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Day-Lewis to Win Third Oscar, O’Neil Proclaims

Over at Gold Derby, Tom O’Neil has seen Lincoln and says the Oscar for Best Actor is over:

Move over, Meryl Streep, Jack Nicholson, Walter Brennan and Ingrid Bergman. Daniel Day-Lewis is about to join you in the pantheon of Oscar’s second-biggest winners. After previous Academy Award victories for “My Left Foot” (1989) and “There Will Be Blood” (2007), Day-Lewis is now a shoo-in to win for “Lincoln.” He’ll soon be just one statuette shy of four-time champ Katharine Hepburn.

His “Lincoln” rules the screen with authority. It seems like a cinch to be nominated for Best Picture, Supporting Actress (Sally Field) and Adapted Screenplay (Tony Kushner), in addition to Best Actor. There’s also an excellent chance that Tommy Lee Jones is nominated as firebrand abolitionist Congressman Thaddeus Stevens and that Spielberg’s usual team of craftsman will probably score nods too: composer John Williams, film editor Michael Kahn and cinematographer Janusz Kaminski. It also may reap bids for art direction and costumes.

As of now, Day-Lewis’ biggest competition is Joaquin Phoenix’s career-best turn in The Master. Given that Day-Lewis has already won two Oscars and Phoenix none I’m giving the edge to Phoenix. But I haven’t yet seen Lincoln so I can’t say for sure. The other name that is bound to cause a stir is Hugh Jackman in Les Miserables. Although he’ll be singing the whole time it already looks like astonishing work.

And then there’s Anthony Hopkins in Hitchcock (one Oscar), and Denzel Washington in Flight. Washington has also won two Oscars but only one lead Oscar. He’s such a great actor and there has long been the complaint that when he played good characters he was snubbed but when he played a drug dealer, against type, that’s when he won the Oscar. The against-type thing is a killer every time.

And then there’s Jamie Foxx for Django Unchained. And John Hawkes for The Sessions. Richard Gere for Arbitrage. You can see Best Actor is filling up fast.  But if Day-Lewis or Tommy Lee Jones wins they will make history as the first actors every to win starring in a Spielberg movie.

An aside: Lincoln is the movie with the actors with three names: Daniel Day-Lewis, Tommy Lee Jones, Joseph Gordon Levitt, Jackie Earle Haley.

112 Comments on this Post

  1. And to think he could’ve arguably already be going for his 4th. Loved Adrien Brody in The Pianist but not as good as Day-Lewis in Gangs of New York.

  2. It is too soon. But I would love to see Spielberg actor to win. He deserved this in 1993 with Ralp (ironic, TLJ won that year). And prsident Lincoln is the one that can break academy spell – “don’t give 3rd Oscar too soon”.

  3. MoreMovies85

    It always is shocking to me that no actor has won in. Spielberg movie. Oprah and Fiennes should have won their categories. Such memorable performances.

  4. rufussondheim

    Yeah, I don’t give this much weight. With how good Meryl Streep was it took her 29 years to win her third. And it took Jack Nicholson 14 years to win his third. So the current trend suggests it’s too early for DDL.

    Now maybe if it was an extremely weak year for nominees or Lincoln were vastly superior to everything causing it to sweep I could see it happening. Now we already know it’s a strong year for the category and it’s pretty safe that in a year with so many strong pictures, Lincoln isn’t likely to be an Oscar Juggernaut (although, it’s still too early to say for sure).

    And because it’s too early to say for sure, Tom O’Neill will likely regret writing this article, unless he got a massive check to do so.

  5. That record should’ve been broken in 1993 with Ralph Fiennes winning for Schindler’s List, that’s correct.
    Denzel Washington shouldn’t win he enraged me when he robbed Russell Crowe’s Oscar in 2001.
    Hugh Jackman, John Hawkes and Anthony Hopkins won’t win but probably be nominated.
    The race would be between Day-Lewis and Phoenix, i want Phoenix to win even though i was disturbed when Adrien Brody won over Day-Lewis and he lost but Brody was very good and totally deserving in The Pianist so can’t complain, his win remains one of my best Oscar moments.

  6. Tero Heikkinen

    DDL has the TOO SOON -factor here, so I also think that Phoenix has the edge. And they probably want to give The Master a couple of big awards – Best Actor and Best Original Screenplay. Yes, PTA should get a trophy, finally. To me, this would be the big moment of the night, but I can’t even dream of him winning Best Director. Not yet.

  7. Tero Heikkinen

    And yes, Ralph Fiennes should’ve won, he was easily the best of the bunch, but maybe too unknown at the time (oh well, that has never been a problem in Supporting categories, really). 1993 was an awesome year anyway and half the categories were dominated by one Director’s two films.

  8. It’s been a while (1997) since all four of the acting categories went to purely fictional characters. So the trend suggests that at least one biographical performance will win this year.

  9. Its wonderful to see such a compertitive best actor category but at the same time sad to see how man still get by far the best roles. The difference between actor and actress category is, once again (2011 was an exception), significative.

  10. Jeremy E

    Agreed, Tero. I don’t see the major critics groups going for Lincoln this year, in ANY category, including best actor. Just not in the cards. I actually think best actor will boil down to Phoneix and Hawkes for the win. And yes, we can only dream of the day genius in directing, as shown by PTA, is awarded. I dreamed a dream.

  11. Hi, Jiggles.

  12. No offense but Brody was a such a fluke. He was 3rd behind DDL and Nicholson, yet ended up winning. Look up who won the precursors that year and you’ll see DDL was the clear winner. This year, regardless of his performance, I doubt they’ll just hand him an unprecendented third best actor Oscar. Personally if someone deserves to win 3, it’s him but I might be a bit biased heh.

  13. Tero Heikkinen

    Oh but Jeremy, I don’t agree with you here. Best Actor might go to someone else than DDL (had he lost for TWBB, the case would be entirely different), but I do see Lincoln winning more categories than any other film.

    This I’m saying without seeing any of the major candidates, so take it with a grain of salt (first time I ever used this phrase, btw – felt good and clichéd).

    2012 is such a weird year that all bets are off. Hopefully we will see a very unpredictable show. But… I have a feeling that by February we are able to guess most of the winners – as usual.

  14. SORRY BUT DDL IS NOT WINNING THIS YEAR, NOMINATED YES, THEY HAVE JUST GIVEN STREEP HER THIRD OSCAR LAST YEAR AND I DON’T THINK THEY WILL GIVE ANOTHER ACTOR HIS THIRD OSCAR, DDL HAS ALREADY WON TWO, REMEMBER GUYS HE HAS WON TWO!!!!!!!!!!!! I’M ROOTING FOR PHOENIX OR HAWKES THIS YEAR SINCE NEITHER OF THEM HAVE WON AT LEAST ONE!!! JUST GIVE DDL HIS THIRD OSCAR AFTER 34 YEARS SINCE MOST PEOPLE TAKE FOR GRANTED STREEP FOR 34 YEARS AS WELL!!!!!!!!!!! GIVE OTHERS A CHANCE LIKE PHOENIX OR HAWKES OR EVEN JACKMAN SINCE THIS IS THEIR ONLY CHANCE , DDL COULD BE BACK NEXT YEAR AND FOR THE NEXT OTHER YEARS TO COME.

