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Les Miserables Screens in New York, Twitter Declares Hathaway the Winner, Strong Contender to Win BP

I was at my second screening of Life of Pi when the eruption from Twitter proclaimed rapturous, ecstatic acclaim for Les Miserables.  Apparently the crowd went nuts, on their feet, in tears – it was probably as best as you can hope for for a late-breaking Oscar contender, and one that people who aren’t behind Lincoln and can’t abide Silver Linings Playbook can get behind – passion, emotion, intensity, something to root for. I will be able to give you a better idea tomorrow. Scott Feinberg put up a quickie review and Movieline did a rundown too:

Some tweets:

Kris Tapley: “Love you, “Lincoln.” But enjoy this lead while it lasts.”

Kris Tapley: Feels like 10 nods for Lincoln and 12 for Les Miserables. Holy moly. Something’s gotta give.

Kris Tapley: Hathaway wins. GOD. I wept. Film’s a triumph. They’re on their feet here. NYC crowd ate…it…up. #lesmiserables

Dave Karger: First #LesMiserables screening went over extremely well. I’d call it a sure thing Picture nominee for Oscar and the probable Globe winner.

Dave Karger: Anne Hathaway could easily win supporting actress. Her “I Dreamed a Dream” is the showstopper. #LesMiserables

84 Comments on this Post

  1. Stephen Cross

    Anne’s going to get her Oscar!!

  2. SAG Actor

    I was at the screening, and it was indeed very emotional and will definitely get nominated, but winning is another story. Anne Hathaway was a solid leader from the trailer alone, but she nails the physical transformation, and what is the rule about nuns and whores always getting nominated?

    Russell Crowe doesn’t embarrass himself, but he’s no great singer and will go the way of Richard Gere in Chicago.

    Hooper is very faithful to the musical, which is fine but rather uninteresting storywise for people who know the musical backwards and forward. And the new song adds nothing.

    I say the nominations will be: Picture, Actor, S. Actress, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Song, Make-up, Costume, Sound Mixing, Sound Effect Editing and Production Design.

  3. Lincoln is terrific and relevant, but I would think if Les Mis is on the same level, they will give it to Les Mis. It has visual and narrative scope and isn’t just an actors’ movie.

  4. Profile photo of Sasha Stone

    You think Lincoln’s just an actors’ movie?

  5. Houstonrufus

    Sasha, I sort of take issue with your intro to this. I am an avid Lincoln supporter. But I also love the stage musical adaptation of Les Miserables. After seeing Lincoln, I was hoping it would march through and take all the lead awards. But I find my heart pretty divided at the prospect of having to choose between these two, if indeed Les Mis lives up to this early hype. But you know what? We should consider ourselves lucky to have such a competitive year. We don’t have to cast the competition in such black and white shades of worthy and unworthy. Particularly if the consensus seems to be we have more than one worthy film.

  6. Lincoln could still win best picture because of its box office revenue. I’ve seen it 5 times already. I saw Silver Linings Playbook today,and I thought it was good but not great. Maybe, it’s because I went to see it with high expectations given the raving reviews of it. I knew though that Jennifer Lawrence will give a good performance,but the real standout to me was Bradley cooper. I give it 2 1/2 stars out of 4. Lincoln 4 out of 4, life of pi 3 1/2 out of 4, Argo 4/4 , Cloud atlas 4/4, Anna karenina 3/4, and the master 3/4

  7. It seems like all the screening reports have said that there were raves and crying people. IDK. It’s hard to tell the difference if you’re not at them I guess.

  8. Rg – I think Les Mis stands to have a pretty impressive BO – both domestically *and* internationally. How is Lincoln expected to do overseas?

  9. With Les Mis and Zero Dark Thirty screenings, the race should come into sharp focus in the next few days–how exciting!

