can make a prediction that it’s going to rain today based on a few things you know about the weather, and by looking at the sky, and by stepping outside and holding out your hands to feel the raindrops starting to fall.  If it rains, and you’re right, others around you will say, “wow, you predicted it was going to rain and it rained.”  But at the end of the day, you’re still just a weatherman. The weatherman knows when to bring an umbrella, but he can’t see a cloudy day and take it personally.  The weatherman can’t be blamed for the rain or claim credit for a southerly breeze.

I remember when Kris Tapley stopped caring.  I remember the year.  He’d predicted, by some fluke, that Letters from Iwo Jima would win Best Picture. He actually thought it might go that way.  Making that call, taking that risk would have paid off big time if he’d been right. After that, he made a decision that he would see this as a game to be played to win.  And now, he’s successfully divorced his own personal opinion from his predictions.  Some still can’t do that. Jeff Wells is someone who can’t.

I’ve happily nestled back into who I was when this all began, someone who saw the Oscars as a game, and someone who loves the good movies with a fervor, an unending passion for those who reach for something different, something uncomfortable, something true.

In many ways, The Artist is one such film.  It is daring in its own way, perfect in its execution, but in another way, it is everything we’ve ever known about the movies gathered into one wide embrace.  All it asks of you is that you agree to watch a silent, black and white movie.  If you do, you will be given back what you’ve always wanted from the movies: love and a bit with a dog.  It’s every cinematic trope pieced together in a montage.  Moreover, it is very likely every Academy member’s nostalgic bliss.  See, this is how it used to be before things got ugly.

A better film is Martin Scorsese’s brilliant masterpiece, Hugo.  Hugo towers over the Artist in every way.  They are opposites – one is by a French filmmaker about American film, and the other is about a French filmmaker made by an American.  Hugo is Scorsese’s most autobiographical film to date — and yet the only thing people can talk about is the money.  Damned if you do, damned if you don’t, The Artist will succeed because it cost nothing to make.  Like The King’s Speech, like The Hurt Locker, the Oscars are now about rewarding low budgets.  Yet to make the kind of movie Hugo is, or the kind of movie Dragon Tattoo is, you need a lot of money.

“You always used money to …”
“Buy things.”

For me, a good movie is a good movie is a good movie; I don’t think about the money unless the movie is bad.  And Hugo is wonderful.

But The Artist is a formidable winner, to my mind.  So I will not protest its victory.  Were this a perfect world we would have many groups that thought differently and offered up different winners so that it was, at the very least, an exciting race.  But the Oscars, they’re like the weather. They are predictable up to a point but happily unpredictable in the same way a warm day in January feels like a blessing.  They happen to us.  We react to them.  But there isn’t a whole lot you can do except get out your umbrella and prepare for rain.  Or maybe we’ll get lucky. And what’s coming next isn’t something we could see looming on the horizon.

The easiest and safest way to avoid ridicule is to predict how the general consensus are predicting. You will never get the flukes right but you will never be called “clueless” or “lame” for getting it wrong.  This is how most people predict, and I dare say it’s how most people vote.  One of the reasons voters keep voting for the same thing is the combination of not wanting to look stupid and the mistaken notion that because something is already winning stuff that somehow makes it more inherently valuable.  Of course, it is more valuable in that people seem to agree that it’s “the best,” be that the critics idea of the best (Social Network) or the general public/industry’s idea of best (King’s Speech). An experiment was done on human nature where random people were asked which cup of coffee they preferred.  They didn’t know that all three cups of coffee were the same but because they were told one was more expensive than the other two, most of the people tested invariably believed that the one that cost more was “better.”

Therefore, just by winning the Producers Guild, a major award, that automatically tags the Artist as the more expensive cup of coffee.  And from here on out, it can’t lose.  It will probably win the DGA, which makes Michel Hazanavicius the first director since 1968 whose film won the musical/comedy for Best Picture at the Globe and then went on to win the Oscar for Picture and Director; he really needs to win the DGA to win the Oscar.  It’s easy to get caught up in the trauma of last year and think that Oscar voters will award a different director — like Martin Scorsese, for instance — or even Alexander Payne.  But you can feel the undertow pulling down when a sweep is afoot — and the same way Rob Marshall won the DGA (but lost the Oscar), Hazanavicius is most certainly going to win the Directors Guild award.

Next, the Screen Actors Guild award, by some miracle, might decide to award both Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer — but then give their ensemble award to The Artist, thereby sealing the deal that not only will the Artist win Best Picture but it might sweep.  Of course, the King’s Speech holds the record for the least number of Oscar wins (4) for a film with 12 nominations.  Even Gladiator won 5.  That seems to indicate that there was sufficient blowback among the ranks.  Will The Artist have similar blowback or will it win as many as Slumdog Millionaire won, which was 8 out of the 10 Oscars it was nominated for?

Is The Artist Slumdog or is it Chicago? It is already following Chicago’s pattern more so than Slumdog’s except at the box office. It won musical/comedy at the Globes, though someone else won Director (Slumdog took both).  Chicago won the PGA, the DGA and the SAG – Slumdog won all of those too.  Chicago split the house and barely walked away with Best Picture at the Oscars, where The Pianist (rightly) stole its thunder in the final act.

Either which way, one is always torn between predicting odd picks for the hell of it, and predicting what the general consensus dictates. I’ve never been one to hide behind the opinions of many.   My nature is to resist that urge, to expect the impossible to become possible, to get caught up in the dreaded wishful thinking.   Therefore, as I give you my predictions here for the nominations I am playing the role of the weatherman – these aren’t what I want to happen, but what I think WILL happen.  Bundling up in a practical jacket is what a reliable weathergirl does.

And you, dear readers, don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.

My Oscar Nominee Predictions:

Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
The Help
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Moneyball

If there was 8 – one of these….
War Horse
Bridesmaids
Drive
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Actor
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
George Clooney,The Descendants
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Leonardo DiCaprio, J Edgar

Alternates:
Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Demián Bichir, A Better Life

Actress
Meryl Streep,The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
Viola Davis, The Help
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk about Kevin
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs

Alternates:
Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Supporting Actor
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Albert Brooks, Drive
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior

Alternate:

Patton Oswalt, Young Adult

Supporting Actress
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Shaileen Woodley, The Descendants
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Berenice Bejo, The Artist

Alternate

Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Carey Mulligan, Drive/Shame

Director
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Michel Hanazavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne,The Descendants
David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris

Alternates:
Tate Taylor, The Help
Steven Spielberg, War Horse
Bennett Miller, Moneyball
Nicolas Winding Refn, Drive

Original Screenplay
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Kristen Wiig, Annie Mumolo, Bridesmaids
Diablo Cody, Young Adult
Asghar Farhadi, A Separation

Alternates:
Will Reiser, 50/50
JC Chandor, Margin Call
Tom McCarthy, Win/Win
Mike Mills, Beginners

Adapted Screenplay
Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian, Stan Chervin, Moneyball
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxton, Jim Rash,The Descendants
John Logan, Hugo
Tate Taylor, The Help
Steve Zaillian, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Alternate:
George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon, The Ides of March

Editing
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Artist
Moneyball
The Descendants

Alternate:
Drive

Cinematography:
Guillaume Schiffman, The Artist
Emmanuel Lubezki, Tree of Life
Bob Richardson, Hugo
Jeff Cronenweth, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hoyte Van Hoytema, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Alternate:
Janusz Kaminski, War Horse

Art Direction:
Hugo
The Artist
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier Spy
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
Midnight in Paris

Alternate:
Tree of Life

Sound Mixing
Hugo
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Super 8
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
War Horse

Alternates:
Pirates: On Stranger Tides
Transformers

Sound Editing
Drive
Fast Five
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol
Super 8

Alternate:
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers

Costume Design
The Artist
The Help
Harry Potter
Hugo
My Week with Marilyn

Original Score
Ludovic Bource, The Artist
Trent Reznor/Atticus Ross, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
John Williams, War Horse
Howard Shore, Hugo
Thomas Newman, The Help

alt:  Alexandre Desplat, Extremely Loud Incredibly Close

Foreign Language Film (submissions)
A Separation (Iran)
In Darkness (Poland)
Pina (Germany)
Footnote (Israel)
Warriors of the Rainbow: Seediq Bale (Taiwan)

Documentary Feature
Project Nim
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Buck
We Were Here
Undefeated

Alternate:
Pina
Semper Fi: Always Faithful
Under Fire: Journalists in Combat

Animated Feature
Rango
The Adventures of TinTin
Kung Fu Panda 2
Winnie the Pooh
Cars 2

Alternate:

Puss in Boots

Visual Effects
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Hugo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
The Tree of Life
Captain America

Makeup
The Artist
The Iron Lady
Hugo

Song
The Living Proof, Mary J Blige, The Help
Pictures in My Head, Muppets
Life’s a Happy Song, Muppets
Lay Your Head Down, Sinead O’Connor
Hello Hello, Elton John Gnomeo and Juliet

 

276 Comments on this Post

  1. Sasha, Drive’s score was deemed ineligible. I hope Jane Eyre is nominated for Dario Marianelli! and it’s almost a lock in for Costumes. Not sure where you got ‘My Week with Marilyn – I don’t think it even got a Costume Guild Nom.
    I hope that song from Albert Nobbs in nominated! I actually really like! Glenn Close can get her Oscar there ;)

  2. Decent predix. I do think Theron will steal that last spot from Close, though.

  3. @Sasha Stone If there was 8 – one of these….
    War Horse
    Bridesmaids
    Drive
    Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

    How come Harry Potter’s not on the BP list?

  4. Robert A.

    “@Sasha Stone If there was 8 – one of these….
    War Horse
    Bridesmaids
    Drive
    Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

    How come Harry Potter’s not on the BP list?”

    Because she doesn’t think it’s going to get nominated. And she’s right.

  5. I’m sorry but I think The Artist was the absolute best film of last year, it was fantastic all around, Hugo was great but the first act, that relied only on Asa Butterfield and his story arc felt sorta flat and a bit uninteresting for me, of course later it turned fantastic but for that that part of the film downgrades it to second

  6. Also, Sasha, have I ever told you and Ryan how amazing you both are?

  7. “A better film is Martin Scorsese’s brilliant masterpiece, Hugo. Hugo towers over the Artist in every way.”

    I completely disagree with this statement. And apparently mostly everyone else does as well.

  8. @SC8Official (1) The Academy snubbed Harry Potter DH 2 at all those stat/city critic awards. (2) It’s a sequel (3) It’s the highest grossing film of the year (4) Sequels did better better than major films at the box office (5) It’s more popular with the public than it is with critics. (6) It made over a billion dollars (7) it’s a british film (8) it had possibly more reviews and votes than any film tthis year. (9) It’s a summer movie (10) It had young actors.

  9. @SClub88Official

    Because there is no reason to pick it at this point, since it has been ignored by virtually all the precursor awards. I don’t even think it’s part of the conversation any more. It’s a shame, since it would probably make my top ten list of the year, but that’s just the way it is.

    I’m really hoping some sort of miracle happens and Hugo pulls off a win. At this point, the chances of that happening are almost zero, but I can still hope!

  10. Tintin can’t be nominated for VFX because it’s not one of the 10 finalists.

  11. BBBerlin

    “All it asks of you is that you agree to watch a silent, black and white movie. If you do, you will be given back what you’ve always wanted from the movies: love and a bit with a dog.”

    OK, you’re disillusioned and maybe pissed off, but you’re still one of the best reads of the season. Cheers, Sasha!

  12. Random out-of-the-blue question here, but are the Oscar nominations in (around) 30 more hours?

  13. @Robert A cause it was snubbed out of those BP nominations at all those state or city critic society awards (even if it had possibly higher grades, votes, and more reviews than any film this year?

  14. Also, isn’t there a new rule that only a maximum of two songs from one movie can be nominated?

  15. “A better film is Martin Scorsese’s brilliant masterpiece, Hugo. Hugo towers over the Artist in every way.”

    I agree with you there, Sashi. I think Hugo and Dragon Tattoo, in my opinion, are the two films that surpass The Artist on every way. Better acting, music, editing, cinematography (especially Hugo!), screenplay (by a mile), etc… A film like The Descendants is better than Artist in what it tries to do, but not as a whole, for example.
    In terms of your predictions, I think you shouldn’t count out Thomas Newman for The Help in the Score category. That’s the one category where I can see them rewarding a film they love so much, and the Music branch is such a clusterfuck…
    The rest of your predictions, besides Actress where I’m SURE Rooney will be in seeing the guild support for TGWTDT, are great and right on the money, as always.