  15. 22 years between Jack Nicholson’s first win and his third.

    23 years since Daniel Day-Lewis won his first Oscar.

    Jack may be a living legend, but Daniel’s the better actor. It’s not too soon.

  16. Eric, isn’t PSH’s character sort of biographical? Besides, if we are to have at least one historical character I would say TLJ has a better chance to win than DDL.

  17. Didn’t Tom also predict DREAMGIRLS as a lock for best picture?

  18. One thing that we all need to consider is that the two leading actor Oscars DDL won were totally deserved. He was vastly superior to his competitors each time (though I love Robin Williams in “Dead poet society”). His situation was comparable to Viviven Leigh’s wining for “Gone with the Wind” and “Streetcar”.

    Cannot say the same for any of the 3 or 4 Oscar winners at all.

    Let alone I strongly feel that DDL was robbed for “Gangs of New York” (victim of backslash against the lobby for Scorsese) and should have won supporting for “A room with a view” in 1986.

  19. DDL is in the same league as Brandon and De Niro as an actor. And he usually stars in masterstrokes instead of duds (Nine).

  20. @ Yibbet.

    Yes, and he also said Beyonce would be nominated for best actress and that Sweeney Todd was a lock for best picture. When he starts getting hyperbolic, take his words with a grain of salt.

  21. Terometer

    With only 5 nominations…
    and so many great actors who have played Lincoln before…
    and reviews of critics are not that solely enthusiastic upon DDL…
    I bet TLJ has a better chance than DDL.

  22. Eoin Daly

    I think DDL has taken what Brando/DeNiro did for acting and put it over the edge. He is are greatest actor working but we only get performances at least every three years with only Lincoln being his fifth film since 1997. He will win and Phoneix will not because of his whole “I’m Still Here” stunt which he is still not forgiven for I believe. DDL also should already have three oscars but I’m not going to cry over spilled milk.

  23. POTENTIAL FRONTRUNNERS
    1. DANIEL DAY LEWIS (LINCOLN) – Daniel Day-Lewis. Playing Lincoln. Directed by Steven Spielberg. Rest my case.
    2. JOAQUIN PHOENIX (THE MASTER) – He received career-best/year-best reviews, his comeback story is intriguing AND he has the Weinsteins on his side. BUT if Lincoln and Les Miserables emerge as stronger bp contenders than The Master, his strongest competition will have the edge.
    3. HUGH JACKMAN (LES MISERABLES) – Critically acclaimed romantic lead (Kate & Leopold), action superstar (Wolverine), Tony-Award winning stage actor who also worked with visionary directors like Darren Aronofsky, Christopher Nolan and Baz Luhrmann…he more than paid his dues, and this could be not only his role of a lifetime and first nomination, but if the film is good enough, the Academy might just fell in love with it as much as they did with the director’s previous film…and in that case, the male lead won an Oscar in the end.
    4. ANTHONY HOPKINS (HITCHCOCK) – Legend playing another legend…AND apparently the film is a crowdpleaser. I think he is not only IN, he could also WIN.
    5. BRADLEY COOPER (THE SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK) – If the film is as good as it is supposed to be, Cooper is definitely a strong contender…how could the film be any good – especially ‘potentialbestpicturewinnergood’ – without a REALLY good lead ? Also, the Weinstein-factor should be once again emphasized.
    6. JOHN HAWKES (THE SESSIONS) – Early word is excellent, unfortunately it needs to become at least a minor BO-hit to register with voters…good news, that Fox Searchlight is brilliant at turning ‘the little film that could’ into ‘the little film that DID’. Having said that, the competition is massive this year, so unfortunately it could easily happen that an understated performance in a little indie comedy will be snubbed in favor of all the flashy Lincolns and Hitchcocks.
    7. JAMIE FOXX (DJANGO UNCHAINED) – Even though he gave one of the most impressive performances in the last decade, he hasn’t been able to live up to it ever since. This might be his artistic comeback. Having said that, Brad Pitt didn’t even come close to this for ‘Basterds’ and that was a critically acclaimed, international Box Office hit that also received picture, director, screenplay nominations. Django could have all that, but for now, it’s all up in the air…and even if it accomplishes all that, the lead nod is still not a guarantee (Pitt).
    8. BEN AFFLECK (ARGO) – Strangely enough, he is more fascinating as a director than an actor…how very Eastwood of him. BUT he is still young, he still seems to take his acting rather seriously, so who knows, he might just have directed himself to his first acting nomination. He has a considerably better shot at a Best Director nod this year, but if the Academy goes for the film in a big way, he can pull a ‘Million Dollar Baby’ in the Lead Actor category.
    9. RICHARD GERE (ARBITRAGE) – It is shocking he has never received an Oscar nomination, and although this well-reviewed indie hit might just do it for him, I am skeptical. If the Academy could ignore his Golden Globe-winning/SAG-nominated work in the eventual Best Picture winner that year (Chicago), could they really go for this brilliant, but understated performance ?
    10. MATT DAMON (PROMISED LAND) – His last Best Actor nomination was for a Gus Van Sant film…could they do it again ?

    STRONG CONTENDERS
    11. DENZEL WASHINGTON (FLIGHT) – Although Robert Zemeckis had some success in the lead actor category (he directed Tom Hanks to his second Oscar (Forrest Gump) and fifth nomination (Cast Away), ‘Flight’ has to prove first, that his thriller-directing skills have improved since the perfectly mediocre ‘What lies beneath’. Based on the trailer, I don’t see much awards potential, but then again, that’s just the trailer. Early whispers are still promising.
    12. BILL MURRAY (HYDE PARK ON HUDSON) – Iconic role, beloved actor…that’s definitely an Oscary enough combination. BUT, even though festival crowds loved his performance, his film didn’t fare as well and unless some serious buzz starts building quickly, he will be probably ignored.
    13. BRAD PITT (KILLING THEM SOFTLY) – Last year he proved that his star power is capable of convincing the Academy to consider not so typically-Academy-friendly films like Moneyball and The Tree of Life. The question is : could he do it again ? Based on Cannes-word, the film is definitely good enough, and it has a very Academy-friendly release date, as well, not to mention the Weinsteins in his corner…the problem is the distributor already has several strong contenders in this category, so they might not bother even trying to convince the Academy that this genre performance is for them.
    14. TOMMY LEE JONES (HOPE SPRINGS) – Excellent performance, probably his best in years. The problem is the Academy isn’t really into the genre and is famous for BARELY remembering anything released before October. This case reminds me of ‘Something’s Gotta Give’…Keaton IN, Nicholson OUT. Probably something like that is the most likely scenario for now : Streep has a better shot. Good news ? He is close to lock-status for ‘Lincoln’ in the supporting category.
    15. JEAN-LOUIS TRINTIGNANT (AMOUR) – He received rave reviews at the Cannes Film Festival, and if the distributor takes the acting campaigns seriously, he might turn up in the end. Problem is, his competition is massive.

