DGA Nominations – Fincher in!


WOODY ALLEN
Midnight in Paris
(Sony Pictures Classics)

DAVID FINCHER
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
(Columbia Pictures, Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer Pictures)

MICHEL HAZANAVICIUS
The Artist
(The Weinstein Company)

ALEXANDER PAYNE
The Descendants
(Fox Searchlight Pictures)

MARTIN SCORSESE
Hugo
(Paramount Pictures)

WOW!

EARLIER: The year feels so wide open, with three locks at this point: Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist, Martin Scorsese for Hugo and Alexander Payne for The Descendants.  From there, you have three or four more possible: Woody Allen for Midnight in Paris, Tate Taylor for The Help, Steven Spielberg for War Horse and Bennett Miller for Moneyball.  Throw in Terrence Malick for Tree of Life.  But guessing Malick for director now still isn’t really a No Guts, No Glory.  Predicting Tomas Alfredson for Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy or Nicolas Winding Refn for Drive would be.

My official predictions are:
Hazanavicius
Scorsese
Payne
Allen
Taylor
Spielberg is my alternate — having a tough time between Spielberg and Taylor – kind of think it’s going to be Spielberg but the stats don’t lie.  SAG + PGA + Best Picture = DGA nom (in all but one year since the PGA began). But the only one to miss the WGA is War Horse (The Artist wasn’t eligible but wouldn’t have missed had it been).  Munich missed out on the WGA and the ADG too but got an Eddie nod and eventually a Best Pic/Best Director nod. So essentially, since Steven Spielberg kind of rules this town, thinking he’ll get snubbed is a No Guts, No Glory in and of itself. But I have to have some excitement in my life. You should all predict Spielberg in the contest, however, as he’s the MOST LIKELY to get in.

No Guts, No Glory: Just for the fun of it, I’ll say Paul Feig gets in for Bridesmaids, throw a whole kink in the works.

459 Comments on this Post

  1. Mattenroe

    I don’t even know if I’d consider Refn a NGNG at this point! He and his film have been doing so well! Nevertheless,

    Hazanavicius
    Spielberg
    Payne
    Scorsese
    Malick

    NGNG: Fincher

  2. knee play

    NGNG: George Clooney (The Ides of March)

  3. VES nominatios:

    Outstanding Visual Effects in an Feature Motion Picture
    “Captain America: The First Avenger”
    “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2″
    “Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides”
    “Rise of the Planet of the Apes”
    “Transformers: Dark of the Moon”

    Outstanding Supporting Visual Effects in a Feature Motion Picture
    “Anonymous”
    “Hugo”
    “Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows”
    “Source Code”
    “War Horse”

    Outstanding Visual Effects in an Animated Feature Motion Picture
    “The Adventures of Tintin”
    “Arthur Christmas”
    “Kung Fu Panda 2″
    “Puss in Boots”
    “Rango”

    Outstanding Animated Character in a Live Action Feature Motion Picture
    “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part ” (Ukranian Ironbelly)
    “Paul” (Paul)
    “Rise of the Planet of the Apes” (Caesar)
    “The Thing” (Edvard/Adam)

    Outstanding Animated Character in an Animated Feature Motion Picture
    “The Adventures of Tintin” (Tintin)
    “Puss in Boots” (Puss)
    “Rango” (Rango)
    “Rio” (Nigel)

    Outstanding Created Environment in a Live Action Feature Motion Picture
    “Anonymous” (London)
    “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2″ (Hogwarts)
    “Thor” (Heimdall’s Observatory)
    “Transformers: Dark of the Moon” (155 Wacker Drive)

    Outstanding Created Environment in an Animated Feature Motion Picture
    “The Adventures of Tintin” (Bagghar)
    “The Adventures of Tintin” (Docks)
    “The Adventures of Tintin” (Pirate Battle)
    “Puss in Boots” (The Cloud World)
    “Rango” (Main Street Dirt)

    Outstanding Virtual Cinematography in a Live Action Feature Motion Picture
    “Hugo”
    “Rise of the Planet of the Apes”
    “Thor”
    “Transformers: Dark of the Moon”

    Outstanding Virtual Cinematography in an Animated Feature Motion Picture
    “The Adventures of Tintin”
    “Arthur Christmas”
    “Cars 2″
    “Rango”

    Outstanding Models in a Feature Motion Picture
    “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2″ (Hogwarts School Buildings)
    “Hugo” (Train Crash)
    “Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol” (Parking Garage)
    “Transformers: Dark of the Moon” (Driller)

    Outstanding Compositing in a Feature Motion Picture
    “Captain America: The First Avenger”
    “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2″
    “Rise of the Planet of the Apes”
    “Transformers: Dark of the Moon”

  4. Too Many AJs

    I think you’re right on the money, Sasha. I feel like the DGA rarely gives us any big surprises. It’s more common for the DGA to lay the groundwork by nominating the standard fare and the Academy to throw one oddball choice into its own Best Director nominations (see Almodovar, Meirelles, Greengrass, etc.).

  5. Bobby C

    NGNG: Lars von Trier

  6. Craig Z

    Anybody have any clue how much longer til they announce?

  7. NG, NG: Gavin O’Connor for Warrior

    I don’t know I always feel like everyone else’s not guts no glory picks are actually somewhat likely. Paul Feig is a definite NGNG because Bridesmaids was awful. Yes. You guys finally got me to watch the damn thing. That and The Help which was actually pretty good. If that guy gets in it’s okay.

    ftr, I was one of the original “Freaks and Geeks” fans who signed the petition to get a DVD. So I don’t want anyone thinking I’m anti-Apatow gang. That movie was just, blech.

  8. Tero Heikkinen

    NGNG: BOTH Malick and Winding Refn are in.

  9. Joao Mattos

    My predictions are exactly the same from Miss Stone. A NGNG could be David Ficher instead of Woody Allen. But that is not gonna happen.

  10. Hazanavicius
    Scorsese
    Payne
    Allen
    Malick (I showed TTOL to my father and grandmother last night and that went well, it was my second time seeing it and it was even better, I think they key is to temper people’s expectations of plot and they’ll enjoy it a lot more)

    NGNG: McQueen (Shame is wonderfully directed)

  11. Tye-Grr

    NGNG- David Fincher

    Prediction:

    Hazanavicious
    Payne
    Scorsese
    Refn
    Spielberg

  12. Craig Z

    Havanavicous
    Scorcese
    Payne
    Allen
    Spielberg

    DGA loves Spielberg. Even more than the Oscars. He has been nominated for the DGA 9 times.

  13. cinejab

    Hazanavicius
    Scorsese
    Spielberg
    Malick
    Refn

    NGNG:
    Eastwood

  14. Sofia P

    Hazanaviscius
    Fincher
    Malick
    Payne
    Scorsese

  15. NGNG for: Alfredsson

    NGNG against: No Taylor or Allen

  16. NGNG: Stephen Daldry in!

  17. NGNG: McQueen (Shame is wonderfully directed)

    Damn. How did that turn into NGNG? I mean I think it is at this point but I feel bad for the guy. I still haven’t seen it but geez. He was right in there in the beginning.

  18. the ghost of easter

    NGNG: Hazanavicius somehow being snubbed…

  19. NGNG: Asghar Farhadi for جدایی نادر از سیمین (A Separation)

  20. NC-17 happened.
    Oddly enough, I think Shame and Midnight in Paris are both better written than they are directed. Which isn’t a knock. I thought there was a lot of subtlety in the writing in Shame (which has to be shown through the acting and directing, which is why I was so impressed with all three). It’s always nice to see a writer or writer/director assume his audience is smart instead of stupid.

  21. @Nate That’s true. It’ll never play here because of that rating.

  22. Elton Almeida

    NGNG: Refn

  23. Sasha Stone

    @cinejab, Eastwood is a great NGNG!!

  24. Nederama

    Malick
    Scorsese
    Fincher
    Hazanavicius
    Miller
    Alt. Payne/Spielberg

    NGNG: David Yates (Harry Potter)

  25. Sasha Stone

    DGA loves Spielberg. Even more than the Oscars. He has been nominated for the DGA 9 times.

    Good point. And you’re probably right.Logic has it that it’s:

    Hazanavicus
    Scorsese
    Payne
    Allen
    Spielberg

    I don’t know what to do about Tate Taylor. The reason I bumped Spielberg is simply because of the lack of WGA nod. And no Art Directors guild nod for War Horse? That seems to indicate an early trend. But we’ll see. Every instinct I have tells me Spielberg will be on that list.

  26. @Antoinette
    I’m lucky enough that my girlfriend lives in Ft Lauderdale and there’s a small theater there called the Gateway that’s largely patronized by the large gay art supporting population of Wilton Manors. Also just north of me is a huge 24 screen amc that can afford to play small movies on one screen for a while and also keep movies around for a while (I’m seeing J. Edgar there tomorrow!)

  27. NGNG

    Allen Midnight
    Payne The Descendants
    Miller Moneyball
    Scorcese Hugo
    McQueen Shame

  28. NGNG-

    Paul Feig, Bridesmaids

  29. Also, thanks to Ryan, I started reading the script for The Artist and it made me even more impressed by Hazanavicius’s directing work. The nuance, the little things that really made the movie, things i love aren’t in there. I feel like he really knows how to work with his actors and pull the best out of them, use their strengths. I think Hazanavicius may very well win here and with Ampas.

  30. NGNG : Ramsay for We Need To Talk About Kevin

  31. The good news for Payne is that the DGA are apparently announcing from Hawaii this morning: the only place it’s still bright and early!

  32. @Glenn that would be awesome! Anybody know when We Need To Talk About Kevin will be out on DVD or On Demand?

  33. Ricky S

    NGNG: Refn (mostly because I think it will be criminal if he is overlooked)

    Predictions:
    Payne
    Scorcese
    Hazanavicius
    Spielberg
    Malick

  34. NGNG Lars von Trier

    Malick
    Fincher
    Hazanavicius
    Payne
    Refn

    Alt: Scorsese

  35. I predicted Spielberg but if he misses then another film bites the dust.

  36. Nichola

    Isn’t Moneyball said to be a ‘director’s movie’ also? and Bennett Miller is in the club and hasn’t been around in awhile, right?

    (1)Bennett Miller
    (2)Steven Speilberg
    (3)Martin Scorcese
    (4)Alexander Payne
    (5)Michel Hazanavicious

    NGNG – Paul Feig

    Tate Taylor could easily make it too. Malick won’t make it.
    But I hope Woody Allen doesn’t. He should WIN Screenplay but I think there are other/better options.

  37. nickyblood

    Hazanavicius
    Payne
    Scorsese
    Allen
    Spielberg

    Alt:Winding Refn

  38. Ricky S

    Yeah I would be really annoyed if Allen made it. I enjoyed Midnight In Paris but there was no real flair to the direction. Even worse would be if Taylor made it. When Refn, Malick, Miller, and McQueen all did fantastic and truly special work behind the camera this year, to ignore all four in favor of Allen or Taylor, (or even Spielberg for that matter…), would be a downright shame.

  39. Allen
    Hazanavicius
    Malick
    Scorsese
    Spielberg

    NGNG: Feig

  40. I believe that Mallick will make it, but Woody Allen won’t.

    I’d say:

    MICHEL HAZANAVICIOUS – The Artist
    TERRENCE MALLICK – The Tree of Life
    BENNETT MILLER – Moneyball
    ALEXANDER PAYNE – The Descendants
    MARTIN SCORSESE – Hugo

    I believe Fincher is close.

  41. Scorsese
    Spielberg
    Malick
    French guy
    Fincher

  42. Sasha Stone

    The good news for Payne is that the DGA are apparently announcing from Hawaii this morning: the only place it’s still bright and early!

    Weird factoid of the day, lol.

  43. Gangbang

    Hazanavicious
    Payne
    Scorsese
    Spielberg
    Taylor

    Anything else is mad mans mind.

  44. NGNG:
    Asghar Farhadi (A Separation)
    Lars VOn Trier (Melancholia)

    I think Spielberg is in. Allen is the one who’s out.

    – Hazanavicious (The artist)
    – Payne (The descendants)
    – Scorsese (Hugo)
    – Spielberg (War Horse)
    – Taylor (The Help)

  45. The Great Dane

    Jesus Christ, I can’t wait any longer! Come on! Let’s get a last clue to where it’s all headed!!

  46. wisconsinkel

    NGNG:

    Steven Spielberg for Adventures of Tintin, not War Horse
    David Fincher for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
    Tomas Alfredson for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (my fav film)

    Predix:

    Martin Scorsese for Hugo
    Nicolas Wynding Refn for Drive
    Woody Allen for Midnight in Paris
    Michel Hazavanicius for The Artist
    Alexander Payne for The Descendants
    Alt.
    Steven Spielberg for War Horse

  47. NGNG: Stephen Daldry

    I’m predicting Hazanavicius, Payne, Scorsese, Spielberg and Taylor

  48. No Guts, No Glory: BENNETT MILLER, MONEYBALL.

  49. I don’t think Taylor will be nominated. Look at the movie like Driving Miss Daisy. Bruce Beresford wasn’t even being considered for an Oscar nomination and yet that same film wins Best Picture. I think Tate Taylor could be this year’s Bruce Beresford if he hasn’t been getting any buzz for director at this point. The only thing Taylor can come close to is Adapted Screenplay and that’s it. The best picture acting nods for The Help though are a lock for sure.

    In another theory, I’m guessing Spielberg will make the list because he managed to WIN for The Color Purple and yet didn’t even get nominated for The Color Purple. Not to mention same thing has happened to Christopher Nolan. Not any wins, but three noms from the DGA and zero from the Oscars for director? Usually I hate the phrase “out with the old and in with the new” but in the Academy’s case, they need to go by it for once just so Nolan can eventually get nominated for what he does best… directing.

    So yeah, no Taylor for my guess. Spielberg I’m hoping makes the cut and same thing for Nicholas Refn. Less chance, but Drive by far in my book had the best direction.

  50. Glenn UK

    Well I checked last year and one awards site had the noms up 9.06am PCT – so we are just about there in a min or so!!!!!

  51. Ricky S

    Can anyone justify a nomination for Taylor as anything beyond overflow/misplaced love for The Help? Did I miss something or was there no distinctive voice there whatsoever? For that matter, I also think Payne isn’t really deserving of director nomination as his work behind the camera was not so crucial to the film’s success. Of course I would not say the same about him as a screenwriter, nor would I say it about some of his other films.

  52. TROLLock

    2012 OUTSTANDING FEATURE FILM NOMINEES:
    Michel Hazavanicius for The Artist
    Alexander Payne for The Descendants
    Martin Scorsese for Hugo
    Steven Spielberg for War Horse
    Nicolas Wynding Refn for Drive

  53. J.-C. B.

    @TROLlock : is that you predictions or the actual anouncement ???
    If the latter, Malick not in… mmmm. But hurray for Refn (I knew it!)

  54. NGNG: Brett Ratner for Tower Heist

    j/k

  55. NG, NG: Jeff Nichols, Take Shelter.

  56. Hazavaniciouss

    NGNG: George Miller for Happy Feet 2

  57. not_hugh_jackman

    NGNFG: Shawn Levy for Real Steel

  58. Sasha Stone

    I don’t think Taylor will be nominated. Look at the movie like Driving Miss Daisy. Bruce Beresford wasn’t even being considered for an Oscar nomination and yet that same film wins Best Picture. I think Tate Taylor could be this year’s Bruce Beresford if he hasn’t been getting any buzz for director at this point. The only thing Taylor can come close to is Adapted Screenplay and that’s it. The best picture acting nods for The Help though are a lock for sure.

    Definitely possible. That goes back to pre-PGA days.

  59. Sasha Stone

    Jesus Christ, I can’t wait any longer! Come on! Let’s get a last clue to where it’s all headed!!

    Really, ha. They announce at 10am Pacific, so that’s roughly 45 mins from now!

  60. Ricky S

    10 am PST = 1 pm EST and when you’ve been awake since 4 am, 45 minutes seems like forever

    I have to believe they’ll try and atone for the travesty that was last year’s winner, even if it is just with a good group of nominees

  61. I don’t understand the support for Midnight in Paris… I thought it was a very clever idea that was very poorly executed. The acting was atrocious considering its pedigree and the direction seemed absent, although some would say that is a sign of good directing. I think, if anything, it should be nominated for the writing.

    NGNG: Refn for Drive AND Malick for Tree of Life. Correct me if I’m wrong, but it seems as though Malick and Refn, combined, have earned more honors for their directing/films than any other films this season, so it seems so bizarre to me that they are such outside shots for everything. I really hope that Malick, at least, gets nominated for both directing and Tree of Life for picture… I felt like I was watching something that demands to be nominated. As for Refn and Drive, while I didn’t necessarily enjoy myself while I watched the film, I could really appreciate the artistry of the film.

  62. Heh, what a time difference. I remember reading it would be announced somewhere Monday morning, so I thought it would be here when I got back from work, since where I live it’s already after 6 PM.

  63. cinejab

    Adam, I’m just as confused about Malick and Refn.

  64. knee play

    i finally saw “A Dangerous Method” this past weekend. it’s a shame that Cronenberg isn’t being mentioned anywhere. he should be in consideration before Payne, Taylor, Spielberg, Miller or Hazanavicius.

    my wish list:
    David Cronenberg
    Lars von Trier
    Martin Scorsese
    David Fincher
    Terrence Malick
    Nicolas Winding Refn

    oops. forgot about Refn. bump Scorsese for him.

