The Producers Guild – Prediction and No Guts, No Glory

I assume everyone is predicting The Artist to win here, and then win the DGA and then maybe win the SAG ensemble, with some serious heat from The Help, but if you had to choose a film that might upset, which one do you choose?

Here are a few things to note.  The first, for the past two years the Oscar race has seemed to have one film in mind for Best Picture until another one takes its place at the Producers Guild and from thence, to Oscar.  In both of these years, we had ten Best Picture nominees in the race.  The Producers Guild went to ten and then did preferential voting, just as the Academy did.  The only truly horrifying step in the race last year was how the DGA shook out.  One expected, with such visionary directors in the race, that the DGA would have decided to honor one of them.  Instead, it chose the most conventionally made, traditional “Oscar movie” – even when almost everyone (except me) thought that Fincher would win the DGA.

That’s because people were still predicting a split year.  But doing the math, there was just no way a film heading into the Oscar race with 12 nominations, that was expected to win Best Picture, was going to lose the DGA.  It was just way too rare for something like that to happen.  It turned out to be a sweeps year, both for the Social Network with the critics and for the King’s Speech, inexplicably, with the industry.

This year, everyone is expecting the Artist to take it and to take the DGA. But here’s the weird thing.  Not since Oliver! has a winner of the Golden Globe for Comedy/Musical won both Oscars for Director and Picture. Since 1968, any year when the winner of the Golden Globe for Best Comedy/Musical goes on to win Best Picture at the Oscars, the Best Director Oscar has split: Driving Miss Daisy, Shakespeare in Love, Chicago.  So the chances of Michel Hazanavicius winning the DGA, as many are predicting he will, are extremely rare.  Like, it hasn’t happened since 1968.

It’s more likely that the Globes Director will also win the DGA and the Oscar for directing and could indicate a split year and not a sweeps year.

So that brings us back to the PGA.  With ten Best Picture nominees there and a preferential ballot – you are going to see something like The Hurt Locker and The King’s Speech: the least offensive film wins.  The more divisive the film, the worse its chances in a scenario like this.  You want to be the movie that, if you’re not hitting number one, you’re still hitting two or three.  The Artist is probably a number one movie more than it is anything else but for the other nominees, what is a likely second place film?  The Descendants is absolutely a movie that will hit at number one, number two and number three.  Hugo probably is another.

Nothing would make this more interesting of an Oscar year if something other than The Artist wins, but after it took the London Film Critics it’s really hard to imagine any other film winning.  The PGA has around 4,000 voters — so it is the first massive vote (albeit preferential and not weighted) test The Artist will face.  The DGA is a bigger body and doesn’t face the preferential system – 9,000 members.  It’s hard to imagine Hazanavicius winning in that scenario, with Martin Scorsese, Alexander Payne, Woody Allen and David Fincher.  Newbies do win – and the DGA, like every other voting body, leans towards Oscar – wants to be like Oscar – wants to influence Oscar. So if they think The Artist is winning Best Picture (or when they thought Chicago was winning Best Picture) they will vote for that movie.

Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures:

THE ARTIST
Producer: Thomas Langmann

BRIDESMAIDS
Producers: Judd Apatow, Barry Mendel, Clayton Townsend

THE DESCENDANTS
Producers: Jim Burke, Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor

THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
Producers: Ceán Chaffin, Scott Rudin

THE HELP
Producers: Michael Barnathan, Chris Columbus, Brunson Green

HUGO
Producers: Graham King, Martin Scorsese

THE IDES OF MARCH
Producers: George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Brian Oliver

MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
Producers: Letty Aronson, Stephen Tenenbaum

MONEYBALL
Producers: Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz, Brad Pitt

WAR HORSE
Producers: Kathleen Kennedy, Steven Spielberg

The Producers Guild Award for Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures:

THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN
Producers: Peter Jackson, Kathleen Kennedy, Steven Spielberg

CARS 2
Producer: Denise Ream

KUNG FU PANDA 2
Producer: Melissa Cobb

PUSS IN BOOTS
Producers: Joe M. Aguilar, Latifa Ouaou

RANGO
Producers: John B. Carls, Gore Verbinski

Sasha’s prediction: The Artist, Rango
No Guts, No Glory: The Descendants 
Would blow my mind: Hugo, Dragon Tattoo, The Help