  10. I’m bumping out Joaquin Phoenix for Hugh Jackman in the Actor category.

    1) Daniel Day Lewis
    2) Denzel Washington
    3) John Hawkes
    4) Bradley Cooper
    5) Hugh Jackman

  11. Supporting Actress

    1) Anne Hathaway
    2) Helen Hunt
    3) Sally Field
    4) Amy Adams
    5) Gloria Reuben

  12. Purlgurl- Lincoln won’t be releasing overseas until January to February next year,but given its $65 million production budget. It’s already on track to gross more than $60 million domestically and lets just say $50 million internationally; it shouldn’t be a problem. Besides, ampas might probably announced the nomination before Lincoln’s international roll out. As of right, domestic box office is what matters for Lincoln.

  13. Purl gurl and I agree with you, les mis is going to be a box office hit.

  14. Jack Traven II

    I really envy all of who’s already able to see it. Seems to be a pretty good (Oscar) year for films.

  15. Good grief…all aboard the ABTHALM* bandwagon. This can’t be happening.

    *= Anybody But Tom Hooper and Les Miz

  16. We all knew Les Miserables would be great, melt hearts, and win best picture at the oscars! Its the biggest Oscar juggernaut ive ever seen. No surprise to me at all.

  17. Pierre de Plume

    Anne Hathaway has a lot going for her — her performance, good work under her belt, and a valiant effort to save the Oscarcast a couple years ago. Voters don’t forget that stuff.

    But Sally Field is formidable competition.

    I hope to goodness that Helen Hunt goes lead — she and the role deserve it.

  18. Bob Burns

    Les Miserables and Lincoln, both of the 1860’s. It would be difficult to judge which has had a greater historical impact…. Les Miserables certainly far more than any other work of art. Lincoln has his shrine; Hugo, was/is often called the father of the French Republic, and was laid in state under the Src de Triomphe, and honor shared with two others only, Napoleon and de Gaulle, lsrgely because of the revolutionary Les Miserables.

    Worthy contenders.

  19. Why do I get the sense that this could end up just like Shakespeare in Love and Saving Private Ryan…

    Spielberg in top notch form with an across the board hit…he takes the best director oscar for that, coupled with Hooper just winning a couple years ago.

    But Les Miz wins Best Pic.

  20. I think I’ve said before that if Les Mis can bring the emotional impact that the trailer had it would be a big contender against Argo. I’m glad it’s as good as it seemed. I’m also very happy for Tom Hooper.

    Now lets hope something comes along and drowns the chances of Lawrence and Cooper. Gere deserves the slot for male, and every female actress deserves it more than Lawrence. The hype has killed Lawrence. From what I’ve heard the script had to be changed to make it less about a depressed guy and make it more a comedy about mental illness.

  21. I REALLY hope that Tom Hooper doesn’t get another Oscar. Give it to Affleck’s masterful piece of work. I know Affleck already has an Oscar as well, but not for director. Plus, we all know David Fincher was the REAL winner when Hooper won that year. Don’t let him take it away from Affleck, P.T Anderson or Spielberg.

  22. First of all : Hallelujah, Les Miserables will be a strong contender, at least the season won’t be boring with such a strong top2. Had its reception been any less enthusiastic, they could have just mailed all the Oscars to the Lincoln-contenders, a film I can’t wait to see in January (I’ll have a chance to see Les Mis sometime in December). Also, hopefully Zero Dark Thirty is a masterpiece and Chastain nails her important role, then ALL at-the-moment-frontrunners will have strong competition after all.

    Now the biggest question remains : could Les Miserables beat the nomination-record ? Previous recordholders are All About Eve and Titanic with 14, Les Miserables is up for nominations in 14 categories BUT now has the real potential to score multiple nods in supporting actress and/or supporting actor. So if it goes 14/14 which sounds perfectly doable at the moment (picture, director, adapted screenplay, actor, s. actor, s. actress, song, cinematography, editing, costume, production design, makeup, sound, sound editing), it only needs ONE of the Barks-Seyfried-Redmayne trio to make the cut to reach the magical 15…the supporting actress race was lacking a strong fifth contender to complete the near-lock Hathaway-Field-Hunt-Adams quartet, and the iconic role of Eponine might just help Barks become that lucky fifth AND frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Academy found the romantic couple swoonworthy enough to nominate the Seyfried-Redmayne duo, according to early word BOTH are headed to critical acclaim for their performances.