  65. Ibrahim

    NGNG: Nicolas Winding Refn, Drive

  66. RobertlowercaseA

    Trollock, that is a nice dreamlist of mine too, damn.
    I thought it had been announced, you devil.

  67. Craig Z

    I actually think that Spielberg deserves a Best Director nod more than War Horse deserves a BP nod. If for those battle scenes alone. It can’t be easy to direct a horse, let alone in what are probably some of the best WW1 battle scenes put on film.

    I’m not that crazy about War Horse but then again I’m not too crazy about a lot this year. I would be happy for him.

  68. J.-C. B.

    @RobertlowercaseA : nice list indeed (TROLLock fooled me too). But I maintain Malick over… Spielberg (not having seen War Horse yet, I confess)

  69. RobertlowercaseA

    “I don’t think Taylor will be nominated. Look at the movie like Driving Miss Daisy. Bruce Beresford wasn’t even being considered for an Oscar nomination and yet that same film wins Best Picture. I think Tate Taylor could be this year’s Bruce Beresford if he hasn’t been getting any buzz for director at this point.”
    But Driving Miss Daisy is not The Help. The Help has been getting nods from industry guilds. PGA,WGA,SAG(The most nominations).
    So why not?

  70. Sasha Stone

    I actually think that Spielberg deserves a Best Director nod more than War Horse deserves a BP nod.

    Yeah but come on, he’s such a favored child. Think about all of the great scenes by directors this year – hell, I thought Rise of the Planet of the Apes was better directed, action-wise. But yeah, I mean, it’s hard to not appreciate what Spielberg DID do with that movie. He botched it though pretty badly, story-wise. No reason to think he won’t be nominated…I just don’t know who to bump. People keep saying Woody Allen, so maybe.

  71. @Mac lolololol

    It’s afternoon on the east coast. I’ve completely ironed my hair while I’ve been waiting. Now I’m hungry.

  72. Here it is almost 3 PM, so morning is long past.
    My guess is:
    Michel Hazavanicius
    Alexander Payne
    Martin Scorsese
    Terrence Malick
    Woody Allen
    My NGNG is David Fincher or Lars Von Trier.

  73. Craig Z

    I’m not buying the Tate Taylor nomination chances…. He hasn’t been nominated for a single director award yet.

  74. cinejab

    dream lineup:
    McQueen, Shame
    Mills, Beginners
    Alfredson, TTSS
    Refn, Drive
    Fincher, Dragon Tattoo

    This is a unique year to me though, because the divide between best picture and best director is so apparent. Usually they’re almost completely intertwined.

  75. Stealing a page from Cinejab, I’ll do my dream line-up:

    McQueen, Shame
    Mills, Beginners
    Haigh, Weekend
    Malick, Tree of Life
    Miller, Moneyball

    So…yeah. I’m prepared to be disappointed.

  76. Craig Z

    “Yeah but come on, he’s such a favored child. Think about all of the great scenes by directors this year – hell, I thought Rise of the Planet of the Apes was better directed, action-wise. But yeah, I mean, it’s hard to not appreciate what Spielberg DID do with that movie. He botched it though pretty badly, story-wise. No reason to think he won’t be nominated…I just don’t know who to bump. People keep saying Woody Allen, so maybe.”

    Yeah but of all the directors that actually have a chance I find what he did in the scenes impressive enough.

    He wouldn’t make my personal lineup but since Winding Refn and Gavin Connor or the Director of Rise of the Planet of the Apes (forgot his name) don’t have a chance so I would settle for Spielberg

    (it should be noted that I am a HUGE WW1 buff and am very happy with his depiction of the battles and that may sway my mind some.)

  77. Oh, I’m too late to edit my comment. I’d actually swap Mills for Von Trier. Making my dream list exact 0% more likely to work out.

  78. NGNG: Terrence Malick for TOL

  79. He botched it though pretty badly, story-wise.

    Oof. That hurts. I dunno. I thought it was good. I’m not a horse person so it’s not really my kind of movie. But I thought the story was solid. Just not my thing. I liked that the Germans weren’t so bad this time.

  80. Craig Z

    “Yeah but of all the directors that actually have a chance I find what he did in the scenes impressive enough.”

    Sorry that was supposed to read…. “yeah but of all the directors that actually have a chance I find what he did in the scenes THAT WORKED impressive enough”

    Also some of the story issues aren’t entirely his fault

  81. NGNG: No Allen, no Spielberg.

    Scorsese
    Hazanavicius
    Payne
    Refn
    Malick

    I think I got it! Yes! Celebrate me, bow down in front of me, bring me a virgin!

  82. Matt Neglia

    Dream Lineup:

    Hazavanvicius
    Scorsese
    Malick
    Refn
    Fincher

  83. Too many italics. I shouldn’t be allowed where there are no edit buttons.

  84. Matt Neglia

    Actual line up prediction:

    Hazavanvicius
    Scorsese
    Spielberg
    Payne
    Refn

  85. Hazanavicius
    Scorsese
    Payne
    Taylor
    Spielberg

    The latter two would follow nicely the pattern of DGA nominating Little Miss Sunshine and Seabiscuit. Enjoyed Midnight in Paris, but it’s more of a writer’s film than a director’s film (granted, all of Woody Allen’s films are), and I don’t think it would be nominated for Best Picture in a year with only 5 nominees. The Academy loves Woody (more than the DGA), so he could definitely reappear, but I don’t see the DGA picking Midnight in Paris like it’s one of the top 5 contenders of the year.

    Then again, DGA usually reserves a comedy slot, and I’d prefer Allen to Payne.

    Malick and Fincher and their movies need this push the most.

  86. >that feel when no Refn

  87. Craig Z

    Or in other words Sasha, I prefer Spielberg to Taylor or Malick. So I would be happy if he got in over them. Now if he appears to bump out Scorcese(not happening) or Allen(maybe)I wouldn’t be happy.

  88. I should clarify that I know that The Descendants is very dramatic and a dramedy at most, but it’s certainly no Precious or King’s Speech in terms of content or tone.

  89. Dominik

    “…bring me a virgin!”

    Damn Stefan, that´s tough to find!

  90. ;-) Hi Dominik… Well, depends. US, you know…. Good to see you!

  91. The Great Dane

    It would be funny as hell if the nominees turned out to be Hazanavicious, Scorsese, von Trier, Winding Refn and Mallick. It would never happen, but we would be clueless to what the Academy then would do. But if Spielberg would be left out here of all places, War Horse is a dead horse, game over.

  92. NGNG: Steven Spielberg for Tintin.

  93. RobertlowercaseA

    Everyone’s an expert now. We are like 5 minutes away from the announcement.
    We need closure.
    My final prediction is the same as Sasha’s.
    Hazanavicius
    Scorsese
    Payne
    Allen
    Taylor
    NGNG
    Paul Figg or David Fincher

  94. @Ryanious: Your inability to even spell your homophobic slur kind of nullifies whatever impact your pea-brain hoped it would have.

    @RobertlowercaseA: It’s kind of sad that Fincher’s a NGNG pick, but I think your right. His odds are very small.

  95. Ricky S

    FINCHER!

  96. Hazanavicius
    Scorsese
    Payne
    Spielberg
    Clooney (ngng)

  97. The Great Dane

    Come on! WHO made it????! :)))

  98. They’re announced, people!

    It’s Allen, Fincher, Hazanavicius, Payne and Scorsese!

  99. Craig Z

    Looks like GWTDT is officially part of this race

  100. Ricky S

    Unexpected, but Allen, Fincher, Scorcese, Hazanavicius, and Payne is an interesting lineup for sure

  101. The Ogre

    At least Fincher made it ahead of Malick.

  102. FINCHER!!! Nice, and right after I said how small his chances were. Awesome. Bodes well for the film, too. Maybe making up for last year’s loss…Whatever. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo hardly represents a consolation prize.

  103. knee play

    yay no spielberg or taylor!

  104. And all of a sudden, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo is definitely in! I don’t feel Fincher being nominated for director (I think either Spielberg or Malick will replace him in the AMPAS lineup) but this pretty much guarantees Dragon Tattoo will swing a Best Picture nomination.

  105. Craig Z

    War Horse is looking dead in the water. Oh well. Thrilled for Scorcese and Allen.

    Told you guys the Taylor thing had no precident

  106. Wow, no Spielberg. Now that’s surprising. And really, Fincher?

  107. Matthew D.

    How very, very boring.

  108. So close, I though Drive would get a DGA instead of Midnight In Paris, still pretty solid list this year. Go Fincher!

  109. Ricky S

    I’m not sure if it guarantees that Dragon Tattoo will swing a BP nomination… let’s see what happens in the precursors

  110. TonyBiigood

    FINCHER !!!!!!

  111. Holy shit, holy shit. I almost had this had I not punked out and thrown Taylor into the mix. I underestimated the DGA I guess. FINCHER!

  112. RobertlowercaseA

    Wow, David Fincher!!! Nice surprise. No Tree of Life like I have been saying all alone. Bye Bye, Tree of Life, no PGA, NO DGA, NO WGA, NO SAG,,go figure.
    Good for Fincher!

  113. The ghost of easter

    Nice… First time that I ever predicted something like this right…..

  114. Jerry Grant

    Ugh. No Malick, no Spielberg–shameful

  115. Craig Z

    Actually I take that back. War Horse may still have a chance at a BP nom(depends on how many nominees their are) but Spielberg looks stalled at eh moment

  116. Matthew D.

    Yes, oh darn, Tree of Life hasn’t been recognized by predictable, generic guilds.

  117. the creep

    MY 5 would be

    Winding Refn – win
    2. Steve MCQueen
    3. Terrence Malick
    4. Steven Spielberg
    5. David Fincher

    I know this isn’t realistic. Just in my opinion these should be the 5.

  118. waltizzle!!!

    I never in my mind considered Allen being nominated cuz I thot malick had this, despite Life’s recent poor showings!!! At least I knew Fincher would get in! U can never underestimate the power of fierce!!!!

  119. TonyBiigood

    I knew that Fincher could Suprise !

  120. The Ogre

    No matter what way you look at it, those are all great directors.

  121. I LOVE Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris is a great film but come on… BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM DIRECTING in 2011? I’m sure not, not even in the top 20?

  122. steve50

    Glad to see Fincher in there. The film didn’t drop as expected at the BO this weekend and it has anged to squeak into the guilds, so far. Slow and steady…

  123. Joao Mattos

    “Dragon Tatoo” is in for BP and BD at the Oscars, and “Tree” only nomination will be Cinematography. Sad for Mallick.

  124. This does help Dragon Tat’s chances, but remember, Fincher was also nominated by the DGA for Zodiac.

  125. anged = managed

  126. RobertlowercaseA

    Wow, I guess I was wrong about Tayler. It just goes to tell you the unpredictable nature of the award season. Tree of Life is officially out.

  127. Ricky S

    I do think that AMPAS will wind up leaving off Allen or Fincher in favor of Malick, Spielberg, or someone audacious like Refn… but my money would be on Spielberg. I definitely prefer Fincher getting in over Allen or Spielberg though

  128. This is incredible!

    If Fincher is in the race I really don’t see how Hazinivicius beats him. We’re talking about a respected filmmaker on his 3rd nomination in 4 years. His loss last year should also play a part.

    Fincher FTW!

  129. Houstonrufus

    Wow, I’m sure Sasha will be thrilled. I prefer Fincer over Tate, so that I guess that suits me fine, although I’d have preferred Malick or Refn.

    I saw GWTDT this weekend. I liked it. I can’t take anything away from the craft of the film. What keeps me from loving the movie is ultimately the story. I never read the books, didn’t see the original film version. Lisbeth is a great character. But I found the mystery pretty weak, unoriginal and uninteresting. I found myself going, that’s it? I wish the characters of Lisbeth and Blomkvist were spending their time on something that was a more satisfying investigative puzzle.

  130. Yey for Fincher

  131. “I LOVE Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris is a great film but come on… BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM DIRECTING in 2011? I’m sure not, not even in the top 20?”

    –>BEST ACIEVEMENT IN FILM DIRECTING in 2011? Yes! Woody Allen’s direction in ‘Midnight in Paris’ is by far the best work in a strong field. Way to go, Woody!

  132. @Tom Houseman – No he wasn’t. Zodiac got a WGA nomination, but not the DGA.

  133. Ina Hark

    I never took Taylor’s chances seriously but thought Spielberg would be a lock. This puts the possible BP nominees in three distinct tiers and shuffles the deck.

    Locks:

    The Artist
    The Descendants
    Hugo

    Pretty damn likely:

    Midnight in Paris

    Possibles:

    GWTDT
    The Help
    Bridesmaids
    War Horse
    Moneyball

  134. @ Tom Houseman: I respectfully disagree. Fincher was not nominated for Zodiac. Each time he was nominated, he was subsequently nominated for the Oscar (Benjamin Button, Social Network).

  135. Matthew D.

    “Woody Allen’s direction in ‘Midnight in Paris’ is by far the best work in a strong field.”

    hahahahaha

  136. Joao Mattos

    OK, somes questions: who is the real frontrunner? “The Artist”? “The Descendants”? Could be one of those years where BP and BD are split at the Oscar? So who could be benefit from that? Fincher for a first victory? Scorsese for a second one (assuming that both will be nominated, of course)?

  137. Thank God for no Malick! Hurray for Fincher, but let’s hope he’s not this year’s Nolan when it comes to the AMPAS nominations.

  138. Tye-Grr

    My NGNG came true!

    However, I would’ve guessed he’d get in over Allen, not Spielberg. But very interesting…

  139. Dominik

    Joao, I believe the only chance for a Best Picture/Director-split is for Scorsese winning Director and “The Artist” or “Descendants” for Picture.
    No way “Hugo” wins without Scorsese winning too.

  140. TGWTDT in IN! The Help and Bridesmaids are not sure BP nominees anymore.

  141. Markie27

    SO the locks for best pics are:

    1. The Artist (DGA, PDA, SAG)
    2. The Descendants (DGA, PGA, SAG, WGA)
    3. Hugo (DGA, PGA, WGA)
    4. Midnight in Paris (DGA, PGA, WGA, SAG)
    5. The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo (DGA, PGA, WGA)
    6. The Help (PGA, WGA, SAG)

    Near Lock:

    7. Moneyball (bec. of script and actor) (PGA, WGA)

    i think it would come down to seven films. i think War Horse (PGA) would be fighting for life and Bridesmaid (PGA, SAG, WGA) might be the surprise nominee… but i seriously doubt it although it was recognized by the guilds more than moneyball. Tree of Life is also done but i hope they do recognize it. Malick snub is telling. If Drive would have been nominated for PGA it would have been a contender for the eighth slot but with no DGA, WGA, SAG, its a goner.

    BEST PIC NOMINEES: at least SEVEN
    at the most: EIGHT

    fighting for eight
    War Horse (PGA)
    Bridesmaid (SAG, PGA, WGA)

    if war horse gets ACE its in. Bridesmaids out.

    offically out of the running:
    Drive (even if it gets an ACE)
    Tree of Life (no quild, will it get an ace?)
    HP 7.2 (sorry)
    Melancholia (no guilds)
    Ides of March (PGA)

    i wish it wasn’t so but alas its gone:
    Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

  142. wisconsinkel

    Even if TGWDT doesn’t do at the Oscars (which I highly doubt given its success at DGA, PGA, WGA and a GG nod for Rooney Mara)…this is a victory over Kris Tapley’s ignorance and his negativity towards the film. Yah, the film is certainly not Fincher’s greatest (that would be Se7en, IMHO), but many movie actors and filmmakers often get recognized for the wrong film….IE) Jimmy Stewart for Philadelphia Story over It’s a Wonderful Life and Mr. Smith Goes to Washington ; Martin Scorsese for The Departed over Goodfellas, Raging Bull and Taxi Driver….

  143. No Bridesmaids?

  144. rufussondheim

    I don’t think Tree of Life is out yet, the new nominating rules really favor it. Although, truth be told, it’s looking less likely. Of all the films released last year, it appears most frequently on top 10 lists of critics. That’s, to me, worth more than some of the precurser’s it’s missing with this new nominating system.

    Slightly surprised but greatly gratified that Spielberg/War Horse is out of the mix for this award. While many like it, I think the vast majority of people like other stuff more. It just doesn’t have the passionate support it needs.

    I feel somewhat justified, as of today, over my weeks of predicting War Horse won’t get a Best Pic nomination. All emotions set aside, it just wasn’t good enough.

    Fincher and Dragon Tattoo are not well liked enough either to be on my radar with my new prediction system, but at least it’s a more justifiable pick(19) than War Horse(25) or The Help(26).

    As I’ve been saying, films outside of the top 20 rarely get nominated for Best Pic Oscar. It’s only happened twice in the last ten years (The Reader at 38, and The Blind Side at 40+). The Help has the precursors to suggest it’s a more viable nominee than War Horse (mostly it’s impressive SAG showing.)

    I think it’s safe to say that Drive is a longshot at this point. And Moneyball has dropped considerably, while Dragon Tattoo has risen dramatically as of late. Not only has Dragon Tattoo risen up into the necessary top 20 (just barely) it’s also getting some Guild Love.