110 Comments on this Post

  1. If the PGA isn’t stupid, then Hugo definitely has a chance.

  2. Are you kidding me? The Artist is every producer’s dream.
    NGNG: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

  3. I think…
    PGA – The Descendants
    SAG – The Help
    DGA – The Descendants
    BAFTA – The Artist

  4. NGMG worst case scenario
    Bridesmaids

  5. The Artist YEAH
    Hugo YAY
    The Descendants OK

    The Help WHAT THE FUCK MUST BE KIDDING IT’S ALL WRONG

  6. I would love it if “The Help” won the PGA. I know it won’t, but that would really shake up this Oscar race cause that film is a shoo-in to win the SAG ensemble award, so the PGA would def. put it on the map for Oscar gold.

  7. Sasha Stone

    @Scary, can you imagine? That would really shake things up!

  8. My NGNG is The Help. I think BAFTA gave it a fighting chance.

  9. NGNG – The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

  10. NGNG Midnight In Paris

    PGA The Descendants

    SAG The Help

    BAFTA The Artist

  11. Yeah, NGNG for Dragon Tattoo as well.

  12. Are most people really predicting The Artist to win? This isn’t THAT kind of sweep year, methinks. It has a shot, but The Help wins because it’s more of an ensemble movie with heavy-hitting performances, the kind of everybody-gets-their-share film that the actors love to reward.

    I don’t think The Descendants has enough good performances to reward, even though it’s similarly more in the vein of the kind of actors the SAG reward.

    Bridesmaids deserves at least the second-highest number of votes, but I won’t count on a win.

    The Artist has foreign leads and the American SAG is not likely to think of it as the worthy winner.

  13. Plus it’s silent.

  14. Oops, I meant for the SAG. I fully expect The Artist to win PGA, though upsets from The Help or Hugo would not surprise me in the least, with The Help being the kind of winner the PGA often chooses instead of the Oscar frontrunner.

  15. Hugo is winning PGA, DGA and then Oscar. If it doesn’t, it’ll go

    PGA – Hugo
    DGA – Midnight in Paris
    Oscar – Midnight in Paris

    specially if Corey Stoll’s buzz thanks to the Independent Spirit nom helps him to get into the Oscar race – let’s see this tuesday.

    It’s NGNG but also my real prediction. Hugo for the 3, if not, Hugo picks up PGA and then Allen gets DGA and 3 Oscars (Picture, Director, Original Screenplay)

  16. Charming as it is, I just wonder if The Artist is too light, too tongue-in-cheek for a Best Picture winner. These other comedies that won have a certain gravitas it does not.

  17. When does the PGA announce its winners? I know it’s today, but what time?

  18. julian the emperor

    Will win: The Artist

    NGNG: Midnight in Paris, The Descendants

    Long shots: Hugo, The Help

    Should win: A Separation! (goddamn it!)

  19. Sasha Stone

    When does the PGA announce its winners? I know it’s today, but what time?

    Usually the Best Picture winner trickles in around 10pm but they start giving out awards at around 8 I’m guessing.

  20. The Help’s ace in the hole would be all the money it made; producers love sleeper hits (TKS, Little Miss Sunshine, Moulin Rouge). These are also movies that people fell in love with, the way they fell for The Help too. I’d put it 3rd most likely.

  21. Ngng Bridesmaids.

  22. Fully aware that The Artist is the frontrunner…

    PREDICTION: The Help
    NGNG : The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (TSN-guilt ?)

    The PGA sometimes goes for ‘the little film that could’ (Little Miss Sunshine, Driving Miss Daisy) and considering how much precursor-love this one got, I think this could be one of those years. It is one of only 3 (!) films that has all the important bp-nominations (PGA, HFPA, BFCA, BAFTA + SAG Ensemble), and even though it is a VERY American story, it pulled off the very British BAFTA bp-nod (in a 5-slot-system!) over films like Hugo, War Horse, The Descendants, Midnight in Paris…now THAT is support. I think we are underestimating this one…we’ll see !

    OR

    TSN-guilt might convince them to vote for Fincher’s latest masterpiece (I’ve just seen it, BRILLIANT). Wouldn’t it be fun to see a similar game only the players switched places ? The Weinstein-crowdpleaser as the early fave, the Fincher/Rudin film as the last-minute frontrunner after taking the guilds ? Frankly, I am really not that sure that Harvey will pull it off AGAIN, I think we should at least consider the possibility of a King’s Speech-backlash…and I saw AND liked The Artist, it was a wonderful little film…having said that, I wouldn’t give it bp. If Best Picture was for most charming film, sure, but if it is for BEST film…well, then there are better ones in the mix.

