It’s hard to believe a whole year has flown by that we were all studiously predicting The Tree of Life and Hugo to win Best Picture at the New York Film Critics only to then see that award go to The Artist. They aren’t as off base with Oscar as you might think. For instance, our trusty Nate Silver Oscar wonk, Marshall Flores has compiled nominees chart that says if you win the New York Film Critics you have a 90% chance of getting of nominated for the Best Picture Oscar. 90% if you win Best Actor, and 90% if you win animated feature.  Winning both, the percentage drops to 40%. Best Actor has a slightly better percentage, 42%.

ENTER OUR PREDICTIONS CONTEST!

To see how the winners have matched up with Oscar check out our handy dandy chart at the bottom of this post, which also features Los Angeles. Last year LA went a different way than the entire universe and chose The Descendants. But Oscar, well, he went with the status quo on down the line.

You can see that LA and NY can agree and still Oscar might go a different way but if you had to pick between the two groups, New York has a better batting average than Oscar, which means, their taste is far more aligned with the steak eaters than they probably care to admit.  Well, it’s either that or they have greater influence, you know, the whole “New York is smarter than Los Angeles” mentality.  Either way, we will be finding out on Monday morning what they pick for Best Film.  Their awards will trickle down beginning at 7am LA time.  They vote and announce, vote and announce.

You can follow us, @awardsdaily or @filmystic, for all of the breaking news.

Now on to the predictions.  Last year I ended up going with Hugo, changing my predictions from Tree of Life at the last minute. It didn’t matter because the NYFCC picked The Artist.   They usually go for the best reviewed film of the year, though not always. Let’s take a quick look at the Metacritic scores for their recent winners going back five years:

2011: The Artist – 89
2010: The Social Network – 95
2009-The Hurt Locker-94
2008-Milk 84


2007-No Country for Old Men -91
2006-United 93 – 90
2005-Brokeback Mountain-87

The lowest score was for Milk at 84. It’s still kind of a marvel that it won but it was up against Slumdog Millionaire and hell would have to freeze over before the NYFCC was going to pick Slumdog Millionaire. Still, you have to figure, whatever they pick it probably isn’t going to be below their lowest scoring film. It’s possible, of course, that they will pick something divisive that has love it/hate it reviews. It’s also possible that they will pick something that hasn’t been widely reviewed yet, like Les Miserables, Django Unchained or The Hobbit. What? Could happen!

But of the films that has been released what have been the best reviewed, above at least 84, that are in the Oscar conversation (it’s rare that they pick something totally out of the blue – Topsy-Turvy was the last time they did that back in 1999). Sadly, the state of film criticism now, really since The Social Network, has made it so that no movie ever seems to be able to top a score 90 anymore. Used to happen with frequency.

86
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Lincoln
The Master

84
Moonrise Kingdom
Looper

81
Silver Linings Playbook
The Sessions

78
Life of Pi

76
Flight

Is it any wonder studios hold movies from critics before the awards start being handed out?  2012 has been one of the best years for films in a long while but you’d never know it by the scores you see on Metacritic (and Rotten Tomatoes is far too unreliable).

To that end, I have to wonder if it isn’t down to the highest rated films in the bunch. Since I know many of these critics I know what movies they liked and didn’t like. you could take each one of them and score the reviews they had for each movie but I think that’s overkill.  I’ll just go with the overall score and leave it at that.

Predictions:
Best Film: Lincoln (alternate: Silver Linings Playbook)
Best Director: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln (alternate: Kathryn Bigelow)
Screenplay: Lincoln
Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables (Or Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings)
Supporting Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Cinematography: The Master
Documentary: The Queen of Versailles
Foreign: Amour

How about you?

