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The New York Film Critics Preview and Predictions, 2012

It’s hard to believe a whole year has flown by that we were all studiously predicting The Tree of Life and Hugo to win Best Picture at the New York Film Critics only to then see that award go to The Artist. They aren’t as off base with Oscar as you might think. For instance, our trusty Nate Silver Oscar wonk, Marshall Flores has compiled nominees chart that says if you win the New York Film Critics you have a 90% chance of getting of nominated for the Best Picture Oscar. 90% if you win Best Actor, and 90% if you win animated feature.  Winning both, the percentage drops to 40%. Best Actor has a slightly better percentage, 42%.

ENTER OUR PREDICTIONS CONTEST!

To see how the winners have matched up with Oscar check out our handy dandy chart at the bottom of this post, which also features Los Angeles. Last year LA went a different way than the entire universe and chose The Descendants. But Oscar, well, he went with the status quo on down the line.

You can see that LA and NY can agree and still Oscar might go a different way but if you had to pick between the two groups, New York has a better batting average than Oscar, which means, their taste is far more aligned with the steak eaters than they probably care to admit.  Well, it’s either that or they have greater influence, you know, the whole “New York is smarter than Los Angeles” mentality.  Either way, we will be finding out on Monday morning what they pick for Best Film.  Their awards will trickle down beginning at 7am LA time.  They vote and announce, vote and announce.

You can follow us, @awardsdaily or @filmystic, for all of the breaking news.

Now on to the predictions.  Last year I ended up going with Hugo, changing my predictions from Tree of Life at the last minute. It didn’t matter because the NYFCC picked The Artist.   They usually go for the best reviewed film of the year, though not always. Let’s take a quick look at the Metacritic scores for their recent winners going back five years:

2011: The Artist – 89
2010: The Social Network – 95
2009-The Hurt Locker-94
2008-Milk 84


2007-No Country for Old Men -91
2006-United 93 – 90
2005-Brokeback Mountain-87

The lowest score was for Milk at 84. It’s still kind of a marvel that it won but it was up against Slumdog Millionaire and hell would have to freeze over before the NYFCC was going to pick Slumdog Millionaire. Still, you have to figure, whatever they pick it probably isn’t going to be below their lowest scoring film. It’s possible, of course, that they will pick something divisive that has love it/hate it reviews. It’s also possible that they will pick something that hasn’t been widely reviewed yet, like Les Miserables, Django Unchained or The Hobbit. What? Could happen!

But of the films that has been released what have been the best reviewed, above at least 84, that are in the Oscar conversation (it’s rare that they pick something totally out of the blue – Topsy-Turvy was the last time they did that back in 1999). Sadly, the state of film criticism now, really since The Social Network, has made it so that no movie ever seems to be able to top a score 90 anymore. Used to happen with frequency.

86
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Lincoln
The Master

84
Moonrise Kingdom
Looper

81
Silver Linings Playbook
The Sessions

78
Life of Pi

76
Flight

Is it any wonder studios hold movies from critics before the awards start being handed out?  2012 has been one of the best years for films in a long while but you’d never know it by the scores you see on Metacritic (and Rotten Tomatoes is far too unreliable).

To that end, I have to wonder if it isn’t down to the highest rated films in the bunch. Since I know many of these critics I know what movies they liked and didn’t like. you could take each one of them and score the reviews they had for each movie but I think that’s overkill.  I’ll just go with the overall score and leave it at that.

Predictions:
Best Film: Lincoln (alternate: Silver Linings Playbook)
Best Director: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln (alternate: Kathryn Bigelow)
Screenplay: Lincoln
Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables (Or Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings)
Supporting Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Cinematography: The Master
Documentary: The Queen of Versailles
Foreign: Amour

How about you?