  23. Oh, snap, I didn’t mean to mention The Descendants, of course it got the BAFTA-bp nod, it is one of the 3 that pulled off all (clearly The Artist is the third).

  24. Brett McNeill

    NGNG: Midnight in Paris

    However my vote’s on Hugo and would be so very pleased if Bridesmaids won just to shake things up.

  25. NGNG Midnight in Paris/Girl with the Dragon Tattoo will take the PGA and turn the whole race upside down.

    I’m rooting this year for so many movies; Hugo, GWTDT, The Descendants, Midnight in Paris. Actually the only real contender that I really hated is War Horse.

    IF The Artist/The Help won any of the big awards this season I don’t think I’ll care much .. Because first of all I really liked those two movies, and second of all TKS won last year over TSN, for which almost none of the movies nominated this year are worse than TKS (well, except for War Horse) and also none are better than TSN.. So why SHOULD I care?

  26. The Other (Real) Zach

    “This year, everyone is expecting the Artist to take [the PGA] and to take the DGA. But here’s the weird thing. No film since Oliver! has won the Oscar for Director AND Picture.”

    This seems poorly worded. I get the point — no musical or comedy since “Oliver! has won the Oscat for Director AND Picture — but I had to read it three times to get it.

    NGNG: “Moneyball” or “Midnight in Paris”

  27. Brutal Benj

    NGNG: MIDNIGHT IN PARIS. Already at this early stage, it has become the prohibitive favorite for Original Screenplay; this may be the moment when it breaks out and becomes a threat in Best Picture as well.

  28. I think Sasha referenced this in an article the other day and meant that no Golden Globe-winning Comedy/Musical won the Oscars for both Picture and Director. Annie Hall won both Oscars, but lost the Golden Globe to The Goodbye Girl (Diane Keaton and Marsha Mason tied; tough year!). Interestingly, The Sting, which probably would have been classified as a comedy, was only nominated for one Globe for its script.

  29. Since Oliver! I mean.

  30. artist should win, no one else.
    p.s. sasha the category of foreign language film in your contender tracker isn’t updated, le havre has been kicked out, it’s monsieur lazhar (CANADA) that’s missing and a separation actually won BFCA so the star needs to be changed into +

  31. RobertlowercaseA

    I hope The Descendant pulls a The King Speech.

  32. I did not predict, I hope.

    I did not predict, I hope.

    I did not predict, I hope.

    I did not predict, I hope.

    I did not predict, I hope.

    The Producers Guild Award for Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures:

    THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN
    Producers: Peter Jackson, Kathleen Kennedy, Steven Spielberg

    Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures:

    THE ARTIST
    Producer: Thomas Langmann or

    WAR HORSE
    Producers: Kathleen Kennedy, Steven Spielberg

  33. Anything but The Artist :(

    NGNG: The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo

  34. Just to make things clear, I have NOTHING against The Artist, because is a really good film. I just have a lot against Harvey Weinstein and his annual circus of bullshit.

    Also, I have this weird feeling that DGA,PGA and SAG will go to 3 different films (Hugo, Descendants and The Help, maybe)

  35. NGNG: Hugo, TINTIN

    PGA: The Descendants, Rango

    BAFTA: The Artist

    Oscar: The artist

  36. Prediction: The Artist

    NGNG: War Horse

    Why are we even bothering to declare our predictions? How many people truthfully expect a film other than The Artist to win?!?

  37. I sure hope The Help doesn’t win. The thought of Chris Columbus, of such groundbreaking films as “Home Alone 2″ and “Bicentennial Man,” inscribed on a trophy other than a Kids Choice Award makes me a little weezy.

  38. Sasha Stone

    Why are we even bothering to declare our predictions? How many people truthfully expect a film other than The Artist to win?!?

    I don’t think anyone seriously does.

  39. I don’t think The Hurt Locker and The King’s Speech can be compared really. The King’s Speech was an out-of-nowhere type of sweep, sure, but The Hurt Locker has been going strong since the start of the season, facing some heat from Avatar (and, briefly, Up in the Air), but hardly ever letting go of the frontrunner status.