  16. Lucas Prata

    I think Harry Potter is definitely getting a makeup nod, and probably winning it. C’mon, it’s the best makeup of the year.

  17. Why did I call you Sashi? fuckin’ keyboard (Sashi sounds lovely, btw)
    I just want to clarify that when I said guild support for Dragon Tattoo, I was talking about DGA,PGA,WGA, Costume and Art Directors guild, MPSE, CAS and not just about SAG. In case you got confused or something :D

  18. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    Greg Y,
    5:30 a.m. PT Tuesday morning. — more like 42 hrs from now.

  19. @Lucas Prata was there any HP film that was ever nominated for Best Makeup at the Oscars.

  20. Jake G.!

    War Horse will get nominated for BP! Dont doubt the film!!!

  21. Patrick R

    Loved The Artist and I love the idea of a silent film winning Best Picture for the first time since the first Awards back in 1927. Sentimental feelings aside however, it’s a great treat for the moment that stays true to the era that it honors, but the storyline is nothing new. It’s A Star is Born meets Singing in the Rain. Hugo IS the best pic, and the one film from the whole year that I could truly see standing the test of time.

  22. ahh! Ryan you scared me for a second! I thought you meant 7:30 Pacific which would be 9:30 for me meaning I would miss them!

    but it’s 5:30am Pacific which is 7:30am Central and 8:30am Eastern.

  23. Here are my predictions, they are slightly dated (no foreign language film update), but final :
    http://www.awardscorner.blogspot.com/2012/01/probably-final-oscar-predictions.html

    Bottom line :

    12 – Hugo
    10 – The Artist
    8 – The Help
    7 – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo / Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II
    6 – The Descendants / War Horse / The Tree of Life
    5 – Midnight in Paris
    3 – Moneyball / My Week with Marilyn / The Iron Lady / Albert Nobbs

  24. RIOBALDO1

    ..THE ARTIST will win …The Oscar,..but im not sure it will get SAG,that might go to THE HELP..VIOLA DAVIS..hmmm..she’s good,but still young and she can wait..MERYL on the other hand hopefully will get her very well deserved third academy award..and if theres any justice in this world,then that fith place will be for GARY OLDMAN……on tuesday will know that for sure..

  25. Did you knowingly leave off Tree of Life and Malick off of Pic and Director, even alternates?
    Malick will be nominated by the director’s branch.

  26. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    sorry Nichola, I’ll fix that.
    Chicago time here for me.

  27. Profile photo of Sasha Stone

    “Did you knowingly leave off Tree of Life and Malick off of Pic and Director, even alternates?
    Malick will be nominated by the director’s branch.” I think Kris Tapley is predicting Malick – that’s totally great. I would not complain. I don’t see any sign of that happening though. But what do I know?

  28. Profile photo of Sasha Stone

    But p.s. yes I “knowingly” left off Malick.

  29. Sasha I love your articles, but don’t you think you’re even the slightest bit biased against movies with happy endings? It happens sometimes in real life, you know …. a movie doesn’t have to be “bleak” to be great. The Hurt Locker and No Country are two of my favorite movies of all time, but that doesn’t mean I don’t think A Beautiful Mind is great too … and for some reason, a lot of people on this site would attack me for saying that. Notice that the “ballsy” movies you mentioned (Departed, No Country, Hurt Locker, Social Network) are all depressing. And frankly, 2006 belonged to Little Miss Sunshine – in many more ways than one vastly superior to The Departed.

    In any case, thanks for the read!

  30. “The Academy snubbed Harry Potter DH 2 at all those stat/city critic awards.”

    The Academy doesn’t vote for those…. the critics do.

    Why do I bother?

    Also Ryan, 7:30 what time zone?

  31. Sasha, you put 3 Muppets songs. Wasn`t there a new rule telling that a film can only get a maximum of 2 songs nominated?

  32. Nevermind, I saw your edit Ryan. I’m freaking out over here because I have to work until 6AM Mountain time. So I really want to know if I will get to see these or not.

    Are we sure it’s gonna be at 5:30 Pacific time? Also what channel are they gonna be on. My girlfriend and I love to watch these and really don’t want to watch on a laptop.

  33. Robert A.

    “And frankly, 2006 belonged to Little Miss Sunshine – in many more ways than one vastly superior to The Departed.”

    Ugh! No. Little Miss Sunshine curdled my blood. And I really like The Artist, so it’s not as if I only respond to “bleak” movies, although it’s true that I tend to prefer the darker and more hard-edged sort of film.

  34. Profile photo of Sasha Stone

    Sasha, you put 3 Muppets songs. Wasn`t there a new rule telling that a film can only get a maximum of 2 songs nominated?

    What do you guys think will get nominated for song? Someone give me a good list and I’ll put that up. It’s not my best category.

  35. @Craig Z. Maybe he meant to put critics

  36. “Hugo is Scorsese’s most autobiographical film to date”

    Hey Sasha, when you get a chance, you should really check out Mean Streets. Or Who’s That Knocking At My Door.

    Or maybe just turn down the hyperbole a little. And this is coming from someone who loves Hugo and hopes it wins.

  37. Profile photo of Sasha Stone

    @Alex, I’m not biased against them – I love movies with happy endings too. But it’s not a requirement for me. I also love movies that illuminate how bleak the human experience is. I picked three favorite films this year, two of the three have happy endings: Hugo and Rise of the Planet of the Apes. One does not, the wonderful Fincher film, of course.

  38. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    nominations announced Tuesday morning
    5:30 LA
    7:30 Chicago
    8:30 NY
    11:30 Rio

    This is me at 7:20.

  39. Profile photo of Sasha Stone

    Why did I call you Sashi? fuckin’ keyboard (Sashi sounds lovely, btw)

    That’s okay! Many in my family call me that. :-)

  40. It`s always such a tough category to predict. Put Captain America. Whenever I have a doubt, I put Alan Menken.

  41. Adam Lewis

    Sasha, am confused by the statement, “Is The Artist Slumdog or is it Chicago? It is already following Chicago’s pattern more so than Slumdog’s except at the box office. ”

    Do you mean The Artist will not make much money because Chicago made over 180 at the US box-office. Or are you saying it will be a slow build to box office success.

    Still don’t understand the passion for HUGO but am glad people are passionate about some films this year (rather bland year IMHO).

  42. SClub, I doubt that. He has made this mistake many times before. I don’t think he really understands what the Academy is. Oh well, we were all new once.

    Ryan, I guess my timezone isn’t even worth mentioning :(

  43. Sasha, I see you’ve got Hugo and The Artist tying at 11 nominations each. I really rather hope Hugo pulls out ahead. It would great to see it grab the headlines on Tuesday, even if The Artist is unstoppable to win.

  44. Of course The Artist is not making 180 million dollars. Chicago was a popular Broadway show, the 3 lead roles were played by 3 big movie stars… and in the end, it was not black and white or mute.

  45. “THE HELP..VIOLA DAVIS..hmmm..she’s good,but still young and she can wait”

    lol no, she’s ANCIENT by Hollywood standards.

  46. Thanks, Ryan. Does anyone know of a stream that can play on an iPhone? Don’t think I’ll be home then, so that’s the best I can do…

  47. John I also hope that Hugo gets more nominations. Just for headlines sake. Something along the lines of “Hugo leads way with __ nominations!”

  48. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    Or maybe just turn down the hyperbole a little.

    Tell Marty to dial it down too.

    Martin Scorsese: I find it interesting when people see parallels with my life in the films I make. The parallels with Hugo himself seem obvious, particularly in relation to my friendship with Michael Powell and my involvement with film history. And the truth is that I see aspects of myself in many of the characters.

  49. @ Craig Z

    It could be 13 if they had properly campaigned Ben Kingsley, but I think it will be 12 in the end.

  50. JP,I was thinking 12 was possible but then again I don’t really understand the sound catagories. Can somebody who knows better than me tell me if it has a chance being nominated for both?

  51. IMDB will stream the Nominations Announcement this year, I thought it might be important information. Also Craig Z, I think it is live on CNN every year, if you prefer watching it on TV.

    By the way, am I the only one who 100% expects Ben Kingsley in the supporting actor category for Hugo ? That category is all over the place, I think Kingsley will sneak in, his part is iconic and in a film that is widely considered a masterpiece.

  52. My predictions are very similar to yours Sasha. There are only two things which I think you’ve got wrong: Harry Potter for Costume Design and the disparity between your picks for Sound Mixing and Editing – they’re normally a lot closer than that. But I can’t argue with your other choices – even A Separation for Original Screenplay.

  53. I’m not allowing myself to get my hopes up for a Kingsley nomination as much as a wish…..

    Does Hugo have a chance at Song?

  54. @ Craig Z

    Are you referring to Hugo in relation to the sound categories? I’d say it has a good chance at being nominated for both.

  55. Adam Lewis

    I know this is folly but I am keeping War Horse and Spielberg on my predictions.

    GULP!

  56. Yeah Paddy that’s what I meant. Sorry if I’m not clear. I’m more than a little hung over.

  57. Great predictions and a fabulous article Sasha.

    For my own take, have a look at the link below.

    http://fightapathyordont.com/?p=2223

    For what it’s worth, I’m so rooting for Bridesmaids to make it in to BP now…. And for Dragon Tattoo to be a major player x

  58. Pierre de Plume

    I, too, think Ben Kingsley has a shot at supporting actor. Statistically, someone who’s won or has been nominated before has a better chance of getting nominated again.

  59. Ryan, Scorsese may relate to the characters, but calling an John Logan-penned adaptation of a novel (especially one that takes place 80 years ago) more autobiographical than something like Mean Streets, which Marty wrote himself and is legitimately about his neighborhood and people he grew up with? Come on.

    Hugo is a very PERSONAL film. But it’s not autobiographical. Poor word choice.

  60. Sasha, put in the song that Glenn Close wrote for Albert Nobbs that Sinead O’Connor sings. It’s a lovely song that fits the movie very well IMO
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJ7hz2cEv1k&feature=related

  61. Just watched In the Land of Blood and Honey – I would rather see that film – which actually deals with the fucking real world – win then that silly trifle The Artist. Ugh. This will be a movie people roll their eyes over in years to come.

  62. filmboymichael

    Great article….but how can you mention O’Neil and not mention the great zeusefer….he was my number one site at the time and followed his opinions and predictions daily….he or she was always bang on….I’m sure this comes up every year, but does anyone know what ever happened to Zeusefer?

  63. Robert A.

    “By the way, am I the only one who 100% expects Ben Kingsley in the supporting actor category for Hugo ? That category is all over the place, I think Kingsley will sneak in, his part is iconic and in a film that is widely considered a masterpiece.”

    You might be the only one who is expecting it 100%. But you’re right that this category is very fluid. If you’re going to go out on a limb for someone, this is a great category to do it in. The conventional wisdom of Plummer/Branagh/Brooks/Hill/Nolte feels like a 4/5 slate, maybe even 3/5 if things get really wacky!

  64. “which actually deals with the fucking real world”

    Why does that matter? Personally I would rather see Hugo or Midnight in Paris than In the Land of Blood and Honey any day. I get plenty of the real world……I’m surrounded by it.

  65. Profile photo of Beth Stevens

    “Coeur Volant,” the song from Hugo, is certainly one possibility. I’m predicting that along with “Lay Your Head Down,” Sinead O’Connor’s song from Albert Nobbs.

  66. That would be awesome Beth!

    Also imagine if Kingsley manages to get nominated and Hugo ends up with 13-14 nominations would we then be looking at a contender?

    Expecially if the Artist gets single digit nominations

  67. Song category surely won’t look like this. Now only two songs from one movie can be nominated so “The Muppets” can have only two nominations.

  68. Supporting Actor is so unclear. Plummer is unquestionably in, Branagh and Brooks are very unlikely not to be. Hill has SAG – Golden Globe – BAFTA nominations, and so is also a likely nominee. Even then, that fifth slot is still very open. It could be Nolte, Oswalt, Rickman, Pitt, even Serkis, Hawkes, Forster. I’m not sure about Kingsley, but stranger things have happened…

  69. Shasha, I honestly appreciate your insight into the process and your passion for the films, but I have to point out that there is an underlying self-righteousness which is kind of ugly. The Social Network, despite how many times your revisit it, was not Citizen Cane, a film loaded with its own film-school snobbery.