    My current prediction list is…

    The Locks

    1) The Artist
    2) The Descendants
    3) Hugo
    4) Midnight in Paris

    The Likely

    5) The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
    6) The Help
    7) The Tree of Life

    The Less Likely
    8) Moneyball
    9) Bridesmaids
    10) War Horse
    11) Drive

    Anything not listed here would be an extreme surprise.

  145. MICHAEL LEWIS

    Sasha, you must be celebrating like crazy right now! David Fincher is in! Two back-to-back DGA nominations! Now the Oscar race is really heating up!

  146. himynameiscole

    i liked midnight in paris, but allen over malick and refn? script i can see, but directing? come on.

  147. @Tom Houseman

    Where did you got that Fincher was nominated for “Zodiac”??? WTF??? he was only nominated for Benjamin Button and The social network.

  148. BP is now between The Artist, The Descendants and Hugo. Midnight in Paris, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (who would have believed) and The Help should earn nominations.

  149. god dammit………
    i got fincher right but i put SS in instead of Allen……
    which level am i at……

  150. I knew if I left they’d come in. I still haven’t seen THE ARTIST but otherwise I’m cool with it.

  151. Residual love for TSN helped Fincher today. Paul Feig has every right to cry foul here.

  152. RobertlowercaseA

    Wow, I didn’t see its coming. Dragon Tatoo snatched PGA/DGA/WGA..

  153. Justin Lin for BD before Nicholas Refn! Malick…too bad for his fans; TOL was a little too much of an acid trip, I guess, for the DGA. Didn’t think they’d see through the obvious Oscar bait of Daldry and Spielberg, but a welcome thing nonetheless.

  154. RobertlowercaseA

    James. Bridesmaids was not expected to get in except NGNG prediction.
    I thought TOL was going to be resurrected?? Sorry, I don’t mean to say this,,but “I told you so:…

  155. Markie27

    Early prediction:

    Best Pic: ??? anybody’s ballgame
    Best Director: Martin Scorcese, Hugo

    Actor: Brad Pitt, Moneyball
    Actress: Meryl Streep, Iron Lady
    Sup Actor: Christipher Plummer, Beginners
    Sup. Actress: Jessica Chastain, Tree of Life
    (so that she won’t split for the help)

    Orig Script: Midnight in Paris
    Adpt Script: The Descendants

  156. Yashar R

    HELL freaking YES. Fincher made it. He deserves to be there for TGWTDT. It’s funny how I was 100 percent sure Winding Refn and Fincher were out because of Spielberg and Malick. Of course, Tree of Life is still a great movie that would have been worthy of a nomination, unlike War Horse.

  157. The Dane

    PaulH: A great film helped Fincher today…

  158. “BP is now between The Artist, The Descendants and Hugo.”

    Goes to show this is an absolutely shitty year for BP contenders. I don’t think it would bother me if I don’t get to watch this year’s Oscars.

  159. Robertlowercasea

    Thank god that TOL is out, could Fincher end up like Nolan?

  160. WOW!!! No Spielberg is surprising. I am really happy with these nomination. TGWTDT was one of my favorites of this year and Fincher deserves it. I hope this goes to Michel Hazanavicius. The Artist was a passion project if I ever saw one.

  161. Dragon Tattoo is for real. Somehow Allen made it even though I didn’t like the film.

    Artist v. Descendants for Best Pic with Dragon Tattoo firmly in 3rd place right now.

  162. Wow, look at Fincher. Right before they were announced I was thinking I should have thrown Fincher in since Dragon Tattoo was getting so much guild love (PGA & WGA). Nice to see a surprise like this, but this year is still shaping out to be a pretty mediocre one so far. But yeah, The Artist is definitely riding the wave to a Best Picture/Director win (and I wouldn’t be surprised if Dujardin picks up Best Actor along with it).

  163. Your inability to even spell your homophobic slur kind of nullifies whatever impact your pea-brain hoped it would have.

    Thanks, Jesse.
    Needed to be deleted it anyway.

    from the same sort of mind that gave us: “Barock is a Muslin”

  164. And the plot thickens…now the only 2 films that have PGA-DGA-WGA-SAG Ensemble are…The Descendants, Midnight in Paris. Of course, The Artist was not eligible for WGA, so it is still the frontrunner and The Help is close behind, it ‘only’ missed the DGA. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo should be now considered a decent top5 player with the powerful PGA-DGA-WGA trio under its belt…unless the Academy pulls a ‘Dark Knight’ on us, Fincher will get a Best director nomination…his third in 4 years.

    Here is the updated chart :
    http://awardscorner.blogspot.com/2012/01/who-are-strongest-contenders-in-main.html

  165. Jason B

    Wow, voters are always a film behind the filmmakers. DRAGON TATTOO was awful and not Fincher’s best work, especially in comparison to his previous film THE SOCIAL NETWORK. Alexander Payne’s SIDEWAYS was infinitely better than his bloated sentimentality, yet well-intentioned, film THE DESCENDANTS (the film would have been flawless if 15+ minutes shorter).

    Yet, Malick, Von Treer, and Miller make the best films of their career and they are no where to be seen. But I guess the DGA still operates in the mentality that directing for film is the same as for stage – focused on the actors. Not in using the medium of cinema to its potential.

  166. I’m rather glad about this list.

    Although Malick probably should have taken Allen’s place – the only quibble I have.

    Allen belongs in Best Screenplay definitely, and I think these two could be swapped out in those categories come AMPAS nomination announcements. I think there’s still a lot of love out there for Malick in AMPAS. Glad to see Spielberg OUT. War Horse certainly not his best effort.

  167. I’m with absolute approval over Scorsese, Hazanavicius, Payne and Fincher. Woody Allen sticks out like a sore thumb. He directed Scoop and Anything Else better than he did Midnight in Paris. Shoulda been Malick instead.

  168. YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH FINCHER!!!! I’m so happy :)

  169. I kinda wanted to see Malick in there. I think Fincher will end up being this year’s Nolan but at least the DGA seems to know they fucked up last year.

  170. I would caution people against ruling out War Horse. It’s missed DGA and WGA, but these are five-wide contests and we can guess that it was sixth or seventh in each. It got the GG. It also got the one precursor that uses a preferential voting system (PGA, although they did have ten slots).

    Is War Horse in? Maybe. Is it out? Maybe. I wouldn’t be too sure either way.

  171. Bobby C.

    Congrats to Scorsese! His 8th DGA Feature Film nomination! Quite impressive! :)

  172. Ernie Powell

    Wow….I got all five.

  173. Daveylow

    Looking at this list, I wonder now if Scorsese is going to get the DGA.

  174. Robert A.

    Good for Fincher! Somehow, though, I suspect this DGA list isn’t going to match up completely with the Oscar director list. Usually DGA matches 4/5 with Oscar. My tendency is to think that will happen again this year. I think Hazanivicius, Scorcese, and probably Payne are in, so my guess is either Allen or Fincher is left off the Oscar director list in favor of…????

    I don’t think it will be Taylor or Miller. I may still suicide-slot for Malick in a kind of David Lynch for Mulholland Drive kind of nomination (embraced by critics, ignored by the guilds, embraced by the director’s branch of the Academy). I do think, however, that any chance Tree of Life had for a BP nomination (which I wasn’t convinced was all that strong to begin with) probably went out the window with the lack of the PGA nomination and especially DGA nomination. I know there’s a new voting system and all, but still… looks doubtful even taking that into consideration.

    Bad news for War Horse. I think it’s not going to make BP or director or acting and probably not even writing. I think it’s looking like a tech only nominee.

    TGWTDT is looking very strong for a BP nomination. I wonder if this seeming upsurge of support for the film will propel Mara onto the Best Actress list and bump off Close or even Swinton.

  175. Michael Meyers

    Should have been Mallick instead of Fincher

  176. Ernie Powell!
    Bravo!

    (called it, 9:16 last night)

  177. Given what I am seeing I dream of… Midnight in Paris winning Picture/Director/Original Screenplay. That, or Hugo. Can’t help but thinking there’s the horrid chance of Potter’s franchise scoring 0 Oscars all together and having the first installment of the REMAKE of that swedish trilogy winning Picture and Director, the last slap in the face of the europeans, lol.

    I mean, how many Hollywood remakes from European movies are actually better? “True Lies” aside, of course. There’s the chance that the Millenium american versions are going to be better than the swedish ones, haven’t seen any (never interested). Good for Fincher, but this is only a nom to help him being more “due” for next chance he’s nom’d for Oscar.

  178. Robert A.

    I thought about Mara, too…if her film receives picture, director, screenplay nominations (PGA-DGA-WGA suggests, it will), that will be probably proof that the Academy LOVES the film enough to nominate its heroine, too…in that case, I think Swinton will go. I know she has better precursors than Close, but latter is an Oscarless legend who is heavily campaigning at the moment, meanwhile Swinton is a recent winner, one the Academy tends to overlook for stunning lead performances (Julia, I am Love).

  179. RobertlowercaseA

    I am very happy with the DGA nominations.
    All 5 of them deserved the nods. Will Tree of life pull a The Thin Redline? I would say, it might, but unlikely.. It would have at least gotten in to PGA top 10 list, but I think there might be one director that won’t go on and be nominated by AMPAS, and I would say it would probably Fincher.

  180. The ghost of easter

    People…. does anyone know what the DGA-nominees are in the documentary-categorie…. I’d like to know those to…

  181. Tomris Laffly

    GIVE ‘EM HELL, FINCHER; is all I’d like to say.
    ;)

  182. Film Fatale

    Honestly what can one do but throw up their arms and basically give up. No Malick for the surest directorial vision in a decade. Brilliant. Yet we get Woody Allen for one of his most minor pictures. And Fincher for an achievement below The Social Network.

    I’d like to know what constitutes “directing” in the eyes of the DGA.

  183. I could rant on for pages and hours about how utterly screwed up this awards race has been and why that is the case. I’ll make it quick and dirty:

    Congratulations David Fincher!!! I am so relieved that he got in!!!! Thank you so much, DGA!!!
    WOOO! Even if the Academy snubs him, receiving the DGA nom is still a great honor & accomplishment! By my warped logic, I think this is a good sign that TGWDT will get Oscar love and Rooney might make the cut.

    Boo on Woody Allen outing Spielberg. I am very UPSET that Spielberg got shut out. However, I don’t think it is over for Spielberg yet. There has been so many gaps and differences with the precursors. AMPAS loves Spielberg and I heard most of them loved War Horse. I still think Spielberg has a chance.

    However, I prefer Woody over Tate Taylor or Clooney getting in.

    I still think that HP and TOL have a chance at getting some major nominations with the Academy. However, I don’t think Terence Malick will get the best director nomination which is sad. However, obviously not all of the Best Pic nominees will get their director being nominated so they still have a chance to make the coveted 8-10. I never tried to justify or “twist” their chances like some person who bashed me last time declared. I feel those movies are deserving of nominations but are getting ignored. Those twomovies are well-qualified and are being snubbed over inferior films like The Help, Bridesmaids, etc. I am tired of that bashing and nobody else gets harassed for supporting other movies. Those two overlooked movies will always be worthy contenders in my book.

    I don’t think War Horse or Drive or Moneyball is out of the Best Picture race either.

    I don’t think the Academy will follow this list for Best Director: I think Woody Allen is the most likely to be replaced. Sadly, Fincher might possibly be replaced but I think he does have a good shot at making the cut. I think Haz, Payne, Scorsese are the locks.

    I think the possible alternates will be Spielberg or Refn. Or Malick is a longshot if TOL pulls off
    A Thin Red Line with a sudden Oscar rebound.

  184. Heath87

    OMG!!!! Best Lineup EVER!!! What a surprise!!!
    Well, TGWTDTis IN, TOL is unfortunately out…:(

  185. Fincher in and Spielberg out! MAJOR Happiness over this.

  186. RobertlowercaseA

    James, it is your opinion. Midnight in Paris was well directed and written. The directors obviously agreed. Could’ve, should’ve, Malick is out like I told you before. Malick’s film is like a film that is like a feature film of “Kodak” moment or something. It is pretentious, style over substance in my opinion.I am glad the directors, writers, producers agree with me this year.

  187. RobertlowercaseA

    Fincher in and Malick out! Major happiness over this.

  188. @The Ghost of Easter, look this info :)

    Announce all Television Nominees: Tuesday, January 10, 2012
    Announce Commercials Nominees: Tuesday, January 10, 2012
    Announce Documentary Nominees: Thursday, January 12, 2012

  189. Joao Mattos

    Mallick was nominated for the DGA for “The Thin Red Line”. Too bad the left him out now. My feeling that “Tre” could get only one nomintion is getting stronger.

  190. RobertlowercaseA

    “I’d like to know what constitutes “directing” in the eyes of the DGA.

    Matter of opinion and tastes. Go ask the 15000 directors and they will tell you why.

  191. The ghost of easter,

    Last year the DGA nominations for TV followed a day after the film nominees. and the doc nominees were announced the day after that.

    It’s rather nice that they give each division a separate day on the pedestal.

    [EDIT: oh, thanks Leocdc]

  192. RobertlowercaseA

    @Joao
    Wow, I forgot that Malick was nominated for a DGA in 99. Well, I think Tree of Life is really dead.

  193. Robert A.

    “AMPAS loves Spielberg and I heard most of them loved War Horse.”

    Um, but do they love Spielberg? When you look at it historically, the DGA has been much kinder to Spielberg then the AMPAS directors branch has. There have been several times in the past when Spielberg would get a DGA nomination and his movie would hit all the right guild notes and he would still get left off of the Best Director Oscar list. The Color Purple and Amistad are just two examples. I’m pretty sure there are even more.

    That’s why I think Spielberg may be finished for this year. If even the DGA isn’t embracing him…

    Oh, and “hearing” that AMPAS loves a certain movie is suspect at best. Reports of reactions to Academy screenings are notoriously unreliable.

  194. Interesting picks. Happy to see Fincher. I thought the Help was a fun film, but not shot by a DGA-worthy director.

    I think people are severely underestimating Midnight in Paris and its Oscar BP chances.

    This was supposed to be an actors’ actors movie. And the critics, producers, writers, and now directors clearly love it. I would even place it ahead of The Descendants in Oscar chances, behind The Artist and Hugo, respectively.

  195. julian the emperor

    Obviously the DGA announcement favors TGWTDT more than anything else. It’s interesting that TGWTDT on the basis of the DGA alone is suddenly a serious threat to movies like War Horse and Moneyball. I think it could very well take a bp nomination (the momentum is there for it to pull it off).

    As I see it we have four locks: The Artist, The Descendants, Hugo and Midnight In Paris.
    One near-lock: The Help
    And four films fighting for the last one, two or three spots: Moneyball, TGWTDT, War Horse and Bridesmaids.

    I sincerely hope Moneyball makes it in!

  196. Judging from the final list, I go back to what I said month(s?) ago – the race is between Hazanavicius and Scorsese, as it will be for best pic. The rest is dressing.

  197. Boring. In a year without any huge standouts, these guilds and ultimately the academy could have had fun and been bold with their honorees. How anti-climactic.

  198. julian the emperor

    Oh, I forgot to mention Tree Of life..! With the new voting procedure it is unwise to leave that one out of the equation! I think it might have a better shot than WH and Bridesmaids, actually.

  199. Is this the end of Stephen Daldry’s “4 for 4″ streak?

  200. In times like this, I use the “if In the Bedroom can make it” logic (ITB is a small albeit brilliant film squeezing into the top 5). There is a good number of people within the Academy who can recognize art and they will be the ones to bestow nominations onto Malick and the magnificent Tree of Life.

  201. Tero Heikkinen

    I expected Spielberg being left out, but I was hoping for Malick instead of Fincher or Allen. To me, Fincher’s nomination smells like a make-up-nomination.

    Now, my #1 movie’s director is not in. Neither is #2 and #3 favourite films’. Although, The Artist will probably bump Drive to #4 once I get to see it. #2 is – of course – A Separation which no-one in their right minds even expected to show up here.

    Dragon Tattoo took a huge leap towards BP nomination (Sasha’s probably writing about this as we speak), but it’s not a certainty yet. The guilds could be quite off this year – due to 2011 being all over the place. I didn’t have Midnight in Paris on my predictions until today. Now we pretty much must have that on Top 5.

    At least – I’m glad that Tate Taylor is not in. Hopefully The Help misses BP nomination even. It would be the worst of the bunch.

  202. Oh, i keep forgetting, congratulations to Marty and Hugo!

  203. Craig Z

    I’ll ask again now that we know what he nominees are….

    What does everybody think Scorcese’s chances are of winning this thing?

  204. Is this the end of Stephen Daldry’s “4 for 4″ streak?

    DOA

  205. RobertlowercaseA

    “There is a good number of people within the Academy who can recognize art and they will be the ones to bestow nominations onto Malick and the magnificent Tree of Life.”
    But obviously, not enough directors, producers, and writers recognized this magnificent film. Just because a film is heavy on style and cinematography, doesn’t mean the film will be embraced by voters. It should all about the story, the characters as well.

  206. What a dull lineup, especially Fincher getting nominated for such a mediocre film. Ugh, let’s hope Anderson, Cuaron, Tarantino and Nolan keeps things more interesting next year.

  207. RobertlowercaseA

    Mediocre in your opinion. I am glad the directors recognized Fincher again.