    “almost none of the movies nominated this year are worse than TKS (well, except for War Horse) and also none are better than TSN”

    Haha so true.

  40. NGNG: Kung fu Panda in animated

  41. NGNG: War Horse

  42. PGA: The Artist
    DGA: Scorsese, Hugo
    SAG: The Help

    NGNG PGA: Hugo
    NGNG DGA: Payne, Descendants
    NGNG SAG: If it isn’t The Help, The Artist will take it. And that isn’t really NGNG.

  43. If the race stays as it is I’ll be predicting Artist/Hugo split of Picture/Director.

    However I’m sure PGA and DGA will make things clearer.

  44. RobertlowercaseA

    I am sorry, I am going to have to predict The Artist as the PGA winner, unfortunately.
    NGNG: The Descendant

    I still hope The Descendant pulls a surprise, like the Globe.

  45. Craig S.

    Win: The Artist
    Wish would win: Hugo

    This is the beginning of the long slide to the middle.

  46. I think most people on this site are anti-Spielberg and they want Fincher to win although whatever his film is. He has great film like Benjamin Button. But Dragon Tatoo is not good, it is the worst in the list.

  47. Yashar R

    It’s kinda sad that the only film that could possibly challenge The Artist is a rather disappointing film like Descendents. For the last few years, we had a group of frontrunners rather than a single picture and in each and every single one of those groups, there was at least one truly decent and worthy film.
    Sure, almost every one of those better choices was snubbed in favor of a generic crowdpleaser or something downright unacceptable.

    PGA: The Artist
    PGA NGNG: Hugo

    SAG: The Help
    DGA: Hugo

  48. RobertlowercaseA

    The Descendant is not disappointing, that’s your opinion.

  49. Sometimes I wonder about the psychological effects of everyone predicting the same movie again and again and again. I haven’t even seen the friggin Artist and everywhere online just has me thinking that hoping for anything else is futile. How much does all this “prediction” talk affect the people who vote I wonder? And when everyone predicts the same film, does it affect the voters in an opposite direction? “Well, everyone’s gonna vote for this, so let me vote for that” which could really swing things if enough people think that way. Could be how TKS sneaked in and pissed in the punch….b/c everyone thought everyone else was voting fot TSN so they threw out a toss for the little feel-good happy pic.

  50. NGNG-

    ‘The Help’ & ‘Kung Fu Panda 2′

    Prediction-

    ‘The Descendants’ & ‘Rango’

  51. That said, NGNG: Dragon Tattoo hoping enough people with sense think that since everyone voting for the little B&W trick film, they will vote for something more dark, adult and ballsy.

  52. Deserved Win=Tintin

  53. “Instead, it chose the most conventionally made, traditional “Oscar movie” – even when almost everyone (except me) thought that Fincher would win the DGA.”

    And still whining about it a whole year later.

  54. THE DESCENDANTS surely is not NGNG – it’s a very likely winner (as are HUGO and THE HELP).
    NGNG: MINDNIGHT IN PARIS.
    All other movies can’t win.

  55. A! And I predict THE ARTIST and THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN winning this.

  56. I agree with you SOMEONE

  57. Get ready. That miraculous horse rides again.

  58. Jack Traven II

    I still like to swim against the tide and predict “The Descendants” to win. That’s of course just a gut feeling. And not based on any statistics or whatsoever. Not even on how I feel about the respective films. Up to now I only saw “The Ides Of March” and thought it to be – other than most people here think – a very good film, pleasantly suspenseful, well acted and – story-wise – pretty relevant. But I can’t wait to see “The Artist” and “The Descendants”, both being released next week here.

  59. Edkargir

    The Artist better win the PGA and the DGA if someone else wins it will be just as bad as last year.
    NGNG BridesmaiD real long short

    The DGA next week is more important.

  60. PGA award is for outstanding production.YES? So the producers of The Artist made great job. It was so risky to produce silent film in 2011! But they did well. The Descendants is boring and simple movie. It is not hard to produce such film. Dragon Tatoo is also like The Descendants.
    And in animated film category Tintin is the best produced film.

  61. Sort of OT, but i really think that the split, with Picture/Director is very likely this year with The Artist taking BP and Scorsese winning BD…the only problem in this scenario is Original Screenplay: with Woody Allen poised to a semi-victory, is it possible that the Best Picture wins WITHOUT a screenplay win! In this scenario i’m leaning to think that Woody ges snubbed again, and Hazanavicius is rewarded in Screenplay!