The Chart

LAFCA | New York Film Critics | Oscar – Best Picture

*Also nominated for best picture

2010 The Descendants The Artist The Artist
2010 The Social Network* The Social Network* The King’s Speech
2009 The Hurt Locker The Hurt Locker The Hurt Locker
2008 Wall-E Milk* Slumdog Millionaire
2007 There Will Be Blood* No Country for Old Men+ No Country
2006 Letters from Iwo Jima* United 93  The Departed
2005 Brokeback Mountain* Brokeback Mountain* Crash
2004 Sideways* Sideways* Million Dollar Baby
2003 American Splendour Return of the King Return of the King
2002 About Schmidt Far From Heaven Chicago
2001 In the Bedroom* Mulholland Drive A Beautiful Mind
2000 Crouching Tiger* Traffic* Gladiator
1999 The Insider* Topsy-Turvy American Beauty
1998 Saving Private Ryan* Saving Private Ryan* Shakespeare in Love
1997 L.A. Confidential* L.A. Confidential* Titanic
1996 Secrets & Lies* Fargo* The English Patient
1995 Leaving Las Vegas Leaving Las Vegas Braveheart
1994 Pulp Fiction* Quiz Show* Forrest Gump
1993 Schindler’s List+ Schindler’s List+ Schindler’s List
1992 Unforgiven+ The Player Unforgiven
1991 Bugsy* The Silence of the Lambs+ Silence of the Lambs
1990 Goodfellas* Goodfellas* Dances With Wolves
1989 Do the Right Thing My Left Foot* Driving Miss Daisy
1988 Little Dorrit The Accidental Tourist* Rain Man
1987 Hope and Glory* Broadcast News* The Last Emperor
1986 Hannah and Her Sisters* Hannah and Her Sisters* Platoon
1985 Brazil Prizzi’s Honor* Out of Africa
1984 Amadeus+ Passage to India* Amadeus
1983 Terms of Endearment+ Terms of Endearment+ Terms of Endearment
1982 E.T.* Gandhi+ Gandhi
1981 Atlantic City* Reds* Chariots of Fire
1980 Raging Bull* Ordinary People+ Ordinary People
1979 Kramer Vs. Kramer+ Kramer Vs. Kramer+ Kramer Vs. Kramer
1978 Coming Home* The Deer Hunter+ The Deer Hunter
1977 Star Wars* Annie Hall+ Annie Hall
1976 Network* All the President’s Men* Rocky
1975 Dog Day Afternoon* Nashville* One Flew Over/Cukoo’s Nest
1974 Armacord Godfather II
1973 La Nuit Américaine The Sting
1972 Viskningar och rop The Godfather
1971 A Clockwork Orange* The French Connection
1970 Five Easy Pieces* Patton
1969 Z* Midnight Cowboy
1968 Lion in Winter* Oliver
1967 In the Heat of the Night+ In the Heat of the Night
1966 A Man for All Seasons* A Man for all Seasons
1965 Darling* the Sound of Music
1964 My Fair Lady+ My Fair Lady
1963 Tom Jones+ Tom Jones
1962 none Lawrence of Arabia
1961 West Side Story+ West Side Story
1960 The Apartment+ Billy Wilder, The Apartment
1959 Ben Hur+ Ben Hur
1958 THe Defiant Ones* Gigi
1957 Bridge on the River Kwai+ Bridge on the River Kwai
1956 Around the World in 80 Days+ Around/World in 80 Days
1955 Marty+ Delbert Mann, Marty
1954 On the Waterfront+ Elia Kazan, On the Waterfront
1953 From Here to Eternity+ From Here to Eternity
1952 High Noon* The Greatest Show on Earth
1951 Streetcar Named Desire* An American in Paris
1950 All About Eve+ All About Eve

Thelma Adams, US Weekly
John Anderson, Newsday
Melissa Anderson, Time Out New York
David Ansen, Newsweek
Dwight Brown, NNPA & UPSCALE
Richard Corliss, Time
Mike D’Angelo, Esquire Magazine
David Denby, New Yorker
Karen Durbin, Elle Magazine
David Edelstein, New York Magazine
David Fear, Time Out New York
Marshall Fine, Star Magazine
Owen Gleiberman, Entertainment Weekly
J. Hoberman, Village Voice
Andre O’Hehir, Salon
Stuart Klawans, The Nation
Lou Lumenick, New York Post
Joe Morgenstern, Wall Street Journal
Vincent Musetto, New York Post
Peter Rainer, Christian Science Monitor
Rex Reed, New York Observer
Joshua Rothkopf, Time Out New York
Leah Rozen, People Magazine
Andrew Sarris, New York Observer
Richard Schickel, Time
Lisa Schwarzbaum, Entertainment Weekly
Kyle Smith, New York Post
Steve Snyder, New York Sun
Dana Stevens, Slate.com
Peter Travers, Rolling Stone
Elizabeth Weitzman, New York Daily News
Armond White, NY Press
Stephen Whitty, Newhouse Newspapers
Stephanie Zacharek, Salon.com

71 Comments on this Post

  1. christiannnw

    I would fall over dead if Jennifer Lawrence manages to win Best Actress from a (perceived to be) prestigious group as the NYFCC. Granted, she fleshes out Tiffany beyond the constraints placed upon her by the film’s script, creating a woman who turns to empty sex as a distraction from her desire for a richer romantic relationship. But she’s ultimately a supporting character, as her character has no real bearing on the plot of Silver Linings Playbook and only exists to serve Bradley Cooper’s character.

