Les Miserables Predicted to Win the Best Picture Oscar at Gold Derby

Gold Derby now has Les Miserables back in the lead. The pundits who are now predicting it to win include: Pete Hammond (Deadline), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Ed Douglas (ComingSoon), Jeff Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere) and it looks like Dave Karger, too, might be swayed to throw his vote that way. Kris Tapley is already on record predicting not just a Best Picture win but a sweep, with the potential for a record amount of nominations. It will enter the race with 12 nominations, according to Tapley and others.

The holdouts, at least for now, include myself, Anne Thompson, Steve Pond and Scott Feinberg.  But who knows how that might change. Tom Hooper would have to win the DGA and Les Mis would have to win the SAG ensemble and then the PGA.

It’s a risky proposition to predict a film to win without the critics having rung in, though I feel like I’m the last person in the world who even pays attention to critics. Many are saying it won’t matter, that the raves will pour in. If true, this will mark the first year I can remember where a movie came in late, didn’t get any reviews and took the lead in the Oscar race. Does that mean the critics no longer matter?

There are a few tidbits offered up, which I’ve taken from Broadway World:

Mike Ryan, Huffington Post: I will say, as a complete novice to the world of Les Miz (I’ve decided to go with Les Miz, by the way), I thought the film was wonderful and found myself momentarily confused only a handful of times. (This is arguably my fault for being easily confusable.) My personal favorite movie this year is still Argo, but after seeing Les Miz, my gut is telling me that it will beat both Argo and Lincoln for Best Picture. And the talk you may or may not have heard about Anne Hathaway being a shoo-in for Best Supporting Actress as Fantine is true. (Though, again, not knowing anything about Les Miz, I was honestly shocked by how little she is in this movie.)

Tom O’Neil, Gold Derby: Reviews are embargoed until Dec. 11 so it’s tricky to discuss the film, but here goes. The audience flipped for it. It’s (nearly) everything that “Les Miz” nuts hoped for. Eddie Redmayne is the big surprise. His performance wows and, yikes, who knew he could sing like that? Sacha Baron Cohen and Helena Bonham Carter try to steal the film — and the contents of every pocket in 19th-century Paris. But Carter can’t win. Anne Hathawayhas Best Supporting Actress in the bag and Hugh Jackman poses a serious threat to Daniel Day-Lewis’ dominion over Best Actor.

It wouldn’t be the first time a musical beat harder hitting, deeper and more relevant fare, but it would be the third year in a row that a European director beat all of the American nominees, and though it’s supposed to be about French people, the characters are speak in British accents, so who’s to say if it’s a British or French movie? Even still, it would kind of end a Euro invasion triple header — The King’s Speech, The Artist and Les Miserables.

It would go down in history beating Steven Spielberg’s Lincoln, David O. Russell’s Silver Linings Playbook, Kathryn Bigelow’s Zero Dark Thirty, all great American directors telling American stories. Funny, that.

Meanwhile, The Wrap’s Steve Pond put up a piece about Zero Dark Thirty and Les Miserables screenings. He is fair minded, I think, about Les Mis, writing:

I’m not convinced that it’s the instant Best Picture frontrunner that some have proclaimed: Much of the film left me cold, as musicals often do. But even well-regarded musicals often leave Academy voters cold, too: witness the 2006 Broadway adaptation “Dreamgirls,” which was considered a Best Picture shoo-in before Oscar voters unexpectedly left it out of the picture, director and lead-acting categories.

“Les Miz” will certainly have enough passionate adherents to give it a truckload of nominations, and probably enough to make it the year’s most-nominated film – and Anne Hathaway might want to start clearing a spot for the Best Supporting Actress trophy that her searing rendition of “I Dreamed a Dream” will probably win her.

But for now, particularly given the consensus a movie has to assemble in the final round of voting, I can’t call it the favorite to win.

92 Comments on this Post

  1. A Sweep? In a year like this? My reaction would be similar to the picture above.

    “It would go down in history beating Steven Spielberg’s Lincoln, David O. Russell’s Silver Linings Playbook, Kathryn Bigelow’s Zero Dark Thirty, all great American directors telling American stories.”

    (sing live) “not a good place to be…”

  2. I hope that the critics and guilds split the awards and nominations in an insane variety of ways. With a year as diverse and exciting as this, a consensus early on is boring.

  3. If true, this will mark the first year I can remember where a movie came in late, didn’t get any reviews and took the lead in the Oscar race. Does that mean the critics no longer matter?

    I think it means everyone drinks too much caffeine. Nothing has happened yet. Everyone is jumping the gun with this declaring winners crap.

  4. Bob Burns

    I’ve said it before, here, and will again. I love the play but it makes no, or little, narrative sense (I had to do a lot of reading before I understood the moving experience I had at the theater) and I’ve never understood how Les Miz might work as a movie. Movies demand so much more narrative rigor than musical theater. So, I’ll believe it when I see it…. and, even so, it’s a topic I’m so immersed in now, that I would doubt my subjective judgments.

    My only quarrel here is that the underlying source material is entitled to respect, without regard to the quality of the film itself. At the very least take the time to read a few wikipedia articles on the historical era and the history of the story….

