Sasha Stone has been around the Oscar scene since 1999. Almost everything on this website is her fault.
Better late than never! Barbie was placed in Adapted at the Oscars but is in the Original Screenplay category here,...
Read moreThe Academy should take a bow this morning for bringing back the Oscars, restoring them to their former glory in...
Read moreThe Golden Globes went off well enough this past year that CBS has signed a five-year deal with the Globes...
Read more
This gave me the chills, can’t say that about too many trailers.
I think there is room for both Argo and ZD30. Argo will appeal to the ego of the Hollywood crowd since they are featured as contributing to an important operation. Hollywood LOVES to see itself on the big screen. ZD30 will appeal to the ‘Ra Ra we are #1’ chest beating patriotic crowd (yes they exist even in Hollywwod). And I’m going to believe there will be room for an Indie like ‘Beasts of the Southern Wild’, there HAS to be. I’m seeing it as the ‘Winter’s Bone’ vote. I will be so sad if it and Q. Wallis don’t make it.
looking forward to this! I like a good Spec Ops film. The last good one was Elite Squad from Brazil.
HOWEVER I thought Hurt Lucker was a bit overrated. I was expecting a modern warfare film about modern soldiers but honestly it never gave me that. It was a good thriller though.
I would have thought last year with The Descendants and The Artist that there wouldn’t be much room for any other movies that traffic in major amounts of sentiment. After all, both those movies were very much critically acclaimed and along with Hugo in the top 3 of the year.
And evenso, they found room for War Horse and The Help. Ok, one can say, those were beloved for various reasons, white guilt and veterinary inclinations I’m guessing. Those two were critically successful, but neither was a top tier film. And they both managed to get a nomination.
And then there was ELAIC, a film that pretty much got a critical drubbing. Yet it still got 5% of the number one votes. You can argue that away by saying that the bloggers were all over it until it came out. And you may be right, maybe if the same bloggers would have all kept Drive in the discussion, Drive would have found its way to a nomination.
But let’s be honest here. The eventual winner The Artist, The Descendants (Best adapted screenplay), War Horse, The Help and ELAIC all got nominations. That’s five films that are best described as sentimental.
This year we have Les Miz, Silver Linings, and Life of Pi as likely nominees. That’s only three sentimental films – what then, The Sessions? Could there be room for another out of nowhere film? I think so. Will it happen? No clue.
—–
I’m still thinking that there might only be five nominees. I think there will be five strong films with Mass Appeal, enough to crowd out many of the others and prevent them from getting the needed 5%.
I think Argo, Life of Pi, Les Miz and Silver Linings will all be vote grabbers. And then Lincoln and maybe Zero Dark Thirty (if it’s good, I think it’s in no matter what) – SO after those six, how many votes will be out there, and how many films will be vying for those votes. Too many films, not enough votes.
In my mind, accessibility – not subject matter – determines the “slot filler value” and it only works when you consider something like The Tree of Life. There is a certain segment of voters that will flock around and support a film like that, ensuring a nomination. Even then, the overall field has to be pretty thin to make it work and secure a BP nomination.
That’s not the case this year – we could easily end up with 7 or 8 major critical crowdpleasers without ever having to dip into the fringe element. That’s not good news for The Master or Beasts, unfortunately, but it doesn’t take away from the rest. I would be very shocked to see a “crap nominee” in the BP race this year (but then, you never know.)
@rufus I might have missed what you said because I try to stay out of threads that look spoilery, especially for the movies I’m really looking forward to. So I stayed out of a lot of ARGO ones.
@Ryan I wasn’t taking about splitting the nomination vote. I meant for the win. I’m assuming with 10, and this is THE year for 10, they’ll both be in. I should have been more specific.
This December is so stacked. This, Django, Les Mis, The Hobbit, This is Forty, Promised Land, Maybe even Not Fade Away, Jack Reacher, and The Impossible
I’m not talking about thematic overlap, Ryan, I’m saying that certain pairs of movies both appeal to the same type of Academy Member.
If you haven’t noticed, the nominating rules changed last year so a member’s only vote that’s likely to be counted is their number one choice. That wasn’t the case until last year. Back in 2005, you could put down Capote and Brokeback Mountain and support both. Now, a voter has to choose one to support more than the other, they have to choose one to put down number 1. If you can’t see how that might affect the outcome, well, I’m not sure how to explain that to you.