    DARK HORSES
    16. JOEL EDGERTON (ZERO DARK THIRTY) – After Animal Kingdom, and most recently Warrior, he has some excellent pre-Oscar cred. Bigelow directed her previous lead to an Oscar nomination which also resulted one of the most lucrative post-Oscar careers in recent years…I think she might be onto something here, as well.
    17. JAKE GYLLENHAAL (END OF WATCH) – Excellent turn in an above-average cop thriller…that combination rarely registers with the Academy.
    18. GARRETT HEDLUND (ON THE ROAD) – Early word is mixed on the film, however they all seem to agree that Hedlund nailed this iconic role.
    19. MATTHIAS SCHOENAERTS (RUST & BONE) – This could be the kind of breakthrough performance that could result international stardom in the long run. Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem likely the Academy would go for his performance this year.
    20. CHRISTIAN BALE (THE DARK KNIGHT RISES) – Fresh off his first Oscar win, the conclusion of one of the most iconic trilogies of recent years, definitely deserves at least a proper mention, especially because Bale nailed the role every single time and gave Bruce Wayne depth no actor before him ever did. It is highly unlikely the Academy would honor his turn, but still, purely based on the QUALITY of his individual work, he deserves to be considered at the very least.

    ( I thought Matthew McConaughey would be a player for Cannes-hit ‘Mud’ but it will be probably pushed to 2013; Martin Freeman for ‘The Hobbit’ could be a surprise; and even though child actors almost never register in the Best Actor category, if the Academy falls in love with ‘The Impossible’, Tom Holland might have a shot after all. Also, the crazy king was phenomenal in ‘A Royal Affair’, but Mikkel Boe Følsgaard will probably go supporting.)

  24. What should be notes is that unlike the other actors mentioned at the top of the article (Jack, Meryl, Bergman, Brennan), DDL’s third would give him three for LEAD roles, making his accomplishment second only to Katharine Hepburns four lead wins.

    Also, it’s unfair to say that DDL needs to wait as long as Meryl and Jack did. Unlike them, he doesn’t have a load of subpar films on his résumé, and his taste in seeking out quality projects and directors is something that deserved rewards as soon as it’s earned.

    Having said all that, it will sadden me that DDL failed to win his third with Scorsese. I agree with the above posters that he was robbed for Gangs, and it was most definitely a result of the backlash against the film. Brody was impressive, but he wasn’t even playing in the same league.

  25. The weirdest thing happened to me when I saw the LINCOLN trailer ahead of ARGO. I started to tear up. I was just so happy to be alive at the time of Steven Spielberg and John Williams. No joke. I couldn’t even help it. And you know I was not looking forward to this.

    This is exactly the kind of acting I consider great acting. IF he pulls it off. The acting where you transform yourself into a character. Of course it’s easier to see that when someone plays a historical figure. But it’s what I usually consider the best. Having said that at this point in time 4:33 pm on October 12th 2012, I’m rooting for Joaquin Phoenix, whose movie I’ve seen half of. As you say, the heart wants what it wants, n’est-ce pas? ;)

  26. Again, before we declare DDL or Phoenix the winner, I want to see the national response to Hawkes in THE SESSIONS because I personally think that is the sleeper performance that could swoop in and win.

  27. Plus – even if it is a small role – with Hawkes ALSO being in LINCOLN with DDL it is a great way to show the many folks how diverse of an actor he is. While most of us already know this, if THE SESSIONS is a hit (and some folks say it will be) there could be plenty of people who see him in LINCOLN afterwards and say: “That’s the same guy in THE SESSIONS?”

    Just saying, could be wrong, and obviously those people I am describing aren’t members of the Academy… let’s hope.

  28. This field seems to be getting narrower in terms of predictions, etc…

    If seen… Denis Lavant, Mads Mikkelsen and Jean-Louis Trintignant must be considered “Dark Horses” at the very least.

    Lavant is a one-man show that’s completely versatile and nuts, Mikkelsen sympathetic character will resonate with audiences and althouh Riva seems to be stealing Trintignant’s thunder, his is the better performance in a film with two great ones.

  29. There are dark horses and then there’s Denis Lavant in Holy Motors.

    He’s very good, but I’d be very surprised if the Academy nominated Holy Motors in any category, perhaps save original song (although that category will likely be much more predictable than usual, given the new rules).

  30. Daveylow

    After I saw The Sessions I immediately thought that John Hawkes would win the Oscar. Plus the movie made me cry.

  31. The odds are so against DDL winning – nobody has ever won 3 Best Actor oscars.

    I think he’s reached the same professional level as Streep in that he’ll continue to be nominated for remarkable work, but the oscar will always go to another deserving candidate – in this case, likely Phoenix or Hawkes.

    DDL will always give great performances and will continue to be nominated for them, but another win…? Unlikely.

  32. Until Les Miserables comes out, I’m not about to go with anything else. One of the world’s greatest novels, an iconic musical never off stage for more than a quarter of a century, a cast of film and stage veterans, an Oscar winning director, major down ballot contributors etc. Unless it completely falls on it’s face, this film will wipe away everything else we’ve seen simply because nothing like it has been seen before. I know it is a very competitive film and actor year, but all you other contenders Les Mis and Jackman will have earned this the hard way by being magnificent.

  33. unlikely hood

    Paddy makes a great point. Also, the time between now and TWBB is the same as the time between Mystic River and Milk. I know, I know, there’s a difference between 2 Oscars and 3, but there were a whole lot of TOO SOON-iacs on this board and elsewhere when Milk came out.

    And what did Sean Penn have in 2008 that one-time front-runner Mickey Rourke didn’t have? What did Adrien Brody have in 2002 that DDL and Jack didn’t have?

    I can’t believe no one has said it yet: playing a real person. The Oscars are myopic for biopics. We know this, do we not? Why do you think Philip Seymour Hoffman beat Heath Ledger?

    As an aside, what did Penn and Day-Lewis NOT have to worry about in 2003 and 2007? Oh right, they were playing made-up people, but so were the other four nominees.

    At this point you have to assume the competition is Phoenix, Hawkes, Jackman, and Washington (maybe Cooper, I doubt it). Maybe Hopkins gets in and siphons off a few votes, maybe not. I love him and I teach Psycho to undergrads but I kinda don’t see Tony in the final 5. Too much awkward makeup, too much doing what he’s done before, not enough character growth/pathos.

    Has anyone ever played the only real person in the final 5, and lost? Yes. It happens. It happened to Brad Pitt only last year. And his film was even a BP nom. But here’s the thing: Pitt didn’t exactly ride a wave of Best Actor victories to the Kodak. DDL is far more likely to enchant many critics who think like Tom O’Neil. Sure, some of them will divvy out to Phoenix and Hawkes. Sure, Jackman will win the Golden Globe and may be the only *other* Best Actor nom with a BP nom.

    But DDL will be in this race right up to the end. And based on both his talent and the Academy’s history with BP-nom’d period-piece biopics, that makes it a little scary to bet against him.