  5. Anne Hathaway!!!!! I love her!

  6. The critics determine the films for which the studios wind up having screeners sent out (in other words, they decide who is in contention each year). I think their influence stops there. Sometimes the critics and Academy agree, but other times — like in 2010 & 2011 both — they are far apart. Still, it is all perception at this point. And I think it is too early for perception to matter unless these people are actual Academy members. Interesting though that Travers, himself a critic, is a Guru of Gold. I wonder if it will be his personal number 1 this year or if he is just going off early buzz?

  7. Tom O’Neil’s comment ‘The audience flipped for it. It’s (nearly) everything that “Les Miz” nuts hoped for’ is pretty much what I’ve been thinking/saying all along. This is the most popular musical of all time, or at least has the most avid followers. Is anyone really shocked that they flipped for it? I am not shocked by this.

    These new comments and predictions don’t shock me whatsoever but I still don’t think it will win. It has to win over so many people and critics and I am sure it will get plenty of 100s on metacritic but at the same time I can see some being so in love with the musical if the littlest thing is changed they won’t like it because the musical is their baby and nothing can top it.

    It’s gonna get a boatload of awards and nominations no doubt. And it very well could be the best movie of the year. I just still am hesitant it is gonna be a slam dunk with the GENERAL public…not the crazy awards followers and musical lovers like alot of us are.

  8. Houstonrufus

    As much as I love the stage musical and novel, and as much as I want the movie to be a stunner, I don’t think I could bear Les Miserables sweeping this year, not in a year that also includes Lincoln, Argo, Life of Pi, Beasts of the Southern Wild, The Master, all films I love and admire. I’m realistic enough to know some of these films I list here won’t be invited to the big dance. But I do hope the Academy is sensible enough to spread the wealth in such a competitive year when so many film makers and actors have aimed high and hit their marks.

  9. Yeah, no. I can’t call a movie a lock to sweep, much less win in Novemeber with no reviews and after rumors of a rigged screening. Especially after reading about how some of the shots are composed and film is put together. I don’t think a film can sweep if it can’t even get nominated in the editing and cinematography cats. Sorry, but I remain skeptical. I will wait to read reviews after embargo ends.

  10. I just have one word for them…
    Dreamgirls

  11. Les Mis has a chance. Can’t wait to see it. It will be a difficult though, with Lincoln, Flight, TDKR, Beasts, SLP…and a few others contending for that win.

  12. Cue the backlash…

  13. unlikely hood

    This is a helluva year already. I won’t let a congealing premature consensus from the Gurus take that away from me.

    It’s weird, but after pooh-poohing the SLP crowd for weeks, I’m starting to see their point. Certainly, Russell’s timing is right in a way that none of the other likely BD-nom directors’ timing is. They’ve either already won or they’re Ben Affleck. Russell’s timing is closer to the sweet spot of midcareer like the Coens or Danny Boyle or Ron Howard. Both Andersons are in the same place, but Master and Moonrise have perceived box office problems that will only be exacerbated if the three L’s (and SLP and Argo and ZDT) all make more than $100 mil. Yes, there’s always a tiny bit of room for a little engine that could blow our minds (maybe Beasts, maybe Impossible, maybe something foreign, who knows) but not to win, not this year.

    And it sucks, but it sounds like Argo and ZDT are going to cancel each other out – or at least enough voters may *think* that, worrying about throwing their vote away by supporting either. Life of Pi, with its measly Metacritic score of 79 and its director that has won twice before (sort of) and the Toronto scenes that were lit by a Lifetime channel 1st AD, will be in just-happy-to-be-nom’d territory.

    In a year with all these factors, I think go-with-your-gut will be huge. It’s the opposite of 2009, when you had Avatar vs Hurt Locker, which was really: Cameron twice in a row and accept our new 3-D overlords, OR take care of women, Iraqwar, and ignoring the box office all in one shot? I don’t think they’ll be thinking that way this year. I don’t think they’ll be like, huh, Spielberg’s 3rd or Hooper’s 2nd in 3 years or a new guy? American historical, foreign historical, or American contemporary? Biopic, musical, or dramedy?

    Instead they’ll say, ok, we’re gonna be doing something crazy no matter what, so let’s just go nuts and vote for the one that we want to watch 3 more times.

    If Les Miz is really what some people say, then heck yeah, these Gurus could be right. But it left Sasha cold – so I’m still enjoying this year.

  14. DaneM, I’m ITA – the critics groups only help to narrow the field, at the end of the day the Academy members will vote with their hearts. When trying to predict the Best Picture winner (especially this early in the game) we have to look at all the contenders and ask ourselves – Which of these movies can we sit anyone down to watch and – regardless of race, creed, politics, religion, and gender – and they will LOVE it.

    It’s not enough to be a technically great film, like The Master, film goers have to be moved. For all the artistic merits a film like The Master or even Lincoln…it has left many cold.

    I can’t say for certain that Les Miz will win the Best Picture Oscar having not seen it or the reaction of the general public but if reports are to be trusted the film is in a good position to take it all. Only thing standing in the way would be the fact that Tom Hooper won just two years ago. Academy members might feel more inclined to honor another director/picture with the win.

  15. I truly believe it will go over well with older voters. Les Mis is filled with sad stories but a crowdpleaser still that connects with people. It has so much heart and himanity. This is why the musical has been so popular for decades. Once you fall under its spell you go back for more. This WILL replace SLP as the film audiences cheer for at the end. Yes it will take best picture, best supporting actress and some techs but I don’t think it will be a full sweep. The other films (Argo, Lincoln, SLP, Life of Pi, ZD30) will also pick up some prizes too. A split in BP and BD for sure. Hooper is not going to win this time. Nice to see the Gurus of Gold agreeing with me on something.