    I was one of the few who was not in The Social Network’s camp or The King’s Speech’s camp last year. I honestly felt there were far better films made in 2010 and hearing, over and over about how The Social Network was robbed is getting tired. Adding “rightly” after the comment on The Pianist’s Best Director win is another example of this kind of self-righteousness.

    There are those who like to think they have a superior understanding of film (never call it a “movie” cause that’s what the mall crowd call it) and they latch on to films like The Social Network and its ilk because there is something that makes you “cooler” than someone who would love a film like Chicago (which is ironic since Chicago is actually quite darker than The Social Network when you think about it). It’s about wanting to be the cool kids smoking behind the gym.

    So go ahead and love Hugo and The Social Network. More power to you. But know that film lovers who love The King’s Speech or The Artist are just as valid a film lover as you are and their opinion is just as valid. They are not somehow less relevant, less knowledgeable or less legit as you are simply because they have different tastes. Only people who love Crash should have their opinions written off. ;-)

    I’m not a huge fan of either The King’s Speech or The Artist but I thought they were both fun diversions. I don’t look down on those people who do love them. But I do look down on those who continue to insist they are right and others are just wrong.

    For me I honestly believe Hugo, The Descendants, The Artist and even Moneyball will all fall on history’s garbage bin. The fact that Shame isn’t walking home with Best Picture is the real tragedy. Go Bridesmaids!

  70. Profile photo of Sasha Stone

    but how can you mention O’Neil and not mention the great zeusefer

    Zeusefer! Wish he was still around.

  71. Profile photo of Sasha Stone

    they latch on to films like The Social Network and its ilk because there is something that makes you “cooler”

    I saw the film over 30 times and never got tired of it. Those who refused to look deeper found nothing.

  72. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    But it’s not autobiographical. Poor word choice.

    Fine, if that’s what you think, lazarus.

    I’m pointing out that the poor word choice is a word Scorsese himself has chosen to use. I’ve seen the autobiographical slant examined in a dozen other places over the past month.

    Other people see it, Scorsese talks about it on several occasions — but go right ahead and latch onto any word that looks out of place to you, because it’s a great way to let us know you’ve gone through the post with a fine-tooth comb.

  73. Adam Lewis

    Ryan, how come you’re never on the podcast? You used to do moviegasm right?

  74. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    Adam,

    Sasha does two podcasts. She does Oscar Poker with Jeff. We used to do Threeway Moviegasm with Sasha, me, and Craig Kennedy. Hard to catch us all three in a sociable mood at the same time.

    ;-)

    We often talk about doing more Moviegasms sometime soon… It’s something we like to talk about wishing we might try to do more often…

  75. Are you really blaming people for not seeing TSN 30 plus times? Now I’m sure your not the only person who has done that but I bet you can fit everybody who has into a sedan.

  76. Hi, Sasha. If it ends up being five Song nominees this year, here are suggestions to replace one of the Muppets songs: “Lay Your Head Down” from Albert Nobbs (co-written by Glenn Close, thus maybe giving her two nominations this year?), “Star Spangled Man” from Captain America (co-written by Oscar fave Alan Menken), and one of three eligible songs from Rio or one of two from Winnie the Pooh (they love their animated films in this category). And if they go really crazy for Hugo, there’s always Howard Shore’s “Coeur Volant” (performed by Zaz).

  77. I find it ironic but, this year i actually wish there were a guarantee of ten films for best picture. I know Tree Of Life was a little off the beaten path but, i must say it is one film that really has stuck with me this year.

  78. ………or an elevator. Whichever is funnier.

  79. Profile photo of Sasha Stone

    Are you really blaming people for not seeing TSN 30 plus times? Now I’m sure your not the only person who has done that but I bet you can fit everybody who has into a sedan.

    Nope. I’m blaming people who say they don’t get the Social Network for not looking deeper. I always tell my daughter that good movies you have to reach towards them, lean into them, learn about and from them. If you get everything from a movie the first time through I can guarantee you that movie will not last. If you get much from the first time through and subsequent viewings give you more and more and more? That is a truly great film. All of Scorsese’s movies have endless layers to dive into. Fincher’s too.

  80. Adam Lewis

    I loved the moviegasm podcast. Particularly the look back over film years and oscars of past.

    Keep up the great work!

  81. @Craig Z.so what we all make mistake, but he’s right Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part 2 should be nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars.

  82. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    Those retrospective chats are the ones we like best too. Problem is, we keep wanting to do The Exorcist over and over.

  83. Adam Lewis

    Sasha,

    Good call on the “Great Movie” line. I think the perfect example of this is GOSFORD PARK. I’ve seen that as many times as you’ve seen Social network and I still find new things in it and aspects.

    It’s all subjective though I suppose. My favourite film is Jurassic Park, so what do I know! :-)

  84. I just think 30 is pushing it. I’ve seen most Scorsese or Coen movies like 10 times but that is spaced out over years. There are way too many good movies that I haven’t seen to watch one that many times in a year. But whatever works for you.

  85. Adam Lewis

    Ryan, no, you should do 1977. I think JULIA was robbed! A classic film!. But then you can’t ignore Chinatown and Network and loads more. Boy, the 70’s really were cinema’s highpoint, weren’t they!

  86. yes SClub, I believe you have said that once or twice….

  87. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    :)
    I was kidding about The Exorcist, but it’s a fact that every time we talk about skyping again we gravitate to the ’70s.

  88. Ok I lied Sasha, I’m sure there are movies (T2, Jaws, Goodfellas) that I have seen 30 plus times but that’s over years and years

  89. I actually think Letters from Iwo Jima was the best of 2006.

  90. Oh how the hell did I forget Shawshank! I’ve lost track of how many times I’ve seen that one. Damn you TNT!

  91. “Hugo is a very PERSONAL film. But it’s not autobiographical. Poor word choice”

    a $170 million production in no way can be autobiographical, except in the most surface level ways. “outsider kid likes movies”. that does a huge disservice to his work that is legitimately personal.

  92. That miraculous horse is rounding the bend.

    You were warned

  93. Picture: I think War Horse is in
    Director: Agree
    Actor: Agree
    Sup. Actor: Agree
    Actress: I think Mara is in
    Sup. Actress: Agree
    Or.Screenplay: I think Beginners could sneak in
    Ad. Screenplay: Agree
    Editing: War Horse instead of Moneyball
    Cinematography: (Reluctantly) Agree – It’s difficult to bet against Kaminski
    Art Direction: Agree
    Sound (Mixing/Editing): Transformers is in
    Costume Design: Jane Eyre and Anonymous
    Song: Don’t EVER bet against Alan Menken
    Score: Agree

  94. Great predictions! I think Bridesmaids or Tree of Life could make it in. Hoping the acting nominations are full of surprises. We agree on some stuff but have some disagreements on editing. I’m also worried about Woodley>McTeer. My predictions: johnmonteith.wordpress.com

  95. Jack Traven II

    Maybe it’s completely off topic, but I think another interesting look at who’s gonna win BP at the Oscars is actually the amount of nominations the respective movies receive. Correct me if I’m wrong but didn’t – with a few exceptions, of course – actually always win the film with the most nominations? In the second half of the 90s, when I started caring about the Oscars, I – without internet at that time – began to think that always the film with the most nominations would win BP. Until the year the Hobbits emerged and were nominated for 11 Academy Awards, but lost to “A Beautiful Mind.” But from that year on everything changed for me. I actually never fully understood why the film with the most nominations won anyway. It didn’t make any sense. That basically took off all the suspense. I always thought: Well, “Titanc” has the most nominations, so does “Shakespeare In Love” and “American Beauty” – so they will win BP. And they did. But in the 2000s half the films won BP without having the most nominations. And the suspense came back. To me at least. Only in the last few years I took interest in the race prior to the Oscars. That of course changed everything all over again for me. Maybe it took off the suspense but it didn’t take off the fun. Whenever a film I loved or at least liked a lot went home with an Academy Award, regardless of whether for BP or Best Screenplay or Editing, I was just happy. But, of course, being awarded or not, it didn’t influence my feelings about a film.

  96. Profile photo of Sasha Stone

    I just think 30 is pushing it. I’ve seen most Scorsese or Coen movies like 10 times but that is spaced out over years. There are way too many good movies that I haven’t seen to watch one that many times in a year. But whatever works for you.

    Most of the time I have them on when I’m doing something else, like working. Since I have to sit a lot while I work I either have music or a movie on. Good movies I will put on and just have them on and listen to them like a soundtrack – if you have Fincher and Reznor/Ross on a movie that functions nicely. THat is how I racked up 30 abouts. Might have been more even. No Country, Silence of the Lambs, Fargo — even some bad movies like The Edge I love to have on. It’s just how I roll.

  97. interesting noms but janet mcteer was nominated for both globe and sag whereas woodley and mccarthy missed out one of one them each. if anyone is going to be snubbed why would it be her? besides her performance was X1000 times better

  98. How It’s Made is my choice background sound. Love that show.

  99. Adam Lewis

    Sasha,

    totally agree with movie on in the background. I can’t work without a film on in the background (and I go to sleep with one on too)

    I remember when i was writing an assignment at university I had COMA on a loop in the background. Body Heat’s another that I like to listen to and the Lord of the Rings trilogy.

    I find trashy thrillers like Boys from Brazil are another good option.

  100. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    I just think 30 is pushing it.

    bin Laden has already seen Meet the Spartans 37 times since the day he arrived in hell.

  101. Supekk, I think Mccarthy is in. The Globes don’t really mean anything anymore.

  102. I bet Spartans was just horrible Ryan. I watched Epic Movie once worst thing I have ever seen. I avoid those movies like the plague now.

  103. 30 really isn’t pushing it. I’ve only seen TSN about 4 or 5 times and I would still put it at like #5 on my favorite films of 2010 and yet I often find myself wanting to watch it when I’m bored. Moreso than wanting to watch 127 Hours or Black Swan, both films which I am more enamored with. TSN is just a very watchable movie for me.

  104. wow, you really think Tree of Life is essentially dead?
    My ngng- Ben Kingsley for Supp Actor.

    Also, very sad today about the news of Bingham Ray, someone who I have great respect for. Hope he makes a full recovery.

  105. And I guess Sasha is predicting The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo will basically be this year’s True Grit. A film that didn’t get that much love from the GGs or BAFTAs but still got a lot of nominations from the Oscars. Probably won’t win any though.

  106. scratch that, True Grit was nominated for quite a few BAFTAs. I just remember people being surprised by True Grit getting 10 noms.

  107. There is quite simply no category harder to predict this year than Best Original Screenplay. What a clusterfuck. There’s two locks. The other spots are so completely up for grabs.

  108. Nederama

    I may just be going way out on a limb (may?), but I really do think Tree of Life and Malick are both in. The people who love that film really LOVE it (that doesn’t include me, though)and I can see it really gobbling up a lot of first place votes.

    I’m also predicting Ben Kingsley gets in for Hugo, which, for some reason, I don’t think is as outside the realm of possibility as many would think. For some reason, he’s hardly on anybody’s radar, but by being in a movie that is going to do big numbers on nomination day I think he’ll ride the wave in for a surprise.

    I don’t see how The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo can possibly be one of the Best Picture contenders without Rooney Mara being recognized. I see more passion in voters for this performance than for Glenn Close’s. Yes, voters love Glenn…and yet, no one seems to be wild about either the movie, Albert Nobbs, or her work in it (Still unseen by me).

    Also, don’t count out Michael Shannon. Just, sayin’.

  109. Profile photo of Sasha Stone

    And I guess Sasha is predicting The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo will basically be this year’s True Grit. A film that didn’t get that much love from the GGs or BAFTAs but still got a lot of nominations from the Oscars. Probably won’t win any though.

    Might win editing unless Hugo does.

  110. The last director to win the LAFCA and not be nominated was Spike Lee in 1989. Just sayin. Olivier Assayas’ tie with Fincher doesn’t count since he was ineligible for the Oscar.

  111. Interesting Sasha, who you rooting to win Editing? I know you love both movies.

    I’m rooting for the incomparable Thelma Schoonmacher to take the record for most wins by an editor!

  112. This year has been a great year for movies but you wouldn’t know it based on the nominations. It is criminal that Kirsten Dunst is not even in the conversation when she clearly had the best performance for Melancholia. Also, Drive should make the top 5 BP nominees. Michael Shannon should be nominated too. I suppose the Academy just has poor taste.