    Also, way too early to speculate about conspiracy theories, but seeing the unusually high number of ‘questionablyleadinglady-downgrades’, do you think the Academy might call bullshit on one of them and nominate Field or Hunt in lead Reader-style ? I think they might upgrade Sally Field. She might be supporting, but she is also the female lead, a category she won TWICE and next year will be her 50th anniversary in the business. I could see them honor her this way…especially if Lincoln will have the edge over Les Miserables.

    Rg

    I’m fairly certain Lincoln will end its US run over 120M and with probably slightly less on the international circuit. It is a great Box Office hit, and frankly, I’m just glad to see quality adult-skewing films like Lincoln, Flight, Argo, Skyfall, Life of Pi etc. doing so well at the Box Office. It was about damn time the industry got a wake-up call that hopefully reminds them that they don’t have to pursue only reboots, remakes, sequels, TV adaptations etc. in order to make serious profit.

    Pierre de Plume

    Helent Hunt is now officially in supporting according to the distributur’s FYC-site.

    Ok, wordvomit OVER…for now.

  23. Kevin Klawitter

    I wonder what Jeff Wells will think about it. If he treats it like “Lincoln” he’ll have to work double hard, because it is SLP’s biggest competitor at the Globes.

  24. Sasha, I think Lincoln is a terrific movie, and may be better than Les Mis (won’t know till I see it), but it wouldn’t surprise me if the Academy perceives it as too much of an actors’ movie to win Best Picture up against something like Les Mis if it’s good enough. In reality I expect Lincoln to get 10+ wins and probably win for not only Lead and Supporting Actor, but also Screenplay and probably Makeup. Still, it may be too smart and talky for a plurality of voters (think The Lion in Winter or Network and think of what beat them). Then again, it’s a literate American crowd-pleaser, so they might not be able to resist.

  25. *10+ noms, lol.

  26. Jeff Wells should just give up. It was surprisingly dellusional when he thought Silver Linings Playbook actually had a shot against Lincoln, but the chances of Silver Linings Playbook beating Lincoln AND Les Miserables ? Non-existent. Again, I’m not sure it could even muster a Best Director nomination : Spielberg, Affleck, Hooper are now locks, Ang Lee is damn close to lock-status, especially if ‘Pi’ has a leggy BO-run (100M+ in the US), Kathryn Bigelow could EASILY complete the top5,hopefully ZD30 won’t disappoint. It just doesn’t seem like the kind of year when a decent crowdpleaser could make the cut in BP, there are too many important films in 2012. I’m sure SLP will get a BP-nod, I simply doubt its top5-status.

    Also, they could pull another Malick with one of the risktakers, too (PTA, Tarantino,Haneke, Nolan, Wright, Wachowskis/Tykwer) and that still leaves the contender with the (IMO) greatest potential to SHOCK : Juan Antonio Bayona. So, I guess my question is this : are we really THAT sure the Academy would bump one of those auteurs who ALL excelled remarkably challenging materal this year (jury is still out on Bigelow, I know), for David O. Russell who directed a decent dramedy that still has to prove its crowdpleaser-status at the Box Office ?

  27. I have to agree with Josh – I think there’s a good chance that Les Miz wins BP and Spielberg wins BD. I can’t imagine Hooper winning 2 in 3 years… And it’s a way to say, hey Steve, we still love ya. I can see Les Miz winning 6 (Pic, Sup Actress, Production Design, Costumes, Sound Mixing and Song) and Lincoln winning 4 (Dir, Actor, Sup Actor and Screenplay). Throw in an Editing for Argo, Cinematography and Score for Life of Pi, Orig Screenplay for The Master, a Sound for The Dark Knight Rises, F/x for The Avengers and Cloud Atlas for Make-up, and with exception of ZD30 and SLP, almost all the great films this year are covered. (Flight, Skyfall, Perks of Being a Wallflower and Moonrise Kingdom will have to get along without wins as terrific as they all were.) Still have NO idea about Best Actress, but I don’t see Jennifer Lawrence winning it.