  16. Hooper won with Weinstein backing. Can he now win on his own accord with major studio backing? I can see a Pic / Director split. Sorry, but its wrong to have Two-trick Tom in line for his 2nd Oscar when Hitch & Kubrick never got one, it would tie him with Spielberg, and place him above many others like Scorsese, Nolan, Fincher, Affleck, and the Andersons sit Oscarless.

  17. @Jerry…

    It will go over for older voters, yes. But so has Lincoln and in a big way. So that argument doesn’t really hold a lot of water to me. In fact, I think if you’re basing it on older voters I think Lincoln could be the winner pretty easily.

    And besides Chicago, what musical has been popular enough in the last 40 years that has ended up living up to the hype and winning a bunch of awards?

    How can you possible know it WILL win over audiences?? You don’t. You just HOPE it will. This is what I keep finding a bit humorous is that so many have nothing but hopes and aspirations that this is the greatest thing since sliced bread…and it’s not even out yet.

  18. Me too, I’m predicting a Les Miz semi-sweep:

    Best Picture: Les Miserables
    Best Director: Tom Hooper for Les Miserables
    Best Actor: Hugh Jackman for Les Miserables
    Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook
    Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln
    Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway for Les Miserables
    Best Original Screenplay: Django Unchained
    Best Adapted Screenplay: Lincoln
    Best Foreign Language Film: Intouchables
    Best Editing: Les Miserables
    Best Cinematography: Les Miserables
    Best Score: Lincoln
    Best Song: Les Miserables
    Best Art Direction: Les Miserables
    Best Costume Design: Les Miserables
    Best Makeup: Lincoln
    Best Sound: Les Miserables
    Best Sound Editing: Les Miserables
    Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi
    Best Animated Feature: Brave

    Sasha, you have yet to include Eddie Redmayne’s and Russell Crowe’s names under supporting actor in the 2012 contenders side bar.

  19. I agree about Lincoln being as likely to win over the old white man vote as a beloved musical.

  20. Prediction Winners:
    Best Pic: Les Miz
    Dir: ?????
    Actor: Daniel Day Lewis /Lincoln
    Actress: Jennifer Lawrence/SLP
    Supporting Actor:Leonardo DiCaprio/Django Unchained
    Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway/Les Miz
    Original Screenplay: Zero Dark Thirty
    Adapted Screenplay: Silver Lining Playbook
    Cinematography: Lincoln
    Film Editing: Les Miz
    Foreign Film: Amour
    Production Design: Les Miz
    Costume Design: Les Miz
    Original Score:
    Visual Effects: Life of Pi
    Sound Mixing: Zero Dark Thirthy
    Sound Editing: Les Miz

  21. You can’t possibly think that a clean sweep will really happen in a year like this. What world do you live in? Must be Les Miz Land. Again, how can you POSSIBLY predict that without even seeing it?! Makes no sense to me. You’re just hoping.

    And I DO want it to be great. I just think it has a ton to live up to with such a loyal following. I think lots of people are expecting the second coming and that just ends up with some disappointment in the end. I’m still holding reservations until I actually see it.

  22. Robert A.

    I’m not even the hugest Lincoln fan (admired it more than loved it), but I have a really hard time envisioning Jackman winning Best Actor over DDL. A largely all-singing performance winning lead actor? For whatever reasons, that seems kind of unlikely to me. I have nothing really to base this on, of course, and I haven’t seen Les Mis, so I could be completely wrong.

    I also understand the arguments against DDL–he’s won twice before, the last time only five years ago, and no performer other than The Great Kate has won more than two Oscars for a leading performance. But that record is bound to be shattered eventually, and I really believe (at least for now) that DDL is going to three-peat. He’s just that good, and he plays Lincoln, for God’s sake, which seems like it couldn’t be more up the Academy’s alley. I’m reminded of that one AMPAS member back in 2008 who was quoted in EW about why he was voting for Sean Penn as lead actor. The AMPAS member said something about not really caring for Penn much as a person, but he was so good in Milk that “you just have to give it to him.”

    I think the same thing is going to happen with DDL. Despite that he already has two Golden Boys, I think AMPAS is just going to have to give him a third one.

  23. Robert A.

    By the way, I would also have no problem with Joaquin Phoenix winning Best Actor–he was alarmingly great in The Master. At this point, though, I’m doubting whether that will happen.

  24. How is Ang Li’s Life of Pi not in the same league as Les Miz, Lincoln and Zero Dark Thirty? It’s certainly miles above in achievement over The Silver Linings Playbook. Frankly, The Perks of Being a Wallflower is a deeper and more memorable film than The Silver Linings Playbook.

  25. I know it’s hard to imagine Hugh Jackman beating Daniel Day-Lewis but Jackman truly shines when he’s singing (he ignited the stage in The Boy from Oz and his recent one-man show on Broadway) and Jean Valjean is a very sympathetic dramatic role. So it’s entirely possible for Jackman to beat Day-Lewis if the Academy loves the movie. And a lot of people love Jackman’s personality off-screen, too.

  26. @Reno: Life of Pi is going to win more than one technical award. Have you seen that Ang Lee is being honored by the Sound Editors Society this year with the Golden Reel Award?