Although I do agree with you that if a movie is good enough it will make it no matter the competition. Like I think Life of Pi and Les Miz will appeal to the same people, but that group of people is so large both films will likely get in anyway.
But when it comes to The Master and Django Unchained, I’m not so sure. I think if they split their niche audience’s vote neither may get in. But if conventional wisdom favors supporting Django over the Master, then only Django will get in. Based on last year’s slate of nominated films, there’s unlikely enough of an audience in the academy to support both.
Now I’m not saying I’m right, I’m saying that because of the rules change we could be entering a new paradigm. And if we are, than looking at what happened in the past is not helpful in looking at the future.
I mean, c’mon, one-third of last year’s BP nominees were critical afterhoughts. In years previous there was usually room for one off the wall strange choice (Chocolat!) but last year there was three. Compare that to the year previous when all 10 films got great critical notices. LAst year was different. Now we have no idea if it was anomoly, or if it’s the New Normal. But I have a sneaking suspicion it was the new normal.
Looks decent. Not sure why but something about it keeps from being excited. I’m sure I’ll see it regardless.
@ADL: maybe Chastain was lying so not to give anything away and/or her role changed once she got on set (she gave the interview prior to the Oscar Lucheon that she skipped out on in order to go film). Because according to this June article in THR you are right that she is playing the key CIA agent whose intelligence tracked down Bin Laden’s courier.
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/bin-laden-movie-kathryn-bigelow-jessica-chastain-339406
^Amour = Something in French
Have you guys not seen the 60 Minutes special with the Navy SEAL guy? She does not play a journalist.
This trailer makes it 100% clear that Chastain plays the CIA agent whose basically responsible for finding Bin Laden. She spent 6-7 years on the case, finally tracking him through his courier in Pakistan. THey had no confirmation but she said she was 100% sure it was him, and it was her information that the CIA, Seals and the President decided to take a chance on.
Since this movie is about the intelligence community she most likely plays the central role.
Ryan, I recall 1999. Elizabeth, Shakespeare in Love, Saving Private Ryan, The Thin Red Line. Enough said….
How shall we fill the Nostalgia Slot?
Hugo? The Artist? Midnight in Paris?
Where was everyone last week when I pointed out that Argo and ZDT would appeal to the same Academy members? With the middle east themes, the CIA as hero aspect and the US as winner outcome, could there be room for both (or neither) in the final list.
I made this comparison for other films too.
The Master/Django Unchained
Silver Linings/The Sessions
Les Miz/Life of Pi
Moonrise/Beasts of Southern Wild
Ack! Antoinette always steals my thunder. I guess I will just stick to the abortion threads.
How about these comparisons?
Capote/Brokeback Mountain
Munich/Good Night and Good Luck
All 4 were nominated for BP — even with only 5 slots — because they’re more than simply “gay” or “political.” The reason they were all nominated is because they’re all brilliant movies. That’s all that matters. That’s all it takes.
There seems to me no doubt that Argo will be nominated for BP. I don’t care if 5 more movies about Iran pop up out of nowhere. Take it to the bank. Argo is in.
Academy members don’t say, “Oh, we already have a movie with a gay characters. Forget Capote. Better go with King Kong. Just for the sake of variety.”
c’mon, guys. You know that’s not how it works. The system is reductive enough without imposing a false need to mix a potpourri assortment.
Zero Dark Thirty doesn’t need to worry about thematic overlap. All it needs to be is a great movie.
Precious and The Blind Side both got nominated, right? And both featured terrifying overbearing mothers.
The first trailer was haunting, but I could not tell if it was going to be an action packed film or not. This makes it seem like it is more in the vein of the TV show Homeland. Jessica Chastain may have said in interviews she is playing a reporter, but from the way the soldiers react to her my guess is she is actually CIA.
We may see a split year, with Bigelow winning director while Best Picture goes to something more grand like Lincoln or Les Miserables. Regardless of the Oscars, I am really looking forward to this.
Thanks for the info, Jerry. Edgar Ramirez’s line in the trailer makes more sense now. “If you’re right, the whole world is gonna want in on this.”