    However, I would love if the NYFCC awarded Lawrence with a Supporting Actress citation instead.

  2. christiannw

    *should’ve put this in the above post

    The rest of your predictions are excellent choices.

  3. Thanks, Sasha. Love when you do these analyses of past results.

  4. They’ve added 2 more critics to that list, I think. I know for sure that Keith Uhlich has joined.

  5. Thanks for posting the list, Sasha. I didn’t know there were so many people in the voting process (and didn’t know folks like Travers, for instance, were part of the group).

  6. Amour’s metacritic rating is 91 at the moment, so I’m guessing Riva – not Lawrence – for best actress because it would be the only bone they can throw at it. If they hadn’t split film and foreign language film several years ago, it would be Amour’s to lose; as it sits now – Lincoln.

    BUT – they were so downright mainstream last year (Rex Reed must have pixie-dusted the petit fours just before the wheels came off during the major categories), nothing would surprise me.

  7. Actually, Tiffany plays an active role in getting Pat to fall in love with her. She actually took the reigns. Pat thought he was all action, but Tiffany was steering the boat. And the dance competition was her thing. She’s not supporting at all. Jacki Weaver is a supporting actress in Silver Linings Playbook.

  8. Robert A.

    I’m going to guess either Lincoln or Argo takes Best Picture, mostly because I don’t know what else to guess. Beasts will probably win First Feature, and The Master is likely too weird to arrive at a consensus. Hard to say how ZD30 will play into all of this. I doubt Les Mis, Django or any of the other late releases are going to have enough of an impact on the NY crits.

    Not sure what to say with director. Spielberg has never won a NYFC Best Director prize, even in the years when his film (Schindler’s, SPR) won Best Film. Will this year break the pattern?

    DDL is the most likely Best Actor winner, followed by Phoenix. I’d be surprised if anyone other than one of those two won.

  9. Marion Cotillard for “Rust and Bone” could score here. Or maybe Jessica Chastain(NY actress on Bway now, albeit in a bomb)but they are NOT awarding Jennifer Lawrence here.

    Women aren’t cra-zee about J-Law’s character. And alllll these ladies are feminists and there are a lot of them.

    After the exstatic reaction to “Les Mis” here on Thursday…don’t be surprised if it sweeps.

  10. rufussondheim

    I am predicting Beasts of the Southern Wild simply because it has the most 100’s on Metacritic. By far. You think that should count for something.

  11. I entered the contest, it was tough to pick winners for all 3 awards especially with my Argo and Lincoln tie…ugh why did they both have to be so great…I just can’t decide between them.

  12. Robert A.

    “I am predicting Beasts of the Southern Wild simply because it has the most 100′s on Metacritic. By far. You think that should count for something.”

    I wondered the same thing, Rufus. Their past behavior, though, seems to be to award a film like Beasts as Best First Feature so they can award a splashier/”main attraction”-y movie as Best Film. Got to get some of those stars to show up at the awards gala, after all!

    Would love it, though, if their admiration of Beasts propelled Wallis to win the Best Actress prize. I highly doubt that will happen, but it would be funny.

  13. Profile photo of Sasha Stone

    There are several of them who loved Silver Linings, like Joe Morgenstern, for instance. Even though it has a low MC score I could see it doing well there.

  14. How can New York turn down the temption to vote for the hunt to kill Bin Laden? So I will say Zero Dark Thirty.

  15. danemychal

    Do you think Les Mis will factor in at all? They can’t review it yet, right? So there isn’t really any way to know how much they liked it.

    Also, Sasha, for your prediction — did you look at what all these critics rated Lincoln vs. the other big contenders or is it just an educated guess/hope?

