It occurred to me moments ago that Tate Taylor has every reason to, in fact, be nominated for the DGA when they are announced next week. [I didn’t know it because I never saw his Tweet but In Contention’s Kris Tapley came to this conclusion yesterday but recently posted his predictions to include Tate Taylor. Other than the two of us, though, most people would consider this an upset if it came to pass].
In looking back over Oscar history since the PGA began only one film has ever gotten the PGA, the SAG ensemble and Best Picture and not gotten a DGA nod and that was Lasse Hallstrom for The Cider House Rules. That film was neck and neck with Spike Jonze’s Being John Malkovich. In the end, both directors got Oscar noms but only Jonze got the DGA. This year, there wouldn’t have been a problem putting both films in the Best Pic category. The way voting is allows for both. But we’re still looking at which movie is the Spike Jonze film and which is the Hallstrom. If The Help is the Cider House Rules (I think it’s a lot stronger than that) then another film might take that DGA slot.
At any rate, you can look at the charts below. But I think there is no reason to not predict Tate Taylor other than the fact that he isn’t well known enough. The Help is beloved across the board. It made upwards of $160 million and will be a very strong Best Picture contender. If it was anyone but an unknown like Taylor there wouldn’t even be a discussion.
The way I look at it is this — the locks are: Martin Scorsese, Hugo – the film I believe to be 2011’s best and one of Scorsese’s best.
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist – a great achievement and delightful experience
Alexander Payne, The Descendants – the height of his brilliant career so far
From there, there are two slots open. One will probably go to Woody Allen, for his beautifully realized Midnight in Paris. The other slot is saved for Steven Spielberg. This means that Tate Taylor would bump Spielberg for War Horse. It seems improbable that this would happen. Taylor could bump Woody Allen too, I suppose. But given The Help’s very strong showing in the guild nominations so far it is the logical choice, even if not the intuitive one, to predict him for the DGA. Therefore, I have no choice but to dump either Steven Spielberg or Woody Allen, and that’s going to be hard to do. In the end, I have to go with the film I think is the better movie overall and that’s Woody Allen’s Midnight in Paris. I fully expect Spielberg to be nominated but I can’t make it work with the math.
If Tate Taylor is snubbed but The Help still nominated for Best Picture (which it should be), it will only the second time since the PGA formed (which isn’t that long ago, granted) that such a phenom has occurred. I’m also not entirely certain Bennett Miller for the beautiful Moneyball or David Fincher for the dark thriller Dragon Tattoo won’t be included. I’m basing my predictions on history mostly. Certainly Terrence Malick could show up here too. It would be unusual but so what. Unusual things happen all of the time.
The directors are key to deciding how the Best Picture race goes. It is down to three groups, usually – the actors, the directors and the writers. The directors are the most influential, of course. The Ace Eddie, and the editing nomination, are right in there with the directors. Then there are the actors – the biggest group in the Academy. The Descendants, The Artist and The Help are the three strongest contenders right now, hitting all three guilds. Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball and Dragon Tattoo feel strong too.
Tate Taylor also has a great “Oscar story” in that he grew up with The Help’s author, Kathryn Stockett, and took her manuscript before it was even published and said, “I want to direct this.” When the book hit big, the studio wanted Taylor out and more well known director in. But he held his ground and eventually won out. He’s directed one film and a short prior to The Help.
2009
PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture
The King’s Speech | The King’s Speech | The King’s Speech | The King’s Speech |
The Social Network | The Social Network | The Social Network | The Social Network |
Inception | The Kids Are All Right | Inception | Inception/Kids Are All Right |
The Fighter | The Fighter | The Fighter | The Fighter |
Black Swan | Black Swan | Black Swan | Black Swan |
PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture
The Hurt Locker | The Hurt Locker | The Hurt Locker | The Hurt Locker |
Inglourious Basterds | Inglourious Basterds | Inglourious Basterds | Inglourious Basterds |
An Education | An Education | Avatar | Avatar |
Precious | Precious | Precious | Precious |
Up in the Air | Nine | Up in the Air | Up in the Air |
Avatar | Avatar | Avatar |
2008
PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture
Slumdog Millionaire | Slumdog Millionaire | Danny Boyle | Slumdog Millionaire |
Benjamin Button | Benjamin Button | David Fincher | Benjamin Button |
The Dark Knight | Doubt | Christopher Nolan | The Reader |
Frost/Nixon | Frost/Nixon | Ron Howard | Frost/Nixon |
Milk | Milk | Gus Van Sant | Milk |
2007
PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture
No Country | No Country | Joel and Ethan Coen | No Country |
There Will Be Blood | There Will Be Blood | Paul Thomas Anderson | There Will Be Blood |
Diving Bell | American Gangster | Julian Schnabel | Atonement |
Juno | Into the Wild | Sean Penn | Juno |
Michael Clayton | 3:10 to Yuma | Tony Gilroy | Michael Clayton |
2006
PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture
The Departed | The Departed | Martin Scorsese | The Departed |
Babel | Babel | Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu | Babel |
Dreamgirls | Dreamgirls | Bill Condon | Letters from Iwo Jima |