  27. Oops I spelled Ang Lee’s name incorrectly two posts above.

  28. Sorry for all these posts. But what if The Hobbit is actually fantastically wonderful? What happens then?

  29. Hell would have to freeze over for Hugh Jackman to take down BOTH Daniel Day-Lewis and Joaquin Phoenix. I can’t believe this is even being mentioned, I’m sorry.

    My pessimism toward LES MIZ has begun to fade… though I do think Gold Derby giving it the edge THIS soon is a bit of a kiss of death for it. It has to be far and beyond better than everything else to maintain it’s position, and I severely doubt that will happen.

  30. I’m thinking something phenomenal, like 16 to 18. Depends on if they nominate the Adapted Screenplay. It’s all sung, but it’s still a screenplay.

    Hair and Make-up.
    MANY supporting performances ` Eddie Redmayne, Russell Crowe, Sasha Baron Cohen, Helen Bonham-Carter, Samantha Barks, and of course Anne Hathaway. With Hugh Jackman in lead, for sure. That would give more acting nominations than any other film in history.

    It’s staggering. Staggering Formidable!Incroyable!

  31. Film Fatale

    The Dreamgirls comparisons can, and should, stop about now. What do they have in common other than that they are both musicals? And by the way, one is a musical and the other one is an opera, technically, with no spoken dialogue. One is about self-acceptance and family reconciliation, fair enough, but the other is about life, death, obsession, war, defeat, rebirth, honor, dignity, loss of self and purpose, being crushed by the world and redeemed by love and then later, in death.

    Hardly anything to compare here, folks.

  32. @Stephen

    Please tell me your comment of 16-18 is dripping with sarcasm. If not, I want some of what you’re smoking.

    If you aren’t joking, you’re seriously thinking SEVEN nominations in acting alone?

    I hope you are joking.

  33. Also, Gold Derby’s boner for LES MIZ has gotten a little out of control, especially in the acting categories.

  34. @Josh: we are all just stating our OPINIONS based on the information we have at hand and some knowledge of Oscar voting behavior. This is what Oscar predictions are about. Why are you so upset that some of us have a different opinion than you? I too believe Lincoln will go over well with older voters (the biggest percentage of Oscar voters). However Les Mis has that combination of heart and ability to cause strong emotion. It should bring tears to the eyes of even the most jaded. Voters tend to go for films which move them to strong emotion. This year the two films that do that are SLP (happiness and laughter) and Les Mis (sympathy and sadness ending with happy tears). To its favor Les Mis is more epic and meatier than SLP. Look at the bright side, if we are wrong about Les Mis taking BP you get to rub it in our noses the day after saying I told you so. So lighten up friend. :D

  35. BACKLASH ALREADY? Sasha knows how to manipulate her readers like anyone. Kudos.

  36. rufussondheim

    At least you didn’t call it Ang Li’s Life of Pee! And thanks for the mention of Perks, right now it stands as my #1 for the year.

    People need to stop bringing up Dreamgirls. Yes, I know the history. And I know it better than you. Dreamgirls is not a classic musical. It contains one classic song (and another almost classic song) with one great character, that just happens to be in a supporting role. The leads are boring and forgettable and neither lead has a memorable song. It survived four years on Broadway, mostly because people wanted to see the great Jennifer Holliday sing And I am Telling You I’m Not Going. Had she not agreed to do the role for four years, the play would not have been successful.

    I have no idea who hyped the movie to no end and declared it a front-runner for Best Pic, but it certainly couldn’t have been someone who knew the original musical well. The movie is about as memorable as the show, which is “not very”

    None of this can be said about the stage history of Les Miserables, which might be the most loved musical of all time, at least in the last fifty years. You’d probably have to go back to 1957 to West Side Story or 1959 to The Sound of Music before you got any real competition. Trivia Question: What do the movie versions of those two musicals have in common? (Yeah, I know I skipped past Fiddler on the Roof. Sue me.)

    Oddly enough, the only non-Sondheim show that the theater geeks I know love more than Les Miz is a little known effort called The Last Five Years, which would make a great movie too! But we’re a cloistered bunch, so ignore us.

  37. Again, claiming it is the frontrunner NOW, is rather bold, it needs a few things first :

    – If it gets raves (82+ MC) and becomes a BO-hit (100M+ US), it has a shot against Lincoln. Until it pulls off BOTH, it’s Lincoln’s to lose.
    – If it doesn’t pull off BOTH, it most certainly doesn’t stand a chance and it will be still Lincoln’s to lose
    – If it bests Lincoln in both by a wide margin (90+ MC vs. 86, 200M+ US vs. 120-150M), THEN we can consider it the frontrunner, until then, it’s Lincoln’s to lose.

    And even if it pulled off the reviews and Box Office, it will still need two important nominations that won’t come by easily even if it will make the cut in BP/BD without a hitch : Best Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay. The film is all about Jackman’s character, if they don’t consider him at least top5-worthy, they won’t consider the film for the win, either. Also, films almost NEVER win BP without at least a screenplay nomination, and sight unseen Les Miserables’s screenplay seems like an easy, routine adaptation and that might be a problem considering that with the exception of Zero Dark Thirty (and unseen Django Unchained) ALL major players are competing in Adapted Screenplay : Lincoln, Argo, Life of Pi, Silver Linings Playbook and The Hobbit.