  16. Best Film: Lincoln (alternate: Argo)
    Best Director: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln (alternate: Ben Affleck)
    Screenplay: Lincoln
    Actress: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
    Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
    Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
    Supporting Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
    Cinematography: The Master
    Foreign: Amour

  17. I’m interested, Sasha, why you think less films can get above a 90 now. Is it a culture of backlash in film criticism? Is it possible that the movies that have come out in the past two years simply aren’t as good? For me, there have been some real revelations this year, but it seems like a pretty weak slate. I look at those 86’s and think that I loved Argo, but it felt very, very good but not exceptional (the stuff with the main character’s son was a bit ham-handed). Beasts of the Southern Wild was a stunning debut, but the last 20 minutes didn’t hold together as tightly as I hoped. Lincoln is an incredibly strong, but not particularly revelatory movie and, frankly, it felt a touch self-congratulatory and occasionally anachronistic. I’m not saying ANY of these are less than wonderful, but are any of them truly great? The only movie I saw this year that felt like it was GREAT was The Master, and that one was bound to have dissenters.

    I mean this in a sincere way: I wonder if it might have less to do with the state of film criticism as you say than it might just have to do with the films themselves.

    Lord knows I’m hoping for some more truly great this year. I can’t wait for Django, Zero Dark Thirty, Amour, and Les Mis.

  18. Well, Andrew Sarris is dead, so he certainly won’t be voting.

  19. Wish I had waited a day or two before sending it in. I am hoping SLP and ZD30 show strong but I predicted Argo and Lincoln to take BP and BD. But I like that the critics have a chance to get more hype for SLP. This with Spirit Awards and maybe a theater expansion bringing in more box office, and the buzz will be able to compete with Lincoln and Les Mis.

  20. unlikely hood

    We know that they’ve seen Django and Hobbit? Really?

  21. “steve50 / November 28, 2012

    Amour’s metacritic rating is 91 at the moment, so I’m guessing Riva – not Lawrence – for best actress because it would be the only bone they can throw at it. If they hadn’t split film and foreign language film several years ago, it would be Amour’s to lose; as it sits now – Lincoln.”

    What is this about? Have they made the rules so that a foreign language film cannot win Best Picture at NY anymore?

  22. rufussondheim

    Jim, I’m starting to agree with you the more I see the Big Guns that everyone is raving about. Three are very good to almost great (Pi, Argo, Lincoln) but I can’t say they are truly great even as a first impression (I can only say that about Perks at this point.) The Master was acceptable (with a high chance I will enjoy it more when I see it again. And Silver Linings is irredeemable. I’ve yet to see the Big 2 from the summer (Moonrise and Beasts) and any of the unreleased ones.

    In other words, I’m still waiting for the film that will be in contention for the Oscar that I can get behind without reservation. Zero Dark Thirty is my best hope, but, frankly, there are at least 7 major films I’m excited to see that could conceivably enter the Best Pic race, so I’m not done yet.

    As for metacritic not handing out high scores, I think the most likely culprit isn’t the movies themselves but the way metacritic scores them. Maybe they’ve recalibrated their system so that scores wouldn’t be so high.

  23. @red_wine
    Since 1978, they’ve had a sep. category for FLF. Since that time, no FLF has taken BP with the NYFCC, whereas it was frequent before that (which is probably why they split it – gotta try an’ impact Oscar, get some cred with the great unwashed, etc, y’know). I don’t know that there is a rule against it, but it’s an easy out. Like someone said earlier Melancholia was 2nd last year (?) – I haven’t checked.

  24. Jim >> “The only movie I saw this year that felt like it was GREAT was The Master, and that one was bound to have dissenters.”

    My sentiments also, regarding films which have a shot at a BP nod. I also thought Holy Motors was great, but it won’t be showing up on the Gold Derby anytime soon.

  25. Correction: It wasn’t that frequent after all, but from 1970 to 75, 4 of the 6 BPs were foreign lang (Day For Night, Cries and Whispers, Z, Amarcord – not in that order). ’78 – new category (actually brought it back from a lot earllier).

    Maybe all those subtitled masterworks freaked somebody out – who knows.

  26. @steve50
    They just re-instated the category in 1978, they had it before but had briefly removed it.

    And having such a category does not indicate a reluctance to award foreign films in the top category, infact it indicates a concern that foreign language films are not winning often enough and we need to have a separate category to recognize them.

    Look at NSFC. They have rewarded so many foreign films in BP inspite of having a BFLF. And I checked, Talk To Her, Crouching Tiger have been runner-ups in BP at the NY in the new century.