    What a great film year and how exciting to have so many worthy contenders this year. I’ve already seen Lincoln twice, and can’t wait for the release of Les Miz. Unless Les Miz isn’t all that, which I highly doubt, I will be happy if either Lincoln or Les Miz wins. When was the last time we had 2 films running against each other in which both films could not only be considered the best of its year, but of all time. (It’s like All about Eve and Sunset Blvd, like Rebecca and The Grapes of Wrath, Cabaret and The Godfather, Best Years of Our Lives and It’s a Wonderful Life, Lawrence of Arabia and To Kill a Mockingbird, and GWTW & Wizard of Oz & Mr Smith…and we’re all the richer for it!)

  28. Dave B,
    I agree almost unanimously with your observations. But I think Lincoln could win Best Score(maybe the Academy thinks the time is right to award him again, especially after denying him last year despite two noms?) And The Hobbit might take Song and Makeup, regardless how the film turns out(Song of the Lonely Mountain was HAUNTING). And you forgot Best Visual Effects for Life of Pi, which it almost certainly will win(but again, don’t underestimate The Hobbit – LOTR won in that category for three years in a row). Also, if Jessica Chastain wows in ZD30, the Best Actress race is going to heat up. ZD30 could also give Argo a run for its money in Editing(if Argo, the clear frontrunner a few weeks ago, ends up with nothing, its going to be a real joke).

    One more year to add to your Best Oscar BP Lineup: 1994 – Forrest Gump vs The Shawshank Redemption vs Pulp Fiction(with a special shout out to The Lion King, which, in my opinion, was as good as any of the above).

  29. Tero Heikkinen

    This scenario that has scared me for months already: Les Mis winning BP and Spielberg BD. They just can’t do that to Spielberg again, and I would dislike Shakespeare In Love’s win even more then. I don’t dislike the film, I dislike its win. There’s a difference.

    I’d rather see Les Mis winning BP and Affleck BD than throwing Spielberg another “consolation prize”.

    Lincoln is on its way to 200M worldwide (120M Domestic), Spielberg’s name is bigger than any of the actors’. Les Mis is own its way to 400M (220M Domestic) worldwide. No surprise there.

    Also, I wonder if The Hobbit actually makes it to Top 8-10 (if they have that many nominees). It’s 2hrs and 50mins so they probably have something there. Is Les Mis three hours, btw? Lincoln is “only” two and a half.

    Soon, we should start respecting Tom Hooper’s film more and type the whole name. I’ve shorten it myself in these comments, but the use of letter “z” is irritating even. Looks childish.

  30. “(maybe the Academy thinks the time is right to award him again, especially after denying him last year despite two noms?)”

    By “him” I meant John Williams

  31. Tero Heikkinen

    We got it, Max :)

    He’s the greatest film composer ever, so we got it.

  32. It is probably down to Lincoln and Les Miserables now. Silver Linings Playbook simply can’t compete with those two and Argo, though probably a solid top5 contender (BP/BD nods), won’t come close either, ESPECIALLY if it fails to receive an acting nomination, which is a real possibility, I think. I’ve just seen the film and while the Arkin-Goodman-Cranston trio was VERY solid (so was Affleck, by the way), I don’t think they can overcome the split votes OR compete with flashy performances like the ones Philip Seymour Hoffman, Tommy Lee Jones, Robert De Niro, Ewan McGregor, Russel Crowe, Jude Law, Matthew McConaughey, Eddie Redmayne, Javier Bardem, Michael Caine delivered, not to mention the two unseens, Leonardo DiCaprio and Jason Clarke, both have the potential to emerge as top5 players in the end. Same goes for Life of Pi, BP/BD nominations could easily happen, but without an acting nod, or more importantly, without the Actors Branch, it doesn’t stand a chance in the long run, not when the two frontrunners feature, big, flashy ensembles. Now if Suraj Sharma managed to sneak into the ridiculously competitive Best Actor category AND the film turned into an international surprise hit, THEN I would have to reconsider my theory.