    Long story short : The embargo ends on December 11, IF the raves are there, it will STILL need picture-director-screenplay nominations from the BFCA (December 10), HFPA (December 13), also Best Actor nominations from both AND from SAG (December 12), not to mention the crucial SAG Ensemble nomination, THEN excellent Box Office starting on December 25, then PGA/WGA/DGA nominations in early January (January 3/4/8). IF it pulled off all those, THEN we have a potential frontrunner and real threat for Lincoln. But that’s a big if, missing even one of those, for example a WGA-nod, could hurt its perception A LOT. So bottom line : I wouldn’t consider it the frontrunner before January 8.

  38. Just to be clear Josh as I said I do not believe Les Mis will sweep just that it will get at least 12 nominations but win only a handful including BP, BSA (Hathaway) and a few techs. I’m in the camp saying they will spread the wealth this year to honor the top 5 films. I don’t see Hooper winning BD or Hugh Jackman winning BA or any of the male support cast of Les Mis getting BSA. Nominations yes, wins no. Lincoln, ZD30, Life of Pi, SLP all will win something. I bet even Skyfall and TDKR will go home with a prize (tech prize).

  39. Oops left out Argo from my list of “will win something”. Still betting on Ben Afflect for Director.

  40. I wouldn’t say Les Miserables is an opera just because it has no spoken dialogue (and it does, even the stage version has a few spoken lines). Operas are performed in opera houses that are built acoustically to amplify the opera singers’ voices (which are not miked). Musical theatre productions, which would include Phantom of the Opera (not an opera either), are miked. But even if you were going to call Les Miserables a modern opera, you could just as well call Dreamgirls an R&B opera.

    But I agree that you can’t compare Les Miserables with Dreamgirls. One is a period piece and much more heavy hitting emotionally, and plus, Les Miserables is using the innovation of having its singers perform live instead of lip-syncing. However, I will say that if Dreamgirls had come out in 2002 instead of Chicago, it would have been nominated for Best Picture. It might not necessarily have won, but it still would have been nominated. And if there had been 10 Best Picture nominations instead of the usual 5 for 2006, it would have been nominated.

  41. If Les Miserables fails to become the frontrunner or at least the strong runner-up, I don’t think any other contender can stop Lincoln. ‘Pi’ and ‘Argo’ probably won’t have the dominant Actors’ Branch with possibly no acting nominations at all; meanwhile ‘Silver Lining’s Playbook’ and ‘Zero Dark Thirty’ probably won’t have the kind of Box Office its rivals seem to pull off (Pi/Argo/Lincoln/LesMiserables are all heading to 100M+ in the US).

    However there is one conspiracy theory that MIGHT favor ‘Les Miserables’ : if ‘Django Unchained’ is a hit, it could steal votes from similarly slavery-themed ‘Lincoln'; secret operation-themed ‘Argo’ and ‘Zero Dark Thirty’ could cancel each other out, ‘Silver Linings Playbook’ could easily lose the BD-nod (Lee, PTA, Jackson Tarantino or maybe even and underestimated risktaker) therefore could end up as a filler BP-nominee, and if that will be the case, the only viable contender without serious theme/genre competition, will be Les Miserables. Needles to say, that’s a huge IF…

  42. Les Miz had best picture locked up before the first scene was shot …

  43. Also, Gold Derby’s boner for LES MIZ has gotten a little out of control, especially in the acting categories.

    They really really really really REALLY love it. The phenom around it reminds me a bit of FOTR.

  44. @Jerry

    I apologize if I am coming off as being upset someone has a differing opinion. It doesn’t seem it I’m sure, but I do hope it’s great, I just have serious doubts. Too often I am excited for a movie and build it up and it’s not what I WANTED and HOPED it would be. And given the love of this story and the musical it has a TON to live up to in all aspects from critics to voters to the general mass and to the avid fans of the musical. It could very well sweep and win the top prizes. I just am not there yet.

    I am still holding out hope Django throws everything out of whack.

    And as a couple other have stated, I wish Perks of Being a Wallflower was in the mix as it’s one of my top movies this year easily.

  45. Bold predix: Silver Linings Playbook does 100mil+ domestic box office … heard it here first

  46. unlikely hood

    Phantom’s right

  47. Pierre de Plume

    Let’s wait until all the excitement dies down. At this point I think Steve Pond, a reliable prognosticator, seems to be the only clear head in the house other than Sasha.

    I can believe that Les Miz will get a boatload of nominations — quite possibly more than Lincoln — but I don’t believe it’ll win best picture.

  48. Matt O'Callaghan

    We’re pretty fucking lucky to be getting all these quality films this year. There’s something for everyone. I must admit, it seems a lot of artists went for broke, and then went “wtf, everyone else has too”

    Let’s pause a little and enjoy all these films on their own merits…

    Done? Good, now let’s rip the shit out of everyone other film that’s not our favourite.

  49. Hm, I still doubt it. They usually give best director award to the best picture winner and I don’t see Tom Hooper winning 2nd time in 3 years! I have nothing against him, I simply think this is rather impossible.

  50. Question Mark

    I agree with the above comment. 2012 has been a much better overall year than 2011, which had lots of very good films but nothing truly Great or anything that made your hair stand on end.