    Anyone…?

  62. Byron Gray

    Whatever which way the PGA goes, The Artist will win the Oscar. It was the darling at Cannes and with the snooty New York film critics (indicating international support) and it celebrates Hollywood history. It’s unusual, inventive and yes, charming.

  63. PGA – The Artist
    PGA NGNG – The Ides of March

    SAG – The Descendants
    DGA – The Artist

  64. and Hazanavicius is rewarded in Screenplay!

    I don’t see that happening. And not merely because of the absence of dialogue and complete dependence on the stock diverging-career-trajectories storyline. The script won’t read well, and anybody trying to summon memorable lines will recall “I’ll get my car!” and “He was clutching this!”

    plus, when a car crashes into a tree the sound it makes is not “Bang!”

  65. here’s my predictions for the PGA winners:
    Theatrical Motion Picture: The Artist – Thomas Langmann
    Animated Theatrical Motion Picture: Rango – John B. Carls, Gore Verbinski
    Documentary Theatrical Motion Picture: Project Nim – Simon Chinn

    if i was voting, i’d choose these:
    The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo – Cean Chaffin, Scott Rudin
    Animated Theatrical Motion Picture: The Adventures of Tintin – Peter Jackson, Kathleen Kennedy, Steven Spielberg
    Documentary Theatrical Motion Picture: Senna – James Gay-Rees

    here’s my NGNG:
    Hugo – Graham King, Martin Scorsese

    additionally, the PGA has already announced these two winners of honorary awards (and since the voters already knew that Spielberg was going to receive a lifetime achievement award, i’ll bet a majority of them didn’t vote for either War Horse or Tintin):

    The David O. Selznick Achievement Award in Theatrical Motion Pictures:
    Steven Spielberg
    (Lifetime Achievement Award)

    The Stanley Kramer Award
    In the Land Of Blood and Honey
    Producers: Angelina Jolie, Graham King, Tim Headington, Tim Moore
    (The Stanley Kramer Award was established in 2002 to honor a motion picture, producer or other individual, whose achievement or contribution illuminates provocative social issues in an accessible and elevating fashion).

  66. Could there be a tie?!? That would be interesting to see…..
    On another note: considering all the momentum it’s been gaining these past few weeks, I can see “Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” pulling an upset at PGA.

  67. So @Ryan, are you predicting a Best Picture win for The Artist without a Screenplay recognition?? WOW!!! BRAVE!! :)

  68. ^
    not brave. reckless.
    despondent and reckless.

    (…hey, hang on… am I predicting a Best Picture win? not so sure about that.)

  69. My prediction: The Artist, Rango
    No Guts, No Glory: The Help, Tintin
    Would blow my mind: Dragon Tattoo, Puss in boots

  70. Well, i still hope the guilds, with a surprise movement, all go with HUGO…you know, it’s such a masterpiece!

  71. Prediction: The Artist
    NGNG: Hugo

    I don’t think I should be upset about The Artist winning; it’s a wonderful film. But I just feel like Hugo’s been so under-appreciated by the public, that I want it to gather accolades and have a chance at Best Picture at the Oscars. It’s without a doubt my favorite film of the year and I’d love to see it conquer tonight. But it won’t happen. :(

  72. I liked the ” it’s either me or him…” line in The Artist, and the followed look on Goodman’s face.

  73. Mattoc, that was good. I wish there had been more of that. Aside from that moment, Peppy never put a foot wrong, and that’s not much fun.

  74. Heath87,

    I’ll take any surprise I can get. But if the predictable keeps happening, I won’t be crushed this year. (refuse to be crushed, resolved not to be.)

    Hugo was such intense sensory overload the first time I saw it, I was filled to the brim. Didn’t think I’d be in a rush to see it again soon. Now it’s the only movie from 2011 that I’ve watched 4 times. Better every time.

  75. Bob Burns

    NGNG: Midnight and Tin Tin

  76. John-Paul

    Since anything besides The Artist would be considered a NGNG pick, I’ll say The Help. I actually think it has a shot at upsetting, especially when you factor in its box office success. But then again, they didn’t seem to care much about box office when they chose The Hurt Locker 2 years ago, so I’d still be absolutely shocked if The Artist didn’t win this.