  208. The Social Network >>>>>>> TGWTDT. In any corner of earth, in any alternate universe – even Fringe’s ones. :)

  209. Question Mark

    Midnight In Paris is a definitely a stealth BP candidate by this point. As more and more of the late-year contenders disappoint, voters are going to go back to the delightful little film they saw months ago.

    Artist is still the favourite for Best Picture, but MIP could be gaining more heat as we speak. “Hugo” might have to be considered as well, just because it’s on a topic so dear to the Academy’s heart, it’s Scorsese and (oh by the way) it’s an awesome movie. If Hugo gets a lot of noms, we should praise AMPAS for being ahead of the general moviegoing public on this one.

  210. RobertlowercaseA

    Wow, I forgot to give myself the credit for NGNG prediction. I picked Fincher, and accurately predicted Malick’s missing out!!!

  211. RobertlowercaseA

    I hope The Artist will be defeated by other contenders. Anything but The Artist. The whole film is just a gimmick(silent film tribute), the story, the characters, are all predictable and cliched, but unfortunately, it is the front runner for now…

  212. This should line up with Oscar save for at least one exception.

    I don’t know who gets bumped, however. Perhaps Fincher, but he’s kind of on fire right now. And the critics and guilds (and a well-time DVD release) have given Midnight in Paris crazy staying power.

    If I had to guess, I’d say Fincher gets bumped for any of the following four:

    Tate Taylor, The Help
    Bennett Miller, Moneyball
    Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
    Stephen Daldry, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

    I say Daldry not because his movie is some incredible achievement in directing, but because the Academy rides Daldry’s nuts at every opportunity, even if the movie is underwhelming or has no traction/time to build traction. He’s three-for-three in this category in his last three directorial efforts, and he got in for The Reader with almost no momentum or even any time left for building up momentum (much less for sending out screeners), which has me thinking people in the Academy just vote for Daldry and for his movies sight unseen. It’s a scary thought, and hey, he’s a good director, but he’s jacked SO many spots from directors infinitely more deserving than he was in a given year, and the reasons continually escape me. So it wouldn’t surprise me to see him make the cut.

    But yeah, after this, Spielberg is definitely out of the race. War Horse itself might still make the cut come Oscar nomination morning, but unless Spielberg pulls a Munich and gets a sudden groundswell of industry support at the last minute, he’ll be sitting this one out.

  213. The DGA left out Spielberg because they know they’ll be handing it to him next year. No great surprise there. And Fincher got the nod because they know they should have given it to him last year.

  214. Armando

    “Goes to show this is an absolutely shitty year for BP contenders. I don’t think it would bother me if I don’t get to watch this year’s Oscars.”

    It took a while, but there It is. Never fails. Every single year somebody comments on the absolutely shitty year in films and that they won’t be watching the Oscars.

  215. Joao Mattos

    I haven’t seen yet “Hugo” (counting the days for the opening next month in my country), and I am miles away to think that box office is the parameter to consider a movie, good, but the fact that the box office is so tepid comparing to how much it cost, couldn’t seriously hurt the chances of a victory?

  216. The Fincher nom is a head-scratcher. If the DGA was going to go dark, McQueen did it far more interestingly with SHAME. And while Allen created a simple and delightful fantasy world, how can you compare his perfunctory direction to Mallick’s ballsy and bold camera work. DGA, you’re not looking too credible this morning.

  217. Craig Z

    Robert, I see you are never at a loss for giving yourself credit…. Didn’t you predict Taylor?

    Also The Artist is just a gimmick IN YOUR OPINION. I figured if you can something like that to other posters….

  218. RobertlowercaseA

    JJ, Malick’s camera work was ballsy??? It was like a Kodak moment for me.
    “DGA, you’re not looking too credible this morning”.
    Just because you loved TOL and thought it was deserving, doesn’t mean the directors who work in the film industry have to agree with you and have no credibility.

  219. RobertlowercaseA

    CraigZ, i have already admitted I am wrong about Taylor, and I stated the unpredictable nature of the race, so what are you freaked/upset out about??

  220. I realized I’m less interested in who’s nominated for the DGA than I am in the implications of the nominations in and of themselves.

    For instance, not that it was ever going to get nominated here anyway, but what does this do to for Bridesmaids and its shot at a BP nod? Does it still get in as an anomaly, or is it just a McCarthy (supporting) and Wiig, etc. (screenplay) consolation?

    Also, does this put a fork in War Horse? Or does the Old White Male Contingent push it through (buttressed by strong support in tech categories)?

    And what of Moneyball and The Tree of Life? Does this hurt them as much as we might think?

    And, finally, will any film/director pull a Hooper and reverse the tide in the next month on the frontrunner The Artist?

    It’s the questions these guilds create (and which I arbitrarily create to stoke the flames of debate, even if the embers are all stoked out) that I care about most.

  221. RobertlowercaseA

    CraigZ, yes, it is my opinion that I think The Artist is overrated, but I still think it is an Oscar front runner. What’s your problem?

  222. Craig Z

    Yet you have congradulated yourself how many times?

    Also bragging about a NGNG like Fincher is hardly something to brag about. It wasn’t an out there pick so you pretty much just made 6 predictions.

  223. Replace Alexander Payne with Steve McQueen, the list will be perfect.

  224. Craig Z

    Well don’t chastise other posters for stating their opinion like fact when you do the same thing.

  225. RobertlowercaseA

    Well, don’t tell voters to shut up, and say their grammar hurts your brain just because they support films that you don’t like or care.
    Thanks for the suggestion though. I don’t tell people to shut up.

  226. No Malick? No Spielberg? No Winding Refn? WTF????

  227. julian the emperor

    I think it’s very simple: The DGA is a large branch (consisting of 11,000 individuals), obviously they are not going to vote for anything refined or critically applauded, but for what they like, what makes them feel good and furthermore, what’s popular.
    TGWTDT is an expensive movie targeted at a mass audience, we shouldn’t be surprised that it fares better with this chunk of people than Malick, Refn etc. Still Allen over Taylor is interesting: I think The Help is definitely a hugely loved picture out there (in this is the first time it misses out on a crucial nomination this season), but somehow Allen’s charming little postcard movie (with the added effect of its unparalleled box office success) is making Allen a contender, when no one really expected him to be.

    At this point: who dare say that MIP is not actually the biggest threat for The Artist? (or could be in about a months’ time)

  228. RobertlowercaseA

    Oops, sorry, I meant “the bloggers”, not the “voters”. God knows you might accuse me by saying I am OCC or something.

  229. Robert A.

    “He’s three-for-three in this category in his last three directorial efforts, and he got in for The Reader with almost no momentum or even any time left for building up momentum (much less for sending out screeners), which has me thinking people in the Academy just vote for Daldry and for his movies sight unseen.”

    I don’t buy this. The Daldry streak will end this year. Plus, as I’ve written in other threads, comparisons to The Reader aren’t that apt. There’s this mythology about The Reader that it just swooped in from out of nowhere and got multiple nominations. This isn’t exactly the case. True that it didn’t score much by way of the guilds. But it got a Globe BP/Drama nomination. It scored very well with BAFTA, earning several nominations. Kate Winslet was winning awards for best supporting actress. And Harvey was promoting the hell out of the movie, as usual. I seem to remember our very own Sasha writing something along the lines of, “Don’t underestimate The Reader.”

    In short, there were certain indications that The Reader could be a stronger contender than conventional wisdom suggested. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close has none of these indicators.

  230. RobertlowercaseA

    CraigZ, that wasn’t really BRAGGING. You are taking this way to personal and seriously.
    You have issues with me, obviously, that’s kind of funny. Relax.

  231. Craig Z

    Robert, I actually quite like HP. I wasn’t on their case because of the film they were talking about. I was on their case because their grammar was so bad that I cant even understand what they are saying.

    And like you they say the same thing over and over.

    Do you have to argue with every single person who thinks TOL has a chance? Let them think what they want. It’s obvious that you dispise that film.

  232. RobertlowercaseA

    The race is sort of open, but I would still put The Artist as a frontrunner,,,

  233. Craig Z

    You have said “I told you so” multiple times…. How do you define bragging?

    You also said “give myself credit”

  234. RobertlowercaseA

    Whatever, GraigZ, thanks for the suggestion. Good day!

  235. Fincher absolutely deserves this.

    “The story is actually not quite as intriguing as the trailers made it seem and revolves around a deeply disturbing blood chilling tale, however, Fincher weaves it into a gripping almost hypnotic thriller with his command of the camera and his actors…or more specifically his virtually unknown lead actress who turns in a show-stopping performance.”

    By any other director though, yes the film would probably be quite “mediocre” You see, Fincher seems to have an understanding of how to shoot a movie that is second only to “The Master of Suspense”, Alfred Hitchcock. BTW, this is neat article-

    http://borgus.com/hitch/hitch2011.htm

  236. RobertlowercaseA

    I used “I told you so” once, at least it is better than telling people to shut up!!

  237. @Armando,
    I can’t speak for previous years, but in the current case it’s simply the g.d. truth that it’s a shitty year in films. Just look around. Start with the appalling box office figures for the frontrunners.

  238. RobertlowercaseA

    I would say for now, it is three way race for best directing.(Scoreses, Payne, and Hazanavicious.

  239. Craig Z

    “I used “I told you so” once”

    Bragging?

  240. RobertlowercaseA

    CraigZ, I don’t want to keep arguing with you. Let me ask you a question. You think it is a three way race for best directing? I still think Hazanavicious will take the DGA award, and the Oscar.

  241. Craig Z

    I think it is between Hazanavicious and Scorcese. Maybe Payne but I doubt it.

    Safe money says Hazanavicious(I’m already tired of typing this guys name)

  242. RobertlowercaseA

    Yeah, “I told you so” is bragging, I admit. I have my moments, so you want to tell me what you think about the best directing race? Who is the frontrunner in your opinion?

  243. RobertlowercaseA

    I think the best way is to predict the winner all these awards is to go safe and conservative. I would say now the safe bet is on the director of The Artist, but I agree, it might between Hazanavicious and Scoresese, but I am leaning towards, Hazanavicious and Payne.

  244. Craig Z

    Hazanavicious is the front runner because it is unwise to bet against the guy who directed the BP frontrunner. Scorcese has a chance though.

    I don’t see the Descendants as enough of a directors film for Payne to win.

  245. Craig Z

    I think Marty has a better chance than Payne

  246. Only reason that they missed Spielberg is Lincoln 2012 and this film will win both DGA and OSCAR. TRUST ME.

  247. Robert A.

    “I can’t speak for previous years, but in the current case it’s simply the g.d. truth that it’s a shitty year in films. Just look around. Start with the appalling box office figures for the frontrunners.”

    See, I actually don’t think this is the g.d. truth. A year that gives us Drive, The Tree of Life, Melancholia, A Separation, and even The Artist, is a pretty strong year in my book. (I haven’t yet seen TGWTDT and Hugo, for the record.) In fact, I think there are more movies that I love this year than movies I loved from last year. But then I wasn’t all that crazy about 2010 movies like Inception, which I know sent a lot of other people over the moon. I did like The Social Network a lot, and also Black Swan.

    I would agree the movies are weaker this year if you’re looking at the ones seriously vying for an Oscar. But I don’t think a movie year should be measured by its Oscar slate.

  248. Gregoire

    I’m not sure this positions Fincher for a Best Director Oscar nomination, but, for some reason, it makes me slightly more confident in sliding Rooney Mara onto the Best Actress list.

  249. Holy shit…blown away that Fincher slipped in instead of Spielberg. Is this going to be trouble for Stevie at the Oscars??

  250. I’m happy for Woody Allen but why no Terence Malick?

  251. Robert A.

    “Only reason that they missed Spielberg is Lincoln 2012 and this film will win both DGA and OSCAR. TRUST ME.”

    But weren’t people making this same kind of post last year around this time about Spielberg and War Horse?

  252. The good: War Horse (yuck!) and The Artist (gimmick) are now threatened by the rise of GWTDT. So race is definitely interesting now.

    The best: GWTDT sudden peaking will kick out Glenn Close in favor of Mara.

    The bad: Most annoying fandom since Twitards, the Dragontards, win.

    The really, really awful: Fincher will waste next few years on sequels based on trully bad books.

  253. Craig Z

    Actually a good looking lineup really we got

    The BP frontrunner/newcomer (Hazanavicious)

    Two bonafide living legends(Marty and Woody)

    Two overdue directors that are the best of their generation (Payne and Fincher)

    But DGA and Oscar doesn’t often match up 5 for 5 so who do you think will miss out. The trend seems to be the DGA making safer picks but the Academy giving us more out there choices (Greengrass, Meirelles, Lynch, Almodovar). I have no clue what will happen honestly. New rules and all.

  254. Yes, I look at this more in terms of how it impacts the Oscar race than in who was truly deserving; personally, I would’ve swapped Fincher and Payne for Andrew Haigh (Weekend) and Kevin Smith (Red State), but, hey, we all have our own favorites, and I knew neither of those two had a chance. Still, Fincher and Payne are better choices than Spielberg and Malick.

    As for the impact on the race: I’m kind of coming around to some of the comments upthread that Midnight in Paris might be the spoiler, though I still think The Help will take Best Picture (regardless of whether Taylor is nominated or not). I realize The Artist is considered the “front runner,” but it really better start improving its box office — the last thing the Academy wants to do is annoint a flop as Best Picture — even in limited release, The Artist is not doing as well as one would expect from such a critically acclaimed and award-lauded film (and I say that as someone who LOVES The Artist).

    Hugo faces the same problem — middling box-office — which is frustrating, since it’s my favorite film of the year. Technically, that would leave the race between The Descendants and Midnight in Paris, with The Help as spoiler. I’m not feeling it for The Descendants — it’s respected, but not loved. And with this year’s race, it’s gonna come down to which movie do Academy voters “love” the most — Midnight in Paris or The Help?

  255. Can I ask for some guidance on Woody Allen films? I’ve got Sleeper and Crime and Punishment on my laptop that I’ve yet to watch. Either of those good?

  256. Craig Z

    I don’t think Asghar Farhadi is impossible. A Separation has almost identical trajectory as City of God and Talk to her had. They didn’t hit at the guilds either. Picked up a bunch of foriegn language awards too. Among the most critically acclaimed film of their respected years.

    I’m not predicting it but I may save that one for a NGNG down the road.

  257. @Joseph “As for the impact on the race: I’m kind of coming around to some of the comments upthread that Midnight in Paris might be the spoiler, though I still think The Help will take Best Picture”

    I actually think that GWTDT is the most likely spoiler. Shakey boxoffice start didn`t deter the Guilds from voting for it (PGA,DGA,WGA) and it`s building up the momentum at the best possible time. Besides, it isn`t like AMPAS never awarded a dark thriller. Silence of the Lambs, anyone?

  258. This was a shock. I can’t say Fincher doesn’t deserve to be there, GWTDT was very good. I don’t understand the “thank goodness no Malick” in here… it baffles me actually. I can’t see this line up being repeated at the Oscars.

  259. They finally got it right. All 5.

  260. Daveylow

    JA wrote: Good for Fincher, but this is only a nom to help him being more “due” for next chance he’s nom’d for Oscar.

    Do you know how long Scorsese had to wait to win an Oscar? And poor Robert Altman had to be on his deathbed to get his honorary one?

  261. Matthew D.

    So… are there actually people that think David Fincher is a better director than Terrence Malick? Hell, Fincher himself would facepalm at the notion. Tree of Life is the most inventive and well-directed film in literally decades, and the GUILD for directors somehow fail to recognize him. I swear, each year these guilds and the academy get more absurd. It’s almost painful to see at this point.

  262. Can I ask for some guidance on Woody Allen films? I’ve got Sleeper and Crime and Punishment on my laptop

    Woody’s Crime and Punishment is right up there with Hanna and Her Sisters Karamazov

  263. Glenn UK

    Fincher gets in …… is that due to the large contingent of TV directors or is it a sympathy vote for last year? Tattoo has had no real heat through the critics season and is at best a mediocre to good film, in my opinion. Think some people still want him to win BD for The Social Network. Disappointed for Malick and I still think he will get in for Oscar with the far more condensced number of voting directors at AMPAS. Would be SHOCKED if Tattoo made best picture – really 5% plus??

  264. “The DGA left out Spielberg because they know they’ll be handing it to him next year. No great surprise there.”

    Not if Peter Jackson or Christopher Nolan have anything to say about that.

  265. @Matthew D.

    I feel the same about the Malick sentiments. Perhaps not so much his being left out of nominations as a general feeling amongst commentators here and there that he doesn’t deserve to be there. He is a treasure to cinema and I think everyone nominated should be utterly humbled that they took a place he might have had.

  266. Markie27

    While i do enjoy The Artist and find it moving, i still cannot understand how can this film be a Best Picture frontrunner. I have to agree that it was gimmicky but at least it was a good gimmick… but best picture? Among the top 3 films i can only see Hugo as deserving of a best pic. descendants is so like up in the air. midnight in paris is a much better dramedy and more original than the george clooney film.

    will win: The Artist
    should win: Hugo
    want to win: Tinker Tailor (even though they butchered the book, it was still a great movie)
    hope to get at least nominated: The Tree of Life

  267. Matthew D.

    Well said, Polos. The anti-Malick sentiments on here are especially baffling and borderline ignorant.

  268. Craig Z

    “Not if Peter Jackson or Christopher Nolan have anything to say about that.”

    I have my doubts about those two. They will probably wait for Part 2 if they will reward Jackson and sadly the Academy isn’t all that kind to Nolan.