    * Ironically, would Hooper have a better shot at BD this year if he’d lost two years ago? Like, if Fincher had won the Oscar in 2010, would voters be more apt to award Hooper in 2012 since they wouldn’t have to worry about the ‘twice in three years’ thing? (Or, do Academy voters not care nearly as much about Oscar stats as we do?)

    * That post about Les Miz dominating the acting categories is eye-opening and more plausible than we think. Jackman seems like a lock for a Best Actor nom and Hathaway is not just a lock for a Supporting nom, but also seemingly the win at this point. So that’s two in the bank, then you have up to three (Crowe, Redmayne and even Cohen) in supporting actor, plus maybe Carter and Barks both in with Hathaway in supporting actress. SEVEN acting noms?!

    Neither supporting category is terribly deep or established at this point. Jones seems like the only lock in SuppActor, with probably De Niro the second-most likely. Hoffman is hurt by The Master seemingly being forgotten over the last two months, DiCaprio simply by dint of the fact that we haven’t seen the movie yet and Arkin’s role in ‘Argo’ could be seen as basically just playing himself. So there’s certainly room for at least one of the Les Miz guys to sneak into the field, probably Redmayne since he’s the one who seems to have the most buzz.

    As for SuppActress, Hathaway’s foregone conclusion win has left the field dry. She’s a lock, Field is a lock for a nom, and Hunt/Adams are both in the maybe pile. Very easy to see Carter and Barks both get nominated and one of Hunt/Adams are left out in the cold.

    So seven acting noms is a longshot, but five is a distinct possibility at this point for Les Miz.

    * Hobbit and Django Unchained are the two big curveballs in the mix. You have a prequel to one of the most beloved (and awarded) film series ever. Then you have the latest release from a much-heralded director who is an Oscar favourite himself, not to mention one who tends to direct performers to Oscar-caliber performances (Waltz, Thurman, Jackson, Forster, Travolta, and I’ll put Pam Grier here too since I still can’t figure out how she didn’t get nominated). Very possible that DiCaprio hits his showy villain role out of the park and becomes as much of a favourite as Waltz was in 2009.

  51. Les Miz will never win the best costume award, not with Anna Karenina’s Jacqueline Durran and Mirror Mirror’s Eiko Ishioka, who will probably win the award posthumously.
    As for Les Miz setting a record number of nominations, highly unlikely, it would need about 5 acting nods (tying with all about eve). Assuming Hathaway, Jackman and Redmayne do get in it still needs two more. Supporting actress can contain only one more with Hunt, Field, Adams and Hathaway all locks. Barks seems the only one who can get in. None for Crowe, Bonham Carter and Seyfried.

  52. I WOULD RATHER SEE JACKMAN OR PHOENIX TAKE HOME THEIR FIRST OSCAR GOLD THAN DDL WINNING THIRD COME ON PEOPLE HE HAD WON TWO ALREADY!!! GIVE OTHERS A CHANCE THIS IS THEIR ONLY CHANCE I REALLY THINK JACKMAN SHINES AS JEAN VALJEAN AND DESERVE TO WIN HIS FIRST OSCAR.

  53. Guys, you really think anything will beat Lincoln’s brilliance? After ceremony everyone will see that other films were only fillers.

  54. Question Mark

    Oh yeah, Amanda Seyfried, forgot about her. There’s ANOTHER supporting nomination contender from Les Miz.

  55. Matt O'Callaghan

    Mecid – you were saying the same thing about Warhorse last year. Have you seen anything else? Have you seen Lincoln? Have you even seen Warhorse?

  56. Terometer

    Team Les Mis: Pete Hammond, Peter Travers, Ed Douglas, Kris Tapley.
    They have one thing in common: Before Les Mis, they really loved Lincoln. So, any questions about their taste? Accept what’s coming!

  57. mecid

    “Guys, you really think anything will beat Lincoln’s brilliance?”

    Unfortunately the Oscar-race has little do with brilliance. Arguably THE most brilliant films rarely even get the Best Picture nomination, let alone the award.

  58. that photo of Anne DISTURBS me everytime I see it … it’s definitely not a photo to be shown to people.

  59. I agree that it is going to be ridiculously difficult for any film to sweep this year. We have an amazing array of movies this year. That being said I do not agree with all these “formulas” being banded around. Sasha begs the question “do the critics no longer matter” – the Social Network year answers that question. Big box office – see The Hurt Locker. Huge metacritic percentages – see Crash. These formulas mean nothing. Its about campaigning people – see Harvey Weinstein. And finally it is all about emotional inpact. The Academy loves emotion. I honestly do not think we will get a true feel until the Guilds kick in – they are the best baramoter these days. Forget your bloggers, forget your critics ……. wait for the Guilds. And one last final comment – I think The Impossible is going to hit big too.

  60. @ Matt Ocallaghan

    I never said War Horse will win, I said they will wait for Lincoln to award Spielberg. And how can someone be such blind to not see facts.

    1)Lincoln passed critics. It has 86 on Metacritic. Argo and Master also have 86 but Lincoln has more average than them.
    2) Lincoln passed audience. 1st weekend $21,049,406. 2nd weekend $25,676,413. Best 2000+ thetaer hold out of December EVER. 1st weekend average $11,859. 2nd weekend average $12,724. How mant times you have seen film adds theaters and average increases, especially historical drama?
    3) Audience is mostly 40+ age, this tells you anything?