  113. I don’t think “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” will receive Film Editing or Adapted Screenplay nods, because editing and writing are the movie’s weaker points. I wouldn’t be surprised if the voters ignore Fincher, too, in favor of Terrance Malick.

  114. Josh, the industry doesn’t seem to think the editing and screenplay in Dragon Tattoo are weak. It was nominated for the ACE and WGA

  115. weird that your not putting HP for make-up

  116. Profile photo of Beth Stevens

    Craig, I was about to make the same comment. ACE and WGA nods for Dragon Tattoo are a fairly big deal.

  117. One thing I wonder though Beth is how much the ineligibality of TTSS effected the WGA Adapted nominations, if at all.

  118. Lucas Prata

    I am soooooo willing to see Gary Oldman nominated. He is gorgeous in tinker tailor soldier spy.

  119. David Lindsey

    HUGO IS a better film than THE ARTIST, but I think there is one film that is better than both of them, THE TREE OF LIFE. If all three of them are nominated on Tuesday morning, it will be a happy day.

  120. Profile photo of Beth Stevens

    Craig, that of course is the big question. We’ll know how the writers really feel about TTSS and Dragon Tattoo on Tuesday morning, LOL.

  121. Lucas Prata

    Is anyone besides me considering The Skin I Live In for best score? It’s one hell of a score.

  122. Ugh!!! I don’t want to wait that long!!!

  123. Paul Voorhies

    A pretty solid list of predictions, in my opinion, at least in the major categories (I didn’t scour the rest).

    And, if you’re a longtime meteorologist, then you already know that The Artist will win for Best Pic. Less certain is Director. I’m thinking Scorcese may take it on name alone. So, a split. I think it’s likely.

  124. “Nope. I’m blaming people who say they don’t get the Social Network for not looking deeper. I always tell my daughter that good movies you have to reach towards them, lean into them, learn about and from them. If you get everything from a movie the first time through I can guarantee you that movie will not last. If you get much from the first time through and subsequent viewings give you more and more and more? That is a truly great film.”

    @Sasha

    What’s your opinion (personal) on Tree of Life then?

    Undoubtedly a film about the human condition, it has many layers which you uncover upon multiple viewings, it shows memories like no other film, the bleakness of life – why are we here etc. Seems right up your alley from what you’ve been saying.

  125. Paul Voorhies

    A very interesting article, Sasha, with some very good points. I love this time of year, when all of us filmies get to get our collective danders up and what not. I also think that Collin raises some excellent points. Sometimes, the “heart” can deovercompensate (is that a word??) and even give up the supporting categories to The King’s Speech. Probably time to move on.

    I’ve followed this site since for years now, probably going on decades, and you’ve still got the best Oscar site on the net, so……there’s something.

    Cheers all!

  126. Paul Voorhies

    Oh, oh……

    and y’all please answer this. Is Close’s spot vulnerable and, if so, by how much? I’m thinking it would go to Rooney Mara and not to Charlize, but you never know. I’m hoping Close gets in.

  127. Profile photo of Sasha Stone

    and even give up the supporting categories to The King’s Speech. Probably time to move on.

    I appreciate people telling me that. But the chances of me moving on are pretty nil. It isn’t that i’ll keep talking about this, I won’t. It’s that, I suppose, last year was the year I finally stopped caring. So it’s back to being just a game to me. The only thing I care about this year is Octavia Spencer and Viola Davis. The rest of it? MEH. The great films will remain great films whether the industry says they are or not. The Oscars don’t matter except in the way they can shift the balance of power in Hollywood.

  128. Lucas Prata

    @Paul Voorhies
    I think Mara is out; Close and Swinton in. Close’s performance was one of the bests of the year, if not the best. Such a pitty Albert Nobbs didn’t get many atention… she could easely have it.

  129. Profile photo of Sasha Stone

    What’s your opinion (personal) on Tree of Life then? My opinion of it is this:

    It’s a beautiful expressionistic moving painting of Malick’s inner world.
    Many people felt an intimate connection to it, I didn’t. I appreciated the filmmaking but I felt it was typical of a lot of movies this year: the absence of a story must mean there is something deeper there. You can apply any thought to it but that doesn’t mean the director intended it. It’s the Tarantino/David Lynch school of filmmaking where the less it “means” the better. So okay fine. It’s a beautiful film. I need to watch it again.

  130. Paul Voorhies

    I love your attitude this year, Sasha. Really….I do. Beats the hell out of last year!!!!

  131. daveinprogress

    A really enjoyable and illuminating read, Sasha. I have been following your blog for many years, and what is really gratifying is to read the overviews and stepping out of the hoopla, to not only assess the ‘game’, but your own involvement and feelings about that ‘game’. That is why your site has survived and thrived – that and lots of hard work! I don’t always agree with you, but i enjoy reading the impassioned and considered way you compose the threads and how the curve balls that are thrown at you by readers and other bloggers, players are handled. A friend and I were discussing Streep’s entitlement to a 3rd Oscar, and he challenged me on why she had to be rewarded to reiterate her greatness – and i realised, how much i play the game to take ‘credit for being right’. I am not an Oscar voter, i am not in Hollywood. I think becuase i have invested two thirds of my middle aged life in obsessing all things Oscar, that i know which way it will be shaped – but i don’t. The real fun is being able to get that objectivity every now and again, come out from underneath it all, and see it all for what it is. It is for me, the mirror that i place in front of myself as a ravenous film goer, wanting to have my sensibilities and reactions reflected back at me, so i am vindicated in my choices. What this wonderful site afffords me, should i wish to avail myself of it is to not lose sight of the passion, the joy and the ‘game’ that for us punters – it is.

    The fun is in the postulating and pontificating – certainly not in the final outcomes – very rarely do any of us get what we want (winner wise).
    Thanks for the commentary, it helps to place it in perspective, and focus on the stuff worth focusing on.

  132. Jerry Grant

    Sasha, enough of the objectifying claims about what are the “great” films and what films the rest of us foolishly support. I’m all for full-on advocacy, but as soon as you phrase TSN’s superiority as objective truth, you’ve lost me. I would love if you refrained from framing your pieces as the revelation about film merit. Especially because I love this site and always revisit it, attitudes like this just to me feel like they are in poor taste.

  133. Paul Voorhies

    @Sasha re: last year. I understand…and you’ll be back, when another great film truly captures your heart. Might be a while. We’ll see. In any event, like I said, I think this time of year is my favorite. Being from New Orleans, it’s getting close to Mardi Gras time, and we have The Os to dissect and dish.

    Keep the faith, girl!! And thanks for all you do for us!

  134. Nicholas Smith

    I think at moment best Picture is still a three way tie between the artist, the descendants and Hugo with hugo and the artist getting 10 Nomination followed by the descendants with 8. George clooney will probably win Best Actor and hopefully will win best actress.

  135. Collinco

    Do I have to watch The King’s Speech 30 times to know its my the cats ass? No and I don’t have to watch TSN 30 times to know it is not either. I’m not missing anything. I was able to see both film’s flaws on the first an second viewings. I’m trilled you love it but there is nothing objectively better about it, no Metacritic score, no amount of blogging, no box office haul, and no amout of Oscars changes the fact that art is subjective and we aren’t wrong if we don’t love what the Internet bloggers or the critics or the masses or the Academy loves. I say let’s celebrate the film lover for continuing to go to the movies and stop trying I insinuate tht someone whose passions are for different films is somehow “missing something” or “doesn’t get it”. I’m not always goin to agree with the Academy’s choice and I rarely do. But I also don’t think the system is flawed because of it. In a perfect world my choices wouldn’t necessarily win and neither would Sasha’s.

  136. Nicholas Smith

    Meryl Streep will hopefully win Best Actress

  137. NGNG: The Help snubbed for BP

  138. So wait Sasha, you are saying that anybody who isn’t head over heels for TSN hasn’t seen it enough times?

  139. Paul Voorhies

    @Mark F. Nah. All the women will rank it very high.

  140. The trouble I have with “The Help” getting in for BP: I can’t believe many people are putting it at #1. Who thought this was the year’s best film? Virtually nobody, although it was popular and a decent production.

  141. Elton Almeida

    I agree that the better to do when you’re playing the “Oscar’s race predictions game” is not to care so much. I love to “play” this game, but I stoped worrying long ago. Most part of the years, I don’t agree with the Academy’s decision. Moreover, I would like to know from you readers of this blog, if you were academy members what would be your votes for best pic/directing in the last years?

    I think mine should be:

    2000
    Pic: “American Beauty”
    Dir: Spike Jonze

    2001
    Pic: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
    Dir: Ang Lee

    2002
    Pic: Gosford Park
    Dir: Robert Altman

    2003
    Pic: Chicago
    Dir: Rob Marshall

    2004
    Pic: Lost in Translation
    Dir: Sofia Coppola

    2005
    Pic: The Aviator
    Dir: Martin Scorcese

    2006
    Pic: Brokeback Mountain
    Dir: Bennet Miller

    2007
    Pic: Little Miss Sunshine
    Dir: Martin Scorsese

    2008
    Pic: No Country for Old Men
    Dir: Coen brothers

    2009
    Pic: The Reader
    Dir: Stephen Daldry

    2010
    Pic: Precious
    Dir: Lee Daniels

    2011
    Pic: The King’s Speech
    Dir: Tom Hooper

  142. daveinprogress

    My predictions (not my preferences)
    Picture: 7: Help. Artist, Descendants, Hugo, Moneyball, WarH, GirlwithD
    (I don’t see Midnight in Paris with enough other categories unless Owen Wilson and Costume, Prod Design also get included – screenplay and director may be enough, but not convinced)

    Dir: Hanazavicius, Scorsese, Payne, Allen, Spielberg(Fincher/Miller poss)

    Actor: Dujardin, Clooney, Pitt, DiCaprio, Fassbender(Gosling/Shannon poss

    Actress: Streep, Davis, Williams, Swinton, Mara (shut out for Close)

    Supp A: Plummer, Brooks, Hill, Branagh & Kingsley (Oswalt a poss)

    Supp Actrss: Bejo, Spencer, Chastain, Woodley, McTeer (McCarhty shut out)

    As usual the nominations may be more interesting than the eventual winners – there will be some surprises, it just feels too fluid in some of the major categories/

  143. Daveylow

    I haven’t agreed with Sasha for the past few years on what is the best picture of the year but I do agree with her this year about Hugo. I just watched it again this afternoon and it is just so beautifully put together on every level. I watched Asa Butterfield’s more closely this time around and he and the rest of the cast are wonderful. I don’t know why Ben Kinglsey is being ignored. Even if The Artist wins Best Picture this year, I do think Scosese should win the director award. What an achievement.

  144. Felipe Mejia

    Great list of predictions Sasha. Very agreed.
    I just wish there were ten nominees or at least 9 this year. I mean if THE BLIND SIDE! was a BP nominee so could be War Horse, Tinker Taylor and Drive. I liked Bridesmaids but not for a BP nominee.

    Also, why people are not talking about Ryan Gosling? he had two (or 3?) strong performances this year so I think the Academy may reward him with a nomination but its hard to know with all the love for Clooney, Pitt and DeCaprio. Same old same old.. yawwwwn.

  145. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    So wait Sasha, you are saying that anybody who isn’t head over heels for TSN hasn’t seen it enough times?

    Based on your phrasing, I’d recommend you never watch The Social Network ever again. With that attitude, you’ll be wasting your time. The more you watch it, the more belligerent you’ll get. For your own safety, sell or donate your copy of The Social Network to somebody who’s not allergic.

    If you’re not into it, don’t watch it.

  146. Huh? What are you talking about Ryan. Beligerent? I quite like TSN. I just don’t agree with saying that anybody who doesn’t like it must be missing something. It’s all subjective.

  147. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    Was editing reply before I saw your followup, Craig Z.

    I say, for anybody who’s not into The Social Network, if they find it so much of a chore, don’t bother. I wouldn’t tell someone to watch a movie again if they didn’t like it the first time. If they want to give it another go, the desire to look deeper can’t be prescribed to somebody.

    Turning it around, speaking for myself, I’ll watch The Artist again when I’m ready. Being told I need to watch it again is the worst advice. Not helpful.

  148. Jake G.!

    Hopefully either Moneyball, The Help, or Midnight in Paris is snubbed! They dont deserve the bp nod, especially Moneyball, a boring film that made me feel nothing at all!