    It’s also probably Rango’s to lose in the Animated category, but if the Golden Globes were any indication, Tintin might have at least somewhat of a shot. So my NGNG pick here is Kung Fu Panda 2. It’s also the one I’m rooting for.

  77. Should win: Hugo
    Will win: The Artist
    NGNG: Midnight In Paris

  78. ” No film since Oliver! has won the Oscar for Director AND Picture.”

    What do you mean? Haven’t most films won both?

  79. Jake G.!

    Prediction: War Horse!

  80. Jake G.!

    And The Kings Speech won Best Pic and best directot last year! You said no film since Oliver has done that?

  81. mdb,

    Not since Oliver! has a winner of the Golden Globe for Comedy/Musical won both Oscars for Director and Picture. Since 1968, any year when the winner of the Golden Globe for Best Comedy/Musical goes on to win Best Picture at the Oscars, the Best Director Oscar has split.

    (it’s explained in the paragraph but sentence order is switched. We’ll fix that.)

  82. Zach, one word- slumdog

  83. NGNG: Bridesmaids or Moneyball

  84. @ Sasha,

    just a little correction. OLIVER! actually didn’t even win the DGA Award in 1968. From your article it appears as if it did. So it makes things even more complicated. But hey, things are changing. Keisha Castle-Hughes got a lead actress in 2004 despite of being campaigned in supporting. When was the last time that happened before that? I I read somewhere it did Susan Sarandon in 1980? So it doesn’t happen all that often, but it does happen. When was the last time a movie won all the major critics and the Golden Globes and lost the Oscar for best picture? Well, I would say never, but it did – LAST YEAR. So it was a first. Wasn’t DREAMGIRLS the first movie to be the most nominated film of the year and still miss out on best picture? Yes, it was.

    And I doubt THE ARTIST could really lose. It will probably win the PGA, the DGA, the BAFTA and Oscar. THE HELP will probably win the SAG for ensemble and the WGA could go with Midnight In Paris and The Descendants. But this won’t change the race. THE ARTIST is too much to resist.

  85. Zooey,

    We rearranged that previous sentence a little to help clarify.

  86. Harvey Weinstein knows what he is doing and The Artist is a critical darling. I cannot see how there can be an upset in the Best Picture category.

  87. and the DGA, like every other voting body, leans towards Oscar – wants to be like Oscar – wants to influence Oscar. So if they think The Artist is winning Best Picture (or when they thought Chicago was winning Best Picture) they will vote for that movie.

    hmmphf.

    Maybe that’s true. I want to resist thinking that Directors of all people want or need to be sheep. They’re supposed to be the shepherds.

    hmmphf.
    hey, directors: grow a pair… grow 6000 pair.

  88. knee play

    PGA: Hugo
    SAG: The Help
    DGA: Hugo
    Oscar: The Artist

  89. knee play

    oh, and Hugo for Director Oscar.

  90. NGNG: The Descendants.

    Making it a nice two horse race with The Artist.

    Alexander Payne is DUE!

  91. zencritic

    I think there’s some really good discussion here–or at least, enough debate/discourse that, if WE don’t necessarily believe The Artist is an absolutely guaranteed shoo-in, it’s certainly possible that the PGA might not have treated it as such either. (Certainly, I’d treat it as the frontrunner here, but not without room for upset.)

    Two of the most salient points that have been made by several people above:

    1) Spielberg is receiving an honorary award — from a voter’s standpoint, it’s unlikely that he is going to be rewarded for (pretty mediocre) work in WAR HORSE and TIN TIN as well. (Plus, the WAR HORSE backlash is palpable at this point. It’s just not a contender any way you slice it.)

    2) The (very real) politics of Weinstein vs Everyone Else working against The Artist. He’s so polarizing a figure that he could overshadow his own film, regardless of the fact that he’s not even the credited producer who’d receive the PGA. There was a very astute observation made about the shock of KING’S SPEECH suddenly sweeping late last year and stealing several key prizes from the arguably more deserving SOCIAL NETWORK. Though I’d be shocked (NGNG) to see DRAGON TATTOO take this, I’d love it from that standpoint–and from the vantage that it is, earnestly, my favorite of the nominees. Really rooting for its resurgence and hoping for some big Oscar noms.

