Lincoln Takes the Lead at Gurus of Gold

Over at Movie City News, David Poland put up a quickie chart for Best Picture. As of now, Dave Karger is still confident Silver Linings Playbook will take home Best Picture. Karger faith + Weinstein Co + sappy crowdpleaser has equaled Best Picture for two years running. Can it win a threepeat? We will have to wait and see. Kris Tapley says that he makes his predictions on “most likely to get a Best Picture nomination,” as opposed to “most likely to win.” Steve Pond figures he might as well predict Zero Dark Thirty to take the whole thing since he believes he has not yet seen anything that CAN win. Other outliers include Susan Wloszczyna, who has Les Miserables at number 1.  Ellwood, Feinberg, Hammond, Poland all have Argo to win.  And EW’s Anthony Breznican has Life of Pi to take the top prize. It feels as though we have a real race this year as opposed to something all locked in. That always makes for a more exciting Oscar season.

Currently over at Gold Derby, Argo is in the number one spot and Lincoln is third, with Les Miserables at number 3.

New Les Miserables Trailer

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Les Miserables Screens in New York, Twitter Declares Hathaway the Winner, Strong Contender to Win BP

31 Comments

  1. helios
    November 23, 2012

    SLP feat. Jennifer Lawrence’s butt isn’t winning best picture. Tell Dave Karger to quit deluding himself.

  2. Jake
    November 23, 2012

    I think Django Unchained has a better chance of making the Bp lineup over Zero Dark Thirty. And has there been any word on Zero Dark Thirty yet?

  3. steve50
    November 23, 2012

    Here we go:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-Sn2ZgfVqM&feature=share&list=PLCD588792A973ADC5

    Watch closely and you can see Bigelow driving a buggy, Hooper waiting to be “released”, Spielberg going great guns, unfortunate tumbles by TDKR, Cloud Atlas, etc.

  4. Jesus Alonso
    November 23, 2012

    LOCKS.

    1. Lincoln
    2. Argo
    3. Les Miserables
    4. Life of Pi
    5. Silver Linings Playbook

    Likely.

    6. Beasts of the southern wild
    7. The Masters.

    Probably, if they pick more than 7…

    8. The Impossible (saw it, way better than you’re hearing and reading… right into the AMPAS alley)
    9. Zero Dark Thirty
    10. Django Unchained

    Longshots.

    11. Moonrise Kingdom
    12. Amour
    13. Flight

    and unless surprise, nothing else, in the mix.

  5. PaulH
    November 23, 2012

    It’s just mind-boggling that Life of Pi is near the top of anything but the Razzie shortlist. It makes little sense and should fall off dramatically in its 2nd weekend. The next Avatar? Nope, the next Avatar comes out in 2015. As for SLP, Harvey’s having major trouble booking this in available art house theaters, per Deadline.

  6. Jesus Alonso
    November 23, 2012

    And to be honest, i see only a few films with the right “stuff” to win.

    Lincoln, Argo and The Impossible.

    If you pressure me hard, I’d narrow it as a likely Lincoln sweep with a margin for The Impossible to surprise, the only film that, on paper, has the right stuff on all levels.

  7. November 23, 2012

    It’s easy to have a race when nothing is decided yet. Come December’s early award shows, this will probably be down to one film already.

  8. November 23, 2012

    It’s not mind-boggling, PaulH. Lots of people like Life of Pi, thus it generates Oscar buzz. If you allow your mind to boggle every time a film you didn’t geek-gasm over garners acclaim, Paul, you’ll do yourself quite a mischief.

    Who actually thought it’d be the next Avatar in box office terms anyway? No-one.

  9. DaneM
    November 23, 2012

    The only thing that boggles my mind regarding Pi is how Breznican has it ranked 1 at this point. There are just too many other heavyweights in Lincoln, Les Mis, Argo and maybe even Zero Dark Thirty. Plus Weinstein’s SLP.

  10. Reno
    November 23, 2012

    Word is out, Les Miz is magnificent. Are we ready for another ‘French’ film winning Oscar BP?

  11. Freddy Ardanza
    November 23, 2012

    Good comments on twitter for Les Miz:

    Clayton Davis ‏@AwardsCircuit

    Hugh Jackman delivers his career best work. Samantha Barks is the breakout star and Eddie “sings like an angel” Redmayne OMG!!! #LesMiz

  12. DaneM
    November 23, 2012

    He also says Argo and Lincoln had better get their “Oscar [boxing] gloves out”

  13. Ernstdante
    November 23, 2012

    If Les Miz is good, it’ll roll over everything come Oscar time. It’s got the big stars, big production values, singing in an established musical, period piece, epic story and emotions, more Oscar bait than anything else out there–it’s all a matter of execution.

  14. F.
    November 23, 2012

    From Showbiz411:

    “Cheers and a standing ovation this afternoon at the first screening of the film version of Les Miserables. Tom Hooper, Oscar winner for The King’s Speech, has made a thrilling, sensational epic of the legendary Broadway show. This now becomes the Titanic of this year’s awards season, the film to beat. Hugh Jackman is a triumph as Jean Valjean, Anne Hathaway sings the heck out of the film’s big numbers, and Samantha Barks just about steals the film.”