    Quinton Tarintino on the other hand…..

  269. Rudi Mentär

    No Mallick, but therefore Fincher. LIKE!

  270. Joseph: “I realize The Artist is considered the “front runner,” but it really better start improving its box office — the last thing the Academy wants to do is anoint a flop as Best Picture…”

    2009, along with Kathryn Bigelow, Mark Boal and Summit Entertainment say hi.

  271. Daveylow

    Scott writes: Fincher absolutely deserves this.

    “The story is actually not quite as intriguing as the trailers made it seem and revolves around a deeply disturbing blood chilling tale, however, Fincher weaves it into a gripping almost hypnotic thriller with his command of the camera and his actors…or more specifically his virtually unknown lead actress who turns in a show-stopping performance.”

    By any other director though, yes the film would probably be quite “mediocre” You see, Fincher seems to have an understanding of how to shoot a movie that is second only to “The Master of Suspense”, Alfred Hitchcock. BTW, this is neat article-

    *********

    I thought the weakest part of TGWTDT was that it bungled the suspense aspect of the film. I was never on the edge of my seat. There was no buildup in the discovery of the murderer. The Harriet mystery was also fairly obvious. So I would hardly say Fincher is second only to Hitchcock as a master of suspense. Gosh, Stanley Donen’s Charade is more suspenseful than TGWTDT. Though I thought Fincher added elegance and style to the material.

  272. Tero Heikkinen

    “Safe money says Hazanavicious (I’m already tired of typing this guys name)”

    Drop the “o”, and you will not get tired so soon after.

  273. Ah, yes, The Hurt Locker. The least successful Best Picture winner since The Last Emperor. Which means it ain’t gonna happen again for another 20 years or so.

  274. “I thought the weakest part of TGWTDT was that it bungled the suspense aspect of the film. I was never on the edge of my seat. There was no buildup in the discovery of the murderer. The Harriet mystery was also fairly obvious.”

    Thank you. I had the same reaction. For once, the characters in a Fincher film were interesting and engaging, but the mystery itself was one big blah — as if Fincher didn’t really care about that aspect of the story.

  275. Robert A.

    Can I ask for some guidance on Woody Allen films? I’ve got Sleeper and Crime and Punishment on my laptop

    Woody’s Crime and Punishment is right up there with Hanna and Her Sisters Karamazov
    *********

    LOVE! Where’s the damn love button?

  276. Jerry Grant

    My four favorite directors are probably Spielberg, Scorsese, Malick, and Woody Allen. So I’m happy this year. BUT…

    Woody’s film does not even NEAR the accomplishments of Malick and Spielberg.

    Scorsese I cannot complain about, and I think he will deservedly win the Oscar.

  277. Mark F.

    The HL was the exception to the rule. I wonder if “The Descendants” might be the come from behind favorite? “The Help” would be like “Driving Miss Daisy” winning.

  278. Tero Heikkinen

    I have a soft spot for Manhattan Murder Mystery, cause it was one of the first Allen pictures I saw, and it was accessible to a boy that I was then. Only later I could eat up some of the more clever ones.

    I rewatched MMM quite recently and I loved it.

  279. Fincher is winning his make-up Oscar denied last year. GWTDT is winning BP. Guilds have spoken. The buzz is building. Wait and see. What else is there to award really? Silent flick? The Help? Yet another Clooney playing ordinary guy? Baseball flick? War Schmaltz? Hugo so soon after Marty win? Nada on all accounts. I couldn`t care less for the Tattoo fad but it seems the best choice of most likely nominees to win.

    As for geeksfests of 2012, Nolan won`t get s*** for his superhero movie just like in 2008. As much as pains me to say it, that`s the way it is. And AMPAS better not award yet another Tolkien movie as if no other sci fi or fantasy out there is worth awarding. I don`t care how good The Hobbit flicks are going to be, and they are likely to be good, but another Best Picture win is just as big overkill as is Twilight winning MTV awards eevry year.

  280. Craig Z

    Joseph, I don’t think the box office matters as much as you think it does. A lot of best picture winners make most of their money after it has been assumed they are gonna win. That is the main reason films like No Country or Slumdog were so successfull.

    The Artist hasn’t hit wide release yet. I assume that will change after it wins the Globes and gets double diget Oscar nominations. Then it will probably make respectable money.

  281. manrico

    Good: No Spielberg.
    Bad: No Malick.

  282. Telperion

    Fincher over Malick? R I D I C U L O U S

  283. Byron Gray

    It’s travesty Spielberg wasn’t nominated by DGA, Sasha, you’re Fincher-love has crossed over from obsessive to just plain annoying.

  284. Craig Z: I disagree. In the case of both No Country and Slumdog, they were clear front-runners going into the Oscars, so their box-office was gravy (and, it should be pointed out, both films were already huge box-office successes by this time in the race). In a year such as this, when it’s so wide open, a less-then-stellar box-office showing could be the key.

  285. “Fincher is winning his make-up Oscar denied last year. GWTDT is winning BP.”

    I honestly think that that’s what’s going to happen. I called it last year (not here at Awards Daily but somewhere else). At least the Fincher fanatics can finally shut the hell up.

  286. “Only reason that they missed Spielberg is Lincoln 2012 and this film will win both DGA and OSCAR. TRUST ME.”

    “But weren’t people making this same kind of post last year around this time about Spielberg and War Horse?”

    Let”s live and see. Next year i”ll post this lines after Lincol”s win

  287. jjkgfja

    “Though I thought Fincher added elegance and style to the material”

    and that is all he is good for. his work is pretty much skin deep, if the script has depth itll have depth. if it doesnt, it wont. he’s the most overrated director in the world right now, next to darren aronofsky and tarantino. gen-X is desperate to have their film heroes though.

  288. Now that it’s clear Dragon Tattoo will earn between $200mil and $300mil worldwide, comes as no surprise Sony has greenlit the 2 sequels.

    Fincher wants to do 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea next, but he’s already said if he completes the trilogy then he’d shoot both sequels back-to-back because the second and third books “are very much one story” and “crazy” to shoot them separately.

    It would be a tight turnaround to finish up post-production on 20,000 Leagues in time for the start date Sony wants for the sequels — but doable.

    I think it will all come down to Zaillian’s screenplays. If Fincher likes them, he’ll sign on. If he doesn’t he’ll pass the torch.

    Either way I’m happy. Badass Rooney? Moar!

  289. Robert A.

    Considering The Artist a box-office “flop,” though, is a bit of a stretch. The movie only cost $15 million to make and has presently earned about half of that back in limited release. I read that Harvey plans to go wide with the movie after Oscar nominations are announced, which should help draw a larger audience. I think at the worst The Artist will be marginally profitable, and more likely it will be moderately profitable.

    When a movie doesn’t cost a lot to make, it doesn’t have to make as much as more expensive movies to turn a profit.

  290. Craig Z

    Both No Country and Slumdog (a whopping 45 Million and 31 Million at this point of the race) had much wider release than The Artist has. The Artist is only playing in a couple hundred theaters at the moment. Maybe you should wait a little before you brand it a failure.

  291. I`m not a Fincher fanatic nor Tattoo fan but Fincher >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Malick. And at least the public has seen Fincher`s movie and will have the idea what was nominated for BP (or maybe even what won BP), as opposed to yet another limited release snob favorite.

    And why is Fincher singled out as director who shouldn`t be there instead of Malick? How about that guy who made a silent movie? or Payne?

  292. P.S/ Spielberg will win OSCAR for Tintin.

  293. Hazanavicious will win Director and The Descendants will win Picture.

  294. Does Hollywood have an axe to grind with Terrence Malick? How can The Tree of Life, nomatter how paltry it’s box office, be ignored here after all the awards Malick has won so far? They’re jealous, that’s my opinion!

  295. @Robert A et al

    The Artist has return its costs already in France only.

  296. Manrico’s DEAD WRONG.

    Good: No Malick
    Bad: No Spielberg

  297. Robert A.

    “Only reason that they missed Spielberg is Lincoln 2012 and this film will win both DGA and OSCAR. TRUST ME.”

    “But weren’t people making this same kind of post last year around this time about Spielberg and War Horse?”

    Let”s live and see. Next year i”ll post this lines after Lincol”s win.”

    ***
    Just make sure you also post it if Lincoln doesn’t win.

  298. It’s 100% apparent now that Woody Allen WILL be receiving a best director nomination this year. The Academy has always loved him and now they finally have a critically praised and financially successful film to reward him for. I would say he also just missed for Match Point a few years ago. It’s too good of a narrative and they won’t pass it up. I’m also thinking Corey Stoll could receive a surprise best supporting actor nomination even though he has hardly received any precursor attention (outside of a Spirit award). It’s a no guts no glory pick, but that category is so out of whack that anything could happen outside of Brooks, Branagh, and Plummer.

    I don’t think the DGA will line up with Oscar 100%. Scorsese, Allen, and Hazanavicius are in. Payne is very, very likely although I would put him at fourth right now. Will the Academy rally around The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo? If you had asked me a few weeks ago I would say not a chance in hell, but the film has been killing it in precursors. I think Mara will knock out Glenn Close, but I’m not sold on Fincher yet. I think Spielberg, or yes, Malick could take his place. It will be very, very interesting to see who pulls through.

  299. rufussondheim

    Woody Allen films you should see: (I’m no Woody Allen expert, probably only have seen half of his films)

    Match Point, Mighty Aphrodite, Bullets over Broadway, Husbands and Wives, Crimes and Misdemeanors, Hannah and Her Sisters, The Purple Rose of Cairo, Manhattan, Annie Hall.

    I think those 9 are probably the best of the lot, although I am sure nearly everyone will probably disagree.

    Even I disagree. I love Zelig and Interiors, two movies that most would not have near the top of their lists.

    That’s one good thing about Woody Allen, every film of his has at least some merit, I think. You may end up hating a particular film, but at least it’s idiosynchratic enough that it’s not similar to anything else you’ve seen (other than other Woody Allen movies). He’s one of those rare truly original moviemakers, he’s far more influential than influenced.

    ——–

    Just because the DGA did not think to nominate Malick, doesn’t mean the film is without merit. I’m sure every director who voted this year would readily agree that there are more than 5 good films released this year. Not being included in the top 5 is not shameful.

    I fully expect Malick to take the place of Fincher when the Oscar noms come out. And for Tree of Life to get a Best Pic nomination.

  300. Roberto

    I do not think The Help will receive an Oscar nomination for best director.

    It is my opinion that if there were only 5 nominees the pictures selected would be “Hugo”, “The Descendants”, “The Artist”, “Moneyball” and “War Horse”. Since there will be between 5 to 10 nominees I like 3 more to be included: “Midnight in Paris”, “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” and “Harry Potter”. I do not get why “The Help” is gaining such a big status in the race. It is a very good movie but I think it does not have the elements and potential of the other movies, previously mentioned.

    I might be unfair since “The Help” is the only film that I watched on video. It is disapponting for me to see how the casts of other movies like “The Girl with the Dragon Tatto” or “Moneybal” were not chosen by the Screen Actor’s Guild but “The Help” was.

    The subject of “The Help” is very important but does not reach the levels of other movies in the 80’s like “The Color Purple” or “Mississippi Burning” or “Driving Miss Daisy”.

  301. rufussondheim

    It will be interesting to see if The Artist does improve once it goes wide and when they can slap “Nominated for 9 Academy Awards” on all of the ads. I have my doubts, but I’m inclined to think it will do well. I haven’t even seen any ads for the movie on TV yet, so I’m inclined to think that the marketing blitz has even begun yet.

    I still think the threshold is around 40 Million. If it doesn’t have that by the time the final ballots need to be turned in, I don’t think it will win.

  302. Tero Heikkinen

    Damn, my previous comment was meant for another thread. Ignore.

  303. I am not happy about the Malick absence in favor of Woody Allen. MIP was a cute movie but other than that nothing genius, nothing like the Tree of Life. Regarding Fincher I say why not since they completely snubbed him last year with a much better movie.It still seems a pretty boring year to me but what do I know…

  304. rufussondheim

    Also, I think The Descendants will get a big increase in box office when the nominations come out, as will Hugo, so don’t think those films are done yet.

  305. “Only reason that they missed Spielberg is Lincoln 2012 and this film will win both DGA and OSCAR. TRUST ME.”

    “But weren’t people making this same kind of post last year around this time about Spielberg and War Horse?”

    Let”s live and see. Next year i”ll post this lines after Lincol”s win.”

    ***
    Just make sure you also post it if Lincoln doesn’t win.

    ########

    I promise i”ll post but sure with win

  306. Tero, I’ll move it over. (in reply to OCO300, right?)

  307. Daveylow

    The Woody Allen films I’ve enjoyed the most:

    Bananas, Manhattan, Annie Hall, Hannah and Her Sisters, Broadway Danny Rose, Bullets Over Broadway, Alice, Purple Rose of Cairo, Sweet and Lowdown, Radio Days, Husbands and Wives, Another Woman, Vicky Christina Barcelona.

  308. @Ryan Adams “Either way I’m happy. Badass Rooney? Moar!”

    Oh, please. The sequel books and movies are subpar so there is nothing to look forward unless you prefer Fincher to waste time with the franchise that peaked with the first book/movie. And Jennifer Lawrence is far more badass in Hunger Games but since her character isn`t LGBT like Lisbeth, you won`t moar and roar over sequels to that movie. Hell, Charlize looks much more badass in that Snow White movie, but unless she plays a LGBT like Rooney, she won`t be hyped around here come Oscar time, although her role might actually result in BSA. That category loves OTT villains.

  309. Jennifer Lawrence is far more badass in Hunger Games

    How cool that you already got to see it!

    You seem a little bit more hung up on the whole LGBT thing than I am. Never entered my mind today.

  310. WTF was this all about?
    And Jennifer Lawrence is far more badass in Hunger Games but since her character isn`t LGBT like Lisbeth, you won`t moar and roar over sequels to that movie. Hell, Charlize looks much more badass in that Snow White movie, but unless she plays a LGBT like Rooney, she won`t be hyped around here come Oscar time

    You have seen The Hunger Games? And, are you homophobic or what? What does LGBT have to do with ANYTHING?

  311. Wow, Fincher AND Allen – that to me is a big surprise! Now Spielberg has been snubbed by both the Globes and the DGA. Will these five movies be our Best Picture nominees plus The Help and Moneyball? Is War Horse really dead in the water?

  312. unless she plays a LGBT like Rooney, she won`t be hyped around here come Oscar time

    why you mad about us outing Thatcher & Marilyn?

  313. RobertlowercaseA

    “I fully expect Malick to take the place of Fincher when the Oscar noms come out. And for Tree of Life to get a Best Pic nomination.”
    It is possible, but highly unlikely. Remember Malick got a DGA nomination for “The Thing Red Line”?. This film failed to get PGA,DGA,WGA,SAG. It is wishful thinking to think this film’s chances for Best picture and directing nod,sorry.

  314. 5 great directors, happy for each and everyone. Scorsese should win instantly for every pictures he does, in my opinion only Masterpieces. Fincher has made 3 1/2 masterpieces in a row, The Girl with the Dragon Tatoo is the half. Woody Allen is a God, does he need a DGA nod for his last “night in Paris”? not so sure…
    Hazanavicius should win for his it’s the best achievement in directing among the five nominated. Payne has his own style, even if I believe it’s more a screenwriter achievement than a director one for this movie.
    The thing that leaves me speechless is people who supposedly love Cinema enjoying and celebrating the fact Terrance Malick was not nominated. I’m NEVER happy when Scorsese, Malick, Coppola, Altman, Kubrick, Wilder, Lean, etc… aren’t recognized for their contribution to the 7th Art. The tree of Life is a Sistine Chapel of a Film, I understand it cannot be totally embraced by contemporary audience and even by the industry, but that does not diminish its greatness and certainly is not something to be cheering about.

  315. Where do people draw the connection between Fincher’s DGA nomination and Rooney Mara knocking Glenn Close out of the race?
    People like to point to precursors as an indication of who’s going to be frontrunner. Yet, where are the precursors for Rooney Mara??? No SAG nomination either.

  316. SAG ignored GWTDT, many people blamed the late release, lack of screeners and the embargo on critics. It really was odd. Considering that’s one hell of an ensemble cast.

  317. Also, I don’t think Sony ever even thought of this movie as a contender and didn’t bother pushing it. It seems even with all this momentum they are still neglecting to push it in that way. I’ve not seen any FYC style ads at all….or ads period for that matter. Once it was released it seems like they just dropped it. Which really says something, considering it remains so strong at box office just on all the good word of mouth and buzz. It’s held stronger than any holiday release.

  318. David Fincher getting in seems like a very transparent attempt to “make up” with him following last year’s egregious snub, a technicality that would be far more palatable if The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo were truly exceptional, which by all means it isn’t. Don’t get me wrong; Dragon Tattoo isn’t terrible, just terribly disappointing. It’s Fincher at his most hesitant and restrained, abiding strictly to the film’s source material whereas he should’ve taken some drastic artistic liberties (fleshing out the Harriet Vanger thread and its attendant mystery, crisper dialogue that wasn’t so exposition heavy, etc). The end result is a technically superb film that, despite the “too much anal rape” its champions have wielded like a cudgel, contains content that is neat, tidy, and conservative. I got quick cutaways from graphic violence and sexual activity that reeked of condescension and horror-avoidancy, leaving me unaffected and oddly detached. It would make a lovely computer screensaver, however.

