Kris Tapley, who has seen The Impossible, said he walked away thinking Naomi Watts had the best chance in the film for a nod. This is hard to believe, looking at the film’s trailer, because it gives the definite impression that Ewan McGregor turns himself inside and out for this.  But Tapley goes on to say that Summit will push instead for Tom Holland in the leading category, and Ewan McGregor in supporting.  An interesting development — of course, it never really matters how the studio pushes any contender – hope springs eternal in this, the early phase.

To me it’s significant that Tapley singled out Watts as the only one who might get a nod – that tells me it might not be a performance-heavy piece, despite how the trailer plays.  Privately, he told me only that the film was incredibly heavy. More of his thoughts are here.

The hardest thing about the Oscar race is planning how the kid’s wedding is going to go before he’s even born.  So many people ask me if

I think this or that film is going to get nominated, or whether a certain film will WIN. I have always believed that it’s spitting in the wind to make predictions you hope will come true this early.  Movies have to be, at the very least, seen before you can make any sort of call.  This is why I’m going to take Tapley’s word for it on Watts and add her to the contender tracker.

Naomi Watts is one of the most overlooked actresses at the Oscars.  There is no apparent reason for this other than her choice of mostly difficult, non-Academy-friendly material. Watts doesn’t do touchy-feely so well, which makes her a force to be reckoned with but one that is perhaps a tad confrontational for alpha male steak eaters who like women who know their place.

Watts has been overlooked for her astonishing work in Mulholland Drive, King Kong (in my opinion), The Painted Veil, Mother and Child, Fair Game, J. Edgar. She’s been nominated once for 21 Grams.  But perhaps The Impossible might just be touchy-feely enough for voters to notice Watts — an actress who has long since paid her dues.