  34. I love DDL, but he already has two. I just feel Phoenix should win, he was sssssooooooooo good in The Master. I just feel its his year.

    I also loved Richard Gere in Arbitrage, Matthias in Rust and Bone, and Ben Affleck in Argo

  35. unlikely hood

    And another thing no one said yet: do not underestimate the power of the 150th anniversary of the Emancipation Proclamation. That will be January 1, 2013, scant hours before ballot deadline day.

    You’ll have that plus a President (of either party) caught in a very Lincolnian moment of necessary, painful compromise (on taxmaggeddon – look it up).

    Then it’s Black History Month when the final ballots are due.

    I’m just saying, people will be reminded of Spielberg’s film throughout the season. That ain’t gonna happen to The Master or The Sessions. Les Mis maybe, but with all this American 19th-century history, do we really want to look outside America *again* (as we have for every Best Picture since No Country For Old Men, yes I count The Hurt Locker and The Artist)?

  36. I hate to say it but…when my idol Tom O’Neil’s gets like this, I don’t trust him. He was like this, manically proclaiming “Sweeney Todd” and Johnny Depp, etc. and then had to recant mid-season.

    It’s just a hyperbolic tone that he gets into and I’m more down with Snuggles 4, his unknown subscriber/predictor. SNUGGLES4 has a better track record than Tom.

    I don’t think it’s DDL and as said ^ above NOBODY has won THREE BEST Actor Oscars. Not Spencer Tracy. Not Jack(there was Supp. in the 3 he won.) I hate to say it it, because it makes the Academy sound like BEANCOUNTERS.

    But they ARE, Blanche! They are!

    Same goes for Helen Hunt this year. AND Marion Cotillard.

    The Iron Lung-ness of “The Sessions” is turning off some people I know from even wanting to see “Another Disability Acting Movie.”

    However, now, the never-nominated Hugh Jackman, former Oscar Host and beloved by all, is a much more likely winner, IMHO.

    And Jean Valjean is a role that has won awards for every single actor who ever played him in its’ debut on both sides of the Atlantic.

    The same can be said for the role of Fantine(Anne Hathaway) and those posters! They are really starting to kick it upstairs.

  37. This loaded so fast, wasn’t able to get this in. If “The Master” wins for ANYhing, it’s PSH in Supp.

  38. DDL SHOULD NOT WIN!! HE HAS ALREADY TWO C’MON, PHOENIX OR HAWKES OR EVEN JACKMAN SHOULD WIN THIS YEAR THEY HAVE YET TO WIN ONE, DDL WILL BE BACK NEXT YEAR SAME THING AS PEOPLE KEEP SAYING AGAINST STREEP,DDL SHOULD WIN HIS THIRD FOR ANOTHER 30 YEARS, MANY ACTORS HAVE NOT YET REWARDED AND HE HAS ALREADY TWO!!!!!!!!!!!!

  39. @lucy

    I don’t care how many times someone has won. If they give the best performance of the year, then they deserve the Oscar. Period.

  40. paulinJapan

    It definitely isn’t too early for DDL to win again, if he is good enough.

    I can’t believe that nobody here has mentioned the fact that, however good Phoenix is in The Master, people in Hollywood aren’t going to forget it was only a couple of years ago he was shuffling around town embarrassing the industry, and sabotaging his own work in Two Lovers. Compare that to the respect that DDL engenders. No contest.

  41. I don`t agree that the same actor always gives the best perforemnce every year he has a movie out.Or one of top 5. Like Streep. I really don`t think that all of her 20+ noms were deserved. Many actresses who were great were left out just because AMPAS likes to recycle the same faces like Emmy`s.

    I thought DDL was the best of the year when he lost to Brody who did nothing Oscar relevant ever since. I never liked Brody and I`m glad he is marginalized more or less now. He won because his movie was a Holocaust movie. No mystery there.

    However, I thought that Viggo Mortensen was deserving of a win when DDL won his second.

    I haven`t seen Lincoln but Phoenix is phenomenal in The Master so I really don`t believe that DDL is such a cut above everyone else that he should win his third while Phoenix has none.

  42. However, I thought that Viggo Mortensen was deserving of a win when DDL won his second.

    *Gasp* Yeah, well, that’s just, like, your opinion, man.

  43. Bump unlikely hood’s comments

  44. Tero Heikkinen

    “I don’t care how many times someone has won. If they give the best performance of the year, then they deserve the Oscar. Period.”

    Truer words are rarely spoken. But… we don’t live in that kind of world. Otherwise Meryl Streep would have some five Oscars by now, and Tilda Swinton should’ve been at least nominated last year and maybe even won.

    DDL would have many more nominations at this point – if he only worked more.

  45. I disagree with the idea that the best performance should win every year. Because the best is very subjective in this business. This isn’t, say tennis where the best is determined fair and square by a match between two players.

    I think it’s good to spread the wealth sometimes. DDL for example is said to be not so superior to others this year so why should he win his third when there is an opportunity to honor other actors who also have worked hard for years. Unless there is a unanimous agreement on a performance that is undeniably, so very clearly better than everyone else, I see no wrong in awarding different actors.

  46. As much as I admired (but didn’t love) THE MASTER, especially JP’s performances, I am a little baffled by the talk of him being a frontrunner for best actor this year. Despite the much-deserved critical raves on the coasts, I’m not sure that’s enough to secure an Oscar bid. Here in the hinterlands THE MASTER tanked –big time. We were the only two people who even stayed for the credits. ANd this was after watching other audience members flee throughout the screening, including one man who said to his date, “I’m really really sorry” When it was over, the usher asked, “So did you hate it, too?” When we replied that we enjoyed it, he was surprised. “People are leaving this theater and actually complaining about it,” he said.

    As for me I’m sure THE MASTER will be on my year-end top ten list, but as for best actor, I’m looking at a race between Daniel Day Lewis and Hugh Jackman with the “too soon” curse giving the edge to Jackman.

    Oh, and let’s face it: Anne Hathaway crooning while having her head shaved in the trailer has probably already secured her Golden Globe. I can’t wait.

  47. Oh, please no… not him again…

    just kidding… he is a great actor… but after his performance in Nine I think it would take me years before I can set my mind to DDL winning another Oscar.

  48. “*Gasp* Yeah, well, that’s just, like, your opinion, man.”

    And you are gasping because? I said it was my opinion. So your problem is with someone`s opinion deferring from that of flock of sheep I assume? There are people who don`t think DDL is the best actor since the dawn of acting. Gasp to that.

  49. Right as I was typing this the tv spot for “Flight” came on and I was planning on saying something about Denzel lol.

    It is too early to guess as most of these movies have come out, but if what I read is true and Denzel does give a career best in Flight, then I would love it if it just came down between him and DDL.

    That would be a terrific matchup, even if Denzel did lose. Now I’m saying that as a huge Denzel fan. The only thing that could make it better is if Tom Hardy got nominated for Lawless or TDKR, but that’s not going to happen.