    So foreign language films do have a chance to win BP in NY, its just that they never get enough votes.

  27. Best Film: Silver Linings Playbook
    Best Director: Ang Lee, Life of Pi
    Screenplay: Lincoln
    Actress: Michelle Williams, Take This Waltz
    Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
    Supporting Actress:Amy Adams, The Master
    Supporting Actor: Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook
    Cinematography: The Master
    Foreign: Amour

  28. “So foreign language films do have a chance to win BP in NY, its just that they never get enough votes.”

    You’re probably right, red_wine. Depends on how they choose to apply it, I guess. I always thought it an odd coincidence that it was reinstated after a strong run of FLF.

  29. The main awards will probably go to the top players, but wouldn’t it be great to see an underestimated risktaker to emerge like Life of Pi The Master, Cloud Atlas, Anna Karenina, Amour, The Dark Knight Rises, The Impossible, Django Unchained ?

    This is the critics’ groups – phase so I am expecting them to A. spread the love B. consider brilliant achievements the mainstream might overlook.

    BEST PICTURE – Les Miserables
    BEST DIRECTOR – Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
    BEST ACTRESS – Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
    BEST ACTOR – Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS – Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR – Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
    BEST SCREENPLAY – Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master)
    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY – Janusz Kaminski (Lincoln)
    BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM – Amour

    What should be emphasized that they often go with the ‘veteran’ in the Best Actress category, so it could be someone semi-unexpected from the Riva/Mirren/Smith trio AND they seem to prefer original screenplays (they awarded ‘The Kids Are All Right’ in ‘The Social Network’-year, if my memory serves me well this was the ONLY award Sorkin didn’t win.)

    P.S. Wishful thinking : Keira Knightley surprises in Best Actress. I can see how the film and the performance can be insanely divisive, textbook love/hate experience, but I firmly believe nailing one of the most iconic, complex and difficult female roles ever written, should garner awards for the actress who was brave enough to take it on and devoted enough to pull it off (clearly the second part is up for debate). I love Chastain, but I’m sure she will be in the top5 without a second consecutive NYFCC award, Knightley on the other hand needs strong precursors to stay in the conversation. I think she paid her dues for a second nomination, she had delivered several critically acclaimed performances since Pride & Prejudice, in my opinion she was magnetic in ‘Atonement’, a powerhouse in ‘The Duchess’ devastatingly heartbreaking in ‘Never let me go’ and remarkably devoted (yet misunderstood by many ignorant laics) in ‘A Dangerous Method’. Hopefully The New York Times rave review will count for something here.

  30. You know, I think they’re going to go with Amour or The Master. They’ll honor an auteur, but probably not Spielberg.
    I live in Aus, so I’m probably way off.

  31. Bball_Jake

    Early word on The Hobbit is reallyyy good! Im so pumped for it, Martin Freeman even said its better than LOTR!
    For best picture nyc I predict Les Miserables.
    NGNG: The Dark Knight Rises or The Hobbit
    Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence Silver Linings Playbook
    Best Actor: Daniel Day Lewis
    Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway
    Supp. Actor: Tommy Lee Jones Lincoln

  32. Is Mary Elizabeth Winstead out of the running? I thought she was great in Smashed.

  33. Reading the few reviews on Rotten Tomatoes for Zero Dark Thirty makes it sound like the critic’s pick for Best Pic.

  34. love the charts!

    I’m gonna predict that if they see the hobbit and love it in its pre screenings, they might just pick it cause it’s fresh in their heads.

    THE HOBBIT!

  35. Wow. If these are the critics voting then Jennifer Lawrence is totally winning for best actress since Peter Travers from Rolling Stone, Time, New York Magazine, Entertainment Weekly, Elle, and other top critics have been campaigning hard for her to win an Oscar.

  36. Predictions

    Best picture- Les Miserables
    Best director- Ben Affleck
    Best actor- Daniel Day Lewis
    Best actress- Jennifer Lawrence
    Best supporting actress- Anne Hathaway
    Best supporting actor- Alan Arkin

  37. Best Picture: Les Miserables
    Best Director: Tom Hooper, Les Miserables (his first NYFCC award)
    Best Actor: Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln
    Best Actress: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
    Best Supporting Actor: Bryan Cranston, Argo (NGNG)
    Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
    Best Screenplay: Lincoln
    Best Foreign Film: Pieta (from Korea)
    Best Documentary: West of Memphis

    I’m predicting Les Miz to win coz Thelma Adams already declared that it won’t.
    I’m oppositional-defiant!