The Chart

LAFCA | New York Film Critics | Oscar – Best Picture

*Also nominated for best picture

2010 The Descendants The Artist The Artist
2010 The Social Network* The Social Network* The King’s Speech
2009 The Hurt Locker The Hurt Locker The Hurt Locker
2008 Wall-E Milk* Slumdog Millionaire
2007 There Will Be Blood* No Country for Old Men+ No Country
2006 Letters from Iwo Jima* United 93  The Departed
2005 Brokeback Mountain* Brokeback Mountain* Crash
2004 Sideways* Sideways* Million Dollar Baby
2003 American Splendour Return of the King Return of the King
2002 About Schmidt Far From Heaven Chicago
2001 In the Bedroom* Mulholland Drive A Beautiful Mind
2000 Crouching Tiger* Traffic* Gladiator
1999 The Insider* Topsy-Turvy American Beauty
1998 Saving Private Ryan* Saving Private Ryan* Shakespeare in Love
1997 L.A. Confidential* L.A. Confidential* Titanic
1996 Secrets & Lies* Fargo* The English Patient
1995 Leaving Las Vegas Leaving Las Vegas Braveheart
1994 Pulp Fiction* Quiz Show* Forrest Gump
1993 Schindler’s List+ Schindler’s List+ Schindler’s List
1992 Unforgiven+ The Player Unforgiven
1991 Bugsy* The Silence of the Lambs+ Silence of the Lambs
1990 Goodfellas* Goodfellas* Dances With Wolves
1989 Do the Right Thing My Left Foot* Driving Miss Daisy
1988 Little Dorrit The Accidental Tourist* Rain Man
1987 Hope and Glory* Broadcast News* The Last Emperor
1986 Hannah and Her Sisters* Hannah and Her Sisters* Platoon
1985 Brazil Prizzi’s Honor* Out of Africa
1984 Amadeus+ Passage to India* Amadeus
1983 Terms of Endearment+ Terms of Endearment+ Terms of Endearment
1982 E.T.* Gandhi+ Gandhi
1981 Atlantic City* Reds* Chariots of Fire
1980 Raging Bull* Ordinary People+ Ordinary People
1979 Kramer Vs. Kramer+ Kramer Vs. Kramer+ Kramer Vs. Kramer
1978 Coming Home* The Deer Hunter+ The Deer Hunter
1977 Star Wars* Annie Hall+ Annie Hall
1976 Network* All the President’s Men* Rocky
1975 Dog Day Afternoon* Nashville* One Flew Over/Cukoo’s Nest
1974 Armacord Godfather II
1973 La Nuit Américaine The Sting
1972 Viskningar och rop The Godfather
1971 A Clockwork Orange* The French Connection
1970 Five Easy Pieces* Patton
1969 Z* Midnight Cowboy
1968 Lion in Winter* Oliver
1967 In the Heat of the Night+ In the Heat of the Night
1966 A Man for All Seasons* A Man for all Seasons
1965 Darling* the Sound of Music
1964 My Fair Lady+ My Fair Lady
1963 Tom Jones+ Tom Jones
1962 none Lawrence of Arabia
1961 West Side Story+ West Side Story
1960 The Apartment+ Billy Wilder, The Apartment
1959 Ben Hur+ Ben Hur
1958 THe Defiant Ones* Gigi
1957 Bridge on the River Kwai+ Bridge on the River Kwai
1956 Around the World in 80 Days+ Around/World in 80 Days
1955 Marty+ Delbert Mann, Marty
1954 On the Waterfront+ Elia Kazan, On the Waterfront
1953 From Here to Eternity+ From Here to Eternity
1952 High Noon* The Greatest Show on Earth
1951 Streetcar Named Desire* An American in Paris
1950 All About Eve+ All About Eve

Thelma Adams, US Weekly
John Anderson, Newsday
Melissa Anderson, Time Out New York
David Ansen, Newsweek
Dwight Brown, NNPA & UPSCALE
Richard Corliss, Time
Mike D’Angelo, Esquire Magazine
David Denby, New Yorker
Karen Durbin, Elle Magazine
David Edelstein, New York Magazine
David Fear, Time Out New York
Marshall Fine, Star Magazine
Owen Gleiberman, Entertainment Weekly
J. Hoberman, Village Voice
Andre O’Hehir, Salon
Stuart Klawans, The Nation
Lou Lumenick, New York Post
Joe Morgenstern, Wall Street Journal
Vincent Musetto, New York Post
Peter Rainer, Christian Science Monitor
Rex Reed, New York Observer
Joshua Rothkopf, Time Out New York
Leah Rozen, People Magazine
Andrew Sarris, New York Observer
Richard Schickel, Time
Lisa Schwarzbaum, Entertainment Weekly
Kyle Smith, New York Post
Steve Snyder, New York Sun
Dana Stevens, Slate.com
Peter Travers, Rolling Stone
Elizabeth Weitzman, New York Daily News
Armond White, NY Press
Stephen Whitty, Newhouse Newspapers
Stephanie Zacharek, Salon.com