  149. Profile photo of Sasha Stone

    Turning it around, speaking for myself, I’ll watch The Artist again when I’m ready. Being told I need to watch it again is the worst advice. Not helpful.

    The Artist is a movie you pretty much get the first time around everything of value….

  150. Profile photo of Sasha Stone

    I never said people who didn’t get TSN are missing something. I’m just saying that people who say that the film is flawed because of that are wrong. If they say “I didn’t like it” that’s different from saying it’s a bad movie.

  151. I never once said I didn’t like TSN. I’ve seen it probably 5 times. That’s a lot for me.

    Today is wierd. Sasha was being quite polite. We had a nice conversation. I was never being snarky. That last post of mine was a legit question.

    You called me beligerent. You are usually the nicer one.

  152. Now Social Network was probably in my top five last year and that’s saying a lot because True Grit, Black Swan, Inception, The Fighter and The Town are the shit. So it has to be pretty damn great just to be considered.

  153. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    You are usually the nicer one.

    just an act.
    lifting the veil today.

    look away! I’m hideous.

    I’m bugged by the confrontational attitude today toward any opinion that’s outside the general consensus.

  154. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    I was joking with you Craig.

    It was off key. I’m not going start of with “Nurse Ryan” and be deadly serious, am I?

  155. Sad, I liked the nice Ryan

  156. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    well, hell, maybe tinkerbell will come back if you clap yer fuckin hands.

    :)

  157. Sorry, I posted that before I read your post.

    I was wondering about that. Why you make yourself a nurse? lol

  158. Sasha,

    I’d say Tattoo would be a lock for editing if Fincher’s editing team didn’t win last year. Has there been a year where the same editors won two years in a row?

  159. Reminds me of a joke on Scrubs where JD had a fantasy where he was Robin instead of Batman….

    Inferiority complex

  160. “well, hell, maybe tinkerbell will come back if you clap yer fuckin hands.”

    You are very difficult to read today Ryan….lol

  161. Lovin’ these picks Sasha! Good luck on Tuesday I hope what have pans out. I just hope for one thing… Rooney Mara getting a best actress nomination because nothing I’ve seen last year remotely rivals what she did in that movie. nothing.

  162. @Craig Z: True Grit, Black Swan, Inception, The Fighter and The Town are not shit! They are all good films.

  163. m1, I said they at THE shit. Slang for awesome

  164. That was a good essay in many respects and I agree with you that Oscar voting is inconsequential, but you’ve only used that conclusion to modify your picks, rather than to change the discussion.

    I have trouble seeing this website as providing something valuable to film discussion because you’re basically just talking about how to best predict the human behavior of a group of voters and not actually talking about film itself. I’m not sure why you’re encouraging so many people to just be glorified statisticians rather than people who discuss films

  165. All those were good to great films. Let`s try doing something: take the 8 leading films from this years Oscar and last year`s top 10 and make a list with the 10 you think would make the cut at the Oscars.

    Last year was clearly better.

  166. Gregoire

    Excellent choices, Sasha, ‘safe’ of course but you’ve taught us that err on the side of conservatism!

    I do think there will be one ‘wild card’ and I think it’s in Best Actor, as Leonardo is simply the most vulnerable potential nominee in a category that has strong alternative choices. My gut is feeling Michael Shannon right now.

  167. @Craig Z: Whoops. Never mind. Carry on.

    Once again, I stand by The Artist as my prediction for the winner. Unless something amazing happens.

  168. David Lindsey

    Saying “I didn’t like it” or “It’s a bad movie” are really the same thing. Both opinions. Both not worth getting that worked up over. Like what you like. Let the rest of the world like what they like. And no, this is not directed only at Sasha and Ryan, but to everyone who feels like they have to play this one-up-manship game trying to prove that they are simply right and everyone else is wrong. You can’t be right. You can’t be wrong. It’s opinion. Not stated fact.

    By the way, THE SOCIAL NETWORK was my favorite film last year. I also highly enjoyed THE KING’S SPEECH. My opinion. Take it for what it’s worth.

  169. The weathermen said 3-5 inches yesterday, and yet I was out there shoveling a foot of snow. Pfft.

    I’m not into predictions. I’m really usually into the Oscar race to see my favorites through. This year I’m mostly just watching from the sidelines.

    One of the reasons voters keep voting for the same thing is the combination of not wanting to look stupid and the mistaken notion that because something is already winning stuff that somehow makes it more inherently valuable.

    I really hoped this new system would finally be the way the Academy would allow itself to be different. I mean it really doesn’t matter what’s gone before. If enough people put COWBOYS & ALIENS in first place on their ballot then it would be a nominee for Best Picture. I think it’s the worst movie of the year, but if it happened I’d be happy to see it. Just because I’m tired of what always seems like the Academy falling into line with the other nominating committees, guilds, etc. Tuesday I’m going to be watching for something no one is expecting to pop up. Or something that fell away like SHAME. Basically anything that’s not on Dave Karger’s list. That would make me happy. I want something unpredictable. As long as I don’t have to shovel it.

    I don’t know. If the same old stuff is nominated Tuesday morning, I just might have to leave the country.

  170. Robertlowercasea

    CraigZ. Ryan is right. The way you confronted Sasha is a dejavu momemt. I remember so very well….

  171. Profile photo of Sasha Stone

    I have trouble seeing this website as providing something valuable to film discussion because you’re basically just talking about how to best predict the human behavior of a group of voters and not actually talking about film itself. I’m not sure why you’re encouraging so many people to just be glorified statisticians rather than people who discuss films

    Um. Do you even read this website? Cause it sounds to me like you don’t, pal. We barely talk about that stuff at all. You must be confusing us with another site.

  172. Profile photo of Sasha Stone

    I’d say Tattoo would be a lock for editing if Fincher’s editing team didn’t win last year. Has there been a year where the same editors won two years in a row?

    I think Hugo will win editing, or even The Artist in a sweep.

  173. “Take it for what it’s worth.”

    +1. I also agree with your opinion. It’s sad that people are hating on The King’s Speech because it’s a period movie.

  174. Profile photo of Sasha Stone

    Craig, Ryan and I have been through it with commenters for many years now. We both know the signs of a troll who comes in here only to give us shit – either me (most of the time, me) or Ryan. So it’s kind of the nature of it all that we both react the way we do. Ryan has my back and I totally appreciate that. But you should know most of the people who hassle us are creeps who turn up again and again just to be assholes.

  175. Sasha, I hope you weren’t mistaking me for one of those creeps. I’ve been coming on here for years. And like I said you were being nice to me today

  176. julian the emperor

    Antoinette: the problem with following a site like this on a daily basis, is that you are bound to get tired with seeing the same 6-7 movies or performances being bandied around all the time. But we have to remember; we shouldn’t take that out on the movies or the actors themselves. They are what they are irrespective of how many times people repeat mentioning them. And the voters? If you feel the need to blame anyone, take a good hard look in the mirror. It’s people like you and I who make this whole enterprise tedious. And the voters? They behave like sheep just like the rest of us. But the movies they will eventually (predictably) vote for? They are there for a reason (and mostly, that has to do with a mixture of quality, nostalgia, popularity, emotion and wit).
    The Artist? If it hadn’t been for the Weinstein campaign and its frontrunner status, it would have been a favorite among cinephiles everywhere. We would think of it as brave, exciting, boundary-pushing stuff. In the current climate (where everybody seems to be rooting for the backlash) it is suddenly schmaltzy, cutesy and without substance. That’s the name of the game. Had The King’s Speech not won last year, most cinephiles would think of it in more generous terms, don’t you think?
    But anyway, there is no need to look down on this years’ contenders for the simple fact that they are in contention (not saying that’s your approach, and btw, I feel the same exhaustion at this point in the race, just to make that clear)

  177. If think Artist takes editing, Hugo takes Art Direction and Costumes and not sure who takes Cinematography (don`t know why but I think Tree of Life won`t win). Hope editing is Hazanavicius only win at Oscar night…. but now let`s think only about the nominations morning. It`s usually a lot more pleasant day than the ceremony itself. In the past 10 years, only in two I felt better after the ceremony than after the nominations: 2003 because City of God snub from best foreign film made me feel really bad and 2009 after Dark Knight/WALL-E snubbed in favor of The Reader/ Frost/Nixon.

  178. I’ve reading this blog since the 2005 Oscars when Million Dollar Baby won, I was a senior in high school. This will be the eighth Oscar season that I’ve followed closely and I’d say thanks to this site, I have had a much better understanding of how it all works and just how much the Oscars just ruin your life if you love a movie enough.

    Anyway Sasha, this is the only site I come to for my Oscar-related news and articles and that’s for a reason. I hope there’ll never be a year where you give up on the Oscars completely… lol

  179. Byron Gray

    Sasha, I long for the days before the proliferation of awards shows stole the Academy’s thunder. The build-up to the Academy Awards used to be so damn exciting. I’m still excited the Oscars (unlike you. I’m not jaded) but the slew of awards before THE BIG NIGHT kills much of the suspense, although you never know what’s going to happen.

    I also believe that, after a string of honoring brilliant but bleak films, the academy wanted to chose an uplifting film for a change and, thus, voted TKS its highest honors. It wasn’t just older voters who chose TKS, either. I recall seeing younger academy members being interviewed before the Oscars last year and they all voted for The King’s Speech.

  180. Sasha reminds me of a great baseball writer trying to pick a World Series winner, tempering fan love with the knowledge that your team’s bullpen kind of sucks….

    Loved the article, although including Million Dollar Baby in the “sunny, reassuring” group of Oscar winners seemed off to me. First off, LA’s never looked grayer and secondly, while that film has plenty of redemption, the ending is about as bleak as it gets. Very different from Slumdog.

    Ryan, sorry about the cold. I’ve had the same thing this week although for me it just meant blowing my nose through on-demand flicks I missed from earlier. Would not have wanted to sit through The Artist with sinus pressure. And yes, The Guard made me laugh a lot more than The Artist. “I’m a sociopath, not a psychopath! They explained that to me.”

  181. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    Craig Z

    We know you’re one of the good guys. I was snappish, and hope I helped explain why.

    Everybody has variations in moods. We’re all mostly playful and wry, but I have days when I’m touchy.

    Those of us who write here every day get to know each other’s tone, but it still takes me aback when shades of my passing gloom can be so easily noticed. (Likewise, Craig, I’m not accustomed to having you say I’m acting weird — you’ve said it 2 or 3 times today (heh-heh…grr)

    When a cat is acting strangely, that’s not the time brush his fur the wrong way, dude.

    ;)

  182. The only film, in my opinion, that deserves to win the Academy’s highest honor is without a doubt HUGO, so I have to agree with Sasha on that. It’s a brilliant homage to cinema, but more importantly it’s themes are so much deeper than THE ARTIST. The Kinglsey storyline has to speak to filmmakers deeply desiring for their work, their contributions, to be remembered and acknowledged. The young boy just desiring to find his place in the world…. these are traditional, classic themes. What I liked best about it was that while the film was emotional and entertaining, it gave me a (gasp) happy ending. Nothing ambiguous, just a good old fashioned delightful ending where everyone’s story ends on a high note. I was entranced by every frame – so exquisitely crafted but at its core, just a satisfying story by one of the greatest living directors in my lifetime. While THE ARTIST is cute and clever, it pales in comparison to HUGO. For me, the damn dog was the best part. And THE DESCENDANTS, while a great movie is so fucking depressing. Just a big old bummer. WAR HORSE was sugary schmaltz, sorry, but true. The only other film that comes close to HUGO is Fincher’s DRAGON TATTOO and I also respected deeply the effort of Daldry with EXTREMELY LOUD. But for me the best film achievement of the year is HUGO. And if Scorsese doesn’t win best director, I will seriously lose it.

  183. Ryan, Well the first two times I said you were acting strange it wasn’t really an insult. I found your sassyness sort of amusing. The last time was my bad. I missunderstood your sarcastic tone.

  184. @SC8Official yeah I do, I mean of alot of movie/film critics said alot of great things about Harry Potter 7.2, and what respect did it get from the state/city critics, BFCA, Golden Globes, and BAFTA? Craig Z. let me ask you something, don’t you think Harry Potter’s last film deserves to be nominated for Best Picture for this year’s Academy Awards (now counting it being snubbed at all those critic awards)?

  185. OCO, I would not mind if HP was nominated for Best Picture. But it’s not going to happen so I’m over it. You need to get over it too.