  50. As much as I love DDL and everything he does, I think it’s Joaquin’s time!

  51. This is part of my issue with the Oscars. Here we are talking about how DDL already has two statues, and how the Academy should give it to somebody who hasn’t won one yet.

    Why? Because it’s “too soon” and because other candidates are “owed one.”

    What ever happened to voting based on the merits of the performances at hand? If DDL’s performance is deemed the best (again, on its own merits as a performance) then he should win. Simple as that. The fact that he has two Oscars already has absolutely no bearing on this particular year and this particular performance.

    This whole “so-and-so is owed one” mentality, in my mind, completely misses the point of what these awards should ideally be about.

  52. McGregor

    The more I think about it, the more I get giddy about Hugh Jackman. I was nervous for awhile that he wouldn’t be nominated, but truthfully, he should have no problem. LES MISERABLES is poised to be a huge player, and it’s ALL about his character. I’d love for the race to come down to Daniel-Day, Joaquin, Hugh, John Hawke, and Denzel. Wow.

  53. This seems wholly premature. Nobody has seen the uber-respected Anthony Hopkins in Hitchcock or the beloved Hugh Jackman in Les Miz (which O’Neil’s site said earlier this week would sweep the Oscars, according to a leading prognosticator), and we’ve yet to see the public’s reaction to John Hawkes. O’Neil may be “sure”, but I’d bet it has more of a desire to be first to call it.

  54. PU-LEASE. NO WAY will the Academy hand out a third(!!!) Best Lead Actor Oscar to Daniel Day-Lewis. I love his work, his career choices, and his talent for vocal work. And I believe other actors do too… BUT THAT would officially anoint him the greatest actor of ALL TIME!!! Better than Nicholson, Brando, De Niro, Tracey, Cooper, Stewart, Bogart, Hoffman, Hanks, Caine, Olivier. NO NO NO NO NO

    For those saying that the Oscar should go to the best performance of the year–WAKE UP!! When has that ever *solely* been the case??? This is about politics, about who is due, about who has the momentum, about who else is nominated, about who they like.

    • First of all, it’s TOO EARLY to tell who will win AND what the Best Picture frontrunner is. And with Best Actor…MANY MANY MANY times it falls in line with the Best Picture winner.
    • Second, Tom has an agenda as an Oscar predictor and Gold Derby site runner in making such a loud statement. DUH
    • Third, Daniel Day-Lewis is NOT a big-time Hollywood player. He doesn’t game the system, he’s not the most personal, the most charismatic, or a huge personality (a la a Jack Nicholson or Katharine Hepburn). He’s not one who has many friends in Hollywood or very visible. It’s been said on here before–and this is hugely important–HE IS NOT A HOUSEHOLD NAME!! Watch this to tell the difference: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bb7303ukNtk
    • Lastly, is he really the greatest??? Has he been more GROUNDBREAKING than every other male actor to be singled out here??? Does TALENT always = win? For these reasons, which will surely be on the minds of voters, I don’t think we’re ever going to see a 3-time Best Actor winner.

  55. I think Tom is right. It looks like Day Lewis will win again. I think his biggest competition will be Hopkins as Hitchcock, who is due for a comeback moment and looks good in the trailer. I think Phoenix was too weird in The Master and will not win this, even if the critics like him.

  56. Agree with Andrew all the way. If DDL rocks it, he deserves it. It would be great for the Academy members to try and cut through the narratives that make story lines more important than craft. Like, if Phoenix gets denied because Denzel or DDL are more interesting on screen, cool, but if he falls short for being unruly a few years ago, the award will continue to mean less than it should.

  57. @KT

    BUT THAT would officially anoint him the greatest actor of ALL TIME!!! Better than Nicholson, Brando, De Niro, Tracey, Cooper, Stewart, Bogart, Hoffman, Hanks, Caine, Olivier. NO NO NO NO NO

    ***********

    But KT, actors don’t become gratest with Oscars. In AFI’s 100 stars list Bogart has 1st place (1 Oscar) and 2nd is Cary Grant (never won Oscar, 2 nomination).

  58. @ Antoinette

    The weirdest thing happened to me when I saw the LINCOLN trailer ahead of ARGO. I started to tear up. I was just so happy to be alive at the time of Steven Spielberg and John Williams. No joke. I couldn’t even help it. And you know I was not looking forward to this.

    This is exactly the kind of acting I consider great acting. IF he pulls it off. The acting where you transform yourself into a character.

    ***********

    Same with me. When the teaser came out it gave me chills that I have not felt before. I felt that this is something extraordinary. after trailers released I have ended up watching them more than 50 times and every day I watch them for inspiration. This is how actor hunts you with his power.

  59. Anne Hathaway is going lead for TDKR! I honestly think she has a shot at a nod, because there is no frontrunner(you can call Jen Lawrence the front runner all you want, i wont believe it til i see it), and because her performance is the best of the year so far.

  60. Ehhhh…i dont know who will win. But I don’t think Daniel Day Lewis will be more impressive than Phoenix in The Master

  61. Genadijus

    It’s possible that Academy will wait for the next year as J. Phoenix will appear in another project by James Gray.

  62. Question Mark

    I’m not sure the argument that ‘Meryl and Jack had to wait years to get their third Oscar, so DDL will have to wait too’ really holds water in this case. With those actors, they were always omnipresent in films and awards shows so the time relatively seemed to fly by. Day-Lewis, however, only appears in a movie every few years, so his absences seem longer to moviegoers. When DDL is taking on a role, it’s an event in and of itself.

    KT, while Day-Lewis is not a Hollywood schmoozer, that doesn’t mean he isn’t popular. In fact, DDL seems to be one of the most respected and well-liked actors in the business because he’s such a mild-mannered guy and such a pro. He’s an actor’s actor and voters won’t have any problem checking his name for a third Oscar if the performance merits it.

  63. Daniel B.

    I believe that Jackman will win the Oscar this year. There is little room for failure here and I think that he is a very good actor if given the right material. I feel that the movie as a whole will sweep the awards.
    It is way too soon for DDL. He is one of my fave actors but, come on, there are other great actors that didnt win 3 Oscars. He is in no way superior to Meryl Streep to win 3 Oscars out of 5 noms.
    As someone said – it is one thing to award the very best of one year, an undeniably strong performance (like DDL in There Will Be Blood or Colin Firth in The King’s Speech) and another if there are several strong performances (this year seems to be the case)

  64. And you are gasping because? I said it was my opinion. So your problem is with someone`s opinion deferring from that of flock of sheep I assume? There are people who don`t think DDL is the best actor since the dawn of acting. Gasp to that.

    Take it easy, it was a joke.

  65. I don’t get the sense that Mr. Phoenix is very “liked” in Hollywood, and that’s important at Oscar time. I also think that the script will weigh down all other aspects of “The Master.” I’m a big fan of “There Will Be Blood,” but the script for “The Master” isn’t in the same league.
    I’m not ready for DDL or Denzel to win a third Oscar yet. Maybe I’ll change my mind after seeing their films.