    Now that that rant is out of the way, I can live with Michel Hazanavicius, Woody Allen, or Martin Scorsese winning Best Director, with a slight preference towards Hazanavicius. I won’t go anywhere near an Alexander Payne film following my largely negative reactions to The Descendants and Sideways; and Election seemed so promising!

  319. Tero Heikkinen

    “The thing that leaves me speechless is people who supposedly love Cinema enjoying and celebrating the fact Terrance Malick was not nominated.”

    Maybe they don’t love Cinema as much as plain storytelling.

    “The Tree of Life is a Sistine Chapel of a Film, I understand it cannot be totally embraced by contemporary audience and even by the industry, but that does not diminish its greatness and certainly is not something to be cheering about.”

    I sign everything you said.

  320. Robert A.

    “Where do people draw the connection between Fincher’s DGA nomination and Rooney Mara knocking Glenn Close out of the race?
    People like to point to precursors as an indication of who’s going to be frontrunner. Yet, where are the precursors for Rooney Mara??? No SAG nomination either.”

    I think people are wondering if the precursor strength of TGWTDT will somehow be enough to pull Mara onto the Best Actress list. TGWTDT clearly has established some late-in-the-game heat (PGA/DGA/WGA), so people are wondering just how deeply that heat may extend. Could it pull Mara onto Best Actress, or not?

    SAG nominations came out before TGWTDT was released and before it started gaining its momentum. It’s also important to remember that Close doesn’t exactly have an immaculate precursor record either. She didn’t win any of the critic awards for Best Actress (even Mara won St. Louis!). Close also didn’t get a BFCA nod. Close has a Globe nomination (as Mara does) and a SAG nomination. In short, the only difference between Close and Mara is that Close has the SAG nomination. True that’s a great nomination to have in your corner, and at the moment it still probably gives Close a bit of an edge. But Mara has the advantage of starring in what looks now to be a Best Picture nominee.

    Plus, remember every now and then someone makes it onto the list without many precursors. Examples: Bardem last year. Maggie G. a couple years ago. Laura Linney in 2007. Etc. In the end, the precursors light the way, but they aren’t always 100%.

  321. Re-reading the list (and comments here), I’m thinking it’s likely that DGA and Oscar will not line up exactly the same this year. While the difference is often one nominee, this year we could easily see two, possibly 3, names on Oscar’s list that were not on the DGA. I also still sense that we’re going to have a split between director and pic this year.

    I don’t have the least problem with the DGA list, but it is unusual that you could easily replace up to 4 names and it would still look good. That’s how broad the pickings are this year.

  322. Edkargir

    I do not think Fincher should have been nominated this year. He should have won last year . I think the 5 directors nominated were better than Malick.

  323. @RobertA.

    I agree with you. Mara has momentum (as does TGWTDT) that’s running just under the surface and I think it’s going to carry her into the nominations. I think that will continue to build.

    Close stalled just before the SAG noms and was carried into that one on fumes.

  324. What a year. There are lot of Oscar-worthy directors this year, it will be painfull to see some being left out.

    My Prediction:
    Terrence Mallick – The Tree of Life
    Michael Hazanavicius – The Artist
    Alexander Payne – The Descendants
    Woody Allen – Midnight in Paris
    Martin Scorsese – Hugo

    NGNG: Lars Von Trier – Melancholia (it would be awesome)

    Tate Taylor isn’t getting nominated, neither is the guy that directed Braidsmaids. Spielberg, Fincher, Bennett, Refn and McQueen still have an outside shot, in my opinion. Other than that, IT WOULD BE AMAZING TO SEE THE DIRECTOR OF “A SEPARATION” (whose name i can’t recall) NOMINATED!

  325. Matthew D.

    I honestly think a lot of the ‘cheering’ for Malick being ignored is simply because a large number of people, before this year, probably had no idea who the hell he was. He is the most reclusive major American filmmaker and the last film he released that received -real- attention (before Tree of Life) was The Thin Red Line – 13 years ago. So all of the Fincher fanboys will of course jump for joy when their man gets in ahead of some dude they couldn’t care less about. It’s sad and kind of pathetic, but it is what it is.

  326. It’s sort of unfair what’s being done to War Horse. It’s a good film. Not Spielberg’s best. And definitely not a perfect film, but it deseves a BP nomination. I’ve always defended there should be space for all the kinds of films in BP: dramas, epics, comedies, animation, blockbusters and even docs. What happens is that I don’t think big epics appeal to public and industry the way they did in the past. Spielberg deseves the nomination.

    And something is really helping Fincher this year: the industry realized the big mistake they made by not giving him the Oscar last year and now are trying to repair things this year.

    I’d love to see the BIG TRIO (Spielberg-Scorsese-Allen) nominated with my favorite filmaker from the new generation (Fincher). Unfortunatelly one of them will be out.

    With the rise of TGWDT, Close or Swinton may prepare to leave the Oscars lineup.

  327. Joao Mattos

    Glenn Close is gonna be nominated. IMO, the lady that will be snubbed is Tilda.

  328. steve50

    “the lady that will be snubbed is Tilda.”

    With a field as wide as this year, I don’t think there will be any “snubbing”. There just won’t be enough chairs when the music stops.

  329. “She didn’t win any of the critic awards for Best Actress (even Mara won St. Louis!).”

    Maybe not American ones, but Glenn won Best Actress at the Tokyo International Film Festival

  330. The Great Dane

    Remember, the odds are against this lineup being the Oscar line up. Only twice in the last 10 years has the DGA Top 5 been the Best Picture OR Best Picture lineup at Oscar.

    Fincher could easily be this year’s Christopher Nolan – a DGA nom to a visionary director who made a commercial film that just didn’t “click” with the Academy and was left out.

    There’s even a chance of this lineup only matching 3/5, which has also happened a couple of times the last 10 years.

    So it would actually not be smart (statistically speaking) to think that these 5 are now the Top 5 in either Best Picture or Best Director.

    If Fincher DOES get an Oscar nomination (which just still sounds weird this year, no matter how great Dragon Tattoo is), I can’t imagine Mara not coming along for the ride.

    In such a weird year, anyting can still happen, so the Fincher spot could go anywhere. I just don’t hope people think he has a chance of actually winning the DGA (or the Oscar) for Dragon Tattoo.

    War Horse? The Help? Even Tree of Life, Bridesmaids – where do they stand now? Was Fincher actually in 4th place, and if so, who was in 5th place?

    But all Scorsese/Allan/Payne fans, hold your breath. The Artist must still be considered the frontrunner, and after Tom Hooper winning the DGA and the Oscar, it’s clear that it doesn’t matter what legendary talent you’re up against – it’s what film people fall in love with. So the voters don’t care if Scorsese/Allan/Payne are due/legendary/groundbreaking – if an unknown director made a film that they liked better, they would vote for him. If ever there was a split year waiting to happen, it would have been last year. Split years rarely happen with BD/BP, so if there’s a film that seems like a frontrunner, predict that director and not someone else just because of who they are.

    And to the whole “Lincoln WILL win next year”: Riiight… “Spielberg will get another Best Picture Oscar” is what they say to every serious (read: baity) film he has made since Schindler. Saving Private Ryan, Amistad, War Horse, Munich – all looked like surefire Best Picture winners on paper. And what happened? Lincoln is a crazy bet at this moment. There’s no reason to think it COULD win. Why? Because it’s Spielberg? Because it’s a true story? Because it’s historic? Because it’s serious? Because he’s working with great actors? Spielberg has tried all of that since Schindler already and failed with the Academy EVERY SINGLE TIME since Schindler. It’s almost 20 years since Schindler. Where’s the considency? Where are all the masterpieces in those years? In general, his films become increasingly mediocre. WHY should Lincoln be his return to form? Shouldn’t Amistad, War Horse and Munich have been? Nothing points to any evidence that Lincoln should be considered a frontrunner or a masterpiece in any way.

  331. rufussondheim

    Robertlowercasea, I am convinced you read your own posts far more than any others.

    Since, clearly, you haven’t been paying attention, I’m kind of trying to avoid the whole precursor trap. These methods may have worked in the past, but the voting system was different in the past. You can use them as a guide, but to use them at the exclusion of other pieces of readily available data is foolhardy. The guilds, each flawed in its own way, are merely a piece of the puzzle. Yes, I believe it’s smart to pay attention to them, and I do, but I am not going to be beholden to the pre-cursers as you seem to be.

    This year is about passion. No other film has more passionate followers than The Tree of Life. They are passionate simply because the film is unique. There’s nothing out there like it. Only a small minority needs to put it at #1 for it to be in. I think it should get that fairly easily.

    But even outside of that. I’ve been using the critics top 10 lists as my main source of information. They are surprisingly effective, especially if you strip away the types of films that the academy almost consistently overlooks.

    If you look at the last 9 years, the #1 film got nominated 8 of the 9 times, the one time it didn’t was when the #1 film was Wall-E, which is a type of film the academy generally overlooks.

    The Tree of Life is #1 this year. It has major star power (Brad Pit, Sean Penn) a revered director (Malick) in its favor. Its by no mean an obsure independant so it can’t be automatically stripped away.

    When you hold these two thoughts at the same time, it’s #1 and there is a new nominating process this year, I don’t think it can be overlooked no matter how many precursors it fails to get.

    Granted, I don’t think it’s a lock (I have it at #7) like I once did. I have lowered it a bit because of its lack of precursors, but I still think it has at least a 50/50 shot at getting in.

    And since you want brag about your laurels, here are mine. I spent the summer and fall consistently sayingt that Hugo was going to be a major player when most overlooked it entirely. I was right about that. I also have spent most of the last month saying that War Horse and Spielberg likely won’t make the cut, and more and more people are coming around to my point of view.

    I think I’m holding my own against people like you, RobertlowercaseaA.

  332. Someone

    Thank God that Malick wasn’t nominated. Taylor and Miller also don’t deserve the nom. Yeah – I completely agree that von Trier or Asghar Farhadi (the director of THE SEPARATION) deserve the Academy Award nomination more than Fincher or Payne but I can live with this lineup and I would be satisfied if Hazanavicius or Allen won this award.

  333. Julian the emperor

    As many others in this thread I’m beginning to sense a possible Mara nomination. Unfortunately I’m sure it will be at the expense of Swinton, something I would hate to see happen. But it’s Oscar in a nutshell: the money maker tramples the little film underfoot. Besides, how does Swinton compete with all the flashy magazine covers Mara is doing? It will be hard for the Academy to resist this onslaught of TGWTDT hype:(

  334. Edkargir

    Open letter to the DGA

    I loved The Kings Speech but it was not the best directed film of the year. Your choice of Hooper was one of your worst choices in the history of your guild. Don’t fuck up again this year.
    The best directed film of 2011 was
    MICHEL HAZANAVICIUS

    Sincerely.
    Ed

  335. Edkargir

    Sorry for the language above but I could not come with a better word.

  336. Julian the emperor

    rufussondheim: yeah, you seem to be on the right track with WH…it’s certainly going in the direction that you predicted all along. The way I see it, Moneyball is in a vulnerable spot right now as well, som even if TGWTDT gets a nomination (in the number 6 spot), there could still be room for TOL…it could easily be number 7 and Moneyball and Bridesmaids number 8 and 9.

  337. Spielberg should have gotten 2 Best Picture Oscars in his career: for E.T. and for Schindler’s. He should have won directing for SVP as he did but BP, for me, was the snubed The Truman Show.

  338. steve50

    I’m hoping you are right, rufussondheim. The new voting system could be the saviour of TOL, and there’s plenty of room in the BP category, unlike the guilds (not counting the PGA).

    I’m not getting the hate for TOL. To those that didn’t like it, fine, we’ll take that on face value, meaning it probably went over your head, was too much effort, or wasn’t the homogenized entertainment you prefer. Nothing wrong with that, I guess.

    It has been said here before: Tree of Life doesn’t need Oscar – it is established in its place – but Oscar sure needs Tree of Life to add some depth to its final list. Same hold true for Drive and Shame. All three will be remembered long after they roll up the red carpet and put the giant statues back in storage in a few weeks.

  339. From all those films that were up to some Oscar consideration sometime in the past year, the one that needs less the Oscars is definitely HP. It’s already the 3rd highest grossing film ever, it as zillions o fans all over the world, already sold lots and lots of DVDs… the Academy is the one that could benefit by nominating such a film… the ratings would go up and it would diversify the lineup. But in terms of diversifying the lineup, I have to say I’m already happy to see that among the frontrunners we have a family film and a pleasant comedy.

  340. Yay I got everyone right :)

  341. steve50

    Michel Hazanavicius is on Charlie Rose tonite (perfect timing).

  342. Fielding

    This is AMAZING! Go, Woody! Not only is MiP getting a Best Pic nomination, not only has it been in the top 5 since its release, but I now can safely say it’s top 3 (maybe even top 2).

    I just wish Woody would show up at the Oscars, because he’s most certainly going to win SOMETHING.

  343. Spielberg’s run of A.I. to Munich is glorious, Great Dane, and puts to shame most other filmmakers’ entire filmographies. The chief reason he hasn’t received very many DGA or AMPAS nominations since Saving Private Ryan is because he’s been primarily making decidedly *non*-“baity” films since Private Ryan. Only Munich felt like a film that belonged in the conversation over Best Picture because of its subject matter–little did many Oscar prognosticators know it would ultimately be a rather chilly paranoid ’70s thriller more than a heart-on-the-sleeve Oscar magnet.

    I don’t understand why anyone would consider Academy love to be synonymous with a director’s “return to form.” It sometimes occasionally happens as may be the case with Woody Allen this year, but all too often there are many other factors at play.

    By the same token, was Scorsese churning out mediocrities when he continuously failed to net either the coveted Best Director or Best Picture Oscar from Taxi Driver (1976) all the way until The Departed (2006)? Of course not. Only in AMPAS land is Ordinary People the superior film to Raging Bull, Redford’s direction more worthy of recognition than Scorsese’s.

  344. So happy! My top 3 films of the year get a DGA nod and I loved Midnight in Paris! Really suprised about Fincher, I honestly think GWTDT was better than War Horse so I am glad Spielberg was left off the list, still would have preferred Drive to get the last spot.

  345. Daveylow

    JP wrote: And something is really helping Fincher this year: the industry realized the big mistake they made by not giving him the Oscar last year and now are trying to repair things this year.
    ***
    I really think if the industry wanted to give Fincher the Oscar last year they would have given it to him. They are not sitting around thinking they made a mistake. It’s kind of sad that Fincher wasn’t nominated for Zodiac which is superior to TGWTDT.

  346. Oops, I meant Crimes and Misdemeanors, lol

    Anyways…I don’t get why people are saying Fincher was “compltely snubbed” last year. He wasn’t, the DGA and Oscar both nominated him did they not?

    I don’t deny that Oscar gives “make-up” awards though, similar to umpires and make-up calls. Speaking of umpires, I really hope Moneyball makes the lineup!

  347. Matthew D.

    “It has been said here before: Tree of Life doesn’t need Oscar – it is established in its place – but Oscar sure needs Tree of Life to add some depth to its final list. Same hold true for Drive and Shame. All three will be remembered long after they roll up the red carpet and put the giant statues back in storage in a few weeks.”

    Cosigned.

  348. Yes! 4 in 5, considering Fincher/Spielberg/Winding Refn for the last spot.
    I´m so happy!
    :)

  349. He was not completely snubed. He was snubed in a way because he was (and will always be) clearly better than the one who beat him. Not only him but all of the other directors who were nominated and the ones who wasn’t nominated also (Boyle and Nolan).

  350. Oscar needs Potter!

  351. In a week I think we will witness Harvey going into Harvey overdrive. The Artist will go wider and the ads will have GG Best Pic and DGA, PGA nominee screaming all over them. I think he will push it all the way to BP. Nothing else feels like it can do it.

    I’d love to see a split BP/BD.

    And agree with some above, I think Mara will get in. DragTat keeps gaining the past few weeks when so many others are leveling or dropping off.

    It really is the weirdest awards season in years.

  352. Is anyone else getting really, really tired of seeing five white heterosexual males nominated for the Best Director award? There’s a real problem here, and the fact that no one ever talks about it is troubling to me. I mean, I guess I hear people talking about it SOMEtimes, but after seeing that director’s round-table video (which was almost unbearably awkward at the end), it seems apparent to me that there’s more to discuss here than the quality of the films that were nominated. Are we just tired of talking about the lack of women being acknowledged in categories that aren’t explicitly designated for women? Where are the women in modern cinema? Why aren’t we acknowledging the work of directors like Lynne Ramsay?

    Maybe I’m just tired of seeing Alexander Payne’s face.

  353. And Glenn Close is gonna be nominated. IMO, the lady that will be snubbed is Streep.

  354. Also surprised that no one really brings up the obvious: Midnight and Allen keep getting in because this really could be the last time to acknowledge a Woody film. :(
    He’s def getting screenplay – no question about that. Locked.

  355. Fincher was not nominated for Zodiac because he didn’t want or because the studio didn’t want… 2007 was a pretty much competitive year. Whoever decided to release this film in the beginning of March, killed its chances at the Awards Season.

  356. Not enough room for middling, average films this year for War Horse. Instead Midnight in Paris, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo and The Help get in…Bridesmaids even has a good look in. At least nobody is really going for Extremely Loud.