@Stephen:
In an interview earlier this year, Jessica Chastain said she is playing a reporter in this film. The trailer makes it seem like her character is the one leading the way to find Bin Laden which as far as I know it was intelligence from different sources that led to his location not a western reporter. The trailer may be misleading, I don’t think she even said one word.
It’s still time to change the title of this movie
extraordinary, simply exotic!!!!!!!!!!
Jessica Chastain is very pretty. That’s the only thing i got from the trailer. And i already knew that….
Yes, I was watching this and thinking about Argo.
From the trailer, which was good by the way, I got a sense of both these films as having a very positive effect on its audience – not just USA either.
I’ll say lead for Chastain as it looks likes she’s getting the Full Metal Jacket treatment from a special ops soldier in order to “break and build” – so we may see a great depth in range from her character.
The night vision and the way its staged…has left me with a magnificent bulge in the pants department.
I loved Black Hawk Down, but it doesn’t look like that film, nor The Hurt Locker. This is something else.
Antoinette has a very valid point. I am inclined to love both Argo and ZDT sight unseen. Besides, we don’t want Lincoln to win on a “technicality”…
Antoinette, you just typed my post! I just saw “Argo” last night and was totally blown away by it! Nominations everywhere! The audience(of critics) loved it, applauded it, several times ESPECIALLY when Ben Affleck’s name came up! He’s the new Hollywood Hero all over again and could easily win Best Director. It’s got everything.
And I’ve been high on it all day, then I see this “Zero Dark Thirty” trailer and I get depressed, because as well done as it is, it seemed like I was watching “Argo” all over again…
And yes, if it is as good as it looks, they’ll split that portion of Academy’s vote. Can BOTH be nominated for Best Picture?
And WHO or WHAT is the wonderful Jessica Chastain playing? We don’t know. From this trailer at least. Can’t tell if she’s a lead or supporting, but if this film is as good as it looks in this trailer, she’s got another nomination coming her away.
But which category?
Lookin’ good.
But I’m thinking that this is going to appeal to the same crowd as ARGO. They could split that group and leave the door open for something completely different.
I was commenting on the possibility of Bigelow winning again at the Oscars, not on the quality of the ZDT trailer. Since her gender was an obvious factor in the least-seen best picture winner in American movie history getting 6 of those awards. A makeup call for Sofia Coppola not winning 2003’s best director for Lost in Translation, because that movie had the misfortune of being in the same year as Return of the King. That’s what I was getting at.
Paul may be just trolling, so let’s read between the lines… I will.
I HOPE Jessica Chastain is the lead …
“Nightmare on Elm Street-esque bad.”
Which was a near-masterpiece in its own genre. Wake up, Paul, and smell the coffee.
Yes, Steve, her no-bullshit style is what the film and subject material needs. I hope this isn’t an effort to educate but to illustrate. In other words, I hope she assumes her audience is intelligent and well-versed on these issues.
That final snippet in the trailer with the sound of the footprints, geez, I can’t imagine the audience not being on the edge of the seat even when we know what happens. That final scene is going to cause people go apeshit with enthusiasm if it’s as effective as those few seconds.
This just might be utterly brilliant.
FINALLY! This is what I wanted to see. Looks excellent. Now I can say I’m genuinely looking very forward to this one. Bigelow is a fantastic director and this looks like another amazing effort.
I love Bigelow’s straight to the point, no-bullshit style. High hopes for this one. Very high.
Scottish Jellyfish, wash your friggin’ mouth out with oil. Bigelow 2 for 2? Unthinkable. Horrific. Nightmare on Elm Street-esque bad.
I just think it looks great. If she keeps the same style and pacing as Hurt Locker I think this will be a huge player.
I think it looks fantastic. It’s a way better trailer than the first one.
Too much holding back. Too many “exotic” and aerial shots. The trailer, at least, looks too calculating.
Looks really good. I don’t want to be negative, but there seems to be a small little something missing that would make it special, but still, it looks great. And Chastain looks like shes leading the way.
Bigelow for 2?
Jessica Chastain doesn’t even speak, but her face tells everything we need to know. Not sure if she’ll go lead or supporting here, but I think she could get in for either. The trailer seems to tell us that the story will revolve around her.
That last night vision shot approaching the house works like gangbusters.
The first trailer had my interest, but now this movie has my curiosity.
Still hate the title.