  66. I agree with you Tero Streep should have won 5 Oscars if it merits the best of the year and to jason did you also said it to meryl when she’s the best year no? She could have 5 Oscars by now if people not taken her for granted, DDL should not win this year Phoenix and even Hawkes were miles better than him in their respective films plus DDL has two already let’s give others a chance, this is their only chance, PHOENIX or HAWKES FOR THE WIN!

  67. @ lucy

    DDL should not win this year Phoenix and even Hawkes were miles better than him in their respective films plus DDL has two already let’s give others a chance, this is their only chance, PHOENIX or HAWKES FOR THE WIN!

    ****

    Have you seen Lincoln, lucy?

  68. @ mecid, no but based on the reviews it’s a more muted performance to win an oscar phoenix or hawkes have more praised than DDL in their films and they deserve to win their first rather than DDL to win his third! Plus do you really want to win DDL a third more than Brando, Tracy, Nicholson who have a much better filmography than him, In my honest opinion DDL should have not won for his over the top performance in TWBB

  69. Lucy, the case is not on whether he has good filmography or not, the case is performance and I think you haven’t read as many reviews as me on Lincoln. Probably every review mentions him being great, some say it is his best. Even naysayer like Tom says he is brilliant in film. I haven’t problem with actor winning 2nd or 3rd. But Lincoln was always great icon for me and as I mentioned above why was I impressed by DDL’s Lincoln from film’s trailers. It is not like anything DDL has ever done.
    Hawkes and Phoenix can also win. But it is ironic that Hawkes has DDL’s My Left Foot performance elements on it and Phoenix has DDL’s TWBB elements on it.

  70. @mecid, i think this is the year that the academy will pass rewarding an actor in a biopic considering the fact that DDL had two already, plus they’ve just rewarded another actress her third oscar this year(Streep) and i don’t think the Acafemy will reward another one a third for two consecutive years, you seem to be pushing him to win his third wheras a lot of people taken streep for granted for 30 years where she is the best of the year for at least six times she should have won for silkwood, a cry in the dark, and the bridges of madison county total of 6 Oscars under her belt supposedly yet people taken her for granted, DDL is not winning this year especially in the year where Phoenix or Hawkes is clearly better than him

  71. @ lucy
    DDL is not winning this year especially in the year where Phoenix or Hawkes is clearly better than him.

    ***

    lucy, you said you haven’t seen Lincoln, yeah?

  72. @mecid, no but i have seen the trailers and nothing special about it especially DDL’s performance, if there is a chance it could win an acting oscar it would be tommy lee jones who completely overshadows DDL!

  73. And lucy, it is not King George, Thatcher, Queen or other. This is Lincoln, one of the greatest persons on history and arguably greatest american president. You may be right. “3rd Oscar” subject reduces his chances but there are also increasing points:

    No actor has ever won for portraying US president. It is ironic, yeah? Oscar is american award but no “presidnet” has won?
    In future who will play any US president particularly Lincoln better than DDL (He is method actor, he explores his characters).

    If DDL’s Lincoln turns out to be big (which is becoming from early screenings) I can see the following situation: Performance will be so big that AMPAS will not able to ignore him. They will give him 3rd and then for many years he will not receive another one. Plus he makes movies so rarely. That is the most solid variant I can see.

  74. So you concluded that Phoenix and Hawkes are clearly better than DDL and that TLJ completely overshadows him based on trailers?

    ‘Anyone but DDL’ seems to be your motto.

  75. @mecid, if nesson portrays lincoln he could have a shot to win his first rather than DDL to win his third plus it’s not the Academy’s fault that DDL rarely makes movies because it’s his choice and it does’nt warrant a third win at all and DDL is the kind of actor that’s rarely visible in Hollywood to be given a third win especially when others deserving have not won single one!
    @helios , i could see hugh jackman could surprise to a win if les miserables bombs positively with critics aside from phoenix or hawkes

  76. lucy, girl(?), you are losing your credibility. I have facts but you are ignoring them. I hope your dreams will be true, girl.

  77. @mecid, im not ignoring your facts lol i just cant see DDl winning a third even though no US president had won an oscar with actors, i can only see it in the future when other actors who have not won an oscar yet portray that role rather than DDl who has two! and so what if lincoln is the best president in your eyes? it’s still depends on the actor playing it and its history with the academy!

  78. Interesting to see how little pushback fir the possibility of Denzel winning his third Oscar in DDL’s sacred 24 year time frame

  79. Well, I just think it’s way too early to say DDL can’t loose that Oscar.
    He’s in a very good position to win (biopic!) and if he really sweeps the critics and/or television aired awards, I can’t see him loose either.
    But still we have to wait for it.
    The Academy are about 6000 people who declare this film or that actress/actor deserves to win. They even sometimes don’t give a thing about critics. Not anymore it seems at least.
    Last year they loved ELAIC enough to nominate it for two categories, even though it had only a 47% score on RT, TIL even won two awards regardless of just 53%.
    They love, nominate and give the wins to what they love.
    Complains are made every year. I doubt there will ever be a year when we all agree to 100% of their choices.
    We still love to predict and watch the Oscars (and other awards) nevertheless.

  80. rufussondheim

    Pete, that’s because people haven’t seen DL’s performance, nor the film. And there’s clearly not as much “buzz” about the film as there is Lincoln. If DL is awards-worthy in Flight then I bet the discussion will be there.

    Although, with only one lead actor statue it might be more muted.

  81. I like DDL as much as the next person, and got a kick initially upon seeing him in character in that picture awhile back.
    Having seen the trailer and various other snippets I’m getting less enthused.
    I have no doubt he will get nominated and may even win, but I’m not excited about seeing the film. It seems staged and nothing organic about it. I will of course see it, that’s what I do.
    it seems that playing an iconic character, without completely ballsing it up, will stand out from the crowd. It’s also restrictive in a sense that you have to conform to a certain expectation, and that can stifle creativity.

    Who knows.

  82. Comment

    I think PSH was the standout in The Master. This complicates Best Lead Actor category.

  83. I’ll wager that if there is a sentinmental favorite this year, it’s Hugh Jackman. This will be his best pass at the gold ring in a role that showcases all his talents. There won’t be another chance like this for him and everyone knows it.

    Phoenix (seen as an oddball), DDL (Streep syndrome), Cooper (needs a bigger body of non-Hangover type work) and Hawkes (not as well known in a lower profile film), will probably play second fiddle.

  84. I can say jackman could pull a surprise win as well if not phoenix

  85. Tero Heikkinen

    I can’t see Jackman winning. Right now I can’t even see him being nominated. Best Actor -category is not kind for musicals. Used to be, but not anymore.

  86. Last musical actor winner is Rex Harrion 1964. Jaime Foxx won for Ray but I think Ray is not considered to be musical as My Fair Lady or Les Mis.

  87. Tero Heikkinen

    OK, and Rex sang live – as people seem to put so much weight on Les Mis actors singing live. So, maybe that will have an affect. Meryl was not nominated for Mamma Mia and she sang live. OK, bad example – both Mamma Mia and My Fair Lady are not the best of musicals.

    Chicago was a multiple nominee. Richard Gere? Nothing.