    When films like The Tree of Life, Drive, A Separation, Tinker Tailor and Melancholia don’t get a shot.

    This year is a weak oscar year, but a great year for film.

  357. All i know is that fincher is dreading this!!! the last thing this guy wants is another race he’s involve in (in which he would not even be close to winning) to have to do the song and dance for the voters. I suspect he won’t be as involve in the interviews and the race as last year. Especially after he said he felt he was being rape. I know it’s a great thing to be nominated… but for a director of the status of fincher, being nominated and having no chance at winning i believe it’s worst than not being nominated. Having a nomination is great for someone who is trying to make a name for himself but not for fincher.

    Hazanavicius will win this with maybe a surprise by Payne.

    And the oscar for best picture will go to the artist with director to payne. It really feels like a split year. but what do i know, last year felt like the most likely split year i had ever witness up until the oscars.

  358. Something I’ll never understand: person A says that they didn’t care for The Tree of Life, so person B states that person A is ignorant, low-brow, basically a moron. You know, some of us truly adore cinema, have seen thounsands upon thousands of films, and still don’t think The Tree of Life is all that. Just deal with it without insulting us.

  359. Joseph… don’t even bother. Just accept the fact that there is a large group of ignorant people who will never understand how come they love a film and another person don’t. And because they don’t understand this is possible, their only answer is that other people are ignorant and that they don’t know cinema. As you can see they are not very bright people so don’t even sweat it.

  360. steve50

    “This year is a weak oscar year, but a great year for film.”

    I like this line. Morgan. Says it all.

    Oscar has to do something about it by being more inclusive. There are some landmark pieces they won’t include for a bizarre variety of reasons: too violent, too naked, too depressing, too popular or too confusing.

  361. only failed to predict woody allen. i placed malick instead. I think Fincher is the frontrunner now.

  362. Disagree with you guys. This is not a good year for film in general. Not the best one for Oscar-bait films. One of the worst ever for animated films. And take a look at the 5 most watched films at the top 5 most watched films of the year (the worst ever). Although we have a very very well reviewed number 1, the other 5 films in America were Transformers, Twilight, Hangover and Pirates. What a (shame of) a list!

  363. Robert A.

    “Something I’ll never understand: person A says that they didn’t care for The Tree of Life, so person B states that person A is ignorant, low-brow, basically a moron. You know, some of us truly adore cinema, have seen thounsands upon thousands of films, and still don’t think The Tree of Life is all that.”

    I love The Tree of Life, but I actually agree with this basic thought. There are legitimate reasons why someone might not take to The Tree of Life, just like there are legitimate reasons why someone might not respond to any movie. There are a handful of movies that routinely make Top 100 of All Time lists that just don’t flip my switch. I would name a few except that I don’t want to endanger my cinephile creds.

    With that said, I think some of the remarks about ignorance have more to do with the quality of some of the posts here. When you have ToL’s most vocal detractors saying stuff like, “Tree of Life sucks!” “Yay that Malick didn’t get in!” or “Pretentious piece of shit!” you have to admit it sounds…well, sort of moronic.

  364. steve50

    It was a good year for film in that there were a large number of good films made. What comes out the other end, at the oscars or the BO, is not under anybody’s control. The oscar crowd has its tastes and the cineplex audience have their preferences. not judging, just observing

  365. Is anyone else getting really, really tired of seeing five white heterosexual males nominated for the Best Director award?

    No. Some of my best friends are white.

    Also surprised that no one really brings up the obvious: Midnight and Allen keep getting in because this really could be the last time to acknowledge a Woody film.

    Shit. Are they discontinuing the Oscars soon? D: Why didn’t anyone tell me? *cries*

  366. Sorry.

    “This year is a weak oscar year, and a suck rhymes-with-stick year for film.”

    Fixed.

  367. “I agree with you. Mara has momentum (as does TGWTDT) that’s running just under the surface and I think it’s going to carry her into the nominations. I think that will continue to build.”

    God help us. :o

    It’s just too bad Butter was pushed back to this March; I believe Jennifer Garner would’ve sealed an Oscar nomination (saw it at Philly Film Festival last year). Stone-cold mortal lock.

  368. Tero Heikkinen

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sY4f_83t_rw

    The REAL opening credits of Dragon Tattoo – if you have not seen it.

  369. steve50

    “God help us.”

    She probably has other priorities, Paul.

    and Antoinette – you slay me with every post!

  370. Julian the emperor

    “Is anyone else getting really, really tired of seeing five white heterosexual males nominated for the Best Director award?”

    Jesus. Political correctness gone berserk.

    Well, I guess, humor is the best way to approach humorlessness. Antoinette is a brilliant case in point:)

  371. Jake G.!

    I think its funny how people are all of a sudden predicting dragon tattoo becaus of the guilds but ive never taken it off my best pic predictions that I started in january and ive always had faith in the movie!

  372. Jake G.!

    War Horse will get a Best Pic nod no doubt! It was nominated for golden globe drama, I even think it could win both oscars and globes!

  373. Robert A.

    @ Jake G!

    War Horse could still pull off a BP nomination, I suppose, but it’s highly doubtful it will win, at this point. Movies without a DGA nomination rarely win Best Picture.

  374. 8 films remain in the race! Artist, descendants, Hugo, MIP, the help, war horse, moneyball and TGWTDT. the question now is: all of them will be nominated or one of the last 3 will be left out?

  375. rufussondheim

    It was probably number 6 on the list of movies (meaning it probably tied for fifth (my guess is with Ides of March) but didn’t get a director nod. Throw in the fact that The Artist and Midnight in Paris were in Comedy and you’re looking at #7 or #8 ranking there, and, heck, maybe even behind Bridesmaids. And this is the GGs, who notoriously include subpar films that even the Academy won’t recognize.

    War Horse is done.

  376. Daveylow

    I really think the Oscar for best director is going to Scorsese or Hazanavicius this year. How many times have foreign directors won for director?

  377. brendon

    Guh, Fincher getting nominated.

    At least it’s not “Tate Taylor” or whatever it was that directed The Help.

  378. RobertlowercaseA

    rufussondheim, it doesn’t really matter. Tree of Life is officially out of the race anyway. You are allowed to rant and rave or justify TOL’s not being recognized by the film industry in general. I personally think it is a very pretentious movie, and I think that is why it keeps getting “overlooked”. It is all about the story, the characters, but Tree of Life, in my opinion, is like a tribute to cinematography, it is visual over substance. Maybe that is why it keeps missing out.

  379. Jake G.!

    @Robert A.
    War Horse hasnt lost any steam, i dont care if it wasnt nominated for guilds, its a big favorite over The Help, Moneyball, Midnight, TGWTDT! Is The Descendants really going to beat War Horse? Is Hugo(too colorful and childish) really going to beat War Horse? Its only competition is The Artist and The Artist doesn’t deserve best picture of the year!

  380. Robert A.

    “War Horse hasnt lost any steam, i dont care if it wasnt nominated for guilds, its a big favorite over The Help, Moneyball, Midnight, TGWTDT!”

    Huh? It’s a “big favorite” even though it was largely overlooked by the guilds? That makes no sense. Movies that win Best Picture most often make a strong showing with the guilds first.

    “Is The Descendants really going to beat War Horse? Is Hugo(too colorful and childish) really going to beat War Horse?”

    Yes.

    “Its only competition is The Artist and The Artist doesn’t deserve best picture of the year!”

    It certainly deserves it over War Horse!

  381. Scott: Can I ask for some guidance on Woody Allen films? I’ve got Sleeper and Crime and Punishment on my laptop

    Ryan: Woody’s Crime and Punishment is right up there with Hanna and Her Sisters Karamazov

    Like, like, like!

  382. any list without malick this year is a joke

  383. Too Many AJs

    I think Tree of Life can kiss its Oscar presence goodbye, but I’m not sure we can count out War Horse just yet. I’m wondering if War Horse becomes this year’s Atonement or The Reader: the film that’s mostly shunned by the major guilds, but admired by the Academy. Still, those films were embraced by the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs in a way that War Horse doesn’t seem to be, plus The Reader had a key SAG win and Atonement at least managed to be one of the truckload of films nominated by the Art Directors’ Guild each year. Of course, War Horse has a PGA nom in its back pocket and I’m guessing it’ll show up in the ASC noms tomorrow. So I’m really not sure.

  384. Craig Z

    “How many times have foreign directors won for director?”

    Last year, and 2008 and 2005 and 2003 and 2002….

  385. BrandStrategyGuru

    when looking at DGa nominations, there are 2 meanings as far as the Oscars go: one is the Best Director nominations and one is the Best Picture.
    Most of us already said that even if Tate Taylor gets nominated for a DGA (thus securing the BP nomination for The Help), his chances for Best Director nom at the Oscars are weak.
    But now that he was left out of the DGA, does it mean The Help’s chances for a BP nom are shaky?

    I would think the when it comes to BP nominations, this is likely:
    1. The Artist
    2. The Descendants
    3. Midnight in Paris
    4. Hugo

    5. The Help
    6. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
    7. Moneyball
    8. Warhorse

  386. Chriswpg

    Wow indeed! Thought Fincher didnt have a shot! There seems to be 4 locks and that includes Woody Allen. Question is if the DGA goes 5 for 5 with oscar. Speilberg and Malick still have a shot.

  387. However Soielberg will win Oscar for Tintin and he also can win BP or get nominee for BD. But his year will definitely be 2012 with LINCOLN.

  388. Craig Z

    Anybody got predictions for the ASC tomorrow?

    These four seem easy

    The Artist
    Hugo
    War Horse
    Tree of Life

    After that I’m not so sure…
    GWTDT? Midnight in Paris? Moneyball? Drive? TTSS?

    Right now I’ll guess Dragon Tattoo but I don’t know.

  389. Serra should get in for Deathly Hallows! Speaking of Potter and cinematography, I remembered another foreign film I’ve had a bit of interest in seeing…A Very Long Engagement, mainly cause it was shot by Bruno Delbonnel (the DP of Half-Blood Prince, Amelie, and Across the Universe)

  390. Dear DGA: Thank you.

  391. Craig Z

    A Very Long Engagement is absolutely beautiful Scott.

    Have you seen House of Flying Daggers? Release the same year and if you are interested in cinematography you must see this one. My god the colors!

  392. BrandStrategyGuru

    And if I had to predict the wins for now, they would be:

    Best Picture: The Artist
    Best Director: Michel Hazanvicius – The Artist
    Best Actor: Brad Pitt – Moneyball
    Best Actress: Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady
    Best Supp. Actor: Christopher Plummer – Beginners
    Best Supp. Actress: Melissa McCarthy – Bridemaids
    Best Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
    Best Cinematography: The Tree of Life (its only nomination)
    Best Editing: War Horse
    Best Visual Effects: Harry Potter
    Best Makeup: Albert Nobbs
    Best Production Design: Hugo
    Best Costume Design: My Week with Marilyn
    Best Score: Hugo
    Best Sound Editing: War Horse
    Best Sound Mixing: War Horse
    Best Song: Albert Nobbs

  393. BrandStrategyGuru

    sorry guys, the best song is supposed to be at the end of my post. I was typing from my cell phone and the cursor jumps around…

    [fixed – Ryan]

  394. Craig, no I haven’t, but I looked up the winner and was surprised to see it was The Aviator. Perhaps I’m just not remembering well but I feel even The Phantom of the Opera was a more worthy candidate.

  395. Shouldnt there be DVD screeeners of these films circulating by now? I live 1000 miles from a cinema, damn!

    400 comment posts, can’t read them all, but I agree with someone who wrote about Midnight In Paris being poorly acted. I agree: only the supporting roles in that movie stand out (I absolutely love Woody Allen, though). As for Fincher not being as good a director as Malik (who I feel was snubbed here), well…. Se7en, Fight Club, Zodiac, Benjamin Button, The Social Network – I disagree.

    T.

  396. @tufus – yeah there’s a DVD Screener of you downloading a DVD Screener. It’s pretty good.

    I preferred it in the cinema though…you only get to see it the first time once, choose your own path.

  397. Interesting DGA nominations this year. Nothing really shocks me anymore. So, I’m just wondering — neither Fincher nor Allen (nor Spielberg for that matter) have picked up a single critics award for direction this season. Yet Malick took home a few, including LA, Chicago and NSFC). Last year Fincher/TSN dominated the critics prizes until DGA and the other guilds turned away in favor of The King’s Speech. So are the critics awards becoming less and less influential in shaping the Oscar race?

  398. Spielberg will win for Tintin and next year will win all major awards for LINCOLN
    MARK MY WORDS

  399. I’m just writing here because my compulsion wants 400 posts…

    @Scott – may I recommend Pasolini’s Salo to you. the film makes great use of the colors brown and red.

  400. Matthew D.

    “As for Fincher not being as good a director as Malik (who I feel was snubbed here), well…. Se7en, Fight Club, Zodiac, Benjamin Button, The Social Network – I disagree.”

    Badlands, Days of Heaven, The Thin Red Line, The New World, The Tree of Life.

    Almost no other filmmaker in history can hold up to this, much less David Fincher.

  401. Hell no Mattoc! lol, I’m familiar with that film having seen it on a most controversial films of all time list.

  402. Matthew D. says:
    January 10, 2012 at 12:58 am
    “As for Fincher not being as good a director as Malik (who I feel was snubbed here), well…. Se7en, Fight Club, Zodiac, Benjamin Button, The Social Network – I disagree.”

    Badlands, Days of Heaven, The Thin Red Line, The New World, The Tree of Life.

    Almost no other filmmaker in history can hold up to this, much less David Fincher.

    Malick

    B, B, n/a, n/a, D

    Fincher

    B, B, B, B, A

    And let’s not forget the under-appreciated The Game!

  403. Actually wait, I think I gave Days of Heaven a C…

  404. Nope, it was a B, but just barely at an 80. Same for Badlands. And on the other hand most of the B grade Fincher films are high 80’s.

  405. Fincher

    A, ∞, A-, C, B (Game : A)

    Malick,

    ∞, ∞, ∞, ∞, ∞

  406. On the subject of the greatest filmmakers in history, I’m curious if you guys think there are any Hitchcock films I’ve passed over that should be seen. These are all the ones that I have seen…

    The Lodger: A Story of the London Fog (1927)
    The 39 Steps (1935)
    The Lady Vanishes (1938)
    Rebecca (1940)
    Foreign Correspondent (1940)
    Suspicion (1941)
    Saboteur (1942)
    Shadow of a Doubt (1943)
    Lifeboat (1943)
    Spellbound (1945)
    Notorious (1946)
    Rope (1948)
    Stage Fright (1950)
    Strangers on a Train (1951)
    I Confess (1953)
    Dial M for Murder (1954)
    Rear Window (1954)
    To Catch a Thief (1955)
    The Man Who Knew Too Much (1956)
    The Wrong Man (1956)
    Vertigo (1958)
    North by Northwest (1959)
    Psycho (1960)
    The Birds (1963)
    Marnie (1964)
    Frenzy (1972)

  407. I know that The Trouble With Harry is the one film from the 50’s decade that Hitch dominated that I’ve yet seen and appears to be fairly well regarded, but other then that it seems I’ve maybe hit all the worthwhile ones…

  408. Tero Heikkinen

    ^ I don’t understand your scores.

    Lol at Salò. I hate the film, but there’s something fascinating about it – so much so, that I have seen it about ten times (which is not a big number for a good film). I watch Salò every time it’s on TV. I don’t know why. It’s the one I love to hate, I guess.

  409. Kinda have an itch to see The Paradine Case and Under Capricorn due to the involvement of Gregory Peck and Ingrid Bergman, respectively…however the latter also has Joseph Cotton, so it won’t be any surprise to me if it is a huge disappointment, as the IMDB score suggests it might be.

  410. Then again the one truly great film I’ve seen in which Joseph Cotton starred was a Hitchcock film. I’m referring to Shadow of a Doubt obviously.

  411. Tero Heikkinen

    SCOTT: Those are the ones you’ve SEEN? I’m impressed. You are 24. At your age I probably hadn’t seen ten Hitchcock films even.

  412. Scott, from your list. No, I cannot think of any. Hitch is a great filmmaker. I suggest watch them all again.

  413. Yes, I wasn’t kidding when I previously said I’d seen about 25 of his 53 feature films. Looks like 26 to be exact. The first one I ever saw (which was only in October of 2009) was North By Northwest, and it was one of the best films I’d ever seen. Rear Window quickly followed (and is currently my favorite film of all time) and I was hooked. Then I saw Rope, Dial “M”, Vertigo (not an extremely high favorite, but I can see why it tops lists) At this point I was thinking holy shit, does this guy making any bad (or even mediocre) films? lol. Next was Notorious, which brought me back to earth a bit, not feeling the chemistry between the leads, despite being 2 of my all time favorites in Cary Grant and Ingrid Bergman. Then Shadow of a Doubt and Strangers on a Train raised the bar again and I felt compelled to continue a quest to see if there were any really unsatisfying Hitchcock films. I found these in Rebecca and Lifeboat. Now as you might have noticed up to that point I had any seen his “American” films. I figured the British stuff wasn’t really worth watching until I discovered The Lady Vanishes on a list of screwball comedies (something else I was starting to really indulge in after seeing It Happened One Night, Bringing Up Baby, Arsenic and Old Lace, etc)

    Anyways, so I watched a few of the British films (even giving one of the silents a try) and more of the American ones here and there. Unfortunately I think I saw almost all the great ones early on but even a mediocre Hitchcock film can be better then a lot of director’s best efforts.