Little Miss Sunshine | Little Miss Sunshine | Jonathan Dayton/Valeri Faris | Little Miss Sunshine |
The Queen | Bobby | Stephen Frears | The Queen |
2005
PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture
Brokeback Mountain | Brokeback Mountain | Ang Lee | Brokeback Mountain |
Crash | Crash | Paul Haggis | Crash |
Capote | Capote | Bennett Miller | Capote |
Good Night, and Good Luck | Good Night | George Clooney | Good Night |
Walk the Line | Hustle and Flow | ||
Steven Spielberg | Munich |
2004
PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture
The Aviator | The Aviator | Martin Scorsese | The Aviator |
Million $ Baby | Million $ Baby | Clint Eastwood | Million $ Baby |
Finding Neverland | Finding Neverland | Stephen Daldry | Finding Neverland |
Sideways | Sideways | Alexander Payne | Sideways |
The Incredibles | Ray | Taylor Hackford | Ray |
Hotel Rwanda |
2003
PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture
The Last Samurai | In America | Sofia Coppola | Lost in Translation |
ROTK | ROTK | Peter Jackson | Return of the King |
Mystic River | Mystic River | Clint Eastwood | Mystic River |
Master and Commander | The Station Agent | Peter Weir | Master and Commander |
Seabiscuit | Seabiscuit | Gary Ross | Seabiscuit |
Cold Mountain |
2002
PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture
Adaptation | Adaptation | Roman Polanski | The Pianist |
Chicago | Chicago | Rob Marshall | Chicago |
Gangs of New York | Martin Scorsese | Gangs of New York | |
Two Towers | Two Towers | Peter Jackson | Two Towers |
My Big Fat Greek Wedding | Greek Wedding | ||
Road to Perdition | The Hours | Stephen Daldry | The Hours |
2001
PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture
A Beautiful Mind | A Beautiful Mind | Ron Howard | A Beautiful Mind |
The Lord of the Rings | The Lord of the Rings | Peter Jackson | The Lord of the Rings |
Harry Potter | Gosford Park | Christopher Nolan | Gosford Park |
Moulin Rouge | Moulin Rouge | Baz Luhrmann | Moulin Rouge |
Shrek | In the Bedroom | Ridley Scott | In the Bedroom |
2000
PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture
Gladiator | Gladiator | Gladiator | Gladiator |
Traffic | Steven Soderbergh | Traffic (won director) | |
Erin Brockovich | Steven Soderbergh | Erin Brockovich | |
Billy Elliot | Billy Elliot | ||
Almost Famous | Almost Famous | Cameron Crowe | |
Crouching Tiger | Ang Lee | Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon | |
Chocolat | Chocolat |
1999
PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture
The Cider House Rules | Cider House Rules | The Cider House Rules | |
American Beauty | American Beauty | Sam Mendes | American Beauty |
The Insider | Magnolia | Michael Mann | The Insider |
The Green Mile | Frank Darabont | The Green Mile | |
The Hurricane | M. Night Shyamalan | The Sixth Sense | |
Being john Malkovich | Being John Malkovich | Being John Malkovich |
1998
PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture
Waking Ned Divine | Waking Ned Divine | Peter Weir | Elizabeth |
Shakespeare In Love | Shakes in Love | John Madden | Shakespeare In Love |
Gods and Monsters | Little Voice | Terrence Malick | The Thin Red Line |
Life Is Beautiful | Life is Beautiful | Roberto Benigni | Life Is Beautiful |
Saving Private Ryan | Saving Private Ryan | Steven Spielberg | Saving Private Ryan (director winner) |
1997
PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture
Titanic | Boogie Nights | James Cameron | Titanic |
Amistad | The Full Monty | Steven Spielberg | The Full Monty |
L. A. Confidential | LA Confidential | Curtis Hanson | L. A. Confidential |
As Good As It Gets | As Good as it Gets | James L. Brooks | As Good as it Gets |
Good Will Hunting | Good Will Hunting | Gus Van Sant | Good Will Hunting |
1996
PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture
Fargo | Marvin’s Room | Joel Coen | Fargo |
Shine | Shine | Scott Hicks | Shine |
Hamlet | Sling Blade | Mike Leigh | Secrets & Lies |
The People vs. Larry Flynt | The Birdcage | Cameron Crowe | Jerry Maguire |
The English Patient | The English Patient | Anthony Minghella | The English Patient |
1995
PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture
Leaving Las Vegas | Mike Figgis | Babe | |
Dead Man Walking | Get Shorty | Mel Gibson | Braveheart |
Apollo 13 | Apollo 13 | Ron Howard | Apollo 13 |
Sense and Sensibility | Sense and Sensibility | Ang Lee | Sense and Sensibility |
Il Postino | Michael Radford | Il Postino | |
The Bridges of Madison County | How to Make an American Quilt | ||
The American President | Nixon |
1994
PGA | DGA | Oscar Best Picture
EXACT MATCH
Four Weddings and a Funeral | Mike Newell for Four Weddings and a Funeral | Four Weddings and a Funeral |
Forrest Gump | Robert Zemeckis for Forrest Gump | Forrest Gump |
Quiz Show | Robert Redford for Quiz Show | Quiz Show |
Pulp Fiction | Quentin Tarantino for Pulp Fiction | Pulp Fiction |
The Shawshank Redemption | Frank Darabont for The Shawshank Redemption | The Shawshank Redemption |
1993
PGA | DGA | Oscar Best Picture
The Fugitive | Andrew Davis for The Fugitive | The Fugitive |
Schindler’s List | Steven Spielberg for Schindler’s List | Schindler’s List |
The Remains Of the Day | James Ivory for The Remains Of the Day | The Remains Of the Day |
The Piano | Jane Campion for The Piano | The Piano |
In the Name Of the Father | Martin Scorsese for The Age Of Innocence | In the Name Of the Father |
1992
PGA | DGA | Oscar Best Picture
A Few Good Men | Rob Reiner for A Few Good Men | A Few Good Men |
The Crying Game | Neil Jordan for The Crying Game | The Crying Game |
Unforgiven | Clint Eastwood for Unforgiven | Unforgiven |
Scent Of a Woman | Robert Altman for The Player | Scent Of a Woman |
Howards End | James Ivory for Howards End | Howards End |