  88. “Take it easy, it was a joke.”

    OK, sorry, I thought you were another DDL nut who thinks he should win whenever he blinks.

  89. Glenn UK

    Personally I think Jackman is looking very strong and I suspect there could be a Les Miz sweep. I get the feeling that this is going to be a musical like no other. I feel absolutely nothing for The Master but I sense the “Crowe” effect will not help Pheonix’s chances. Act like a knob in Hollywood and it takes a long time to shirk that off – ask Gibson ….. ask Crowe!!!! Its a two horse race in my eyes right now – DDL and Jackman!!!! Hawkes is breathing strongly down their necks – anyone else can forget it – IMO!!

  90. Eh…nope. Seen Lincoln and The Master, and I can say fairly confidently that it’s still Joaquin’s to lose. DDL is marvelous, as usual, though it’s a fairly understated performance, and Joaquin pulls off acting feats that I’ve never seen before on screen.

    Plus, the film itself, while still good, isn’t nearly as compelling or memorable as The Master, so DDL has that working against him to.

  91. @mecid – If you ask any actor, the Oscar is the most significant award you can win for acting–and it means more than recognition for a single performance. The Oscar is Hollywood’s choice for the best actor of the year, and if someone was singled out three times as Best Lead Actor he would be seen as their favorite, over many film legends. And as powerful as DDL’s performances are, I’m not sure he should be placed above them. That’s what I meant, I think it will never happen.

    @Question Mark – I never said he wasn’t popular, but what you said is a valid point. Day-Lewis is one of the most respected actors, for what he does on screen and how he hangs low when not acting. I just think there are more factors at play here that influence voters…sure many will admire his work and check his name, but will he get the majority to win? No.

    A few questions the diverse voting body will surely consider: What is the average box office gross for a DDL-helmed film? Are critics’ reviews singling him out among a talented ensemble? Where is the momentum? Is this film the Best Picture frontrunner? If instead its Les Miz, than no way will he win. Who is nominated, past winners or actors who have never been nominated before? ***And does DDL’s body of work (yes, this is considered) SURPASS EITHER Jack Nicholson’s (who has probably the strongest and most consistent career for an actor) OR Marlon Brando’s (who is probably the most significant actor for his innovative approach)? And as I said before, the answer is no.

  92. DDL does not need another Oscar because like Blanchett and Swindon, he is simple the best. And he doesn’t care

    Give it someone that really wants it and gives a bravura performance at the same time. Thats why I think the race will be between Phoenix, Jackman og Hawks. They really want that Oscar

  93. @ KT
    If you ask any actor, the Oscar is the most significant award you can win for acting–and it means more than recognition for a single performance.

    Are critics’ reviews singling him out among a talented ensemble? Where is the momentum? Is this film the Best Picture frontrunner?

    ***********

    Yeah..Oscar is important but not as important as to make anyone best of his category. Director John Ford has 4 Oscars but how many people mention him among greatest directors? So few. Sally Field has 2 BA Oscar but is she among greatest actresses? Your that pionts are pointless.

    If you talk about Lincoln reviews I have doubt that you have read any screening reviews. Even naysayers mention him. Some even say BA race is over. However it is too soon but I would love to see him 3 time winner.

  94. oscarwatcher

    @mecid: according to Sight & Sound Ford was #8. Not that bad.

    http://old.bfi.org.uk/sightandsound/polls/topten/poll/critics-directors.html

  95. Yeah..oscarwatcher. this is critics’ list. Their choices are very very different than average people. I mean if you ask average moviegoer to name his favourite director, how many of them would answer John Ford? Most of them don’t even know him.

  96. i agree with kt i just don’t see DDL winning a third Oscar this year over phoenix, jackman, hawkes who have not yet won!

  97. unlikely hood

    they’ve just rewarded another actress her third oscar this year(Streep) and i don’t think the Acafemy will reward another one a third for two consecutive years,

    Funny, I think this logic is 180 degrees from the truth. We wouldn’t be having this conversation AT ALL if Viola Davis had won last year. At that point it would seem unimaginable for an actor to win three Lead Acting statues (or at least, it wouldn’t have happened since 1981, when half the current Academy wasn’t in the Academy). Streep’s win has made DDL’s win a far stronger possibility.

    Speaking of non-logic, what’s with this idea that DDL’s relative paucity of roles makes him more likely to win? Uh, no. Meryl could have easily began her speech last year by imitating the beginning of Sandra Bullock’s: “Did I win this, or did I wear you down?” If DDL had 10 more great perfs in the bank, that would help him this year, not hurt him.

    Despite my impeccable logic offered upthread, I don’t think DDL is a lock. However I do think – at least at this point, before all the pre-awards have been given out – that you’d be crazy to bet, say, more than $100 against him winning, for all the reasons I already said. Personally I will probably root for Jackman since he seems like such a great guy and no doubt his Jean Valjean will be a Gem Valgem. Doesn’t mean DDL won’t win.

    I like the guy who pointed out the 23-year-time frame for Oscar #3 is the same for two of this category’s frontrunners – Daniel and Denzel. 1989 was a great year for cinema – sex lies, Do the Right Thing, Dead Poets, Cinema Paradiso, Henry V, Crimes and Misdemeanors, Harry & Sally, Say Anything, Heathers, Jesus of Montreal, even the Little Mermaid. This year, though, seems better, assuming that all this oscar bait lives up to the hype.

  98. Tero Heikkinen

    ‘Chicago was a multiple nominee. Richard Gere? Nothing.’

    To be fair, Chicago was all about the ladies who did get nominated, it had two female co-leads (putting one in supporting was obvious category fraud) and Gere’s character came only third, so Billy Flynn might have been the male lead, but he wasn’t THE lead. Jean Valjean IS. Les Miserables will be all about Hugh Jackman : Russel Crowe’s Javert is an obvious supporting character in the novel and the stage musical whose screentime probably won’t even com close to Jackman’s; Hathaway’s character exits in the first hour; Seyfried, Barks, Redmayne, Tveit appear for the first time in the second, so long story short : the film will belong to Hugh Jackman. If he nails the role AND the film gets good reviews, he will be definitely nominated. If he nails the role AND the film gets GREAT reviews ? He will win.

    I don’t have much faith that the Academy could appreciate Phoenix’s tour-de-force performance in a film they probably won’t love, and they might give in to the ‘too soon’ when it will come to Daniel Day-Lewis. Not to mention, we are completely forgetting a crucial factor here : neither of those are expected to campaign for it. Jackman probably will and considering how likable he is, it will probably work, too.

    And then there is the legendary Anthony Hopkins playing the legendary Alfred Hitchcock, who might enter the race last, but could easily finish first AND we shouldn’t forget Bradley Cooper, either, who is apparently giving a career-best (which doesn’t say much) performance in the at-the-moment best picture frontrunner which is a Weinstein-crowdpleaser…and I don’t have to remind anyone how the male leads of the Weinstein-crowdpleasers fared at the Oscars in the last two years. If Harvey could campaign then-unknown Jean Dujardin to an Oscar, he most certainly can movie star Bradley Cooper, as well.