  414. A (90-100)

    1. Rear Window
    2. Psycho
    3. Vertigo
    4. Strangers on a Train
    5. Shadow of a Doubt
    6. Foreign Correspondent
    7. Spellbound

    B (80-89)

    8. Suspicion
    9. To Catch a Thief
    10. Dial “M” For Murder
    11. The Lady Vanishes
    12. North By Northwest (this one is an odd situation…it’s actually an A grade film but after a few re-watches it’s no longer such a favorite)
    13. Rope
    14. Frenzy
    15. The Man Who Knew Too Much (1956)
    16. Notorious

    C (70-79)

    17. The 39 Steps
    18. I Confess
    19. The Birds
    20. The Wrong Man
    21. Rebecca
    22. Marnie
    23. Saboteur
    24. Stage Fright

    D (60-69)

    25. Lifeboat
    26. The Lodger

    Anyone care to challenge? I’d be interested in seeing what others think of his films…

  415. Eh, I should probably explain better why North by Northwest is a B and Vertigo an A, when I said the latter also isn’t one of my top favorites. Well you see I’ve watch both 2 or 3 and Vertigo impresses me. Simple as that. The reason it’s not a fav is perhaps a bit silly, but the ending pisses me off (as brilliant as it is)

  416. @Mattoc – I live in an island and nearest cinema is 900 miles away on a 400+ US $ plane ride. I, in fact, buy most films in bluray form after I’ve seen them in some form. Yes I would prefer to visit a cinema and see a film as intended: I dont have that option. I buy music and videogames and movies. I am sure you have NEVER downloaded a song without paying for it.

    @Matthew D.

    “Badlands, Days of Heaven, The Thin Red Line, The New World, The Tree of Life.

    Almost no other filmmaker in history can hold up to this, much less David Fincher.”

    Days of Heaven? The New World? I rest my case.

    T.

  417. *times

  418. that should read still impresses me…damn I hate not being able to edit!

  419. Speaking of Blurays.. Fincher’s films on bluray are pure heaven. Do love the fact he shoots digitaly. And last ywar I also got The Tree of Life and The Thin Red Line in HD. Read somewhere you can pause The Tree of Life anywhere and make a wallpaper out of a shot.. tested it and its true. Cinematography on these films is without fault, I do believe this is a nom Malik’s 2011 film has in the bag, if not a win!

    T.

  420. Tero Heikkinen

    Yeah, I have paused The Tree of Life in various places so much. They are photos on your wall.

    Fincher makes great blu-rays, but he’s not the best on commentary tracks, I’m afraid. Fight Club’s “PRE-menu-selection” is funny as Hell.

    I’m curious about the island you live in. It’s not Iceland or anything like that if there are no cinemas. How small is that island?

  421. Scott, Rebecca is my favourite unfortunately for you. Beyond that, depends which day it is…

    I did have a problem with Birds & Vertgo on first sight, but you persevere with the greats and are rewarded handsomely.

    As Steve50 suggested yesterday and I recommended a month ago, watch Wages of Fear.

  422. Scott, I recommend “Les Diaboliques” (the original, not the silly remake). The best Hitchcock-movie Hitchcock never did….

  423. @ Tufus- as long as you are buying the movies later, I guess I don’t have a worry apart from you miss out on a bit…

    I am in a fortunate position and are able to get to a cinema at will.

  424. There is no Spielberg. Because^

    1. They wait for Lincoln(2012)

    2. This year they prefer simple movies (except The Artist)

    3. They probably know that Tintin can (should) win best animated feature OSCAR and they don”t want to give him another chance for Oscar in this year.

    4.War Horse released too late (After many critics groups have announced their nominees )

  425. Scott has seen that…

  426. @mecid: number 1 reason to me is War Horse is NOT a great achievement for a two time Academy Award winner and a Multibillion Power Horse of a Producer/director. War Horse is mediocre.

  427. @mecid- I disagree with all your points.

  428. What about Rooney Mara? Could we see her getting an Actress nomination after all this? If she does, I believe Tilda will get the boot… sadly.

  429. Thanks Stefan, but yeah I’ve seen it, lol. As I recall the reason it’s called “the best film Hitchcock never made” is because apparently Hitch was trying to buy the rights to make it but Clouzet beat him to it by just a few hours.

  430. Mattock, Rebecca was such nontraditional Hitchcock…though that explains why it’s the only one of his films the Academy likes enough to award Best Pic. I still can’t believe Rear Window wasn’t even nominated. If I recall correctly there’s actually like 3 or 4 times that Hitchcock was nominated for Best Director but the film nomination didn’t accompany.

  431. @scott- I’m glad he never won, like I wish Scorsese never won. And like countless other directors that have never won. Consider it some sort of badge.

  432. “SAG ignored GWTDT, many people blamed the late release, lack of screeners and the embargo on critics. It really was odd. Considering that’s one hell of an ensemble cast.”

    It isn`t odd at all. The movie is Mara show, others don`t register and don`t deserve to be nominated for best cast. She, however, deserves BA nom and I don`t even like that obnoxious character Salander and overhyped books and movies but credit where it`s due.

    And re: previous post, I`m no homophobe,WTF? I hold the membership card in “Use the Force Luke (Evans) to resist the Dark Side of the Closet” Club (we fight against his PR attempt to put him back into the closet which would be awful) die crying out loud! I just think that nobody would care to hype Salander if she didn`t like girls cause that`s the fad of the moment. And that LGBT look up to her as some kind of a good presentation of their community which is ridiculous cause the character is totaly psychotic and certainly doesn`t put anyone in postive light. Oh, well.

  433. I’m not sure how credible I think this theory about the DGA ignoring Spielberg because of Lincoln next year. Actually, I think it’s stupid.

    I highly doubt the voters are that strategic. Each film year stands alone.

    War Horse isn’t up there with the best this year. I think it was a major let down for many Spielberg fans (including myself). Why did he try and make a WWI Babe?

  434. Tero Heikkinen

    “Each film year stands alone.”

    It should be that way, but it often isn’t.

    *Fincher*

  435. rufussondheim

    Thanks, RobertlowercaseA for letting me know that The Tree of Life is “officially” out of the race. I wonder if the academy knows that. You should probably let them know just in case.

    ——

    Maybe War Horse didn’t get a DGA nomination because it wasn’t good enough. Did you ever think of that, mecid?

    ——–

    Tim H. It’s my opinion that the critics matter more than ever when it comes to the Academy and the films they choose to honor with nominations. Last year, of the top 11 films from the critics, ten of them were nominated for Best Pic.

    With the exception of The Reader, for the last 6 years, every film to get a Best Director nod was in the top 11. This is why I think an academy nod for Fincher is unlikely, it will probably go to Malick (who was #1) or Moneyball (who was #8)

    ———————–

    To the person who thought maybe The Help’s Best Pic hopes were diminished after these announcements were made yesterday. I would agree, but only slightly. I firmly believe that there is a sizable portion of the Academy that will rank this film #1 on their ballots. It’s not as loved by critics(#26, I think) as one should hope for, but it does have its appeal to a certain type of filmgoer, something that other films in the mix don’t share. (I get this just from reading comments here, I have not seen the movie)

    I don’t think it’s a lock, but at 80% probability, I think it’s a safe bet. I currently have it listed at #6 most likely, and well, if there are only five nominees, it probably won’t make it.

  436. RobertlowercaseA

    Yeah, any film that didn’t get on the Academy’s list is obviously not good enough for them, whether it is politics or not, we will never find out, but DGA, PGA, WGA, SAG can only give you a 80 percent direction of how the race is going. Nothing is absolute, I agree with you. Can The Help or Malick still score a Best Directing nomination? Absolutely, but at this point, the chances are dim, but I could be wrong.

  437. @mecid: number 1 reason to me is War Horse is NOT a great achievement for a two time Academy Award winner and a Multibillion Power Horse of a Producer/director. War Horse is mediocre.

    Is “TGWTDT” Fincher”s best or “Hugo” Scorsese”s best? Does Allen deserves best director (maybe MIP has good screenplay) for Paris? Except War Horse there were The tree of life, Ext. Loud Incredibly Close,The Help, Drive and s. The director”s work must attract people visually, it must be enough good that then some time later when we will see it we can say that it deserved it.

  438. is “Hugo” Scorsese”s best?

    Doesn’t matter. It only matters the Hugo is miles better than War Horse.

    Hugo is indeed ONE of Scorsese’s best.
    Whereas War Horse is one of Spielberg’s misfires.

  439. rufussondheim

    Before I say anything else, I want to say that I have little respect for when they pick the best movies of the year (Braveheart!) Yes, sometimes I agree with their choices, but, too often they reward what I see as complete and utter trash (A Beautiful Mind!). So if Tree of Life doesn’t get a Best Pic nomination, I won’t be surprised, They haven’t included most of my favorite films of the last decade so this will be par for the course.

    I personally don’t have much interest in what films get the Oscar, it’s just a fun diversion for me. It’s as much fun to hate the Oscars as it is to love them, in my opinion. While I don’t hate them, I don’t love them either. But I do recognize their importance and their influence on what films get seen and more importantly what films get made.

    What’s so great about the Oscars is that it brings people together who love film, and forums such as these allow people to discuss film with (mostly) intelligent people that I wouldn’t otherwise have the pleasure to meet.

    And with that, it brings attention to films I might not otherwise choose to watch. And that’s a bigger win than whether The Tree of Life gets a Best Pic nomination.

  440. Diane,
    It isn`t odd at all. The movie is Mara show, others don`t register and don`t deserve to be nominated for best cast. She, however, deserves BA nom and I don`t even like that obnoxious character Salander and overhyped books and movies but credit where it`s due.

    You have a point there. It really is her movie and you are not remembering anyone else after.

    I’m not buying your LGBT angle though. I really don’t think it has a thing to do with why people love that character. Old ladies love her and they certainly aren’t loving it b/c they are turned on (well maybe some are). People love her b/c she represents that part of all of us that’s been hurt, abused, shamed, ect and she refuses to be a victim, yet she DOES remain human. Which is what Mara brought to that role.

  441. She’s a survivor and EVERYONE loves a survivor.

  442. Matthew D.

    Mattoc says:
    January 10, 2012 at 1:18 am

    “Fincher

    A, ∞, A-, C, B (Game : A)

    Malick,

    ∞, ∞, ∞, ∞, ∞”

    Basically.

  443. I like Speilberg but there was some really good directing this year and he just didn’t make the top 5 so thats entirely possible that thats the only reason he wasn’t nominated. But the DGA love for him is well documented, but I just remembered that Speilberg and Peter Jackson caused a minor controversy when they tried to co-direct Tintin and then they said oh no only Steve is directing Peter is only producing, but then pretty much went around explaining how they pretty much did co-direct the thing and that they’ll switch titles for the sequel and that Peter was there the whole first week (out of 4) and that he was on video conference the rest of the time. Is that something the DGA would get annoyed about? or do they really only care about what it says in the credits? Also, didn’t George Lucas have a pretty big flap with the DGA a few years ago?
    What’s the history of director DGA disputes? I know Robert Rodriguez left because of Sin City.
    What’s the situation with Cloud Atlas?
    Does that kind of thing carry over to Ampas? Q still gets nominated, but he hasn’t won? Lucas and Rodriguez haven’t done anything to get nominated recently.

  444. idk if to celebrate for now or to prepare for eventual snub of TGWTDT

    I guess better to celebrate. At least the sequels are made YAY!
    haters gonna hate. its by no means a mediocre film.

    thanks for the Woody suggestions. im going to watch all of them too

  445. RobertlowercaseA

    “Braveheart” is one of the best films I have seen in a very long time. I agree with the voters’ choice that year. I don’t lose “RESPECT” for the Academy. It is their vote, their opinion. I was horrified when Crash won over Brokeback Mountain, but I didn’t lose respect for AMPAS just because they disagreed with me. I actually respect the AMPAS for seeing past the gay theme of BM and gave it the most nominations that year. It is not as though BM didn’t win anything. Ang Lee became the first Asian director who ever won the Oscars for best directing, just like Bigelow became the first woman who ever won the best director. I think the problem with Oscar watchers here, including myself is that we sort of treat it as a race, like an Olympic game, if we don’t get our way, Academy is the enemy, if our films didn’t win, it is politics. We should realize it is their choice, it is their opinion, we can only agree or disagree. It is counterproductive to blame the Oscar voters just because their “BEST PICTURE” choice doesn’t agree with ours. I am even guilty of that sometimes myself. Oh well, but I am very glad to see David Fincher, for example, unexpectedly got on DGA’s top 5, and I would not deny my “happiness” to see TOL being left out, but that is my mean streak and it is obviously personal. if TOL pulled a “The Thin Red Line”, I would be respectful of their choice, but it just so happens that so far, the industry has agreed with me( lack of PGA,DGA,WGA,SAG), but to Malick fans, nothing is certain until two weeks from today. I wish you luck. Remember, I think Sasha is right, the trick is not minding!!

  446. I’m sure that if The New World was a Ridley Scott film, fo example, it would not be praised by anyone here!

  447. Next year will be Spielberg”s. MARK MY WORDS

  448. I’m really surprised at the amount of people who say they love cinema, but can’t even appreciate how great of a film The Tree of Life is.

    You don’t need to like it, but comments like “thank god no Malick” etc just makes people come off as though they do not understand the film at all and it completely went over their head – which may not be true at all. All people who truly love film and cinema should at the very least be able to appreciate why many, many people love this film and why critics (along with Drive) have, when you take a consensus (criticstop10.com) anoited it as the best of the year.

    It is a divisive film, but I’d have some hope that people at least can appreciate why people like it, at the very very least. I think many people who love The Tree of Life could cope with that, rather than comments like “Malick sucks” “Tree of Life is horrible” and “yay no Malick”. Considering all the cinephiles and critics lining up behind it, it seems like as someone who loves cinema you could not sit back and say “that was horrible, no plot, no point”.

    Personally, I understand many, many people not liking the film. But not appreciating the film? and not appreciating why many, many critics and film lovers alike love it? That – I, and many Tree of Life lovers, can’t understand.

    Just my 2c.

  449. Morgan, thank you for that post. I couldn’t have said it better. Tree of Life is my favorite film of the year. (Granted, I haven’t seen a few of the contenders, but I doubt any of them will top my admiration of Malick’s latest masterwork)

  450. Fielding

    People say they loved Tree of Life simply because they didn’t understand it.

  451. Tero Heikkinen

    “I’m sure that if The New World was a Ridley Scott film, fo example, it would not be praised by anyone here!”

    If I had to rate it, I would give it two stars. I have given 2 stars for Malick here. He sure missfired.

    1492: Conquest of Paradise is easily the better film.

    Don’t expect everybody to love any given directors’ full catalogue. That kind of blindness (=irrational fandom) is quite rare. Even Kubrick made an average picture once, and he is probably the best ever.

  452. Tero Heikkinen

    It’s rare for people around here. Not for just anybody, my mom would just about love every film John Wayne is in.

  453. @ Tero Heikkinen My biggest problem with Malick is exactly this: he doesn’t have a broad catalogue! I can’t consider him better than Scorsese, W. Allen, Spielberg, the Coens (and don’t feel ashamed to express this opinion as many here may do) David Fincher. This only saying the American alive filmmakers. There’s no possible comparison between him and almodovar, Kubrick or Bergman, just to say a few. In his 68 years old, malick has made six films. The first two are great but not rank among Best of All Time. Thin Red Line is very well filmed but In terms of WWII dramas, I really prefer the 2 Spielberg films. the New World is a failure like you said. I can’t believe that in this space it is ”cool” to trash Gladiator and to praise A New World. the Tree of Life, like I said before, could have been a brilliant film for me if it was only the Brad Pitt part.

  454. Sorry, five films instead of six!

  455. RobertlowercaseA

    “I’m really surprised at the amount of people who say they love cinema, but can’t even appreciate how great of a film The Tree of Life is.”
    People should be allowed to dislike The Tree of Life, just because people don’t like it doesn’t mean they don’t appreciate it.
    Your problem is basically you don’t want people to dislike the film, you judge them if they don’t like TOL, you say they are unable to appreciate this film, and you say they don’t understand the film. You do realize one can understand a film and at the same time dislike it??
    There is a reason why TOL has not been recognized by the major guilds. I personally think it is visual over substance and story, that is why I didn’t like it. You can’t just go around and say people don’t appreciate TOL just because they dislike it. Just because critics love it, that doesn’t mean the rest of us have to agree with them, does it?
    TOL is an interesting film, but it is too much style over substance in my humble opinion.

  456. I do not understand how you could read my entire post and give that reply saying I’m judging everyone and won’t let people not like the tree of life. I’m doing the exact opposite.

    I said, and I quote “Personally, I understand many, many people not liking the film.”

    My whole post said that I understand that people may not like the film, and that’s fine – but at least understand why people may love it…

    My whole post was to people posting comments like “yay no malick” etc – saying that I can understand many, many people not liking the film but at least appreciate why others might love it.

    Please read through the entire post.

  457. RobertlowercaseA

    OCO, Harry Potter is not going to get any major nominations.

Leave a Comment

Warning: Do not abuse your right to comment here. You will be deleted.