  38. I’m predicting ‘Argo’ scores big here and regain some thunder from ‘Lincoln’ and ‘Les Miserables’. The NYFCC is usually not a fan well polish films, so I’m guessing ‘Lincoln’ would fare better at NBR (where I’m expecting it to win) and don’t think ‘Les Miserables’ has been screened enough to gain much traction here.

    Then again, a complete curve ball for ‘Beasts of the Southern Wild’ is just dark enough for these guys.

  39. Best Cinematography: Life of Pi

  40. Best Film- Argo
    Best Director- Ben Affleck
    Best Screenplay-Lincoln
    Best Adapted Screenplay- Les Miserables
    Best Actor- Daniel Day Lewis
    Best Actress- Jennifer Lawrence
    Best Supporting Actress- Anne Hathaway
    Best Cinematography- Life of Pi

  41. BedBath&Beyonce

    I have a hunch Zero Dark Thirty is right up their alley.

  42. I think Lincoln is going to end up winning best picture because it’s an all American film that screams American patiotism. However, I think Ben Affleck will end up taking the best director award and best actor and actress are a given. Daniel Day Lewis and Jennifer Lawrence are taking home those awards. I get that Zero Dark Thirty got a lot of praise but where’s the BUZZ? I don’t see it winning any major awards.

  43. BEST PICTURE
    NYFCC – Lincoln
    LAFCA – Argo
    NBR – Life of Pi

    BEST DIRECTOR
    NYFCC – Steven Spielberg
    LAFCA – Ben Affleck
    NBR – Ben Affleck

    BEST ACTOR
    NYFCC – Daniel Day-Lewis
    LAFCA – Daniel Day-Lewis
    NBR – Hugh Jackman

    BEST ACTRESS
    NYFCC – Naomi Watts
    LAFCA – Emmanuelle Riva
    NBR – Jennifer Lawrence

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
    NYFCC – Tommy Lee Jones
    LAFCA – Tommy Lee Jones
    NBR – Ewan McGregor

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
    NYFCC – Sally Field
    LAFCA – Anne Hathaway
    NBR – Anne Hathaway

    BEST SCREENPLAY
    NYFCC – Lincoln
    LAFCA – Argo
    NBR – Lincoln

  44. I have this funny feeling that Lincoln is going to win a lot of awards. Its main competition is Les Miserables. The rest of the categories are predictable. Daniel Day Lewis, Jennifer Lawrence, Tommy Lee Jones and Anne Hathaway are going to sweep.

  45. SeattleMoviegoer

    i’ve always admired the NYFCC. they don’t always go for the highbrow choice. they even voted AROUND THE WORLD IN 80 DAYS (the all time snob trap for film writers nowadays) and BEN HUR for best picture. i heartily agreed with their choice of UNITED 93 over THE DEPARTED, yet am still scratching my head over the best actress selection of Cameron Diaz for “There’s Something About Mary.” I’m anxious to hear what they choose…

  46. Nicole Kidman, Best Supporting Actress for The Paperboy. NGNG.

  47. why not Michael Haneke as best director?

  48. No PLEASE, Jennifer lawrence NO, she is the most unbearable and overrated actress of the last years

  49. I thought it was established that the critic’s aren’t too fond of Spielberg, particularly NY who overlooked him for best director in both 1993 and 1998. However, I still think Lincoln could get Best Picture.

    Actor: Denzel Washington, Flight
    Actress: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
    Supporting Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
    Supporting Actress: Helen Hunt, The Sessions
    Director: Ang Lee, Life of Pi
    Picture: Lincoln

  50. Rex Reed must have pixie-dusted the petit fours just before the wheels came off during the major categories

    LMAO! Yeah, they posit themselves as credible barometers of quality and independent of the Oscar race, yet their choices so often lick Oscar’s arse clean and dry. I’ll always have a soft spot for the NYFCC after they were the only major critic group to award Heath Ledger for Brokeback Mountain, but other left-field selections they’ve previously made (The Kids Are All Right winning actress and screenplay for example) have been so transparent.

    I have a feeling about Argo with NYFCC. But I have another feeling that Argo will follow a similar path to The Descendants’ last year, and miss out on most of the major groups’ top awards.