    Nevertheless:

    PGA: THE ARTIST
    POSSIBLE SPOILER: HUGO

    Finally, off-topic, I’ll say that I’m a (relatively new) voting WGA member; I’d be glad to disclose my two votes with all of you, as we’re all ‘sharing’ anyway (not saying these will win, simply disclosing my in-progress votes):

    <<Original Screenplay: MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
    <<Adapted Screenplay: (still deciding–The WGA screening series is this weekend/week) MONEYBALL or GIRL
    WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO (either way, good year for Zaillian in my mind…granted, MONEYBALL is a strong
    piece of writing with lots of support, but there is some backlash over the amount of collaboration between he
    and Sorkin and where the credit lies…)

    Sorry for that tangent. Just thought some of you might like some insight from a voting Guild member. ;)

  92. NGNG: Moneyball

  93. Prediction: The Artist
    NGNG: The Help

  94. Ignoramous

    Why wasn’t Johnny Depp [and for that matter, Tim Headington] shortlisted for producing Hugo?

    And what’s the point of even doing a NGNG when we all know The Artist is going to win? Here’s hoping that I am wrong…

    The days where I thought the world of Harvey Weinstein and his power in the awards community have now been replaced with annoyance that everyone just picks his movies and ignored all other options.

  95. Goodness Gracious

    I finally saw The Artist last night. I was actually really into it, so aside from it being a boring race, I’m down with the win. That, and the top 6 films on my list won’t even get nominated. That helps stave off the disappointment.

  96. I think Ryan might be onto something when it comes to The Artist-screenplay. It is REALLY not the best part of the film, the story is remarkably not original (basically a tweaked version of ‘A Star is Born’) and though the execution is good/great, the directing achievement should be credited for that and not the screenplay. I could easily see the film NOT getting a screenplay-nod and if that happens, a bp-victory will be difficult to pull off. It’s not that the script isn’t good, it is, it is just simply not great/top5-worthy in my opinion.

  97. filmboymichael

    what time do they announce?

  98. Tero Heikkinen

    Isn’t Hazanavicius the editor as well? Maybe he wins there.

  99. RobertlowercaseA

    Around 10PM

  100. Why exactly is “The Help” win so impossible? It earned the most of any movie with little budget. Many people love it and critics like it. It’s probably gonna be an Oscar contender not less than The Descendants and Hugo.

  101. yep, last year we heard word at 10:27 PST.

    and by word, I mean FOCK!

  102. NGNG- Hugo,Tin Tin

    I know the Artist will probably win, and I wont be upset since its my #2 film of the year. But I wish it would be Hugo.

  103. Ignoramous

    Sasha, you say that The Artist is the film that people “can’t” hate (or something to that degree…), but what about Midnight in Paris? Everyone here in Wisconsin, in Middle America where film culture isn’t taken as seriously as it is in NY or LA (we don’t even have an awards ceremony for film critics here), have said that they have loved the film…even though they have never really been big Woody Allen films.

    Yah, the film is not nearly as great as Annie Hall/Broadway Danny Rose/Manhattan, nor as good as Crimes & Misdemeanors and Hannah and Her Sisters. Simply put, it is a safe-ish, multi-period romantic dramedy that is as sticky as it is sweet.

    Not saying that it’ll win much outside of the screenplay race, but still…it is certainly one of the best of the year.

  104. Well I’m gonna be drunk by the time these are announced. I’ll see y’all late tomorrow morning!

  105. By the way, I like The Artist. I’ve been writing a lot about the problems I have with it. Should write about the many great things it has to offer too.

    your prayers may give me strength

  106. so happy that the adventures of tin tin won — it truly is a great film and spielbergs best in a really really long time. Certainly better than rango.

    Still wishing that Drive was on this list and that the oscars correct this.

  107. I’m french and I say stop !
    THE ARTIST can’t be the best picture of 2011.
    Are you kidding. It’s a good movie but certainly not the best movie of the year. Wake up !
    What about Terrence Malick or Alexander Payne, even DRIVE is better for the best direction.

  108. @Sasha Stone

    I’m sorry about my comment(3rd Comment), It’s just a stupid prediction.
    I’m not good in English and then I did not comment my opinion about that prediction. I just think The Descendant will be strong in All guilds but I’m wrong. The Help will get SAG, if It gets Oscar nomination in best picture. DGA,because I love Alexander Payne so much, I think he will get DGA and It will be the time that he deserves it. The BAFTA,they love European Movie. The Artist will get it.

    Be honor that you reply at me…Thanks

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