  33. Yeah, Tero. I really can’t imagine they will do the same thing with Spielberg again. I think if he wins BD, film will also win BP.
    or they want Spielberg to follow John Ford’s way? 4 BD and 1 BP Oscar.

  34. moviewatcher

    “Kris Tapley: Hathaway wins.”

    No shit?

  35. moviewatcher

    Wouldn’t it be amazing if reaction for Zero Dark Thirty tomorrow were even more rapturous? And then reaction to Django and The Hobbit were even more wonderful?

    Wouldn’t that be awesome… what a year this would be then…

  36. Rapture in the Twitterverse only indicates that supporters of the film are pleased by the results. “I cheered, I wept, I crapped my pants,” does not constitute an analysis or review – it’s the knee-jerk emotional response of the likeminded to what is obviously a heartfelt rendition of a well trod, beloved musical.

    Breathe deep, everyone. There are more than two horses in this race.

  37. I saw Lincoln last night. LOVED it. It’s my fave of the year right now.

    And hearing this great news about Les Miserables has me even more excited. I’m SO looking forward to it.

    It certainly is a wonderful Oscar season, thus far. And the battle will be fascinating to watch (Lincoln, Les Miserables, Argo, SLP, Life of Pi, ZD30).

  38. It would, moviewatcher. It would indeed.

    So now it seems we’ve got ourselves a race. I cannot wait to see Les Mis after these first reactions. I love Lincoln, but I can’t commit completely without seeing Les Mis, yet. However, reading that Hugh Jackman is not a shoe-in for the the BA win is comforting. Don’t get me wrong, I like Hugh Jackman a lot, but this is DDL’s third. It has to be…

    …here is hoping.

    After I see Les Mis, I will have an opinion about Tom Hooper’s work.

    Looking forward to know what you thought of Les Mis, Sasha.

  39. “Wouldn’t it be amazing if reaction for Zero Dark Thirty tomorrow were even more rapturous?”

    Yes, moviewatcher, but that won’t happen because the audience that’s going to be smitten by Zero Dark Thirty doesn’t wear its collective heart on its sleeve like the audience for Les Mis. Doesn’t mean the same intensity of enthusiasm isn’t there, but it will manifest itself differently.

    Twitter’s great for measuring immediate response (of those who tweet), but it’s likely not a big part of the Nate Silver algorithm of longterm expectations. The Friday nite party atmosphere can quickly evaporate by the middle of the next week.

  40. Rapture in the Twitterverse only indicates that supporters of the film are pleased by the results. “I cheered, I wept, I crapped my pants,” does not constitute an analysis or review – it’s the knee-jerk emotional response of the likeminded to what is obviously a heartfelt rendition of a well trod, beloved musical.

    Hear hear! My inherent scepticism is ignited with every catatonically happy report I read about this film. As we know, that’s not the kind of thing that propels a film to Oscar glory. It’s the broad appeal that counts. As Lincoln continues to perform excellently at the box office and Argo edges ever closer to $100 million, where’s the sense in declaring a film the frontrunner based on one screening? Remember when that happened last year with War Horse?

    The critics’ groups could change everything, as they often do. Then the guilds could do the same. Then the Academy could too. Can’t we all keep our collective hair on for now? It’s fucking November.

  41. Why don’t people want Les miz to win when they HAVEN’T seen the film?

  42. So basically they are just saying the same things all of us said when we saw the first trailer?

    lmao, oh critics, you are our entertainment

  43. “Why don’t people want Les miz to win when they HAVEN’T seen the film?”

    That’s not it, at all, Luke. Like Paddy said, be cautious of single screenings targetting to a handpicked audience. Wait and see what the overall reception is.

    Sounds like the crowd was more than pleased, positively orgasmic with the results, so I envy their experience. I just hope they were all wearing condoms, that’s all.

  44. rufussondheim

    Les Miserables has been known as Les Miz for decades amongst the musical theater crowd, I don’t think it’s a dismissive shortening at all.

    If I recal, even though many were rapturous about War Horse last year, there was a lot of hesitation in many of the tweets. While people are hesitant about aspects of Les Miz, when it comes to the film itself people are not hesitant.