  15. November 23, 2012

    Dave Karger just tweeted about Jackman’s chances and commented on the quality of his singing. I’m glad I’m not the only one who thinks singing ability counts for something.

  16. TOM
    November 23, 2012

    In my opinion, Dave Krager is just a Weinstein Company stooge. I still can’t stomach the article in which he lauded to ‘Give The Reader and Kate Winslet a second-look.’ :(
    Of course, you know TWC pushed that muck…

  17. Reno
    November 23, 2012

    Looks like we’re going to have a Lincoln-Les Miz title bout! Exciting!

  18. Bob Burns
    November 23, 2012

    I will be astonished if Lincoln doesn’t sweep.

    Anecdotal…..at my viewing in Alabama the audience gave it a rousing applause. To begin with audiences here never applaud – and they applauded a film celebrating Yankees – these are people who still sing Dixie.

    This is a film the Academy will want to associate themselves with…. as will many precursors.

  19. Eric
    November 23, 2012

    Unrelated: NY Times article on Zero Dark Thirty. It’s a good read, mild spoilers re: Chastain’s character. We get a runtime in the article as well

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/24/movies/zero-dark-thirty-by-kathryn-bigelow-focuses-on-facts.html?&pagewanted=all

  20. Reno
    November 23, 2012

    The very first screening of Les Miserables, with Tom Hooper and some stars in attendance, was at the LINCOLN center in NYC. Way to go to start the rivalry!

  21. steve50
    November 23, 2012

    ^ That’s because there was a Black Friday Holiday Craft Fair at the Les Miserables Arena in Soho.

  22. Princess of Peace
    November 23, 2012

    I am glad that there is no clear frontrunner yet. It makes the race more fun and exciting. I saw Pi today and loved it. But Silver Linings is way overrated and in my opinion does not deserve a nomination.

  23. d2
    November 23, 2012

    oh god please don’t let it be Lincoln…bored the snot out of me. the acting was decet by Pace and DDL, but everyone else were atrocious. the pacing was painfully slow and the story, while very important and a good read, was a snoozefest. First, the king’s speech. Then The Artist. Now Lincoln…is the whole point to pick worse and worse choices?

  24. rufussondheim
    November 23, 2012

    Just for fun, my current top 10 for the year (in order)…

    The Perks of Being a Wallflower
    Take This Waltz
    Life of Pi
    Argo
    Skyfall
    Looper
    Flight
    Cloud Atlas
    The Hunger Games
    The Master

  25. PaulH
    November 23, 2012

    “Are we ready for another ‘French’ film winning Oscar BP?”

    Fuck, no. It’s bad enough we may have 2 French actresses in best lead actress (Cotillard, Riva). Fuckety fuck, no, enough with the French.

  26. E
    November 23, 2012

    @PaulH. Huh. Did you not find Cotillard and Riva to be excellent in their respective films?

  27. Craig Z
    November 23, 2012

    E, don’t bother with Paul H. He as seen neither film and is just a xenophobe.

  28. PaulH
    November 23, 2012

    Wrong, Craig; there are 5 nominees that in an ideal world should make the cut that come from english-language films:

    Lawrence (THG)
    Hathaway (TDKR)
    Knightley
    Chastain
    Watts

    In an ideal world.

  29. November 23, 2012

    I should hope The King’s Speech railing continues against Les Mis, for continuity’s sake.

  30. Craig Z
    November 24, 2012

    Yes Paul that is xenophobia. You haven’t even seen Chastain or Watts but you figure they are ideal? Why? Cause they speak English?

    What the hell is wrong with you?

  31. November 24, 2012

    So I saw LINCOLN….

    A) You guys know I hate politics B) I stink at history. So for like the first half of the movie I didn’t know what the hell was going on. I also thought I was getting that ARGO disease I had where I couldn’t pay attention and I was going to blame the walls in that theater but then I realized I was able to follow all of the characters except Lincoln. I think it was the flowery way he talks, not DDL’s voice choice. That didn’t bother me. Anyhoo, I caught on eventually and it was a good movie. But I pretty much knew going in it wasn’t going to be one of my favorites. I really don’t have anything to pick at except for the ending, which I thought was going to end when he walked away which would have been perfect. But then the weird thing with the kid, IDEK. So that’s the nitpick. Otherwise, I won’t go on a rampage if it wins I just won’t be rooting for it. I also think it will be interesting to see DDL win, which he deserves, but it’ll be in a movie that almost got completely stolen from him by Tommy Lee Jones. The man was practically co-lead. He didn’t even really “act” like a different person than he is in every other movie. He’s just that lovable.

    Oh, the theater was as full as it ever gets, with oldies of course. During the previews they got whispery about LES MIS and were beside themselves when the trailer for PARENTAL GUIDANCE came on. Just sayin’. Anyhoo, they clapped at the end of LINCOLN which almost never happens.

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