    And I have seen them. I didn’t watch War Horse as Oscar film but great film experiene.
    Coming to Oscar chances I said for me it is 2nd best film after Artist.
    And if we talk about sentimentality that most people trashed War Horse, isn’t there sentimental film ths year?

  61. *Impact – bring back the edit button!!! LOL

  62. Bob Burns

    I have a hard time believing, yet, that, as Sasha says, they will award Europe again, particularly given the strength of the American competition this time.

    Lincoln will be their brand of ham this time.

  63. Life of Pi is most likely going to win Cinematography, Visual Effects and one sound award at least this year.

  64. Maybe Hooper is really a great director? Who’s to say he won’t be a legend 20 years from now. That said, greatness isn’t measured by the number of Oscar wins.

  65. rufussondheim

    mecid assumes facts that are not in evidence.

    Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild and The Master all have more 100’s on Metacritic than Lincoln does. Now I know that’s not scientific or anything, but to imply that Lincoln’s “brilliance” is uncontested by any other film embodies a type of willful ignorance that needs to be exposed. Therefore, I am emposing it!

  66. rufus, 3rd point is the one that plays for AMPAS.

  67. rufussondheim

    So old people like Lincoln? Big Deal. Old people are going to like Les Miz even more. No one I know is more excited to see Les Miz than my mother who is 67. My facebook page is filled with people talking about going to see this film with their parents over christmas vacation.

  68. rufussondheim

    I should point out that this will be the first time my mother will go to the theater to see a movie since I took her to see a Beautiful Mind over a decade ago.

  69. Yeah, rufus. But Lincoln passed audience, Les Mis is not released yet.
    Surely many will love it but as Lincoln? We will see.
    Talking about critics I posted its metacritic rating just because it is so weird for critics to give Spielberg films deserved praise and I never expeted Lincoln to receive these praises.

  70. rufussondheim

    Yeah, it’s so weird for critics to praise Steven Spielberg. It’s nice to see he has a film that’s finally broken through with the critics. ET, Jaws, Schindler’s List, Raiders of the Lost Ark, Saving Private Ryan all got unfairly trashed by the critics. It’s nice to see they’ve finally come to their senses.

  71. Dost my eyes deceive me? Rufus championing Spielberg? Hahaha.

    He’s finally made a good movie since Munich, no wonder critics are responding positively to it.

    And they weren’t harsh enough on Saving Private Ryan if you ask me ;)

  72. So is Lincoln a better Spielberg movie due to Tony Kushner? Maybe he will be the screenwriter will be the one awarded Oscar night.

  73. rufussondheim

    Nope, Nik, I guess my sarcastic retort to mecid has misfired!

    Saving Private Ryan was awful. That’s when I learned the truth about Spielberg.

    Was going to see Lincoln today, but not in the mood to drive 30 minutes on snow-covered roads dominated by people who don’t know how to drive in the snow. Will see it tomorrow. Looks like I’m going to have to watch this DVD of Magic Mike instead. Poor me.

  74. Pierre de Plume

    Lincoln will be their brand of ham this time.

    That’s a good one, Bob Burns, and most likely true. There is, though, plenty of good competition to keep Lincoln from monopolizing the show.

  75. Ahh, gotcha rufus. Flew over my head that one did.

    plenty of good competition to keep Lincoln from monopolizing the show.

    If anything is monopolizing, it’s Les Miz. So you best believe Lincoln has competition.

  76. rufus, Are you paranoid or you jus want to see what you want?

    Spielberg after SPR:

    Artificial Intelligence: AI – 65
    Minority Report – 80
    Catch Me If You Can – 76
    The Terminal – 55
    War of the Worlds – 73
    Munich – 74
    Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull – 65
    Tintin – 68
    War Horse – 72

    Best one is Minority Report that can only reached 80. Is A.I only deserves 65 or Munich 74? Make poll among “cinephiles” and see which film they will choose as best Spielberg film. On AD users chose AI and Raiders as best Spielberg film with 15 votes each.

  77. Pierre de plume

    If anything is monopolizing, it’s Les Miz. So you best believe Lincoln has competition.

    I suspect things will die down a bit Les Miz once it’s released wide.

  78. rufussondheim

    Yes, mecid, I see your point. How I could have gotten “critics” confused with “cinephiles” is beyond me. Right after Peter Travers wrote his review for The Perks of Being a Wallflower, he no doubt got back to work evaluating the latest line of Lowe’s snow shovels for his blog “Shovel Me Lovely.”

    Did you ever think that maybe none of those films listed deserved great reviews? I though Minority Report was passable. I couldn’t even watch Catch Me if You Can to completion. And the last Indy Jones movie was easily the worst film I’ve seen in the theater since Robin Williams’ Club Paradise back in 1986.

  79. rufus, why you avoid the point? Three films A.I, Minority Report, Munich are on some best of decade lists. Why Spielberg’s post SPR films get their price after some years it was released? I imagine if these films’ director was another one, critics would lick every minute of them.

    And you really should have stopped on “Saving Private Ryan was awful” part.

  80. Phantom, the only problem is that you treat the Best Picture Oscar as a formula. You say things like “it NEEDS this” when I doubt most Academy members don’t care, they just vote for what they like it the most or what they think should win. Chill out, man, it isn’t a report card!

  81. rufussondheim

    mecid, if they are on the best of the decade lists (which I frankly I am skeptical of) then clearly the critics are giving them the die respect they deserve. So not sure why you are bitching?