  186. @julian the emperor

    They behave like sheep just like the rest of us.

    I don’t behave like a sheep. *shrug*

    I’ve been here for a long time. And every year I watch performances and films fall through the cracks. And you know what inevitably happens? The filmmaker who fell through the cracks gets nominated either the next year or the one after that, and sometimes wins, for an inferior film or performance. I’ve always thought it was the Academy going “Whoopsie!” when they finally get around to watching the films. They vote without watching and go based on what they’ve heard. Everyone knows this happens. They catch up on the movies when they have time and then they realize ‘Gee! Nicole Kidman was great in MOULIN ROUGE!. Hmm. If I’d watched it in time I’d have voted for her. Well, she’s got a funny nose in this new movie. I’ll vote for her for that. Same difference.’

    I’m not penalizing the best films just because they’re the frontrunners. That’s not the case at all. I’ve seen all of Sasha’s predictions and alternates for BP except THE ARTIST. Out of the movies I’ve seen that were eligible this year those are not the best, imo. And I think this year is crappy to boot. I’m not joining some kind of backlash. I’m not like that. I think that if the Academy did what they were supposed to do, watch the films and honestly fill out their ballots, another movie, or maybe more than one, would pop up as a “surprise” nominee.

  187. Chicago split the house and barely walked away with Best Picture at the Oscars, where The Pianist (rightly) stole its thunder in the final act.

    CHICAGO WON BEST PICTURE…
    THE PIANIST WON BEST DIRECTOR INSTEAD…

  188. I’m sticking with “War Horse” and “Tree of Life” for best pic noms in a field of eight. I sense that there is a lot of love for those films in the Academy at large – for very different reasons. No director nom for Spielberg, but I’m going with Mallick in place of Fincher, who’s “TGWTDT” I suspect will not make good on its DGA nom.

    As for number of noms: I say “Hugo” gets 12 and “Artist” gets 10. I think “Artist” becomes a low total best pic winner.

  189. I think it’s also so rare to reach a consensus in any year. Even on this site, I’ve seen plenty of commenters group Drive, The Tree of Life, and Melancholia together as three masterpieces that deserve nominations and wins. I had problems with all three. Doesn’t make me wrong, doesn’t make you wrong. It just means we have different tastes. As long as we expose ourselves to as many films as possible and remain open to the experience and honest with our own feelings, our opinions matter. Antoniette’s right in that too many Oscar voters miss films or vote because a film feels like an Oscar winner because of a vague critical mass. But hey, it’s not like Transformers 3 is the frontrunner.

  190. Daveylow

    Alan G wrote: “The only film, in my opinion, that deserves to win the Academy’s highest honor is without a doubt HUGO, so I have to agree with Sasha on that. It’s a brilliant homage to cinema, but more importantly it’s themes are so much deeper than THE ARTIST. The Kinglsey storyline has to speak to filmmakers deeply desiring for their work, their contributions, to be remembered and acknowledged. The young boy just desiring to find his place in the world…. these are traditional, classic themes.”

    Totally agree with what you say, Alan G. The acting in Hugo is also a lot more subtle at times than The Artist. Some have complained that Hugo has pacing issues but it really demands that you become enveloped in its magical world. On second viewing, I noticed the scenes in which Hugo walks through the cemetery on the way to Melies’ home. Such evocative work. So much to admire. I can’t imagine what this film will be like watching in 2-D on a TV screen.

  191. @Craig Z. you gotta admit alot of sequels did better than any major film at the box office.

  192. Actually, did anyone see Hugo in theatres in 2-D? Because my biggest complaint was how the screen looked fuzzy behind 3-D images and I sort of lamented not seeing the 2-D version (thought I enjoyed the film overall). If you have any thoughts, let me know, thanks.

  193. OCO, I don’t care about the box office

    Davelow, I’m a huge Hugo fan but of course the acting is more subtle. Silent film actors cant really be too subtle since they can’t show their emotions with their voice.

  194. Isn’t Jane Eyre practically a lock for Costume Design? Pretty surprised to see it not predicted or on the alternate list. The academy LOVES to nominate and award old British period costumes. I also think 50/50 will make it for original screenplay. Everything else I agree with.

  195. True and I hope Hugo wins

  196. austin111

    I finally saw the Artist today and I have to say it was beautifully made. That said, I’ve seen better takes on the silent film era with the old Sid Caesar/Imogene Coca/Nanette Fabray skits on the Sid Caesar Show which was on TV in the 50s. They were just as good in their time and actually funnier. They also captured the silent era a little better, I think, maybe because they were made closer to that time frame so there wasn’t quite the anachronistic take on the material. I might almost accuse Hanazavicius of taking the idea from these skits. Don’t know how many here are aware of this but it is definitely interesting to me.

  197. No Sasha, you haven’t stopped caring. Your articles don’t reek of apathy, rather, they’re impassioned as always.

  198. julian the emperor

    Antoinette: Well, I agree with you. There is a marked tendency for the Academy to play catch up in regards to performers who get overlooked for their best work and then when the acclaim gets too big to ignore they star in more baity films and get a nomination almost per default. Sure.
    Kate Winslet is my favorite (or least favorite, depending on how you look at it) example. Her win for The Reader was a disgrace. Not so much because it was for a lackluster performance in a bad movie, but because it was a blemish on Winslet’s own formidable career that contains a long line of tremendous acting. The same can be said if Michelle Williams wins this year for the underwhelming MWWM, she did SO much more interesting work in Blue Valentine, Wendy and Lucy, Brokeback Mountain etc.

    Btw, I don’t think Kidman deserved a win for neither Moulin Rouge or The Hours. But she probably deserved a win for something like To Die For. Unfortunately that kind of female portrayal is not exactly something the Academy would go for (therefore I think they are going to ignore Charlize Theron this year as well).

  199. I love both The Artist and Hugo but if I had to pick, I would choose The Artist as the better film. Hugo was wonderful but it was missing something for me and I don’t know what it is. I think The Descendants is one level below these two wonderful films.

  200. Daveylow

    Craig Z–Of course you’re right that silent film actors can’t be too subtle but The Artist never got to me emotionally on the same level as a silent movie like City Lights.

    Hugo did reach me emotionally but never in a sappy way. And there’s nothing in The Artist like the gliding camera shots in Hugo.

  201. Best picture: The Artist, Hugo, the descendants, the help, midnight in Paris, moneyball, the tree of life
    Director: Hugo, artist, descendants, tree of life, midnight in Paris
    Actor: Djuardin, Clooney, Pitt, Fassbender, Shannon
    Actress: Streep, Davis, Williams, Close, Swinton
    S Actor: Plummer, Brooks, Hill, Pitt, Kingsley
    S Actress: Chastain (help), Spencer, McCarthy, Bejo, McTeer

  202. “The Help” may very well end up being this year’s “How Green Was My Valley”. There is a great deal of similarity between the two films. Funny that after reading this piece I could actually see The Help pulling off a Best Picture win which I couldn’t see before. What drove Valley is basically the same thing that drives The Help. The only difference is that I don’t see anything that resembles Citizen Kane this year and Citizen Kane is not one of my favorite films. I know that should cause a stir but it’s just not. I’ve seen it once tried to watch it a couple more times and then just end up turning it off. But now that you mention Valley and I think about it and The Help now I could actually see The Help winning BP.

  203. RobertlowercaseA

    Tree of life is out of the race, I don’t know why there are still people who think TOL still has a chance in major nominations. No DGA, NO PGA, NO SAG, NO WGA, that is pretty telling. Anyway, I guess anything can happen, but I just think Malic’s chances are very slim. It not about who you want to win or be nominated, it is about who will win or who/what will be nominated.
    However. I have conceded to the fact that The Artist will win all the major awards at the Oscars. Best Picture, Best Director, Best Costume, Best Editing, Best Score. Winner of 4 or 5 Academy Awards, including Best Picture and Best Director. Maybe there is something I missed. I felt the same way about Chicago. I hated it the first time, but I loved it upon the second viewing. Anyway, Havanavicious will win DGA next Sat(Upsets are unlikely}, The Help will win Ensemble(would not hurt The Artist a bit), just watch. I am just going to relax and see it unfolds.

  204. So 2 weeks from now, it’s Giants vs. Patriots, but tomorrow this’ll be the BP lineup:

    The Artist
    The Descendants
    The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
    The Help
    Hugo
    Midnight in Paris
    Moneyball
    The Tree of Life
    War Horse

    The lucky 9!

  205. Sasha, I couldn’t agree with you more. For me it’s like this: If the Artist had been released in 1929, no one on Earth would care about it. If the Artist were released in 2011 but in color and with sound, no one on Earth would care about it.

    I agree you can’t argue with the Artist, you can’t say anything bad about it, it’s a good, good movie. It’s an easy movie. You can’t argue with the King’s Speech. It’s a good movie. It’s a very good movie.

    But neither movie makes me want to talk to my friends about it. My dad calls me on Sundays and asks me if I have seen anything good in the last week. I’ll tell him “Oh yeah I saw a cute black and white movie.” But if I just saw The Social Network the conversation will go on for a lot longer.

    So, it is what it is. They like what they like. The gimmick. The easy movie. Not the movie that makes me want to talk about it.

  206. OSCAR NOMINATIONS FOR FILMS RELEASED IN 2011 (okay, only some of the categories…)

    BEST PICTURE
    THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN
    THE ARTIST
    THE DESCENDANTS
    HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2
    THE HELP
    MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
    MONEYBALL
    MY WEEK WITH MARILYN
    A SEPARATION
    TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY

    BEST ACTOR
    GEORGE CLOONEY (THE DESCENDANTS)
    LEONARDO DICAPRIO (J. EDGAR)
    JEAN DUJARDIN (THE ARTIST)
    GARY OLDMAN (TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY)
    BRAD PITT (MONEYBALL)

    BEST ACTRESS
    VIOLA DAVIS (THE HELP)
    KIRSTEN DUNST (MELANCHOLIA)
    MERYL STREEP (THE IRON LADY)
    TILDA SWINTON (WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN)
    MICHELLE WILLIAMS (MY WEEK WITH MARILYN)

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
    KENNETH BRANAGH (MY WEEK WITH MARILYN)
    COLIN FIRTH (TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY)
    JONAH HILL (MONEYBALL)
    CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER (BEGINNERS)
    ALAN RICKMAN (HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2)

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
    BERENICE BEJO (THE ARTIST)
    KATHY BURKE (TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY)
    JESSICA CHASTAIN (THE HELP)
    MELISSA MCCARTHY (BRIDESMAIDS)
    OCTAVIA SPENCER (THE HELP)

    BEST DIRECTOR
    TOMAS ALFREDSON (TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY)
    MICHEL HAZANAVICIUS (THE ARTIST)
    ALEXANDER PAYNE (THE DESCENDANTS)
    MARTIN SCORSESE (HUGO)
    DAVID YATES (HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2)

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
    THE ARTIST
    BRIDESMAIDS
    MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
    THE TREE OF LIFE
    YOUNG ADULT

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
    THE DESCENDANTS
    HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2
    THE HELP
    MONEYBALL
    TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY

    BEST FILM EDITING
    THE ARTIST
    THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
    HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2
    HUGO
    TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY

  207. FrankieJ

    It pisses me off when people say that seeing a film 30 times is too many times. Who the fuck has that right? If I love a film I want to see it as many times as possible. And as the years pass and one matures you can see so many new things in masterful films. I’ve seen Nashville countless times and I’m sure THe Social Network will be up there too (only up to 7 so far but I’ve watched the opening sequence at least 20times as it acts as a master class for brilliant film openings.

  208. Razzies, R.I.P. Not enough is being said about the trashing of their tradition of announcing their worst the day before the Oscar nominations and the ‘winners’ the night before the Oscars themselves. What a sad day.

  209. Jerry Jane Eyre was released at the wrong time if it wanted serious award consideration. would have loved to see a nom for Wasikowska

  210. There’s barely enough quality for 4 nominee slots and they’re talking about close to 10? Yikes-a-palooza! :o

  211. Davey, I don’t want to sound like a huge Artist fanboy cause I’m not that crazy about it but I think its kind of unfair to compair it to City Lights. That is one of the greatest movies ever maid. Thats like compairing Hugo to The Wizard of Oz just because they are both fantasy films.

  212. Robertlowercasea

    James, the race for TOL is over.