    As for being rapturous…

    In September people were rapturous about The Master
    In October people were rapturous about Argo
    In November people are rapturous about Lincoln
    In December people will be rapturous about Les Miserable.
    In January I will still be rapturous about The Perks of Being a Wallflower. (I had to do it!)

    Any way you look at it, this will be a boom year for Oscar. Hopefully the precursors will not all go for one film, because this obviously has the potential for being a memorable year and ratings could be the best in years and probably the best for years to come.

    But more than that, the Oscars will finally be embracing movies that are both box office and critical successes. This is great for all of us. Maybe we could be at the beginning of a studio renaissance. Heck even the blockbusters are better than they were ten years ago.

  45. Rapture in the Twitterverse only indicates that supporters of the film are pleased by the results. “I cheered, I wept, I crapped my pants,” does not constitute an analysis or review – it’s the knee-jerk emotional response of the likeminded to what is obviously a heartfelt rendition of a well trod, beloved musical.

    Breathe deep, everyone. There are more than two horses in this race.

    Hear! Hear!

    Every year we lament how the Oscar race is so boring and predictable and yet most of the comments in this thread are ready to call it for one of two films. There are still films unseen and there are more than two out there already that should still be in play. Just because Oscarwatchers have short term memories doesn’t mean the people who actually vote have even started thinking about this stuff yet. They could be trying to figure out how else to eat turkey.

    Nothing has happened yet. Nothing at all. No awards. So I’m gonna prescribe chill pills to everyone so we can all enjoy a year with several great and deserving films. I hope Les Mis is as great as it would seem from yesterday’s reaction. I’ll finally be seeing LINCOLN later today unless I get hit by an asteroid or something. But lets all have fun this year, we’ve never really had a year like it.

    ftr, I’ve been calling Les Mis “Les Mis” all this time because that’s what I’ve always heard it called, for decades. I don’t know anyone who ever bothered with the erables.

  46. Hey. Paddy said “hear hear” too. I didn’t even see that. :) Okay, now everyone has to listen.

  47. Let’s see how this movie plays in middle America before we start proclaiming it the winner. Remember Dreamgirls got standing ovations at screenings in NY and LA and didn’t get nominated (I do think this will). If the movi does Lincoln/Argo type business we have a race. I would caution though that it could also do Rock of Ages business and Les Miz doesn’t have the benefit of having the biggeat star in Hollywood.

  48. “I don’t know anyone who ever bothered with the erables.”

    Other than maple syrup producers (humor for my fellow Canadians)

  49. rufussondheim

    This movie will NOT do Rock of Ages business.

    You clearly don’t know the passion and love for this musical, it is way higher than any other musical in my lifetime (oh how I wish people loved Sunday in the Park with George!) and the talk of it is quite high amongst the masses, well at least the masses I mass with.

    I’ve been saying all along, expect 100 million by New Year’s Day, and 200 million by the end of January. This is a movie that certain types will see three four five times in the theater. It wouldn’t surprise me if the box office hit 300 million.

  50. It won’t be Saving Private Ryan vs. Shakespeare In Love. They could well make a historic fight for the top prize but there are just a couple of big differences. SIL was backed by Weinstein and the weakness of SPR were its screenplay and, in terms of awards, the lack of enthusiasm from the actors voters because it was far from being an actors film.

  51. rufussondheim

    I also want to point out that the love triangle of Eponine/Marius/Cosette which dominates the middle of the film will be catnip to teen girls, a group that will not discover this film the opening weekend, but will discover it when enough of the teen theater crowd sees it and reports back to them.

  52. rufussondheim

    I mean, “On My Own” will be the anthem for any teen girl who has ever loved a boy and not been loved in return.

  53. Terometer

    Goodbye to team Lincoln and team silver linings. It will be Argo vs. Les Miserables.

  54. Anne Hathaway had the buzz all year long, even when the movie was still unseen.
    I’m glad she turned out to be what I’ve thought the moment I saw the trailer: an undinable Oscar winner.
    Go Anne! 8)

  55. A week after seeing Lincoln and it doesn’t stick. It’s all very well done but it doesn’t haunt. There was something so safe about it. It, like The Master (the whitewashiest portrait of lunatic L. Ron Hubbard imaginable), is a film that refuses to explore the shadow. God, Oscar bait filmmaking has become so sanitized.