  51. Oh, Jesus, Ringer invasion has already begun. All those mindless Jacksonites from 2001-2004 are beginning to swarm Oscar blogs and sites pimping their candidate without any regard for reality. Yeah, sure, The Hobbit is so going to suddenly steal all awards from movies that have been building buzz for so long (Lincoln, Argo, SLP) or are getting raves sight recently fresh-in-the-memory seen (ZDT, Les Miserables)…not. This is going to be loooong 3 years with those lunatics back. Looooong.

  52. I can’t see anyone other than Phoenix winning Best Actor at NYFCC, they absolutely go for showy performances like his over the more subtle turns like DDL in Lincoln.

  53. steandric

    BEST PICTURE – Life of Pi
    BEST DIRECTOR – Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
    BEST ACTRESS – Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
    BEST ACTOR – Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS – Helen Hunt, The Sessions
    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR – Ewan Mcgregor (The Impossible)
    BEST SCREENPLAY – The Impossible
    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY – Life of Pi
    BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM – Amour

  54. I don’t think Lawrence stands a chance in NY. I think that Amour with a score of 91 will bring the Best Actress Award to Riva and if not her then it will be Chastain.

    The only real surprise might be Spader in Supporting for Lincoln. His is the kind of performance that even overshadowed a bit by Jones still is quite noticable by critics and the kind of lack of support that the critics in NY love to say they “found”. I’m really holding out for Field in the Best Supporting Actress category. Here’s the difference in my opinion between Field and Hathaway. Hathaway has the advantage because she has a song which underscores the emotion she brings to the screen. Field doesn’t have that “extra” she has to bring it without having a song to provide her with motivation.

    Otherwise not a lot in those predictions to argue about.

  55. MovieFan

    It would be great if Phoenix scored at least this one important award for his phenomenal performance, but I think it will be a DDL-sweep all the way…unless critics groups go apeshit over Les Miserables, but they rarely go for ‘tentpoles’. Clearly a lot will depend on reviews and BO, but if Jackman’s film hits all the right notes, I firmly believe he will be the only real threat for Daniel Day-Lewis in the long run.

  56. Can someone please remind me why the NY Times critics don’t participate? Is it something to do with Janet Maslin’s meltdown when NYFC picked The Accidental Tourist (which was a MUCH better film than Rain Man). Especially noticeable since a hack like Rex Reed is a voter! His ridiculous review of Lincoln is just the latest in his absurd history of so-called film criticism.

    Going through the chart above I was struck by how often the NYFC gets it right, compared to LA and the Oscars.

  57. phantom

    I think Phoenix will win NY award for Best actor, they do usually for performances like his in this movie. Neither Washington or DDL have gotten the praise Phoenix has from the critics.

  58. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    Can someone please remind me why the NY Times critics don’t participate?

    Probably some misguided attempt by NYTimes editorial board to require their journalist to remain above the fray.

    When you think about it in simplest terms, Critics Awards are when reporters moonlight, trying to make news. Instead of doing their day-job: reporting the news.

  59. Scott (the other one)

    I don’t see the NYFC going for the somewhat ponderous and middlebrow Lincoln, or the TV movie-ish Silver Linings, for Best Picture. I’d predict Amour or Beasts of the Southern Wild.

    Also agree with others that Pheonix seems the front runner for Actor — they will like the intense, Brando quality of his performance, and also his dissing of the Oscars.

    Picture: Beasts of the Southern Wild
    Director: Haneke — Amour
    Actor: Phoenix — The Master
    Actress: Emanuelle Riva — Amour
    S. Actor: Dwight Henry — Beasts of the SW

  60. knee_play

    what i don’t get is how they’re announcing so early. have they all had the chance to see “zero dark thirty” and “les miserables” yet? what about “the hobbit” and “django unchained”? no one has seen those yet, right?

    regardless, my predictions:
    picture: zero dark thirty (alt: argo)
    director: kathryn bigelow (alt: steven spielberg)
    actor: joaquin phoenix (alt: daniel day-lewis)
    actress: emmanuelle riva (alt: marion cotillard)
    supporting actor: philip seymour hoffman (alt: tommy lee jones)
    supporting actress: anne hathaway (alt: amy adams)
    screenplay: lincoln (alt: life of pi)
    foreign film: amour (alt: the intouchable)

  61. I’m going out on a limb with a few of these. Critics are, I think, harder to predict than the Oscar voters, generally speaking.