  213. Robertlowercasea – it would appear that way but you never can tell.
    No Malick film has received a nomination for acting, so the biggest membership group, the actor branch may still vote for it regardless of SAG. DGA is a worry but I have no doubt he was in the mix.

  214. Its Cate Blanchett! or is it Bob Dylan he he

    BEST PICTURE:
    The Tree of Life
    The Descendants
    Hugo
    Midnight in Paris
    The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
    The Artist
    Harry Potter and The Deathly Hallows Part 2
    Bridesmaids
    Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
    Moneyball

    BEST DIRECTOR:
    Martin Scorsese
    Michel Hazanavicius
    Alexander Payne
    David Fincher
    Woody Allen

    BEST ACTOR:
    George Clooney
    Brad Pitt
    Michael Fassbender
    Jean Dujardin
    Gary Oldman
    Alt: Michael Shannon

    BEST ACTRESS:
    Meryl Streep
    Viola Davis
    Michelle Williams
    Tilda Swinton
    Glenn Close
    Alt: Rooney Mara

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
    Christopher Plummer
    Albert Brooks
    Kenneth Branagd
    Viggo Mortensen
    Alan Rickman

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
    Jessica Chastain
    Octavia Spencer
    Carey Mulligan
    Janet McTiere
    Melissa McCarthy

  215. Jane Eyre is this year`s Zodiac but unlike the Fincher movie, will get a consolation nod.

  216. along with someone above I want to see surprises

    esp
    Viggo & Margin call & Young adult & 5o/50, or screenplay for Beginners, ToL, beautiful W.E. OST, Rooney (to me it will be a surprise, a very pleasant one)

    as for seeing a movie 30 times I’m shalllow, so it probably still wouldnt make me love TSN ))) tho I adore TGWTDT & only this film made me ineterested in seeing Fincher’s other films. Im happy he made a mainstream film for ppl like me ))))

    I like easy, feel good films, sentimental ones & I like seeing Oscars given to them. I love Slumdog I love War Horse I love Tintin, Midnight in Paris The king’s speech
    though Hugo left me cold & I really love reading your posts Sasha cause I obviously miss something).))

    agree with the predictions btw
    The Artist will likely get lots & lots of noms. though Im rooting for the Descendants. we’ll see…

  217. Elton, here are my faves:

    2011
    Picture: Hugo
    Director: Martin Scorsese

    2010
    Picture: Black Swan
    Director: Darren Aronofsky

    2009
    Picture: Fantastic Mr. Fox
    Director: Jacques Audiard, A Prophet

    2008
    Picture: The Dark Knight
    Director: Christopher Nolan

    2007
    Picture: There Will Be Blood
    Director: Paul Thomas Anderson

    2006
    Picture: Children Of Men
    Director: Alfonso Cuaron

    2005
    Picture: Munich
    Director: Steven Spielberg

    2004
    Picture: Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind
    Director: Michel Gondry

    2003
    Picture: City Of God
    Director: Clint Eastwood, Mystic River

    2002
    Picture: Adaptation.
    Director: Spike Jonze

    2001
    Picture: Memento
    Director: Richard Linklater, Waking Life

    2000
    Picture: Requiem For A Dream
    Director: Darren Aronofsky

    1999
    Picture: Fight Club
    Director: David Fincher

    1998
    Picture: The Truman Show
    Director: Steven Spielberg, Saving Private Ryan

    1997
    Picture: Boogie Nights
    Director: Paul Thomas Anderson

    1996
    Picture: Fargo
    Director: Joel Coen

    1995
    Picture: Toy Story
    Director: John Lasseter

    1994
    Picture: Pulp Fiction
    Director: Quentin Tarantino

    1993
    Picture: Groundhog Day
    Director: Steven Spielberg, Schindler’s List

    1992
    Picture: The Player
    Director: Robert Altman

    1991
    Picture: The Silence Of The Lambs
    Director: Jonathan Demme

    1990
    Picture: Goodfellas
    Director: Martin Scorsese

  218. Shockers that wouldn’t be so shocking (think of City of God’s noms several years ago)…

    1) Margaret appearing in the main cathegories. Specially Lead Actress (Paquin) and Original Screenplay (Lonnergan). Talk about a film that has been quietly being there earning vindications. I doubt it will pay off, but Paquin and Lonnergan are already respected names that may have some subterranean support big enough to make the cut.

    2) The Skin I Live In with a surprise nom either at Director (Pedro already did so once), Actor (God knows how eager Hollywood may be to throw Banderas a bigger bone than another GG nom), Adapted Screenplay (the list of real contenders seems to be narrowed to 6, but what if this is 7th?) and Score (even thought Alberto Iglesias votes may focus on Tinker Taylor…)

    3) Of course a Harry Potter nom for Best Picture. It is dead already, and after guilds it is looking even at minimum impact on the noms and zero Oscars in exchange for the whole franchise. Regardless of our opinions on the film(s), it’s quite shocking that the industry wouldn’t be eager to reward the project itself in some way, specially with up to 10 possible films nom’d for Picture. But now it’s more a longshot than any other consideration.

    4) Melancholia coming out from almost nowhere to some surprising noms either at Director, Actress, Supp. Actress or Cinematography. I mean, lol, it’s not insane to think people may have actually seen the film itself and enjoyed it.

    5) Some surprising performers sneaking in, specially never (or little) nominated prestige character actors as John Goodman (The Artist), James Cromwell (The Artist), Alan Rickman (Potter), and so on. Think of Alan Alda for The Aviator (not that he wasn’t great in it).

    On my view, there’s only going to be 7 Best Picture nominees: The Artist, The Descendants, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball, The Help and The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo. Everything else already falls in the longshot cathegory to me. And Fincher’s film is in, just ’cause its DGA nom, to be honest. I also think DGA will match Best Director, unless The Help’s upset Fincher… which would probably be the shocker of the nomination morning, granted, but Oscar has done weirder.

  219. Plus I still think that AMPAS may be thinking of some special recognition to the Potter franchise, as BAFTA did. A farewell that actually winks the studio to make more projects like this to revitalize the industry both echonomically and creatively.

  220. SAG Actor

    Why is Tinker Tailor still in the conversation?? It has gotten no love from any of the guilds and yet it’s still being talked about? It’s gotten about as much chatter Extremely Loud and Harry Potter, but people have wisely left these movies off their predictions. I predict 0 for this movie.

    PS. The way the universe works, since I posted this it will prove me wrong and TTSS will get something, so there you go.

  221. I don’t understand the point of people making predictions when they list alternates anyway…

  222. JOHN H. WEST

    you really made a significant opinion in your editorial….best ever…i’ve been following the OSCARS since the early 40’s, back then the studio powers ruled the winners, along with sentiment…..my first suspicion of unjust victories; joan crawford (mildred pierce) over gene tierney (leave her to heaven)….now I look for surprizes,the out of nowhere WIN…….go HUGO

  223. God, I can’t believe you’re still going on and on about The Social Network vs. The King’s Speech. Your mania about that movie last year is what drove me off the site. Believe it or not, some people actually thought TKS was the better film, and not because they’re a bunch of pablum-fed idiot naifs, as you continue to snidely imply.

  224. Well Weinstein has blitzed the media with advertisements for The Artist. It opened a bit more wide this past weekend and with all the attention and all the raving about it the box office didn’t sustain all the praise. Interesting is that Extremely Loud which got some really bad reviews did pretty well considering that the Underworld sequel opened this weekend as well. Yes the Artist will make a profit but I think what has been said all along about The Artist is true. It’s going to have a very distinct audience and that’s already being revealed. I think Weinstein played it smart holding it back until after the ballots were closed. Had they released it wider before then it might have hurt the number of nominations the film might have received. Now it won’t make any difference and whatever it gets Weinstein will play up in his advertising campaign. The Artist is really going to attract a specific audience and like it or not that’s probably what the producers already realized when they made it.

  225. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    Why is Tinker Tailor still in the conversation?? It has gotten no love from any of the guilds and yet it’s still being talked about?

    I talk about movies I love. I’ll keep talking and hoping, and even if my hopes are dashed I’ll keep on talking. I’d like to see Tinker Tailor stay in the conversation because I think it’s one of the finest movies of the year. If it fails to get a single nomination I’ll keep talking about it.

    Tinker Tailor is in my conversations because I enjoy talking about things I love more than I like griping.

  226. shekwanda

    kind of strange that you don’t consider The Tree of Life even as an alternate for Picture, Director and Original Screenplay.

    I have it as alternate for BP and nominee for BD and OS. I have a feeling the academy will welcome Malick.

  227. UK moviegoers (Liverpool, to be precise) demanding refunds because they didn’t know The Artist was a silent movie:

    http://newsfeed.time.com/2012/01/18/moviegoers-ask-for-refunds-after-finding-out-the-artist-is-a-silent-film/

    “A spokesperson for Odeon Liverpool One confirmed that the movie hadn’t gone down particularly well with everybody who’s gone to see it. “Odeon Liverpool One can confirm it has issued a small number of refunds to guests who were unaware that The Artist was a silent film,” said the spokesperson, who went on to intriguingly state that, “The cinema is happy to offer guests a refund on their film choice if they raise concern with a member of staff within 10 minutes of the film starting.”

    “The Telegraph spoke to film-fan Nicola Shearer, 25, who revealed that she was asked by staff at the Odeon if she knew “it is a silent film.” When asking why, Shearer was told, “some people complained and asked for refunds because there is no sound and the screen is smaller.” (The reduced screen size was also intended as a homage to the silent films of the early 20th Century).”

  228. RobertlowercaseA

    “kind of strange that you don’t consider The Tree of Life even as an alternate for Picture, Director and Original Screenplay.

    I have it as alternate for BP and nominee for BD and OS. I have a feeling the academy will welcome Malick.”

    The reason I believe, like many others, that TOL is out of the race is based on the lack of guilds recognition. I think it is very important to predict the Oscars based on the patter, buzz, and the amount of nominations a film has. Yes, one can “have a feeling”, but that feeling is mostly based on his or her subjective opinion about a film. TOL would have gotten at least one major nomination from at least one of the guilds. It is simple, sure, anything could happen, but at this point, I believe TOL is just as hopeless of MI4.

  229. david lindsey

    Tinker Tailor is still in the conversation, because it beat all other films at the BAFTAs. And yes, because it’s a good film.

  230. MICHAEL LEWIS

    Great choices for Oscar nominations, including your alternates, Sasha! My only reservation is in the directors’ category. I noticed that the only two directors nominated by both DGA and BAFTA, for instance, were Michel Hazanavicius and Martin Scorcese. Although there is obviously a huge British slant in the BAFTA directorial category, to me it proves that Michel’s and Martin’s work are both daring, extremely heartfelt, and mirror each other coincidentally, like you mentioned in your wonderful essay. It may also mean that we may be looking at an imminent OSCAR split: Best Picture-The Artist; Best Director-Martin Scorcese for Hugo. Let’s wait and see.

  231. RobertlowercaseA

    BAFTA voters do not vote for the Oscars, period.(Nobody knows exactly how much the membership of both overlaps)
    It would have gotten at least one guild award already.
    I could be wrong though.

  232. I agree that they will include Glenn Close even if the nomination by itself is her award. And having seen both The Help and The Iron Lady I have to say Meryl’s performance is the one to reward, Viola is great and she’s always been but in this case I think the movie is helping her more than her performance, and Meryl WAS the movie, she was amazing and probably her best role in recent years. So, here’s hoping the Academy realize that, and Streep wins.

  233. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    RobertlowercaseA,
    Then just continue talking about The Artist and The Iron Lady as much as you want. You know, for balance. Wouldn’t want to inadvertently overlook them.

  234. RobertlowercaseA

    The Artist will be nominated for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Original Screenplay, Best Costume, Best Score, Best Editing, Best Cinematography, Best Art Design. It will win Best Picture, Best Director, Best Score, and Best Costume. These will be shoo in wins.
    The Artist: Winner of 4 Academy Awards, including Best Picture and Best Director. I think it is just as predictable as English Patient’s sweeping. I hope I am wrong, but it can’t lose at this point. I have conceded.

  235. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    well, The English Patient sweep was 9 Oscar wins. 3 or 4 wins would be a lot less sweepy. I hope it’s ok for me to expect fewer than 9 Oscars for The Artist.