  82. I think it would be awesome to see Charlize Theron slip into the Supporting Actress category for SNOW WHITE AND THE HUNTSMAN. Am I the only one who thinks her maniacal queen was worth the Gold??

  83. If I have to hear one more self-important movie reviewer start a review with: “I don’t like musicals”. You know what? If you don’t like musicals, why are you reviewing one? Leave that to those with knowledge, discernment, and yes, passion, for the art form. Ignorance of and disdain for an art form you have been tasked with reviewing is neither a virtue nor relevant.

    But I digress. I am not a HUGE Les Mis fan, but I like it alright. I think the music is kinda cheesy. That said, Hollywood ignored musicals for thirty years. In that time, there have been several musicals ripe for being made into a film, and we are enjoying a new golden age right now. Yes, there have been some misfires, but in the last ten years we’ve had Chicago, Hairspray, Sweeney Todd, Dreamgirls, and now Les Mis (and potentially Into the Woods!). I’m just grateful that Hollywood finally caught on, and is picking the cream of the crop from the last three decades.

  84. Catherine

    Rufus,
    One could argue that a repeatedly uniform, anti-Speilberg stance is as ‘groupthink’ as any fan of the man. I asked my cousin if she was going to see Lincoln, she answered curtly: ‘I don’t like Speilberg.’
    Her mind is made up sight unseen and its her loss.
    I could care less about the dinosaur movie, even less about the Indy series – not my thing. And I get the charge of ‘sentimentality’ and sometimes get the urge during one of his films to strangle John Williams with a violin string…..But Minority Report and Munich are two of the edgiest, ballsy and most cerebral films of the last decade.
    As for Saving Private Ryan: I interviewed a veteran of the Normandy invasion last year for a story. This man, like most combat vets, had never talked much about his experiences during the war, to his family or friends – until recently. He said none of the war movies ever ‘got it right’….until Saving Private Ryan. When he recalled seeing the film he winced – like he was remembering some visceral experience.
    I think I think I’ll take his word on it.
    BTW Rufus,

    Did you ever see Lincoln?

  85. rufussondheim

    Not yet. Was going to see it today, but wasn’t in the mood to navigate heavy traffic on snowy suburban streets. It’s definitely in the mix for tomorrow. Planning on catching the 12:05 show.

  86. Tero Heikkinen

    What I don’t seem to do is thank Sasha. I’m a dick. In a same sentence I should thank Ryan. I wanted to do this in that Thanksgiving thread, but I missed it. I have no idea what Thanksgiving really is. But to me, Sasha is my hero.

    Why am I here? People at Les Mis really gave a HUGE party for HFPA. Eating at Spago and then after party with the stars, but come on. Huge fucking party. 90 people are so easy to bribe.

    Lincoln is in trouble after GG.

  87. SeattleMoviegoer

    Amen to Chowski. It gets so old on these movie chats when a musical comes along. invariably, people DO begin their posts or reviews with, “I don’t like musicals, but…” yet, it’s a genre. a very OLD genre. a basic genre…as much as the western. if you’re serious about movies at all you’ve invested time in watching WIZARD OF OZ, WEST SIDE STORY, Minnelli musicals, Lubitsch musicals, Busby Berkeley, Astaire and Rogers, Gene Kelly, Stanley Donen, etc. it ain’t nuthin’ new. get over it. otherwise your depth of understanding as a movie fan is pretty shallow. telling us that you “don’t like musicals, but…” is an attempt to display a certain level of “cool” that you don’t want tarnished. too late. it’s already slimed. if you can’t “get into” one of the most basic areas in film, you’re a fanboy…drooling over the next scifi or comic book movie.

  88. It would go down in history beating Steven Spielberg’s Lincoln, David O. Russell’s Silver Linings Playbook, Kathryn Bigelow’s Zero Dark Thirty, all great American directors telling American stories. Funny, that. – Sarcasm eh? Do you think if SLP wins, it won over Lincoln and ZDT? or if ZDT wins it won over Lincolna and SLP? Sasha’s getting flashbacks of TKS beating TSN two years ago. Dear Sasha, accept that fact that your taste and the AMPAS taste are different. It’s not the end of the world. You said that the Oscars are shallow so why get so affected by it? Why not go make your own awards show? :D

  89. Tero Heikkinen

    Funny how post-Saving Private Ryan war films are almost always copying its style. SPR set new standards there.

    As for actual wins, right now I feel:

    Best Picture: Lincoln
    Best Director: Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
    Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
    Best Actress: Emmanuelle Riva – Amour
    Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln
    Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway – Les Misérables
    Best Original Screenplay: The Master
    Best Adapted Screenplay: Lincoln
    Best Foreign Language Film: Amour
    Best Film Editing: Argo
    Best Cinematography: Life of Pi
    Best Original Score: Lincoln
    Best Original Song: Les Misérables
    Best Art Direction: Les Misérables
    Best Costume Design: Les Misérables
    Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Lincoln
    Best Sound Mixing: The Dark Knight Rises
    Best Sound Editing: Life of Pi
    Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi
    Best Animated Feature: Frankenweenie

    This would mean that top winners are Lincoln with 7 wins, Les Mis with 4 and Life of Pi with 3 wins.

  90. Filipe

    We’ll see, precedent backs up those ‘requirements’.

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