    Best Film: Les Miserables

    Best Director: Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom

    Screenplay: Argo

    Actress: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour (alternate, Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty)

    Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln (alternate, John Hawkes – The Sessions)

    Supporting Actress: Helen Hunt, The Sessions (alternate, Maggie Smith – The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)

    Supporting Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

    Cinematography: The Life of Pi

    Foreign: Amour

  62. chasgoose

    I think one of LAFCA/NYFCC are going to pick Moonrise Kingdom as their Best Picture. The Master faction in both is going to distort things, essentially it won’t have enough support to win, but its supporters aren’t going to switch over to an Argo/Les Miz/Silver Linings Playbook. Moonrise Kingdom is inoffensive enough to the more mainstream people (I think it was Anderson’s most easily digestible film aside from Fantastic Mr. Fox) and still exciting enough to woo the cinephiles from The Master faction. I could be wrong here since I think all award prognosticators are underestimating Moonrise Kingdom (not my favorite movie of the year, but if Wes Anderson can’t get a nomination for that, what will he get one for?) but I think it could happen.

  63. My predictions:
    Best Picture: Lincoln (alt. Moonrise Kingdom)
    Best Director: Wes Anderson (alt. Steven Spielberg)
    Best Actor: Daniel-Day Lewis (alt. Hugh Jackman)
    Best Actress: Emmanuelle Riva (that’s probably my wishful thinking)(alt. Jennifer Lawrence)
    (this is probably the scenario: winner, Jennifer Lawrence, alt. Jessica Chastain)
    Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway (alt. Helen Hunt)
    Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones (alt. Philip Seymour Hoffman)
    Best Cinematography: The Life of Pi (alt. Lincoln)
    Best Foreign: Amour (alt. Holy Motors)

    Best Screenplay: Lincoln (alt. Moonrise Kingdom)

  64. @rufussondheim

    I totally agree with you. We have three very good movies, bu I am yet to be wowed by this season.
    Nevertheless:
    Best Picture: Zero Dark Thirty
    Best Director: Steven Spielberg
    Best Actor: Daniel-Day Lewis
    Best Actress: Emmanuelle Riva or Jessica Chastain
    Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway
    Best Supporting Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman
    Best Cinematography: The Life of Pi
    Best Foreign: Amour
    Best Screenplay: Lincoln

  65. Dan Conley

    I can’t fathom Silver Linings Playbook winning unless, like the year The Accidental Tourist won, there’s a major schism among the voters and it slips through as a compromise choice. Have they ever voted for a musical? Can’t see Les Miz winning either. New Yorkers have had enough of Les Mis for, oh, 20 years now.

    Maybe it’s my art house Tree of Life bias showing, but I still think The Master is going to win this one. Maybe it wins nothing else, but I think it’s a good fit for the NYFCC.

  66. Best Picture: Lincoln or Silver Linings Playbook
    Best Director: Ben Affleck
    Best Actor: Daniel-Day Lewis or Joaquin Phoenix
    Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence or Marion Cotillard
    Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway or Helen Hunt
    Best Supporting Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman or Rober Deniro
    Best Cinematography: Les Miserables
    Best Foreign: Amour or Rust and Bone
    Best Screenplay: Lincoln or Argo

  67. Best Picture: Lincoln (alt: The Master)
    Best Director: Ben Affleck (alt: P.T.A)
    Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix
    Best Actress: Marion Cotillard
    Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway (alt: Sally Field)
    Best Supporting Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman (alt: Rober DeNiro)
    Best Cinematography: Les Miserables
    Best Foreign: Rust and Bone
    Best Screenplay: Argo

  68. Argo seems to be the most likely to win best picture at this point, IMO and I can totally see NYFCC going for Phoenix & Cotillard. Great performances.

  69. Broadwayjayb

    Best Pic: Les Miserables
    Best Actor: DDL or Omar Sy
    Best Actress: Emayatzy Cornealdi or Marion Cotillard
    Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway or Lorraine Toussaint
    Supporting Actor: David Oyelowo Or Robert DeNiro

  70. Bailey Lovell

    This has truly been an amazing year worth of movies, I gotta say. I’ve fallen in love with several of them (even had to gush to Sasha about Beasts of the Southern Wild last night because no one I know has seen it, haha!) It seems to be particularly difficult to predict winners this year because I can see it going several different ways. Hell, it’s even going to be hard to predict nominations.

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