  56. You are right Terometer, 25 million 2nd weekend for Lincoln in comparison 21 million 1st weekend. You have to follow race more attentive. :)

  57. $300 million for Les Mis? I’d bet my life savings against it.

    I don’t think $200 million is within reach either.

  58. Tero Heikkinen

    I think 200M will happen. Chicago made 170M, but of course it didn’t make any money before the Oscar nominations/wins. Les MiZZZ will make tons when it gets those 10+ nominations.

    But 300M is overplaying it. Not everybody lives in London or New York, and it’s not something everybody knows. I can base this on Susan Boyle. When she sang that song, I had to inform quite a few people about its origin.

    It’s gonna need those Academy Award nominations to reach 200M. Expect a rise after its first two weeks of release (Jan. 10th to be exact), when all the fans have already seen it, and everybody else gets interested.

  59. Can we all just agree that this year in film is twice as strong as last year? The Artist and Dujardin wouldn’t have a prayer this year.

  60. Last year was only weak because of what the Academy picked. A film like Take Shelter could take Les Mis easily.

  61. As Matthew McConaughey told us in Bernie, it’s Less Miss Rables lol. I agree there’s passion. My question is how much of it is outside NY AND LA?

  62. Dave B: ” I can see Les Miz winning 6 (Pic, Sup Actress, Production Design, Costumes, Sound Mixing and Song) and Lincoln winning 4 (Dir, Actor, Sup Actor and Screenplay). Throw in an Editing for Argo, Cinematography and Score for Life of Pi, Orig Screenplay for The Master, a Sound for The Dark Knight Rises, F/x for The Avengers.”

    Rough translation: “Festival films get the shiny awards, critic/fan populist blockbusters get micro-breadcrumbs.”

  63. Matt O'Callaghan

    I don’t know what world you live in, but those two are, or about to become critic approved blockbusters. As are many others in the race.
    You may need to change you definition to critic/fan approved, spandex wearing blockbusters.

  64. John Flake

    Nothing matters until the Guilds. Just ask David Fincher.

  65. Paul H, Les Mis isnt a festival movie…

  66. Just see the Broadway play. They actually do it live.

  67. unlikely hood

    Rufus there’s no chance on the planet that Les Miz (as its promoters have called it for decades) earns $300 mil in the US. Perhaps you meant internationally. That could maybe happen. But anyway it won’t need to do more than be a hit – like, Top 3 throughout January and early February – to have that argument in its Oscar favor.

    Phantom: 15 Oscar nods? Now you’re getting silly. 12 would be a smashing triumph.

    I agree that it’s nice to see a good year – and a competitive year.

  68. Tero Heikkinen

    Tonight’s tweets are not all praise. Craig Kennedy and Sasha have seen this now and both seem to believe that Lincoln is still winning. Hathaway will be Les Mis’ big award, and one of the surest bets of all categories. Funny how the extremely early frontrunners hold their places in their own groups.

  69. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    Funny how the extremely early frontrunners hold their places in their own groups.

    Really funny. I might never stop laughing.

  70. Tero Heikkinen

    I know, it’s hard :D

    Was this New York screening for fans of the musical or is it just because it’s New York and the show’s been playing there for years and years?

    I would imagine that Les Mis is getting tons of repeat viewings (from the likes of Rufus) and will make 200M in North America and another 150M overseas. More if it wins. It will be a hit anyway.

  71. rufussondheim

    I didn’t say it will make 300 mill, I said I wouldn’t be surprised. We’ll see :)

  72. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    I think it would serve the movie better if we don’t burden it with heavy box-office expectations. If we name high numbers and it doesn’t reach those heights then even $150 will feel like a fail.

    Studios understand it’s best to lowball and then be happy when the more conservative amount is passed. $120 domestic would be seen as a spectacular success, don’t you think? That could mean $400+ worldwide.