  236. RobertlowercaseA

    Yeah, The Artist will win about 4 or 5, not exactly a sweep, but major winning though.
    Check this out, the tribute to Spielberg at PGA
    http://www.deadline.com/2012/01/spielberg-tribute-clips-at-pga/

  237. I’m still not convinced that Hazanavicus will win Best Director. I really think that Scorcese may pull a rabbit out of his hat and win that one. I don’t think anyone else but Scorcese stands a chance of winning over Hazanavicus. Speilburg will be lucky if he gets a nomination and if he does it might be a combo thing with War Horse/Tin Tin/Super 8.

  238. julian the emperor

    If TKS managed four wins, I can hardly see The Artist winning more than four or five (most probably for film, director, score and editing, maybe cinematography and costume if it’s really popular among voters).

  239. julian the emperor

    I’m also firmly in the camp (along with Sasha, Kris Tapley et al), that you cannot predict a bp/bd split, but if it’s going to happen (or even seem somewhat likely), THIS could very well be the year. Unknown French guy up against Scorsese…(but then again, when another legend like Allen is in the field, he will probably take a fair portion of votes that could otherwise have gone to Scorsese?)…anyway; this is still Hazanavicius’ to lose.

  240. BAFTA voters don`t vote for the Oscars. OK. Neither the SAG, the DGA, the WGA, whatever, but they influence each other and of course many are members of multiple institutions.

    But I don`t think the british will push Tinker, Taylor for BP. I did not put it in my odds, but I got a feeling Drive will pop up in the BP race.

  241. @ RobertlowercaseA

    Don`t be so sure brits don`t vote. Heard this many times when almost everyone thought Atonement was left out of BP and the main races. But then it still got BP, Adapted Screenplay and Sup. Actress, bumping out two better films (Into the Wild and The Diving Bell and the Butterfly). I personally didn`t like Atonement, but I had it in my final predictions. But again… Atonement had WWII moments just like The Reader. Tinker, Taylor doesn`t benefits from that. And I think you`re totally right about Tree of Life but sometimes the brits can make some miracles in the race.

  242. RobertlowercaseA

    The reason BAFTA matches Oscars sometimes is because they come to the same conclusion and consensus. Just like critics groups agreed with the Oscars that Slumdog was the best picture of that year. I have heard from Deadline Hollywood and Tom O Neil saying there are about 500 to 1000 members who are both Oscar and BAFTA voters, but no one can be sure how many, but it is not over 1000 for sure. Even the president of BAFTA himself can’t say how many. I would have to assume the majority of the BAFTA voters don’t vote for the Oscars. If BAFTA had such influence, Titanic would have swept the BAFTA already, as I recalled, Titanic did not win one single award at BAFTA. BAFTA could only give us a sense of consensus, but not the voting pattern because it is not part of the AMPAS, and to be honest with you, I don’t think the Oscar voters here do not really care about BAFTA’s choices either. I am not trying to discredit BAFTA, but I would have to say that I have always thought BAFTA is an organization that wants to be part of Hollywood and Oscars, they want to see if they can have influence on Oscars. They don’t vote for American films as if they are part of Hollywood film industry. I just think it is kind of sad and pretentious anyway. I think they should vote for their own films and encourage their own UK movies, like Australia, New Zealand that are also English speaking nations.

  243. RobertlowercaseA

    “BAFTA voters don`t vote for the Oscars. OK. Neither the SAG, the DGA, the WGA, whatever, but they influence each other and of course many are members of multiple institutions.”
    Not true. The Oscar voters are mostly guild members.

  244. RobertlowercaseA

    The 250 some directors are mostly DGA members, the 200 some writers of all WGA members I am sure, and it applies to other branches. It is like a small fraction of each guild voting for something specific. All the PGA members are not Oscar voters, but the 250 some producers who vote for Oscars are PGA members, and so on and so forth…
    That is why the guilds are important indicators. If Havanvicious won DGA this coming Saturday, the race is over for sure. SAG’s ensemble will probably go to The Help, but it would not hurt The Artist a bit. Unless Scoresese or Payne pulled an upset(I highly doubt it), the race is pretty much over already. Brokeback Mountain’s missing Best Picture despite winning PGA, DGA, WGA is extremely ware in the history of Oscars, it only proves that statistically you can have a film that won three major guilds and still loses the Oscars, but it rarely happens(Saving Private Ryan, Apollo 13 as well).
    Sure anything could happen, but at this point. The Artist is unstoppable unless its silent film format becomes a backlash which is unlikely at this point. So guys, there won’t be Payne upset, no Hugo, no Scorsese, it is The Artist all the way!!!!!!!!!!!!

  245. RobertlowercaseA

    Correction:
    “I think the Oscar voters here do not really care about BAFTA’s choices either. “

  246. Daveylow

    @Chris Price–
    I think it’s so interesting that we can both love movies like Hugo, Fantastic Mr. Fox, A Prophet, Children of Men and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. Truly outstanding movies.

    But the only one on your list I did not like all was Black Swan. I really hated every minute of that film (though I did like The Wrestler quite a lot).

  247. Lazarus makes very good points about Hugo Vs Mean Streets, there is no way around it.

  248. AMPASSucks

    Elton Almeida says:
    January 22, 2012 at 2:43 pm
    I agree that the better to do when you’re playing the “Oscar’s race predictions game” is not to care so much. I love to “play” this game, but I stoped worrying long ago. Most part of the years, I don’t agree with the Academy’s decision. Moreover, I would like to know from you readers of this blog, if you were academy members what would be your votes for best pic/directing in the last years?

    2010
    Picture: Inception
    Director: David Fincher (The Social Network)

    2009
    Picture: The Hurt Locker
    Director: Kathryn Bigelow

    2008
    Picture: Defiance
    Director: Edward Zwick

    2007
    Picture: Zodiac
    Director: David Fincher

    2006
    Picture: Children of Men
    Director: Alfonso Cuaron

    2005
    Picture: Crash or Munich (can’t decide)
    Director: Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain)

    2004
    Picture: The Machinist
    Director: Brad Anderson

    2003
    Picture: Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
    Director: Peter Jackson

    2002
    Picture: Road to Perdition
    Director: Sam Mendes

    2001
    Picture: A Beautiful Mind
    Director: Richard Kelly (Donnie Darko)

    2000
    Picture: Memento
    Director: Christopher Nolan

    1999
    Picture: The Insider
    Director: Michael Mann

    1998
    Picture: Saving Private Ryan
    Director: Steven Spielberg

    1997
    Picture: Good Will Hunting or LA Confidential
    Director: James Cameron (Titanic)

    1996 (really shitty year)
    Picture: Jerry Maguire
    Director: Cameron Crowe

    1995
    Picture: The Usual Suspects
    Director: David Fincher (Se7en)

    1994
    Picture: Forrest Gump
    Director: Frank Darabont (The Shawshank Redemption)

    1993
    Picture: Schindler’s List
    Director: Steven Spielberg

    1992
    Picture: A Few Good Men
    Director: Clint Eastwood (Unforgiven)

    1991
    Picture: The Silence Of The Lambs
    Director: Oliver Stone (JFK)

    1990
    Picture: Goodfellas
    Director: Martin Scorsese

  249. I wrote the previous comment, there is already a poster going by josh in this thread, just thought I’d clarify, like butta

  250. I’m surprised people aren’t talking more than they are about the whole #1 votes thing! I should think it’s a “factor X” when trying to use historical patterns as a template for discussing this years potential nominees. If there is a category for surprises it’s BP. Someone made a good point suggesting the Help isn’t so strong because who could actually say its the year’s #1 – even women, as some brave poster said, that old guy, I should think. I also find it hard to imagine many selecting Moneyball as #1(not in my top 20). Maybe MIP and the Artist could split older AMPAS members #1 votes, effectively leaving MIP on shaky ground. This #1 vote thingy makes cases arguing for the inclusion of TOL stronger, not to mention other longer shots that people are passionate about, such as, Drive, Melancholia, A Separation, TTSS, TGWTDT, and yes, even War Horse.

    RobertlowercaseAora; You are an smart-aleck American, but I’m fine with that because so am I. Call me.

    That Ryan guy (Sasha’s sidekick)- You remind me of self-absorbed bartender, just because you work there doesn’t give you the right to drink all night, but I find it funny.

    Sasha- yer not too bitter, and besides, everyone has a tendency to be bittersweet in their respective profession and besides, in this arena, it is really quite funny, though not as funny as other bloggers because, like I said, other bloggers bitter-er.

    Craig Z – Grow some balls! nothing I enjoy more than balls.

    Oco300whatevaitis – Your song is just 6 words long – you’re kinda cute.
    I read this site a lot, and MCN and very rarely comment on either. Thought I would as though I’m the Omnipotent Being – cuz it’s FUNNY.

    I can write anything I want, and who’s to stop me?

    oh yeah, since everyone is commenting on it, I think TSN was betta than TKS,but didn’t realize it ’till well after the Oscars when I never felt like rewatching TKS, but have found that TSN is very rewatchable. How to Train Your Dragon was the best of the year though.

    GO Drive, Warrior, Bridesmaids, Apes, GO GO GO!!!!!!! Even HP 7.2 (don’t sit too close Ocoman)

  251. Tomris Laffly

    Sleep tight everyone; and especially Sasha and Ryan! Big morning/day ahead tomorrow. We’ll all be rising and shining early! Well, not us-East-Coasters so much- but still!
    I can’t believe shit is hitting the fan tomorrow! Excited!
    :)

  252. I realize im being a troll
    pretty funny that somebody as self-absorbed and ignorant as me would barge in to tell anybody else how self-absorbed and ignorant they are.

    fact is, I sort of have a crush on Sasha, and I’ll bet she tastes the opposite of bitter.

    sorry, I’ll shut up now.

  253. lol, cute

  254. i really am gay, actually, and american too, lol. I spell better, so there. let’s make out.

  255. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    tonto, watson, robin, all cute

  256. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    American or not, I don’t know where you’re coming from

    but if I didn’t think you were interesting I wouldn’t have handled this so delicately.

    the dark disturbed guys are always interesting

    (and you know I’m gay too, right?)

  257. Yay for Gay!

  258. oh dear

  259. Sorry….I was just feeling…..gay.

  260. you’ve made me all giggly/nervy

  261. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    hey, it’s ok
    off on the wrong foot, but we’ve all regained composure pretty quick

    I’m gonna need to smooth out some rough spots in your longer comment so you don’t leave bruises on innocent bystanders, ok? we try to save the bare-knuckle stuff for Oscar Night.

  262. AMPASSucks

    if you’re gay then how can you have a crush on a woman?

  263. AMPASSucks

    or is Sasha really a guy?

  264. This comment board took an odd but entertaining turn. And joshb’s long list of his past faves reminds me how many films from my lifetime I still need to see. From 1967-1980 I’m gold and then after that it all falls apart. At the beginning of 2011 I made a pledge to see every quality film that came down the pike and $600 later, I came pretty damn close. The enthusiasm projected by Sasha, Ryan, and some of the more thoughtful commenters helped a lot as well, so danke.

  265. well alright then, it’s been interesting.

  266. AMPASSucks

    Jesse, joshb didn’t make a long list of faves…I did, but before me it was Chris Price…and both of us were replying to Elton.

  267. Ah, I got confused when joshb made a comment about the above post being his…Thanks to AMPASSucks, then.

  268. AMPASSucks

    P.S. those aren’t all necessarily favorites…just simply the best that I could find for those respective years.

  269. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    if you’re gay then how can you have a crush on a woman?

    speaking for myself, it happens. I have a crush on Rooney/Lisbeth.

  270. It’s totally possible. I’m a butch lesbian who most people mistake for a man, but I decided over the weekend that I have a crush on Patrick Wilson. He’s just so pretty.

  271. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    ack, Mel. Things are confusing enough. Stop!

    Mel is not gay no matter how much of a cocktease he’s trying to be.

  272. i have a crush on Melissa McCarthy

  273. Ryan! I’m not kidding! I’m a butch lesbian! Must I play recite Indigo Girls lyrics?

  274. Is this still a film blog site or a Ryan, CraigZ, JoshB… chat room?

    Sasha… get some control yourself!

  275. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    Handing things over to you, rick.

    Trust you’ll keep the discussion lively while I get some sleep.

  276. Chris Swan

    After my shameless cheerleading for “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” in 2001, I myself learned a hard lesson, your favorite movie and what you think should win has nothing to do with predicting. People can bitch and moan over the winners, but thats the first rule people forget when they make their predictions.

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