    Poor John Hawkes…he isn’t in a biopic about a legend like Day-Lewis and Hopkins, therefore his role didn’t require flashy prosthetic makeup, he didn’t have to belt out world-famous, tearjerking ballads like Jackman and doesn’t even have Harvey Weinstein in his corner like Phoenix or Cooper. He isn’t Hollywood royalty like Day-Lewis and Hopkins, nor he is sexiestmanalive-type of a movie star like Jackman and Cooper. And since he isn’t any of those, he will be probably overshadowed come voting time…even if his performance is THE best.

    So I’m taking a mental note right now : Don’t expect the best one to win…expect the one with the best campaign, to win! Yes, I know…we all know this already.

  99. @unlikelihood, that’s the reason why DDL will not win a third Oscar next year because they want to spread the wealth since they’ve just given Streep along overdue third Oscar this year, Streep and DDL’s situation are different since Streep is almost prresent and giving great performances year in and out wheras DDl rarely makes movies he even makes one movie every 5 years lol that doesn’t warrant a him to win a third since he is barely visible in the industry and considering the fact that there are others deserving who have not yet won one ,DDL has two already!

  100. Juliette

    Daniel Day Lewis should have won for Gandhi, A Room with a View, The Unbearable Lightness of Being, The Last of the Mohicans, The Age of Innocence, In the Name of the Father, The Crucible, The Boxer, The Ballad of Jack and Rose. Such an immensely talented actor – the best of his generation! He’s the male version of Meryl Streep.

  101. I won’t fall for the hype until I actually see this production. The same proclamations were trumpeted for War Horse and that was a snoozer. Ditto – for Amistad…
    *It shouldn’t matter that DDL has 2 already and poor Phoenix has none. Give the Award to the BEST…other ‘special circumstances’ shouldn’t matter…if it did, the Olympic will start rewarding ‘bonus’ points for the poor athletes with 0 medals yet, who aren’t as great…but, have been eating lettuce for 4 years and their grandmother has 1 leg.
    As for the other potential Best Actor…the trailer for Flight really doesn’t impress me…didn’t DW do the same role in Unstoppable? As for JF in Dhango…slavery is always a touchy subject…except for the liberals who want to honor Ab…

  102. @tom, but does it also apply to meryl streep? she was the best when she lost silkwood, a cry in the dark and bridges of madison county eh! She could have won a total of 6 Oscars by now and had already broken the mediocre hepburn best actress wins but people take her for granted, DDL had two already let’s give other more deserving actors to win their first! jackman phoenix or hawkes im fine with this 3 to win their first rather than DDL to win his third

  103. Daveylow

    I think the final five could be Hawkes, Phoenix, Day-Lewis, Washington (see reviews that were posted today), and Jackman. With Foxx, Cooper, or Trintignant as alternates. I do think Phoenix has an uphill climb because The Master is so divisive.

    And I would not rule out Hawkes’ performance which makes you cry. Or Jackman if he is great because Jean Valjean is another performance that elicits tears.

  104. Daveylow

    Anyone who’s seen Hyde Park on the Hudson will know that Bill Murray is not a contender this year. The film is too slight and Murray’s performance is good, not great, with no Oscar scenes.

  105. L-Just saying that if DDL gives the best, you’d think he’d be rewarded. It justs seem, and Meryl is the prime example…it seems like people vote against those with prior hardware…just because they’ve been rewarded. Who could resist giving Bill Murray 1 Oscar…or the guy from Amour…when your brain is thinking ‘this might be his last chance…DDL will have another shot. DDL caught sleepwalk with the Lincoln role (I don’t picture Ab actually screaming…) People will just place a DDL lose in the bank and reward him for junk later on in his career. It’s true that Meryl should have at least 5 by now…but at the time…who’s going to vote no to giving 1 Oscar to Shirley Maclaine, Jodie Foster or Susan Saradon…all 3 who also had to win….if any of these 3 had a 2nd chance, it was only Jodie for Silence…..thus, with Meryl…had she been compensated for being ‘the best’…she wouldn’t have been honored for (her best work??? uh, The Iron Lady…should people decide to ‘future reward’ DDL…I have a sinking feeling that it would be for some glorified cameo role (Airport/Murder on the Orient Express/Little Miss Sunshine). Lastly…Meryl should’ve won for The Hours (not Kidman).

  106. @tom, i agree that streep should have won 5 or 6 oscars by now, but streep’s performance is 20 times better than viola when she won for the iron lady, people say its mimicry but she gave it heart and soul aside from technique that she did with the character, davis is supporting

  107. Lastly…Meryl should’ve won for The Hours (not Kidman).

    Oh no, no, no. Kidman deserved her Oscar, and if she didn’t win, the award should have gone to Julianne Moore for Far from Heaven.

    As for Daniel Day-Lewis, I don’t know if he’ll win his third Oscar, but if he does, the award couldn’t have gone to a more amazing actor.

  108. To date, only 9 men have won 2 Best Actor Oscars – Spencer Tracy, Frederic March, Gary Cooper, Marlon Brando, Dustin Hoffman, Tom Hanks, Jack Nicholson, Sean Penn and of course Daniel Day Lewis.

    Day Lewis is the only non-American (to date) to have won 2 Best Actor Oscars. Despite his brilliance and amazing acting ability I can’t see AMPAS rewarding him with a 3rd Oscar just yet. It’s too soon and after Streep winning her 3rd Oscar, I think they will want to share the wealth. And if they want to reward a real person performance, I would give the edge to TJL to win a 2nd Supporting Actor Oscar.

    It is amazing that no one has won an acting statuette for a Spielberg film as yet.

  109. oscarwatcher

    By giving him Oscar #3 the AMPAS would make the statement that he is the greatest living actor. That’s something they did with Meryl Streep last year. But is DDL as exceptional as Streep? I’m not sure. There is also Nicholson, Penn and Hopkins…

  110. Tero Heikkinen

    Watch more Oscars, Oscarwatcher. Nicholson has 3.

  111. oscarwatcher

    @Tero:
    I know, but:
    3 best actor awards > 2 best actor + 1 supporting.

    And Streep has at least more oscars than any other living actress.

  112. DDL couldn’t be proclaimed the ‘greatest actor of all time’ in comparison to MStreep. DDL dazzles everyone with, what, 1 film every 5 years….if he did 2 movies every year where people basically took his technique for granted…he’d get tiresome. The world can’t live without a Streep performance every 5 years…if she did spread out her work, she’d have her 5or6 awards at this point.
    L- I wanted MS to win for TIL…she was 1,000 times more deserving than you know who (who should’ve been in Supporting and probably would’ve won it undeservingly over OSpencer)….I’m just noting that in (my) parthenon of the greatest Streep work…TIL was passable, but not in her top 10.

    And maybe Streep shouldn’t have won for THours…but, she had way more screen time than Kidman and was more moving. (KIdman’s fake nose was too distracting for me. If any performance was supporting in that movie—NK was it). If they wanted to shove MS out of the way to get NK rewarded…Meryl stay should have won for Adaptation…

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