  73. rufussondheim

    Since I plan on seeing it 16 times, Ryan, I think the box office will hit 150 bucks. If not, my suspicions that the old guy who’s been taking my money all these years is embezzling it to buy bread for his family will be correct.

    Ryan, if you think my (realistic) predictions can sway an industry, well, I guess I’m flattered! I know some here think I am being too enthusiastic, but I really don’t think so.

    A quick Google search shows that well over 50 million have seen the stage show since it debuted. That’s worldwide. That probably totals well over 2 billion dollars. Now I have no idea how that translates to US Box Office but I think it’s a good insight into the potential.

  74. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    Ryan, if you think my (realistic) predictions can sway an industry

    Don’t sell yourself short. But really I’m thinking more about expectations raised just among our readers — just for my own self-protection, I try not to imagine the best possible numbers.

    50 million have seen the stage show since it debuted.

    well, but how many millions have died. oh shit, did you feel that? Did we lose another one? R.I.P.

  75. As long as it isn’t horrible I don’t see how it won’t make huge money. Since we’ve started talking about this film, I’ve noticed that people underestimated, for good or ill, how much normal people (non-theater types) are familiar with it. My complaint was always that people who were familiar with a previous version would compare the singing, not be happy with what they heard, and start bad word of mouth. But from last night’s raves that doesn’t look to be a problem. I guess they just picked weak points for the trailers. With the rave it should sail over $100M. I’d say maybe by it’s first weekend, since Christmas is a Tuesday. It’s not going to suffer from DJANGO and I don’t think it would have from THE HOBBIT either. People will see them all.

  76. 50 million have seen the stage show since it debuted.

    well, but how many millions have died. oh shit, did you feel that? Did we lose another one? R.I.P.

    Not a problem. They all got reincarnated into “Glee” fans. They will be there. :P

  77. Never trust twitter reactions. The screening was filled with an audience of people associated with the Broadway show, which the movie recreates. To expect anything but a rapturous response would be foolish. Still waiting and seeing.
    Hathaway lost a lot of weight and sings a song. Not sure what it says about her as an actor, but it gets the usual awards attention.

  78. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    With the rave it should sail over $100M. I’d say maybe by it’s first weekend

    ok, you mean first full week, right?

    The biggest Christmas Day +6 day total in movie history is $93 million.

    obviously I need to go listen to that dream-a-dream song and get some optimism.

  79. I think it could have a massive Christmas day. Because it will be a multi-generational crowd, families might go together. Boom. $50 million. The only problem is if they lose the old folks to Billy Crystal and Bette Midler, but I don’t think so. I think the people who loved the song before anyone ever heard of Susan Boyle will be waiting for the film and will go ASAP.

    Then you just need $35 on the following weekend. No prob.

    That is as long as it’s good as they say. If not then it will plummet. People won’t go if they heard they can’t sing. It all depends on this. *shakes fist*

    Or if they decide on a stupid release strategy like rolling it out. But I think that’s already set, right? Wide on Christmas?

  80. I forgot my “M”. $35M not 35 bucks. lol That would mean rufus snuck in.

  81. Anything resembling another SPRyan/Shakespeare in Love upset would be fine with me. Seeing smug Speilberg lose (when he clearly believes that he is a/the winner) is great tv.

  82. Though I kind’ve warmed to her…Anne Hathaway seems in danger of overhyping herself and this movie. Can’t say that LesMis is one of my favorite shows. (I’ve seen it on stage and tried watching it on PBS, yet, both times, I got really drowsy.) Early raves of her singing that ‘showstopper,’ expects instant comparisons to Jennifer Hudson in Dreamgirls. After seeing her perform ‘And I’m Telling You I’m Not Going,’ everyone’s immediate reaction is ‘That girl just sealed the win for BSActress!’ If AH’s rendition of ‘I Dreamed a Dream’ doesn’t put goosebumps on the back of audience’s necks…people will be Youtubing Susan Boyle’s surprise rendition and saying ‘her version was better.’
    From there, it’ll be more tiresome talking points of her Raging Bull ‘suffering for her art’ of cutting her hair and eating yeast paste.

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